Comment by Riaz Haq on January 21, 2022 at 6:44pm

Arif Habib Limited
@ArifHabibLtd
Historic high-power generation registered in CY21, 136,572 GWh, up by 10.6% YoY. The sharp inflection in economic activity post supportive measures by the Gov’t/SBP remained instrumental in achieving this growth.

https://twitter.com/ArifHabibLtd/status/1484519832921989122?s=20

-------------------

Arif Habib Limited
@ArifHabibLtd
*Power Generation up by 9.3% YoY during 1HFY22*

Dec’21: 8,828 GWh, +12.0% YoY
1HFY22: 74,396 GWh , +9.3% YoY

https://twitter.com/ArifHabibLtd/status/1484511672001871878?s=20

Comment by Riaz Haq on January 24, 2022 at 10:23am

Arif Habib Limited
@ArifHabibLtd
Power Generation up by 10.6% YoY in CY21

Dec’21: 8,828 GWh, +12.0% YoY
CY21: 136,572 GWh, +10.6% YoY

Full Report

https://arifhabib.com/r/PowerGenDec-21.pdf

https://twitter.com/ArifHabibLtd/status/1485478323979436038?s=20

Comment by Riaz Haq on January 28, 2022 at 2:52pm

The improved farm incomes — 59pc for wheat farmers and 47pc for sugarcane growers — last year on the back of better yields and higher market prices are encouraging farmers to use higher quantities of fertilisers to get better output. The domestic urea prices remain at the 2012 level, meaning its share in input costs has drastically reduced over the years. At the same time, the area under wheat cultivation has reached a record 24.3 million hectares depicting a significant growth of approximately two million hectares in the last couple of years. This equates to over four million acres improvement in the area under cultivation. Another factor that has boosted the urea demand is the whopping increase in the prices of DAP fertiliser, which have trebled to over Rs9,000 a bag, forcing many to replace it urea to save money.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1668393

Comment by Riaz Haq on January 31, 2022 at 7:39am

@haqsmusings
·
13h
Unfortunately,
@AtifRMian
only sees #Pakistan’s glass half empty. He refuses to even acknowledge the country’s progress on growing #export & change in #energy mix to lower imports.He ignores transitory high #energy prices causing current account deficits. https://southasiainvestor.com/2022/01/pakistan-economy-not-in-good-...
Omer Zeshan Khan
@OmerZeshanKhan
·
8h
Export growth is low end and for limited time (a bonus). Previous Govt did a few things for localisation (car/mobile/edible oil). Haven’t seen these guys doing anything. They are just sitting and talking. Pakistan’s economy is robust enough to feed people while Govt waits.
Omer Zeshan Khan
@OmerZeshanKhan
·

·
Riaz Haq
@haqsmusings
·
3h
#ImranKhan’s #NayaPakistan housing program is a good idea, especially the incentives for small & medium mortgages for the lower middle class. It’s boosting #employment in #Construction & #manufacturing sectors as well as the housing stock http://riazhaq.com/2020/07/naya-pakistan-low-cost-home-loans-and.html
Omer Zeshan Khan
@OmerZeshanKhan
·
2h
Can you name one project under Naya Pakistan Housing?
Riaz Haq
@haqsmusings
Replying to
@OmerZeshanKhan

@Muslims4USA
and
@AtifRMian
#Housing #Mortgage financing in #Pakistan jumped 85% last year, according to the State Bank. “Financing under MPMG picked up momentum in 2021 as approvals for financing by banks grew from near zero to Rs117 billion in 2021”

https://twitter.com/haqsmusings/status/1488166329769070596?s=20&...

https://www.thenews.com.pk/amp/923033-banks-disburse-rs355bln-housi...

KARACHI: Credit to the housing and construction sector increased by record Rs163 billion or 85 percent in 2021, mainly driven by the central bank’s rules to encourage mortgages and incentives and penalties for lenders with respect to achieving or failing housing finance targets.

Banks disbursed Rs355 billion housing loans in 2021, compared with Rs192 billion in the previous year, the State Bank of Pakistan said in a statement on Thursday.

Disbursement of low-cost housing loans under the Government Markup Subsidy scheme, also known as Mera Pakistan Mera Ghar (MPMG), reached Rs38 billion last year. In December, banks extended Rs9.3 billion loans to the borrowers; highest monthly disbursement since January 2021.

Analysts said tighter monetary conditions usually affect mortgages as the SBP has jacked up interest rates by 275 basis points in three moves since September. Currently, the policy rate hovers at 9.75 percent.

However, the government’s mark-up subsidy scheme looks to remain protected from an upward move in interest rates as the government is providing subsidy to the mortgage clients for the first 10 years.

Habib Bank, Meezan Bank and Bank Al Habib were the top three contributors, said the SBP.

Banks also made significant progress in the provision of financing under MPMG scheme, introduced in 2020, it added.

“Financing under MPMG picked up momentum in 2021 as approvals for financing by banks grew from near zero to Rs117 billion in 2021. The banks have received requests of financing of Rs276 billion from potential customers, which indicates that approvals and disbursements will keep growing in coming months.”

Bank Alfalah emerged as the leading bank with highest disbursement of Rs3.3 billion followed by nine banks with disbursements of over Rs2 billion each. These include Meezan Bank, Bank Islami, National Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, HBFCL, United Bank, MCB Bank, Bank of Punjab and Habib Bank, said the statement.

Financing for housing and construction and particularly under MPMG witnessed impressive growth on the back of many enabling regulatory environments introduced after extensive consultation with stakeholders, the SBP noted.

Further, the SBP said it advised the banks to increase their housing and construction finance portfolios to at least 5 percent of their domestic private sector advances till December 2021, introducing a set of incentives and penalties to ensure compliance.

Comment by Riaz Haq on January 31, 2022 at 7:39am

@haqsmusings
·
13h
Unfortunately,
@AtifRMian
only sees #Pakistan’s glass half empty. He refuses to even acknowledge the country’s progress on growing #export & change in #energy mix to lower imports.He ignores transitory high #energy prices causing current account deficits. https://southasiainvestor.com/2022/01/pakistan-economy-not-in-good-...
Omer Zeshan Khan
@OmerZeshanKhan
·
8h
Export growth is low end and for limited time (a bonus). Previous Govt did a few things for localisation (car/mobile/edible oil). Haven’t seen these guys doing anything. They are just sitting and talking. Pakistan’s economy is robust enough to feed people while Govt waits.
Omer Zeshan Khan
@OmerZeshanKhan
·

·
Riaz Haq
@haqsmusings
·
3h
#ImranKhan’s #NayaPakistan housing program is a good idea, especially the incentives for small & medium mortgages for the lower middle class. It’s boosting #employment in #Construction & #manufacturing sectors as well as the housing stock http://riazhaq.com/2020/07/naya-pakistan-low-cost-home-loans-and.html
Omer Zeshan Khan
@OmerZeshanKhan
·
2h
Can you name one project under Naya Pakistan Housing?
Riaz Haq
@haqsmusings
Replying to
@OmerZeshanKhan

@Muslims4USA
and
@AtifRMian
#Housing #Mortgage financing in #Pakistan jumped 85% last year, according to the State Bank. “Financing under MPMG picked up momentum in 2021 as approvals for financing by banks grew from near zero to Rs117 billion in 2021”

https://twitter.com/haqsmusings/status/1488166329769070596?s=20&...

https://www.thenews.com.pk/amp/923033-banks-disburse-rs355bln-housi...

KARACHI: Credit to the housing and construction sector increased by record Rs163 billion or 85 percent in 2021, mainly driven by the central bank’s rules to encourage mortgages and incentives and penalties for lenders with respect to achieving or failing housing finance targets.

Banks disbursed Rs355 billion housing loans in 2021, compared with Rs192 billion in the previous year, the State Bank of Pakistan said in a statement on Thursday.

Disbursement of low-cost housing loans under the Government Markup Subsidy scheme, also known as Mera Pakistan Mera Ghar (MPMG), reached Rs38 billion last year. In December, banks extended Rs9.3 billion loans to the borrowers; highest monthly disbursement since January 2021.

Analysts said tighter monetary conditions usually affect mortgages as the SBP has jacked up interest rates by 275 basis points in three moves since September. Currently, the policy rate hovers at 9.75 percent.

However, the government’s mark-up subsidy scheme looks to remain protected from an upward move in interest rates as the government is providing subsidy to the mortgage clients for the first 10 years.

Habib Bank, Meezan Bank and Bank Al Habib were the top three contributors, said the SBP.

Banks also made significant progress in the provision of financing under MPMG scheme, introduced in 2020, it added.

“Financing under MPMG picked up momentum in 2021 as approvals for financing by banks grew from near zero to Rs117 billion in 2021. The banks have received requests of financing of Rs276 billion from potential customers, which indicates that approvals and disbursements will keep growing in coming months.”

Bank Alfalah emerged as the leading bank with highest disbursement of Rs3.3 billion followed by nine banks with disbursements of over Rs2 billion each. These include Meezan Bank, Bank Islami, National Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, HBFCL, United Bank, MCB Bank, Bank of Punjab and Habib Bank, said the statement.

Financing for housing and construction and particularly under MPMG witnessed impressive growth on the back of many enabling regulatory environments introduced after extensive consultation with stakeholders, the SBP noted.

Further, the SBP said it advised the banks to increase their housing and construction finance portfolios to at least 5 percent of their domestic private sector advances till December 2021, introducing a set of incentives and penalties to ensure compliance.

Comment by Riaz Haq on February 1, 2022 at 7:06am

#Ecommerce platform Retailo has raised $36 million to digitize mom-and-pop #retail stores in #Pakistan, #UAE and #SaudiArabia. #startup #technology #digital https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-01/early-snap-backe...


The Riyadh-based company’s Series A round was led by Silicon Valley’s Graphene Ventures, an early-stage investor in Snap Inc. and Lyft Inc. The funding round is among the ten largest over the past year in the three countries Retailo operates in, according to data by Crunchbase. It raised $29 million in equity and $7 million in debt.

A string of startups has sprung up in recent years targeting the region’s retail shops, which often run with manual cash registers and handwritten entries. It’s a $500 billion industry made up of more than 10 million small businesses in the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan, according to Retailo. Tiger Global Management LLC made its first investment in Pakistan two months ago in CreditBook, a firm that offers digital book-keeping solutions to small businesses.


Retailo is looking to digitize these stores by giving them a one-stop portal to order all their products at better margins, instead of making multiple calls and visits to wholesale markets. That strategy has become more attractive amid the surge in global commodity prices.

“As global supply chains come under stress pushing up commodity prices and depressing GDP growth, the value of smart supply chains becomes even more important,” said Talha Ansari, chief executive officer at Retailo.

It is also offering credit lines and flexible payment options through buy-now-pay-later services that will be scaled up by the debt funds raised. Leveraging its regional presence, Retailo has recently begun offering its sellers a cross-border distribution platform across its market. The funding will help Retailo move into the next phase of expansion in new geographies, said Ansari.

“We are building something which is much more scalable faster,” he said in an interview. The company expects revenue to grow by six times this year, Ansari added.

Investors in the round include 500 Global, Agility Ventures, Aujan Group, Tech Invest Com and Mentor’s Fund, all of whom have exposure in the retail industry’s technology companies.

The debt was raised from Nahda Fund - one of the Middle East’s first venture debt funds, backed by Hong Kong-based IMM Investment Global. Shorooq Partners, Abercross Holdings, Arzan Venture Capital, AgFunder Inc. also participated in the round as repeat investors

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 20, 2022 at 4:26pm

According to the World Bank’s Pakistan Development Update, released today, while economic activity maintained its momentum during July-December 2021, high demand pressures and rising global commodity prices led to double-digit inflation and a sharp rise in the import bill during this period. These developments have had an adverse impact on the rupee. Moreover, long-standing structural weaknesses of the economy including low investment, low exports, and low productivity growth pose risks to a sustained recovery.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/04/19/long-sta....

The report highlights that with economic recovery and improved labor market conditions, poverty—measured at the lower middle-income class poverty line of $3.20 Purchasing Power Parity 2011 per day—declined from 37 percent in FY20 to 34 percent in FY21. However, rising food and energy prices are expected to decrease the real purchasing power of households, disproportionally affecting poor and vulnerable households that spend a larger share of their budget on these items.

“Pakistan’s economic recovery after the COVID-19 crisis indicates that the country has enormous potential to overcome challenging economic situations,” said Najy Benhassine, World Bank Country Director for Pakistan. “However, sustaining the economic recovery requires addressing long-standing structural weaknesses of the economy and boosting private sector investment, exports and productivity.”

On the back of high base affects and recent monetary tightening, real GDP growth is expected to moderate to 4.3 and 4.0 percent in FY22 and FY23, respectively. Thereafter, economic growth is projected to slightly recover to 4.2 percent in FY24, provided that structural reforms to support fiscal sustainability and macroeconomic stability are implemented rapidly, and that global inflationary pressures dissipate.

However, the macroeconomic risks remain very high. These include tighter global financing conditions, potential further increases in world energy prices, and the possible risk of a return of stringent COVID-19-related mobility restrictions. Domestically, political uncertainty and policy reform slippages can also lead to protracted macroeconomic imbalances.

“To mitigate immediate macroeconomic risks, the Government should focus on containing the fiscal deficit at a level which ensures debt sustainability, closely coordinate fiscal and monetary policy, and retain exchange rate flexibility,” said Zehra Aslam, the lead author of the report.

The special section of the report focuses on financial intermediation and how to increase financing to the real economy by addressing structural impediments impacting the demand and supply of finance, including in credit markets. These impediments include extensive government borrowing from the financial sector that crowds out supply of credit to the private sector and deepens the sovereign-bank nexus. Intermediation is further limited by low domestic savings, and underdeveloped capital markets. Overall financial inclusion remains low, but good progress has been made to enhance it through ongoing digital innovations. Resolving these constraints in the medium to long term requires concerted efforts by the government, regulators, and other stakeholders.

https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/410d0506bba8afc6fd9d9541148bfe...

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 2, 2022 at 11:08am

Pakistan’s IT exports reach $1.94 billion within the first 9 months of the financial year 2021-22 (FY22)
However, due to political unrest, the country may not reach its desired target of $3.5 billion through IT exports.

https://pk.mashable.com/tech/15787/pakistans-it-exports-reach-194-b...


Pakistan’s Information and Communications Technology (ICT) exports have skyrocketed in the current fiscal year (2021-22). The IT export value continues to close down the $2 billion mark in FY22.

According to the latest data released by the State Bank of Pakistan, the industry maintained a solid rise of inflows, which totaled $1.94 billion from July to March in the current financial year 2021-22, representing a 29.2 percent year-on-year gain.

Since the Covid-19 outbreak, Pakistani enterprises and freelancers have been capturing the increased global demand for tech-related services as a result of remote working and e-learning arrangements. During that time, exports of ICT services increased in practically all areas, including software consulting, call centers, and telecom services.

The net exports connected to the IT industry exclusively, excluding additional services like call centers, were $1.47 billion in the first nine months of this fiscal year, accounting for 75.56 percent of the overall $1.94 billion in ICT exports.

In comparison to FY21, net IT-only exports increased in the current fiscal year. Last year, net exports were $1.12 billion, accounting for 74.72 percent of the $1.50 billion in export proceeds.

With a quarter remaining in the fiscal year 2021-22, IT exports are likely to reach more than $2.5 billion by the conclusion of the current fiscal year. Due to political problems in the country, Pakistan may not be able to reach the desired target of $3.5 billion which was set by the previous government.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 17, 2022 at 5:20pm

Who will be #Pakistan’s first #unicorn? As neighboring #India produced its 100th #startup unicorn this month, many in the Pakistani #tech startup community are waiting with bated breath for a local company to touch the aspirational $1 billion valuation https://restofworld.org/2022/pakistans-first-unicorn/

The Pakistani tech startup industry witnessed many highs in the last couple of years — record-breaking funding rounds, debuts by marquee global investors, and the emergence of founder “mafias,” among others. If all goes well, the world’s fifth-most populous country might bag another win soon: its first home-grown tech unicorn.

As neighboring India produced its 100th startup unicorn this month, many in the Pakistani tech startup community are waiting with bated breath for a local company to touch the aspirational $1 billion valuation. Local investors say that having a unicorn will validate Pakistan’s potential and cement its place as a startup destination.

“Right now, there’s no proof that the market is a destination; there are the inklings of it and it’s really exciting… But unicorn valuations, whether or not they actually matter, are important for signaling,” Kalsoom Lakhani, co-founder and general partner at Pakistan-focused early-stage fund i2i Ventures, told Rest of World earlier this year.

A unicorn could go a long way in convincing global investors who might be sitting on the fence, given the country’s uncertain political environment, Faisal Aftab, co-founder and managing partner of Pakistani venture capital fund Zayn Capital, told Rest of World. “It will solidify that Pakistan is here on the map to stay.”

Lakhani, who is hopeful that Pakistan could produce two unicorns this year, believes the first billion-dollar company in the country will be in the business-to-business (B2B) retail space. These businesses need huge amounts of money, which will compel them to raise more rounds. Just this year, Pakistani startups have raised over $163 million, $130 million of which has gone to e-commerce companies.

“Having two startups cross the unicorn threshold in such a short period of time will draw in a lot of later-stage investors to the market and also attract a lot more founders to start something in Pakistan,” said Aatif Awan, founder of Pakistan-focused early-stage VC fund Indus Valley Capital, which is an investor in two companies that are touted to be the frontrunners in the race to reach unicorn valuation: Bazaar Technologies and Airlift.

Bazaar Technologies, a marketplace that connects retailers directly with wholesalers and manufacturers, raised $70 million in a series B round led by Tiger Global and Dragoneer at a valuation of over $100 million in March. Tiger Global also participated in the first pre-seed investment round of Zaraye, a B2B supplies platform for the construction industry, in April. Retailo Technologies, a B2B app digitizing retail supply chains, raised $36 million in a series A led by Graphene. There are rumors afloat about B2B marketplace Dastgyr Technologies raising $45 million in its series A round at a valuation of over $100 million.

--------------

Despite the exuberance of the last two years, experts also warn that Pakistan might have to wait for its first unicorn sighting for some time, given signs of “cooling off” in funding later in the year. This month, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates – the largest interest rate hike in over two decades – which will impact the liquidity coming to emerging markets like Pakistan. “Lots of Pakistani founders are young and haven’t seen liquidity cycles as yet,” Aftab of Zayn Capital said. “It takes multiple liquidity cycles before you are able to stay and survive to get that unicorn status. Young founders who haven’t gone through a liquidity squeeze like 2008 are also going to see that money won’t be readily available.” Aftab believes that “the likelihood of a couple of busts here and there is higher over the next 18 months, than a bunch of unicorns popping up.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 30, 2022 at 4:53pm

Kalsoom Lakhani
@kalsoom82
1/Happy New Year! It's 2nd to last day of 2022, so that means time for the Q4 roundup of #Pakistan startup ecosystem funding, put together by our
@Invest2Innovate
Insights team. This was a ~slow~ quarter w/ startups in Q4 raising $14.9M, bringing our 2022 YTD total to $355M./

https://twitter.com/kalsoom82/status/1608898809987489795?s=20&t...

-----------------

2/ The good news: our 2022 YTD number just *barely* surpassed our 2021 YTD number ($354M vs $355M), BUT it still did (woo!). The bad news: pace of funding slowed down significantly towards end of year -- in Q4 we raised just 8.6% what we did in Q1. This is both push & pull/

--------------------

3/ a LOT of startups held off on raising at the end of the year in Pakistan & may open rounds early Q1 2023 (I know this qualitatively as a PK-focused VC who speaks to our portfolio companies often, this isn't a data-driven observation) & so too, a lot of VCs slowed down pace/

----------------

4/ towards the end of 2022, (us included!). My good friend
@faisal_aftab
rightly predicts macro uncertainty will continue in 2023 so buckle down, but I do believe good companies w/ good economics will continue to raise in 2023 (tho vals will go down & it will take longer./

-------------

5/ On Monday, our Insights team will put out a pretty epic EOY roundup for ur viewing pleasure, so stay tuned! You can read our roundup & subscribe for more: https://insightsi2i.substack.com/p/7-q4-2022-roundup
All raw data can be found here:

https://www.insightsi2i.com/

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