Will Gwadar Grow to Become a Major Metropolis Like Shenzhen?

"We believe Gwadar is following in the footsteps of Shenzhen which represented a historic population rise, from a population of 30,000 in 1980 to 11 million people in 2017. Gwadar is poised to see massive population growth due to incoming industries, and we expect this to be one of the most strategic cities in South Asia." Hao-Yeh Chang,  China Pak Investments Corporation

Gwadar: The Next Shenzhen?

Gwadar is booming. It's being called the next Shenzhen by some and the next Hong Kong by others as an emerging new port city in the region to rival Dubai. Land prices in Gwadar are skyrocketing, according to media reports. Gwadar Airport air traffic growth of 73% was the fastest of all airports in Pakistan where overall air traffic grew by 23% last year, according to Anna Aero publication.  A new international airport is now being built in Gwadar to handle soaring passenger and cargo traffic.

Recent Aerial View of Gwadar Hammerhead Growth

Gwadar Property Boom:

The volume of Gwadar property searches surged 14-fold on Pakistan’s largest real estate database, Zameen.com, between 2014 and 2016, up from a prior rate of a few hundred a month. “It’s like a gold rush,” said Chief Executive Zeeshan Ali Khan to an Express Tribune newspaper reporter. “Anyone who is interested in real estate, be it an investor or a developer, is eyeing Gwadar.”

Chinese private investment company China Pak Investment Corporation has recently announced it is acquiring 3.6 million square foot International Port City project in Gwadar. It plans to develop a $150 million gated community to handle the influx of 500,000 Chinese professionals expected in Gwadar by 2022.

Proposed Gwadar International Airport

China Pak Investment Announcement:

On October 20, 2017, Pakistan's Geo TV news reported that China Pak Investment Company plans to increase its commitment to  invest $500 million in Gwadar in the first phase of a project aimed at building homes for around 500,000 incoming Chinese professionals expected in Gwadar by 2023. An earlier September 29, 2017 press release by China Pak Investment Corporation said as follows:

"The final master plan for China Pak Hills is currently being refined in Hong Kong, and will feature a range of state-of-the-art amenities including an open-air shopping boulevard; indoor shopping mall; restaurants and eateries; an international school and nursery; six community parks; indoor and outdoor sports facilities including tennis courts and a resident's gymnasium; a water desalination plant and recycling centre. China Pak Hills will also be home to the Gwadar Financial District, catering to the growing financial sector and adding much needed A Grade office space to Gwadar's growing market."

Gwadar Port Development:

Gwadar port's planned capacity when it is completed will be 300 to 400 million tons of cargo annually.  It is comparable to the capacity of all of India's ports combined annual capacity of 500 million tons of cargo today.   It is far larger than the 10-12 million tons cargo handling capacity planned for Chabahar.

To put Gwadar's scale in perspective, let's compare it with the largest US port of Long Beach which handles 80 million tons of cargo, about a quarter of what Gwadar will handle upon completion of the project. Gawadar port will be capable of handling the world's largest container ships and massive oil tankers.

Gawadar port is being built in Pakistan by the Chinese as part of the ambitious $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that will eventually serve as Hong Kong West for  growing Chinese trade with the Middle East and Europe.  CPEC will also enable Pakistan to bypass Afghanistan to trade with Central Asia through China across China's borders with Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.

India's Strong Opposition: 

Pakistan suspects that India's real objective in Afghanistan and Iran is to locate its intelligence agents under the cover of Chabahar port construction workers to sabotage China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and support Baloch insurgency to destabilize Pakistan. These suspicions were strengthened when Indian spy Kulbhushan Yadav, operating under the fake name Husain Mubarak Patel, was arrested in Balochistan in March, 2016. Yadav confessed he was operating as an undercover RAW agent from his base in Chabahar, Iran. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made no secret of his strong opposition to CPEC and his support for Baloch insurgents.

Chinese Commitment to Pakistan: 

Unlike US-Pakistan ties that have been essentially of a transactional nature, Pakistan-China relationship appears to truly strategic.  A recent book "The China Pakistan Axis: Asia's New Geopolitics" by American policy analyst Andrew Small quotes a top Chinese official as saying to his American counterparts that "Pakistan is China's Israel". Earlier, in 2011, some news reports quoted Chinese officials as warning that "any attack on Pakistan would be construed as an attack on China".  Growing Chinese investment commitments in Pakistan now exceed $100 billion, a further indication of the importance China attaches to Pakistan as one of its closest allies.

Summary:

China-Pakistan ties appear to be truly strategic.  The strength of Chinese commitment to Pakistan is increasing with growing investments in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor related projects. It is now highly visible in terms of the influx of the Chinese money and citizens into Pakistan. China's actions on the ground reinforce the credibility of Chinese officials' reported quotes describing Pakistan as "China's Israel" and warnings to the United States that "any attack on Pakistan would be construed as an attack on China".

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Comment by Riaz Haq on June 8, 2019 at 10:21am

Pakistan breaks ground on Gwadar Airport project

https://www.airport-technology.com/news/gwadar-airport-project/

The proposed airport, which is being funded by China, will cover an area of 4,300 acres. It will be capable of accommodating narrow-body aircraft, as well as big aircraft such as the Airbus A380.

The airport is one of numerous projects in Gwadar being financed by the Chinese government as part of its Belt and Road Initiative.

In order to finance the airport, a grant agreement between Chain and Pakistan was signed in May 2017.

“The projects in Gwadar are conducted under a framework agreement with NDRC and a MoU with MOFCOM and the Exim Bank. Unlike many of the other China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects in Gwadar, the New Gwadar International Airport is not financed by a loan from China but through a Chinese grant,” cpecinfo.com said in a statement.

Scheduled to become operational over the next three year, the new airport will be developed under the guidance of the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).

Once commissioned, it will become the second largest airport in Pakistan.

Pakistan believes that the new international airport, which will operate under the open skies policy, will help Gwadar to emerge as a regional economic hub.

The soil testing on the land, which started in January last year, has been completed through 300 boreholes made on various locations.

The aviation authorities have already approved the design and work plan for the airport.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 18, 2019 at 11:28am

Pakistan, China sign deal for two mega residential projects in Gwadar

https://www.geo.tv/latest/217833-pakistan-china-sign-deal-for-two-m...

ISLAMABAD: The China Pakistan Investment Corporation (CPIC) has signed a construction agreement with China’s state-owned mega construction conglomerate, BIDR to materialise Gwadar’s two mega residential and commercial projects.

The agreement was signed by CPIC Global Founding Board member Syed Zeeshaan Shah and BIDR Deputy Director and Chief Design Engineer Liu Bochun at a ceremony in Islamabad.

The agreement covers CPIC’s mega projects in Gwadar spread across 10 million square feet of prime residential and commercial real estate outfits, the International Port City and China Pak Golf Estates – the two approved projects by Gwadar Development Authority (GDA).

CPIC Global is the world’s first China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) -centric real estate developer with current under-development projects worth in excess of $500 million.

Speaking on the occasion, Shah said: “This is a momentous occasion for us. We are setting a new standard for community development in Pakistan and working with a global leader like BIDR will enable us to deliver our projects on time and on budget.”

On the current on-ground situation in Gwadar, Shah said the progress over the last 12 months in Gwadar has been phenomenal.

“The port and economic free zone are both fully operational now and 30 companies from Pakistan and China have committed to investing almost $500 million to develop their industries there. The dream of a Gwadar becoming a key economic hub of Asia is not far away now,” he added.

On the subject of Prime Minister Imran Khan’s recent visit to China, Shah said that the Chinese have invested in Pakistan at a time when others snubbed it. “China and Pakistan are all-weather friends and China reiterated this by committing to help Pakistan with the balance of payment situation.”

He added, “The trip was particularly encouraging for Gwadar with both sides reiterating the significance of Gwadar as the central pillar of CPEC and agreeing to further expedite development of the port and its auxiliary projects.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 30, 2019 at 11:17am

#China firm builds $250m industrial park in #Gwadar. It's an essential component of Gwadar Port development project under #CPEC. The free zone aims to improve #trade logistics, facilitate processing trade, and promote warehousing and financial services
https://nation.com.pk/15-Jul-2019/china-firm-builds-250m-industrial...

The China Overseas Ports Holding Ltd has invested nearly US $ 250 million and built a 25-acre modern industrial park in Gwadar port free zone.

The free zone is equipped with roads, water pipes, electricity, communications, security fence and waste disposal facilities, according to a report of China.org.cn here on Sunday. More than 30 Chinese and Pakistani enterprises have moved in the free zone, with three billion yuan of direct investment.

These include hotel, bank, insurance, financial leasing, logistics, overseas warehousing, grain and oil processing, aquatic product processing, and home appliances assembly. Their yearly output value will exceed five billion yuan once they all come into operation.

Both China and Pakistan agreed to build the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) during Premier Li Keqiang’s visit to Pakistan in May 2013 to promote energy and transportation infrastructure development, among other projects. During President Xi Jinping’s visit in April 2015, a closer bilateral cooperation was again highlighted.

A key element of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and an essential component of the Gwadar Port development project, the free zone aims to improve trade logistics, facilitate processing trade, and promote warehousing and financial services.

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 29, 2019 at 9:48pm

CM Balochistan inaugurates flagship housing project in Gwadar
By Manzoor Magsi

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2043166/1-cm-balochistan-inaugurates-f...

Gwadar-3, also known as G-3, is envisioned to be a symbol of Gwadar’s emergence as a regional trade and economic powerhouse.

Set to redefine Gwadar’s skyline forever, this flagship project will be situated on top of the majestic Koh-e-Batil hill with uninhibited three-sided ocean views of the magnificent Arabian Sea.

Moreover, its strategic location at the heart of Sangar Housing, adjacent to Gwadar deep seaport, makes it the finest and most prestigious address in Gwadar, and ultimately in Pakistan.

Eiwan Developments has partnered with Balochistan Energy Department to usher in a new era of development to the city, through the launch of its prestigious development project, G-3, making it an energy-efficient development.

A groundbreaking ceremony for the prestigious project was held during the Gwadar visit of Chief Minister Jam Kamal last week. The ceremony was also attended by Chief Secretary Dr Akhtar Nazeer and Secretary Energy Department Pasand Khan Buledi and other notable dignitaries.

The chief minister planted a tree at the project site to commemorate the green beginnings of the project, which is part of the Chief Minister’s initiative of contributing to environmental preservation. Eiwan Developments also contributed 2,000 plants.

Speaking on the occasion, Jam Kamal said the project marks the beginning of a new golden chapter in the development of Gwadar and Balochistan. He said the development of this region has been a key priority for his government, and it has been working tirelessly to make it happen.

“It gives me great pleasure today, to unveil this iconic state-of-the-art development project which will not only usher in a new era of growth and prosperity for the region, but it will most definitely help redefine the urban landscape of Pakistan.

“It is a testament to the progressive vision we share for this region under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project and I congratulate everyone involved in this great achievement,” he said.

Speaking on the occasion, Balochistan Energy Company Limited CEO Pasand Khan Buledi said this is truly Pakistan’s first-ever smart development project.

“We are extremely proud to be associated with this infrastructure marvel which shall surely become a benchmark in environmental sustainability, within the country and outside. We are deliberately working on encouraging environmentally responsible and sustainable developments in this region,” he added

Eiwan Developments CEO Muhammad Faiz Kidwai highlighted the unique attributes of the project in his presentation. “It was a challenge for us to design something which would do justice to Gwadar’s future potential and prospects as the crown jewel of CPEC.”

He said Eiwan has announced the launching of a business Incubator center in Gwadar for the benefit of the youth of Gwadar. CM appreciated the contribution of Eiwan for the locals of Gwadar.

A step towards the future of living, this state-of-the-art mixed commercial development is designed to be Pakistan’s first smart development. The development will use a host of smart technologies, including bioclimatic architecture, eco-friendly construction, alternate green energy provision, automated building management systems, waste treatment, and other environment-friendly features.

These technologies will help minimise the overall carbon footprint of the development, ensuring longer-term sustainability and providing a clean, green environment to its inhabitants and surroundings. The project is duly endorsed by Balochistan Energy Company Limited.

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 3, 2019 at 10:03pm

Tax holiday brings #Pakistan #Gwadar Port at par with Duty Free #Dubai, #Singapore. After new tax exemptions, raw materials can be imported into Gwadar duty-free
Experts say Gwadar will have edge over other regional free ports due to lower #labor costs
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1548496#.XW9EEo-Z7tM.twitter

As Pakistan moves to declare its deep-sea port of Gwadar a duty-free zone along the lines of the Dubai and Singapore models, officials and shipping gurus rule out any direct competition with regional free ports, but say those setting up industries will have most to gain from the tax exemption.
For well over a decade, Pakistan’s government has dreamed of transforming the small, strategically located fishing port of Gwadar in southwestern Balochistan province into Pakistan’s Dubai, with a duty-free port and free economic zone.
“The exemption will be exactly on the paradigm of Dubai free port or Singapore,” Mahmood Moulvi, adviser to the maritime affairs ministry, told Arab News. 
Finally, on Wednesday, the government body responsible for finalizing executive economic decisions, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC), approved a proposal for amendments to various laws that would provide exemptions from income tax, sales tax and custom duties to the Gwadar port for 20 years- until 2039. 
The proposal was submitted by Pakistan’s Ministry of Maritime Affairs and sought changes in the country’s tax laws in line with the concession agreement between the Gwadar Port Authority and China Overseas Ports Holding Company Pakistan.
“Those who will set up industries in Gwadar will have the major advantage,” he said.
The ECC now seeks legal cover for the amendments, and has asked Pakistan’s law ministry for a legal way out.
The aim is for Gwadar – located on the Arabian Sea near Iran and the mouth of the Arabian Gulf – to become a regional commercial, industrial and shipping hub, as part of the ambitious $61 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project.
Officials now hope that business activities in Gwadar will pick up from next year. 
“The extent of growth will be gauged when operations start,” Moulvi said, and added, “Growth momentum will pick up after the current economic slowdown, which is a global phenomena.”
As it currently stands, a one-time import of duty-free machinery is allowed into the port, but after the newly approved tax exemptions, raw material can also be imported free of tax.
“As long as they are not selling in Pakistan, it is a good idea,” Aasim Siddiqui, Chairman of the All Pakistan Shipping Association told Arab News. 
“The intention of the current government is to allow raw material free of duty...on the style of Dubai’s free port. In the Gwadar Free Zone, there will be no tax on processing,” he said.
Siddiqui, who is also a member of Pakistan’s Board of Investment, said the move would lure investment and create jobs in Pakistan’s Special Economic Zones (SEZ’s) which currently suffer from low investment.
On Saturday, Pakistan and China agreed to fast-track the pace of their industrial cooperation under the CPEC by utilising Chinese experience to ensure the speedy development of SEZs in the country.
“If duty and taxes (in SEZs) are the same as everywhere else in Pakistan, then why would someone invest in the SEZs?” he said.
So far however, the Dubai-Gwadar comparison was far too premature, Siddiqui said, with Gwadar’s current infrastructure barely supportive of “a single factory.” 
But if the Pakistani port was developed as a manufacturing base, he added, Gwadar would have an important advantage over other regional free ports: cheap and available labor.
“If you want to set up manufacturing industry in Pakistan, you will have labor availability here because Pakistani labor goes to Dubai, Oman and other gulf countries” Siddiqui said.
“They (other countries) have stringent labor laws and higher costs. The manufacturing cost would be lowest in Pakistan, that is for sure,” he said. 

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 9, 2019 at 7:53am

#China Vows to Make Coastal #Pakistani City of #Gwadar an #Economic Hub, Says it Will Create 47,000 Jobs in Next 7 years. #CPEC https://www.news18.com/news/world/china-vows-to-make-coastal-pakist...

The statement by China Overseas Ports Holding Company came as Pakistan government stamped a 23-year income tax holiday and exemptions on sales tax and customs duties for the setting up of the Gwadar Free Zone.

It (issuing of ordinance) is a turning point for Pakistan's economy and now billions of dollars will be invested in Gwadar, Zhang told the media persons. Currently, Karachi remained the single largest contributor to the national economic output.

Gwadar port is one of the focal points of the USD 60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). China is investing heavily in Balochistan under the CPEC. The CPEC, launched in 2015, is a planned network of roads, railways and energy projects linking China's resource-rich Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region with Pakistan's strategic Gwadar Port on the Arabian Sea. India has raised objection over the CPEC as it passes through the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).

The COPHC and its four subsidiaries are responsible for operating the seaport and its economic zones for a period of 23 years. The concessions had been guaranteed in the Gwadar Port Concession Agreement but the successive governments were not notifying them. However, President Arif Alvi on Monday promulgated two ordinances to set up China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Authority and Tax Laws Amendment Ordinance 2019.

I believe Gwadar will be the largest contributor to the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in seven years, said the chairman, adding that 95 per cent of the production in the Gwadar Free Zone would be exported.

We have completed the master plan of the Gwadar Free Zone that will be built in four phases over a period of seven years, said Zhang. Once the zone is fully developed in seven years, 47,000 jobs will be created for the locals, and its annual sales will be USD 1 billion," the COPHC chairman said.

On the troubles faced in reaching this point, the COPHC chairman said, Today is a big day and I had to struggle for seven years to secure these tax concessions, which had been promised in the Gwadar Port Concession Agreement. I had been running up and down for seven years and everybody made promises with me but nobody helped.

COPHC got the support of the National Development Council a joint civilian and military body upon whose directions the obstacles were removed in obtaining these concessions. So far, 41 investors have come forward to invest about USD 500 million in Gwadar Free Zone in the first phase, said the port operator. These industries are being set up in sectors of logistics, edible oil, piping, and halal food.

He said the USD 500 million investment would create 5,000 jobs for the locals in phase one alone, adding that the free zone developer had made it binding for the investors to complete the physical infrastructure in six months and start production within one year.

The port operator said that in order to promote advanced technology-based industries in the Gwadar Free Zone, the developer might offer free plots, cheap financing, and free housing facilities to such investors.

Comment by Riaz Haq on February 13, 2020 at 7:58am

#Pakistan plans to invest $10 billion in artificial islands off #Gwadar. Will be "tax free” and “weapon-free”. Will include a $5bn #investment in 15 #power plants, a $1 billion #desalination plant and Pakistan’s tallest building. Also 15,800 homes by 2025. http://www.globalconstructionreview.com/news/pakistan-plans-invest-...

Pakistan is to invest $10bn in building islands off the port of Gwadar in the shape of the moon and star of the country’s flag, the Daily Times newspaper reports.
The project, which is being taken forward by Islamabad in conjunction with the China Communications Construction Company (CCCC), will be part of the transformation of Gwadar set out in a 75-page masterplan prepared by CCCC in conjunction with Pakistan’s Ministry of Planning, Development & Reform and the Gwadar Development Authority.

The strategic aim is to create an engine of trade and economic development at the southern end of the $62bn China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The document sets a target of achieving a $30bn powerhouse and creating 1.2 million skilled jobs.

The masterplan envisages the creation of 15,800 homes by 2025, 47,600 by 2030 and 254,500 by 2050, allowing the population to increase from 138,000 in the 2017 census to about 2 million.

That population will have access to a range of amenities, including a theme park, museums, a theatre, a concert hall, an exhibition centre, as well as hotels, shopping centres and offices.

New infrastructure will include a $5bn investment in 15 power plants, a $1bn desalination plant and Pakistan’s tallest building.

The new district will also be Pakistan’s first “tax free” and “weapon-free” city, a ban that will be enforced by widespread CCTV systems, vehicle management, urban video and alarm networks.

Amanullah Yasinzai, the governor of Baluchistan, said: “This project will be a game-changer for the people in the region. It will bring a lot of development and significantly raise the standard of living of the people of Gwadar. I am hopeful that this project will bring huge employment opportunities for the youth of Baluchistan.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 4, 2020 at 9:19am

$230 million mega airport be a harbinger of #Gwadar development. #PM #ImranKhan has vowed that his government would complete the #CPEC project as per plan at any cost, adding the project was a sign of all-weather friendship between #Pakistan & #China. https://www.brecorder.com/news/40002897

Chairman China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Authority, Lieutenant General (retd) Asim Saleem Bajwa has said that the under-construction mega airport at Gwadar will be a harbinger of development of Gwadar city and Gwadar Port.

“Gwadar International Airport construction in progress,” said Bajwa in a tweet on Saturday, while sharing pictures of the project. “We reaffirm our commitment to launching and completing all projects in Gwadar in line with PM’s directive,” he added.

Bajwa informed that the project under construction cost about $230 million.

The Prime Minister Imran Khan on Friday vowed that the federal government would complete the CPEC project as per plan at any cost, adding the project was a sign of all-weather friendship between Pakistan and China. He added that every Pakistani would be benefitted from the mega project.

He directed concerned officials to further enhance the performance and capacity of the CPEC Authority for the early completion of the ongoing projects.

PM Khan expressed satisfaction over the performance of CPEC Authority and said the economic corridor was a best plan to bring socio-economic development which also assured the bright future of Pakistan.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 12, 2020 at 7:00am

#Dubai-like modern city to be developed over 100,000 acres near #Lahore, #Pakistan along #Ravi. Private sector investment of Rs5 trillion expected to resolve traffic congestion, water shortage and environmental pollution in Lahore – a city of 11 million. https://gn24.ae/a26c4f0931fd000

The Chief Minister of Pakistan’s Punjab province has a grand vision for the development of the province as he plans to build a “Dubai-like” modern city near Lahore.

Earlier this year, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan headed a meeting of Ravi Riverfront Urban Development Project (RRUDP) in Lahore and directed Lahore Development Authority (LDA) to prepare an integrated plan to meet the challenges of clean drinking water and unplanned construction.

Last year, PM Imran Khan sharing his new vision for future urban development, encouraged vertical construction to “allow for more green spaces as Pakistan is one of the most environmentally-threatened countries”. He also argued that “arable land is being eaten up by housing societies and has grave consequences for our food security in the future” which is why it is significant to allow buildings “to go as high as in other cities across the world” keeping in view international safety standards.

What environmentalists say?
Dr. Masoud Arshad, Senior Director, Water, Food and Climate at WWF-Pakistan, fears the new project along the River Ravi, could “put additional pressure on the existing natural resources and lead to shortage of underground water resources in near future”. He encouraged policymakers to focus on sustainable development. “We should study and implement the ‘Room for River approach’ as “the floodplain of the River Ravi should be kept intact to address the issues of floods (impacts of climate change) and to recharge our lost aquifers” he told Gulf News.

Ravi Riverfront Urban Development project
The project was originally envisioned in 2013 and Meinhardt (Pakistan) – part of global consultancy firm working in the country since 1992 – was hired to lead the consortium to conduct the feasibility study. “The environmental and social impact assessment highlighted the positive impacts of the project such as economic uplifting of the region and country, improved quality of life, socioeconomic and lifestyle enhancement, ecological uplifting of River Ravi, sustainable lifestyle, tourism and flood protection” according to Meinhardt Group. Some of the negative impacts, according to the firm, include loss of agricultural lands of about 76,684 acres and impact on almost 65 settlements that include a population of 80,000, but “these are expected to be temporary in nature and can be mitigated.” The group suggested a public-private-partnership model for project implementation and management.

Rehabilitate the Ravi River
The project of the new city to be built on the banks of the Ravi River proposed to rehabilitate and develop the dying River Ravi into a perennial freshwater body. To make Ravi riverfront urban development successful and sustainable, it was suggested that careful measures should be undertaken “to maintain the river’s water flow at a certain level, alleviate flooding and improve the river water quality through river training construction of barrages, weirs and water bodies to temporarily store excess surface water, and the introduction of wastewater treatment” to prevent the discharge of raw wastewater into the Ravi River.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 24, 2021 at 6:51pm

Pakistan’s Gwadar loses lustre as Saudis shift $10bn deal to Karachi

https://www.ft.com/content/88cfe78b-517f-41d9-97d1-9f7f540f517c


Saudi Arabia has decided to shift a proposed $10bn oil refinery to Karachi from Gwadar, the centre stage of the Belt and Road Initiative in Pakistan, further supporting the impression that the port city is losing its importance as a mega-investment hub. On June 2, Tabish Gauhar, the special assistant to Pakistan’s prime minister on power and petroleum, said that Saudi Arabia would not build the refinery at Gwadar but would construct it along with a petrochemical complex somewhere near Karachi. He added that in the next five years another refinery with a capacity of more than 200,000 barrels a day could be built in Pakistan. Saudi Arabia signed a memorandum of understanding to invest $10bn in an oil refinery and petrochemical complex at Gwadar in February 2019, during a visit by Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman to Pakistan. At the time, Islamabad was struggling with declining foreign exchange reserves.


The decision to shift the project to Karachi highlights the infrastructural deficiencies in Gwadar.

A Pakistani official in the petroleum sector told Nikkei Asia on condition of anonymity that a mega oil refinery in Gwadar was never feasible. “Gwadar can only be a feasible location of an oil refinery if a 600km oil pipeline is built connecting it with Karachi, the centre of oil supply of the country,” the official said. There is currently an oil pipeline from Karachi to the north of Pakistan, but not to the east.


“Without a pipeline, the transport of refined oil from Gwadar [via road in oil tankers] to consumption centres in the country will be very expensive,” the official said. He added that at the current pace of development he did not see Gwadar’s infrastructure issues being resolved in the next 15 years.

The official also hinted that Pakistan’s negotiations with Russia for investment in the energy sector might have been a factor in the Saudi decision. In February 2019, a Russian delegation, headed by Gazprom deputy chair Vitaly A Markelov, agreed to invest $14bn in different energy projects including pipelines. So far these pledges have not materialised, but Moscow’s undertaking provided Pakistan with an alternative to the Saudis, which probably irritated Riyadh.

Arif Rafiq, president of Vizier Consulting, a New York-based political risk firm, told Nikkei that a Saudi-commissioned feasibility study on a refinery and petrochemicals complex in Gwadar advised against it. “Saudi interest has shifted closer to Karachi, which makes sense, given its proximity to areas of high demand and existing logistics networks,” he added.

Rafiq, who is also a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington, considers this decision by the Saudis as a setback for Gwadar, the crown jewel of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the $50bn Pakistan component of the Belt and Road.

The Saudi decision “is a setback for Pakistan’s plans for Gwadar to emerge as an energy and industrial hub. Pakistan has struggled to find a viable economic growth strategy for Gwadar,” he said. Any progress in Gwadar in the coming decade or two will be slow and incremental, he added.

Local politicians consider the shifting of the oil refinery a huge loss for economic development in Gwadar. Aslam Bhootani, the National Assembly of Pakistan member representing Gwadar, said the move is a loss not only for Gwadar but for all of the southwestern province of Balochistan. He said he would urge the Petroleum Ministry of Pakistan to ask the Saudis to reconsider their decision.


The decision has shattered the image of Gwadar as an up-and-coming major commercial hub. In February 2020, the Gwadar Smart Port City Masterplan was unveiled, forecasting that the city’s economy would surpass $30bn by 2050 and add 1.2m jobs. Local officials started calling Gwadar the future “Singapore of Pakistan”.

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