Comment by Riaz Haq on June 18, 2021 at 6:27pm

#Pakistan PM #ImranKhan will "absolutely not" allow #CIA to use bases for #Afghanistan operations. CIA Chief Burns has warned of the "significant risk" of al-Qaeda and ISIS regrouping in Afghanistan. #Taliban https://www.axios.com/imran-khan-interview-cia-afghanistan-bases-22...

Pakistan will "absolutely not" allow the CIA to use bases on its soil for cross-border counterterrorism missions after American forces withdraw from Afghanistan, Prime Minister Imran Khan tells "Axios on HBO" in a wide-ranging interview airing Sunday at 6pm ET.

Why it matters: The quality of counterterrorism and intelligence capabilities in Afghanistan is a critical question facing the Biden administration as U.S. forces move closer to total withdrawal by Sept. 11.

The Biden administration also is exploring options in Central Asia to maintain intelligence on terrorist networks inside Afghanistan, but that is complicated for a different reason: Those countries are in Vladimir Putin's sphere of influence.
Where it stands: Despite an uneasy relationship with Pakistan, whose military has deep ties to the Taliban, the U.S. has conducted hundreds of drone strikes and cross-border counterterrorism operations from Pakistani soil.

But Khan, who was elected in 2018, was unequivocal: Pakistan will not allow the CIA or U.S. special forces to base themselves inside his country ever again, he told Axios.
Between the lines: Khan has long opposed Pakistan cooperating with the U.S. war on terror, but the reality is that he also has no choice but to say this publicly.

Close observers say it would be political suicide for Khan to embrace the presence of the CIA or special forces on Pakistani soil.
American officials privately are still hopeful they can come to a covert arrangement with Pakistan's powerful military and intelligence services.
CIA Director William Burns did not meet with Khan when he made an unannounced trip to Islamabad recently to meet with the head of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency, amid questions about how the CIA will adapt after two decades of intelligence and paramilitary operations in Afghanistan.

Earlier this month, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the U.S. has had "constructive discussions" with Pakistan about ensuring Afghanistan will never again become a base from which terrorist groups can attack the U.S., but he declined to go into specifics.
What's next: Burns has warned of the "significant risk" of al-Qaeda and ISIS regrouping in Afghanistan. "When the time comes for the U.S. military to withdraw, the U.S. government's ability to collect and act on threats will diminish," he testified in April. "That is simply a fact."

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told Congress this week that it will take militant groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS possibly two years to develop the capability to strike the U.S. homeland.
The bottom line: That risk will only increase if the Afghan government collapses and the country falls into a civil war, Joint Chiefs of Staff chair Mark Milley testified.

Getting Pakistan on board with the peace process will be the pivotal factor, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani said last month in an interview with German newspaper Der Spiegel: "The U.S. now plays only a minor role. The question of peace or hostility is now in Pakistani hands."

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 22, 2021 at 10:01am

Answering a question by Jonathan Swan of Axios regarding Pakistan giving airbases to the US for military ops in Afghanistan, Prime Minister Imran Khan asserted, “Absolutely not. There is no way we are going to allow any bases, any sort of action from Pakistani territory into Afghanistan. Absolutely not".

https://youtu.be/BbBwQ_j6vtI

Appearing to be shocked by the Prime Minister's response, Swan asked, "Seriously".

Axios on HBO is known for interviews with leaders in technology, media, business, and politics. It has featured interviews with former US president Donald Trump, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, GM CEO Mary Barra, President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary candidate Andrew Yang among others.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 10, 2021 at 12:42pm

#Biden: "....the likelihood there’s going to be one unified government in Afghanistan controlling the whole country is highly unlikely" #Afghanistan #Taliban #Daesh #ISIS #Pashtun #Tajik #Uzbek #Hazara #Tribal
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/07/0...

You know my record. I can tell by the way you asked the question.

I opposed permanently having American forces in Afghanistan. I argued, from the beginning, as you may recall — it came to light after the administration was over, last — our administration — no nation has ever unified Afghanistan. No nation. Empires have gone there and not done it.


I believe the only way there’s going to be — this is now Joe Biden, not the intelligence community — the only way there’s ultimately going to be peace and security in Afghanistan is that they work out a modus vivendi with the Taliban and they make a judgment as to how they can make peace.

And the likelihood there’s going to be one unified government in Afghanistan controlling the whole country is highly unlikely.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 11, 2021 at 10:03am

#American Congressman Adam Kinzinger, an Air Force veteran who flew missions in #Iraq and #Afghanistan, says #US #Afghan exit 'a crushing defeat'. "The #Taliban have outlasted the will of the #UnitedStates" #Biden #India #Iran #Pakistan #China #Russia https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/562449-kinzinger-afg...

While appearing on NBC's "Meet the Press," Kinzinger was asked by host Chuck Todd whether he agreed with a headline from The Economist that called the withdrawal a crushing defeat.

"No, I agree. It's a crushing defeat. You know, the Taliban always had a saying. They said, 'The U.S. -- America has the watches, but we have the time.' You know, I'm proud of the American people for sticking by this mission for 20 years. We actually needed to do it longer and we still have troops in Kosovo, but unfortunately it worked," Kinzinger said.

"The Taliban have outlasted the will of the United States. It was not a hot war, really. It was basically a peacekeeping operation and we may have to go back now. It is a crushing defeat and I'm really sad about it, honestly," he added.

The U.S. left Bagram Airfield earlier this month, signalling a symbolic end the the U.S.'s presence in Afghanistan. Todd asked Kinzinger if he felt it was likely the U.S. would have to occupy the airbase again in the future.

"I do think it's quite likely we're going to have to either — when we return to Afghanistan because, you know, of the existential threat to us or our allies — re-occupy Bagram or we may have to bomb it if there's some kind of an air mission," Kinzinger opined.

Kinzinger added, "We only had 2,500 troops there, 5,000 NATO troops, and the Afghanistan government was doing 98 percent of the fighting against the Taliban. It's no wonder they're collapsing when the U.S. says, 'We're gone.' But it was really a small price to pay for frankly holding off the inevitable bad that unfortunately we're going to see."

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 11, 2021 at 10:36am

#America’s war in #Afghanistan is ending in crushing defeat. Ensuing civil war is likely to intensify, as the #Taliban press their advantage. Other countries—#China, #India, #Iran, #Russia and #Pakistan—will seek to fill the vacuum left by America. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/07/10/americas-longest-war-i...

“I want to talk about happy things, man!” protested President Joe Biden in early July, when reporters asked him about the imminent withdrawal of the last American forces from Afghanistan, expected some time in the next few weeks. No wonder he wants to change the subject: America has been fighting in Afghanistan for 20 years. It has spent more than $2trn on the war. It has lost thousands of its own troops and seen the death of tens of thousands of Afghans—soldiers and civilians alike. Now America is calling an end to the whole sorry adventure, with almost nothing to show for it.

True, al-Qaeda, which sparked the war by planning the 9/11 attacks from Afghanistan, is no longer much of a force in the country, although it has not been eliminated entirely. But that is about as far as it goes. Other anti-American terror groups, including a branch of Islamic State, continue to operate in Afghanistan. The zealots of the Taliban, who harboured Osama bin Laden and were overthrown by American-backed forces after 9/11, have made a horrifying comeback. They are in complete control of about half the country and threaten to conquer the rest. The democratic, pro-Western government fostered by so much American blood and money is corrupt, widely reviled and in steady retreat.

In theory, the Taliban and the American-backed government are negotiating a peace accord, whereby the insurgents lay down their arms and participate instead in a redesigned political system. In the best-case scenario, strong American support for the government, both financial and military (in the form of continuing air strikes on the Taliban), coupled with immense pressure on the insurgents’ friends, such as Pakistan, might succeed in producing some form of power-sharing agreement. But even if that were to happen—and the chances are low—it would be a depressing spectacle. The Taliban would insist on moving backwards in the direction of the brutal theocracy they imposed during their previous stint in power, when they confined women to their homes, stopped girls from going to school and meted out harsh punishments for sins such as wearing the wrong clothes or listening to the wrong music.

More likely than any deal, however, is that the Taliban try to use their victories on the battlefield to topple the government by force. They have already overrun much of the countryside, with government units mostly restricted to cities and towns. Demoralised government troops are abandoning their posts. This week over 1,000 of them fled from the north-eastern province of Badakhshan to neighbouring Tajikistan. The Taliban have not yet managed to capture and hold any cities, and may lack the manpower to do so in lots of places at once. They may prefer to throttle the government slowly rather than attack it head on. But the momentum is clearly on their side.

At the very least, the civil war is likely to intensify, as the Taliban press their advantage and the government fights for its life. Other countries—China, India, Iran, Russia and Pakistan—will seek to fill the vacuum left by America. Some will funnel money and weapons to friendly warlords. The result will be yet more bloodshed and destruction, in a country that has suffered constant warfare for more than 40 years. Those who worry about possible reprisals against the locals who worked as translators for the Americans are missing the big picture: America is abandoning an entire country of almost 40m people to a grisly fate.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 11, 2021 at 4:20pm

#India airlifting arms to Ashraf Ghani government in #Afghanistan to fight the #Taliban https://tribune.com.pk/story/2310071/indian-planes-ferry-arms-to-af...

India on Sunday said it has “temporarily” brought back officials from its consulate in Kandahar, a major city in southern Afghanistan, as Taliban fighters continue to gain control amid the withdrawal of international forces.

However, sources said New Delhi is also delivering ammunition to the beleaguered Kabul administration and has recently sent two cargo planes to Kabul and Kandahar, full of artillery shells. The same planes were used to evacuate Indian officials from the two cities.

"Due to the intense fighting near Kandahar city, India-based personnel have been brought back for the time being," India's foreign ministry chief spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said in a statement.

"India is closely monitoring the evolving security situation in Afghanistan," Bagchi said, adding that India's consulate in Kandahar was being run by local staff temporarily.

Taliban officials said on Friday the group had taken control of 85% of Afghanistan's territory, as the United States and others withdrew the bulk of their troops after 20 years of fighting. Afghan government officials dismissed the assertion as a propaganda campaign.

India's foreign minister on Friday called for a reduction of violence, saying the situation in the war-torn nation has a direct bearing on regional security. However, on Saturday an Indian Air Force (IAF) C-17 aircraft arrived at Kandahar Airfield at 11am to deliver 40 tons of 122mm artillery shells.

The Afghan Taliban in a video that went viral on social media claimed that they have captured the Indian consulate in Kandahar.

Tolo News in June said the outreach by India was being led by its security officials and had been limited to groups or leaders perceived as "nationalists" or outside the influence of Pakistan and Iran.

The report, quoted by the Afghan media outlet and originally from an Indian publication, stated that communication had been underway for some months and continues to be "exploratory in nature".

Among the leaders contacted was the deputy leader of the Afghan Taliban, Mullah Baradar. The report added that though messages have been exchanged, there is no confirmation of a meeting.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 14, 2021 at 10:26am

#China could soon have an unlikely supporter in Central Asia --the #Taliban. China welcomed the Taliban to #Beijing in 2019. Taliban have have no interest in criticizing China over its alleged repression of Muslim minorities in Xinjiang. #Afghanistan #CPEC https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/14/asia/afghanistan-china-taliban-beiji...

One is a government accused of detaining more than 1 million Muslims in a vast system of internment camps. The other is one of the world's strictest Islamist militant groups. Yet despite their differences, the Chinese Communist Party and the Taliban may soon find themselves working together, at least tentatively.

Following the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban is again resurgent, taking control of great swathes of the country. The speed at which Afghan security forces have lost control to the Taliban has shocked many, and led to concerns the capital Kabul could be next to fall.
The Islamist group is already planing for such a future, with a Taliban spokesman telling the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post earlier this week that China was a "welcome friend," and conversations over reconstruction should begin "as soon as possible."
The possibility of the Chinese government cooperating with the Taliban in a post-US Afghanistan is not as unlikely as it may first appear. Afghanistan remains a key component in Beijing's long-term regional development plans. In May, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said Beijing was in discussions with Islamabad and Kabul to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Afghanistan, including expanding transport and trade networks between the three countries.

Nor is China averse to dealing with the Taliban, having publicly welcomed the militant group to Beijing in September 2019 for peace talks.
The Taliban, meanwhile, has made clear it would be willing to overlook any perceived grievances, with a spokesman telling the Wall Street Journal earlier this month the group had no interest in criticizing China over its alleged repression of Muslim minorities in Xinjiang. "We care about the oppression of Muslims ... But what we are not going to do is interfere in China's internal affairs," he was quoted as saying.
Pakistani senator Mushahid Hussain, chairman of the Pakistan-China Institute, told CNN the Taliban was more "chastened and pragmatic" than during its previous time in power, and the Islamists saw China as a "credible stakeholder" in Afghanistan. "(If they took power) they would need Chinese support for Afghanistan's stability and reconstruction. Annoying China is a recipe for disaster for the Taliban," he said.
Any deterioration in Afghanistan's security situation would be of significant concern to Beijing too, which has invested heavily in Central Asia through its Belt and Road trade and infrastructure scheme. In recent years, Islamist militants have attacked Chinese nationals and their interests in the Pakistani province of Balochistan, which borders Afghanistan. The prospect of further violence is likely to create unease in Beijing, as will the specter of homegrown Chinese militants finding sanctuary in Afghanistan's lawless border areas.
So far, the Chinese government hasn't publicly responded to the Taliban's advances. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is visiting Turkmenistan, Tajikstan and Uzbekistan this week, and is expected to discuss the issue of Afghanistan with his counterparts during the trip.
However, in a widely-shared social media post, Hu Xijin, the editor of state-run nationalist tabloid Global Times, said the Taliban considered China a "friend." His newspaper, meanwhile, suggested Western media outlets were trying to ruin the Taliban's relationship with Beijing by raising questions over Xinjiang.
"The West did not really care about Xinjiang Uyghurs' human rights. It instead hoped to sow discord between Beijing and the Taliban," the opinion piece said.

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 4, 2021 at 10:16am

Pakistan’s security adviser complains Joe Biden has not called Imran Khan | Financial Times

https://www.ft.com/content/f3d50eb9-5b2f-4472-ad7e-1a216e8e9ae1

“The president of the United States hasn’t spoken to the prime minister of such an important country who the US itself says is make-or-break in some cases, in some ways, in Afghanistan — we struggle to understand the signal, right?” Moeed Yusuf, Pakistan’s national security adviser, told the Financial Times in an interview at Pakistan’s embassy in Washington. “We’ve been told every time that . . . [the phone call] will happen, it’s technical reasons or whatever. But frankly, people don’t believe it,” he said. “If a phone call is a concession, if a security relationship is a concession, Pakistan has options,” he added, refusing to elaborate. Pakistan has cultivated deep ties with its “iron brother” China, which has invested billions in infrastructure projects as part of its Belt and Road Initiative. A senior Biden administration official said: “There are still a number of world leaders President Biden has not been able to speak with personally yet. He looks forward to speaking with Prime Minister Khan when the time is right.” The perceived diplomatic affront marks the latest setback to US-Pakistan relations after their co-operation during the war on terror following the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center by al-Qaeda, the Islamist group founded by Osama bin Laden. In 2004, the US named Pakistan an official major non-Nato ally, spurred by Washington’s need for support to fight in Afghanistan. But US administrations have since regularly accused their ally of harbouring Taliban insurgents, claims denied by Pakistan.

-------------------

In an interview with Kamran Khan, Moeed Yusuf said FT has distorted what he said. He went on to say that the talk of Biden's call to Imran Khan is irrelevant.

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 6, 2021 at 7:58am

Carter Malkasian does not agree with Ghani's, Karzai's and some #Americans' contention that Pakistan is the key and/or sole factor in Taliban prevailing over Afghan govt/US forces in Afghanistan. In fact, he strongly refutes it. Please reached attached clips

https://twitter.com/haqsmusings/status/1423648201316335618?s=20

Over time, aware of the government’s vulnerable position, Afghan leaders turned to an outside source to galvanize the population: Pakistan. Razziq, President Hamid Karzai and later President Ashraf Ghani used Pakistan as an outside threat to unite Afghans behind them. They refused to characterize the Taliban as anything but a creation of Islamabad. Razziq relentlessly claimed to be fighting a foreign Pakistani invasion. Yet Pakistan could never fully out-inspire occupation. A popular tale related to me in 2018 by an Afghan government official illuminates the reality:

An Afghan army officer and a Taliban commander were insulting each other over their radios while shooting back and forth. The Taliban commander taunted: “You are puppets of America!” The army officer shouted back: “You are the puppets of Pakistan!” The Taliban commander replied: “The Americans are infidels. The Pakistanis are Muslims.” The Afghan officer had no response.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/07/06/afghanistan-war-m...

Let’s take Pakistan, for example. Pakistan is a powerful factor here. But on the battlefield, if 200 Afghan police and army are confronted with 50 Taliban or less than that, and those government forces retreat, that doesn’t have a lot to do with Pakistan. That has to do with something else.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-legacy-afghanistan-past-present-an...

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 12, 2021 at 1:53pm

In meetings with #Pakistan PM #ImranKhan & #PakistanArmy Chief Bajwa, #US senators want 'broad-based' ties. 4-member delegation headed by Senator Angus King & comprises Richard Burr, John Cornyn & Ben Sasse. All are members of the Armed Services committee

https://www.dawn.com/news/1663221


According to the Prime Minister's Office (PMO), the premier underlined in the meeting that Pakistan valued its long-standing relationship with the US and was committed to expanding it in all spheres, particularly in the economic dimension.

The prime minister expressed the hope that visits by delegations from the US Congress to Pakistan would help strengthen mutual understanding between the two countries and forge closer people-to-people contacts, the PMO said in a statement.

"The PM (prime minister) reiterated that a deeper and stronger partnership between the two countries was mutually beneficial and critical for the region’s peace, security and prosperity."

With regards to the evolving situation in Afghanistan, the PMO statement said, Prime Minister Imran emphasised the need for "deeper engagement" between the US and Pakistan "to promote the shared objectives of peace, stability and economic development" in the war-torn country.

He particularly underscored the "urgent need to support the Afghan people by taking all possible measures to prevent a humanitarian crisis and economic collapse," the statement added.

Moreover, the premier highlighted the importance of "closer cooperation to address the security threats in the region, including terrorism".

"He stressed that the US must play its role in the maintenance of regional peace and stability" and assured the delegation that for its part, Pakistan was prepared to pursue measures that would reinforce peace, stability and prosperity in the region, provided that an enabling environment was created by India.

In this regard, he also informed the delegation about continuous "egregious human rights violations" in Indian-occupied Kashmir and highlighted that the "extremist and exclusionist policies" of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which the premier said was inspired by Hindu nationalist group Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh.

For their part, the US senators recalled the "collective struggles of Pakistan and the US" over the past decades for promoting peace and security globally, according to the PMO statement.

"The senators deeply appreciated Pakistan’s recent contribution in the evacuation of American nationals and others from Afghanistan post 15 August," when the Taliban seized Kabul, and reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining "stable and broad-based" bilateral relations with Pakistan.

They also emphasised that, given the size of Pakistan’s population and its geostrategic location, the US and Pakistan "should make determined efforts for promoting trade, investment and economic cooperation".

Meeting with COAS
The US senators, along with the US Charge d’ Affaires to Pakistan, also met COAS General Bajwa, according to a statement issued by the military's media affairs wing.

The statement by Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said that matters of mutual interest, the security situation in Afghanistan and bilateral cooperation in various fields were discussed during the meeting.

"The COAS said that Pakistan desires to maintain productive bilateral engagement with all regional players and wishes for peaceful, diversified, sustained relations," the statement said, adding that General Bajwa also stressed urgent global convergence on Afghanistan to avoid a looming humanitarian crisis there.

He also emphasised the need for coordinated efforts for the economic uplift of the Afghan people, the statement said.

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