Pakistan Air Travel Growth Among World's Fastest

IATA (International Air Transport Association) forecasts Pakistan domestic air travel will grow at least 9.5% per year, more than 2X faster than the world average annual growth rate of 4.1% over the next 20 years. The Indian and Brazilian domestic markets will grow at 6.9% and 5.4% respectively.

Source: CAA Via Express Tribune 

In a clear sign of Pakistan's rising middle class choosing air travel,  the number of domestic and international air travelers in Pakistan grew by 8% to 17.9 million in fiscal year 2013-14 compared to previous year, recording the fastest growth in passenger traffic in the last three years, according to data provided by the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) and published by Pakistan's Express Tribune newspaper. Growth in air travel is pushing new airport upgrades and new construction to handle more passengers. Examples of new or upgraded airports include Islamabad, Multan and Sialkot.

Chinese domestic air travel market will surpass the US market to claim the number 1 spot by 2030, according to figures released by by IATA. Currently the ninth largest market, India will see a total of 367 million passengers by 2034, an extra 266 million annual passengers compared to today. It will overtake the United Kingdom (148 million extra passengers, total market 337 million) to become the 3rd largest market around 2031.

Pakistan International Airlines, the nation's state-owned carrier, is continuing to lose both market share and money in the midst of explosive growth in air travel. Pakistan's private carriers Shaheen, Air Blue and Indus Air and foreign carriers like Emirates and Saudia have benefited at the expense of PIA.

"It is an exciting prospect to think that in the next 20 years more than twice as many passengers as today will have the chance to fly. Air connectivity on this scale will help transform economic opportunities for millions of people," IATA chief Tony Tyler said in his comments on the report. In 20 years' time, "we can expect aviation to be supporting around 105 million jobs and USD six trillion in GDP," he said.

Sensing the opportunity, the government of Pakistan has recently announced a new national aviation policy, NAP 2015, to attract new investments in the aviation sector. It reduces or eliminates a number taxes and duties on investments.  Announcing the policy, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said: “The present taxes and duties on the aviation sector are unjustified, and a major hurdle in the growth of travel and cargo handling through air.”

The NAP 2015 offers a bilateral “Open Skies Policy” to other countries, based on reciprocity; a level playing field for domestic and national airlines, and the liberalized aviation sector by allowing markets to determine the price, quality, frequency and range of air services options; and taxes structured and simplified in line with the best international practices to promote transportation,  spur GDP growth and create jobs.

It's good to see that the aviation sector in Pakistan is finally beginning to get the attention it deserves as a growth market to increase investment, improve service to travelers and create new jobs.

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Comment by Riaz Haq on May 29, 2017 at 11:43am

Indian Aviation Market Third Fastest Growing After Russia, China
https://sputniknews.com/business/201705081053376711-india-aviation-...

After being number one in terms of growth for almost two years, the Indian aviation market became the third fastest growing market after China and Russia overtook it in in domestic air passenger traffic between January-March this year.

NEW DELHI (Sputnik) — China's domestic aviation market grew by 15.1% in comparison to Russia's 14.8% and India's 14.6%, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said in its report.

The Chinese growth is an indication of the reversing economy growth.

"The solid upward trend in traffic is underpinned by ongoing robust growth in the country's services sector, as well as supply developments," report added.

The Indian aviation market grew at its slowest pace since September 2015.

"This is the first possible sign of reduced cash supply and wider economic uncertainty weighing on demand." This refers to the demonetization move initiated by the Narendra Modi government in November 2016 whereas 86% of the currency lost its legal tender status.

Russia posted the second fastest domestic growth in March.

"This recovery is set against an improving economic outlook as oil prices have firmed," the report analyzed.

Narendra Modi government has initiated several measures such as higher foreign investment, new aviation policy, cheaper air turbine fuel and attractive regional connectivity schemes to boost aviation in the country.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 30, 2017 at 6:16am

IATA’s Passenger Forecasts Indicate Fastest Growing Markets of the Future

http://www.unitingaviation.com/economic-development/iatas-passenger...

http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Documents/TopTenPaxMarkets_graph.pdf

As the aviation market and passenger forecasts continue on a path of growth and the demand for air travel doubles over the next twenty years, the biggest demand will be in the Asia-Pacific region.

Based on the latest figures released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the United States will remain the largest air passenger market until around 2030, when it will drop to second, behind China. These estimates indicate that the US will carry 18.3 billion more passengers and China 16.9 billion over the next 20 years.

Currently the ninth largest market, India will see a total of 367 million passenger movements by 2034, an increase of 266 million annual passengers compared to today and will overtake the United Kingdom (148 million extra passengers, total market 337 million) to become the 3rd largest market around 2031.

Reflecting a declining and aging population, Japanese air passenger numbers will grow just 1.3% per year and decline from the 4th largest market in 2014 to the 9th largest by 2033.

Germany and Spain will decline from 5th and 6th position in 2014 to be the 8th and 7th largest markets respectively. France will fall from 7th to 10th while Italy will fall out of the top 10 altogether around 2019.

Brazil will increase passenger numbers by 170 million and rise from 10th to 5th. Its total market will be 272 million passengers.

Indonesia will enter the top ten around 2020 and attain 6th place by 2029. By 2034 it will be a market of 270 million passengers.

IATA’s long-term forecasts are prepared for passenger and freight traffic and aircraft movements and their related parameters to support planning in airport, airline, air navigation and other aviation sectors.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 30, 2017 at 10:30am

Indian aviation takes off but growth weighs on airports

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/03/indian-aviation-takes-off-but-growth...

After a long rough patch, Indian aviation is finally booming, but that burst of growth is now taking a toll on the industry's infrastructure.

High operating costs, intense competition and the collapse of Kingfisher Airlines had weakened both business and civil sectors in previous years, but recently the Indian market has turned a corner into the world's fastest growing, largely thanks to supportive government policies.

India is currently the sole bright spot in Asia's aviation sector, Neil Book, CEO at the largest independent aviation firm JSSI, told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday.

Private jet sales are up and the emerging middle/upper classes have witnessed double-digit growth rates in travel, he explained.

The upper middle class made up 8 percent of the population in 2015, and is set to hit 12 percent by 2020, according to Boston Consulting Group. Meanwhile, the ultra-high net worth population--defined as those whose net worth exceeds $50 million--stood at 178,000 in 2016 and will increase 57 percent by 2021, estimates Credit Suisse.

Unlike his predecessors, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has loosened industry restrictions that are set to increase new aircraft deliveries as well as in-service and used business jets, Book continued.

Indeed, 2016 was a landmark year for Indian carriers as Modi unveiled a national civil aviation policy aimed at expanding air travel. Under the policy, domestic airlines are no longer required to log five years of domestic routes before getting an overseas permit, known as the 5/20 rule.

The government also said it would limit base fares on regional routes to 2,500 rupees ($37) per hour of travel in an attempt to make flying more viable for commercial passengers.

As strong economic fundamentals boosts air traffic, India may even overtake Japan this year to become the world's third largest domestic market behind the U.S. and China, the Centre of Aviation (CAPA) stated in a new report.

But the skies aren't entirely clear. The biggest risk to Indian aviation is the same one plaguing the national economy: creaky infrastructure.

"India faces the very real prospect of an airport capacity crisis," CAPA noted. "Slot constraints and congestion are key issues at most metro airports and are expected to remain so for the near term as new terminals and runways will take 2-3 years to develop."

The developments of new airports, such as the Navi Mumbai International Airport, have also been subject to lengthy delays, CAPA added.

Airspace is another potential concern on the supply side, with CAPA recommending that the air navigations services division of the Airports Authority of India be hived-off as a separate entity and corporatized.

If airports remain saturated, choking off air connectivity to India's centers of commerce, industry and tourism, the economic ramifications could be severe, CAPA warned.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 1, 2017 at 3:31pm

India is buying over 1,000 new planes - but can it handle them?

http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/01/news/economy/india-aircraft-orders-...

India is adding airline passengers faster than any other country, and it needs more planes to carry them: 1,080 more, to be precise.
To meet exploding demand, the South Asian nation is set to to buy 2.2 new airplanes for each of the 480 aircraft currently in service, according to a new report by the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA).
The U.S. and China are the only countries to have more pending aircraft orders, the report says.
Boeing, one of the biggest potential beneficiaries of the massive spending spree, is equally optimistic. The manufacturer predicts India will need 1,850 new planes over the next two decades. It values the orders at $265 billion.

The U.S. firm will reportedly agree in the coming weeks to sell 100 planes to Indian carrier Jet Airways. It is also a top contender to sell another 100 to the country's newest airline, Vistara.
Boeing is locked in a battle for India's skies with European rival Airbus, which already has contracts with several Indian carriers.
"We are in constant communications with the airlines in India about their current and future fleet needs," a Boeing spokesperson said Thursday, while declining to comment on individual deals.

The buying frenzy, led by budget airlines like SpiceJet and IndiGo, is not without reason. Around 220 million Indians flew last year -- an annual increase of 20% -- and the country is on track to overtake the U.K. as the world's third-largest aviation market by 2026.
But the race to capture that market is a slippery slope, and CAPA warned that airlines risk biting off more than they can chew.
"Unprecedented expansion will place immense pressure on the aviation system," the report said. "The industry currently appears to be underestimating the challenges ahead."

There are several examples in India's aviation history that serve as a cautionary tale, with Kingfisher Airlines -- the defunct carrier owned by beer baron Vijay Mallya -- being the most recent example.
National carrier Air India is also in a precarious position, and talks of offloading it into the private sector have gathered momentum in recent weeks.

Another huge challenge is a lack of infrastructure. India's aviation boom is severely threatened by the fact that only 75 of its 400 airports are currently operational -- and even the biggest hubs like Mumbai, New Delhi and Chennai are bursting at the seams.
With 700 of India's 1,080 new planes set to be delivered within the next ten years, CAPA said the country's lack of preparedness could quickly unravel the industry.
"Aircraft induction on this scale will require massive infrastructure development, skilled resources ... at a pace that has not been seen before in India," the report said. "Parking bays and runway slots will become increasingly scarce over the next few years."

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 25, 2017 at 10:34am

JCR-VIS
SECTOR UPDATE
Aviation Industry
The aviation industry is characterized by high competition
arising from soft barriers to entry, cyclicality, and
vulnerability to economic shocks...


http://www.jcrvis.com.pk/docs/Aviation201608.pdf

Based on economic and
demographic growth,
IATA has projected
intra Pakistan air
traffic to grow at 9.9%
over the next 20 years,
more than twice the
4.1% projected annual
world growth rate. This
supports the prospects
of growing revenues for
airliners 

Local Industry Structure
• There are three domestic players in Pakistan: Pakistan International Airlines
(PIA), Shaheen Air International Limited (SAI) and Air Blue Limited.
• Indus Air, which commenced flights in 2013, was forced to cease operations
in 2015 by the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) on account of failure to meet
legal minimum requirement of fleet size of 3 airworthy aircrafts.

Total passenger traffic has grown at a CAGR of 5.3% over the last 5 years and has reached 15.1m
passengers during FY15.
• Based on economic and demographic growth, IATA has projected intra Pakistan air traffic to grow
at 9.9% over the next 20 years, more than twice the 4.1% projected annual world growth rate.
This supports the prospects of growing revenues for airliners.

Market Share (Domestic Passenger Traffic)
• Domestic passenger traffic has remained relatively stagnant over
the last five years. During FY15, total number of domestic air
passengers amounted to 3.15m vis-a-vis 3.59m during FY14. The
reduction was mainly due increase in number of domestic airports
/ destinations, facilitating direct travel.
• PIA’s market share in terms of domestic passenger traffic was 51%
for FY15. However, the same has decreased from 72% during FY10
on account of mismanagement and inefficiencies. Market share
of PIA is expected to decline further in FY16 due to a two week
airline strike, which allowed other players to gain market share.
• Shaheen Air is the second largest player having 27% (FY10: 14%) market share in terms of
domestic passenger traffic followed by Air Blue at 13% (FY10: 14%).
Market Share (International Passenger Traffic)
• Total international air travel for Pakistan has grown at a CAGR
7.1% over the last five years. Total international passenger traffic
amounted to 11.9m passengers (FY14: 10.9m, FY10: 8.5m) during
FY15.
• Market share of foreign carriers during FY15 has increased to 56%
(FY14: 53%) of total international air travel in/out of Pakistan.
Based on the above mentioned reasons, along with competitive
pricing from Emirates Airlines, PIA’s market share decreased from
43% in FY10 to 23% in FY15. 


• Total passenger traffic has grown at a CAGR of 5.3% over the last 5 years and has reached 15.1m passengers during FY15. • Based on economic and demographic growth, IATA has projected intra Pakistan air traffic to grow at 9.9% over the next 20 years, more than twice the 4.1% projected annual world growth rate. This supports the prospects of growing revenues for airliners. Market Share (Domestic Passenger Traffic) • Domestic passenger traffic has remained relatively stagnant over the last five years. During FY15, total number of domestic air passengers amounted to 3.15m vis-a-vis 3.59m during FY14. The reduction was mainly due increase in number of domestic airports / destinations, facilitating direct travel. • PIA’s market share in terms of domestic passenger traffic was 51% for FY15. However, the same has decreased from 72% during FY10 on account of mismanagement and inefficiencies. Market share of PIA is expected to decline further in FY16 due to a two week airline strike, which allowed other players to gain market share. • Shaheen Air is the second largest player having 27% (FY10: 14%) market share in terms of domestic passenger traffic followed by Air Blue at 13% (FY10: 14%). Market Share (International Passenger Traffic) • Total international air travel for Pakistan has grown at a CAGR 7.1% over the last five years. Total international passenger traffic amounted to 11.9m passengers (FY14: 10.9m, FY10: 8.5m) during FY15. • Market share of foreign carriers during FY15 has increased to 56% (FY14: 53%) of total international air travel in/out of Pakistan. Based on the above mentioned reasons, along with competitive pricing from Emirates Airlines, PIA’s market share decreased from 43% in FY10 to 23% in FY15. • PIA currently has the highest number of aircrafts with fleet size totaling 43 aircrafts, comprising an average age of 12.8 years. Fleet age of SAI is currently the highest vis-à-vis peers. • In the backdrop of declining fuel prices and improved profitability & cash flows, all local players are undergoing fleet expansion

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 26, 2017 at 7:09pm

How many flights per day in Pakistan?

https://www.quora.com/How-many-flights-per-day-in-Pakistan

Tom Quetchenbach, occasional flyer
Answered Jun 4
To get a very rough idea, we can look at some data from the Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority for 2015–2016. According to this data set, there were 157,214 aircraft movements (takeoffs or landings) at Pakistan’s larger airports in 2015–2016, of which 71,227 were domestic and 85,987 were international. That’s an average of about 431 aircraft movements per day. Assuming that this is double-counting at least most the domestic flights, because what goes up must come down (that is, each domestic flight consists of two aircraft movements in Pakistan—a takeoff and a landing), dividing the domestic aircraft movements by 2 gives 98 domestic and 236 international flights per day on average.

But that is certainly an underestimate, because it doesn’t account for flights to, from, or between smaller airports, military flights, etc. It’s also not clear to me whether this includes flights by smaller, unscheduled carriers and aircraft operators other than passenger or cargo airlines.

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 27, 2017 at 8:53am

New Islamabad Airport to open by December 2017

http://pakobserver.net/new-islamabad-airport-open-december/

New Islamabad International Airport would be opened for traffic by the end of current year, Minister for Parliamentary Affairs Sheikh Aftab Ahmed told National Assembly on Thursday. Answering the question of Ms Khalida Mansoor, he said the main features of airside infrastructure includes main and emergency runways, taxiways and apron for parking of 28 aircraft, including 15 passenger boarding bridges, cargo apron for parking of 3 aircraft, state apron for parking of 2 aircraft and aircraft maintenance apron.
He said the airport has numerous allied facilities including Airfield Lighting System, Navigational Aids, Hydrant Refuelinc System, Air Traffic Control & Fire Crash Resale buildings, Radio & Radar building, Water Works, Sewerage Treatment Plant and a Cargo Complex.
Likewise, the Passenger Terminal Building has a capacity to handle 9 million passenger per annum and includes systems for baggage handling flight information & display, elevators, escalators, travelators, fire alarm and fire protection system, heating ventilation & air conditioning system, data centers, communication systems, PABX, wireless LAN and many other systems essential for modem day airport operations.
The new Islamabad International Airport would be able to handle all modern commercial aircraft including Airbus 319, 320, 321, 330, 340, 350, 380 and Boeing 737, 747, 757, 767, 777, 787 etc, he added.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 7, 2017 at 5:38pm

Air #China increases flights for #Pakistan to 7 per week - Samaa TV #CPEC

https://www.samaa.tv/economy/2017/10/air-china-increases-flights-pa...

Air China, China’s national flag carrier, has decided to increase flights on the Beijing-Islamabad-Karachi route from four to seven a week starting October 29.

Air China had launched the route between China and Pakistan in October 2016, starting with three flights per week. More than 120,000 trips on the route were recorded till September this year.

Hu Haitao, manager of Air China’s Islamabad office, said in a promotional event that the increased flights will “better serve the exchanges between China and Pakistan in trade and culture.”

Meanwhile, Zhao Lijian, ministerial counsellor of the Chinese Embassy in Islamabad, said that the development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has boosted the two countries’ ties in politics, economy and science, providing a good opportunity for Air China to extend its business in Pakistan. – APP

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 10, 2017 at 9:09pm

Avari group launches hotel in Multan

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/235983-Avari-group-launches-hotel-...

China would not let anyone dismember Pakistan or harm its territory because it was investing $ 46 billion in it for its survival, a leading businessman said on Tuesday. 

“China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) would be a game changer for Pakistan which would bring prosperity, development and employment for thousands of people,” Byram Dinshawji Avari, chairman Avari Group of Companies told a press conference after the inauguration of Avari Xpress Boutique in Multan. 

“I prefer to invest Pakistan and that’s why I am launching hotels of world-class in Multan, Sargodha, Faisalabad, Islamabad, and other cities. All Pakistanis should invest in Pakistan and they should not look to other countries.” 

Avari said he did not agree with those economists who were expressing their reservations on Chinese investment. “China would neither prove to be an East India Company nor capture our country,” he said. 

He added that Gwadar port would help boost international trade with China and central Asian states.  “When a motorway can help boost country's economy, business, and 
prosperity, then why China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a major project of Rs4600 billion will not prove to be a game-changer,” Avari asserted. 

He said that investors should come forward to raise the graph of Pakistan in economy.  Speaking on the occasion, the former Punajb minister Jalaluddin Roomi hoped that trade and economic activities would increase with the establishment of hotels of international repute in Multan. “A special economic zone should be developed in Multan under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project,” Roomi demanded.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 18, 2017 at 10:52am

TRAVEL & TOURISM
ECONOMIC IMPACT 2017
PAKISTAN

World Travel and Tourism Council WTTC

The direct contribution of Travel & Tourism to GDP was PKR793.0bn (USD7.6bn), 2.7% of total
The total contribution of Travel & Tourism to GDP was PKR2,033.5bn (USD19.4bn), 6.9% of GDP in 2016, and is
forecast to rise by 6.0% in 2017, and to rise by 5.8% pa to PKR3,793.0bn (USD36.1bn), 7.2% of GDP in 2027.
In 2016 Travel & Tourism directly supported 1,337,500 jobs (2.3% of total employment). This is expected to rise
by 2.3% in 2017 and rise by 2.5% pa to 1,757,000 jobs (2.3% of total employment) in 2027.
In 2016, the total contribution of Travel & Tourism to employment, including jobs indirectly supported by
Visitor exports generated PKR93.8bn (USD893.8mn), 3.6% of total exports in 2016. This is
Travel & Tourism investment in 2016 was PKR375.2bn, 9.3% of total investment (USD3.6bn). It should rise by
8.1% in 2017, and rise by 8.0% pa over the next ten years to PKR872.0bn (USD8.3bn) in 2027, 11.4% of total. 

https://www.wttc.org/-/media/files/reports/economic-impact-research...

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