Pakistan's Choice: CAREC or SAARC or Both?

Pakistan sits between two economically very dynamic regions: Central Asia (and Western China) and South Asia. Which region is better suited for its economic connectivity and integration? Should Islamabad focus on CAREC (Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation) rather than SAARC (South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation)?

Ideally, Pakistan should be a major player in both vibrant regions. However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's policy of attempting to isolate Pakistan has essentially forced it to choose.

First, Mr. Modi decided to boycott this year's SAARC summit that was scheduled to take place in Islamabad, Pakistan. Then, he unsuccessfully attempted to hijack the BRICS economic summit in India to use it as a political platform to attack and isolate Pakistan.  The signal to Pakistan was unmistakable: Forget about SAARC.

Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC):

CAREC is a growing group of nations that is currently made up of 11 members, including China and a list of STANs.   The current membership includes Afghanistan (joined CAREC in 2005), Azerbaijan (2003), People's Republic of China (1997), Georgia (2016), Kazakhstan (1997), Kyrgyz Republic (1997), Mongolia (2003, Pakistan (2010), Tajikistan (1998), Turkmenistan (2010) and Uzbekistan (1997).



The last ministerial meeting of CAREC nations was held in Islamabad in October, 2016. The conference theme was “Linking connectivity with economic transformation".

Welcoming fellow ministers, Pakistan's Finance Minister Ishaq Dar talked about the importance of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to improve trade flow within the region and with the rest the rest of the world.

Dar said CPEC offered a massive opportunity for connectivity between Central Asia, Middle East and Africa and was bound to play a defining role in economic development of the regions.

Dar said improving the transport corridor was not an end in itself but it was an investment in establishing sound infrastructure and complementary frameworks for shared prosperity of the present and future generations in the region, according to a report in Pakistani media.

CAREC Corridors:

CAREC region is building six economic corridors to link Central Asian nations. Six multi-national institutions support the CAREC infrastructure development, including the Asian Development Bank (ADB), United Nations Development Program (UNDP), International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank,  Jeddah-based Islamic Development Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction & Development, according to Khaleej Times.

Out of the total $27.7 billion CAREC infrastructure investment so for, $9.9 billion or 36 per cent was financed by ADB, a senior officer of the Manila-based multinational bank told Khaleeej Times.

He said other donors had invested $10.9 billion while $6.9 billion was contributed by CAREC governments. Of these investments, transport got the major share with $8 billion or 78 per cent. Asian Development Bank Vice President Wencai Zhang said: "There are huge financing requirements in Carec for transport and trade facilitation, for which 108 projects have been identified at an investment cost of $38.8 billion for the period 2012-2020. Investment for the priority energy sector projects will be $45 billion in this period."

CPEC North-South Corridor:

China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a major part of the north-south corridor that will allow trade to flow among CAREC member countries, many of which are resource-rich but landlocked nations. The corridor will enable the group to access to the Pakistani seaports in Gwadar and Karachi as part of the new maritime silk route (MSR) as envisioned by China and Pakistan.

Pakistan's Finance Minister Dar says the CPEC would complement the regional connectivity initiatives of CAREC. "Once the six CAREC corridors and mega ports, now under construction, start operating, they will provide access to global markets. They will deliver services that will be important for national and regional competitiveness, productivity, employment, mobility and environmental sustainability. All of us should gear our national policies to achieve these targets."

CPEC consists of transport and communication infrastructure—roads, railways, cable, and oil and gas pipelines—that will stretch 2,700 kilometers from Gwadar on the Arabian Sea to the Khunjerab Pass at the China-Pakistan border in the Karakorams.

China and Pakistan are developing plans for an 1,800 kilometer international rail link from the city of Kashgar in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region in Western China to Pakistan's deep-sea Gwadar Port on the Arabian Sea, according to Zhang Chunlin, director of Xinjiang's regional development and reform commission.



 "The 1,800-kilometer China-Pakistan railway is planned to also pass through Pakistan's capital of Islamabad and Karachi," Zhang Chunlin said at the two-day International Seminar on the Silk Road Economic Belt in Urumqi, Xinjiang's capital, according to China Daily.

"Although the cost of constructing the railway is expected to be high due to the hostile environment and complicated geographic conditions, the study of the project has already started," Zhang said. "China and Pakistan will co-fund the railway construction. Building oil and gas pipelines between Gwadar Port and China is also on the agenda," Zhang added.

Afghan Instability:

Pakistan is making a serious effort to stabilize Afghanistan, a member of CAREC. A trilateral conference of China, Russia and Pakistan is scheduled this month in Moscow as part of this effort. Afghan instability has prevented Pakistan from connecting with other STANs for commerce and trade. Now the development of CPEC will enable Pakistan to bypass Afghanistan, if necessary, to connect with Central Asia region through Western China.

Summary:

History shows that growth of regional and global trade in East Asia, Europe and North America regions has been a major driver of economic opportunity and prosperity.  Unfortunately, SAARC has been a huge disappointment for Pakistanis.  With the development of CPEC and CAREC, Pakistan can now begin to participate in the growth of regional and global trade that will benefit the people of Pakistan.  The path to Pakistan's participation in SAARC will open up if or when India-Pakistan relations improve.

Here's a National Geographic Documentary on CPEC:

https://youtu.be/q2lWYxbIBCs




Related Links:

Haq's Musings

1800 Km Pak-China Rail Link

China Pakistan Economic Corridor

CPEC to Create Over 2 Million Jobs

Modi's Covert War in Pakistan

ADB Raises Pakistan GDP Growth Forecast

Gwadar as Hong Kong West

China-Pakistan Industrial Corridor

Indian Spy Kulbhushan Yadav's Confession

Ex Indian Spy Documents RAW Successes Against Pakistan

Pakistan FDI Soaring with Chinese Money for CPEC


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Comment by Riaz Haq on May 11, 2020 at 6:49pm

Uzbekistan is the third landlocked state in recent years to request the use of Pakistani ports for trade, according to media reports. The Central Asian nation has asked to join Quadrilateral Traffic in Transit Agreement (QTTA) to make use of Karachi and Gwadar ports for its trade operations. Current members of QTTA are China, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. Afghanistan is not a member of QTTA but it currently uses Gwadar and Karachi ports under Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA). Pakistan is making a serious effort to stabilize Afghanistan, a member of CAREC. The recent US-Taliban peace deal is the result of Pakistan's efforts to bring the warring sides to the negotiating table. Afghan instability has prevented Pakistan from connecting with other STANs for commerce and trade. Now the development of CPEC will enable Pakistan to bypass Afghanistan, if necessary, to connect with Central Asia region through Western China.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2020/05/carec-more-landlocked-states-look-to...

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 9, 2021 at 10:30am

The spatial competition between containerised rail and sea transport in Eurasia

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-019-0334-6

The competition in space between rail and sea transport is of great significance to the integration of Eurasia. This paper proposes a land and sea transport spatial balance model for container transport, which can extract a partition line on which transport costs by rail and sea are equal given a destination. Four scenarios are discussed to analyse the effects of different factors on the model. Then the model is empirically tested on current rail and sea transport networks to identify the transport competition pattern in Eurasia. The location of destinations, the freight costs, and time costs are the three main factors affecting the model. Among them, time costs are determined by the value of a container and its contents, the interest rate, and by time differences between land and sea transport. The case study shows that Eurasia forms a transport competition pattern with a land area to sea area ratio of about 1:2; this ratio, however, changes to 1:1 when time costs are considered. Further, the land and sea transport balance lines are consistent with the theories of geopolitics, which indicate that the same processes may exist in the spatial pattern of geo-economics and geopolitics in Eurasia. According to the balance lines, we get a spatial partition, dividing Eurasia into the land transport preferred area, the land–sea transport indifference area, and the sea transport preferred area. The paper brings a new perspective to the exploration of geopolitical economic spatial patterns of Eurasia and provides a practical geographic theory as an analytic basis for the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative.

-----------

There are some limitations in the case study too. First, it is based on the precondition of using Beijing and Berlin as the destinations, and the current fluctuated values of speeds, goods and freight rates are all set unique. According to the simulation under different scenarios, preferential policies for transportation could be carried out by governments or transport companies in different places, which could further strengthen the practicality of our model. Specifically, some countries (such as India) oppose China’s BRI (Blah, 2018; Pattanaik, 2018). Therefore, we could add evaluations of the strategies for infrastructure construction, of such countries, in the future. Second, container transportation is a complex process. The extent to which the cross-border transportation between countries is frictionless will affect the land transport pattern. Moreover, these factors are difficult to quantify and have not been considered in this paper, such as unequal freight cost rates in different countries, different capabilities and widths of rails, time spent at ports, tariffs, insurance costs and so on, which may also influence actual costs. Third, in not considering the road network, this paper presents a basic possible pattern of land and sea transport balance based on the current railway and maritime networks, which may bias our results. At a strategic level, the results can offer positive suggestions to influence a better approach for transportation. It will, however, be necessary for individual decision-makers to make accurate calculations of the costs of different routes at a micro-level. Additionally, container shipping on the northern sea route is a potential transport corridor (Verny and Grigentin, 2009), it could be included in the future study. Moreover, because of the organisational system and mature development of transport companies, the related data of container transport are easy to obtain, which helps determining the costs and speeds more easily. In contrast, it is hardly to collect datasets of bulk transport. However, the effect of bulk transport may be significant because it is likely to form a large proportion of global maritime trade (J.P.Morgan Asset Management, 2019). This may render some ports more economically viable.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 9, 2021 at 10:38am

The spatial competition between containerised rail and sea transport in Eurasia

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-019-0334-6

In the future, the BRI will be significant to the integration of economic trade in Eurasia, following the premise that land and sea transport should find a spatial balance. In fact, analysis of the competition and cooperation between land and sea transport can also be of theoretical significance for transport geography. This paper presents a LSTSB model based on the conceptualised Eurasia and simulates different land–sea transport scenarios. We then identify the transport balance lines by applying the model to Eurasia and present the partition of land and sea transport dominated areas in line with the theories of geopolitics.

The main insights are as follows:

Four scenarios based on different locations of destination, different freight costs, different values of a container’s goods and different speeds of transport are simulated using the theoretical model. They show that these basic factors influence the spatial balance lines of transportation. The results indicate that land transport is relatively competitive with sea transport but that this depends on different factors. Land transport may be undervalued at present due to long-term cooperation behaviour between governments or enterprises with maritime companies.

The case study shows that in terms of freight costs, maritime transport has an obvious advantage in Eurasia. The transport spatial balance line divides the Eurasian continent into a land and sea transport competitive pattern with an area ratio of 1:2. However, this ratio changes to 1:1 when we take time costs into consideration. Results show that the Economic Belt on road has economic feasibility and rationality.

Furthermore, the spatially competitive pattern of land–sea transport in Eurasia is highly consistent with geopolitical theories. This paper presents a partition of transport areas based on the calculation of balance lines, showing the land transport preferred area, the sea transport preferred area and the land–sea transport indifference area. The partition shows that the China–Russia–EU region, located in the land transport preferred area and the land–sea transport indifference area, is the key pivot area of integration influencing the current economic geographic imbalance in Eurasia. Further, it can serve as the analytic basis underpinning the necessity of increasing cooperation between China and the EU under the BRI, which is in the land–sea indifference area. Thus, the LSTSB model can bring a new perspective to the discussion of the spatial pattern of geopolitics and geo-economics in Eurasia.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 9, 2021 at 11:55am

Impact of Transport Cost and Travel Time on Trade under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
Khalid Mehmood Alam


https://www.hindawi.com/journals/jat/2019/7178507/


China is the second biggest economy in the world and almost 40% of its trade in 2016 is transported through the South China Sea. China needs a small, secure, and low-cost path to trade with Europe and the Middle East and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a feasible solution to this requirement. This research analyzes the effect of CPEC on trade in terms of transport cost and travel time. In addition, the study compares the existing routes and the new CPEC route. The research methodology consists of qualitative and descriptive statistical methods. The variables (transport cost and travel time) are calculated and compared for both the existing route and new CPEC route. The results show that transport cost for 40-foot container between Kashgar and destination ports in the Middle East is decreased by about $1450 dollars and for destination ports in Europe is decreased by $1350 dollars. Additionally, travel time is decreased by 21 to 24 days for destination ports in the Middle East and 21 days for destination ports in Europe. The distance from Kashgar to destination ports in the Middle East and Europe is decreased by 11,000 to 13,000 km.

Transportation is the shifting of goods by truck, rail, road, and sea and is reasoned as an important indicator for economic development [1]. Transport has two main parts. The first part represents vehicles that are either van, truck, rails, airplanes, or ships and second part represents the transport infrastructure such as roads, highways, seaways, airways, and railway tracks on which transport runs smoothly. In the recent days, both parts of transportation are considered as an important factor of trade and help in reducing transportation cost and travel time. The selection of transport mode for delivery of goods within less time and minimum cost is important to maximize the profit. Every state tries its best to discover short trade routes that can reduce trade cost and transfer time. To enhance their trade, countries invest in transport infrastructures like roads and rails and adequate transport infrastructure can potentially reduce transport cost and travel time. Transport cost and travel time are considered as the most important among all factors [2].

Shipping industry plays an significant part in the development of trade and about 80% of world trade is transported by the international shipping industry [3, 4]. The import and export of goods on large scale are not possible without shipping [5]. China is the second biggest economy and energy user in the world and safety of the oil supply chain stay the essential idea of China’s strategies [6]. China is importing about 83% of oil supplies by sea, out of which 77% are functioning through the Strait of Malacca, a possible bottleneck for China [7]. There are some factors like China’s regional disputes, pirate incidences, and geopolitics that make the Strait of Malacca as an attentive weakness for China and may stop economic development in case of any unanticipated events [8, 9]. About 60% of world pirate occurrences take place in the Strait of Malacca and presence of the Indian and US armadas in the seaway rises serious security concerns and in case of any unforeseen actions can affect trade and economic supplies of China [10–12]. To overcome these challenges, China wants to get access to deep water through Pakistan. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will link the city of Kashgar in Western China and the Gwadar Port in Pakistan by developing a transport infrastructure network comprising road and rail. Kashgar has great economic opportunities for the shortest land access to the local markets of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, India, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan [13].

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 9, 2021 at 4:54pm

Of #Pakistan's total $66 billion of annual #trade in 2020, #China accounted for $11.2 billion & North #America $6.76 billion. It plans to grow trade with 5 landlocked Stans in #CentralAsia to $1.5 billion a year from less than a billion in past decade. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-09/pakistan-seeks-m...

The South Asian nation is looking to finalize a new trade accord with Kabul by June, Abdul Razak Dawood, the commerce adviser to Prime Minister Imran Khan, said in an interview in Islamabad. It plans to grow trade with five landlocked Central Asian nations -- Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan -- to about $1.5 billion a year from less than a billion in the past decade, he said.

“We’re too restricted to a few countries -- North America, European Union and China,” said Dawood. “But there is a much bigger world.”

The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan promises a return of stability and provides an opportunity to Pakistan to strengthen commerce with its neighbor, which sits at the cross-roads of South and Central Asia. Also, Islamabad stands to benefit from greater trade with Central Asian markets that are rich in energy resources needed to feed its ambition to grow its industrial base.

Read: Biden Pulls the Plug on Afghan War at Risk of Turmoil Ahead

Pakistan is due to sign transit and preferential trade agreement with Uzbekistan in July, Dawood said.

The South Asian economy’s move to scout for newer markets stems from the need to diversify its trade basket that’s heavily reliant on the U.S., EU and China. Of its total $66 billion of annual trade in the year ended June 2020, China accounted for $11.2 billion and North America $6.76 billion, according to data from State Bank of Pakistan.

Analysts see the new push in the context of Pakistan’s geo-strategic framework, which draws from the economic cooperation espoused by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative.

While China has channeled investments toward electricity generation in Pakistan as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, it’s financing has also been focused on gas- and oil-based projects for exploration and distribution in Central Asia.

“Economy is one part of the strategic outlook,” Vaqar Ahmed, joint executive director at Sustainable Development Policy Institute said. “Ultimately you would need economy, trade and investment cooperation to keep excitement in your strategic interests.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 19, 2021 at 7:13am

#Trade-growth bid sees #Pakistan look nearer to home in #CentralAsia.“We’re too restricted to a few countries,” Abdul Razak Dawood, the commerce adviser to PM Imran Khan, said in an interview. “But there is a much bigger world.” #exports https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-05-19/supply-chains... via @business

Trucks carrying processed leather from Uzbekistan have arrived in Pakistan, a sign that the southern Asian economy’s efforts to expand land trade in its neighborhood are paying off.

The arrival of the cargo in the northwestern Pakistani city of Peshawar via Afghanistan marks the first step in Islamabad’s goal to grow commerce with central Asian nations to about $1.5 billion per year from less than $1 billion in the past decade.

Pakistan’s focus on central Asia is a departure from its reliance hitherto on three key markets — North America, European Union and China. Expanding trade with resources-rich Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan also fits Islamabad’s ambition of growing its industrial base.

“We’re too restricted to a few countries,” Abdul Razak Dawood, the commerce adviser to Prime Minister Imran Khan, said in an interview. “But there is a much bigger world.”

Pakistan is due to sign a transit and preferential trade agreement with Uzbekistan in July, he said, adding that an accord with Afghanistan would also be wrapped up by June.

Analysts see the new push in the context of Pakistan’s geo-strategic framework, which draws from the economic cooperation championed by Chinese President Xi Jinping as part of his Belt and Road Initiative.

While China has channeled investments toward electricity generation in Pakistan as part of its BRI deals, it’s financing has also been focused on gas- and oil-based projects for exploration and distribution in central Asia.

“Economy is one part of the strategic outlook,” said Vaqar Ahmed, a joint executive director at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute. “Ultimately you would need economy, trade and investment cooperation to keep excitement in your strategic interests.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 14, 2021 at 4:52pm

#Chinese business leaders confident in #Pakistan after meeting with PM #ImranKhan. Khan has promised to chair a monthly meeting to address their concerns. #CPEC #China #infrastructure #Business #trade #Industry - Global Times https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1234278.shtml#.YUE0FH8Gd2k.t...

Several Chinese business leaders on Tuesday expressed increased confidence in their operations in Pakistan after attending a meeting with Prime Minister Imran Khan of Pakistan on Monday that was aimed at addressing Chinese firms' concerns regarding policy support and security after recent terrorist attacks.

During the meeting with a delegation of Chinese business leaders, Khan vowed to chair a monthly self-review meeting to address their concerns, according to local media, sending a strong signal that the Pakistani government attaches great importance to Chinese companies.

Zhang Shilu, general manager of Zhengbang Agriculture Pakistan (Pvt) Limited, who attended the meeting, told the Global Times on Tuesday that the meeting was held in response to concerns that have gripped Chinese investors.

"Chinese enterprises encountered some difficulties in doing business in Pakistan and we expressed our expectations to the Pakistani Prime Minister, who showed that Pakistan attaches great importance to the development of Chinese enterprises in Pakistan. It greatly increases the confidence of Chinese enterprises," Zhang said.

He added that at the investment meeting, representatives of Chinese enterprises voiced their hopes that Pakistan could introduce an industrial park management committee - a common practice in China - to simplify approval processes.

Zhengbang Agriculture currently produces pesticides, including insecticides, fungicides, and herbicides and fertilizers in Pakistan, which are used on all types of crops in the country, including cotton, rice, wheat, citrus and mangoes.

According to Pakistani Prime Minister's Office Twitter account, Chinese enterprises that attended the meeting included OPPO, Shanghai Challenge Textile Co, and Easy Prefabricated Homes Pvt, a subsidiary of Henan D.R. Construction Group Co.

George Long, CEO of OPPO Pakistan, told the Global Times on Tuesday that the company was hoping for some form of preferential tax treatment and land policies from the Pakistani government to support its R&D and high-tech production. This would boost local employment and local tech supply chains would also be steadied, Long said.

The Chinese phone vendor's foray into the Pakistan market began in 2014 and it has built 17 aftersales services centers and more than 5,000 retail outlets across the country. "We're confident about expanding investment in Pakistan and bringing quality smart gadgets to the people of Pakistan," Long said.

A manager surnamed Jin with Henan D.R. Construction Group who participated in Monday's meeting told the Global Times that the agenda of the meeting included difficulties for Chinese-funded firms in the local industrial park that include land purchases and natural gas and power supplies.

In October 2019, the company purchased 6.1 acres of land in an industrial park as a factory production base, and started to build the factory after the land purchase procedures were approved in December 2019.

The company had been applying for power supplies and the use of natural gas, but no progress has yet been made, even though construction for the factory was completed in March. Pakistani authorities pledged to look into the matters, Jin said.

Participants in the meeting also discussed security issues that have been under the spotlight in the wake of recent terrorist attacks targeting Chinese personnel.

"After previous terrorist attacks on Chinese project personnel, Pakistan has equipped our factories with a special protection unit," said Jin, adding that the company remains upbeat about investment and business expansion in Pakistan, citing favorable investment policies.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 20, 2021 at 8:26pm

Central Asia-South Asia connectivity may hinge on Pakistan-US relations
BY JAMES DURSO, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR — 10/20/21 05:40 PM EDT

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/577672-central-asia-south...

What should the U.S. do?

Don’t be the spoiler: Blocking projects that may benefit the economies of Afghanistan and Pakistan will push Central and South Asia into the arms of Russia and China.

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Connectivity between Central Asia and South Asia is needed if the regions are to escape the gravitation pull of Russia and China. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, which border Afghanistan, have established relations with the Taliban government as many key economic projects require stability in Afghanistan.

In February 2021, representatives of Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan agreed to a roadmap for the Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar railway project, a 600-km track to be built over five years. The rail project will run alongside regional power projects — the 1,000-megawatt Surkhan-Puli-Khumri high-voltage power line and the 1,300-megawatt CASA-1000 energy project — that supply power to Afghanistan and Pakistan. The final key project is the stalled 1,100-mile Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) natural-gas pipeline that can ship 33 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually, and will relieve Ashgabat of Beijing’s leverage as China currently receives 90 percent of Turkmenistan’s gas.

Pakistan has successfully arbitraged its location by supporting the U.S. in two wars in Afghanistan and reaping significant financial benefits in the process. It is a partner with China in the $62 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the largest project in the Belt and Road Initiative. Now Pakistan may be Central Asia’s partner linking the region to maritime trade routes via the ports of Karachi and Gwadar, and Pakistan’s large internal market of over 200 million people, 60 percent of them under the age of 30.

In Afghanistan, the U.S. and Pakistan weren’t even fighting the same war. U.S. officials have accused Pakistan of a “double game,” but Islamabad was eyeing the “next game” — the conflict with India. The U.S. anticipated a formal end of hostilities after it defeated the Taliban and restructured Afghan society, but Pakistan knew even if the U.S. departed in victory, it would still have India to contend with and war in Afghanistan was just a way to position itself for the next phase of the struggle. Pakistan could use the Taliban to build “strategic depth,” recruit fighters it could deploy against India in Kashmir, and be paid for helping Uncle Sam. The Pakistani generals were channeling Paul von Hindenburg who, when he recommended the annexation of the Baltic Provinces into the German Empire said, “I need them for the maneuvering of my left wing in the next war.”

America sees wars as finite events that end at Appomattox Courthouse or on the battleship Missouri; Pakistan sees war as a process.

U.S. policy in Afghanistan is pretty much now just “women and girls,” which ignores that leaders in Central and South Asia are also responsible for women and girls. The U.S. should not allow its differences with the Taliban to block regional trade arrangements — which will have to include the Kabul government — and thereby hand a political win (and financial windfall) to Russia and China by limiting the region’s trade options.

A bill has been introduced in the U.S. Senate, the “Afghanistan Counterterrorism, Oversight, and Accountability Act of 2021,” that, among other things, directs the Biden administration to “develop a revised strategy for South and Central Asia,” and also requires an assessment of Pakistan’s support for the Taliban from 2001 to 2021.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 25, 2022 at 4:33pm

CAREC ENERGY OUTLOOK 2030

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/850111/carec-en...

Country with a high share of biomass: Pakistan
Pakistan has a high share of biomass in its energy consumption, which is expected to gradually reduce
as the share of natural gas increases. While Pakistan has a well-diversified energy supply overall,
with availability of oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, and hydropower, it is expected to promote the use of
renewables considering future cost efficiencies and high technical potential.

-------------

Only two CAREC member countries currently operate nuclear power plants—Pakistan (1 GW of installed
capacity) and the PRC (48 GW). Both countries view nuclear power as a key part of their national energy
systems that provides a stable baseload of electricity. Two other members, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan,
have initiated large-scale nuclear power plant projects, with commissioning planned prior to 2030. Both
countries are major producers of uranium, a key fuel for nuclear power plants, with Kazakhstan being the
largest producer of uranium globally. While nuclear power can offer significant advantages in terms of
scale and reliable power generation, a comprehensive system of security safeguards should be in place
to prevent malfunction and guarantee safe management of nuclear waste while respecting international
non-proliferation agreements.

----------

Several countries are also working on liberalizing their energy markets by shifting from vertically integrated
state-owned companies to unbundled energy markets. Such market structures reduce uncertainties for
private investors. For example, Tajikistan has unbundled Barqi Tojik, a vertically integrated electric utility,
into three independent companies, with each in charge of a different function: electricity generation,
transmission, and distribution. Georgia introduced power generation rules that were approved in 2020
in line with the principles of market liberalization, establishing a competitive electricity market. Pakistan
approved a comprehensive framework and implementation plan in 2020 aimed at building a competitive
wholesale power market by 2022.

------------------

The CAREC region’s cross-border ties and possibilities for trade provide another opportunity for investors.
For instance, the Central Asian Power System (CAPS) interconnects Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan, with Tajikistan expected to be reconnected in 2022) at different voltage
levels. Some other large interconnection projects include the Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline,
supplying natural gas from Azerbaijan via Georgia to Türkiye and Europe; the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–
Pakistan Power Interconnection; and the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India gas pipeline. While
predictions as to whether and when the last two projects can be commissioned are difficult because of
the political situation in Afghanistan, these projects highlight the solid potential of regional trade in the
CAREC region

------------

Almost 200 nations agreed to phase down coal usage at the 26th United Nations Climate Change
Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow in 2021 to tackle climate change. Forty-six nations stepped
up their pledges to phase out coal-fired power plants and only build new plants under the condition they
are equipped with carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology (Rives 2021). The Glasgow
Climate Pact calls on countries to revisit their emission reduction targets by the end of 2022 to try to
keep the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target achievable. More than 100 countries signed the Global Methane
Pledge announced by the US, EU, and other partners at the COP26, agreeing to reduce their overall
emissions by 30% by 2030, compared to 2020 levels (Maizland 2021). Seven CAREC countries (Georgia,
Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Pakistan, the PRC, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) have submitted stronger NDCs

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 25, 2022 at 4:33pm

CAREC ENERGY OUTLOOK 2030

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/850111/carec-en...

Country with a high share of biomass: Pakistan
Pakistan has a high share of biomass in its energy consumption, which is expected to gradually reduce
as the share of natural gas increases. While Pakistan has a well-diversified energy supply overall,
with availability of oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, and hydropower, it is expected to promote the use of
renewables considering future cost efficiencies and high technical potential.

-------------

Only two CAREC member countries currently operate nuclear power plants—Pakistan (1 GW of installed
capacity) and the PRC (48 GW). Both countries view nuclear power as a key part of their national energy
systems that provides a stable baseload of electricity. Two other members, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan,
have initiated large-scale nuclear power plant projects, with commissioning planned prior to 2030. Both
countries are major producers of uranium, a key fuel for nuclear power plants, with Kazakhstan being the
largest producer of uranium globally. While nuclear power can offer significant advantages in terms of
scale and reliable power generation, a comprehensive system of security safeguards should be in place
to prevent malfunction and guarantee safe management of nuclear waste while respecting international
non-proliferation agreements.

----------

Several countries are also working on liberalizing their energy markets by shifting from vertically integrated
state-owned companies to unbundled energy markets. Such market structures reduce uncertainties for
private investors. For example, Tajikistan has unbundled Barqi Tojik, a vertically integrated electric utility,
into three independent companies, with each in charge of a different function: electricity generation,
transmission, and distribution. Georgia introduced power generation rules that were approved in 2020
in line with the principles of market liberalization, establishing a competitive electricity market. Pakistan
approved a comprehensive framework and implementation plan in 2020 aimed at building a competitive
wholesale power market by 2022.

------------------

The CAREC region’s cross-border ties and possibilities for trade provide another opportunity for investors.
For instance, the Central Asian Power System (CAPS) interconnects Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan, with Tajikistan expected to be reconnected in 2022) at different voltage
levels. Some other large interconnection projects include the Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline,
supplying natural gas from Azerbaijan via Georgia to Türkiye and Europe; the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–
Pakistan Power Interconnection; and the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India gas pipeline. While
predictions as to whether and when the last two projects can be commissioned are difficult because of
the political situation in Afghanistan, these projects highlight the solid potential of regional trade in the
CAREC region

------------

Almost 200 nations agreed to phase down coal usage at the 26th United Nations Climate Change
Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow in 2021 to tackle climate change. Forty-six nations stepped
up their pledges to phase out coal-fired power plants and only build new plants under the condition they
are equipped with carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology (Rives 2021). The Glasgow
Climate Pact calls on countries to revisit their emission reduction targets by the end of 2022 to try to
keep the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target achievable. More than 100 countries signed the Global Methane
Pledge announced by the US, EU, and other partners at the COP26, agreeing to reduce their overall
emissions by 30% by 2030, compared to 2020 levels (Maizland 2021). Seven CAREC countries (Georgia,
Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Pakistan, the PRC, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) have submitted stronger NDCs

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