Comment by Riaz Haq on February 25, 2021 at 11:40am

Overall, Pakistan attracted more than 50% of renewable energy investments (47% of which in hydropower), while Russia and Indonesia received predominantly fossil fuel related energy investments. (Green Belt and Road BRI Initiative)

https://green-bri.org/china-belt-and-road-initiative-bri-investment...


Among the BRI countries, investments were spread broadly across the continents. The countries that received most investments were Vietnam, Indonesia, Pakistan and Chile. Particularly Vietnam saw a strong increase of Chinese investments – an increase of over 200% compared to 2019, possibly driven by near-shoring to avoid American sanctions. Other BRI countries that saw increases of Chinese investments despite the COVID-19 pandemic include Poland, Bulgaria, Serbia, Zimbabwe, Zambia and Chile, as well as Thailand.


Analyzing Chinese energy investments in different countries, we find that Pakistan was the country, which received most energy investments from 2013 to 2020, followed by the Russian Federation and Indonesia. Pakistan is both the largest recipient of coal-related investments and also the largest recipient of investments in hydropower. Overall, Pakistan attracted more than 50% of renewable energy investments (47% of which in hydropower), while Russia and Indonesia received predominantly fossil fuel related energy investments.


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Rail: Rail investments included high-speed rail projects connecting China through Thailand and Malaysia to Singapore (Kunming-Singapore rail). A deal of the first 40km segment of the China-Thailand high-speed rail linking Bangkok to Thailand’s border with Laos was signed in December 2020. China is also building a US$6 bn high-speed rail connecting 142 km between Jakarta and Bandung in Indonesia. Furthermore, China has been engaged in building several railway projects on the African continent (e.g. Standard Gauge Railways in Kenya and Ethiopia). China also invested in rail in Europe, such as the Budapest-Belgrade railway. China also invested in several urban rail transport projects, such as US$900 million in a subway in Hanoi, Vietnam (which has been delayed) or the US$1.6 billion metro line in Lahore, Pakistan opened in October 2020.

Road-transport: China invested across all countries with investments including road construction in Pakistan (e.g. Karakoram Highway connecting China and Pakistan all the way to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port). In 2020 investments in road infrastructure decreased by close to 70% to about US$4 billion.

Ports: Pakistan is also one of the largest recipients of Chinese investments in port infrastructure, such as the Gwadar port operated by China Overseas Port Holding Company, which is a strategically important and also contested investment for China. Other strategic port investments can be found in Piraeus, Greece or in Lamu and Mobasa, Kenya, as well as in Djibouti. A recent US$3 billion agreement to commission Croatia’s largest port (Rijeka Port) to a consortium of three Chinese contractors has been cancelled at the beginning of 2021.

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 10, 2021 at 7:45am

#Pakistan: #KP provincial government signs pact with #Chinese company for 300MW, Rs. 85 billion #Balakot #hydropower project. #ADB to provide bulk of financing. #renewableenergy #ClimateAction #PTI https://www.dawn.com/news/1611678

PESHAWAR: The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government on Tuesday signed an agreement with a Chinese company for the construction of the 300-megawatt Balakot hydropower project.

The 300MW project — said to be the biggest-ever power generation plant in the province — would be constructed with an estimated cost of Rs85 billion in a period of six years with the financial assistance of the Asian Development Bank, said an official statement.

At the signing ceremony, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Mahmood Khan was the chief guest. Officials of the Pakhtunkhwa Energy Develop­ment Organisation (PEDO) and China Gezhouba Group signed the agreement. KP Finance Minister Taimur Saleem Jhagra and Adviser to CM KP Himayatullah Khan also attended the event along with the high-ups of the energy and power department.

Speaking on the occasion, CM Khan termed the project as of vital importance for the province and a milestone achievement of the provincial government. He said the groundbreaking of the mega-project was expected to be performed by mid-April by Prime Minister Imran Khan.


Rs85bn project will be constructed in six years

The project would play an important role in boosting industrial activities, job creation and overall development of the province, he said, adding that during the construction phase, the project would generate around 4,000 job opportunities. Upon completion, it is expected to generate revenue of Rs14bn per annum, he added.

The CM maintained that power generated by Balakot hydropower project would be provided to local industries as well as to domestic consumers at relatively cheap rates.

The incumbent provincial government was taking result-oriented steps under a well-devised strategy to ensure optimum utilisation of the hydropower potential of the province with the aim to meet its energy requirements and strengthen its economy, the chief minister said.

So far various hydropower projects with a total capacity of 160MW have been completed under PEDO, whereas work is in progress on various other projects having a total capacity of 216MW.

Published in Dawn, March 10th, 2021

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 17, 2021 at 7:44am

Fitch Ratings Affirms Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) Credit at 'B-'; Outlook Stable. WAPDA makes up 95% of #Pakistan's #hydroelectric #power capacity and 24% of total capacity in 2020. #electricity #water https://www.fitchratings.com/research/international-public-finance/...


KEY RATING DRIVERS
'Very Strong' Status, Ownership, and Control: We maintain our 'Very Strong' assessment regarding WAPDA's ownership structure and control mechanism. WAPDA is a parastatal entity that operates based on the government's guidelines. The government owns 100% of WAPDA and has a tight grip on its overall operation, including financing. The Committee on Public Accounts conducts annual audits of WAPDA.

'Very Strong' Support Track Record: A favourable tariff scheme that covers financing and operating costs helps financial stability. WAPDA expects its fixed charges, which were equivalent to 95% of sales in 2020, to rise significantly in 2021, driven by an increase in capex. The government provides strong financial support, such as government guarantees (30% of debts) and loans that are ultimately incurred by the government, to ensure the entity's financial stability.

'Strong' Socio-Political Implications of Default: WAPDA is Pakistan's largest hydropower supplier. It accounted for 95% of the hydropower capacity in the country and is responsible for flood control and water supply. NEPRA plans to expand hydropower's share of total electricity generation to 35% by 2028, which will bolster the socio-implications of a default by the entity. We expect a severe service disruption should WAPDA fail because there is limited alternative hydroelectric capacity available.

'Very Strong' Financial Implications of Default: We view WAPDA as a proxy funding vehicle for the government in the power sector. The government currently provides a large share of financing for power-related capex, but the policy direction for WAPDA is to expand its own indebtedness without the government's commitment. This will increase the financial implications for the state should it default. The entity's parastatal status means a default will affect future lending and increase borrowing costs significantly for other government-related entities.

Funding Structure to Change: The entity plans significant capex in 2021-2023, while the funding structure will shift towards market sources, away from the government. WAPDA will contribute around 10% of total funding required for projects. We expect leverage to remain under 7x by 2025 from 4.9x in 2020, assuming that the periodic tariff reset is made without significant delay as planned each time. We expect WAPDA's net debt to equity to reach 1.0x by 2025 (2020: 0.2x) without equity injections.



DERIVATION SUMMARY
WAPDA's ratings are equalised with those of Pakistan (B-/Stable), reflecting our assessment of the four factors in our Government-Related Entities Rating Criteria, which results in a weighted score of 50. The ratings of entities with scores of 50 or more are equalised with those of the sovereign, regardless of their Standalone Credit Profile (SCP).

WAPDA's SCP is capped at the sovereign's IDR, given the central role of the government as a counterparty.



RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade:

An upgrade of Fitch's credit view on the sovereign may trigger positive rating action on WAPDA.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade:

A sovereign rating downgrade, weaker government links or lower socio-political and financial implications of a default may lead to negative rating action.

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 25, 2021 at 4:35pm

Pakistan’s installed PV capacity will likely increase from around 1.3 GW at the end of 2019 to 12.8 GW by 2030 and 26.9 GW by 2047, according to the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan – IGCEP 2047, which was recently published by the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA).


https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/05/01/pakistani-regulator-expects-...

NERPA's base-case scenario predicts that overall generation capacity will grow from 33,000 MW in 2020 to around 168,200 MW in 2047. But coal and hydropower will still account for 36% and 42% of total capacity, at 32,948 MW and 55,836 MW, respectively.

By 2030, the share of wind and solar in the overall energy mix will likely increase from about 3% in 2020 to 23%. “Beyond 2030, share of solar and wind plants decreases due to the increase in the number of new local coal-based plants having greater capacity factors,” NERPA said.

However, it also acknowledges that wind and solar are becoming the cheapest forms of new electricity generation. “They are set to replace the conventional fuels to great extent for power generation to meet the future demand growth,” NEPRA said. “The cheaper and widely accessible renewable energy has the potential to substantially decrease the reliability of power sector on expensive imported fuels.”

The organization also predicts that solar power plant capex in Pakistan will drop from $530/kW in 2020 to $371/kW by 2030. A global outlook report that was recently published by SolarPower Europe also predicted that Pakistan will deploy close to 5 GW of solar capacity by 2022.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 26, 2021 at 6:29pm

Hydropower development initiative focuses on clean energy transition

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/855748-hydropower-development-init...


Pakistan is facing a huge challenge of preparedness in the face of climate change impacts and their rapidly emerging threats, said Special Adviser to Prime Minister on Climate Change Malik Amin Aslam.

Mr Aslam was speaking at the Clean Energy Transition Summit organised here by Sustainable Development Policy Institute.

Mr Aslam elaborated that Pakistan is on the development pathway and wants to maintain that momentum. He claimed that the 10 billion tree tsunami initiative generated jobs but was directly addressing the menace of climate change.

He said that currently the unprecedented heat-waves and alarming rate of melting glaciers in addition to the unexpected Monsoon season are posing threats at multiple levels.

He revealed that ecosystem restoration is a budgetary priority while hydro-development is a key focus of our government in addition to pushing for solar power plants as well as establishing wind corridors. He hoped that with local coal, we would move to coal to liquid or gas which is much cleaner and pushing for re-commitments to clean energy under the CPEC umbrella.

Shandana Gulzar Khan, chairperson, NA Committee on Food Security and Agriculture, said that we need to change the way of doing business and encourage a shift towards cleaner energy. We also need to evaluate the link between gender, clean energy, and COVID-19, she added.

Earlier, Dr Abid Qaiyum Suleri, executive director, SDPI, raised the question that we need to know how we can make renewable energy fit in the current narrative in a way that it could respond to fiscal restraints and meet the needs of the consumer. He said that the goal is for 60% of energy to come from clean resources by 2030.

Waqas bin Najib, Member Energy, MoPD&SI, informed the participants that our national energy policy has already been approved and renewable energy has a major role in the policy.

Danny Kennedy, CEO, New Energy Nexus, said that we chose renewable energy which has been a huge success for the state and Pakistan may get benefitted from this experience for its transition to clean energy.

Sheeraz Anwar Khan from ADB, was of the view that the energy sector in Pakistan has suffered due to poor strategies and with the increased share of renewable energy, the government is hoping to achieve a sustainable mix of it at affordable prices.

Farzana Altaf, DG, Pak-EPA, was of the view that hydropower is very familiar to us but our investments have to be focused to promote this source of energy.

Mohammad Faisal Sharif, the energy sector expert, explained that transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy is a huge commitment and we are also transitioning our grid from a single buyer to a multi-party system.

Hassan Daud Butt, CEO, KP BOI, said that cleaner energy is imperative but cheaper source of energy is also important and being abundant with indigenous sources.

Mustafa Haider Sayed, Executive Director, Pakistan China Institute, was of view that under CPEC, coal power plants have been the game changer for meeting Pakistan’s energy needs and have played a significant role in uplifting communities.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 27, 2021 at 6:54pm

Siemens Gamesa books 410 MW of turbine orders in Pakistan in FY 2019/2020


https://renewablesnow.com/news/siemens-gamesa-books-410-mw-of-turbi...


Gamesa Renewable Energy SA (BME:SGRE) has received 410 MW worth of wind turbine orders from Pakistan during its fiscal year to end-September.

Of the total, orders for 260 MW were booked in the final quarter of the 2019/2020 fiscal year, the turbine maker said.

The machines will be distributed between eight wind farm projects. Two of the projects are already under construction, with commissioning set to take place in November 2020 and February 2021.

The eight projects represent 205 of turbines from the 2.X platform, which Siemens Gamesa will supply, install and commission in partnership with an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractor.

By the end of 2021, all eight wind farms will be fully operational. Once online, they will be capable of covering power consumption needs of up to 600,000 local households each year.

According to Siemens Gamesa, 40 million of people in Pakistan have no access to electricity. The government is committed to bring in modern renewables into the power mix, currently dominated by imported oil and natural gas.

Comment by Riaz Haq on January 20, 2022 at 6:06pm

Karot generator ready for commissioning - International Water Power

https://www.waterpowermagazine.com/news/newskarot-generator-ready-f...

The first generator at the Karot hydropower plant in Pakistan is ready for commissioning, paving the way for the project’s full operation this year.

The 720MW project was funded and constructed by China Three Gorges Corporation (CTG). Once in full operation, the station will provide 3.206 billion kWh of clean energy for Pakistan every year, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 3.5 million tons.

Karot is part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor initiative. The scheme forms part of a five-project cascade that will help manage the vital water resource of the Jhelum River and provide much needed generation capacity to the country. The project includes the construction of a 95m high dam, four headrace tunnels and a new public bridge across the river, as well as a substantial spillway structure to manage flood flows.

Comment by Riaz Haq on January 20, 2022 at 6:07pm

https://www.dawn.com/news/1669700

LAHORE: The National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC) has completed and energised the second phase of the 133km long 500kV Neelum-Jhelum Double Circuit Transmission line.

The completion of the line will enable the authorities to directly dispatch the 969MW power, generated by Neelum-Jhehlum Hydropower Project, directly to 500kV Nokhar (New Ghakkar) Grid Station which is closer to the load centres. The company has also connected 720MW Karot Hydropower Project with this line for the purpose of power evacuation, transmission and dispatch to the 132kV distribution system operated by the distribution companies.

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 21, 2022 at 4:17pm

The last stator frame at the (864 MW) Suki Kinari hydropower project (on the Kunhar river in the Kaghan valley of Mansehra District Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) has been hoisted successfully and lowered into the unit pit.

https://www.app.com.pk/global/last-stator-hoisted-successfully-at-c...

The stator weighed 335 tons and the task was completed with the help of bridge cranes. The project has four electricity generation units with a combined capacity of 884 megawatts.

The run-of-river facility is one of the early-harvest clean energy projects under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Gezhouba Group, China is implementing the project at around $2 billion, China Economic Net (CEN) reported.

Also, the 5-kilometre-long relocated portion of National Highway 15 (N-15) is open to traffic. The existing portion of N-15 will submerge in the reservoir of the Suki Kinari hydropower project; therefore, the new road was constructed at a higher elevation. The new road also has a 411-metre-long tunnel.

The project is expected to complete by the end of 2023 or mid 2024, an official said. He said that the powerhouse and reservoir parts of the project were at advanced stages of completion. However, the 24-kilometre-long headrace tunnel is the most challenging part of the project due to unpredictable terrain, tough weather conditions during winters and dewatering issues, he said.

Gezhouba has deployed the most skilled workforce and state-of-the-art machinery at the tunnel sites and presently excavation and lining works are underway from both upstream and downstream sides, he said.

The project will add around 3 billion units of cheap electricity into the national grid annually after completion.

Comment by Riaz Haq on November 14, 2022 at 10:11am

New hydel projects to produce over 11,000MW
Will enhance overall hydroelectric power capacity to 20,684MW

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2382074/new-hydel-projects-to-produce-...


ISLAMABAD:
The Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) is pursuing six hydroelectric power projects that will add 11,241 megawatts of environment-friendly electricity to the existing hydel generation capacity of 9,443MW in the coming years.

Talking to APP, Wapda officials said that at present total installed capacity of 24 hydel power stations of Wapda stood at 9,443MW and the addition of 11,241MW would enhance it to 20,684MW.

The existing hydel power stations included Tarbela, Mangla, Ghazi Barotha, Neelum-Jhelum and Warsak, which contributed about 25% to the total system capacity of 36,166MW from all sources.

The net electricity output of those power stations was about 32,000 gigawatt-hours (GWh) per annum.

Sharing details of the upcoming hydel power projects, the officials said that the Dasu Hydropower Project would contribute 4,320MW, Tarbela 5th Extension 1,510MW, Mohmand Dam 800MW, Diamer-Bhasha Dam 4,500MW, Keyal Khwar Power Project 128MW and Kurram Tangi 83.4MW to the national grid system.

Meanwhile, Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission has developed several nuclear power projects to support economic uplift in Pakistan.

Total installed capacity of the nuclear power plants connected with the national grid was 3,530MW, which included 1,330MW Chashma nuclear power project and 2,200MW Karachi nuclear power project.

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