Is Modi's "Make in India" All Hype?

Some of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's supporters claim that his "Make in India" campaign has brought India to the verge of becoming a manufacturing behemoth 69 years after the nation's independence. Others claim India is already a manufacturing powerhouse. Let's examine these claims based on data.


Manufacturing Ranking:

While India now ranks 6th in the world in terms of total manufacturing output, it still sits at a very low 142nd position terms of manufacturing value added per capita, according to the United Nations Industrial Development Organization's Industrial Development Report 2016.  Pakistan's manufacturing value added is ranked 146th by the same report.

Manufacturing Output:

India's 3% share of the world's total manufacturing output puts it at a distant sixth position behind China's 24%, United States' 17%,  Japan's 16%, Germany's 7% and South Korea's 4%.

The UNIDO data shows that India's manufacturing value added (MVA) per capita at constant 2005 prices increased from US$155.73 in 2005 to $168.42 in 2014.   However, as percentage of GDP at constant 2005 prices in US$, India's MVA decreased from 15.10% in 2005 to 13.85% in 2014

UNIDO reports that Pakistan manufacturing value added (MVA) per capita at constant 2005 prices increased from US$135.03 in 2005 to $143.84 in 2014. Its  MVA as percentage of GDP at constant 2005 prices in US$ decreased from 18.05% in 2005 to 17.41% in 2014.

India's manufacturing output declined 0.7% in April-June 2016-17

Make in India:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has recognized how far behind India is in the manufacturing sector. His government's highly publicized "Make in India" is designed to Change that.

What does India, or for that matter any other developing country, need to boost its manufacturing output? Most experts agree on two essential pre-requisites for industrial development:

1. Energy and Infrastructure

2. Skilled Manpower

China's rapid industrialization over the last few decades has shown that the focus must be on the above two to achieve desired results. Has India learned from the Chinese experience? Let's examine this question.

Energy and Infrastructure Development:

"Infrastructure is the biggest hurdle to the ambitious Make in India program of the government," Standard and Poor Global Ratings Credit Analyst Abhishek Dangra told reporters on a conference call,  according to India's Economic Times publication.

"The government is scaling up spending, but its heavy debt burden could derail its ambitions to improve public infrastructure," the Standard and Poor report said.

India suffers from huge energy deficit. Over 300 million of India’s 1.25 billion people live without electricity.  Another 250 million get only spotty power from India’s aging grid, with availability limited to three or four hours a day, according to an MIT Energy Report. The lack of electricity affects rural and urban areas alike, limiting efforts to advance both living standards and the country’s manufacturing sector.


Skilled Manpower:

“India doesn’t have a labor shortage—it has a skilled labor shortage,” said Tom Captain, global aerospace and defense industry leader at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

The WSJ report said that over 80% of engineers in India are “unemployable,” according to Aspiring Minds, an Indian employability assessment firm that did a a study of 150,000 engineering students at 650 engineering colleges in the country.

NPR's Julie McCarthy reported recently that ten million Indians enter the workforce every year. But according to the Labour Bureau, eight labor-intensive sectors, including automobiles, created only 135,000 jobs last year, the lowest in seven years.

Impact on Agriculture: 

Prime Minister Modi's focus on manufacturing is talking away resources and attention from India's farmers who are killing themselves at a rate of one every 30 minutes.

Majority of Indian farmers depend on rain to grow crops, making them highly vulnerable to changes in weather patterns. As a comparison, the percentage of irrigated agricultural land in Pakistan is twice that India.

More than half of India's labor force is engaged in agriculture. Value added per capita is among the lowest in the world. Pakistan's agriculture value added per capita is about twice India's. This is the main cause of high levels of poverty across India.

Chinese Experience:

China has shown that it is possible to make huge strides in manufacturing while at the same time achieve high productivity levels in agriculture.

On the manufacturing front, China has taken care of the basics like energy, infrastructure and skilled manpower development to achieve phenomenal growth.

As part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) development, Pakistanis are learning from the Chinese to replicate success in manufacturing.

The first phases of CPEC are focused on building power plants, gas pipelines, rail lines, roads and ports at a cost of $46 billion. At the same time, China and Pakistan are also focussing on skills training via vocational schools and Pakistan-China Education Corridor. These projects will lay the foundation necessary to ramp up manufacturing in Pakistan.

Summary:

Both India and Pakistan want to emulate the success of China in the manufacturing sector. The Chinese experience has shown that development of energy, infrastructure and skilled labor are essential to achieve their manufacturing ambitions. The South Asians must move beyond hype to do the hard work necessary for it. Pakistan is working with China via CPEC to make progress toward becoming a manufacturing powerhouse.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Auto Industry in India and Pakistan

UN Industrial Development Report 2016

Indian Farmer Suicides

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Robust Energy Demand Growth in Pakistan

Human Capital Development in Pakistan

Views: 1652

Comment by Riaz Haq on February 16, 2017 at 9:47am

Tycoon Rajiv Bajaj Warns Against 'Made In #India' Becoming 'Mad In India' #MakeinIndia #Modi http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/tycoon-rajiv-bajaj-warns-against-mad... … via @ndtv

MUMBAI: Peeved at hurdles being faced by his company to launch its quadri-cycle in India, industrialist Rajiv Bajaj today said stifling of innovation by regulatory agencies will turn 'Made in India' into 'Mad in India', taking potshots at the Centre's flagship manufacturing initiative.

"If your innovation in the country depends on the Government approval or the judicial process, it will not be a case of 'Made in India', but 'Mad in India'. After five years, we are still waiting for permission to sell our four-wheeler in the country," the Managing Director of Bajaj Auto told a gathering of IT industry executives .

Stating the quadri-cycle is being sold across countries in Europe, Asia and Latin America, Mr Bajaj wondered why a vehicle which is cleaner, fuel-efficient, safer and whose benefits are as "obvious as daylight", is facing troubles.

"This is the only country that has not given us permission to sell this vehicles. Because for some reason it thinks if four-wheeler is worse, let people continue on three-wheeler," Mr Bajaj said.

It can be noted the Pune-based auto major, the largest three-wheeler maker in the world, has faced multiple hurdles in launching the ambitious vehicle in the country. Meanwhile, Mr Bajaj said his company is "anti-car", and sought to dismiss notions regarding two-wheelers being dangerous, saying it is reckless driving which makes two- wheeler riders most vulnerable.

"We feel people should either walk, cycle or use a two-wheeler. Cars are too big, too fast. they pollute, they congest and kill all of us on two-wheelers. People say two-wheelers are dangerous, My submission is two-wheelers are dangerous only when hit by a car."

Mr Bajaj announced his company is working on a new solution for urban mobility on the last mile connectivity which is safer and cleaner than the available alternatives, but declined to divulge additional details on the same.

He rubbished suggestions of getting back into manufacturing scooters, saying the company does not look it as an extension of manufacturing motorcycles and will continue to focus on its core strength.

"Media and analysts call it de-risking. It is not, it is gambling! this is playing darts, distraction and fragmentation of resources. You must be like (Mahabharat hero) Arjun, see eye of the bird and go for it," he said, adding Bajaj Auto wants to increase its 10 per cent market share of global motorcycle sales.

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 18, 2017 at 9:49am

Why #monsoon matters so much for #India - 66% pop are #farmers. 60% of land rain dependent http://Moneycontrol.com 

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/heres-why-the-mon...

Despite big strides in industry and services, two-thirds of Indians depend on farm-based income. Nearly 60 percent of the country’s farms lack irrigation facilities, leaving millions of farmers dependent on the rains.

The monsoon is critical to replenish 81 reservoirs necessary for power generation, irrigation and drinking. About half of India's farm output comes from summer sown kharif crops such as rice, sugar, cotton, coarse cereals.

The monsoon also refills 81 nationally monitored water reservoirs crucial for supply of drinking, power and irrigation water supply.

The June-September monsoon is likely to be 96 percent of the long-period average, the Met department said on Tuesday, a forecast that will be cheered by millions of farmers and the government alike.

The south-west monsoon, besides bringing relief from a blazing summer, serves as the lifeblood for the critical summer-sown kharif crop. Here's why the monsoon matters so much for India:

What is monsoon?

It is essentially a shift in the prevailing wind patterns. Drafts of breeze from the south Pacific travel northwards, carrying moisture along the way. It traverses nearly 8,000 km before reaching the Asian land mass, resulting in rainfall and offering respite from a sweltering summer.

How is it distributed across India?

Kerala is the south-west monsoon’s first port of landfall in mainland India. It arrives in Kerala in the first of week of June, having covered Andaman and Nicobar islands a week before. After hitting Kerala, it breaks out into two branches: one over the Bay of Bengal and the other over the Arabian sea. In a normal year, it covers the entire country in a month. It hits Maharashtra around June 15 and Delhi around June 29 before travelling further north-west.
Is monsoon essentially an Asian phenomenon?

No. Monsoons happen in the world’s other regions too such as Europe, Chile, Africa and North America.

How is the monsoon’s progress recorded?

Satellite images now allow weather scientists to fairly monitor monsoon’s course and quantum. According to the Met’s classification, the monsoon is considered normal if rains are between 96-104 percent of the 50-year average rainfall of 89 cms. The monsoon is taken to be below normal if rains are between 90–96 percent. If less than 90, it is considered deficient.

Why is the monsoon so important for India?

Despite big strides in industry and services, two-thirds of Indians depend on farm-based income. Nearly 60 percent of the country’s farms lack irrigation facilities, leaving millions of farmers dependent on the rains.

The monsoon is critical to replenish 81 reservoirs necessary for power generation, irrigation and drinking. About half of India's farm output comes from summer sown kharif crops such as rice, sugar, cotton, coarse cereals.

The monsoon also refills 81 nationally monitored water reservoirs crucial for supply of drinking, power and irrigation water supply.

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 18, 2017 at 4:55pm

#India privatizing #defense industry as part of $11 billion sale of assets to cut #arms imports https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-18/aircraft-carrier... … via @business

Want to buy a stake in an aircraft-carrier builder? How about a fighter-jet maker?

India is about to start an $11 billion sale of government assets, including holdings in the shipyard and factories that supply India’s military, offering investors a share of some of the region’s more profitable manufacturers that are benefiting from soaring defense spending.

India is the world’s largest arms importer and Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to change that while at the same time raising money to reduce the fiscal deficit. Among the biggest stakes to be sold are in Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd., or HAL, which is trying to build a domestic fighter, and Cochin Shipyard Ltd., currently building India’s first home-made aircraft carrier. The shipbuilder has seen profit almost double in the last five years, while earnings at most big global shipyards have slumped.

As India builds its status in the region, “it will find it even more essential that it becomes self-sufficient in designing and manufacturing high-tech weapon systems," said Deepak Sinha, a consultant with the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation. Non-state investors can help make the arms-makers more efficient and focused, he said.

Modi has pledged to spend $250 billion by 2025 on weapons and military equipment for a nation that has territorial disputes with Pakistan and China. India makes about 70 percent of its defense purchases abroad and has topped the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s list of the largest defense importers for the last seven years.

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 19, 2017 at 7:48am

#India's #Monsoon Concerns Are More Evidence That India Is Still A #Poor #Agricultural Country via @forbes

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/04/19/indias-monsoon-...

The basics are that Indian agriculture is some 13% or so of GDP and that the sector employs some 50% of Indian labour. From which we can gain at least one useful lesson, that Indian agriculture is very much less productive than the other areas of the economy. By contrast American agriculture is some 1% of GDP and it employs some 1% of the population. That is, American agriculture makes about the same contribution to production as it does to the consumption of labour. That labour is therefore around and about as productive in that sector as is the average across the American economy. That India's agriculture uses much more of the labour than it produces as a share of GDP shows that it is less productive as a sector than the rest of the Indian economy.

But we can also go further than this. Basic labour intensive rainfed agriculture simply doesn't produce a lifestyle much above that of the rural peasantry. That's just because rural peasantry is what we call those living at the standard which labour intensive rainfed agriculture provides. And as long as such a large portion of the population are doing that work then the economy more generally is going to be a poor one.

One useful indicator of India becoming much richer will be when the monsoon announcements no longer interest very much. For when the rains don't affect the economy very much then obviously everyone must be doing more productive things than standing around in muddy fields.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 20, 2017 at 10:34pm

Is #Lockheed dumping obsolete #F16 on #India? - #MakeInIndia #Modi #BJP BBC News

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-40344566

Lockheed Martin and India's Tata Group have formalised an agreement to relocate the manufacturing of the most advanced F-16 fighter jets to India.
The effort is aimed at securing a multi-billion dollar deal from Delhi.
The announcement comes days ahead of Indian PM Narendra Modi's visit to Washington for a meeting with President Trump.
But some defence experts are accusing Lockheed of offloading obsolete aircraft on India.
What's in the deal?
India will be able to "produce, operate and export the multi fighter F-16 Block 70 aircraft", a joint release said.
"Contingent upon (the) US and Indian government agreement and approval, F-16 Block 70 aircraft would be produced exclusively in India," said a Lockheed Martin statement to the BBC.
"The F-16 Block 70, the next production version of the aircraft, would be the only F-16 version in production. As such, India would become the future home of F-16 production worldwide."
Many see the arrangement as a boost to Mr Modi's "Make in India" push, although it may take years to bear fruit.
Lockheed and Tata would have to win a formal bidding process to begin co-manufacturing.
Why does India need it?
India needs to replace over 200 aged MiGs that are already pushing the expiry date, experts say.
The Russian-supplied MIGs have faced criticism over the years for alleged malfunctioning and frequent crashes that have killed scores of Indian pilots.
F16s have dominated the global market for years.Image copyrightLOCKHEED WEBSITE
Russians blame the crashes on poor Indian maintenance.
India has been trying to ease its traditional reliance on Russia by diversifying its buying options.
US to buy more F-35 fighter jets from Lockheed Martin
Lockheed Martin shares suffer after Trump F-35 tweet
Why are India's air force planes falling out of the sky?
India and France sign Rafale fighter jet deal
It bought French Rafales off the shelf in 2016 after lengthy and arduous negotiations.
Steeply escalating costs, poor after-sales service and a lack of sophisticated military equipment are the reasons cited by some analysts for the shift away from Russia.
The F-16s are said to be up against competition from Sweden's Saab group and its Gripen jets.
How cutting-edge are F-16s?
F-16s have dominated the global market for years. More than 3,000 of the multi-role aircraft are currently in use by 26 countries.
F-16 production in India will support thousands of jobs in the US, said a joint statement issued from Paris, apparently to counter expected criticism that the deal would fall foul of Mr Trump's "America First" policy.
They were originally conceived in the early 1970s as a "lightweight air-to-air day fighter".
Analyst Brahma Chellaney charges Lockheed Martin with dumping obsolete F16s in India.Image copyrightTWITTER
But some commentators in India are asking if the agreement with the Tatas is an effort by Lockheed to offload old technology in India.
"India a dumping ground for obsolete weapons system?" asked defence expert Brahma Chellaney on Twitter.
"Lockheed Martin signs F-16 deal with Tata. Why Tata? Because they make the noisiest car?"
Defence writer Rahul Bedi agrees with Mr Chellaney.
"F-16s developed in the '70s have already reached the optimum level of modernisation. The US Air Force has phased them out in favour of the much more advanced F-35s," he told the BBC.
Disaster response personnel walk next to the wreckage of an Indian Air Force MiG-21 Bison aircraft that crashed in Soibugh on the outskirts of Srinagar on August 24, 2015.Image copyrightAFP
Image caption

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 26, 2017 at 4:37pm

#Indian Army Vice Chief says #Pakistan's #defense #industrial base better than #India's. #military

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/pakistan-defence-industrial-...

Lt. Gen. Sarath Chand, Vice Chief of Army Staff (VCOAS), said the ordnance factories have not been able to keep pace with changing technology while "there is no competition whatsoever" and it is "an unsuccessful method of supporting our defence requirements".

A top Army general on Tuesday said Pakistan has a better military industrial base and exports more defence equipment than India, as he came down heavily on ordnance factories which manufacture weapons for the forces. Lt. Gen. Sarath Chand, Vice Chief of Army Staff (VCOAS), said the ordnance factories have not been able to keep pace with changing technology while “there is no competition whatsoever” and it is “an unsuccessful method of supporting our defence requirements”.
“I would even go to the extent of saying that Pakistan probably has a better industrial base, as far as defence production is concerned, than our country. In fact they export defence equipment abroad, definitely more than what we are doing,” he said.
He wondered whether the functioning of ordnance factories is because of the assured orders they have or the lack of accountability. “There is little or no research and development. They do not even have the capability of absorbing the industry through transfer of technology, and in some cases they have even failed to assemble products that have been imported from abroad,” Lt. Gen. Chand said.
“It is very hard to see ordnance factories changing in the present state. Overall it has become an unsuccessful method of supporting our defence requirements,” he said. He was speaking at the inaugural session of AMICON 2017, a two-day conference organised by the Army and the CII.

He noted that having indigenous industrial capability is very crucial for the country. He further cautioned that in an event of a war, one has to look abroad for its sustenance. “And very often, friends have let us down whenever the chips have been down,” Lt. Gen. Chand observed.
He said the ‘Make in India’ programme, the Defence Procurement Policy 2016, the strategic partnership model, and the creation of the Army Design Bureau (ADB), are major steps taken by the government for fast-tracking indigenisation in the sector.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 26, 2017 at 4:37pm

PM #Modi Calls The World To '#MakeInIndia,' But The Initiative Fails To Take Off. #India #BJP #Manufacturing

https://www.forbes.com/sites/suparnadutt/2017/07/24/missing-the-mar...

Just months after taking office in 2014, Indian Prime Minster Narendra Modi, standing below an immense logo of a lion, unveiled an economic vision for India to be a global manufacturing power. Investors should rush to “make in India,” he said. He claimed that his strong leadership would usher in economic revival by increasing the share of manufacturing in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to 25% by 2025, and creating 100 million new jobs by 2022. He vowed India would train apprentices by the hundreds of millions to service that manufacturing boom, reduce bureaucracy and improve infrastructure, paving the way for foreign investors.

Three years into his five-year term, although parts of India’s $2.3 trillion-strong economy are in better shape today than they were earlier — deficits are lower; businesses face somewhat less red tape — the contribution of the manufacturing sector to GDP is barely 16%, progress in improving the country’s inadequate roads, rail lines and ports has been slow and the job creation rate has fallen. Between, 2014 and December 2016, only 641,000 jobs were created. That is far too few, considering roughly one million people join the labor force every month.

Demonetization effect

Official GDP statistics show first-quarter growth in the economy, at an annual rate, was just 6.1% — unimpressive for a big, poor country with much catching up to do. Last November, demonetization severely set back the manufacturing sector. In the automobile industry, sales dipped 19% in December, the biggest monthly fall in 16 years. Sales of FMCG products fell 40-50%. The informal sector, which comprises over 80% of the economy, was the worst hit. Hundreds of small units downed their shutters, leaving thousands jobless.

Meanwhile, sectarian strife and instability, a worry in itself, also matters for the economy. Popular columnist Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar wrote in Times Of India that although Modi wants to sell India to the world as a global manufacturing hub, it will not be possible “if India’s fastest growing industry is lynch mobs.”

Also, the recent start of Goods and Service Tax (GST), supposed to create a single market, replacing lots of local taxes with national ones, was good to see, but the system, with six tax rates for different goods, is overly complicated and some in business complain it has been implemented poorly.

Almost nothing has gone as planned to attract investors to make in India.
Defense manufacturing

“Initially, the Make In India program was mainly focused on defense production, but little has happened there. The local production of big ticket items eludes us. Even as he was announcing this, PM Modi ordered ready to fly Rafale jets in France,” says Mohan Guruswamy, chairman of Centre for Policy Alternatives Society.

According to a new data released by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India is the world’s largest importer of major arms, accounting for 13% of the global total sales between 2012 and 2016. 
Lockheed Martin Corp and Saab AB have promised to build products in India, but not much has progressed due to red tape, reliance on state-owned companies and constant delays. While a manufacturing unit for assault rifles, a joint venture between India and Israel, was launched this month in Madhya Pradesh, the Army rejected the indigenous guns built by the Rifle Factory Ishapore after they failed the firing tests last month. This leaves India overwhelmingly reliant on foreign imports, mainly from Russia, the U.S. and Israel.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 28, 2017 at 7:08am

After Spending #Indian Rs. 36 billion, Made-In-#India Akash #Missile Fails Tests, Says Auditor. http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/3-600-crores-later-made-in-india-aka... … via @ndtv


3,600 Crores Later, Made-In-India Akash Missile Fails Tests, Says Auditor
The Akash and its newer variant, the Akash Mk-2, are a medium-range surface-to-air missile system designed to intercept enemy aircraft and missiles at a distance of 18-30 km.


As many as a third of the home-made Akash surface-to-air missiles have failed basic tests, says the country's national auditor, claiming the deficiencies of the missiles "posed an operational risk during hostilities."

The report of the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) is a big setback for the Make-In-India initiative which seeks to reduce India's dependence on imported arms. The report, given to parliament, says, "the missiles fell short of the target, had lower than the required velocity, and there was malfunctioning of critical units."

The Air Force has refused to comment on the report.

The Akash was produced by the state-run Bharat Electronics. The auditor says that though 3,600 crores have been paid to the manufacturer, none of the missile systems are installed at the six designated sites even though it has been seven years since the contract was signed.

The Akash and its newer variant, the Akash Mk-2, are a medium-range surface-to-air missile system designed to intercept enemy aircraft and missiles at a distance of 18-30 km. Tested extensively by the Indian Air Force, the Akash, which was first handed over in December 2008, was seen as a breakthrough indigenous system and in 2010, an additional six squadrons were ordered.

http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/3-600-crores-later-made-in-india-aka...

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 5, 2017 at 7:33am

Nikkei #India #Manufacturing PMI dips sharply in July 2017. #MakeInIndia #GST #Modi

http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-cm/nikkei-india-manuf...

Output slides following implementation of goods and services tax

PMI survey data indicated that the introduction of the goods & services tax (GST) weighed heavily on the Indian manufacturing industry in July. New orders and output decreased for the first time since the demonetisation-related downturn recorded in December last year, with rates of contraction the steepest since February 2009 in both cases. Consequently, companies purchased fewer quantities of inputs for use in the production process, leading to an overall decline in holdings of raw materials and semi-finished items. Cost burdens increased further, but factory gate charges were lowered as firms attempted to win new business.
At 47.9 in July, down from 50.9 in June, the Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was at its lowest mark since February 2009 and highlighted the first deterioration in business conditions in 2017 so far. The downturn was widespread across the three broad areas of manufacturing, with intermediate goods producers the worst affected.

Incoming new work dropped for the first time in the year-to-date and at the steepest pace since early- 2009. Anecdotal evidence indicated that the GST launch hampered demand. Different to the trend for total order books, new export orders continued to rise in July. That said, the rate of expansion softened from June's eight-month high.

Lower sales triggered an overall accumulation in stocks of finished goods. The rise in holdings of manufactured products was marginal, but interrupted a two-year period of ongoing depletion.

Discouraged by the downturn in factory orders, companies lowered production in July. The fall ended a six-month sequence of growth, and the rate of reduction was the most pronounced since the global financial crisis.

Fewer output requirements caused a reduction in purchasing activity. Although moderate, the contraction in buying levels was the quickest in eight-and-a-half years. Subsequently, inventories of inputs decreased.

According to Indian manufacturers, higher tax rates sparked greater cost burdens in July. However, the pace at which input costs rose was moderate and much weaker than its long-run average. Reflecting attempts to win new business in the face of a competitive environment, some companies lowered their selling prices. Overall, the rate of discounting was marginal. Prior to July, charges had increased for 16 months in succession.

After having increased in June, payroll numbers fell in the current reporting month. But, with the vast majority of panellists signalling unchanged headcounts, the rate of job shedding was marginal overall.

The 12-month outlook for output remained positive in July, with companies expecting more clarity regarding the GST to support growth. New projects in the pipeline and improved product quality were also mentioned as reasons underpinning positive sentiment. The level of confidence was at an 11-month high.

Commenting on the Indian Manufacturing PMI survey data, Pollyanna De Lima, Principal Economist at IHS Markit and author of the report, said: "Manufacturing growth in India came to a halt in July, with the PMI down to its lowest mark in almost eight-and-a-half years amid widespread reports that the sector has been adversely affected by the implementation of the goods and services tax. The reductions in output, new orders and purchasing activity were all the steepest since early-2009.

"The downturn was broad-based across all sub-sectors covered by the survey, with output scaled back among firms in the consumer, intermediate and investment goods categories amid falling order books.

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 18, 2017 at 8:11am

India simply cannot afford to boycott “Made in China”

Devangshu Datta, Scroll.in

https://qz.com/1079903/india-simply-cannot-afford-to-boycott-made-i...


A few days after the Doklam standoff erupted in June, a series of bizarre online advertisements interspersed my surfing experience. A televangelist yoga teacher-cum-entrepreneur started exhorting Indians to start boycotting Chinese goods. Presumably the Indian conglomerate that the yoga teacher fronts sensed an opportunity to expand its product lines.
The yoga teacher wasn’t the only person advocating the boycott of Chinese goods. The Swadeshi Jagran Manch, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), and other front organisations for the ruling dispensation all made similar high-decibel noises. The arguments they proffered in favour of Swadeshi are stupid.
Swadeshi is a stupid idea under most circumstances and especially so when it is applied to the India-China trade relationship. This is the argument its proponents offer:

China is an enemy.
India buys lots of Chinese goods.
If India stops buying Chinese goods, China would hurt more because it has a trade surplus with us.
Indians could start producing such goods domestically and, thus, stimulate the domestic industry.
If India stopped importing goods from abroad in general and produced everything domestically, it would have a strong economy.
On the face of it, this might seem a plausible set of premises connected by a glib chain of logic. So let’s address them one by one.


1. ‘China is an enemy’

Perhaps true. It is certainly very friendly with one of India’s neighbours, which New Delhi does not get on with. It also has live border disputes with India (and Bhutan) in multiple places. China has excellent relationships and huge economic ties with several other neighbours. In Facebook-speak, India’s relationship with some of these neighbours is complicated.

For instance, India’s relationship with Nepal has deteriorated because of objections over its new constitution, adopted in 2015. That year, it imposed an unofficial blockade of goods into the Himalayan nation to protest against it.
India’s relationship with Myanmar is more or less okay except that Naypyidaw was quite unhappy about Delhi tom-tomming surgical strikes against Naga insurgents in its territory in 2015.
Our relationship with Sri Lanka is so-so and likely to remain that way because of the ill-conceived military operation led by the Indian Peace Keeping Force in the island nation in the late 1980s.
With regard to Bangladesh, the enclave business has been largely sorted out with the historic land swap in 2015 but there are still disputes about river-water sharing. There is a knee-jerk tendency among Indians to scream about illegal Bangladeshi immigrants. There is also a knee-jerk tendency for Bangladesh to scream about being bullied by its bigger neighbour. There are also accusations that Indian separatists have havens in Bangladesh and that Bangladeshis are part of Islamic terror networks.

2. ‘India buys lots of Chinese goods’

Yes indeed, India buys all sorts of stuff ranging from solar power equipment and high-end electronics to plastic buckets, Hindu idols, and winter coats. China’s exports to India were an estimated $61 billion in 2016-17 while India’s exports to China were $10 billion in that period. So China has an enormous surplus with regard to India.
3. ‘If India stops buying Chinese goods, the Chinese would hurt more because China has a trade surplus’

Looking at India’s trade deficit with China in the context of gross domestic product or GDP, however, China has less exposure. Its exports to India amount to about 2.7% of India’s GDP (about $2.26 trillion in 2016, according to World Bank data) and about 0.5% of Chinese GDP (about $11.2 trillion in 2016, according to the World Bank). India’s exports to China amount to about 0.08% of Chinese GDP and about 0.45% of Indian GDP.

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    Posted by Riaz Haq on April 1, 2024 at 5:00pm

    Agriculture, Caste, Religion and Happiness in South Asia

    Pakistan's agriculture sector GDP grew at a rate of 5.2% in the October-December 2023 quarter, according to the government figures. This is a rare bright spot in the overall national economy that showed just 1% growth during the quarter. Strong performance of the farm sector gives the much needed boost for about …

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    Posted by Riaz Haq on March 29, 2024 at 8:00pm

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