Comment by Riaz Haq on July 12, 2019 at 9:37pm

Restore Pakistan’s rivers, handle floods, droughts and climate change
Managing river systems can help Pakistan manage floods, deal with droughts, create engines for a green economy, as well as help mitigate greenhouse gas emissions more effectively and more cheaply than big dams, argue Hassan Abbas and Asghar Hussain

https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/2019/07/12/restore-pakistans-rivers...


A recent study published by Springer in 2019 – The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment (authored by 210 scientists from 22 countries), warns that these mountains could lose between one-third to two-thirds of its ice fields by 2100. Melting glaciers at this scale will initially result in greater river flows by 2050-60, increasing the risks of heavier floods, bigger landslides, excessive soil erosion, dam busts and silting of reservoirs etc. As the glacial melt begins to decline subsequently, that pattern is predicted to reverse, especially in the dry summer months, resulting in harsher droughts, and lower energy output from hydropower dams. But worst of all, tensions between neighboring communities and countries would likely increase over shared water resources.

Global warming due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions results in higher air and ocean temperatures. Warmer oceans mean more evaporation from the oceans, and warmer air means more moisture holding capacity of the air – resulting in bigger and heavier clouds, and bigger and heavier precipitation (rains and snow fall) events. Studies have also pointed out that higher energy in the atmospheric system is pushing the storms and clouds further north and south from the equator, depriving some regions which used to receive rains while increasing rains in others.

The case of Pakistan is unique due to the presence of the world’s tallest mountains in the north. On the one hand, the mountains would block the clouds from moving further north, and on the other, bigger and heavier clouds would drop heavier loads of water in the mountains, ultimately bringing more water into the rivers. Many scientific studies have predicted increased net precipitation in South Asia as a consequence of global warming.

In sum, Pakistani rivers will initially have more water in the drier summer months due to higher glacial melting until 2050-60, and thereafter much less; the wetter months, however, will see bigger and heavier clouds that would bring more water in the rivers; and, with more energy in the system, the frequency and severity of the extreme events, longer droughts and heavier flooding, would increase.

The current-day science, therefore, provides us with a basis to decide upon the dos and don’ts of a climate change strategy that has to deal with longer droughts, heavier flooding, and GHG emissions. What we need, therefore, is to (i) learn to live with larger floods; (ii) improve our capacity to survive longer droughts; and (iii) invoke engines of green economy that help reduce GHGs and enhance sequestration of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 12, 2019 at 9:37pm

Restore Pakistan’s rivers, handle floods, droughts and climate change
Managing river systems can help Pakistan manage floods, deal with droughts, create engines for a green economy, as well as help mitigate greenhouse gas emissions more effectively and more cheaply than big dams, argue Hassan Abbas and Asghar Hussain

https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/2019/07/12/restore-pakistans-rivers...

Let us start with flood management, and specifically the lessons learnt from the floods of 2010. These brought in an estimated flood volume of 48 million acre feet (MAF) – more than four times the combined capacity of all dams in the country, which inundated 14.8 million acres to an average depth of 3.28 feet (1 metre). The inundation in most districts of (Pakistan) Punjab and Sindh lasted from three to four months. The large extent and long duration of inundation points to the fact that the natural landscape of the Indus Basin has developed in a way that does not facilitate free drainage on the one hand. On the other, the landscape lacks the natural capacity to absorb floods. The scale of these floods cannot be handled with existing or even additional dams. Moreover, the hydrological regime predicted for the future has more silt to choke reservoirs, bigger flood waves threatening dam bursts and little water in summer to generate hydropower. Under such regimes, thinking of building more dams even for hydropower, let alone control flood, is a risky affair.

Many national and international studies after that 2010 floods concluded that structural impacts such as backwater flow from barrages, restricted flood-carrying capacity of rivers due to engineered dykes and levees, high embankments of canals in the flood plains, and destruction of wetlands and riverine forests for agriculture combined to cause river avulsions and levee failures. The engineering and development of the Indus basin, in other words, exacerbated the flood damages. The structures could only avoid disasters within their design capacity, but beyond that, they made people even more vulnerable.

Climate change has added a layer of uncertainty on the estimation of engineering design parameters such as ‘maximum probable floods’, which are generally based on historical data. Putting cascades of dams along the rivers and constructing higher dykes to restrict river’s flooding would only increase the damages in case of failure.

See Indus cascade – a disaster in the making

See Indus cascade a Himalayan blunder

Restoring capacity of riverine corridors

Management of riverine corridors and active flood plains is the key to managing large and frequent floods. What we need is to restore the capacities of riverine corridors to pass bigger floods, rehabilitate lost wetlands to absorb flood peaks, and regenerate forests in floodplains to break flood velocities and complement aquifer recharge. The estimated area of Pakistan’s riverine corridors and active floodplains is approximately 21,000 square kilometres as shown on the map. These areas are government-owned lands along 3,186 kilometres of the rivers with an average width of 6.6 kilometres. With proper management of wetlands and forests in this area, it could hold and recharge between 30 to 50 MAF of water during a flood.

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 29, 2019 at 9:42pm

#Thar #desert blooms in #Pakistan after #Monsoon2019. Farmers are tilling their land, planting seeds, and for first time in years, expecting a good harvest. Transformation of is attracting tourists to marvel at grass-lined roads in #Sindh | The Third Pole https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/2019/09/13/the-thar-desert-blooms-i...

Located in in the south of Pakistan’s Sindh province, bordering India to the east, the Thar desert is home to many varieties of indigenous trees, herbs, and grasses. It is the latter that provides feed for more than 6 million livestock.

One and a half month ago, heavy winds accompanied by soaring temperature hit the region. People migrated towards the barrage areas more than 200 kilometres away with their cattle. Now all that has changed. In the deep desert dunes have been covered by a greenish coverlet, trees have doubled & tripled their leaves, and the grass is growing with unrestrained enthusiasm.

Mr Khaku, who lives in the village of Dhorio, was weeding out grass from his land. He was thankful for the rain, and said that he had invested PKR 20,000 (USD 128) on his land, and intended to work for the next three months until the harvest in the last week of November. His family – he has seven children – seemed to be as enthusiastic as he was, working from sunrise to sunset. Every family member plays a role in cultivating the desert land.

When drought hits the people and animals face an acute shortage of fodder and cereal crops, as well as water scarcity. These lead to premature births among livestock, and the malnutrition rate increases among children under 5 years of age. Pregnant and lactating women do not get their proper amount of food. People are forced to migrate towards the areas where barrages have been built to find fodder and water for their cattle.

This year may be a year of hope, but nothing is certain, warned Bharumal Amrani, a folklorist and environmental expert. “Nothing can be said finally until the harvest. This time Thar has received enough rains, but there are other climatic challenges that may cause low yield.” Recent attacks by grasshoppers are an issue, and have the potential to cause a huge loss.
Local farmers like Nehal, though, are optimistic. He had been taking on labour work during the lean period to manage household expenses. But, after the rains, his family has returned to the land.

“I invested PKR 30,000 (USD 192) last year, but due to rainfall, we got only fodder for two months and couldn’t manage to return the loan payment. This year we welcomed a good shower, and hope this would give us a way to fulfil household needs until the next rains,” he said.
Despite the amount of rain, there is an issue about their timing. “Due to climate change there has been a in the monsoon, the desert received the first spell of rain almost a month late, and that may badly affect the harvest,” said Aakash Hamirani, a youth activist. Nevertheless the people are happy, blessing their fortune this year, and hoping it marks a change from the last few years of lean rainfall.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 9, 2019 at 8:05pm

#Climatechange triggers #Pakistan mass #migration. 700,000 migrating to big cities from villages annually. People in Thatta, Badin and Sajawal in Sindh province compelled to migrate to the nearby districts or the port city of #Karachi in last few decades http://v.aa.com.tr/1667231

Extreme weather patterns, shrinking agriculture, sea erosion, and lingering dry spells have caused widespread migration within Pakistan in the past decade, according to officials and local experts.

More than two million people were displaced by floods that inundated one-fifth of the country in 2010, triggering mass migration to cities from rural Pakistan.

Of that figure, almost 70% did not go back to their hometowns and permanently settled in big cities to make a living because of the destruction to their homes and farmlands, Ministry of Climate Change spokesman Muhanmad Saleem told Anadolu Agency.

He said seasonal, long-term and permanent migrations mainly due to drought and floods, had taken place in southern, southwestern, and northeastern Pakistan in the last 10 years.

About 700,000 people migrate to big cities from rural Pakistan annually on long-term, and permanent basis, he said, citing international surveys.

Pakistan recently has been placed fifth on the list of countries vulnerable to climate change by the Global Climate Risk Index for 2020.

Pakistan lost 9,989 lives, suffered economic losses worth $3.8 billion and witnessed 152 extreme weather events from 1999 to 2018, according to the Global Climate Risk Index.

The data also indicates the government, as well as the world, is not taking enough measures to cope with challenges and risks climate change poses to Pakistan.

Increasing vulnerable

Pakistan is annually losing more than $4 billion due to climate change disasters.

According to a report from the Climate Change Ministry, the country lost $80 billion from 1996 to 2016 because of climate change calamities.

The alarming fact is that climate migration is taking place in all four provinces -- Sindh, Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhaw (KP), and Balochistan -- and the northern Gilgit-Baltistan region.

“Almost 50% of Pakistan’s population is increasingly becoming vulnerable to climate change, which may trigger another wave of mass migration”, Saleem, who has specialization in climate change communications, observed.

The ministry has no official statistics but Saleem believed 15% to 20% of the country’s total 210 million population had moved to big cities from rural areas from the four provinces since 2010 floods.

“[The] last nine years have been the worst period for Pakistan in terms of natural disasters like floods, drought, decline in rains and heat wave. Over the years, these disasters have destroyed or damaged hospitals, schools, roads, sources of livelihoods in different parts of the country speeding up influx from rural to urban centers,” Saleem said. "A few years back, rural-urban population ratio was 40-60. Now it is fast becoming otherwise."

In Islamabad alone, he added, the city’s population increased to more than 2.2 million from around 500,000 in 2010.

Amar Guriro, a Karachi-based analyst who regularly writes on climate change and environment, supported the view putting the numbers of climate migrants at 30 million in the last 10 years.

A lingering dry spell, he said, had gradually shrunk the agriculture and herding in southern Thar desert and several districts of southern Punjab and southwestern Balochistan provinces, propelling a mass migration to the big cities in recent years.

“The three regions are more vulnerable because they totally depend on agriculture and herding, which depend on weather, and weather is marred by climate change,” Guriro told Anadolu Agency. “Prolonged summers, drought, decline in rainfall, extreme weather patterns and frequent heat waves, have become a new normal in several parts of the country damaging the local economy and demography”, he opined.

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 17, 2021 at 7:45am

Fitch Ratings Affirms Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) Credit at 'B-'; Outlook Stable. WAPDA makes up 95% of #Pakistan's #hydroelectric #power capacity and 24% of total capacity in 2020. #electricity #water https://www.fitchratings.com/research/international-public-finance/...


KEY RATING DRIVERS
'Very Strong' Status, Ownership, and Control: We maintain our 'Very Strong' assessment regarding WAPDA's ownership structure and control mechanism. WAPDA is a parastatal entity that operates based on the government's guidelines. The government owns 100% of WAPDA and has a tight grip on its overall operation, including financing. The Committee on Public Accounts conducts annual audits of WAPDA.

'Very Strong' Support Track Record: A favourable tariff scheme that covers financing and operating costs helps financial stability. WAPDA expects its fixed charges, which were equivalent to 95% of sales in 2020, to rise significantly in 2021, driven by an increase in capex. The government provides strong financial support, such as government guarantees (30% of debts) and loans that are ultimately incurred by the government, to ensure the entity's financial stability.

'Strong' Socio-Political Implications of Default: WAPDA is Pakistan's largest hydropower supplier. It accounted for 95% of the hydropower capacity in the country and is responsible for flood control and water supply. NEPRA plans to expand hydropower's share of total electricity generation to 35% by 2028, which will bolster the socio-implications of a default by the entity. We expect a severe service disruption should WAPDA fail because there is limited alternative hydroelectric capacity available.

'Very Strong' Financial Implications of Default: We view WAPDA as a proxy funding vehicle for the government in the power sector. The government currently provides a large share of financing for power-related capex, but the policy direction for WAPDA is to expand its own indebtedness without the government's commitment. This will increase the financial implications for the state should it default. The entity's parastatal status means a default will affect future lending and increase borrowing costs significantly for other government-related entities.

Funding Structure to Change: The entity plans significant capex in 2021-2023, while the funding structure will shift towards market sources, away from the government. WAPDA will contribute around 10% of total funding required for projects. We expect leverage to remain under 7x by 2025 from 4.9x in 2020, assuming that the periodic tariff reset is made without significant delay as planned each time. We expect WAPDA's net debt to equity to reach 1.0x by 2025 (2020: 0.2x) without equity injections.



DERIVATION SUMMARY
WAPDA's ratings are equalised with those of Pakistan (B-/Stable), reflecting our assessment of the four factors in our Government-Related Entities Rating Criteria, which results in a weighted score of 50. The ratings of entities with scores of 50 or more are equalised with those of the sovereign, regardless of their Standalone Credit Profile (SCP).

WAPDA's SCP is capped at the sovereign's IDR, given the central role of the government as a counterparty.



RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade:

An upgrade of Fitch's credit view on the sovereign may trigger positive rating action on WAPDA.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade:

A sovereign rating downgrade, weaker government links or lower socio-political and financial implications of a default may lead to negative rating action.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 29, 2021 at 10:03am

#California Has Some of #America’s Richest Farmland. But What Is It Without #Water? California farmers are selling their water for profits instead of growing crops amid severe #drought. #ClimateCrisis #Drought2021 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/28/climate/california-drought-farmi...

n America’s fruit and nut basket, water is now the most precious crop of all.

It explains why, amid a historic drought parching much of the American West, a grower of premium sushi rice has concluded that it makes better business sense to sell the water he would have used to grow rice than to actually grow rice. Or why a melon farmer has left a third of his fields fallow. Or why a large landholder farther south is thinking of planting a solar array on his fields rather than the thirsty almonds that delivered steady profit for years.

“You want to sit there and say, ‘We want to monetize the water?’ No, we don’t,” said Seth Fiack, a rice grower here in Ordbend, on the banks of the Sacramento River, who this year sowed virtually no rice and instead sold his unused water for desperate farmers farther south. “It’s not what we prefer to do, but it’s what we kind of need to, have to.”

These are among the signs of a huge transformation up and down California’s Central Valley, the country’s most lucrative agricultural belt, as it confronts both an exceptional drought and the consequences of years of pumping far too much water out of its aquifers. Across the state, reservoir levels are dropping and electric grids are at risk if hydroelectric dams don’t get enough water to produce power.

Climate change is supercharging the scarcity. Rising temperatures dry out the soil, which in turn can worsen heat waves. This week, temperatures in parts of California and the Pacific Northwest have been shattering records.

By 2040, the San Joaquin Valley is projected to lose at least 535,000 acres of agricultural production. That’s more than a tenth of the area farmed.

And if the drought perseveres and no new water can be found, nearly double that amount of land is projected to go idle, with potentially dire consequences for the nation’s food supply. California’s $50 billion agricultural sector supplies two-thirds of the country’s fruits and nuts and more than a third of America’s vegetables — the tomatoes, pistachios, grapes and strawberries that line grocery store shelves from coast to coast.

Glimpses of that future are evident now. Vast stretches of land are fallow because there’s no water. New calculations are being made about what crops to grow, how much, where. Millions of dollars are being spent on replenishing the aquifer that has been depleted for so long.

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 21, 2022 at 4:24pm

A century of groundwater accumulation in Pakistan and northwest India

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-022-00926-1

The groundwater systems of northwest India and central Pakistan are among the most heavily exploited in the world. However, recent, and well-documented, groundwater depletion has not been historically contextualized. Here, using a long-term observation-well dataset, we present a regional analysis of post-monsoon groundwater levels from 1900 to 2010. We show that human activity in the early twentieth century increased groundwater availability before large-scale exploitation began in the late twentieth century. Net groundwater accumulation in the twentieth century, calculated in areas with sufficient data, was at least 420 km3 at ~3.6 cm yr–1. The development of the region’s vast irrigation canal network, which increased groundwater recharge, played a defining role in twentieth-century groundwater accumulation. Between 1970 and 2000, groundwater levels stabilized because of the contrasting effects of above-average rainfall and the onset of tubewell development for irrigation. Due to a combination of low rainfall and increased tubewell development, approximately 70 km3 of groundwater was lost at ~2.8 cm yr–1 in the first decade of the twenty-first century. Our results demonstrate how human and climatic drivers have combined to drive historical groundwater trends.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 30, 2022 at 9:07pm

Balochistan water storage increases

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2351918/balochistan-water-storage-incr...

The water storage capacity of Balochistan has reached 68,939 acre feet which will enhance the irrigation network and address water scarcity issues of the drought-hit province.

Under the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP), as many as 27 dams have been completed having storage capacity of 68,939 acre feet in various districts of Balochistan.

There are also ongoing small, medium, large and delayed action dams at various stages of implementation that will further add another 9.016 million acre feet (MAF) to the existing storage capacity.

After the construction of large reservoirs in the country, the storage capacity of water will increase several million-acre feet that will help store rain and floods water during monsoon.

An official of the Ministry of Water and Power told APP that the work was underway on various projects in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh to address the growing issue of water scarcity.

“The federal government is also providing funds for construction of various small, medium, large, and delay action and recharge dam projects in the country through Federal Public Sector Development Program (PSDP)”, he said.

These projects aimed at providing water for irrigation, agriculture, and drinking purposes which were being implemented by WAPDA and Irrigation Departments of four provinces besides the Public Health Engineering Department, Balochistan.

At present combined storage capacity of Mangla, Tarbela, and Chashma reservoirs is about 14.349 MAF. After the completion of ongoing projects i.e. Mohmand, Diamer Basha, and Nai Gaj Dams, the gross storage capacity will be increased to 23.988 MAF.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 18, 2022 at 7:33am

WAPDA
@wapda_pr
Alhmdulillah! Hub Dam filled to max level of 339.15 ft with 6,87,000 AF water storage; sufficient to release water for Karachi & Balochistan for 3 years. Safe passage of additional water through spillways in operation being monitored by Water Resources Ministry & WAPDA & Teams.

https://twitter.com/wapda_pr/status/1548573564546138112?s=20&t=...

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 18, 2022 at 4:29pm

The Balochistan government has declared 10 districts of the province as calamity-hit areas in view of casualties and losses to businesses and infrastructure by recent torrential rains and floods.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1700021/10-districts-of-balochistan-decla...


An official notification issued by the office of the Relief Commissioner and Provincial Disaster Management Authority here on Saturday said that the 10 districts are Loralai, Kalat, Mastung, Kachhi, Sibi, Qila Saifullah, Barkhan, Duki, Panjgur and Lasbela.

Meanwhile, heavy rains continued in different districts of northern and central Balochistan, causing more damages and rendering the people homeless. A large number of villages in Sibi, Lasbela, Bolan, Qila Saifullah and Loralai districts were washed away or submerged due to floods and overflowing rivers.

Over 30 houses were damaged in villages located on the outskirts of Sibi on Friday night.

“Our rescue teams and Levies personnel were making all-out efforts to clear water from areas where flood and rainwater has accumulated,” Sibi Deputy Commissioner Mansoor Qazi told Dawn, adding that residents deprived of their homes were provided with shelter and relief goods.

“Though floodwater is reducing in the three main rivers, more flooding cannot be ruled out in view of more rains,” he said.

Lasbela district was also getting more rains in different areas which caused damages to homes in Winder, Kanraj and Bela areas where standing cotton and other crops were badly damaged. “A cotton field was completely destroyed in heavy rains and flash flood,” officials of the local administration said.

“Around a dozen people were stranded in a village in Lakhra area. They were rescued by the local administration with the help of Navy personnel,” Rohana Kakar, additional deputy commissioner, said, adding that the Hub dam was almost filled to capacity and its water level wa being continuously monitoring.

Meanwhile, the death toll of the rain-related incident in the province has reached 77. Over 1,000 houses were washed away and 500 heads of cattle were swept away in the floodwater.

The National Disaster Management Authority has sent 1,000 tents to Balochistan for the rain-stricken people.

Probe ordered into poor construction of breached dams

Balochistan Chief Minister Abdul Qudoos Bizenjo has ordered a probe into the alleged use of sub-standard construction material after at least 21 dams either gave way or were greatly damaged due to floods, especially in northern districts.

He has ordered inspection teams to survey these dams along with experts.

The irrigation department surveyed 503 big and small dams in 34 districts on the chief minister’s orders and found that most of them have been filled to capacity, including Hub, Mirani, Ankara Kur, Shadi Kur and Subakzai dams.

The report said the water storage level in the dams across the province had reached 1,208,872 acre-feet after rains compared to a capacity of 1,637,084 acre-feet.

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