Pakistan Middle Class Jumps to 55% of Population

Majority of the households in Pakistan now belong to the middle class, a first in Pakistan's history, according to research by Dr. Jawaid Abdul Ghani of Karachi School of Business and Leadership (KSBL).

It's an important tipping point that puts Pakistan among the top 5 countries with fastest growing middle class population in Asia-Pacific region, according to an Asian Development Bank report titled Asia's Emerging Middle Class: Past, Present, And Future. The ADB report put Pakistan's middle class growth from 1990 to 2008 at 36.5%, much faster than India's 12.5% growth in the same period.

Source: Dr. Abdul Ghani

From 2002 to 2011, the country's middle class, defined as households with daily per capita expenditures of $2-$10 in 2005 purchasing power parity dollars, grew from 32% to 55% of the population, according to a paper presented by Dr. Abdul Ghani at Karachi's Institute Business Administration's International Conference on Marketing. Dr. Ghani has cited Pakistan Standards of Living Measurement (PSLM) Surveys as source of his data.

Source: Dr. Abdul Ghani, Karachi School of Business


Growing middle class is a major driver of economic growth, as the income elasticity for durable goods and services for middle class consumers is greater than one, according to a Brookings Institution study titled The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries.

Among some of the manifestations of the rising middle class, Dr. Abdul Ghani reports dramatic increase in the ownership of television sets, refrigerators and motorcycles in households in all income deciles in Pakistan.  At the same the total household assets have nearly doubled from $387 billion in 2001-02 to $772.6 billion in 2010-11 in terms of 2005 purchasing power parity dollars.

Consumer spending in Pakistan has increased at a 26 percent average pace the past three years, compared with 7.7 percent for Asia, according to data compiled by Euromonitor International, a consumer research firm. Pakistan's rising middle class consumers  in major cities like Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad are driving sales of international brand name products and services.  Real estate developers and retailers are responding to it by opening new mega shopping malls such as Dolmen in Karachi and Centaurus in Islamabad.

Pakistan's transition to middle-class middle-income country over the last decade mainly during Musharraf years represents a major tipping point for the country's economy. It is likely to accelerate economic growth driven by consumption and draw greater investments in production of products and services demanded by middle class consumers. Some of it is already in evidence in booming sales of durable goods (TV sets, refrigerators, motorcycles) AND non-durables (cosmetics, shampoo, toothpaste, processed foods, etc) in Pakistan's booming FMCG sector.

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Comment by Riaz Haq on April 5, 2017 at 10:24pm

From being world leader in surveys, #India is now facing a serious #data problem: NSS #GDP estimate half of CSO's

http://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-commentary/from-being-...

The National Sample Survey (NSS), when launched by the NSSO in 1949, was the most ambitious household survey in the world, covering over 1,800 villages and over 100,000 households across India. The methods used by the NSS became the standard for household surveys the world over.

For example, the use of inter-penetrating samples — essentially, two independent samples drawn from the same population — to test the reliability of the survey results, was developed by Mahalanobis in a 1936 paper and remains a standard tool for survey design. The Living Standard Measurement Surveys the World Bank still carries out in many countries are a direct descendent of the NSS.


We quibble about whether growth was 7.1% or 7.4%, ignoring the fact that our two main sources of official consumption data, the NSS and the GDP data produced by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), now tell entirely different stories.
If you believe the NSS, GDP could be just about half of what it is according to the CSO. There are occasional academic debates about which one is correct, which no one in power pays any attention to. And yet, it is almost surely true that both estimates (and their growth rates) are off by a huge margin. More worrying, this divergence has been known for nearly 50 years (though it has grown a lot).

And though we are occasionally told that the NSS is understaffed, or that no one knows where the CSO got a particular number, there is absolutely no political interest in improving things. From being the world leader in surveys, we are now one of the countries with a serious data problem while people talk about the really good data you can get in Indonesia or Brazil or even Pakistan.

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 28, 2017 at 10:04am

Foodpanda generates additional Rs1bn for Pakistan's food delivery market

https://www.dawn.com/news/1281787

Foodpanda, Pakistan’s leading food delivery app, estimates that it has generated a staggering one billion rupees in additional sales for the restaurant industry in the last 12 months.

Along with growing adaptation of online service offerings in Pakistan, Foodpanda has accelerated the switch from offline food ordering to online ordering through its website and mobile app, benefiting both its customers and restaurant partners.

Nauman Sikandar, CEO of foodpanda Pakistan notes:

"Over the last three years we have helped customers to realise that they can spend their valuable time pursuing what they love, rather than preparing food at home. We have partnered with thousands of professional chefs at restaurants who prepare the most delicious meals of your choice for you, along with the convenience of having it delivered right to your doorstep."

He further adds:

“I am a foodie at heart and order from my favorite restaurants almost every day.I used to make tons of telephone calls each month to restaurants and the overall process was extremely painful! Finding the correct telephone number, reading out my order from a leaflet, communicating my address, and then the frustrating moment when I realise that they misunderstood my order through the phone."

"With Foodpanda, you simply log on to our app, select or discover your favourite restaurant and place your order with a few clicks. The app remembers all your details, so you only enter them the first time. Now I can place an order at my favorite restaurant within 30 seconds."

Foodpanda estimates over 7500+ restaurants established all across Pakistan, which it aims to add to its portfolio over the next few years.

Last year, the company grew its restaurant inventory to over 1,000 restaurants which is a 360 per cent increase compared to the previous 12 months.
Next to the local neighbourhood favourites, Foodpanda signed partnerships with national restaurant chains, such as Nando’s, McDonald’s, Sarpino’s and Ginsoy.

Over the last few years, Foodpanda has accelerated the growth of the food delivery market to around 20pc year on year, compared to original growth levels of around 7pc.

Raza Pirbhai, CEO of KFC remarks, "Foodpanda as a concept has taken Pakistanis into the future, not only from the customer point of view but also from the business end. With delivery being the fastest growing channel, KFC Pakistan has seen a rapid growth pattern in its online sales which is doubling over time."

"Together with foodpanda we plan to take KFC to every household in Pakistan over the next few months."

The figures in the following infographic represent Pakistan’s enriched and rapidly growing food ordering market and shows that foodpanda is the pioneer leading explosive growth and improvements in the industry.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 2, 2017 at 9:14pm

#Pakistan’s middle class continues to grow at rapid pace - The Express Tribune

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1398602/pakistans-middle-class-continu...


KARACHI: The country’s middle class is experiencing a rapid growth, which is evident from the rising demand for consumer durables, education and health, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

The central bank, in its latest report on the state of economy, said that the growth in the consumption pattern in the country is indicative of a budding economy.

“Several indicators show rising consumer demand in the country. These include a rise in consumer financing, an increase in the sale of consumer durables (automobiles and electronic goods) and a sharp growth in fuel consumption,” said the SBP.

“Furthermore, the IBA-SBP Consumer Confidence Index recorded its highest-ever level of 174.9 points in January 2017, showing an increase of 17 points from July 2016.”

While there are different parameters to count the number of people and households in the middle class or the middle-income group of an economy, consumer spending is one prominent barometer which provides a rough assessment.

According to prominent political economist S Akbar Zaidi, Pakistan’s middle class has grown rapidly in the last 15 to 20 years on the back of rising remittances sent home by expats and increase in foreign investment.

“The foreign investment, which came into the country after 2002, has had a trickledown effect on thousands of lives,” he said, adding that increased access to education and rising representation of people in political parties also reflected the growth in the middle class.

Zaidi said that Pakistan’s middle class is often referred to in the context of the number of consumer goods it purchases, ranging from washing machines to motorcycles.

Additionally, attempts to quantify the country’s middle class, largely based on income and the purchase of consumption goods, exhibit that 42% of the population belong to the upper and middle classes, with 38% counted as the middle class.

Middle class Pakistan

“If these numbers are correct, or even indicative in any broad sense, then 84 million Pakistanis belong to the middle and upper classes, a population size which is larger than that of Germany,” said Zaidi.

Meanwhile, Standard Chartered Middle East-North Africa and Pakistan Senior Economist Bilal Khan said that domestic consumption and consumer confidence are strong in the country.

“Monetary easing and lower energy prices can boost household discretionary incomes and, in this context, a strong and stable currency can also be expected to increase demand for imported consumer goods, both durables and non-durables,” he said.

On the other hand, in the central bank’s report, it was mentioned that electronic goods showed a sharp turnaround during first half (January-December) of current fiscal year, recording a growth of 14.5%, against a contraction of 8.2% during the same period of last year.

“Consumer durables like refrigerators (up 25%) and deep-freezers (up 54.4%) mainly contributed to this improved performance,” the report said.

“Furthermore, rise in energy supply in coming months, increase in consumer financing in a low interest rate environment, better market access for rural population, expansionary plans of leading players and foreign investment, all indicates a sustainable trajectory for the industry’s growth going forward,” it added.

Economic Bullshit

Separately, consumer financing posted an increase of Rs37.6 billion during first half of the current fiscal year. Auto finance continued to be the dominated segment, while personal loans showed a pickup as well.

“The net credit off-take of Rs13.7 billion of personal loans witnessed in first half of the fiscal year is the highest half-year figure in about a decade,” the report stated.

The SBP also highlighted a notable growth in the foods segment and a strong growth in the sub-segment of soft beverage.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 6, 2017 at 5:16pm

Consumption Patterns of Pakistan’s Middle Class: A Presentation By Dr. Jawaid A. Ghani

Dr. Jawaid Ghani (Professor of Strategy & Market Research) a renowned expert in the industry provided insights on “Consumption Patterns of Pakistan’s Middle Class” based on his latest research. His research stemmed from decades of studying data, and a conviction to portray the true reality of Pakistan’s economy, in particular the strength of consumption within an average household.

The presentation was held at the KSBL campus on April 18, 2017 in front of a fully-packed auditorium.

Dr. Ghani commenced from a very optimistic viewpoint, stating how we stand today at the precipice of pivotal turnaround in Pakistan’s economic strength. He spoke of the phenomena of lifestyle changes once the population has a degree of financial independence and how increases in ownership of basic home appliances suggest Pakistan is moving towards a tipping point of unparalleled growth.

Some key highlights of his talk were the significant shift in poverty line and movement across income brackets from 1990-2015; the rise of Asia’s booming middle class (replacing that in the West as their population levels off and they surpass basic living standards), such that these shifts in population (increasing adult, working bracket) and spending patterns implicate that consumption in Asia will be driving Global consumption in the next 20-30 years. Dr. Ghani built on these developments in contrast to the situation in neighboring China and India, to show how this will shape trade, economic dynamics, potential sub-contracting in the region with ripple effects across Africa and the world.

The lively Q&A brought forward questions on if this growth was sustainable (considering a lower general savings rate), what it means for upcoming businesses and entrepreneurs and how niche markets are the place of potential.

Dr. Jawaid Ghani’s research narrative is unique in that it offers a counter-narrative to Pakistan’s portrayal in the international media. Remarkably, The Wall Street Journal published an article based on his work in February, 2017. The story is available here: https://www.wsj.com/articles/pakistans-middle-class-soars-as-stabil...

In conversation with Dr. Ghani on the context of his work, he spoke of the importance of a deeper economic analysis and the need to address the gap between what is reflected in government policies and the true reality of consumption strength plus business potential. There must be access to objective information, not a subjugation to the international perspective. For this to happen, the need of the day is for young academics, researchers to take regard of the momentous change that is happening and to document it, so the essence in time is captured. An endeavor that is currently being taken up by students and faculty at KSBL.

http://www.ksbl.edu.pk/consumption-patterns-of-pakistans-middle-cla...

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1AUSBMgd8xT1ZGJdft0DcK37hDDo... 

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 21, 2017 at 2:10pm

#Pizza Hut set to open 75 new outlets to double its restaurants in #Pakistan - The Express Tribune #FastFood
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1414386/pizza-hut-set-open-75-new-outl...


KARACHI: American fast food giant Pizza Hut has decided to double its presence in Pakistan, the company and its local partner announced on Friday, adding that they would open 75 new outlets at an approximate investment of $3.4 million.

During a ceremony at the US Consulate in Karachi, a new franchise agreement was signed between Yum! Brands – a Fortune 500 company that owns Pizza Hut – and its local partner MCR. The deal was aimed at expanding Pizza Hut’s presence in Pakistan and adding to its network of 75 outlets over the period of next five years.

Robot waiter serves food in Multan’s pizza outlet
While the official press release stated that the agreement commits to an expansion of “150 new Pizza Hut units in Pakistan”, Pizza Hut (Middle East) General Manager Randall Blackford confirmed that the company is targeting a total number of 150 outlets across the country.

“We are currently operating at almost 75 units in Pakistan and we are going to double this number in the next four to five years,” he told The Express Tribune.

“Pizza Hut has a long list of first milestones, which include the first food product to be sold over the internet and the first food product to be delivered to outer space. Therefore, it is natural that we want to reach the milestone of first restaurant chain to have 150 outlets in Pakistan,” he added.

Inaugurated in December 1993, Pizza Hut was the first international franchise to enter Pakistan and also the first one to expand its presence in all four provinces of the country. It currently operates under MCR, a Pakistani company that is part of the services sector for the past 25 years.

“Pakistan is a great market for us and we have made so much progress over the years that we want to double it again,” said Blackford, when asked about the motivation behind expansion. “Additionally, Pizza Hut is a massive revenue-generating brand especially in this part of the world, hence our eagerness to capitalise on the market.”

Meanwhile, MCR President Aqueel Hasan said that the agreement presents a massive opportunity for Pakistan, adding that the country was looking at approximately $3.4 million on average in investment alone from the deal. “The amount of investment varies between the size of the proposed outlets, but the figure is anywhere from $300,000 to $600,000 per unit,” he said. Moreover, the agreement has been slated to generate around 3,500 jobs, excluding the spill-over effects from the expansion.

Social media battle erupts over pineapple on pizza

“This is a huge investment not only in monetary terms, but also it terms of skilled labour force available in the economy,” said Blackford. “Each outlet has a couple of dozen people working, so hiring them and training them – that is a massive investment in time.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 21, 2017 at 2:16pm

Fast Food: 2nd largest industry in Pakistan by Prof. Dr. Noor Ahmed Memon, (Dean KASBIT, Khadim Ali Shah Bukhari Inst of Tech).

http://www.foodjournal.pk/2016/July-August-2016/PDF-July-August-201...

Fast Food Industry in Pakistan is the 2nd largest in Pakistan. accounts for 27% of its value added production and 16% of the total employment in manufacturing sector with an estimated 180 million consumers, Pakistan holds the world’s eighth largest market when it comes to fast food and food related business. More than 1000 large scale food processing enterprises in Pakistan. 75% of rural based food manufacturers are in so called informal sector (difficulty in accessing raw material finance informal sector (difficulty in accessing raw material, finance skills, knowledge and management). Pakistan’s fast food sector is changing significantly with an inclined shift in life styles and traditional eating habits. According to the survey which was being made on the performance of the fast food business in Pakistan it was being revealed that an average consumer spends 42% of one’s income on food. Retail sales of processed foods is expand  ing by 10% annually. Supermarkets are gaining in popularity as a shopping venue and now account for about 10% of all retail food sales. In addition, Pakistan now hosts numerous western style fast food chains reflecting a rising popularity with such eating style. On an average calculation the fast food business in Pakistan and the trend of eating habits of the locals in the country is increasing almost 21% annually which means the growth of the fast food business in Pakistan is more than 20% on annual basis which makes it as one of the fastest growing businesses not only in Pakistan but even in the entire world as well.

http://www.foodjournal.pk/2016/July-August-2016/PDF-July-August-201...

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 21, 2017 at 2:31pm

McDonald’s first restaurant opened its door to the people of Pakistan in September 1998 in Lahore. This launch was met with unprecedented enthusiasm from the citizens of Lahore, who are known for their liveliness, vigor and penchant for quality food. Karachi opened its first restaurant a week after Lahore. Ever since we opened the doors of our restaurants both in Karachi & Lahore, we have been proud to provide our customers the same great taste, outstanding value and superior service that is synonymous with the Golden Arches all over the world.


There are now 44 restaurants in 16 major cities of Pakistan. (Karachi, Hyderabad, Lahore, Multan, Faisalabad, Kala Shah Kaku, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Jhelum, Peshawar, Quetta, Sahiwal and Bhera)


https://mcdonalds.com.pk/learn/mcdonald-s-pakistan

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 15, 2017 at 7:09pm

Baskin-Robbins #icecream chain coming to #Pakistan starting with 35 stores in big cities #Lahore #Karachi #Islamabad

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1435458/baskin-robbins-ice-cream-chain...


Baskin-Robbins, the world’s most known ice cream chain, has announced that it has signed a master licensing agreement with AHG Flavours (Pvt) Limited and aims to set up 35 Baskin-Robbins shops across Pakistan, with Lahore being the main focal priority.

“Baskin-Robbins is famous around the world for offering an extensive variety of 31 ice cream flavours to its guests and we’re looking forward to treating our customers across Pakistan with the same flavourful experience,” said AHG Flavours Chairman Irfan Mustafa.

“We look forward to opening our first Baskin-Robbins shop in the months ahead.”
AHG Flavours CEO Harris Mustafa, an industry veteran, welcomed Baskin-Robbins in Pakistan in his classic boldness, “Abhi to party shuru hoi hai,” meaning the party has just started.

Aussie globetrotter in love with biryani, Chaman ice-cream

Baskin-Robbins restaurants in Pakistan will feature the brand’s extensive selection of classic ice cream flavours, including Pralines n’ Cream, JamocaTM Almond Fudge, Mint Chocolate Chip and Very Berry Strawberry, alongside regional favourites such as Mango Tango and Tiramisu.

The brand will also offer its delicious range of custom ice cream cakes, frozen beverages, ice cream sundaes and take-home ice cream treats.

Six delicious recipes you must try this Ramazan

“We are pleased to be collaborating with Irfan, Harris and their team to begin developing the Baskin-Robbins brand in Pakistan by bringing our wide range of delicious ice cream flavours, cakes and other treats to Pakistani customers,” said Dunkin’ Brands International Vice President John Varughese.

Baskin-Robbins currently has more than 7,800 restaurants in more than 50 countries around the world.

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 14, 2017 at 8:15pm

The retail sector seems to be priming the economic pump. As per latest data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the overall output of the large-scale manufacturing (LSM) index grew by 5.69 percent in Jul-May FY17. (For more on LSM going forward, please read “L-S-M!” published August 2). 


http://www.brecorder.com/2017/08/03/362880/electronics-powered-on/

Among the top-three growth industries in the FY17 LSM index is ‘electronics’ – the other two being ‘iron and steel products’ and ‘automobiles’. Having a roughly 2 percent weight in the LSM index, the electronics industry grew by a recent high of 16.18 percent year-on-year in 11MFY17. 

The key electronics items illustrated in the graph have all grown between FY11 and FY16. However, the growth in refrigerators and air-conditioners has been the most prominent. In the more recent period, there is double-digit growth all around, except for the TV sets. During 11MFY17, production of deep freezers grew by 28 percent, refrigerators 24 percent; electric fans 21 percent, and air-conditioners 10 percent, on a year-on-year basis. 

In tandem with growth in domestic retail, the production of major electronics items is expected to continue its recent growth run. The middle-class, both its existing members and aspirants, tend to drive the purchases of white goods and electronics. If the economic growth gathers pace, the resulting higher per capita income will push the sales of both lifestyle and convenience products. Already, there is an apparent proliferation of housing schemes in both major and small cities – a sign of upward mobility – that is also a driving factor in appliance sales. 

While folks want comfortable lifestyles, not many households currently have that. As per Euro monitor, in 2016, mere 55 percent of households had a washing machine, 43 percent had a refrigerator, 20 percent had a microwave oven, and 16 percent had a deep freezer. There is obviously potential there, more so in rural areas where ownership of household durables is markedly lower than urban areas. Continued flows of remittances and growth in farming incomes are going to be driving forces for electronics sales. But who will feed all that demand? While almost all of the demand for electric fans and refrigerators is being met through local production, the same is not the case for air conditioners, LED TV sets, deep freezers, and washing machines. The domestic players are conscious of the need to invest in product design, functionality, and quality of service. But the price-conscious mass market doesn’t encourage them to really go the extra mile, thus hampering their ability to compete with the imported products.

Comment by Riaz Haq on January 26, 2018 at 10:27am

Imports of used cars in Pakistan jump 70pc

https://www.dawn.com/news/1385303/imports-of-used-cars-in-pakistan-...

KARACHI: Imports of used cars and minivans surged to 65,723 units in 2017, up almost 70 per cent from 38,676 units a year ago, latest data released by the auto industry shows.

The arrival of sport utility vehicles (SUVs) also increased 59pc to 7,758 units. Imports of pickups and vans registered a 9pc rise to 3,154 units.

The local industry maintains a record of each imported vehicle, whether new or old, through the Import General Manifest (IGM). Every imported car is logged in the customs’ IGM.

Toyota Vitz was most popular foreign vehicle in 2017

Toyota Vitz remained the most popular imported car in 2017. As many as 8,680 units arrived in 2017, up almost 40pc from a year ago. The volume of Daihatsu Mira swelled 73.1pc to 6,091 units.

Toyota Aqua imports climbed 96pc to 7,123 units from 3,622 units in 2016.

As many as 5,088 units of Suzuki Every were brought into Pakistan in 2017, up 14.6pc year-on-year. Imports of Daihatsu Hijet rose 34.5pc to 3,367 units.

The arrival of Suzuki Alto doubled to 4,158 units from 2,013 units a year ago. Suzuki WagonR imports surged 115pc to 3,574 units.

Imports of Honda Vezel and Toyota Land Cruiser stood 2,431 units and 3,301 units in 2017, up 57.5pc and 55.7pc, respectively, on an annual basis.

The overall volume of imported used vehicles grew 65pc to 76,635 units in 2017 from 46,500 units a year ago, data showed.

Low interest rates, increase in auto financing by banks and lifting of vehicles by investors for cab services like Careem and Uber boosted the imports of used cars as well as sales of locally assembled vehicles.

The government imposed regulatory duties on the purchase of foreign used vehicles in October, which largely failed to dent the overall annual import figures.

Sales of locally produced cars rose 20.4pc on a year-on-year basis to 103,432 units in July-December.

According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, overall imports of cars increased 64pc to $276 million in July-December.

Pakistan Association of Automotive Parts and Accessories Manufacturers’ former chairman Aamir Allawala said the local vending industry lost estimated revenue of Rs23 billion last year.

The estimate is based on taking the average local content per vehicle of Rs300,000 on imports of 76,645 units in 2017. This is in contrast to a loss of Rs14bn in 2016 with imports of 46,500 vehicles.

He said imports of used cars were the biggest impediment to investment by existing assemblers, new entrants and part makers.

He said the government has modified the procedure for the payment of duties and taxes to curb imports of used vehicles.

“Time has come for the existing players to make prompt investment in capacity expansion, improve localisation, introduce new models and reduce delivery time to eliminate the menace of premium,” he said, adding that an increase in production will boost tax revenue and create jobs.

In the near future, Hyundai, Kia and Renault will set up plants in the country.

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