Pakistan: Hopes Rise For Cheap and Abundant Electricity

Pakistani power sector is continuing its march toward cheap indigenous sources of electricity. Hydropower component has increased 22%, coal 57% and nuclear 8% while oil is down 54% and natural gas and LNG are down 32% and 15% respectively, according to Bloomberg. These changes in power mix are expected to help significantly reduce power subsidies that run into hundreds of billions of rupees contributing to large annual budget deficits.

Data From NEPRA. Courtesy Pakistan Today


Coal's contribution to power mix now stands at just 21%, in spite of 57% increase in use of coal in Fiscal Year 2020. It is still almost half of the global average of 38% of electricity produced from coal. Overall, the contribution of fossil fuels in electricity generation is now about 54%, down from nearly 66% a few years ago.

Pakistan Power Generation Mix. Source: Bloomberg


Hydropower and natural gas now contribute 32% each, making them the biggest sources of electricity in Pakistan. Coal comes next at 21%, followed by nuclear at 8%.

Pakistan Power Generation Plan 2019-2040. Courtesy of World Economi...


One of the biggest economic challenges Pakistan faces is it growing debt and deficit from subsidies to the power sector. Often referred to as "circular debt" in Pakistan, the government owes Rs. 1.6 trillion ($7.2 billion) to power sector at the end of June 2019. Pakistan government is now is committed to improving the situation by its development of an Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) that runs until 2040.



Change in Sources of Electricity in 2020. Source: Bloomberg

Pakistan recent efforts to diversify its fuel mix for cost reduction are raising hopes for cheap and abundant electricity needed for its industries and residential consumers.  Already, the electricity generation cost is down 11% and current account deficit has declined 78%. There is a plan called "Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan" in place. Execution is the key to making the power sector greener, cheaper and more reliable.
Fuel Mix For Power Generation in Pakistan. Source: Third Pole

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Comment by Riaz Haq on August 24, 2022 at 4:15pm

Answering Pakistan’s Burning Question: How To Ignite Lignite?

Amy Kover

Buried 1,000 feet below the parched Thar Desert in Pakistan lies more fuel energy than all the known oil in Iran and Saudi Arabia combined. Just a small fraction of this 175-billion-ton lignite coal reserve is plentiful enough to supply one-fifth of Pakistan’s current energy levels for 50 years. This would significantly bolster the energy supply to Pakistan’s 200 million residents, who per capita have access to roughly just 3 percent of the electricity a typical American consumes. As a local resource, it would also lower hefty bills for imported oil and coal, diminishing Pakistan’s reliance on outside sources for energy.

The problem is that lignite is about as combustible as soggy logs in a fireplace. Composed of more than 50 percent water, as well as other impurities, lignite is known as low-caloric fuel — an ideal description for diet products, but not so much for an electricity resource. That’s partly why Thar’s reserve has gone largely untapped since its accidental discovery in 1992 by geologists searching for drinkable water. Even nine years ago, when the private-public partnership Sindh Engro Coal Mining Company purchased 1 percent of the reserve for mining, one question continued to confound power plant operators: How to ignite lignite?


Last month, an answer arrived. GE Power — which has experience burning a similar form of lignite coal in Europe and the U.S. — will bring its boiler and steam turbine technology to Pakistan. Chinese contractor SEPCOIII announced plans, in June, to use GE Power’s systems as part of its new power plant near Karachi. Known as “Qasim-Lucky,” the plant will generate 660 megawatts of electricity to power 1.3 million Pakistani homes and businesses when Lucky Power begins commercial operations in 2021. “As the first lignite-fueled ultra-supercritical power plant across the Middle East, North Africa and Turkey region, the project will help to set new industry benchmarks in Pakistan,” Qin Xubao, project director at SEPCOIII, said recently.


Ultra-supercritical (USC)” is the operative term here — it describes the titanic pressures GE achieves inside the steam turbine — but first some background. This groundbreaking process begins with GE Power’s mill, known as the Beater Wheel, grinding lignite coal so it’s as fine as baby powder. With more surface area exposed, the tiny particles of coal dry more easily as hot air blows the dust into the combustion chamber. There, even hotter air — temperatures averaging 650 degrees Fahrenheit (340 degrees Celsius) — combusts the pulverized lignite into flue gas.

An “ultra supercritical” steam turbine at the RDK8 power plant in Germany. The water pressure inside reaches 4,000 pounds per square inch, more than what’s exerted when a bullet strikes a solid object. The water, which exists in a “supercritical state,” is heated to 1,112 degrees Fahrenheit (600 degrees Celsius). Top: The boilers of an ultra-supercritical power plant in Neurath, Germany. Images credit: GE Steam Power.

When it comes to combusting lignite, size matters. Every square centimeter of the boiler must fill evenly with gas. Since different fuels burn at different temperatures, GE designs its boilers with Goldilocks dimensions: neither so small that the fuel overheats nor so big that it won’t combust. Just as crucial is the positioning of each component in the boiler. “The way you inject the air into the flame, the way you manage the size of the flame and positioning of the flame, it all impacts how the lignite will react and burn,” explains Sacha Parneix, commercial general manager for GE’s Steam Power business in the Middle East, North Africa and Turkey (MENAT). “We have a lot of design features to make sure that we manage to truly burn this fuel that does not want to completely burn easily.”


Flue gas then travels up to the steam boiler, where its heat transforms water stored in tubes into steam power. The steam’s mechanical energy spins enormous turbines to power electricity generators. It’s also when another kind of engineering magic — GE Power’s steam turbine — kicks in. GE’s ultra-supercritical science puts steam under pressure of roughly 4,000 pounds per square inch — the same impact as a bullet striking a solid object — and heats to 1,112 degrees Fahrenheit  (600 degrees Celsius). The heat and pressure turn steam into a supercritical fluid, a phenomenon where a substance no longer has specific liquid and gas phases but exhibits properties of both at the same time. In this state, the steam can get turbines spinning faster than any other system in operation, more than 20 percent above the world-average net thermal-efficiency rate of coal-fired power plants — a measure of how well the plant converts fuel into heat. That kind of efficiency gobbles up less fuel, reducing both operating expenses and carbon dioxide emissions per kilowatt-hour generated.


Though Lucky Power plans to rely on lignite mined from Thar (with some exports for backup), the plant itself is situated 276 miles (445 kilometers) away in the outskirts of densely populated Karachi. That’s a significant boon to Qasim. “On top of being designed for local Pakistani Thar coal, the project’s location ensures easy connectivity to the national grid and very low transmission and distribution losses in supplying affordable power to the major load center of the city of Karachi,” Parneix says.


All of this further augments GE Power’s work to help Pakistan diversify its power grid. Last May, the company achieved commercial operation for two HA gas turbines for the Bhikki combined-cycle plant in Lahore to power up to 2.4 million homes. GE’s HA gas turbines are planned for operation at two other power plants in Pakistan: Balloki, near Chunian, and Haveli Bahadur Shah, in Jhang. The Haveli Bahadur Shah plant alone is expected to add the electricity capacity needed for another 2.5 million homes. GE also worked with Hawa Energy to launch a 50-megawatt wind farm along the Gharo-Keti Bandar wind corridor in Jhimpir. So far, a quarter of Pakistan’s electricity flows through fuel-agnostic GE-built technologies, supporting Pakistan’s fuel-diversification power-generation strategy.


If things go as planned at Qasim, Thar-mined lignite will get to play a starring role in this story of “How Pakistan Got Its Electric Groove On.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on November 19, 2022 at 4:51pm

#India, the world's 3rd largest polluter, binges on #coal, outpaces #Asia. India's coal-fired #electricity output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia since #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine. #Carbon #cop27egypt #SharmElSheikh https://www.thedailystar.net/business/global-economy/indian/news/in...

Coal fuels nearly three-quarters of the power output of India, which presented its decarbonisation strategy at the United Nation's COP27 climate summit this week - the last of the world's five largest economies to do so.

For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel.
Use of coal globally, including in power generation, has grown since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February sent prices of other fossil fuels surging, derailing efforts to transition to cleaner fuels.

But the increase in India's coal-fired power output has outstripped its regional peers, data from the government and analysts showed.

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India's coal-fired power output increased more than 10 per cent year-on-year from March to October to 757.82 terawatt hours, an analysis of government data shows, as electricity demand increased off the back of a heatwave and pickup in economic activity.

The government expects this output to grow at the fastest pace in at least a decade in the current fiscal year ending March 2023.


An analysis of data from independent think tank Ember shows India's surge in coal-fired output for the March-to-August period was 14 times faster than the average in Asia Pacific.

The heat wave and economic revival following the pandemic meant overall electricity demand grew twice as fast as rest of the region, Ember's data shows.

The European Union was the only region where coal-fired power output grew at a rate faster than India, the Ember data says, as nations in the region scrambled to reduce their reliance on Russian supplies.

India is also the only major country in Asia, besides Japan, where the contribution of coal-fired power in overall electricity production increased in the six months since March, the data shows.

India wants countries to agree to phase down all fossil fuels at the COP27 summit, rather than a narrower deal to phase down coal as was agreed last year.

State-run Coal India, the country's dominant coal miner, ramped up production to meet the utility demand. It reported a 13.5 per cent year-on-year increase in its coal output in March-October to a record high of 432 million tonnes.

Imports of thermal coal, predominantly used in power generation, rose by more than a quarter in the same period, double the pace seen in the pre-Covid years between 2017 to 2019, data from consultancy Coalmint showed.

"Like in China, Indian coal-fired generation will be correlated with Indian power demand – if total demand increases, then more coal-fired generation will be needed," said Jake Horslen, an analyst at Energy Aspects.

In China, the government's strict "Covid-zero" policy and resulting restrictions, plus increased use of renewable and hydro sources of power generation, led to a decline in coal use.

Consultancy Wood Mackenzie expects India's coal-fired power output to grow 10 per cent in 2022 compared to the previous year. China's generation from the polluting fuel is expected to decline marginally.

India's government has said it was committed to achieve net zero emissions by 2070, and official data reviewed by Reuters shows that renewable energy generation grew 21 per cent in March to October, even as coal use for power increased.

India is expected to add up to 360 gigawatts of power generation capacity from clean energy sources to its overall output over the next decade, said Hetal Gandhi, director of research at CRISIL Market Intelligence. "This would help lower coal's contribution in generation by 40-45 per cent by fiscal 2032," he said.

Comment by Riaz Haq on February 24, 2023 at 1:15pm

The war in Ukraine: Impact on Pakistan’s energy security

by Waqar Rizvi


https://www.freiheit.org/south-asia/war-ukraine-impact-pakistans-en...

Pakistan has long dealt with energy-insecurity, a state of affairs exacerbated by the disastrous economic effects of the pandemic, floods and war in Ukraine. While some experts warned Pakistan that its energy dependence was untenable, there were others who believed such concerns were overblown thanks to the abundance and low cost of Liquefied Natural Gas. The war in Ukraine has proven the latter group wrong, the subsequent sanctions disrupting energy supplies from Russia and driving up global prices. Europe's entry into the market and ability to meet any cost in securing limited worldwide supplies place Pakistan in an even more difficult position.

Pakistani officials already warn of mass gas shortages, and load-shedding in households is rampant with areas of the country experiencing daily power cuts that are 16 hours long. The country’s vital textile industry also stands to suffer from an interrupted and limited supply. This situation exists despite Pakistan's possession of exploitable natural resources, owing to policy-makers' dogmatic view that the development of these resources for self-reliance was unachievable. In addition, insecurity and political instability in areas such as resource-rich Balochistan have thwarted any remedial measures.

Pakistan’s alliances and loyalties with traditional allies are being tested at this difficult time. To encourage vital foreign investment in Pakistan's energy sector, the government can take advantage of the desire of the Chinese, Russians, Americans and Europeans to gain influence in the country. Restricted by geopolitical considerations from taking sides in the war on Ukraine, Pakistan must secure its national interests, especially energy security.

Pakistan should eschew inactivity despite the risk of being outbid in the competitive global LNG market. Responsible energy policymaking must be embraced, including the implementation and incentivisation of energy conservation measures, whilst shielding the lower classes from additional energy costs. Needed is a multifaceted energy policy that considers all available resources such as gas, oil, coal, solar, hydro and wind power. Experts must be involved in the formulation of sound strategies to exploit these sources, and Pakistan must learn from its mistakes, such its signing of bad-faith contracts with LNG middlemen, which allowed them to abandon Pakistan's agreements for profits.

However, political turmoil remains the largest contributor to Pakistan's energy insecurity. The government and opposition parties will need to put aside their partisan bickering to prioritize the country’s interests. Sound policies grounded in reality, as opposed to theoretical ones, are called for, and leaders must step up during crises.

Pakistan is in dire need of an infrastructural upgrade and must play all its cards to achieve it. Diplomatically, Pakistan holds significant influence in international forums and has valuable voting power at the United Nations. Economically, Pakistan can promise significant benefits to nations that invest in its natural resources.

Comment by Riaz Haq on February 24, 2023 at 9:15pm

Transmission constraints leave Thar plants underutilised - Business - DAWN.COM

https://www.dawn.com/news/1738824

Only 1,800MW of the 2,400MW Thar power plants can be evacuated at any given time owing to transmission constraints. Delays in the construction of the second transmission line between Thar and Matiari Converter Station have resulted in the coal-based power plants sitting idle despite ranking highly on the merit order of efficient electricity producers.

Central Power Purchasing Agency-Guarantee Ltd (CPPA-G), which is the government-owned single buyer of electricity from independent power producers, recently wrote a letter to National Transmission and Despatch Company Ltd (NTDC) demanding that CPPA-G be updated about the “progress and tentative commissioning date” of the transmission line.

“It is clear that in the present scheme, all four Thar coal power projects cannot be evacuated completely at once, which raises a serious concern on the power evacuation and the capacity of the transmission line,” said the letter seen by Dawn.

Demand for electricity will increase in the coming summer season, but the “full cheap-power evacuation from indigenous coal is not possible” under the current circumstances, it added.

Power generation began in Thar with two coal-based plants of 330MW each by Engro Powergen in Block-2. Later on, Hub Power along with other shareholders built two more power plants of 330MW each in the same Block-2.

Meanwhile, Shanghai Electric built two power plants of 660MW each in Block-1 of Thar coalfields. Around 2,400MW of the installed capacity of 2,640MW is dispatchable. But only one transmission line, which can carry up to 1,800MW, is currently available for the four Thar projects.

The inadequacy of infrastructure has resulted in “abnormal voltage” and “frequency fluctuations” for Thar power plants on the sole dedicated transmission line, the CCPA-G said.

A source in the power sector told Dawn that the two plants in Block-1 are being despatched continuously because of their low per-unit cost of coal.

As for Block-2, the source said only two of the four plants are despatched at any given time — one each from Engro and Hub Power.

According to an energy sector expert, producing 600MW on imported coal instead of Thar coal is costing around $30 million every month. Producing that much electricity through imported gas should cost $35m in imports, he said.

Speaking to Dawn, a senior official of NTDC said work on the under-construction transmission line should be complete in “two to two and a half months”. The 220-kilometre long transmission line costing about Rs12 billion was supposed to be complete by August 2022. The deadline was extended to January this year, but that was also missed.

“Prices of everything from steel and cement went up three times. Then the floods hit and halted all construction work. Building a transmission line involves right-of-way issues, which make the process complicated and time-consuming,” he said, adding that the process should be over by the end of April.

Comment by Riaz Haq on February 25, 2023 at 8:38am

Amjad Hafeez
@AmjadHafeez19
Two 500KV double circuit transmission lines were planned from Thar to Matiari and 2016. One completed in 2019 to evacuate Engro Tahr 660MW. 2nd line couldn't be completed 2018-22 period for further 1980MW Thar Coal Evacuation.

https://twitter.com/AmjadHafeez19/status/1629372792159326209?s=20

Comment by Riaz Haq on February 26, 2023 at 11:12am

10 years of BRI: lawmakers visit Port Qasim Power Project

https://dailytimes.com.pk/1059922/10-years-of-bri-lawmakers-visit-p...

The Pakistan-China Institute (PCI) hosted a two-day delegation visit to CPEC projects such as the Port Qasim Power Project and the Thar Coal Mines at Sindh Electric Coal Mining Company, according to Gwadar Pro.

The delegation, led by Senator Mushahid Hussain Syed, included renowned parliamentarians from various political parties. Guo Guangling, CEO of Port Qasim Electric Power Company, hosted and welcomed the delegation on the first day and briefed them on the project’s unique operation.

The delegation was briefed on the most recent developments in CPEC’s energy sector, CPEC’ contribution to the Pakistani economy and the opportunities for interaction between Chinese investors and delegates.

The Port Qasim Power Project uses Super Critical Technology, which emits white smoke that is environmentally friendly. It is currently operational and connected to the national grid.

Senator Mushahid Hussain Syed thanked Power China and the people of China for trusting and investing in Pakistan, especially when Pakistan was facing the most deadly wave of terrorism. “By constructing an economic corridor that promotes connection, construction, exploration of investments, and people-to-people contacts for connectivity, CPEC is aiming to better the lives of the people of Pakistan and China,” he added.

According to the data provided by PCI, 12 energy projects have been completed under CPEC in the last 10 years. In total, there are 36 active projects with an estimated cost of $27.5 billion. It is expected that many of these projects will be completed by 2023.

As per the data, the completed energy projects include the 1320MW Sahiwal Coal-fired power plant, 1320 MW Coal-fired power plant at Port Qasim, Karachi, 1320 MW China Hub Coal Power Project, Hub Balochistan, 660 MW Engro Thar Coal Power Project, 720 MW Karot Hydropower Project, AJK/Punjab, 100MW UEP wind farm Jhimpir, Thatta, 50 MW Sachal wind farm, Jhimpir, Thatta, 100 MW Three Gorges second and third Wind power project, 1000 MW Quaid-e-Azam solar park Bahawalpur, 50 MW Hydro China Dawood Wind Farm Gharo, Thatta, Matiari to Lahore 660 KV HVDC transmission line project, 4000 MW evacuation capacity, and 330 MW HUBCO Thar coal power project.

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 23, 2023 at 9:29am

Cost of #India Quitting #Coal Is $900 Billion over 30 Years, says a report by #Indian Think Tank known as iFOREST. It identified 8 different cost factors, like setting up #infrastructure & getting workers ready for the transition. #energytransition https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2023-03-23/cost-of-in...

If India stopped burning coal tomorrow, over five million people would lose their jobs. But for a price tag of around $900 billion over the next 30 years, the country can make sure nobody is left behind in the huge move to clean energy to curb human-caused climate change, according to figures released by New Delhi-based think tank Thursday.

The International Forum for Environment, Sustainability and Technology, known by the acronym iFOREST, released two reports detailing how much it will cost for India to move away from coal and other dirty fuels without jeopardizing the livelihoods of millions who still are employed in coal mines and thermal power plants.

Ensuring that everyone can come along in the clean energy shift that's needed to stop the worst harms of climate change and guaranteeing new work opportunities for those in fossil fuel industries, known as a just transition, has been a major consideration for climate and energy analysts.

“Just transition should be viewed as an opportunity for India to support green growth in the country’s fossil fuel dependent states and districts,” said Chandra Bhushan, the head of iFOREST.

To get the $900 billion figure, the group researched four coal districts in India and identified eight different cost factors, like setting up infrastructure and getting workers ready for the transition.

The biggest single investment to enable a just transition will be the cost of setting up clean energy infrastructure, which the report estimates could be up to $472 billion by 2050. Providing workers with clean energy jobs will cost less than 10% of the total amount required for a just transition, or about $9 billion.

The think tank said $600 billion would come as investments in new industries and infrastructure, with an additional $300 billion as grants and subsidies to support coal industry workers and affected communities.

“The scale of transition is massive. If formal and informal sector workers are included, we are talking about an industry that is the lifeline for 15-20 million people,” said Sandeep Pai, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington D.C. based think tank. “Reports like this are extremely important since the just transition conversation is beginning only now in India ... we need much more of the same.”

India is one of the largest emitters of planet-warming gases, behind only China, the U.S. and the EU. The country depends on coal for 75% of its electricity needs and for 55% of its overall energy needs.

The country is still a far way off quitting coal. Earlier this month, the Indian government issued emergency orders stipulating that coal plants are run at full capacity through this summer to avoid any power outages. The country’s coal use is expected to peak between 2035 and 2040, according to government figures.

Prime minister Narendra Modi announced in 2021 that the country will achieve net zero emissions — where it only puts out greenhouse gases that it can somehow offset — by 2070. On Monday, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres urged nations to speed up their net zero goals, calling for developing countries to set a target of 2050. He was met with a muted response.

The reports recommends that the Indian government focuses on retiring old and unprofitable mines and power plants first. Over 200 of India's more than 459 mines can be retired in this way.

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 29, 2023 at 1:06pm

Pakistani PM inaugurates coal power plant under CPEC

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202303/1287903.shtml


Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif here on Wednesday formally inaugurated the Thar Coal Block-I Coal Electricity Integration project, an energy cooperation project under the framework of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

The plant, which was officially put into commercial operation in early February, has two 660-megawatt high-parameter coal-fired generating units, supported by an annual output of 7.8 million tons of lignite open-pit coal mine. It is capable of meeting the electricity demand of 4 million households in Pakistan.

Addressing the inauguration ceremony, Sharif said that it is a moment of great delight for the whole of Pakistan.

This was a desert region with the sand dunes only, the prime minister said, adding, "Now it has been transformed and industrialized."

It is producing electricity which is being transmitted all across Pakistan, bringing prosperity into the entire country, he said.

"This great project would provide a lot of boost to Pakistan's economy in the years to come," Sharif added.

On the occasion, Pang Chunxue, charge d'affaires of the Chinese embassy in Pakistan, said that Thar Coal Block-I would help Pakistan in reducing fuel imports, saving foreign exchange reserves, optimizing power supply structure and enhancing energy security.

"It has provided more than 18,000 direct employment opportunities for the locals, with a cumulative tax payment of 120 million U.S. dollars and corporate social responsibility expenditure of over 1.3 million dollars," said Pang.

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