State of Pakistan's Relations With Iran and India

What does Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan hope to accomplish during his Iran visit? What are the key issues bedeviling Iran-Pakistan relations? Cross-border terrorism alleged by both? Pakistan's relations with the Gulf Arabs? CPEC? Afghanistan? Gwadar? Chabahar? Indian RAW's use of Iran to launch terror attacks in Pakistani Balochistan? Who calls the shots in Iran? President Rouhani or the hardline Iranian Revolutionary Guard leaders?

Why is Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi continuing to threaten Pakistan with use of force, including use of nuclear weapons? Is this part of his election campaign to appeal to his base? Or will this intimidation go beyond elections if he wins a second term? Is Pakistan Prime Minister's hope of better ties with India under BJP just a mirage? Are analysts like Moeed Yusuf right about India waiting it out to achieve overwhelming superiority to eventually dictate term to Pakistan?

Viewpoint From Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses these questions with Misbah Azam and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

https://youtu.be/seNerO7_KsM

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Comment by Riaz Haq on May 16, 2019 at 2:35pm

Indian democracy is broken. Millions wait for election results in fear. 

"In an interview published last year, an exasperated Danish asked our leaders: “You want to make India a Hindu country? Would you kill all the Muslims or turn them out of the country? Please tell us to what extent you would go to finish Muslims?” He added: “I’m very uneasy. I have a feeling that if the BJP comes back then something big will happen. I cannot say what it is. I feel as if something will break in our country and we will not be able to fix it...The outrage and hate against Muslims are not just spreading like an epidemic on WhatsApp, Facebook and other social media platforms; they seep into our daily lives. y brother, who works for a multinational corporation, was recently forced to vacate his apartment in an upper-middle-class neighborhood in Mumbai. The proprietor offered him a rate higher than the market price because his Muslim family was making other tenants uncomfortable. A boycott of his family from all social events and engagements followed. He eventually had to leave his house — in the city where he grew up — simply because of bigotry. In the last year, I have heard Muslim friends, relatives and acquaintances discussing plans to relocate to friendlier countries or sending their children away to foreign universities if Modi is reelected. Certainly these are options only available to a privileged minority within the the community.But for most of the 190 million Muslims in India, roughly 14 percent of the population, India remains home. And the choice laid out before them by the political leaders is to accept living as second-class citizens in their own country. A victory for Modi on May 23 will be seen as a mandate to amplify this hate and the “othering” of Indian Muslims in a way that will affect our secular democracy beyond repair...It is not just the excesses of the ruling party and its marginalization of Muslims. It’s that many citizens have found this new language of hate liberating and acceptable. If they allow themselves to be blinded permanently, Indian democracy will cease to exist. And that is reason enough for each one of us to heed Danish’s words. Because if the world’s most populous democracy goes under, ripples will be felt across the world. ”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/05/16/you-know-indias-... 

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 16, 2019 at 4:59pm

#Modi Promised Better Days and Bridges. #India’s Voters Are Still Waiting.“govt was willing to play with numbers to score a point,” says Amiya Kumar Bagchi, an economist at Institute of Development Studies. Numbers “are wrong and possibly fabricated" #BJP https://nyti.ms/2WK4zAx

he has failed to spur significant economic growth, in part because of his disappointing record in reviving stalled infrastructure projects. The prime minister has championed rail, road and electrical links as a means of furthering development across this country of 1.3 billion people.

Although road-building has proceeded aggressively, infrastructure over all has fallen short. During the last three months of 2018, investments in new projects slumped to their lowest level during Mr. Modi’s tenure, according to the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, an independent research organization in Mumbai.

“The fall after 2016 has been quite severe,” says Mahesh Vyas, the center’s managing director. “He thought he could solve all those things with a magical wand.”

Slowing growth has reduced government tax revenues, forcing Mr. Modi to slash spending on public works. Private toll roads and power plants have stalled as banks have withheld finance after losses on previous ventures.

The prime minister inherited a troubling condition that has plagued India for decades: What economic growth the country generates does not produce enough jobs. He vowed to create 10 million jobs a year.

As a former chief minister of his home state of Gujarat — widely hailed as India’s most entrepreneurial — he was celebrated as a leader who could harness India’s natural resources, intellectual prowess and enormous work force toward industrializing.

But a signature program, Make in India, which aimed to help manufacturing, has produced a bumper crop of public pronouncements and scant hiring, in part because the nation’s patchy infrastructure has discouraged investment. The unemployment rate climbed to a 45-year high of 6.1 percent last year, from 2.2 percent in 2011, according to the government’s National Sample Survey.

Nonetheless, Mr. Modi has won the ardor of the masses with his appeals to Hindu nationalism and his military confrontations with India’s nemesis, Pakistan. He is widely expected to claim re-election after voting ends on Sunday.

But some of India’s troubles flow directly from Mr. Modi’s actions, not least his disastrous 2016 move to ban most Indian rupee notes in a bid to disrupt finance for terrorists and black marketeers. The government failed to have new notes ready, creating a crippling shortage in an economy dominated by cash.

“I cannot begin to explain the sheer stupidity of that,” says Jayati Ghosh, an economist at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. “What you did was suck the lifeblood from the market system. It was a huge crime on the Indian population.”

Mr. Modi’s lack of success in completing stalled infrastructure projects has left many rural people stranded far from jobs.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 21, 2019 at 9:50am

5 more years of Narendra #Modi will take #India to a dark place.If the Indian prime minister is returned to office, his sectarian politics will make #bigotry the defining ideal of the republic | Kapil Komireddi #Hindutva #Islamophobia #violence #terrorism https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/21/five-more-yea...

The refrain from Hindu voters has been identical: Modi has failed us, yes, but he's at least put Muslims in their place

None of the big promises that delivered Modi’s Hindu-first Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) an absolute majority in parliament in 2014 – the first time in 30 years that a single party was voted into power – have been honoured. Modi pledged to create 20m jobs annually. Today, the rate of unemployment is the highest India has known in 20 years. He enraptured young Indian voters with visions of what he called “smart cities”: facsimiles of Seoul and Singapore on the Deccan Plateau and the northern plains – clean, green and replete with skyscrapers and super-fast trains. There is nothing of the sort in sight. He vowed to purify the Ganga, “the river of India” as Jawaharlal Nehru called it. Five years later, it remains a stream of unquantifiable litres of sewage and industrial effluents.

Worse, democratic institutions have been repurposed to abet Modi’s project to remake India into a Hindu nation. The election commission, which has conducted polls in impossible circumstances since 1952 and is revered for its incorruptibility and fierce independence, functioned during this vote as an arm of Modi’s BJP, too timid even to issue perfunctory censures of the prime minister’s egregious use of religious sloganeering. The military has been politicised and the judiciary plunged into the most existential threat to its independence since 1975, when Indira Gandhi suspended the constitution and ruled as a dictator for 21 months.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 21, 2019 at 1:35pm

#India's Young and Well-Educated young #engineers, #doctors, #lawyers, chartered #accountants, #bankers and #journalists Are Marching to the Beat of #Hindu Nationalism whose early leaders publicly admired #Hitler and #Mussolini. #Modi #BJP https://www.ozy.com/fast-forward/indias-young-and-well-educated-are... via @ozy

Founded in 1925, the RSS has long counted India’s urban middle class as a key base, with shakhas in neighborhood parks a common sight throughout India. But that relationship was beginning to snap with a millennial generation that found the organization’s rigid hierarchical structure outdated, and the daily physical exercises boring, says Mukhopadhyay. As liberal, left-leaning education and politics dominated India, the RSS came to be seen as regressive among the English-speaking elite of the country. Dhillon’s neighbor, 42-year-old Supreme Court lawyer Bipin Bihari Singh says that people didn’t want to be identified as shakha participants.

That’s now history because the RSS is adapting — except its ideology — with the times. After consulting a top fashion designer, it swapped its khaki shorts in 2016 for smart brown trousers and made the uniform optional. The RSS now recruits door-to-door and offers weekend and virtual events for those who can’t attend daily meetings. In meetings, Sanskrit lexicon is now occasionally replaced by English, and the RSS has launched 65 new affiliate bodies targeting specific professions. Since 2016, an average of 100,000 new recruits have signed up through just the website each year, compared to just over 60,000 annually before that, according to the RSS.

Abhishek Junnarkar, a 38-year-old assistant vice president for a multinational company, says the RSS “trains us how to save our country from people who want to overpower us.” That sense of threat from an often-unspecified source — be it Muslims, Christian missionaries, Pakistan, communists or secular liberals — is at the heart of the RSS training.

Take the common shakha game Lahore Kiska Hai (Whose is Lahore). The group leader asks, “Lahore kiska hai,” and players shout back, “Lahore hamara hain (Lahore is ours).” Players then push each other to grab a stone that’s meant to symbolize Lahore. The RSS vision for India, after all, includes most of South Asia as a single nation.

Modi’s muscular nationalism fits this narrative. “People want to work for the nation the way he does,” says Ajay Mudpe, RSS publicity head in the Konkan region. But working “for the nation” can mean “othering” those the RSS sees as outsiders. A WhatsApp campaign in a Noida neighborhood, for example, led to a boycott of Bengali Muslim household helpers who were en masse labeled “ illegal migrants from Bangladesh. Meanwhile, the National Voters Forum, an affiliate of the formally apolitical RSS, has been urging professionals to vote for a party that works for the “interest of the nation” — code for the BJP.

Back in Supreme Towers, Dhillon says he’ll stay with the RSS no matter how the BJP does this week. The deep roots the organization has put down in India’s high-rise apartment blocks aren’t going anywhere. “Once in RSS, always in RSS,” he says.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 23, 2019 at 5:00pm

#Modi Seduced #India With #Envy and #Hate.. licensed his supporters to explicitly hate #Pakistanis and #Indian #Muslims. His assault on #Pakistan in February damaged nothing more than a few trees across the border, while killing 7 #Indians in friendly fire https://nyti.ms/2HznZmN


India under Mr. Modi’s rule has been marked by continuous explosions of violence in both virtual and real worlds. As pro-Modi television anchors hunted for “anti-nationals” and troll armies rampaged through social media, threatening women with rape, lynch mobs slaughtered Muslims and low-caste Hindus. Hindu supremacists have captured or infiltrated institutions from the military and the judiciary to the news media and universities, while dissenting scholars and journalists have found themselves exposed to the risk of assassination and arbitrary detention. Stridently advancing bogus claims that ancient Hindus invented genetic engineering and airplanes, Mr. Modi and his Hindu nationalist supporters seemed to plunge an entire country into a moronic inferno. Last month the Indian army’s official twitter account excitedly broadcast its discovery of the Yeti’s footprints.
------------

Rived by caste as well as class divisions, and dominated in Bollywood as well as politics by dynasties, India is a grotesquely unequal society. Its constitution, and much political rhetoric, upholds the notion that all individuals are equal and possess the same right to education and job opportunities; but the everyday experience of most Indians testify to appalling violations of this principle. A great majority of Indians, forced to inhabit the vast gap between a glossy democratic ideal and a squalid undemocratic reality, have long stored up deep feelings of injury, weakness, inferiority, degradation, inadequacy and envy; these stem from defeats or humiliation suffered at the hands of those of higher status than themselves in a rigid hierarchy.

I both witnessed and experienced these explosive tensions in the late 1980s, when I was a student at a dead-end provincial university, one of many there confronting a near-impossible task: not only sustained academic excellence, but also a wrenching cultural and psychological makeover in the image of the self-assured, English-speaking metropolitan. One common object of our ressentiment — an impotent mix of envy and hatred — was Rajiv Gandhi, the deceased father of main opposition leader Rahul Gandhi, whom Mr. Modi indecorously but cunningly chose to denounce in his election campaign. An airline pilot who became prime minister largely because his mother and grandfather had held the same post, and who allegedly received kickbacks from a Swedish arms manufacturer into Swiss bank accounts, Mr. Gandhi appeared to perfectly embody a pseudo-socialist elite that claimed to supervise post-colonial India’s attempt to catch up with the modern West but that in reality single-mindedly pursued its own interests.

----------------

Intoxicating voters with the seductive passion of vengeance, and grandiose fantasies of power and domination, Mr. Modi has deftly escaped public scrutiny of his record of raw wisdom — one that would have ruined any other politician. Back in 2014, the Hindu supremacist pioneered the politics of enmity that corrodes many democracies today. This week, he triumphantly reaped one of the biggest electoral harvests of the post-truth age, giving us more reason to fear the future.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 23, 2019 at 5:03pm

#Modi Seduced #India With #Envy and #Hate.. licensed his supporters to explicitly hate #Pakistanis and #Indian #Muslims. His assault on #Pakistan in February damaged nothing more than a few trees across the border, while killing 7 #Indians in friendly fire https://nyti.ms/2HznZmN


India under Mr. Modi’s rule has been marked by continuous explosions of violence in both virtual and real worlds. As pro-Modi television anchors hunted for “anti-nationals” and troll armies rampaged through social media, threatening women with rape, lynch mobs slaughtered Muslims and low-caste Hindus. Hindu supremacists have captured or infiltrated institutions from the military and the judiciary to the news media and universities, while dissenting scholars and journalists have found themselves exposed to the risk of assassination and arbitrary detention. Stridently advancing bogus claims that ancient Hindus invented genetic engineering and airplanes, Mr. Modi and his Hindu nationalist supporters seemed to plunge an entire country into a moronic inferno. Last month the Indian army’s official twitter account excitedly broadcast its discovery of the Yeti’s footprints.
------------

Rived by caste as well as class divisions, and dominated in Bollywood as well as politics by dynasties, India is a grotesquely unequal society. Its constitution, and much political rhetoric, upholds the notion that all individuals are equal and possess the same right to education and job opportunities; but the everyday experience of most Indians testify to appalling violations of this principle. A great majority of Indians, forced to inhabit the vast gap between a glossy democratic ideal and a squalid undemocratic reality, have long stored up deep feelings of injury, weakness, inferiority, degradation, inadequacy and envy; these stem from defeats or humiliation suffered at the hands of those of higher status than themselves in a rigid hierarchy.

I both witnessed and experienced these explosive tensions in the late 1980s, when I was a student at a dead-end provincial university, one of many there confronting a near-impossible task: not only sustained academic excellence, but also a wrenching cultural and psychological makeover in the image of the self-assured, English-speaking metropolitan. One common object of our ressentiment — an impotent mix of envy and hatred — was Rajiv Gandhi, the deceased father of main opposition leader Rahul Gandhi, whom Mr. Modi indecorously but cunningly chose to denounce in his election campaign. An airline pilot who became prime minister largely because his mother and grandfather had held the same post, and who allegedly received kickbacks from a Swedish arms manufacturer into Swiss bank accounts, Mr. Gandhi appeared to perfectly embody a pseudo-socialist elite that claimed to supervise post-colonial India’s attempt to catch up with the modern West but that in reality single-mindedly pursued its own interests.

----------------

Intoxicating voters with the seductive passion of vengeance, and grandiose fantasies of power and domination, Mr. Modi has deftly escaped public scrutiny of his record of raw wisdom — one that would have ruined any other politician. Back in 2014, the Hindu supremacist pioneered the politics of enmity that corrodes many democracies today. This week, he triumphantly reaped one of the biggest electoral harvests of the post-truth age, giving us more reason to fear the future.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 25, 2019 at 3:43pm

#Tamil #Dravidian #DMK Leader Stalin : Will Support Formation of Separate Country if #Southern States Want to Break Away From #India #Modi #BJP | India News,https://www.india.com/news/india/will-support-formation-of-separate...


Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) working president MK Stalin on Saturday said that he would support if the southern states demand the formation of a separate country ‘Dravida Nadu’. He said that he would welcome any situation in which the southern states demand to break away from India.

“If such a situation comes, it would be welcome. We hope that such a situation arises,” Stalin said in Erode,” he said, The Hindu reported.

Dismissing Stalin’s comments, RK Nagar MLA and ousted AIADMK Deputy General Secretary TTV Dhinakaran said that the route DMK leader has taken, will lead him nowhere. “First let him focus on Cauvery issue, what has he done in all these years when he was in power? He should use his influence to solve the matter, he is taking a route which leads nowhere,” he said.


P Maniarasan, the leader of the Tamil Desiya Periyakkam, said, “If he is really serious about creating Dravidanadu, let him visit the neighbouring states and muster support,” adding, “s he ready to include the proposal in the election manifesto of his party? Is he ready to convene a special general council of the DMK to propagate the idea?” The Hindu reported.

Stalin later said that he didn’t mean that he would start a campaign for the formation of Dravida Nadu but was merely answering a question. “Yes I had made remarks on Dravida Nadu but it was only after I was asked a question on it, but this does not mean that I am undertaking campaign for Dravida Nadu,” Stalin said.

Stalin’s comment has come merely a week after two southern Chief Ministers complained that southern states contribute more to the taxes than it gets in return.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 26, 2019 at 7:32am

Amb Ashraf Jahangir Qazi: 

"Hindutva as a fascist, communal, irrational and vengeful ideology can never provide India a basis on which to emerge as a credible great power in the 21st century. As a lunatic fringe movement it was a phenomenon common to all political societies. But as a lunatic mainstream ideology it will degrade India’s future and threaten regional and possibly global stability...It has led to the tragic defeat of a progressive and secular dream — which may have been more aspiration or even pretence than reality — by an atavistic and obscurantist nightmare. This throwback is mindlessly supported by a deliberately deprived and exploited population whose frustrations are manipulated and channelled in directions against their own interests. The RSS, the Sangh Pariwar, the BJP and Modi embody this political malignancy."


How come? Modi exploited the several fault lines in Indian society and managed to electorally present major issues confronting India into an emotional Hindu versus Muslim and India versus Pakistan issue. He cleverly exploited Pulwama and Balakot. Moreover, 21st-century social media and fake news technologies have enormously enhanced establishment capacities to manufacture and mould public opinion against the public interest. Deb notes that Modi’s control over India’s middle classes enormously helped in this regard. In addition, Indian corporations “contributed as much as 12 times more money to the BJP than to those of the other six national parties combined, amounting to 93 per cent of all corporate donations.”

Similar criticisms can apply to Pakistan, the US and other ‘democratic’ countries. Like India, they are not really democracies; they are corporate, praetorian, or plutocratic systems in which elected representatives and cabinets represent establishment and elite institutional interests that facilitate and finance their electoral campaigns. Parliamentarians no longer represent constituency or voter interests. Such systems are not just imperfect developing democracies; they are authoritarian and ‘extractive’ systems in democratic disguise.

Where do India-Pakistan relations go from here? There are broadly two views about a triumphant Modi’s likely attitude towards Pakistan. One sees him as seeing Pakistan as illegitimately torn from the womb of Bharat Mata and which now, in recalcitrant fashion, stands in the way of India realising its destiny as the regional hegemon in South Asia. Acco­r­dingly, he will seek to teach Pakistan a lesson in strategic decorum. He will, therefore, avail of a whole array of bilateral and international options to exert escalating and unrelenting pressure on Pak­istan, short of all-out war, to conform to India’s will.

Alternately, a supremely confident Modi, faced with a Pakistan already on the ropes, may choose a number of subtler options to ‘influence’ Pakistan in the ‘right direction’. These may include resuming informal, and later, structured dialogue and progressively allowing a range of movement in the bilateral relationship. In return, Modi would expect Pakistan to ‘behave’ with regard to Kashmir (including a possible resumption of back-channel negotiations and permanently ending cross-LoC militant activities;) terrorism (including meeting FATF requirements and dismantling alleged terrorist structures, safe havens and services;) and ‘deference’ towards Indian strategic interests in Afghanistan and the region. Modi will eventually expect Pakistan to maintain a ‘balance’ in its relations with China and India, which should ‘contextualise’ its participation in CPEC.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1484648

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 27, 2019 at 8:54pm

Iran FM Zarif seeks help from #Pakistan. It appears that #Iran, seeing that Pakistan’s close ties with #SaudiArabia and #Islamabad's long alliance with the #UnitedStates could help reduce tensions, is not interested in any conflict. http://almon.co/37o3 via @AlMonitor

Conveying the urgent nature of his visit on arrival in Islamabad, Zarif said, “I have come to Pakistan for consultations as dangerous steps have been taken in the region.”

Zarif held separate meetings with Prime Minister Imran Khan, army chief Qamar Bajwa and Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi. Though the details of these meetings have not been made public, it is apparent that Iran has requested help in de-escalating the situation.

Both the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the Arab League are about to hold summits where Saudi Arabia might push for resolutions against Iran. Ostensibly, the Iranian foreign minister would want Islamabad to convince Riyadh to adopt a less strident approach. It appears that Iran, seeing that Pakistan’s close ties with Saudi Arabia and Islamabad's long alliance with the United States could help reduce tensions, is not interested in any conflict.

De-escalation should be the immediate target, followed by dialogue and a new nuclear deal. Renegotiating the JCPOA is the best option for establishing peace in the region under the circumstances. Traditionally, Oman has been an intermediary between Iran and the United States, but Pakistan is facilitating Washington in the Afghan peace process nowadays and it could be an effective mediator in this crisis as well. Matters have reached a critical turning point since Iranian President Hassan Rouhani rejected talks with the United States after the recent escalation.

Assuring Zarif of Pakistan’s support, Qureshi said his country wanted "resolution of all outstanding issues through diplomatic engagement," as regional tension was in no one’s interest. However, in announcing that sides would not be taken in the ongoing confrontation just before Zarif’s arrival, the Pakistan Foreign Ministry kept its neutral stance and the official statement urged all sides to “show restraint, as any miscalculated move can transmute into a large-scale conflict.”

Balancing the interests of Tehran, Riyadh and Washington at the same time is an uphill task, so Islamabad will stick to neutrality. Pakistan cannot afford the risk of any confrontation between Riyadh and Tehran as frictions between them can have a sectarian spillover effect in Pakistan. In recent months, Pakistani-Iranian relations have not been at their best due to various complications.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 27, 2019 at 9:52pm

#India unhappy as #Iran goes to #Pakistan asking to link #Chabahar to #Gwadar #CPEC Deccan Herald

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/iran-goes-to-pakistan-with-ch...

As New Delhi complied with US sanctions on Iran and stopped buying crude oil from the Islamic Republic this month, Tehran responded by offering to connect its Chabahar Port with Gwadar Port of Pakistan.

Iran was the third-largest oil supplier for India after Iraq and Saudi Arabia. India bought 23.6 million tons of oil from Iran in the 2018-19 financial year.

India is concerned over the proposal Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif mooted during his recent visit to Pakistan late last week. Zarif proposed to connect Chabahar Port of Iran with the Gwadar Port, which was developed by China on the south-weste...

New Delhi perceived Chabahar Port in Iran as a counter to the Gwadar Port, which China developed as part of its “String of Pearls” policy to develop strategic assets around India.

New Delhi has been stayed away from the BRI, as the CPEC, linking Xinjiang in China and Gwadar Port of Pakistan passes through parts of Kashmir that India has been claiming as its own and accusing Pakistan of illegally occupying.

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