Comment by Riaz Haq on September 5, 2020 at 10:39pm

Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2020 Annual Report to Congress A Report to Congress Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2000, as Amended

https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-C...

PLA Overseas Basing and Access > The PRC is seeking to establish a more robust overseas logistics and basing infrastructure to allow the PLA to project and sustain military power at greater distances. > Beyond its current base in Djibouti, the PRC is very likely already considering and planning for additional overseas military logistics facilities to support naval, air, and ground forces. The PRC has likely considered locations for PLA military logistics facilities in Myanmar, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, United Arab Emirates, Kenya, Seychelles, Tanzania, Angola, and Tajikistan. The PRC and Cambodia have publicly denied having signed an agreement to provide the PLAN with access to Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base.

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Space Systems Department. The SSF Space Systems Department is responsible for nearly all PLA space operations, including: space launch and support; space surveillance; space information support; space telemetry, tracking, and control; and space warfare. The Space Systems Department seeks to resolve the bureaucratic struggles that existed over the PLA space mission, as elements of the mission were previously dispersed across several national and service-subordinate organizations. The PRC officially designated space as a new domain of warfare in its 2015 defense white paper, and expects space to play an important role in future conflicts by enabling long-range precision strikes and in denying other militaries the use of overhead command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems. The Space System Department operates at least eight bases, including those whose core missions are the launch, tracking R&D, and operation of the satellites vital to China’s overhead C4ISR architecture. The SSF runs tracking, telemetry, and command stations in Namibia, Pakistan, and Argentina. The SSF also has a handful of Yuan Wang space support ships to track satellite and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launches.

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In support of its national strategy, the PRC pursues a range of goals through OBOR to include strengthening its territorial integrity, increasing its energy security, and expanding its international influence. Given the Party views the PRC’s security and development interests as complementary, the PRC leverages OBOR to invest in projects along China’s western and southern periphery to improve stability and diminish threats along its borders. Similarly, OBOR projects associated with pipelines and port construction in Pakistan intend to decrease China’s reliance on transporting energy resources through strategic choke points, such as the Strait of Malacca.

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Beyond its current base in Djibouti, the PRC is very likely already considering and planning for additional overseas military logistics facilities to support naval, air, and ground forces. The PRC has likely considered locations for PLA military logistics facilities in Myanmar, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, United Arab Emirates, Kenya, Seychelles, Tanzania, Angola, and Tajikistan. The PRC and Cambodia have publicly denied having signed an agreement to provide the PLAN with access to Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base.

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 7, 2020 at 10:55am

Joe Biden’s China Journey
As a United States senator, he spoke of transforming China through trade. As a presidential candidate two decades later, he denounces it as a “dictatorship.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/06/us/politics/biden-china.html

Mr. Biden, leading his first overseas trip as the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, was also there in Beidaihe in 2001 to help usher in an important era in America’s relationship with China — the building of a commercial link that would allow the Communist nation entry into the World Trade Organization.

“The United States welcomes the emergence of a prosperous, integrated China on the global stage, because we expect this is going to be a China that plays by the rules,” Mr. Biden told Mr. Jiang, recalled Frank Jannuzi, the Senate aide who organized the trip and took notes at Mr. Biden’s side.

The senator traveled days later to a dirt-road village near the Great Wall. Seven thousand miles from Delaware, his adopted home state, Mr. Biden glad-handed bemused locals like a candidate, even taking holy communion from a Roman Catholic priest. He returned to Washington seeing more promise than peril, offering reporters the same message he had delivered to Chinese leaders: The United States welcomed China’s emergence “as a great power, because great powers adhere to international norms in the areas of nonproliferation, human rights and trade.”

Two decades later, China has emerged as a great power — and, in the eyes of many Americans, a dangerous rival. Republicans and Democrats say it has exploited the global integration that Mr. Biden and many other officials supported.

The 2020 election has been partly defined by what much of Washington sees as a kind of new Cold War. And as Mr. Biden faces fierce campaign attacks from President Trump, his language on China points to a drastic shift in thinking.

Mr. Biden calls Xi Jinping, the authoritarian Chinese leader, a “thug.” He has threatened, if elected, to impose “swift economic sanctions” if China tries to silence American citizens and companies. “The United States does need to get tough on China,” he wrote this winter in an essay in Foreign Affairs. Mr. Biden now sees the country as a top strategic challenge, according to interviews with more than a dozen of his advisers and foreign policy associates, and his own words.

Mr. Biden’s 20-year road from wary optimism to condemnation — while still straining for some cooperation — is emblematic of the arc of U.S.-China relations, which have deteriorated to an unstable, potentially explosive state. But as Mr. Trump denounces what he describes as failures by the Washington establishment on China, Mr. Biden, an avatar of that establishment, is not recanting his past enthusiasm for engagement.

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“There’s a question I’ve been meaning to ask students of China,” Mr. Biden said, according to Mr. Jannuzi, who is now the president of the Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation. “The students of Tiananmen Square, were they patriots or traitors to the People’s Republic of China?”

There was silence. Then, a physics student, a scholar of Newton and Einstein, stood up.

“The students of Tiananmen were heroes of the People’s Republic of China,” he said. “Senator, change will come to China. But it will be we, the students of Newton, who determine the pace and the direction of that change, and not you or anyone else working on the banks of the Potomac.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 19, 2020 at 11:57am

#Russia’s Lavrov sketches out post-Western world order. As the #US retreats from its role in the world in the wake of the global war on terror, it is being challenged by Russia, #China, #Iran and #Turkey. #Trump #Afghanistan #Iraq #Syria - Jerusalem Post


https://www.jpost.com/international/russias-lavrov-sketches-out-pos...

Russia and China will no longer play by Western rules, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov suggested in an interview, according to Russia’s Tass. According to the short, but important statement, the Russian statesman said that "I was reading our political scientists who are well known in the West. The following idea is becoming louder and more pronounced: it is time to stop applying Western metrics to our actions and stop trying to be liked by the West at any cost.”

The statement is part of a growing attempt by Russia and other countries to move beyond the post-Cold War liberal rules-based international order that US President George H.W Bush pushed for This “new world order” was supposed to include values such as international law and also democratization, as well as US hegemony.
It included humanitarian intervention and prevention of aggression by states against each other, at least in its ideal. However the concepts put forward by Bush and then the Clinton administration have rapidly eroded in the last two decades. As the US retreats from its role in the world in the wake of the global war on terror, it is being challenged by Russia, China, Iran and Turkey. This has led to more conflicts in place bordering areas like the Ukraine or Caucuses, Syria and the potentially over islands off China.

“These are very reputable people and a rather serious statement. It is clear to me that the West is wittingly or unwittingly pushing us towards this analysis. It is likely to be done unwittingly," Lavrov noted. "However, it is a big mistake to think that Russia will play by Western rules in any case, just like thinking this in terms of China.". China held a military drill this week as a US envoy visited Taiwan.

The fact that Russia’s TASS sought to highlight Lavrov’s discussion shows how important it is for Russia. Russia is openly saying it will no longer “play” by Western rules. That means a greater coordination of work between Russia, Iran, Turkey and China. It likely will mean arms sales by China and Russia and maybe even Turkey to Iran. Russia is already selling its S-400s to Turkey.

Turkey has sent Syrian mercenaries to Libya and along with China and Russia is moving forces and resources to Africa. Iran has its tentacles in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. This illustrates how the new world order that is being pushed by Russia, a world that is multi-polar, which has more regional powers and less US hegemony, is being remade. India, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Japan and other states will play a key role as well. However the importance of the Russia-China challenge to the US has been noted by US national defense strategists who see Russia and China as the greatest challenge.

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 21, 2020 at 5:07pm

One hard truth that Indians have to contend with is that America has also had difficulty treating India with respect. In recent years, many Americans have proudly proclaimed that America and India have a friendship built on a strong foundation since both are fellow democracies. This argument cuts little ice among thoughtful Indians since most of them remember well that America stood shoulder to shoulder with communist China and dictatorial Pakistan for several decades during the Cold War and beyond. One of the critical weaknesses of Washington, DC, is that the administrations and their officials change regularly; they have poor memories. Many Americans, like many of their fellow Westerners, have a higher degree of respect for Chinese civilization than they do of Indian civilization. Many Americans will deny it because it is an uncomfortable truth. They will proclaim loudly that they respect India as much as they respect China. But you cannot feign respect: it is best demonstrated not through words but in deeds. Every country in the world demonstrates its respect for another country by the amount of time and attention it gives to that country, and America has devoted far more time and attention to China than it has to India. If America wants to develop a close long-term relationship with India over the long run, it needs to confront the deep roots of its relative lack of respect for India. Is it a result of a perception among Western scholars that Indian civilization is not as impressive as Chinese civilization? Is this a result of the fact that the American media has broadcast a steady stream of stories about poverty in India, so much so that just as Americans naturally associate Africa with poverty, they may also do the same with India? Or were America’s condescending cultural attacks a result of romantic fascination with British dramas set in British India, with Indian culture presented as inferior? Unless Americans reflect on the roots of their lack of respect for India, they will fail to develop a strong partnership of equals. The tragedy of this failure is that such a partnership would bring massive benefits to both countries. As the American century gradually fades away in the coming decades and an Asian century emerges in force, America will need to build bridges to engage the new self-confident Asian societies. Clearly, China cannot provide America a bridge to the new Asia as China will be perceived as the main challenger to America for the coming decades. However, India can, as there are several common links to build upon. The first is the exceptional success of the Indian community in America. America’s free enterprise system is, in many ways, the most competitive market in the world for human achievement as the best minds from nations all over the world migrate to  America. The pool of migrants in America represents the highest achieving segments of societies around the world. When the best brains of the world compete on a level playing field, which ethnic community does the best? The data show it is the ethnic Indian community in America.


Mahbubani, Kishore. Has China Won? (pp. 239-241). PublicAffairs. Kindle Edition. 

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 25, 2020 at 1:51pm

Kishore Mahbubani on China; Tillerson (via Bob Woodward) on Russia

Tillerson added, “Putin feels like we treat Russia like a banana republic.” The year before, Tillerson said he had been tooling around the Black Sea on Putin’s yacht. “And he said to me, ‘You need to remember we’re a nuclear power. As powerful as you. You Americans think you won the Cold War. You did not win the Cold War. We never fought that war. We could have, but we didn’t.’ And that put chills up my spine.” There is a significant opportunity here, Tillerson said. “When Putin said the breakup of the Soviet Union was the greatest tragedy of the twentieth century, it wasn’t because he loved communism. It was because Russia’s stature had been destroyed. “Anybody who tries to think about Russia in terms of the Soviet era doesn’t know a thing about Russia. The seventy years of Soviet rule was a speed bump in Russian history and it had no lasting effect. “If you want to understand Russia, they haven’t changed much culturally in 1,000 years. They are the most fatalistic people on the face of the earth, which is why they’re willing to live under lousy leaders. If you ask them about it, they’d say they don’t like it, but they’d say ‘Das Russia’—‘That’s Russia.’ They’d shrug their shoulders. I would talk to my Russian employees about it. Only one time did Russians rise up in revolution. And that didn’t turn out so well. So they look back on that and they say, Don’t do that again.”


Woodward, Bob. Rage (pp. 9-10). Simon & Schuster. Kindle Edition.

For over two hundred years, Western civilization vastly outperformed the rest of the world, allowing it to overturn the historical precedent; from the year 1 to 1820, China and India were always the largest civilizations in terms of economic strength. The past two hundred years have therefore been an aberration. One reason the West can no longer dominate the world is that the rest have learned so much from the West. They have imbibed many Western best practices in economics, politics, science, and technology. As a result, while many parts of Western civilization (especially Europe) seem exhausted, lacking drive and energy, other civilizations are just getting revved up. In this respect, human civilizations are like other living organisms. They have life cycles. Chinese civilization has had many ups and downs. It should be no surprise that it is now returning in strength.

Having survived over two thousand years, China has developed strong civilizational sinews. Professor Wang Gungwu has observed that while the world has had many ancient civilizations, the only ancient civilization to fall down four times and rise again is China. As a civilization, China is remarkably resilient. The Chinese people are also remarkably talented. As the Chinese look back over two thousand years, they are acutely aware that the past thirty years under CCP rule have been the best thirty years that Chinese civilization has experienced since China was united by Qin Shi Huang in 221 BCE. For most of the past two thousand years, the large pool of brainpower available in the Chinese population was not developed under the imperial Chinese system. During the past thirty years, for the first time in Chinese history, it has been tapped on a massive scale. Cultural confidence, which the Chinese have had for centuries, combined with what China has learned from the West have given Chinese civilization a special vigor today. A Chinese American psychology researcher from Stanford University, Jean Fan, has observed after visiting China in 2019 that “China is changing in a deep and visceral way, and it is changing fast, in a way that is almost incomprehensible without seeing it in person. In contrast to America’s stagnation, China’s culture, self-concept, and morale are being transformed at a rapid pace—mostly for the better.”*

Mahbubani, Kishore. Has China Won? (pp. 11-12). PublicAffairs. Kindle Edition.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 19, 2020 at 7:14am

#IMF: #China is world's biggest #economy. IMF's "2020 World Outlook" shows that China’s #GDP($24.2 trillion) is one-sixth larger than #America’s($20.8 trillion). China has replaced #US as the largest trading partner of nearly every major nation. #COVID19 https://nationalinterest.org/feature/china-now-world%E2%80%99s-larg...

Explaining its decision to switch from MER to PPP in its annual assessment of national economies—which is available online in the CIA Factbook—the CIA noted that “GDP at the official exchange rate [MER GDP] substantially understates the actual level of China's output vis-a-vis the rest of the world.” Thus, in its view, PPP “provides the best available starting point for comparisons of economic strength and wellbeing between economies.” The IMF adds further that “market rates are more volatile and using them can produce quite large swings in aggregate measures of growth even when growth rates in individual countries are stable.”


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So what? If this were simply a contest for bragging rights, picking a measuring rod that allows Americans to feel better about ourselves has a certain logic. But in the real world, a nation’s GDP is the substructure of its global power. Over the past generation, as China has created the largest economy in the world, it has displaced the U.S. as the largest trading partner of nearly every major nation (just last year adding Germany to that list). It has become the manufacturing workshop of the world, including for face masks and other protective equipment as we are now seeing in the coronavirus crisis. Thanks to double-digit growth in its defense budget, its military forces have steadily shifted the seesaw of power in potential regional conflicts, in particular over Taiwan. And this year, China will surpass the U.S. in R&D spending, leading the U.S. to a “tipping point in R&D” and future competitiveness.

For the U.S. to meet the China challenge, Americans must wake up to the ugly fact: China has already passed us in the race to be the No. 1 economy in the world. Moreover, in 2020, China will be the only major economy that records positive growth: the only economy that will be bigger at the end of the year than it was when the year began. The consequences for American security are not difficult to predict. Diverging economic growth will embolden an ever more assertive geopolitical player on the world stage.

Graham T. Allison is the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at the Harvard Kennedy School. He is the former director of Harvard’s Belfer Center and the author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 19, 2020 at 6:47pm

Is #Australia shooting itself in the foot by joining the #Quad military exercise at #Malabar, #India? Australia's dependence on China has never been so starkly illustrated. #China #Japan #US https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/australia-s-dependence-on-china-h...


The budget forecasts tell the tale. Eight of Australia’s top 10 trading partners are expected to see a contraction in economic growth in 2020. China and Taiwan are the only exceptions.

The global economic massacre is laid out line by line in budget paper number one. India and Europe down by 9 per cent, Japan almost 6 per cent, the US 5.5 per cent. The world down 4.5 per cent. China? Up by 1.75 per cent.

Australia's dependence on China for economic growth is well known, but never has it been so starkly illustrated. The country where the coronavirus was first detected is now the sole major economy showing genuine signs of recovery. For that it needs Australian iron ore to make steel and build infrastructure.

The budget assumes a price of $US55 a tonne. It's currently at $US120, driven by supply restrictions on Brazilian iron ore and rampaging demand from China. The difference between the two prices? $47 billion, or almost twice the cost of the government's full personal income tax cut package between 2020 and 2022.

It's not just mining. It's food and merchandise, students and tourists. On all counts, China is Australia's number one market. Australia has been very good at doing business with China and very bad at diversifying.

That leaves it exposed. For all the federal budget's domestic stimulus, it is notable how little it focuses on initiatives outside Australia's borders.

The third largest item in the Foreign Affairs expenditure is $25 million to make sure prospective arrangements between state and territory governments and foreign governments (read: China) are consistent with Australian foreign policy. That is a domestic initiative delivered through a globally focused department.

Comment by Riaz Haq on November 2, 2020 at 9:50am

#Pakistan alarmed by #US-#India #Intelligence sharing pact that bolsters #Delhi's position in #Kashmir against #Islamabad & #Beijing. Some experts, however, don't believe the deal will pose an immediate security threat to Pakistan or #China. #Modi #BECA https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Pakistan-a...

Pakistan is alarmed by the U.S.-India intelligence pact signed during a visit by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Mark Esper to India last week. The agreement could give India an advantage in any future conflict over Kashmir, a region both Delhi and Islamabad claim.

"Pakistan has been consistently highlighting the threats posed to strategic stability in South Asia as a result of the provision of advanced military hardware, technologies and knowledge to India," read the statement issued by the Foreign Office of Pakistan immediately after the signing of the agreement.

The statement further said that India's acquisition of armaments and expansion of nuclear forces have serious repercussions for peace and stability in South Asia.

The agreement -- Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-Spatial Cooperation -- was signed last Tuesday when the U.S. emissaries attended the third "two plus two" ministerial dialogue with India's External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Defense Minister Rajnath Singh.

Under the pact, the U.S. will share with India advanced satellite and topographical data for long-range navigation and missile targeting. BECA will give India's armed forces access to a wealth of data from U.S. military satellites.

Defense cooperation between New Delhi and Washington has increased. The U.S. is the second-largest exporter of military equipment to India since 2000.

"Pakistan has to be vigilant on this development [because] it has implications for the [China-Pakistan Economic Corridor] and regional security," Anwaar ul Haq Kakar, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of Senate of Pakistan told Nikkei Asia.

Kakar added that this step will further cause the regional balance of power to shift, pushing Pakistan toward China.

Observers believe the BECA will considerably enhance India's defense capabilities.

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Some, however, do not believe the agreement will pose an immediate security threat to Pakistan or China.

"[Even] equipped with American intelligence under the BECA, I doubt that India would move on Pakistan, let alone the militarily powerful China," said James M. Dorsey, senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore. "In case if there is a conflict between India and Pakistan in the future, then it will definitely impact CPEC projects," he told Nikkei. "However, I doubt that America will take sides in such a conflict and it will try to de-escalate the tensions instead."

Kugelman says there have been a lot of threats from New Delhi, but he thinks they are more talk than anything else.

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Both the US State and Defense departments have added footnotes to the transcripts they released on Rajnath Singh’s remarks at 2+2. The State Department has also updated the text.

https://theprint.in/defence/here-is-why-us-changed-rajnath-singhs-s...

On 27 October, the US had issued a statement quoting Singh as referring to “reckless aggression on India’s northern borders” — seen as a reference to China. However, the US State Department has since updated the statement, with the fresh version quoting Singh as simply referring to “challenges” India is facing. The latter is the accurate translation of what Singh said.

Comment by Riaz Haq on November 5, 2020 at 6:48am

#Russian troops arrive in #Pakistan for joint #military exercise.The joint military exercise "Druzhba 5" between Pakistan and #Russia has been held annually since 2016. The exercises include aspects of counter terrorism and special operations. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-11/05/c_139494082.htm

A contingent of "Russian Federation Special Forces" has arrived in Pakistan for a two-week-long joint military exercise, the Pakistani army said on Thursday.

An army statement said the joint exercise titled "Druzhba 5" is aimed at sharing both armies' experiences in counter-terrorism.

The statement from the army's media wing Inter-Services Public Relations said that sky diving and hostage rescue operations will be the highlights of the exercise.

The joint military exercise "Druzhba 5" between Pakistan and Russia has been held annually since 2016. The exercises include aspects of counter terrorism and special operations.

Earlier in September, a contingent of the Pakistani armed forces participated in the opening ceremony of the multinational military exercise titled "Kavkaz-2020" in Astrakhan, Russia.

Comment by Riaz Haq on January 7, 2021 at 7:39am

Would #Pakistan buy advanced S-400 air defense system if #India backs out under #US pressure? #Russian FM Sergei Lavrov has said India’s entry in US-led QUAD is ‘devious’ as it has every potential to undermine #NewDelhi’s relationship with #Moscow.- https://eurasiantimes.com/if-us-presses-india-out-of-russian-s-400-...

Notwithstanding the reservations of its old friend, India has gone ahead with QUAD, signing the BECA agreement with the US, to take on China even if at the antagonism of Russia.

Russia knows the long-term implications of India’s entry into the QUAD, and accordingly, the first sign of its disenchantment came when it canceled the Indo-Russian summit on December 23, 2020, for the first time in two decades.

The whole situation now, obviously, boils down to India’s efforts to procure the best defense system, S-400, from Russia which will definitely invite ire from Washington.

Everything is now moving on the expected lines as on January 5, 2021, The Indian Express reported that ‘India’s S-400 deal with Russia may trigger US sanctions’. India had in 2018 gone ahead with the signing of a $5 billion deal with Russia despite the US President Trump’s warning.

According to the report, ‘The (US) Congressional Research Service (CRS) – an independent and bipartisan research wing of US Congress – in its latest report to Congress, said India is ‘eager for more technology-sharing and co-production initiatives, while the United States urges more reforms in India’s defense offsets policy and higher Foreign Direct Investment caps in its defense sector’.”

The CRS report went on to warn that “India’s multi-billion-dollar deal to purchase the Russian-made S-400 air defense system may trigger US sanctions on India under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act”.

What is S-400?
‘The S-400 is an integrated air defense system featuring radars, command and control equipment, and four types of surface-to-air missiles. The four types of missiles used by the S-400 have ranges varying from 40km to 400km and can shoot down aircraft, drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.

The Indian Air Force has repeatedly referred to the S-400 as being a game-changer, as reported by The Week on June 13, 2020.

It is not clear what difficulties the deal will bring for India with the country caught between a rock and a hard place in choosing between the best air defense system in the world, the S-400, and its crucial military partner, the US. Recently, ruling Party BJP MP Subramanian Swamy had openly sought ‘not to buy’ S-400 as it is made of ‘Chinese electronics’, creating more troubles for the government.

Russia has already spelled its reservations as it considers India to have become a component of the QUAD strategy, which aims to pin down China, something apparently unacceptable for Russia. India has sought an early delivery of the air defense system and Russia, understandably, is slated to deliver it in December 2021, but owing to the growing chasm between the two countries, the delivery might get further delayed.

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