Will Pakistan Take Advantage of Historic Low LNG Prices?

LNG spot prices hit a new low of $4 per mmBTU as the supply continues to significantly outstrip demand. It's creating opportunities for Pakistan to get access to large supply of cheap fuel for its power generation.

With softening demand from China and 130 million tons per year (mmpta) of additional LNG supply set to reach market over the next five years, gas research firm Wood Mackenzie sees continuing downward pressure on global LNG spot prices.

LNG Price History Source: WSJ



“The entire industry is worried because it is hard to tell when China’s demand will pick up again,” said an LNG strategist at a Malaysian energy company who attended the Wood Mackenzie conference in Singapore, according to Wall Street Journal. “Rising demand from smaller countries such as Pakistan, Egypt and Bangladesh is not enough to offset the declining demand from north Asia.”

As recently as two years ago, LNG shipped to big North Asian countries like Japan and Korea sold at around $15 to $16 a million British thermal units. This month, the price has already hit $6.65 a million BTUs, down 12% from September, according to research firm Energy Aspects. It expects prices to fall further in Asia next year, to under $6 per million BTUs, as a wave of new gas supply in countries from the U.S. to Angola to Australia comes on line, according to Wall Street Journal.

Petronet LNG Ltd, India’s biggest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), is saving so much money buying the commodity from the spot market that it’s willing to risk penalties for breaking long-term contracts with Qatar.

This is a great opportunity for Pakistan to take advantage of historically low LNG prices to alleviate its severe load-shedding of gas and electricity.  Recently, Pakistan has launched its first LNG import terminal in Karachi and started receiving shipments from Qatar.  Pakistan has also signed a $2 billion deal with Russians to build a north-south pipeline from Gwadar to Lahore. But the country needs to rapidly build up capacity to handle imports and distribution of significant volumes of LNG needed to resolve its acute long-running energy crisis.

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Comment by Riaz Haq on February 26, 2021 at 6:52pm

#Pakistan signs 10-year #LNG contract with #Qatar at 10.2% of the Brent, which would be effective from January 2022. Current contract, priced at 13.37% of the Brent, is 30% higher. Pak expects to save $3 billion over 10 years. https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2021/02/26/pakistan-to-save-aro...

Special Assistant to Prime Minister (SAPM) on Petroleum Nadeem Babar said on Friday that Pakistan would save an amount of around $3 billion in the import of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) under a 10-year agreement signed with Qatar at 10.2pc of the Brent, which would be effective from January 2022.

“Today we have signed a very important agreement with Qatar. Our earlier agreement [signed by the PML-N government] with Qatar was of 13.37pc of the Brent, under which an average five cargoes arrive every month. But, we [the PTI government] gave inked the deal at 10.2pc of the Brent,” he said while sharing with media details of the agreement, which was signed in the presence of Prime Minister Imran Khan at the PM House.

This contract, he said, was “almost 31pc lower” as compared to the previous agreement signed by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government.

“It is a 10-year agreement and the price can be renegotiated after a period of four years,” he informed, adding that the existing agreement was of 15 years, under which the price was fixed for a period of 10 years.

Comment by Riaz Haq on February 27, 2021 at 6:12pm

Qatar Petroleum (QP) has signed a deal to supply up to 3 million tonnes per year of LNG to Pakistan.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/asia/lng/303016/qatar-pakista...


The deal will run for 10 years, QP said, starting in 2022 and running to the end of 2031. The company signed the agreement with Pakistan State Oil Company (PSO).

The companies signed the sale and purchase agreement (SPA) in Islamabad. QP president and CEO Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi and PSO managing director and CEO Syed Taha struck the deal. Also attending the ceremony was Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan and Qatari ambassador to Pakistan Sheikh Saoud bin Abdulrahman Al Thani.

Al-Kaabi welcomed the deal, saying QP would “continue our contributions towards meeting Pakistan’s increasing energy demand”, describing the market as strategically important.

“This agreement further extends Qatar’s long standing LNG supply relationship with Pakistan and highlights our commitment to meeting Pakistan’s LNG requirements. We are confident that the exceptional reliability of our LNG supplies will provide PSO with the required flexibility and supply security to fuel Pakistan’s impressive growth.”

Pakistan has the potential to be “one of the world’s fastest growing LNG markets”, Al-Kaabi said. The country has two import terminals, both using floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs).

Rising demand
The country’s special assistant on petroleum Nadeem Babar said Pakistan would engage with Qatar further on petrochemical supplies.

The official said the new contract had been reached at lower prices and would save Pakistan $3 billion over 10 years, according to Dispatch News Desk.

Qatargas signed a 3.75mn tpy deal with PSO in 2016. This was to start that year and run for 15 years.

Pakistan began importing LNG in 2015. Demand tends to peak in summer months as temperatures increase.

The International Islamic Trade Finance Corp. (ITFC) agreed to provide $1.1 billion in financing to Pakistani this week. The cash will go to helping cover imports of “essential commodities such as crude oil, refined petroleum products, LNG and urea”, it said.

LNG spot prices fell in 2020 amid lower demand. They then spiked in January this year as a combination of factors triggered a supply crunch. This price spike – reaching close to $40 per mmBtu – helps make the case for longer-term contracts.

QP also recently signed a deal with Vitol to supply 1.25mn tpy of LNG to Bangladesh.

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 10, 2021 at 8:03am

#LNG prices surge as energy transition-driven demand outstrips supply. It’s especially bad news for poorer nations like #Pakistan and #Bangladesh that reworked entire #energy policies on the premise that the fuel’s price would be lower for longer. http://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/8/6/natural-gas-prices-surge-as-e...

The era of cheap natural gas is over, giving way to an age of far more costly energy that will create ripple effects across the global economy.

Natural gas, used to generate electricity and heat homes, was abundant and cheap during much of the last decade amid a boom in supply from the U.S. to Australia. That came crashing to a halt this year as demand drastically outpaced new supply. European gas rates reached a record this week, while deliveries of the liquefied fuel to Asia are near an all-time high for this time of year.

With few other options, the world is expected to depend more on cleaner-burning gas as a replacement to coal to help achieve near-term green goals. But as producers curb investments into new supply amid calls from climate-conscious investors and governments, it is becoming apparent that expensive energy is here to stay.


Already, there are signs around the world that supplies will fall short:

Beyond a massive expansion in Qatar, few new LNG export projects have been cleared since the start of 2020.
End-users have been less willing to take equity stakes in upstream projects or sign long-term supply deals due to uncertainty surrounding government-led efforts to reduce emissions.
U.S. shale drillers aren’t immediately responding with additional production, as they’re under pressure from investors to curb spending and avoid creating another glut, while key pipeline projects struggle to move forward.
“No matter how you look at it, gas will be the transition fuel for decades to come as major economies are committed to reach carbon emission targets,” said Chris Weafer, chief executive officer of Moscow-based Macro-Advisory Ltd. “The price of gas is more likely to stay elevated over the medium-term and to rise over the longer-term.”

Strong Consumption

By 2024, demand is forecast to jump 7% from pre-Covid-19 levels, according to the International Energy Agency. Looking further out, the appetite for liquefied natural gas is expected to grow by 3.4% a year through 2035, outpacing other fossil fuels, according to an analysis by McKinsey & Co.

Surging natural gas prices means it will be costlier to power factories or produce petrochemicals, rattling every corner of the global economy and fueling inflation fears. For consumers, it will bring higher monthly energy and gas utility bills. It will cost more to power a washing machine, take a hot shower and cook dinner.

It’s especially bad news for poorer nations like Pakistan and Bangladesh that reworked entire energy policies on the premise that the fuel’s price would be lower for longer.

European natural gas rates have surged more than 1,000% from a record low in May 2020 due to the pandemic, while Asian LNG rates have jumped about six-fold in the last year. Even prices in the U.S., where the shale revolution has significantly boosted production of the fuel, have rallied to the highest level for this time of year in a decade.

While there are several one-off factors that have pushed gas prices higher, such as supply disruptions, the global economic rebound and a lull in new LNG export plants, there is a growing consensus that the world is facing a structural shift, driven by the energy transition.

A decade ago, the IEA declared that the world may be entering a “golden age” of natural gas demand growth due to historic expansion of low-cost supply. Indeed, between 2009 and 2020, global gas consumption surged by 30% as utilities and industries took advantage of booming output.

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 18, 2021 at 1:27pm

Global #energy prices surging! #Pakistan & #Bangladesh are among developing nations in #Asia that can no longer afford to pay soaring #LNG prices, raising the risk of power rationing or the burning of dirtier alternatives this winter. #gas #inflation https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-01/developing-asia-...

Bangladesh’s state-run Petrobangla plans to stop buying spot LNG cargoes for the rest of the year after a quadrupling of prices over the past year to a seasonal high. Pakistan has repeatedly canceled and reissued LNG purchase tenders in an effort to get better offer prices, without avail.

The evolution marks a stark turnaround after developing Asia helped drive a surge in trading of the super-chilled fuel and built LNG import strategies on the premise that spot shipments would be abundant and cheap. Unlike richer counterparts in the region that can pass on this year’s historic price rally to end-users, some governments may need to rethink LNG procurement strategies and reduce exposure to the volatile spot market, switch to dirtier fuels such as coal or oil or even curb electricity production.

“With spot prices so high and with relatively low development, these countries may not be able to afford the current sky-high prices for gas on the global market,” said Ron Smith, senior oil and gas analyst at BCS Global Markets. A return of power rationing this winter “seems quite possible” for Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Nations in South Asia have the most potential to take advantage of cheaper fuel oil to offset the rise in spot LNG prices through this winter, said Felix Booth, head of LNG at energy-intelligence company Vortexa.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 24, 2022 at 6:39am

#Pakistan #LNG gets single bid from #Qatar #Energy at $39.80/mmbtu for July cargo, highest ever. Pakistan has increased reliance on LNG for #electricity generation, but is facing widespread power outages as sup-ply of LNG remains unreliable & #expensive.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-pakistan-lng-gets-single-155843872...

ISLAMABAD, June 23 (Reuters) - Pakistan LNG Ltd (PLL) received a single bid from Qatar Energy at $39.80/mmbtu for an LNG import tender seeking a cargo in the July 30-31 window, an industry source said on Thursday.

The source said no bids were received for three other deliveries sought in July, which was later confirmed by documents uploaded on PLL's website.

The source added that PLL had decided not to pick up the costly bid.

A spokesman for Pakistan's power ministry, under which PLL operates, did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Pakistan had sought four cargoes from international suppliers during the windows of July 3-4, 8-9, 25-26 and 30-31.

Pakistan unsuccessfully tapped the spot market earlier this month for an extra July cargo, with two tenders not returning valid bids.

In recent years Pakistan has increased reliance on LNG for electricity generation, but is facing widespread power outages as procurement of the chilled fuel remains unreliable and expensive.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 9, 2023 at 4:12pm

10,707 km pipelines being laid to reinforce gas transmission network in Pakistan

https://pakobserver.net/10707-km-pipelines-being-laid-to-reinforce-...

The two state-owned companies, SNGPL and SSGC, are in process of laying almost 10,707-kilometer pipelines to reinforce gas transmission networks in their operational areas across the country during the current fiscal year.


The Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) would place 9,605 kilometers and Sui Southern Gas Company (SSGC) 1,102 transmission and distribution pipelines in their respective areas during 2022-23 aimed at improving the efficiency of the commodity supply to domestic, industrial, and commercial consumers.

The companies would collectively spend funds amounting to Rs 113.899 billion on the upgradation of the gas transmission and distribution system. “The SNGP and SSGC have planned to invest Rs 27,669 million on transmission projects, Rs 77,484 million on distribution projects, and Rs 8,746 million on other projects bringing the total investment of Rs 113,899 million during the fiscal year 2022-23,” according to an official document available with APP.


The available statistics indicated that Pakistan has an extensive gas network with more than 13,513 KM transmission, 155,679 KM distribution, and 41,231 KM service gas pipelines for cater to the requirement of millions of consumers.

The companies are also executing at least three strategic projects to supply gas to two Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and an industrial park in their respective areas to boost industrial production.—APP

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 13, 2023 at 9:53pm

State-owned Pakistan LNG (PLL) has announced its intention to secure nine LNG cargoes during the months of October, December, January 2024, and February 2024.

https://www.naturalgasworld.com/pakistan-floats-two-tenders-for-spo...


---------------

The federal government issued two tenders seeking spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes for the first time in nearly a year on Tuesday, while also announcing a deal that will see Azerbaijan provide the country with one LNG cargo per month.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1759531

Dependent on gas for power generation and running short of foreign exchange to pay for imports, the country has struggled to procure spot cargoes of LNG after global prices spiked last year following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, leaving it to face widespread power outages.

But Asian spot LNG prices this year have eased from record highs of $70 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) hit in August, and are now trading below $10.

Pakistan LNG, a government subsidiary that procures LNG from the international market, has one tender seeking six cargoes on a delivered-ex-ship (DES) basis to Port Qasim in Karachi in October and December, according to the tenders posted online.



The delivery windows are October 5-6, 20-21 and 31, and December 7-8, 13-14 and 24-25. The tender will close on June 20.

Pakistan LNG’s second tender seeks three cargoes, also on DES basis to Port Qasim, for delivery windows of January 3-4, 28-29 and February 23-24. The second tender closes on July 14.

Pakistan LNG last issued a tender seeking 10 spot cargoes in July 2022, but received no offers.

Separately on Tuesday, Minister of State for Petroleum Musadik Malik told a news conference that Azerbaijan will supply an LNG cargo every month to Pakistan at a “cheaper price”.

He did not share details on the supply deal, but said that a contract had already been signed with Azerbaijan and that it will “start soon”.

Pakistan has two long-term supply deals with Qatar, one signed in 2016 for 3.75 million metric tons of LNG a year, and another signed in 2021 for 3m metric tons a year.

It also has an annual portfolio contract with ENI for 0.75m metric tons a year.

In 2022, Pakistan’s imports of LNG slowed to 6.93m metric tons for the year, down from 8.23m metric tons in 2021, according to data from data analytics group Kpler.

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