Pakistan Agriculture: Record Harvests Forecast After Heavy Monsoon Rains

In the first few months of 2022,  Pakistan has exported more rice to China than Vietnam, the historic top supplier, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).  Pakistan's total rice exports are forecast to jump by 450,000 tons to 4.8 million tons, almost 30% higher than the prior year. 

Women Farmers Planting Rice in Pakistan. Source: Reuters

 

Pakistan experienced broad-based economic growth across all key sectors in FY 21-22; manufacturing posted 9.8% growth, services 6.2% and agriculture 4.4%. The 4.4% growth in agriculture is particularly welcome; it helps reduce rural poverty.  The country is expected to have yet another record year for agriculture in 2022-23 after heavy monsoon rains. Rice is an important food crop in Pakistan  but wheat is the principal grain consumed domestically. Unfortunately, the same hot and dry planting conditions that delayed planting of the 2022 rice crop in Punjab and Sindh provinces have adversely affected Pakistan’s wheat production. This has forced the government to import wheat at a time of high prices amid the war in Ukraine, a major wheat exporter. 

A Cotton Field in Pakistan

 

The recent monsoon rains will help to kick-start the sowing of major Kharif (autumn) crops including rice, cotton, sugarcane and corn after about a month's delay.  “There was 40% less water available for the Kharif season (during May-June 2022),” an official of the Ministry of National Food Security and Research said while talking to The Express Tribune on Saturday. Earlier in March this year, Pakistan's Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) had said “for the Kharif year 2022, the water availability in canals head will be 65.84 million acre feet (MAF) against last year’s 65.08 MAF”. Recent rains have helped fill up major water reservoirs across the country.  About 150,000 cubic feet per second of water is being released from Pakistan's largest Tarbela dam which is more than the combined irrigation needs of the two provinces.  It is also generating over 3,000 MW of electricity, according to media reports

Heavy 2022 Monsoon Rainfall. Source: Pakistan Met Office 

“Cotton production is expected to improve to 9.5-10 million bales (one bale weighs 170 kg) in the wake of ongoing rainfall in cotton belts in Punjab and Sindh,” said Pakistan Central Cotton Committee Vice President Dr Muhammad Ali Talpur. “Cotton production will remain high, as farmers have improved crop management in the backdrop of higher prices in the domestic (and international) market.”

Drought Map of Pakistan. Source: Relief Web

Pakistan's agriculture output is the 10th largest in the world. The country produces large and growing quantities of cereals, meat, milk, fruits and vegetables. Currently, Pakistan produces about 38 million tons of cereals (mainly wheat, rice and corn), 17 million tons of fruits and vegetables, 70 million tons of sugarcane, 60 million tons of milk and 4.5 million tons of meat.  Total value of the nation's agricultural output exceeds $50 billion.  Improving agriculture inputs and modernizing value chains can help the farm sector become much more productive to serve both domestic and export markets.  

Pakistan's Thar Desert After Monsoon 2022. Source: Emmanuel Guddu 

Pakistanis are eating more and healthier foods, according to the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2021-22. Per capita average daily calorie intake in Pakistan has jumped to 2,735 calories in FY 2021-22 from 2,457 calories in 2019-20. The biggest contributor to it is the per capita consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables which soared from 53.6 Kg to 68.3 Kg, less than half of the 144 Kg (400 grams/day) recommended by the World Health Organization. Healthy food helps cut disease burdens and reduces demand on the healthcare system. Under former Prime Minister Imran Khan's leadership, Pakistan succeeded in achieving these nutritional improvements in spite of surging global food prices amid the Covid19 pandemic

Investments in modernization of the agriculture production process and farm-to-market value chain will require major reforms to ensure growers get a bigger share of the value. The extraordinary power of the middlemen (arthis) as financiers needs to be regulated. This can not happen without legislation in close consultation with the growers. Improving agriculture inputs and modernizing value chains can help raise the productivity of the farm sector for it to serve both domestic and export markets better.  

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Comment by Riaz Haq on November 13, 2022 at 7:03pm

Pakistan: 2022 Monsoon Floods - Situation Report No. 11 (As of 11 November 2022)


https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/pakistan-2022-monsoon-floods-...


Cases of water and vector-borne diseases and acute respiratory illnesses, especially among children and older adults, remain a key public health challenge in flood-affected areas of Sindh and Balochistan. As of 8 November, according to World Health Organization (WHO), around 8 million flood-affected people need health assistance, including the provision of essential medical supplies and access to essential health care. As the displaced people return to their places of origin, they face an increased risk of disease transmission driven by damaged infrastructure, stagnant water, and inadequate sanitation facilities. Since the beginning of the year, around 1,000 confirmed cholera cases and 64,767 dengue fever cases, with 147 deaths, have been reported. Furthermore, according to United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), as of 10 November, more than 5.1 million women are of reproductive age (15-49 years), including an estimated 410,846 women who are currently pregnant, with approximately 136,950 births expected in the next three months. For these women, there is a need to strengthen health systems, train health workers, educate midwives and improve access to the full range of reproductive health services.

Water, sanitation and hygiene face heightened challenges due to the destruction of water infrastructure and low availability of clean water for bathing, cooking and drinking, with families resorting to contaminated water for daily use. Even before the floods, according to the World Bank, the country faced high water shortage risks for non-agricultural purposes. Under a high-growth (4.9 per cent per year) and high-warming (3°C by 2047) scenario, water demand is projected to increase by almost 60 per cent, with the highest rates of the increase coming from the domestic and industrial sectors. Climate warming will account for up to 15 per cent of this increase in demand. Moreover, climate-related shocks like the current floods will continue to put additional strain on access to safe water for communities.

As of 11 November, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has recorded 1,739 deaths and 12,867 injuries since mid-June. In addition, more than 2.2 million houses have been damaged or destroyed, 13,115 kilometres of roads damaged, 439 bridges destroyed, and over 1.1 million livestock lost. Furthermore, as the winter season in many of the affected areas is approaching fast, the vulnerabilities of the flood-affected people are further heightened with the immediate need for shelter, food items and non-food items.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 1, 2023 at 8:56am

The wheat production (in Pakistan) this year topped 27.5 million metric tons, the highest in the last 10 years, despite the challenges posed by heavy rains and floods last year, the Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement on Sunday.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2414418/pm-hails-bumper-wheat-crop

Chairing a review meeting on the wheat situation, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif directed the relevant federal government institutions as well as the provinces to increase their procurement quotas in the wake of a bumper crop.

According to the Prime Minister’s Office, the meeting received a briefing on the wheat production, current reserves, carry-forward reserves, procurement targets, and progress of federal and provincial departments.

Shehbaz applauded the record wheat production, saying that this achievement made possible by the grace of Allah, quality seeds, uninterrupted supply of fertiliser, and the timely decisions of the government and its Farmers Package.

“The bumper crop of wheat is a testament to the government’s timely decisions and excellent governance,” he said. “Looking forward, the government is preparing a strategy to increase wheat production even further next year,” he added.

“With the government’s continued efforts and the dedication of farmers, Pakistan aims to maintain its position as a leading wheat producer,” he said, congratulating the farmers for their hard work and dedication to achieve the milestone despite financial difficulties.

He noted that Pakistan became a wheat importing country due to the mismanagement of the previous Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government. The PTI government, he added, made farmers to stand in long queues for fertilisers.

He urged the federal and provincial institutions to increase procurement targets to enable uninterrupted supply of wheat throughout the year. He also instructed that the resources required to obtain the specified quantity of wheat should be provided through banks.

He congratulated Food Security Minister Tariq Bashir Cheema and the officials concerned, and directed all institutions to increase their targets. The meeting was also attended by the caretaker Punjab minister for industries, and other senior officials.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 4, 2023 at 4:16pm

GLOBALink | China donates hybrid rice seeds to flood-hit Pakistani province

https://english.news.cn/20230602/f06447ac48fd42b4821a839d5a1323db/c...


Hybrid rice seed donation from China will play a major role in rebuilding the agriculture sector of Pakistan's southwest Balochistan province, which was badly affected by devastating floods last year, a Pakistani official said on Tuesday.

Addressing the seed donation ceremony, Balochistan's legislative assembly speaker Jan Muhammad Jamali said that the government and people of China extended great help to Pakistan in rehabilitation work after the flood, and through the seed donation, it will help the people who lost all their fortune in the calamity.

Jamali said 85 percent to 90 percent of Balochistan was affected by the floods last year, and the donated seeds will revive rice plantations in the province, where rice is a major crop.

Highlighting the friendship between the two countries, Bao Zhong, counselor of political affairs of the Chinese Embassy in Pakistan, said China-Pakistan friendship is deeply embedded in the hearts of the two peoples.

She said China is willing to encourage enterprises of the two countries to carry out agricultural cooperation under the framework of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

China is ready to share its advanced agricultural development technology and experience with Pakistan to help lift its agricultural development level, the Chinese counselor said.

"China will as always help Pakistan improve the livelihood of the people of Balochistan province, promote exchanges between sister provinces and cities, and encourage the development of local industries to benefit the local people," she added.

Zhou Xusheng, director of the international business department of Wuhan Qingfa Hesheng Seed Co. Ltd, which is the donor, said the Chinese company is willing to continue to provide training on hybrid rice cultivation techniques to Pakistani farmers to help increase agricultural output and their income.

Launched in 2013, CPEC is a corridor linking Pakistan's Gwadar Port with Kashgar in northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, which highlights energy, transport, and industrial cooperation.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 16, 2023 at 6:49pm

USDA: Global #cotton production forecast to hit 4-year high in FY24. It’s driven mainly by major cotton-producing countries, with #US & #Pakistan leading the charge, each adding 2 million bales to global yield. #India also contributing. #textiles
https://www.fibre2fashion.com/news/cotton-news/global-cotton-produc...


World cotton production is projected to reach a four-year high of 116.7 million bales in 2023-24 (FY24), according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The expected growth in production represents a slight increase of 400,000 bales from the previous year.
The increase is predominantly driven by the major cotton-producing countries, with the US and Pakistan leading the charge. Both countries are projected to see a significant rise in production, each adding 2 million bales to the global yield. India is also expected to contribute to the surge, albeit on a lesser scale, with an additional half a million bales.

However, these gains will be partially offset by a reduction in output from China, the world's leading cotton producer. The Chinese crop is anticipated to shrink by 3.7 million bales in the 2023-24 season due to cooler than normal temperatures early in the growing season in China's Xinjiang region, which could limit yield potential. This decrease means China's contribution to global cotton production is expected to shrink from 26 per cent in 2022-23 to 23 per cent in 2023-24, as per USDA’s Cotton and Wool Outlook: June 2023 report.

Meanwhile, India is set to buck this trend with a projected 2-per cent increase in cotton production from the 2022-23 crop. This rise comes despite an expected reduction in harvested area, with alternative crops predicted to reduce cotton acreage to 12.4 million hectares. A rebound in yield is set to offset this, with the national yield forecast at 448 kg per hectare, the highest in three years. India's share in global cotton production is set to remain steady at approximately 22 per cent.

Outside of the US, other countries including Brazil, Pakistan, and Australia are also projected to see an increase in cotton production. Brazil's output is expected to hit 13.25 million bales, slightly above the 2022-23 figure and second only to 2019-20's record of nearly 13.8 million bales.

Pakistan's cotton production is set to rebound from the nearly four-decade low of 3.9 million bales recorded in 2022-23 due to flood damage. The forecast production of 5.9 million bales for 2023-24 will account for 5 per cent of global production.

Lastly, Australia's 2023-24 cotton production is projected at 5.8 million bales, 300,000 bales above 2022-23 and close to 2021-22’s record of 5.85 million bales, supported by above-average reservoir levels.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 16, 2023 at 6:52pm

Amid Food Insecurity, Pakistan Reports Record-Breaking Wheat Harvest


https://www.rferl.org/a/pakistan-food-insecurity-record-breaking-wh...

With ongoing disruption to global supplies caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, there is some good news on commodities markets: Pakistan, one of the world's top 10 wheat-producing countries, has reported a record-breaking harvest.

1
A Pakistani farmer carries bundles of wheat during the harvest season at a village on the outskirts of Peshawar, Pakistan, on May 4.

Pakistan's highest wheat production in a decade is a welcome respite for its cash-strapped government struggling through economic, political, and food insecurity.

2
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif took to social media on April 30 to announce that the country had attained a “record bumper” harvest of wheat totaling 27.5 million metric tons.

3
The announcement came as Pakistan has been dealing with record inflation and struggling to avoid a default on its debt as it recovers from last summer's floods, which killed 1,379 people and caused $30 billion in damages.

4
On global markets, the prices of grains, vegetable oil, dairy, and other agricultural commodities have fallen steadily from record highs. But often the relief hasn’t trickled down to the real world of shopkeepers, street vendors, and families trying to make ends meet.

5
Food prices were already running high when Russia invaded Ukraine in February last year, disrupting trade in grain and fertilizer and sending prices up even more. But on a global scale, that price shock ended long ago.

6
According to the UN, food prices have decreased for a full year straight due to bumper crops in countries like Brazil and Russia, and a fragile wartime arrangement to allow grain supplies out of the Black Sea.

7
Food markets are so interconnected that “wherever you are in the world, you feel the effect if global prices go up," said Ian Mitchell, an economist and London-based co-director of the Europe program at the Center for Global Development.

8
Pakistani farmers sort wheat grains after they have been threshed during the harvest season at a village on the outskirts of Peshawar.

The Wilson Center, a nonpartisan research institute, reported on March 6 that 77 million Pakistanis are going hungry and 45 million are malnourished.

9
Though Pakistan is ranked among the top 10 wheat-producing countries, inflation has destroyed the purchasing power of the rupee, resulting in record prices for vegetables, beans, rice, and wheat.

10
The Central Bank of Pakistan raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 21 percent on April 4, pushing borrowing costs to their highest level since records began in 1992. Consumer price inflation in Pakistan accelerated to a record 35.37 percent in March from a year earlier, eclipsing February's 31.5 percent, the statistics bureau said on April 1.

11
A worker distributes free traditional roti or bread among needy people at a restaurant in Peshawar on April 16.

According to the Global Hunger Index 2021, Pakistan ranks 92nd out of 107 countries, indicating a "serious" level of hunger. The government of Pakistan has launched several initiatives to address food insecurity; however, it remains a significant challenge.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 16, 2023 at 7:04pm

Rice exports from Pakistan to Russia will escalate

https://www.nation.com.pk/17-Jun-2023/rice-exports-from-pakistan-to...

In a major breakthrough, fifteen more rice establishments got approved for exporting rice to Russia. Under the leadership of Federal Minister NFSR Tariq Bashir Cheema and Zafar Hassan, Secretary MNFSR, DPP succeeded to get approved 15 more rice establishments for exporting rice to Russia.

Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance of Russia confirms Department of Plant Protection (DPP) Ministry of National Food Security and Research Pakistan that 15 more rice mills which were recommended after technical audit by DPP, can now export rice to Russia. This marks a huge success towards boosting exports and overall economy of the state.

Russia had put a ban on rice exports few years back because of pest interception in rice. However it was lifted in 2021 and only 4 rice mills, which complied their quality standards, were allowed to export rice from Pakistan to Russia. Department of Plant Protection with the support of Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP) took special steps to upgrade 15 more mills as per the Guidance Document prescribed by the Russian Federation for compliance with the SPS requirements for rice exports. Now, 19 rice enterprises from Pakistan can export rice to Russian Federation. This is a huge achievement of Pakistan government where Department of Plant Protection under the MNFSR in close collaboration of Ministry Of Commerce became able to pitch increase rice exports to Russian Federation. This brings a good news especially to the rice farmers of Punjab and Sindh, as they will be the beneficiaries for this.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 16, 2023 at 7:05pm

Sugar price hike has nothing to do with exports, says PSMA

https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2023/05/01/sugar-price-hike-has...

Then the price of sugar was in the range of Rs 80-85 per kilogram, while the cost of production of sugar ranged between Rs 105-110 per kilogram. Pakistan then had a surplus sugar stock of 1.2 million metric tons. The sugar industry had asked the government to allow export of at least 1.0 million tons of surplus sugar out of the 1.2 million tons surplus. However, the government inordinately delayed the decision.

The association also added in their statement that timely exports would have given the correct signal to the farmer to plant more sugarcane or improve the yield of their crop by timely inputs. In December 2022, the government finally gave permission to export 250,000 metric tons of sugar. After fulfilling all governmental prerequisites, the sugar industry has exported 172,180 metric tons of sugar till March 2023 earning approximately USD 85 million.

According to the PSMA, the continually increasing international sugar price meant that sugar domestically in Pakistan is priced at half of prices across our border in Afghanistan. PSMA through its spokesman had continually stressed the need to Control our porous borders to Afghanistan or otherwise the huge arbitrage would make it lucrative to smuggle this commodity, as well, along with what has been seen happening in urea and wheat previously.

PSMA had time and again sensitised the government that the smugglers mafia would take advantage of higher sugar prices in the international market and smuggle sugar out of the country. If the government had given due consideration to the apprehensions and demands of the sugar industry then its earnings of foreign exchange would have been added to the national exchequer instead of landing into the pockets of smugglers mafia. Sadly, the industry couldn’t export the surplus and the country couldn’t benefit from this due to the huge smuggling.

It is also important to address the rising cost of sugar production in Pakistan. In the last crushing season, the government had increased the minimum support price of sugarcane from Rs 225 per 40-kg to Rs 300 per 40-kg (a 33 percent increase), resulting in jacking up the cost of production of sugar to Rs 130 per kilogram. While sugarcane is a major cost component, there are other key elements, as well. An increase in Sales Tax from 17 percent to 18 percent means that with any increase in the price of sugar the federal government gets 18 percent benefit.

They also added that the doubling in the mark-up rates of banks from 12 percent to 24 percent has been a major reason for cost increase, since sugarcane payments are made in three to four months while sugar is sold all year around due to its monthly distribution. Other factors that contribute to the issues include raising of minimum labour wages from Rs 16,000 to Rs 25,000, increase in the prices of different chemicals and spare parts of the machinery of around 70-80 percent as they are imported and the exorbitant rise in the oil prices leading to higher transport costs for sugarcane. All these elements are factors in the increase of cost of production of sugar up to Rs 130 per kilogram.

“Despite all the challenges faced by the sugar industry the price of sugar has increased much less in comparison to food inflation in the country which has gone up by 47 percent in the last one year. It might also be reiterated that the sugar industry of Pakistan set up several discounted sugar stalls much below its cost of production in different cities of the country during the holy month of Ramadan. This step of the sugar industry was also acknowledged by government circles. If the government would have timely allowed export of one million tons of sugar it would have ultimately given a positive message to the farmer who would have timely increased plantation and invested more in their fields to increase yield,” PSMA stated.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 31, 2023 at 8:03am

The rise in global cotton production is led by the US, Pakistan, and India, with a drop in China's output due to cooler weather conditions.

https://www.fibre2fashion.com/news/textile-news/global-cotton-produ...

Global cotton production in FY24 is forecast to reach a four-year high of 116.7 million bales, up slightly from the previous year, as per USDA.
The rise is led by the US, Pakistan, and India, with a drop in China's output due to cooler weather conditions.
Australia's FY24 cotton production is projected at 5.8 million bales, 300,000 bales above FY23.


World cotton production is projected to reach a four-year high of 116.7 million bales in 2023-24 (FY24), according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The expected growth in production represents a slight increase of 400,000 bales from the previous year.
The increase is predominantly driven by the major cotton-producing countries, with the US and Pakistan leading the charge. Both countries are projected to see a significant rise in production, each adding 2 million bales to the global yield. India is also expected to contribute to the surge, albeit on a lesser scale, with an additional half a million bales.

However, these gains will be partially offset by a reduction in output from China, the world's leading cotton producer. The Chinese crop is anticipated to shrink by 3.7 million bales in the 2023-24 season due to cooler than normal temperatures early in the growing season in China's Xinjiang region, which could limit yield potential. This decrease means China's contribution to global cotton production is expected to shrink from 26 per cent in 2022-23 to 23 per cent in 2023-24, as per USDA’s Cotton and Wool Outlook: June 2023 report.

Meanwhile, India is set to buck this trend with a projected 2-per cent increase in cotton production from the 2022-23 crop. This rise comes despite an expected reduction in harvested area, with alternative crops predicted to reduce cotton acreage to 12.4 million hectares. A rebound in yield is set to offset this, with the national yield forecast at 448 kg per hectare, the highest in three years. India's share in global cotton production is set to remain steady at approximately 22 per cent.

Outside of the US, other countries including Brazil, Pakistan, and Australia are also projected to see an increase in cotton production. Brazil's output is expected to hit 13.25 million bales, slightly above the 2022-23 figure and second only to 2019-20's record of nearly 13.8 million bales.

Pakistan's cotton production is set to rebound from the nearly four-decade low of 3.9 million bales recorded in 2022-23 due to flood damage. The forecast production of 5.9 million bales for 2023-24 will account for 5 per cent of global production.

Lastly, Australia's 2023-24 cotton production is projected at 5.8 million bales, 300,000 bales above 2022-23 and close to 2021-22’s record of 5.85 million bales, supported by above-average reservoir levels.

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 5, 2023 at 5:38pm

Pakistan aims to export 5 million tonnes of rice amid India ban

https://www.geo.tv/latest/502787-pakistan-aims-to-export-5-million-...


The REAP chief was optimistic about Pakistan achieving its goal of 5 million tonnes of rice worth $3 billion in the current fiscal year, which began in July.

---------------

"Pakistan expected a bumper rice crop this year," REAP chief says.
Country exported 3.7m tonnes rice valued at $2.14b last fiscal year.
This year, Kewlani says, Pakistan can export 5m tonnes of rice.

KARACHI: Pakistan's rice exports are projected to rise in the current fiscal year due to the Indian ban on rice exports and the exploration of new markets in Russia and Mexico, the Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP) said, according to The News.

REAP Chairman Chela Ram Kewlani said Pakistan exported 3.7 million tonnes of rice valued at $2.14 billion in the previous fiscal year, despite facing various challenges.

"Despite devastating floods, crop shortage and many other challenges, we exported 3.7 million tonnes amounting to $2.14 billion," he said.

The REAP chief was optimistic about Pakistan achieving its goal of 5 million tonnes of rice worth $3 billion in the current fiscal year, which began in July.

"India's ban on rice exports will have significant impacts on global rice trade dynamics. This will give a good opportunity for Pakistan to fill the supply gap and expand its market share in major rice-buying countries."

India, the world's biggest rice exporter, banned exports of non-basmati rice last month to ensure domestic supplies amid rising food inflation. Kewlani said Pakistan could benefit from higher export volumes and increased revenues as a result of the ban.

"Overall, the ban may create a favorable trade environment for Pakistan's rice exports." Industry officials said Pakistan's basmati rice prices soared to $500 per tonnes in the international market, up almost $100 from a month ago, as demand surged after the export ban by India.

Pakistani rice is enjoying a premium for its superior quality and could rise further to $600 per tonnes in the coming months, one trader said. "Pakistan has a golden opportunity to boost its rice exports and earn valuable foreign exchange as India has banned its rice exports due to drought." he said.

Pakistan is the world's fourth-largest rice exporter after India, Thailand, and Vietnam. Kewlani said Pakistani non-basmati rice, which was selling at $450 per tonnes before the ban, had also jumped to $500 per tonnes as buyers shifted to alternative sources.

He also said that Russia had registered 15 more Pakistani companies to export rice to the country and 12 more were in the process of registration. "This opportunity will also be beneficial for generation of extra foreign exchange for our country, as Russia is a big and potential market for Pakistani rice."

Kewlani added that a recent visit by Mexican technical experts had gone well and they were satisfied with the compliance of standard operating procedures by Pakistani rice exporters. He hoped that Mexico would soon lift a ban on Pakistani rice and resume imports.

He said Pakistan expected a bumper rice crop this year, with an annual output of around 9 million tonnes. "We hope that we can easily achieve our target of 5 million tonnes worth $3 billion this year."

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 5, 2023 at 7:48pm

In Pakistan, flood damage meant 2022/23 cane sugar production reduced to 7.2 mln tonnes compared to 8.6 mln tonnes in 21/22. The area under cane remains consistent with last season, but reduced fertilisers prices could push 23/24 sugar production to 7.8 mln tonnes.


https://www.ragus.co.uk/global-sugar-market-report-may-2023/#:~:tex....

Unpredictable rains in India and Pakistan squeeze cane production
Estimates for India’s sugar production from the 2022/23 cane crop are below the decreased figure we estimated last October. The 35.6 mln tonnes we expect is much lower than the 39 mln tonnes produced in 21/22. Any further exports onto the global market this season seem unlikely, despite India having an export quota of 6 mln tonnes for the world market.

Despite an increased area under cane, low rainfall during the growing season and too much rain just before the harvest began resulted in lower cane yields. For the 2023/24 crop, the area under cane has increased again. If the monsoon rainfall is average, we expect India to produce 36.4 mln tonnes of sugar. However, that figure only holds if there are no major increases in cane juice or molasses diverted into ethanol production. In 22/23 the equivalent of 4.5 mln tonnes of sugar was used for ethanol production. In 23/24, we expect that figure to be 3.78 mln tonnes.

If an El Niño weather pattern develops, dry conditions would affect cane planting for the 24/25 crop. In neighbouring Pakistan, flood damage meant 2022/23 cane sugar production reduced to 7.2 mln tonnes compared to 8.6 mln tonnes in 21/22. The area under cane remains consistent with last season, but reduced fertilisers prices could push 23/24 sugar production to 7.8 mln tonnes.

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