Comment by Riaz Haq on December 25, 2022 at 4:38pm

CAREC ENERGY OUTLOOK 2030

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/850111/carec-en...

Regulatory Framework
Upon obtaining independence in 1947, Pakistan introduced several authorities to regulate the energy
market (Government of Pakistan 1958). The Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), which
served as a key player in the power sector, was unbundled in the 1990s to ensure the establishment
of a liberalized energy market and fair competition. As a consequence, both private operators and
state-owned enterprises became eligible to participate in the generation sector via a single-buyer
scheme. The Generation, Transmission and Distribution of Electric Power Act has introduced a newly
established independent authority: the National Electricity and Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA),
which regulates power sector companies and sets tariffs and operational standards. One of the key laws
on energy efficiency, the National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act, established a National Energy
Efficiency and Conservation Authority, with a mandate to set the strategic direction and national standards
for energy efficiency measures (The Gazette of Pakistan 2016).
Two authorities, the Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB) and the Alternative Energy
Development Board (AEDB), were established as the main institutions, providing support to private
energy project developers as well as investors (Government of Pakistan, AEDB 2006; The Gazette o

Pakistan 2012). Each board has been established for specific projects: the PPIB was created and tasked to
approve conventional generation projects, while the AEDB was responsible for the approval of renewable
energy projects.
Fossil fuel production in Pakistan is regulated by a set of rules for oil, natural gas, and coal, which govern
the process of obtaining permission for the exploration and production of fossil fuels. The Oil and Gas
Regulatory Authority (OGRA) is a primary regulator of the market and licensing authority. The Authority
issues licenses for coal, oil, and natural gas through a competitive bidding process. Coal and petroleum
development and production licenses are given for 25 years, with the possibility of renewal for 5 years.
With increasing market transparency and private sector participation in energy projects leading to
growing investments, the country has introduced a general concept for a competitive electricity market.
These new rules, already published by NEPRA and coming into force in 2022, are regulating the transfer
from a single-buyer model to a competitive model in the wholesale segment (Khan 2020).
The natural gas market, in contrast, is still operating under the single-buyer scheme, and a competitive
market for natural gas supply is yet to be introduced, as state-owned utilities act as single monopolies.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 25, 2022 at 4:38pm

CAREC ENERGY OUTLOOK 2030

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/850111/carec-en...

Regulatory Framework
Upon obtaining independence in 1947, Pakistan introduced several authorities to regulate the energy
market (Government of Pakistan 1958). The Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), which
served as a key player in the power sector, was unbundled in the 1990s to ensure the establishment
of a liberalized energy market and fair competition. As a consequence, both private operators and
state-owned enterprises became eligible to participate in the generation sector via a single-buyer
scheme. The Generation, Transmission and Distribution of Electric Power Act has introduced a newly
established independent authority: the National Electricity and Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA),
which regulates power sector companies and sets tariffs and operational standards. One of the key laws
on energy efficiency, the National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act, established a National Energy
Efficiency and Conservation Authority, with a mandate to set the strategic direction and national standards
for energy efficiency measures (The Gazette of Pakistan 2016).
Two authorities, the Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB) and the Alternative Energy
Development Board (AEDB), were established as the main institutions, providing support to private
energy project developers as well as investors (Government of Pakistan, AEDB 2006; The Gazette o

Pakistan 2012). Each board has been established for specific projects: the PPIB was created and tasked to
approve conventional generation projects, while the AEDB was responsible for the approval of renewable
energy projects.
Fossil fuel production in Pakistan is regulated by a set of rules for oil, natural gas, and coal, which govern
the process of obtaining permission for the exploration and production of fossil fuels. The Oil and Gas
Regulatory Authority (OGRA) is a primary regulator of the market and licensing authority. The Authority
issues licenses for coal, oil, and natural gas through a competitive bidding process. Coal and petroleum
development and production licenses are given for 25 years, with the possibility of renewal for 5 years.
With increasing market transparency and private sector participation in energy projects leading to
growing investments, the country has introduced a general concept for a competitive electricity market.
These new rules, already published by NEPRA and coming into force in 2022, are regulating the transfer
from a single-buyer model to a competitive model in the wholesale segment (Khan 2020).
The natural gas market, in contrast, is still operating under the single-buyer scheme, and a competitive
market for natural gas supply is yet to be introduced, as state-owned utilities act as single monopolies.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 25, 2022 at 4:39pm

CAREC ENERGY OUTLOOK 2030

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/850111/carec-en...


Policy Framework
Several governmental decrees have set the policy framework for the energy sector. The main government
priorities in power generation were outlined in the Power Generation Policy and Transmission Line Policy
in 2015 (Government of Pakistan, PPIB 2015). The priorities for renewable energy were set in 2019 in
the Alternative and Renewable Energy Policy (Government of Pakistan 2019). The government has also
published a National Energy Conservation Policy to promote the use of domestically available resources.
The following priorities were outlined in the abovementioned policy documents:
(i) Development of renewable energy. With the established target for renewable energy
generation in the electricity mix (up to 30% of nonhydropower renewables and 30% of
hydropower by 2030), Pakistan aims to attract more investment into its renewables sector
(Qasim 2020). The government has already started facilitating investments in sustainable
energy sources, mainly by encouraging lower tariffs via introducing competitive bidding and
offering tax benefits as well as incentives for local production of renewable energy equipment,
such as solar panels and wind turbines.
(ii) Improvement in energy efficiency. Pakistan aims to increase the energy sector’s profitability
and sustainability by reducing energy losses as well as increasing energy efficiency. Specifically,
to realize the country’s considerable energy-saving potential of, on average, 25% in key sectors
(industry, residential, transport, and agriculture), the NEECA will be implementing a number of
policies: developing necessary regulations, introducing the national scheme for certified energy
auditors, establishing national Energy Efficiency awards, etc.
(iii) Introduction of a competitive energy market. As stated in the country’s Power Generation
Policy, Pakistan aims to provide sufficient power generation capacity and high-quality energy
services at the least cost. The country plans to achieve that by enhancing fair competition and
market liberalization. In 2020, NEPRA approved a detailed framework and implementation plan

for a competitive trading bilateral contract market, the main goal of which is to establish the
competitive wholesale electricity market with multiple sellers and buyers by 2022.
(iv) Promotion of domestic exploration and production of oil and natural gas resources. Through
optimized pricing and licensing mechanisms, Pakistan wants to further develop its domestic
production of fossil fuels to become more self-reliant and reduce its dependence on imports
(the share of imports constituted around 40% of the total primary supply in 2018).

Forecast Methodology
One of the objectives of this country study is to present a detailed overview and analysis of future energy
market trends in Pakistan. For this purpose, three scenarios were developed, considering the country’s
regulatory framework, technological development, and consumer preferences, among other factors
(Box 17). Supply and demand, technology, carbon emissions, and investment outlooks were derived
based on these scenarios.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 25, 2022 at 4:39pm

CAREC ENERGY OUTLOOK 2030

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/850111/carec-en...


Policy Framework
Several governmental decrees have set the policy framework for the energy sector. The main government
priorities in power generation were outlined in the Power Generation Policy and Transmission Line Policy
in 2015 (Government of Pakistan, PPIB 2015). The priorities for renewable energy were set in 2019 in
the Alternative and Renewable Energy Policy (Government of Pakistan 2019). The government has also
published a National Energy Conservation Policy to promote the use of domestically available resources.
The following priorities were outlined in the abovementioned policy documents:
(i) Development of renewable energy. With the established target for renewable energy
generation in the electricity mix (up to 30% of nonhydropower renewables and 30% of
hydropower by 2030), Pakistan aims to attract more investment into its renewables sector
(Qasim 2020). The government has already started facilitating investments in sustainable
energy sources, mainly by encouraging lower tariffs via introducing competitive bidding and
offering tax benefits as well as incentives for local production of renewable energy equipment,
such as solar panels and wind turbines.
(ii) Improvement in energy efficiency. Pakistan aims to increase the energy sector’s profitability
and sustainability by reducing energy losses as well as increasing energy efficiency. Specifically,
to realize the country’s considerable energy-saving potential of, on average, 25% in key sectors
(industry, residential, transport, and agriculture), the NEECA will be implementing a number of
policies: developing necessary regulations, introducing the national scheme for certified energy
auditors, establishing national Energy Efficiency awards, etc.
(iii) Introduction of a competitive energy market. As stated in the country’s Power Generation
Policy, Pakistan aims to provide sufficient power generation capacity and high-quality energy
services at the least cost. The country plans to achieve that by enhancing fair competition and
market liberalization. In 2020, NEPRA approved a detailed framework and implementation plan

for a competitive trading bilateral contract market, the main goal of which is to establish the
competitive wholesale electricity market with multiple sellers and buyers by 2022.
(iv) Promotion of domestic exploration and production of oil and natural gas resources. Through
optimized pricing and licensing mechanisms, Pakistan wants to further develop its domestic
production of fossil fuels to become more self-reliant and reduce its dependence on imports
(the share of imports constituted around 40% of the total primary supply in 2018).

Forecast Methodology
One of the objectives of this country study is to present a detailed overview and analysis of future energy
market trends in Pakistan. For this purpose, three scenarios were developed, considering the country’s
regulatory framework, technological development, and consumer preferences, among other factors
(Box 17). Supply and demand, technology, carbon emissions, and investment outlooks were derived
based on these scenarios.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 25, 2022 at 4:41pm

CAREC ENERGY OUTLOOK 2030

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/850111/carec-en...

Supply and Demand Outlook
Rapid economic development and population growth in Pakistan are the main drivers for growth in
primary demand, which is projected to increase from 111 million toe in 2018 to 125–154 million toe in
2030, depending on the scenario. Demand has fallen during the COVID-19 pandemic, with nearly
a 4% decrease from 2019 to 2020, although rapid recovery and growth in demand is expected. In the
Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, primary energy demand grows significantly at an annual rate of
3.1%, as this scenario assumes low to moderate efficiency gains and limited reductions of T&D losses.
As for the Government Commitments scenario, annual growth is lower, at 1.4%, due to higher efficiency
gains and lower grid losses. The Green Growth scenario shows the lowest compound annual growth rate
among the three scenarios, with only 1.2% growth until 2030, assuming the greatest reduction of energy
intensity (Figure 68).
In terms of energy sources, natural gas remains the most important energy resource in all three scenarios,
driven by the country’s large fleet of gas vehicles, and by direct consumption in the residential and
industrial sectors.
Box 17: Scenarios for Pakistan’s Energy Sector
Business-as-usual scenario: Projected energy supply and demand, with current energy system and policies;
Government Commitments scenario: Projected energy supply and demand, considering individual priorities of
the Government of Pakistan; and
Green Growth scenario: Projected energy supply and demand, considering enhanced energy transition and
environmental policies.

Electricity generation in Pakistan is mainly dominated by fossil fuel sources, specifically natural gas and oil.
Alternative energy sources in Pakistan consist mainly of hydropower and nuclear, while the share of wind
and solar PV is much lower. The Government Commitments scenario assumes a large share of renewables
in the mix, followed by a decrease in fossil fuel-generated power. The BAU scenario assumes a slower
expansion of renewable resource generation, leading to prolonged reliance on fossil fuels in 2030. In both
Government Commitments and Green Growth scenarios, many natural gas- and oil-fired power plants
are decommissioned, and their capacities are replaced by renewable energy.
Nonetheless, a shift toward renewables is evident in all scenarios via the expansion of hydropower
capacities and the further expansion of wind- and solar-powered plants. The Green Growth scenario
assumes the most ambitious development of nonhydropower renewables, leading to a 20% share of
wind and a 10% share of solar PV in 2030. Under the Government Commitments scenario, the share of
wind reaches 16% and solar PV is 9%, compared to much slower developments under the BAU scenario,
where wind energy reaches 7% and solar PV only 2%. Furthermore, reflecting a broad push toward the
development of hydropower, the expansion of hydropower capacity is assumed in all scenarios, with the
highest being in the Green Growth scenario (43% of the total generation mix) (Figure 69).

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 25, 2022 at 4:41pm

CAREC ENERGY OUTLOOK 2030

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/850111/carec-en...

Supply and Demand Outlook
Rapid economic development and population growth in Pakistan are the main drivers for growth in
primary demand, which is projected to increase from 111 million toe in 2018 to 125–154 million toe in
2030, depending on the scenario. Demand has fallen during the COVID-19 pandemic, with nearly
a 4% decrease from 2019 to 2020, although rapid recovery and growth in demand is expected. In the
Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, primary energy demand grows significantly at an annual rate of
3.1%, as this scenario assumes low to moderate efficiency gains and limited reductions of T&D losses.
As for the Government Commitments scenario, annual growth is lower, at 1.4%, due to higher efficiency
gains and lower grid losses. The Green Growth scenario shows the lowest compound annual growth rate
among the three scenarios, with only 1.2% growth until 2030, assuming the greatest reduction of energy
intensity (Figure 68).
In terms of energy sources, natural gas remains the most important energy resource in all three scenarios,
driven by the country’s large fleet of gas vehicles, and by direct consumption in the residential and
industrial sectors.
Box 17: Scenarios for Pakistan’s Energy Sector
Business-as-usual scenario: Projected energy supply and demand, with current energy system and policies;
Government Commitments scenario: Projected energy supply and demand, considering individual priorities of
the Government of Pakistan; and
Green Growth scenario: Projected energy supply and demand, considering enhanced energy transition and
environmental policies.

Electricity generation in Pakistan is mainly dominated by fossil fuel sources, specifically natural gas and oil.
Alternative energy sources in Pakistan consist mainly of hydropower and nuclear, while the share of wind
and solar PV is much lower. The Government Commitments scenario assumes a large share of renewables
in the mix, followed by a decrease in fossil fuel-generated power. The BAU scenario assumes a slower
expansion of renewable resource generation, leading to prolonged reliance on fossil fuels in 2030. In both
Government Commitments and Green Growth scenarios, many natural gas- and oil-fired power plants
are decommissioned, and their capacities are replaced by renewable energy.
Nonetheless, a shift toward renewables is evident in all scenarios via the expansion of hydropower
capacities and the further expansion of wind- and solar-powered plants. The Green Growth scenario
assumes the most ambitious development of nonhydropower renewables, leading to a 20% share of
wind and a 10% share of solar PV in 2030. Under the Government Commitments scenario, the share of
wind reaches 16% and solar PV is 9%, compared to much slower developments under the BAU scenario,
where wind energy reaches 7% and solar PV only 2%. Furthermore, reflecting a broad push toward the
development of hydropower, the expansion of hydropower capacity is assumed in all scenarios, with the
highest being in the Green Growth scenario (43% of the total generation mix) (Figure 69).

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 26, 2022 at 9:58am

Pakistan, Uzbekistan sign MoUs to increase bilateral trade to $1bn


https://www.dawn.com/news/1728370/pakistan-uzbekistan-sign-mous-to-...


Pakistan and Uzbekistan on Monday finalised agreements to expand investment and increase bilateral trade to $1 billion.

To this end, Commerce Minister Naveed Qamar and Uzbek Deputy Prime Minister Khodjave Jamshid Abdukhakimovich signed nine Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs).

Talking to the media on the occasion, Qamar said the two countries had decided to implement the Preferential Trade Agreement from February 1, 2023.

In a press release issued afterwards, the commerce ministry said the two countries also discussed the implementation of the Agreement between Uzbekistan and Pakistan on Transit Trade (AUPTT) and Uzbekistan would notify rules in this regard in February.

They also decided to undertake a joint visit to the Afghan capital in the last week of January to discuss problems faced by Pakistani and Uzbek transporters.

“Both sides agreed to formulate a joint strategy for transit trade through Afghanistan. Regional understanding on Transit and Trade Framework to be prepared including joint fund/mechanism for the upkeep of road infrastructure in Afghanistan.”

Uzbekistan requested an off-dock terminal at Karachi and Gwadar ports and was assured full facilitation, the statement added.

Besides this, the countries also decided to hold trade exhibitions and prepare a strategy to cooperate in e-commerce.

The Uzbek delegation is scheduled to meet a number of officials during its visit, including Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev had visited Pakistan earlier this year. During his visit, a number of agreements and MoUs were signed by the two sides. An MoU was signed between Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Tourism and Sport and Pakistan’s Ministry of Religious Affairs and Interfaith Harmony to promote religious tourism. Another MoU was inked between the two states in the field of environment and climate change.

Pakistan and Uzbekistan have been closely collaborating at regional and international fora especially at the United Nations, Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, Economic Coop­eration Organisation, and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

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