Is Pakistan Ready For Clean Energy Revolution?

Rising worries about climate change have recently made me join the Clean Energy Revolution by installing rooftop solar and leasing an electric car. What is the Clean Energy Revolution? It is the growing use of solar panels, battery storage and electric vehicles to reduce carbon emissions. Is Pakistan ready to join the Clean Energy Revolution?

Tesla Surpasses China's BYD in EV Sales. Courtesy Electrek

Tesla Electric Cars:

Silicon Valley is at the forefront of this clean energy revolution led by Tesla. Tesla is more than an electric car company; the company also supplies solar panels and batteries. Other automakers are also taking their cues from Tesla.  China's BYD Auto has only recently been surpassed by Tesla in production volumes. Auto giants General Motors and BMW are both building electric cars and planning to build "gigafactories" like Tesla's to manufacture battery packs for vehicles and homes. Pakistan is building up renewable power generation capacity. The country has also recently announced its National Electric Vehicle Policy that offers incentives to transition to clean energy.

Bloomberg estimates that Batteries and electric transmission account for about 40% of passenger cars’ costs. European demand is met by mainly Japanese and South Korean battery makers like Panasonic, LG Chem Ltd. and Samsung SDI Co. In the U.S., Tesla has built its own battery cells at its Gigafactory to manage costs and satisfy demand for the cars it produces. Chinese demand for battery packs is met by BYD.

Battery Backed Renewable Energy Costs:

High-capacity battery pack costs have dropped nearly 40% since 2015, according to Wood Mackenzie data as reported by Wall Street Journal. The prices of lithium and vanadium—two of several key raw materials that are used in such batteries—also have declined over the past year or so.

Battery storage costs have fallen nearly 90% in the past decade, according to NextEra Energy.  Cost reductions are expected to continue to only $8 to $14 per MW-hour by 2020, or about a penny per kW-hour. For perspective, the average kW-hour of electricity costs about 13 cents for retail users.

NextEra Energy forecasts that post-2023, wind plus energy storage costs will be $20 to $30 per MW-hour, and solar plus energy storage will be $30 to $40 per MW-hour. Natural gas is expected to match the solar-plus-storage costs.

Pakistan Electric Vehicle Policy:

Pakistan has a low level of motorization with just 9% of the households owning a car. Nearly half of all households own a motorcycle. Motorization rates in the country have tripled over the last decade and a half, resulting in nearly 40% of all emissions coming from vehicles. Concerns about climate change and environmental pollution have forced the government to to take a number of actions ranging from adoption of Euro6 emission standards for new vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE) since 2015 and announcement of a national electric vehicle (EV) policy this year.

Private vehicle ownership in Pakistan has risen sharply over the last 4 years. More than 9% of households now own cars, up from 6% in 2015. Motorcycle ownership has jumped from 41% of households in 2015 to 53% now, according to data released by Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) recently. There are 32.2 million households in Pakistan, according to 2017 Census.

Vehicle Ownership in Pakistan. Source: PBS

Pakistan's National EV Policy is a forward looking step needed to deal with climate concerns from growing transport sector emissions with rapidly rising vehicle ownership. It offers tax incentives for buyers and sellers. It also focuses on development of nationwide charging infrastructure to ease adoption of electric vehicles.

Low Carbon Energy Growth:


In recent years,  Pakistan government has introduced a number of supportive policies, including feed-in tariffs and a net metering program to incentivize renewables. These have been fairly successful, and renewables capacity in the country surged substantially over 2018 when 1245 MW was added, of which 826MW was contributed by the solar sector, according to Fitch Solutions.

Non-Hydro Renewables in Pakistan. Source: Fitch Solutions

Pakistan’s Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) recently signed deals for projects that will see the country expand its wind power capacity by 560 MW.  Fitch Solutions forecasts Pakistan's solar capacity to grow by an annual average of 9.4% between 2019-2028, taking total capacity over 3.8GW by the end of our forecast period.

Sindh government has recently signed a deal for 400MW solar park at Manjhand, 20MW rooftop solar systems on public sector buildings in Karachi and Hyderabad, and 200,000 solar home systems for remote areas in 10 districts of the province. The project is estimated to cost USD105million, with the World Bank funding USD100 million.

The biggest and most important source of low-carbon energy in Pakistan is its hydroelectric power plants. Pakistan ranked third in the world by adding nearly 2,500 MW of hydropower in 2018, according to Hydropower Status Report 2019.  China added the most capacity with the installation of 8,540 megawatts, followed by Brazil (3,866 MW), Pakistan (2,487 MW), Turkey (1,085 MW), Angola (668 MW), Tajikistan (605 MW), Ecuador (556 MW), India (535 MW), Norway (419 MW) and Canada (401 MW).

New Installed Hydroelectric Power Capacity in 2018. Source: Hydrowo...

Hydropower now makes up about 28% of the total installed capacity of 33,836 MW as of February, 2019.   WAPDA reports contributing 25.63 billion units of hydroelectricity to the national grid during the year, “despite the fact that water flows in 2018 remained historically low.” This contribution “greatly helped the country in meeting electricity needs and lowering the electricity tariff for the consumers.”

Chinese BYD in Pakistan:

Multiple media reports suggest that China's BYD is about to enter Pakistan market following the announcement of Pakistan National EV Policy.   These reports indicate that Toyota, one of the largest automakers in Pakistan, has signed a deal with BYD to manufacture electric vehicles.

Other reports indicate that Pakistan's Rahmat Group is in talks with BYD to set up an electric vehicle plant at Nooriabad in Sindh province.

Minister for Science and Technology Fawad Chaudhry has claimed that in three years Pakistan will become the first country to manufacture electric buses, which will be driven by an electric motor and obtains energy from on-board batteries.

Summary: 

It appears that Pakistan is starting to get serious about joining the Clean Energy Revolution to deal with rising climate change concerns. The country has set targets for renewable energy growth and announced National Electric Vehicle Policy.  In recent years, Pakistan government has introduced a number of supportive policies, including feed-in tariffs and a net metering program to incentivize renewables. These have been fairly successful, and renewables capacity in the country surged substantially over 2018 when 1245 MW was added, of which 826MW was contributed by the solar sector, according to Fitch Solutions.  High-capacity battery pack costs have dropped nearly 40% since 2015, according to Wood Mackenzie data as reported by Wall Street Journal.  Cost reductions are expected to continue to only $8 to $14 per MW-hour by 2020, or about a penny per kW-hour. While production and use of renewable energy are growing, the electric vehicles in Pakistan have yet to find traction. Hopefully, the National EV policy will encourage production and adoption of electric vehicles in the country.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Pakistan Electric Vehicle Policy

Nuclear Power in Pakistan

Recurring Cycles of Drought and Floods in Pakistan

Pakistan's Response to Climate Change

Massive Oil and Gas Discovery in Pakistan: Hype vs Reality

Renewable Energy for Pakistan

Digital BRI: China and Pakistan Building Fiber, 5G Networks

LNG Imports in Pakistan

Growing Water Scarcity in Pakistan

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Ownership of Appliances and Vehicles in Pakistan

CPEC Transforming Pakistan

Pakistan's $20 Billion Tourism Industry Boom

Riaz Haq's YouTube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Views: 558

Comment by Riaz Haq on November 25, 2021 at 8:15pm

Tax breaks kick Pakistan's electric car shift into higher gear

https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/tax-breaks-kick-pakistans-elec...

Shaukat Qureshi, general secretary of the Pakistan Electric Vehicles and Parts Manufacturers and Traders Association, said the new tax cuts mean savings of up to 500,000 rupees ($2,900) on imported small electric vehicles.

He said many members of the association have used the incentives to order them for the first time.

There are no reliable figures on how many electric cars local importers have ordered brought into the country since the government announced the exemptions.

But in his other role as chief operating officer of car company Zia Electromotive, which imports and manufactures electric vehicles, Qureshi said he has ordered 100 small electric cars from China and plans to import 100 more every month after that.

Pakistanis - like many other people around the world - have historically been reluctant to switch to electric vehicles for reasons ranging from higher costs to lack of charging infrastructure and "fear of the unknown", said Ayaz at the EDB.

The tax cuts help remove the cost obstacle, he said - and could help create about 20,000 new jobs in the auto industry as Pakistani car companies start manufacturing electric cars, he predicted.

The charging infrastructure issue remains, though some companies have already established charging stations in big cities and along motorways.

Climate change and development expert Ali Tauqeer Sheikh said the government should encourage the private sector to install more charging stations near offices, homes and parking lots.

To overcome worries that electric vehicles may have no resale value, car manufacturers and dealers could offer buy-back guarantees, he added.

But, Sheikh said, simply selling more electric cars is not enough to tackle Pakistan's emissions and air pollution, since the total number of vehicles being sold - mainly traditional cars - is still growing every year.

He said the government needs to push to completely phase out fuel-run and hybrid vehicles by increasing taxes on them and provide affordable bank loans for people looking to buy electric.

"Poor people who use motorbikes and rickshaws deserve to have more electric vehicles on the roads to cut air pollution," he said.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 26, 2022 at 4:55pm

Chinese company announces to establish EV plant in Karachi

https://arynews.tv/chinese-company-announces-to-establish-ev-plant-...

The ‘Gauss Auto Group,’ a Chinese corporation, has announced to construct electric vehicle (EV) plant in Pakistan’s special economic zone near Port Qasim in Karachi.

The company would enter into a Joint Venture (JV) with AKD Group Holdings (Pvt.) limited and set up the plant near Port Qasim, Karachi on around 1000 acres of land.

The development comes after a delegation led by Mr. Chen Feng, CEO Gauss Auto Group and CEO AKD Group Holding, Mr. Nasir Rizwan visited the Board of Investment (BOI) and held a detailed meeting with the Federal Minister Board of Investment Chaudhry Salik Hussain and Secretary BOI Ms. Fareena Mazhar.

The delegation also highlighted their intention to export their locally produced EVs from Pakistan to other countries. The organization delivered a comprehensive presentation of their production plant and apprised BOI leadership on the variants of the vehicles they are already producing.

Secretary BOI briefed the delegation about Pakistan’s recently launched Electric Vehicle policy which offers benefits to both; existing and new manufacturers.

BOI leadership encouraged Gauss Auto Group to invest in auto sector of Pakistan and extended maximum support and facilitation to the company.

It is pertinent to mention here that Gauss Auto is an enterprise focusing on the innovation and development of automobiles and the integration of resources. The company is registered in Silicon Valley, California, and operates in Shanghai, China.

It is pertinent to mention here that the federal cabinet on Dec.22, 2021 had approved Pakistan’s first Electric Vehicle Policy.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 26, 2022 at 6:47pm

Pakistan: How cheap is 'cheap electric car'? - BBC URDU

https://youtu.be/TsK-vBZEusY

پیٹرول سے نجات، ٹچ گیئر اور لیدر سیٹس۔۔۔ یہ پاکستان میں متعارف کروائی جانے والی الیکٹرک کار کی چند خصوصیات ہیں۔ اس کار کی چارجنگ کتنی دیر میں ہوتی ہے اور اس پر کتنا خرچہ آتا ہے، جانیے ہماری ویڈیو میں۔۔۔

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 31, 2022 at 7:36am

This Fully Localized Electric Rickshaw is Roomier Than Wagon R

https://propakistani.pk/2022/07/30/this-fully-localized-electric-ri...

According to a company representative, MUVA electric rickshaws are made in Pakistan completely from scratch at their state-of-the-art facility in Lahore.

Pakistan Auto Show (PAS) 2022 saw participation from numerous promising prospects. One such up-and-comer is YES Electromotive — a fully indigenous electric vehicle (EV) maker that seeks to launch MUVA electric rickshaws in Pakistan.

The company is still fine-tuning the product through testing and extensive research and development before officially launching these rickshaws in the market, the representative said.

Short for Modular Utility Vehicle Architecture, MUVA covers a development program for light commercial vehicles. These tiny EVs will serve the same purpose as a conventional rickshaw, but with zero tail-pipe emissions and at almost 7-times less running cost than a petrol-powered three-wheeler.

MUVA electric rickshaw is an ultra-light commercial EV that seats a driver and three passengers. It has a maximum payload capacity of 300 KGs and a curb weight of 450 KGs. It has a single permanent magnet electric motor that makes up to 10.7 horsepower.

The company representative added that the MUVA rickshaw will be sold as a commercial EV only and that the company will aim for fleet sales. He added that YES Electromotive also seeks to adopt a ride-hailing service operating model, whereby the riders will be able to summon these rickshaws via a mobile app.

YES Electromotive is shaping up to be a promising addition to Pakistan’s public transport sector. Stay tuned for more details.

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 5, 2022 at 8:00am

Green light given to #Dubai royal’s 400MW #green #hydrogen project in #Pakistan — powered by 1.2GW of #wind and #solar in #Sindh. It has not been revealed how the green hydrogen produced at the project will be used. #renewableenergy #renewables https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/green-light-given-to...


A provincial government in Pakistan has granted “comprehensive permission” for the construction of a 400MW green hydrogen project that would be powered by 500MW of wind energy and 700MW of solar, backed up by a battery.

The unnamed facility is being developed by Oracle Energy, a joint venture 70%-owned by Sheikh Ahmed Dalmook Al Maktoum — a prominent member of Dubai’s royal family — and 30%-owned by London-based, AIM-listed Oracle Power.

According to a stock market filing, Oracle Power “has received a letter from the Directorate of Alternative Energy of the Government of Sindh confirming that it will issue a Letter of Intent ("LOI") to Oracle regarding the establishment of a 1,200MW hybrid solar/wind, green hydrogen/power project... subject to the provision of a $600,000 performance guarantee by Oracle Energy”.

The project, if operating at full capacity, would produce 55,000 tonnes of green hydrogen per year.

“I am delighted to report that our green hydrogen initiative in Pakistan has received confirmation that it will receive the consent of the Government of Sindh through the issuance of an LOI, subject to the provision of a bank guarantee,” said Oracle Power CEO Naheed Memon in a statement.

In an interview with Vox Markets, Memon explained: “The LOI that we’ve got, or that has been approved, to be very clear, is that for... setting up the green hydrogen facility and for possible sale [of excess electricity to third parties],” she said.

“So, it’s a sort of a comprehensive permission from the government to allow us to set up the power generation facility for either captive use or for third-party sales.”

She added: “We are now in the process of fulfilling the requirement they have listed, which is primarily and essentially the bank guarantee, which we give to them and then they issue us the document and that’s it. That completes the formal engagement with the government in order for us to get onto ground.”

It has not been revealed how the green hydrogen produced at the project will be used.

Memon — who is also a director in her family-owned conglomerate, the Kings Group of Industries — was previously chairman of the Sindh government’s board of investment, a position described on Oracle Power’s website as a “provincial minister”.

Oracle Power describes itself as an “international power and natural resource project developer” primarily focused on Pakistan and Western Australia.

Despite claiming to work in an “environmentally responsible fashion”, it also owns the extraction rights to 1.4 billion tonnes of lignite (brown coal) — the dirtiest fossil fuel — in Sindh, where it plans to build a 1.32GW coal-fired power plant.

The company also has licences to search for gold in Western Australia.

Sheikh Ahmed Dalmook at Maktoum's private office “has a portfolio of privately held group companies that focus mainly on infrastructure development, energy projects, LNG terminal development, commodity & oil trading, water desalination, water recirculation as well as education and agricultural projects”, according to its website.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 16, 2022 at 7:58am

Analysis: China’s shifting energy investments in Pakistan, from coal to renewables

https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/energy/analysis-chinas-shifting-ene...


China’s energy investments in Pakistan have so far focused on coal and hydropower projects. But several China-backed wind projects are now underway, and Islamabad says it is ready to go big on solar.


Until about a decade ago, the Jhimpir region in Pakistan’s southern province of Sindh was a dry, barren stretch of land, inhabited by nomadic tribes. Today, it is home to hundreds of mammoth rotating blades in about two dozen wind farms.

Around 90 kilometres from Karachi, Jhimpir is the heartland of Pakistan’s largest ‘wind corridor’, which has the potential to produce 11,000 megawatts (MW) of clean energy. Among early investors was the China Three Gorges Corporation, a Chinese state-owned power company, operating under an investment holding company, China Three Gorges South Asia Investment Limited.

The company has funded and built three wind projects with a combined capacity of nearly 150 MW. The first of these began construction in 2012. The latter two projects, completed in 2018, were funded under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), an integral part of Beijing’s flagship multibillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In an official statement following Pakistan’s prime minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to China on 1-2 November 2022, Sharif reaffirmed the importance of CPEC to Pakistan’s development.

For the time being, renewables represent only a small portion of Pakistan’s power generation mix. Of a total of 43,775 MW, installed capacity for wind and solar represent around 4.2% (1,831 MW) and 1.4% (630 MW) respectively, according to the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority’s State of Industry 2022 report. In terms of CPEC, the November 2022 joint statement from China and Pakistan listed oil and gas as among the “priority areas of CPEC cooperation”.

But a recent shift in the direction of Chinese investment may be hugely significant for Pakistan’s energy future, and the climate.

The shift from coal?
In the years before the launch of CPEC in 2015, Pakistan was desperate to end its long, crippling power shortages. The country was keen to develop its untapped indigenous coal in Thar desert, but multilateral financial institutions were not interested. Along came China in 2013, with an offer to lend massive amounts for infrastructure development and coal mining.

Details of the financing deals are a closely guarded secret, but multiple Chinese-funded coal projects followed. Eight completed or under-construction coal projects are listed as part of CPEC, totalling 6,900 MW, which include four on Thar coal.

Then in 2021, after growing pressure on China – currently the world’s biggest polluter – to curb its greenhouse gas emissions, Beijing announced it would not build new coal-fired power plants overseas, and would increase support for low-carbon energy.

In December 2020, Pakistan announced that it would not build any new power projects that depend on imported coal, and pledged that by 2030 60% of its energy will come from clean and renewable sources. The government has since scrapped a number of potential coal projects, including a 300 MW plant at the Chinese-controlled Gwadar sea port in Balochistan. Reportedly, it is to be replaced by a solar plant.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 16, 2022 at 7:59am

Analysis: China’s shifting energy investments in Pakistan, from coal to renewables

https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/energy/analysis-chinas-shifting-ene...


‘Greening’ CPEC
As Beijing tries to rebrand the BRI as an eco-friendly initiative, Chinese officials have promoted the idea of a ‘green’ CPEC. But Hina Aslam, research fellow at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), a think tank in Islamabad, points out that “in the energy sector, it has meant a greater focus on hydro rather than wind and solar”.

Besides wind energy in Jhimpir, China Three Gorges Corporation is investing heavily in what it is globally known for: hydropower (the company is behind the Three Gorges Dam in China, the world’s biggest power station). In June 2022, it completed a 720 MW project in Karot in northern Pakistan. Work is advancing on a 1,124 MW hydropower plant near Muzaffarabad, and a third 640 MW project has recently been approved in Mahl. The same company is behind both projects.

Put together, China Three Gorges aims to produce 2,500 MW of renewable energy in Pakistan, mostly through hydro. The Pakistan government – like many others – includes hydropower under the umbrella of renewable energy, but this is disputed by many environmentalists due to the often high environmental, social and financial costs of hydropower, including disruption of important riverine ecosystems. In Pakistan, dams are also politically contentious and a source of discord between upstream and downstream provinces. Yet, both Beijing and Islamabad appear keen to pursue hydropower.

But there are huge challenges facing Pakistan’s shift to renewable energy. “A lack of consistency in policy has been the biggest issue,” says Noman Sohail, senior business manager at China Three Gorges South Asia Investment Ltd. “Arranging lenders and finance for renewable projects is not a problem. But it’s disorienting when policies are reversed, tariffs renegotiated and unpaid capacity payments allowed to pile up.”

Growing popularity of solar
There is one form of renewable energy in particular that presents immense potential for Pakistan, but which has seen little investment to date: solar. A World Bank study in 2020 urged Pakistan to urgently expand solar and wind “to at least 30% of electricity generation capacity by 2030, equivalent to around 24,000 MW”. As of 2022, the proportion is 5.6% according to the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority’s State of Industry 2022 report.

Pakistan’s slow take-up of solar energy is evident from the fact that of the 21 energy projects completed or in development under CPEC, only one is solar: the 1,000 MW Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park in Cholistan Desert, Punjab, built by Chinese company Zonergy. This project, promoted as one of the world’s biggest solar parks, was meant to be completed by 2017. But only 40% of this capacity has been implemented so far.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 16, 2022 at 8:00am

Analysis: China’s shifting energy investments in Pakistan, from coal to renewables

https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/energy/analysis-chinas-shifting-ene...


Suleman Rehman, chief executive of Burj Capital, a Dubai-based investment company focused on renewable energy in Pakistan, says that regardless of the government’s apparent lack of focus, the demand for affordable solar power is growing exponentially. “The competition is getting intense. More and more local players are coming up every month. Installing a 4 MW solar project is no longer a big deal for us,” says Rehman.

According to Rehman, the private sector is not waiting for policymakers to facilitate the energy transition. Those who can are turning to the solar option. That explains the recent proliferation of rooftop photovoltaic panels in big cities, as well as in off-grid villages across the country.

The solar future
Costly fuel imports have already had a crippling effect on Pakistan’s economy. This year, the volatility of global energy prices, exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, took a damaging toll on Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves. The country was on the verge of a default before the International Monetary Fund agreed to step in to help it stay afloat.

In an attempt to reduce dependence on imported fuel, on 1 September 2022 prime minister Shahbaz Sharif announced the rapid deployment of 10,000 MW of solar power in the country. But details of how this will be achieved, and by when, are sketchy. The plan reportedly involves transitioning all public sector buildings to solar power. The proposal also encourages power plants running on coal, oil and gas to partially shift to solar power.

China will have a crucial role to play if this shift to solar is to happen, says Rehman, though it may come in a different form than the mega-projects seen under CPEC.

“China will still have a big role because they are producing the cheapest [solar] equipment worldwide. But I really hope the government won’t put this under CPEC because that would put local players at a disadvantage,” says Rehman.

Some Chinese companies will still be involved in investment in solar, but most will not be interested in small local projects, he feels. “In my experience, customers are happy for us to import Chinese-manufactured technology or their raw material, but they prefer to have local contractors and engineers to deal with.”

So far, Pakistan’s dependence on imports from China has prevented creation of local supply chains, says Rehman. That, he says, will need to change if the country is serious about exploiting its solar potential. “The government can facilitate this transition by encouraging domestic manufacturing,” argues Rehman.

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 5, 2023 at 8:02am

Pakistan issues tender for 600 MW of PV
The Pakistani authorities say that prospective developers must submit bids for a new 600 MW solar tender by May 8.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/04/04/pakistan-issues-tender-for-6...

Pakistan's Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) has launched a tender to deploy 600 MW of PV capacity. It said the new solar projects will be built in the districts of Kot Addu and Muzaffargargh, Punjab province.

Selected developers will be expected to build the plants on a build, own, and operate transfer (BOOT) basis. They have until May 8 to submit project proposals. The deadline was originally set for April 17.

According to the latest statistics from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Pakistan had 1,234 MW of installed PV capacity by the end of 2022. Last year, the nation newly installed 166 MW of solar capacity.

NEPRA, the country's energy authority, recently granted 12 generation licenses, with a total capacity of 211.42 MW. Nine of those approvals were granted to solar projects with a total capacity of 44.74 MW.

In May, NEPRA launched the Competitive Trading Bilateral Contract Market (CTBCM), a new model for Pakistan’s wholesale electricity market. The Central Power Purchasing Agency said the model will “introduce competition in the electricity market and provide an enabling environment where multiple sellers and buyers can trade electricity.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 23, 2023 at 5:04pm

Tech Billionaires Bet on Fusion as Holy Grail for Business
Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates are among titans chasing almost Iimitless energy source

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tech-billionaires-bet-on-fusion-as-hol...

Sam Altman became a tech sensation this year as the CEO of OpenAI, the artificial-intelligence startup that seems pulled from science fiction.

But Mr. Altman, who has been among Silicon Valley’s most prominent investors for more than a decade, has placed one of the biggest bets of his career on a company that might be even more futuristic: a nuclear-fusion startup called Helion Energy Inc.

He is one of a number of tech founders and billionaires who hope to harness the process that powers the sun and stars to deliver almost limitless energy. Jeff Bezos, Peter Thiel, Bill Gates and Marc Benioff are among those betting that the decadeslong goal of building fusion reactors is now within years of being reality.

Mr. Benioff calls fusion a “tremendous dream.”

“It’s the holy grail. It’s the mythical unicorn,” said Mr. Benioff, the CEO of Salesforce Inc., who invested in the Massachusetts Institute of Technology spinout called Commonwealth Fusion Systems, which aims to create compact power plants. Mr. Gates is also an investor.

Fusion has long been seen as a clean-energy alternative to sources that burn fossil fuels and release greenhouse gases. Other technologies and applications being developed in the race for fusion power include powerful magnets, better lasers or radiation therapy for cancer research.

Fusion, Mr. Benioff added, “has no limits if you can get it to work.”

Developers mostly in the U.S., Canada and Europe have been riding a wave of momentum since August 2021, when scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory came close to achieving more energy in a fusion reaction than was put in with lasers, a goal known as net gain.

Many grew to believe that a breakthrough was imminent. It came in December when the national lab achieved net gain for the first time.

Nuclear fusion occurs when two light atomic nuclei merge to form a single heavier one. That process releases huge amounts of energy, no carbon emissions and limited radioactivity, but companies would have to sustain fusion reactions and engineer a way to turn that energy into net power.

The old saw about fusion is that it is a mirage years away and always will be. It is a long-shot bet even with the high-risk world of venture funding.

Mr. Benioff said he was persuaded by Vinod Khosla, the Sun Microsystems co-founder who was an early investor in private fusion, historically the province of academia and national labs.

Mr. Khosla’s interest hinged on the ability to build a large high-temperature superconducting electromagnet. He spent 15 months on due diligence and hired three teams to evaluate the design before investing.

He thinks that several fusion designs should be tested and is investing in another firm, Realta Fusion, a spinout from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “Even if one of them can work, the planet is much better off is how I look at it,” he said.

As an investor, Mr. Khosla sees fusion this way: “Financially either you lose one times your money or you can make a thousand times your money,” Mr. Khosla said. “That’s the math of fusion.”

Industrial firms, major oil companies and sovereign-wealth funds are backing efforts along with the Department of Defense, which is in search of a toaster-sized power system for satellite propulsion.

“There’s a reasonable probability at least one, maybe two companies will demonstrate fusion conditions in this decade,” said Ernest Moniz, who is the chief executive of the nonprofit research group Energy Futures Initiative and a former U.S. Energy Secretary.

Mr. Moniz, a physicist, said that improvements in large-scale machine learning have sped experiments and helped several companies achieve or approach the extreme temperatures and pressures needed for fusion reactions.

Comment

You need to be a member of PakAlumni Worldwide: The Global Social Network to add comments!

Join PakAlumni Worldwide: The Global Social Network

Pre-Paid Legal


Twitter Feed

    follow me on Twitter

    Sponsored Links

    South Asia Investor Review
    Investor Information Blog

    Haq's Musings
    Riaz Haq's Current Affairs Blog

    Please Bookmark This Page!




    Blog Posts

    Biden's Gaza Ceasefire Veto Defies American Public Opinion

    Aaron Bushnell, an active serviceman in the United States Air Force, burned himself to death in front of the Israeli Embassy in protest against the US policy in Gaza. Before setting himself on fire in what he called an "extreme act of protest", he said he would "no longer be complicit in genocide". Polls show that the vast majority (63%) of Americans want an immediate end to the carnage being perpetrated by Israel in Gaza.  …

    Continue

    Posted by Riaz Haq on February 27, 2024 at 5:30pm

    Pakistan Elections: Imran Khan's Supporters Skillfully Used Tech to Defy Powerful Military

    Independent candidates backed by the Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI) party emerged as the largest single block with 93 seats in the nation's parliament in the general elections held on February 8, 2024.  This feat was accomplished in spite of huge obstacles thrown in front of the PTI's top leader Imran Khan and his party leaders and supporters by Pakistan's powerful military…

    Continue

    Posted by Riaz Haq on February 16, 2024 at 9:22pm — 1 Comment

    © 2024   Created by Riaz Haq.   Powered by

    Badges  |  Report an Issue  |  Terms of Service