Is Modi's "Make in India" All Hype?

Some of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's supporters claim that his "Make in India" campaign has brought India to the verge of becoming a manufacturing behemoth 69 years after the nation's independence. Others claim India is already a manufacturing powerhouse. Let's examine these claims based on data.


Manufacturing Ranking:

While India now ranks 6th in the world in terms of total manufacturing output, it still sits at a very low 142nd position terms of manufacturing value added per capita, according to the United Nations Industrial Development Organization's Industrial Development Report 2016.  Pakistan's manufacturing value added is ranked 146th by the same report.

Manufacturing Output:

India's 3% share of the world's total manufacturing output puts it at a distant sixth position behind China's 24%, United States' 17%,  Japan's 16%, Germany's 7% and South Korea's 4%.

The UNIDO data shows that India's manufacturing value added (MVA) per capita at constant 2005 prices increased from US$155.73 in 2005 to $168.42 in 2014.   However, as percentage of GDP at constant 2005 prices in US$, India's MVA decreased from 15.10% in 2005 to 13.85% in 2014

UNIDO reports that Pakistan manufacturing value added (MVA) per capita at constant 2005 prices increased from US$135.03 in 2005 to $143.84 in 2014. Its  MVA as percentage of GDP at constant 2005 prices in US$ decreased from 18.05% in 2005 to 17.41% in 2014.

India's manufacturing output declined 0.7% in April-June 2016-17

Make in India:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has recognized how far behind India is in the manufacturing sector. His government's highly publicized "Make in India" is designed to Change that.

What does India, or for that matter any other developing country, need to boost its manufacturing output? Most experts agree on two essential pre-requisites for industrial development:

1. Energy and Infrastructure

2. Skilled Manpower

China's rapid industrialization over the last few decades has shown that the focus must be on the above two to achieve desired results. Has India learned from the Chinese experience? Let's examine this question.

Energy and Infrastructure Development:

"Infrastructure is the biggest hurdle to the ambitious Make in India program of the government," Standard and Poor Global Ratings Credit Analyst Abhishek Dangra told reporters on a conference call,  according to India's Economic Times publication.

"The government is scaling up spending, but its heavy debt burden could derail its ambitions to improve public infrastructure," the Standard and Poor report said.

India suffers from huge energy deficit. Over 300 million of India’s 1.25 billion people live without electricity.  Another 250 million get only spotty power from India’s aging grid, with availability limited to three or four hours a day, according to an MIT Energy Report. The lack of electricity affects rural and urban areas alike, limiting efforts to advance both living standards and the country’s manufacturing sector.


Skilled Manpower:

“India doesn’t have a labor shortage—it has a skilled labor shortage,” said Tom Captain, global aerospace and defense industry leader at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

The WSJ report said that over 80% of engineers in India are “unemployable,” according to Aspiring Minds, an Indian employability assessment firm that did a a study of 150,000 engineering students at 650 engineering colleges in the country.

NPR's Julie McCarthy reported recently that ten million Indians enter the workforce every year. But according to the Labour Bureau, eight labor-intensive sectors, including automobiles, created only 135,000 jobs last year, the lowest in seven years.

Impact on Agriculture: 

Prime Minister Modi's focus on manufacturing is talking away resources and attention from India's farmers who are killing themselves at a rate of one every 30 minutes.

Majority of Indian farmers depend on rain to grow crops, making them highly vulnerable to changes in weather patterns. As a comparison, the percentage of irrigated agricultural land in Pakistan is twice that India.

More than half of India's labor force is engaged in agriculture. Value added per capita is among the lowest in the world. Pakistan's agriculture value added per capita is about twice India's. This is the main cause of high levels of poverty across India.

Chinese Experience:

China has shown that it is possible to make huge strides in manufacturing while at the same time achieve high productivity levels in agriculture.

On the manufacturing front, China has taken care of the basics like energy, infrastructure and skilled manpower development to achieve phenomenal growth.

As part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) development, Pakistanis are learning from the Chinese to replicate success in manufacturing.

The first phases of CPEC are focused on building power plants, gas pipelines, rail lines, roads and ports at a cost of $46 billion. At the same time, China and Pakistan are also focussing on skills training via vocational schools and Pakistan-China Education Corridor. These projects will lay the foundation necessary to ramp up manufacturing in Pakistan.

Summary:

Both India and Pakistan want to emulate the success of China in the manufacturing sector. The Chinese experience has shown that development of energy, infrastructure and skilled labor are essential to achieve their manufacturing ambitions. The South Asians must move beyond hype to do the hard work necessary for it. Pakistan is working with China via CPEC to make progress toward becoming a manufacturing powerhouse.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Auto Industry in India and Pakistan

UN Industrial Development Report 2016

Indian Farmer Suicides

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Robust Energy Demand Growth in Pakistan

Human Capital Development in Pakistan

Views: 1651

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 18, 2017 at 8:12am

India simply cannot afford to boycott “Made in China” Part 2

Devangshu Datta, Scroll.in

https://qz.com/1079903/india-simply-cannot-afford-to-boycott-made-i...



If there was a trade war, India would have to source the same goods from elsewhere and ditto for China. India is internationally competitive in the things it offers to China. Similarly, China offers good value in its exports to India. But both India and China would also need to find other markets and that would not be easy since both nations are large markets themselves.
As a thought experiment, assume that both countries have to pay a 10% premium to source from elsewhere, China then pays the equivalent of 0.09% of its GDP and an absolute amount of about $11 billion while India pays the equivalent of 2.9% of GDP and an absolute amount of about $66 billion.
Which nation loses more?
4) ‘Indians could start producing those goods domestically and thus stimulate domestic industry’

Indians do not buy Chinese goods out of a desire to do charity. They buy them because imported alternatives are more expensive and India cannot produce the same things as cheaply at the same quality. If India tried to produce the same goods locally, or imported them from other nations, it would have to pay a premium either way. That premium would mean that Indians will have less money to spend elsewhere. More than that, it would mean the unproductive use of human resources and of capital.
5) ‘If India stopped importing goods from abroad in general and produced everything domestically, it would have a strong economy’

No it would not. India tried this idiocy for decades. It banned all imports (except the ones that were absolutely necessary) and produced shoddy overpriced Ambassador cars, fridges that did not cool, telephones that did not work, bottles with defective caps, paper cups with holes. Indians were fleeced by their compatriots for years in the name of swadeshi. What is more, producing goods domestically will not necessarily generate net employment. Chinese companies operating in India employ huge numbers. Those people would be laid off in a trade war.
There are also a few things India simply cannot produce domestically.
One is energy—India is woefully deficient in crude, high-grade coal and gas. It has to import these energy commodities and will always have to do so.
India is also deficient in rare-earth metals. These are required to produce solar power equipment, wind turbines, cellphones, laptops, and most other electronic gear. Guess which nation has a 90% global monopoly in rare earths? Here is a hint—its initials read “PRC.” As India moves further in the direction of clean, green energy, it becomes ever more dependent on Chinese rare earths.
At the beginning I had said that swadeshi is a stupid idea under most conditions, not just in the India-China context. Let me explain why in a series of Q&As.
As mentioned earlier, India will always have to import some commodities, so:
How does one pay for imports?
By generating foreign exchange from exports.
How does one generate foreign exchange from exports?
By producing globally competitive goods and services.
How does one produce goods and services that are globally competitive?
By focussing capital and human resources in areas where there is a competitive edge. Economic theory says that if Nation A has a competitive advantage over Nation B in producing two separate items, Nation A should nevertheless focus on producing the one item where it has the larger margin.
How does one produce goods and services that are uncompetitive?
By squandering capital and resources in uncompetitive sectors swadeshi ensures the production of uncompetitive goods and services.

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 30, 2017 at 10:23pm

#MakeinIndia is looking more and more like a bad joke. 
#India #Modi #Manufacturing https://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/folk-theorem/make-in-indi... … via @TOIOpinion

Flashback to September 2014, when PM Narendra Modi unveiled a scheme called, ‘Make in India’ (MII), with a gear-and-cogs lion logo. Three years later MII has, literally, gone off the rails. By October next year, work was supposed to start on the largest MII project: a $2.5 billion venture by America’s GE to make diesel-electric locomotives in Marhaura, in Chhapra, Bihar.
But two weeks ago, New Delhi switched off the Bihar project, saying electric trains were the future. Chief minister Nitish Kumar, who gambled his political future by breaking with a Congress-Lalu Yadav coalition to ally with BJP recently, isn’t amused. He says it’ll take ages to electrify India’s 1,10,000 km of tracks. As a two-time rail mantri and Bihari, Nitish should know.
Against government claims that 96% of Bihar villages are electrified, a 2015 survey found only 8% of households get electricity for 20 hours a day. A staggering 80% of homes don’t use electricity for lighting, but get by with kerosene lamps. An incensed GE wants India to pay it Rs 1,300 crore in compensation. Such irony: our loss-making, cash-poor railways will now pay to cancel MII investments. What is New Delhi smoking?
By the mid-2000s, most railways worldwide scrapped all-electric locomotives to pull the heaviest loads; without an internal combustion mechanism, electric engines take very long to accelerate or brake. Now the world’s most powerful locomotives, like 2015’s 4,400 horsepower (HP) EMD machines in the US or Iran’s Alstom 4,300 HP engines or China’s 6,250 and 6,300 HP HNX series, are diesel-electric combinations; Russia’s giant 11,300 HP Sinara locomotive is powered by a GT gas-electric engine.
New Delhi thinks electric trains will save India the cost of diesel. Is electricity made out of thin air? A study in the mid-2000s argued that it makes no sense to run heavy freight trains, moving under 100km per hour, with electricity. By shifting all freight trains to diesel, railways could save 20% of its power bills. The bijli could be diverted to industry and commerce, which now use diesel to generate power. Shunting the locomotive project could be the last nail in MII’s coffin, but there are other stupendous failures.
Someone fancifully called India the ‘pharmacy of the world’. This hype is busted by numbers. India contributes 0.9% of its GDP to research, compared to China’s 2.1%. Medicine is no exception. Last year, a team led by Samiran Nundy, one of India’s most respected medical doctors, found 60% of medical institutions produced no research. Those that did were mostly taxpayer-funded, with Delhi’s AIIMS at the lead. But even AIIMS produced less than a third of the nearly 5,000 research papers published by the Massachusetts General Hospital every year.
Another study found that of the top 316 medical R&D spenders worldwide, India had only eight (mostly state-owned), while China was host to 21. India does the grunt work of digitising global research or supplying human guinea-pigs to test therapies developed overseas. We pretend our medicine-makers are world beaters. Rubbish. Mostly, they import medical raw material (called Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients, or APIs) from China, package and sell them as desi brands. This adds some value to Indian exports, especially to the US, wary of importing bulk drugs direct from China. In 2000, India imported only 23% of APIs from China. Through 2014-16, when MII was supposedly in full throttle, we imported 52% of APIs from China, each year.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 2, 2017 at 9:41am

#Smartphones made in #India? #Manufacturing ambition hits hurdles. #MakeInIndia #Modi #Apple #Foxconn

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-manufacturing-smartphones/s...

India’s ambitions to become a smartphone-making powerhouse are foundering over a lack of skilled labor and part suppliers along with a complex tax regime, industry executives say.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has championed a manufacturing drive, under the slogan ‘Make in India’, to boost the sluggish economy and create millions of jobs. Among the headline-grabbing details was a plan to eventually make Apple APPL.O iPhones in India.

Three years on, as executives and bureaucrats crowded into a Delhi convention center for an inaugural mobile congress last week, India has managed only to assemble phones from imported components.

While contract manufacturers such as iPhone-maker Foxconn Technology Co (2354.TW) and Flextronics Corp have set up base in India, one of the world’s fastest-growing smartphone markets, almost none of the higher value chip sets, cameras and other high-end components are made domestically.

Plans for Taiwan-based Foxconn to build an electronics plant in the state of Maharashtra, which local officials said in 2015 could employ some 50,000 people, have gone quiet.

According to tech research firm Counterpoint, while phones are assembled domestically because of taxes on imported phones, locally made content in those phones is usually restricted to headphones and chargers - about 5 percent of a device’s cost.

“Rather than feeling that India is a place where I should be making mobile phones, it’s more like this is the place I need to(assemble) phones because there is lower duty if I import components and assemble here,” a senior executive with a Chinese smartphone maker said.

He declined to be named for fear of harming business.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 8, 2017 at 9:45am

India plans to lessen its drug reliance on China 

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/60990092.cms

Currently, India gets 70-80% of its medicines and medical devices supplies, including raw material for pharmaceuticals (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient) from China. This poses a major risk of severe drug shortage if India's diplomatic relations with China worsen. 

In fact, in 2014, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval had also warned the government about India's over-dependence on China for API and how the tension between the two countries can cause a crisis in the public health .. 

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 14, 2017 at 9:06am

Why Is Manufacturing More Expensive In India Than In China?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2017/12/13/why-is-manufacturing-...

Why are manufacturing costs higher in India, compared to China? originally appeared on Quora: the place to gain and share knowledge, empowering people to learn from others and better understand the world.

Answer by Balaji Viswanathan, CEO of Invento Robotics, on Quora:

A number of my relatives run manufacturing plants in Tamil Nadu, a relatively developed state. My in-laws have also recently started importing from China (replacing their Indian suppliers) and I will tell you why costs are higher than in China.


Power availability: You start a plant and realize that power availability is not 24/7. In Coimbatore and other industrial places you get power for like eight hours a day. That means the machinery lies idle for sixteen hours and that wasted capacity adds to the cost.
Cost of power: In India, we subsidize the power to farmers so much (farmers are a huge political base to regional parties) that the electricity companies either have to go bankrupt or charge huge amounts for industries. Electricity cost is often higher than some developed countries.
Cost of labor: Getting good factory labor in places like Tamil Nadu has become extremely hard. Skilled people are already in high-paying industries. The unskilled ones are hard to deal with. When we get labor from the north, they often move out without much notice (go to Diwali on vacation and never return). Skill building is lacking. If you pay $250, the quality of labor you get in China is likely higher than what you get in India.
Cost of transportation: Given the poor roads, a shipment from India's north can take a week or more to reach India's south. Sometimes it is quicker and cheaper to actually get a shipment from Shenzhen than Kolkata. Time is money and all those delays add to your cost. If I could get something in two days, I could sell it immediately rather than wait two months to sell it (add up the interest costs).
Bureaucracy: Starting a new plant or to adding anything to an existing one is very costly in time and money. You need to fill out a huge number of forms and grease a lot of palms just to do something legal and useful. Shipping across states is also very delayed (this is why the industry is pushing for GST). Unless most of the Indian laws - especially the one dealing with factories and labor - are thrown out, corruption, delays, and inefficiencies will remain.
Anti-large enterprises: India grew up in the mindset that large industries are bad. While many laws have changed since 1991, some of our laws, especially in textiles, are structured around small enterprises. Small businesses do not have the scale to produce cheaply and take on massive factories in China or Bangladesh. Thus, in the huge lucrative market of ready-made garments, Bangladesh quickly took the number two spot - leading to huge improvements in women development, while Indians are clinging to outdated laws favoring small, cottage industries.
If India has to compete with China, we have to completely overhaul all of the economic laws - taxes, labor, factories - we have had in place since 1947. Otherwise we will continue to be costlier than Vietnam and Bangladesh.

This question originally appeared on Quora - the place to gain and share knowledge, empowering people to learn from others and better understand the world. You can follow Quora on Twitter, Facebook, and Google+. More questions:

Manufacturing: Why are 53% of India's factories in only five states?
India: Is there a difference between Indian conservatism and American conservatism?
China: As an Indian what is your experience with China and its people?

Comment by Riaz Haq on January 23, 2018 at 4:45pm

#Modi, in #Davos2018 , Praises #Globalization Without Noting #India’s #Trade Barriers. #ModiAtDavos #China #tariffs

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/23/business/modi-in-davos-praises-g...

“Forces of protectionism are raising their heads against globalization,” Mr. Modi said during a speech to the World Economic Forum here. “Their intention is not only to avoid globalization, but they also want to reverse its natural flow.”

Notably missing from the speech was any mention of recent moves by Mr. Modi’s own government to restrict imports into India as part of a broad industrial policy meant to force foreign companies to increase manufacturing operations in the country. In essence, he is pursuing a protectionist agenda, at odds with the mantra of globalization.

Mr. Modi’s speech reflects the tenor of the times. As President Trump pushes an “America First” strategy, global leaders are lining up to position themselves as a counterpoint, even if there is sometimes a disconnect between the rhetoric and the reality.

In Davos last year, President Xi Jinping of China positioned himself as a champion of economic globalization in a rebuke to Mr. Trump, who, as president-elect at the time, was threatening to impose steep tariffs. Yet China has long bent the rules of commerce to fit it own needs.

Mr. Modi is following a similar path in India, as he looks to nurture growth in his sprawling economy and to create jobs.

Last month, India’s government imposed stiff tariffs on imports of cellphones, video cameras and televisions. The move put heavy pressure on Apple, which ships most of the iPhones it sells in India from China, to do more manufacturing in India.

Mr. Modi’s government is also considering a recommendation by India’s Directorate General of Safeguards, Customs and Central Excise that the country impose 70 percent tariffs on imported solar panels. Such a move would appear to conflict with Mr. Modi’s call here for international action on climate change. Introducing such stiff tariffs could well encourage the production of more solar panels in India, but it could also make solar power far more expensive for Indian consumers and, in turn, hurt the fight against climate change.

At 70 percent, the tariffs that India is considering on imported solar panels would be more than double those that the Trump administration said on Monday it would impose on such panels. Mr. Modi did not indicate in his speech what his government might decide on the issue.

-------

A ranking of countries on pollution and ecosystem protection released here on Tuesday showed India falling to 177 out of 180, down from 156 two years ago. By comparison, China was No. 120 on the list, which was compiled by Yale’s Center for Environmental Law and Policy.

“They are driving economic growth, but not paying attention to what I would call the parallel challenge of sustainable development: avoiding environmental degradation,” Daniel Esty, the center’s director, said of India.

As in the United States, industrial policies in India meant to foster domestic manufacturing can collide with a push by environmentalists and clean-energy electric utilities for solar panels, even imported ones, to be deployed as widely and as cheaply as possible. Among the other people attending Mr. Modi’s speech was Sumant Sinha, chairman and chief executive of ReNew Power Ventures, a company based on the outskirts of New Delhi that builds clean energy projects.

-----------
Devendra Fadnavis, the chief minister of Maharashtra, the vast Indian state that includes Mumbai and big manufacturing cities like Pune, also attended Mr. Modi’s speech. He said that he saw growing interest among companies from outside India to manufacture in the country. Foxconn, the giant Taiwanese manufacturer that produces the bulk of Apple’s consumer electronics, is in negotiations with Maharashtra officials to set up a large factory there.

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 12, 2018 at 7:54am

Is World’s Largest Importer Of With Insatiable Hunger, While Slashes Imports.

Report by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute spotlights India’s floundering attempts to make firearms in India and growing preference of US over Russia as arms supplier.

India continues to be world’s largest importer for major firearms, an indication that Modi government’s Make In India drive for defence sector has faltered.

report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute has found that India was the “world’s largest importer of major arms in 2013–17 and accounted for 12 per cent of the global total”.

The report spotlights India’s floundering attempts to make firearms in India. India has managed to get just Rs 1.17 crore as FDI in the defecne sector under the “Make in India” framework.

“FDI of amount $0.18 million has been received in the defence industry sector from April 2014 to December 2017,” said junior defence minister Subhash Bhamre, in a written reply to Lok Sabha recently.

India’s imports increased by 24% between 2008–12 and 2013–17, according to the report and majority of the firearms were sourced from India’s long-time supplier Russia, which accounted for 62 per cent of India’s arms imports in 2013–17.

"Asian and Indian arms procurement in particular are a reflection of the growing security competition in Asia," Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan , a senior fellow at ORF, told Outlook. 

--------

Surprisingly, India’s long-time foe has slashed its imports despite its tensions with India and internal conflicts.

“Pakistan’s arms imports decreased by 36 per cent between 2008–12 and 2013–17. Pakistan accounted for 2.8 per cent of global arms imports in 2013–17. Its arms imports from the USA dropped by 76 per cent in 2013–17 compared with 2008–12.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 17, 2018 at 8:16pm

#NobelPrize-winner Paul Krugman warns #India could end up with huge mass #unemployment if it does not grow its #manufacturing sector. #Modi #MakeInIndia

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/nobel-...

"There is this concept called artificial intelligence that you should be wary of. In future, while diagnosis may be outsourced to a doctor in India, it could also go to a firm based on artificial intelligence. Things like this could be a cause for worry for Indian services sector," Krugman said while speaking at a News 18 event. 

"Japan is no longer a superpower because its working-age population declined, and China is looking the same. In Asia, India could take the lead but only if it also develops its manufacturing sector, not only the services one,” he said. 

“India’s lack in the manufacturing sector could work against it, as it doesn't have the jobs essential to sustain the projected growth in demography. You have to find jobs for people,” he said. 

On the other hand, India can also ride the next wave of globalisation on its demographic dividend. "India's growth story is quite unique. Services propelling growth to an extent that hasn't been seen anywhere else in the world and the possibilities of service globalisation has only just begun. Globalisation of service trade has a huge potential. That's one reason to be especially hopeful of India’s progress. It has the first-mover's advantage here," he said. 

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 24, 2018 at 7:35pm

According to Counterpoint Research, in Q4 of 2016, Micromax had a 16% share of the smartphone market, which dropped to 5% in Q4 of 2017. Now, none of the Indian players figure among the top five. 

While we 'Make in India', customers favor #Korean or #Chinese #mobile #handsets http://ecoti.in/W4GjoY via @economictimes #MakeInIndia #Modi #Manufacturing 

The fall of Indian handset makers has been as dramatic as their rise. Almost 300 million devices are sold in India — a market second only to China, having overtaken the US in 2017. Yet, in this $20-billion business, Indian companies find the customer hanging up on them in favour of Korean, Chinese or even Russian brands. 

Micromax has shifted to selling aircoolers, air-cons, washing machines and television sets. Consumer appliances are seen as stable in terms of technology — no need for tweaks every few months — with relatively better margins compared to the low single digits for handsets.

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 4, 2018 at 9:57pm
Manufacturing value added per capita and manufactured exports per capita
Source: United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO)

Pakistan MVA per capita 2010 $134  2015 $146

Pakistan Manufactured Exports per capita  2010 $102 2015 $94 
Bangladesh MVA per capita 2010 $122  2015 $182
Bangladesh Manufactured Exports per capita  2010 $121 2015 $152 
India MVA per capita 2010 $228  2015 $298
India Manufactured Exports per capita  2010 $152 2015 $186
China MVA per capita 2010 $1,432  2015 $2,048
China Manufactured Exports per capita  2010 $1,132 2015 $1,601

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