Russia Sanctions: India Profiting From Russian Oil Trade by Exporting Refined Petroleum

India is defying western sanctions to buy millions of barrels of discounted Russian crude oil, hiding their origin and exporting refined petroleum products with a big markup to make a huge profit. China has yet to increase its oil imports from Russia, according to news reports. Meanwhile, India's neighbors Bangladesh and Pakistan are abiding by western sanctions and paying much higher market prices to buy oil for their domestic needs, and hurting their people. Such double standards are not going unnoticed. 

India's Refined Petroleum Exports.Source: MarketWatch


India is importing large amounts of deeply discounted Russian crude, running its refiners well above capacity, and capturing the economic rent of sky-high crack spreads and exporting gasoline and diesel to Europe, according to MarketWatch.  “As the EU weans from Russian refined products, we have a growing suspicion that India is becoming the de facto refining hub for Europe,” said Michael Tran, global energy strategist at RBC Capital Markets, in a Tuesday note. Here’s how the puzzle pieces fit together, according to Tran:

"India is buying record amounts of severely discounted Russian crude, running its refiners above nameplate capacity, and capturing the economic rent of sky-high crack spreads and exporting gasoline and diesel to Europe. In short, the EU policy of tightening the screws on Russia is a policy win, but the unintended consequence is that Europe is effectively importing inflation to its own citizens. This is not only an economic boon for India, but it also serves as an accelerator for India’s place in the new geopolitically rewritten oil trade map. What we mean is that the EU policy effectively makes India an increasingly vital energy source for Europe. This was historically never the case, and it is why Indian product exports have been clocking in at all-time-high levels over recent months". 

Bangladesh and Pakistan are afraid to buy Russian oil for fear of western sanctions while American ally India feels free to do so. As Pakistani Finance Minister Miftah Ismail told CNN's Becky Anderson in an interview, “It is very difficult for me to imagine buying Russian oil. At this point I think that it would not be possible for Pakistani banks to open LCs or arrange to buy Russian oil". Similarly, Bangladeshi Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen told journalists: “You are seeing that they (western nations) keep bossing us and you (journalists) also encourage them. Every day, they come up with new issues. We used to call them development partners. They do not pay for the development but keep giving advice.” “We do not want to get into any problem. We want peace in the world,” Momen added. 

The West, particularly the United States, is turning a blind eye to India's actions when it comes to busting sanctions on Russia. Indian Prime Minister Narendra is openly funding the war in Ukraine by buying weapons and oil from Russia. At the same time, India's smaller neighbors feel intimidated by the threat of western sanctions if they follow Modi's example. Such double standards are not going unnoticed. 

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Comment by Riaz Haq on September 9, 2022 at 8:55pm

The Asian Century

The key to deciphering Jaishanker’s strategic intent in his Thailand comments lay in his use of the term “Asian Century.” This echoed the words of former Chinese reformist leader Deng Xiaoping, who, in a meeting with former Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1988, declared that “in recent years people have been saying that the next century will be the century of Asia and the Pacific, as if that were sure to be the case. I disagree with this view.” Deng went on to explain that unless China and India focus their respective and collective energies on developing their economies, there could, in fact, be no “Asian Century.”

While Washington may not have heard the subtle implications of Jainshankar’s words, Beijing appears to have done so. Almost immediately after the text of the Indian minister’s comments was made public, the spokesperson for China’s foreign minister declared that both India and China “have the wisdom and capability to help each other succeed rather than undercutting each other.” The takeaway from this exchange is that while both China and India view their ongoing territorial disputes as problematic, they are able and willing to keep their eye on the bigger picture — the ascendancy of the so-called “Asian Century”.

The fact is that India and China have been working toward this goal for some time now. Both are critical participants in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which envisions the growth and empowerment of a trans-Eurasian economic zone that can compete with the economies of the US and Europe on a global scale. Likewise, India and China are actively cooperating within the framework of the Brics economic forum, which is emerging as a direct competitor to the Western-dominated G7.

While it is possible for India to navigate a policy path balancing the US and China in the short term, eventually it will need to go all in on China if its aspirations for an “Asian Century” are ever to be met. This narrative is overlooked by those in the US pursuing zero-sum policies with India when it comes to China.

Given the destiny inherent in the collective embrace of an “Asian Century” by India and China, the US could well find itself on the outside looking in when it comes to those wielding influence in the Pacific going forward. One thing is for certain — the “American Pacific Century” which encompasses the period between the Spanish-American War and the post-Cold War era, where US military, political, and economic power reigned supreme, has run its course. Whether or not India and China will be able to supplant it with an “Asian Century” is yet to be seen. But one thing is for certain — the strategic intent is certainly there.

Scott Ritter is a former US Marine Corps intelligence officer whose service over a 20-plus-year career included tours of duty in the former Soviet Union implementing arms control agreements, serving on the staff of US Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf during the Gulf War and later as a chief weapons inspector with the UN in Iraq from 1991-98. The views expressed in this article are those of the author.

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 15, 2022 at 7:16am

Narendra Modi’s Outreach to Vladimir Putin Risks Putting India in US Crosshairs - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-15/modi-s-outreach-...


Modi so far has managed to thread the needle between the two sides. But “no matter how much India wants to maintain the Russia relationship,” says @horror06 (Indrani Bagchi), “this is going to get more difficult as time goes by”


As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets Russia’s Vladimir Putin and attends a summit with China’s Xi Jinping on Friday, he’ll need to avoid looking too chummy with the US’s two top adversaries.

Modi’s face-to-face meeting with Putin will take place Friday in Uzbekistan, where a host of leaders are gathering for a summit of the Chinese-founded Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a group intended to counter the US-led global system. At that event, he’ll also rub shoulders with Xi, whom Modi hasn’t met in person since late 2019.


With Russia’s war in Ukraine in its seventh month, India has emerged as one of the biggest swing nations. The US and its allies have so far largely avoided pressuring New Delhi over its close ties with Russia, a key supplier of weapons and energy. That’s partly to keep Modi on its side against China in part through the Quad, a grouping that also includes Japan and Australia.

Modi so far has managed to thread the needle between the two sides while advancing India’s own interests. He’s sought cheaper oil and much-needed weapons, to counter Beijing’s aggression along their disputed Himalayan border and more investments from the US and its allies seeking to diversify supply chains away from China.

But whether he can keep that up is another question. The early tolerance for India’s position, along with its insistence that it would take time to unwind its deep security relationship with Russia, is beginning to run into greater resistance as the US and its allies ramp up efforts to impose a cap on the price for Russian oil to cut Putin’s income.



“India’s neutral public positioning on the invasion has raised difficult questions in Washington DC about our alignment of values and interests,” said Richard Rossow, a senior adviser on India policy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Such engagements -- especially if they trigger new or expanded areas of cooperation that benefit Russia -- will further erode interest among Washington policy makers for providing India a ‘pass’ on tough sanctions decision.”

So far, the Biden administration has signaled it’s not interested in sanctioning New Delhi over its recent decision to buy the S-400 missile defense system from Russia. Turkey’s purchase of the same system deeply damaged US ties with the NATO ally.

Yet friction points are emerging. India has been pushing back on a price cap on Russian oil suggested by the US as its crude imports surged five times to cross $5 billion in the three months to the end of May.



Last week, the White House approved a $450 million package to upgrade the F-16 fighter jet fleet of India’s historic rival Pakistan -- a move New Delhi opposed.

And India also angered Japan by recently joining the Russia-led Vostok-2022 military exercises held around a group of islands known as the southern Kurils in Russia and the Northern Territories in Japan -- a territorial dispute that dates back to the end of World War II. India ended up scaling back its participation in the war games -- especially staying out of naval drills -- out of deference to Japan, but it left a mark.

One Japanese official, who asked not to be named discussing a sensitive topic, asked whether India would be comfortable if Japanese troops had participated in drills with Pakistan’s military but merely skipped exercises in the disputed region of Kashmir.

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 15, 2022 at 7:17am

Narendra Modi’s Outreach to Vladimir Putin Risks Putting India in US Crosshairs - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-15/modi-s-outreach-...


India’s Foreign Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment. Japan’s Foreign Ministry didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment made outside of office hours.

“The challenge for India is managing a declining relationship with Russia, nurturing a growing relationship with the US and securing its interests on all sides as a growing power,” said Indrani Bagchi, chief executive officer of the Ananta Aspen Centre, a research group on international relations and public policy. “No matter how much India wants to maintain the Russia relationship, this is going to get more difficult as time goes by.”



Modi appears aware of the optics toward the US. He was set to fly into Uzbekistan late on Thursday, missing an official dinner to kick off the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit that would’ve produced plenty of photo opportunities with both Xi and Putin, according to people familiar with the situation, who asked not to be named.



India’s partners in the West will be closely watching the tone of any statements after Modi’s meeting with Putin. One particular area of interest is trade: In the first seven months this year, India’s imports from Russia stood at a little over $13 billion compared with just $2 billion a year earlier, according to Commerce Ministry figures. India’s exports to Russia dipped to $700 million in the same period compared to $950 million a year earlier.

While India’s historical connection with Russia will be tough to break, officials in New Delhi are more wary of China. The “no limits” friendship reached by Xi and Putin earlier this year also may factor into India’s long term strategic planning as tensions with China continue to simmer along their contested Himalayan border despite a recent pull-back of troops.



“Increasingly there are suggestions that Russia will largely follow China, especially after the Ukraine crisis,” said Harsh Pant, a professor of international relations at King’s College London. “And that is going to be one big part of the puzzle that India will have to solve.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 15, 2022 at 10:46am

The big picture: The SCO is a political, economic and security organization designed to counter U.S. influence, which Beijing and Moscow founded in 2001.

https://www.axios.com/2022/09/15/xi-putin-meeting-samarkand


It comprises leaders from India and Central Asia, including Kazakhstan, which was Xi's first stop on his three-day trip to Central Asia. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended the summit as well.

-----------

China's President Xi Jinping met with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit Thursday.

Why it matters: Their first in-person encounter since Russian forces launched their Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine marks a show of diplomatic support for the Russian president after Ukrainian troops forced his forces to retreat from much of Ukraine's northeast, even as Putin acknowledged that Beijing may have "questions and concerns" regarding the war.

Xi is aiming to bolster his standing as a geopolitical statesman in his first trip outside China since early in the COVID-19 pandemic before October's Communist Party leaders' meeting, when he's expected to secure a third term in office.
What they're saying: “We highly appreciate the balanced position of our Chinese friends in connection with the Ukrainian crisis,” Putin said in his opening remarks at the meeting, the New York Times reported.

“We understand your questions and concerns in this regard. During today’s meeting, of course, we will explain in detail our position on this issue, although we have spoken about this before," he added.
Putin also referred to Xi as a “dear and longtime friend," adding that Russia supports the One China principle and condemns the U.S.' "provocations" in Taiwan, per the Washington Post.
Xi did not comment on Ukraine or the perceived threat from NATO in his remarks at the meeting.
However, China released a statement after the meeting noting that it was "ready to work with Russia in extending strong support to each other on issues concerning their respective core interests," per the Times.
Worth noting: The Kremlin claimed in a statement ahead of Putin's trip to Samarkand that a senior official from the ruling Chinese Communist Party said during a visit to Russia last week that Beijing "understands and supports Russia," in particular "on the situation in Ukraine."

The state-run Xinhua News Agency said Li Zhanshu, the third-ranking member of the CCP, met with Putin, but it did not mention comments about Ukraine. It said Li pledged to "continue to work with Russia to firmly support each other on issues concerning each other's core interests and major concerns."
The big picture: The SCO is a political, economic and security organization designed to counter U.S. influence, which Beijing and Moscow founded in 2001.


It comprises leaders from India and Central Asia, including Kazakhstan, which was Xi's first stop on his three-day trip to Central Asia. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended the summit as well.
Iran announced earlier this week it would join the SCO, underscoring the growing alignment between the U.S.'s top adversaries.
Flashback: Xi and Putin last met in early February in Beijing, where they jointly announced a "no limits" partnership and the arrival of a "new era" of global politics — just weeks before Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

The Chinese leader backed the Russian president in warning against Western "interference" and a NATO expansion — which Putin later blamed in his attempts to try and justifying his forces' unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
Between the lines: Both Putin and Xi are now in more precarious situations than they were in February. The Russian economy is increasingly isolated by a tough Western-led sanctions regime, and the Russian army has recently suffered major setbacks in Ukraine after a successful counteroffensive by the Ukrainian military.


Comment by Riaz Haq on September 16, 2022 at 8:23am

Russian President Vladimir Putin told India's Narendra Modi on Friday that he understood New Delhi's concerns about the conflict in Ukraine and wanted it to end "as soon as possible", according to a readout of a bilateral meeting published by the Kremlin.

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-tells-modi-understands-indias-14230101...

The Indian prime minister told Putin on the sidelines of a regional security bloc summit in Uzbekistan: "I know that today's era is not an era of war, and I have spoken to you on the phone about this." He said democracy, diplomacy and dialogue kept the world together.

But Putin said Kyiv had rejected negotiations and was set on achieving its own objectives "on the battlefield".

"I know your position on the conflict in Ukraine, your concerns that you constantly express," he told Modi on the sidelines of a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.


"We will do everything to stop this as soon as possible. Only, unfortunately, the opposing side, the leadership of Ukraine, announced its rejection of the negotiation process and stated that it wants to achieve its goals by military means."

Russia controls around a fifth of Ukraine after sending its armed forces into its neighbour's territory from several directions in February.

It says that what it calls a "special military operation" was necessary to prevent Ukraine being used as a platform for Western aggression, and to defend Russian-speakers.

Kyiv and its Western allies dismiss these arguments as baseless pretexts for an imperial-style war of acquisition, and have urged Russia to withdraw unconditionally.

Putin had made similar comments to Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday, saying he understood Beijing's concerns about the conflict.

Russia is trying to forge closer ties with both China and India as Moscow faces isolation and onerous sanctions from the West over its invasion of Ukraine.

Both countries have stepped up their purchases of Russian energy - trading at a discount on world markets as Western countries buy less - and talked about building closer economic ties.

(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 21, 2022 at 7:52am

Senators seek secondary sanctions on Russian oil purchases that could irk India, China


https://worldoil.com/news/2022/9/20/u-s-senators-seek-secondary-san...

(Bloomberg) — A bipartisan pair of senators is pressing the Biden administration to use secondary sanctions to enforce a cap on the price of Russian oil.

The push comes as the US and Group of Seven nations seek to limit Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ability to fund his war in Ukraine.

Senators Chris Van Hollen, a Maryland Democrat, and Pennsylvania Republican Pat Toomey are working on legislation that would impose secondary sanctions on foreign firms that facilitate the trade of Russian oil and on countries that increase their purchases of the commodity.

The pair worked together before and co-sponsored the Senate version of the Hong Kong Autonomy Act that imposed sanctions on Chinese officials involved in the crackdown on dissent in the territory and was signed into law by Donald Trump.

“We have yet to effectively cut off funding to Putin’s war machine by diminishing Russia’s revenues from energy sales,” Van Hollen and Toomey, who are both members of the Banking Committee, said in a statement. “In order to successfully enforce the price cap, it’s clear the administration requires new authority from Congress.”

The legislation sets up a clash with the Biden administration, which has previously rejected secondary sanctions as a way to enforce the oil price cap. Biden’s team argues that the economic incentives of a cap are sufficient to induce cooperation and secondary sanctions would create tensions with nations such as India, which continue to buy Russian oil.

Buyer Incentives

“I don’t think you need secondary sanctions for this to work,” Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said in a Sept/ 6 interview with Bloomberg reporters in New York. “The incentives of buyers are aligned with the incentives of the countries that are putting in place the price cap.”

A Treasury Department spokesperson declined to comment. A person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations, said Treasury had been briefed on the framework.

But Congress has repeatedly steered the administration toward harder-line policies on Russia since its Feb. 24 invasion. The most prominent example was when the administration, under pressure from lawmakers, reversed its opposition to cutting off some Russian banks from the SWIFT financial messaging system.

Bilateral Strains

If passed, the legislation could provoke a major fight with countries such as India and China, which have ramped up their purchases of Russian oil and have reacted coolly to the idea of a price cap. The US has been careful in its interactions with India on the price cap, pitching it as a way to negotiate lower prices from Russia but steering clear of threatening penalties for failing to join the scheme.

Under the two senators’ proposal, the US and its allies would be required to impose a cap on the price of Russian seaborne oil by March 2023. The cap would then be reduced by one-third every year until it reaches the break-even price within three years, depriving Putin of any revenue above the price of production. The president can waive the price reduction if the administration determines it would cause the global price of oil to spike.

The cap would be enforced by secondary sanctions on any firms involved in the sale or transportation of Russian oil, including banks, insurance and re-insurance companies and brokerages.

The legislation, which has not yet been introduced, would also penalize countries found to be importing Russian oil, oil products, gas and coal above their pre-war levels.

Van Hollen and Toomey said secondary sanctions would give the administration the tools it needs to “hold accountable the financial institutions supporting those countries involved in rampant war profiteering from Russian exports.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 3, 2022 at 5:52pm

#Russia becomes #India’s 2nd-largest crude #oil supplier after #SaudiArabia. India’s September imports of Russian oil rose 18.5% from August reaching 879,000 barrels per day (bpd) of #Russian oil in September 2022.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/russia...


India’s September imports of Russian oil rose 18.5% from August after falling for two months, making it the country’s second-largest crude supplier after Saudi Arabia, according to energy cargo tracker Vortexa. The import of 879,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil in September is the second highest in a month ever for India after June’s 933,000 bpd.

“India may consider importing more Russian crude this quarter as refiners ramp up runs to meet the seasonal rise in domestic demand an ..

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 3, 2022 at 9:15pm

Suhasini Haidar
@suhasinih
Russia is India's second largest oil supplier, contribution to Indian imports now 21% , up from 1% before Ukraine war

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/russia-boun...

https://twitter.com/suhasinih/status/1577124600399659008?s=20&t...

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 27, 2022 at 7:42pm

NEW DELHI, Oct 27 (Reuters) - India's oil imports from the Middle East fell to a 19-month low in September while Russian imports rebounded although refining outages hit overall crude imports, data from trade and shipping sources showed.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indias-russian-oil-binge-se...

Iraq remained the top supplier while Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as the second biggest after a gap of a month, the data showed.

India's total oil imports in September fell to a 14-month low of 3.91 million barrels per day (bpd), down 5.6% from a year earlier, due to maintenance at refiners such as Reliance Industries (RELI.NS) and Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS), the data showed.

India's imports from the Middle East fell to about 2.2 million bpd, down 16.2% from August, the data showed, while imports from Russia increased 4.6% to about 896,000 bpd after dipping in the previous two months.

Russia's share of India's oil imports surged to an all-time high of 23% from 19% the previous month while that of the Middle East declined to 56.4% from 59%, the data showed.

The share of Caspian Sea oil, mainly from Kazakhstan, Russia and Azerbaijan, rose to 28% from 24.6%.

India has emerged as Russia's second biggest oil buyer after China, taking advantage of discounted prices as some Western entities shun purchases over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

"The discount on Russian oil has narrowed now but when you compare its landed cost with other grades such as those from the Middle East, Russian oil turned out to be cheaper," said a source at one of India's state refiners.

Imports for Saudi Arabia fell to a three-month low of about 758,000 bpd, down 12.3% from August, while imports from Iraq plunged to 948,400 bpd, their lowest level in a year, the data showed.

Imports from the United Arab Emirates declined to a 16-month low of about 262,000 bpd.

Higher intake of Caspian Sea oil has hit the share of other regions in India's imports in April-September, the first half of the fiscal year, and also cut OPEC's market share in the world's third biggest oil importer and consumer to its lowest ever.

In the first half of this fiscal year, Indian refiners also reduced purchases of African oil, mostly bought from the spot market. However, supply from the Middle East rose from a low base last year when the second wave of the coronavirus cut fuel demand.

Comment by Riaz Haq on November 4, 2022 at 5:38pm

#Russia Becomes #India’s Top Crude Oil Supplier, Overtaking OPEC Heavyweights #Iraq & #SaudiArabia. India received record-breaking 946,000 barrels per day (bpd) of #Russian crude in October. #UkraineWar #Modi #Putin | OilPrice.com https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Becomes-I... #oilprice

Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, India was a small marginal buyer of Russian crude oil. After Western buyers started shunning crude from Russia, India became a top destination for Russian oil exports alongside China.

Indian refiners haven’t expressed hesitation to deal with Russia—their primary incentive to buy has been the much cheaper Russian oil than international benchmarks and similar grades from the Middle East and Africa.

According to Vortexa’s estimates, India—the world’s third-largest crude oil importer—shipped in a record 946,000 bpd of crude from Russia last month, up by 8% compared to September. Total Indian imports increased by 5% month on month in October, Vortexa data cited by the Economic Times showed.

Of note was that Russia surpassed both Iraq and Saudi Arabia to become the number-one crude oil supplier to India. Russian crude accounted for 22% of all Indian imports last month, while Iraq’s share was at 20.5% and Saudi Arabia’s—at 16%.

Going forward, there will be a lot of uncertainties among buyers over Russia’s oil exports when the EU embargo enters into force on December 5.

Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), two of the biggest state-owned importers of Russian crude oil in India, have reportedly stopped looking for spot Russian crude oil supply set to arrive after December 5, as they await more clarity on the EU sanctions regime ahead of the deadline, including on the possibility of secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian crude.

India will also further diversify its oil imports to better prepare for future OPEC+ production cuts that raise oil prices and tighten supply, its Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said last month.

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