Nearly 700,000 Pakistani Workers Have Migrated Overseas So Far in Year 2022

Nearly 700,000 Pakistanis have left to work overseas in the first 10 months of the current calendar year, according to Pakistan's Bureau of Emigration Overseas Employment (BEOE). The worker migration from Pakistan had dipped to 225,000 in 2020 and 280,000 in 2021 due to Covid restrictions around the world. The yearly average for the last decade was over half a million Pakistanis migrating to other countries for work.  In August this year, the State Bank of Pakistan said in its "Half Year Report 2021-22" that “(t)he monthly flow of Pakistani workers (overseas) has reverted to pre-Covid levels (of 65,000 per month).” The data from International Organization for Migration (IOM) shows that a lot more of the Pakistan migrants are now skilled labor while the share of unskilled migrants is declining: "Pakistani migrant workers were skilled (42%) and involved in semi-skilled jobs such as welders, secretaries, masons, carpenters, plumbers and so on. Another proportion of the labour migration was composed of unskilled laborers (39%) such as agriculturists, laborers or farmers. Projections about future trends indicate that the number of Pakistani labour migrants will continue rising to reach 15.5 million in 2020 (Government of Pakistan, 2018". Larger and increasingly higher skilled diaspora is expected to sustain double-digit annual growth in overseas worker remittances to Pakistan. 

Pakistani Workers Going Overseas. Source: Bureau of Emigration

 

Demographic Dividend: 

With rapidly aging populations and declining number of working age people in North America, Europe and East Asia, the demand for workers will increasingly be met by major labor exporting nations like Bangladesh, China, India, Mexico, Pakistan, Russia and Vietnam. Among these nations, Pakistan is the only major labor exporting country where the working age population is still rising faster than the birth rate. 

Over 10 million Pakistanis are currently working/living overseas, according to the Bureau of Emigration. Before the COVID19 pandemic hit in 2020,  more than 600,000 Pakistanis left the country to work overseas in 2019. Nearly 700,000 Pakistanis have already migrated in this calendar year as of October, 2022. The average yearly outflow of Pakistani workers to OECD countries (mainly UK and US) and the Middle East was over half a million in the last decade. 

Consumer Markets in 2030. Source: WEF

World's 7th Largest Consumer Market:

Pakistan's share of the working age population (15-64 years) is growing as the country's birth rate declines, a phenomenon called demographic dividend. With its rising population of this working age group, Pakistan is projected by the World Economic Forum to become the world's 7th largest consumer market by 2030. Nearly 60 million Pakistanis will join the consumer class (consumers spending more than $11 per day) to raise the country's consumer market rank from 15 to 7  by 2030. WEF forecasts the world's top 10 consumer markets of 2030 to be as follows: China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, Pakistan, Japan, Egypt and Mexico.  Global investors chasing bigger returns will almost certainly shift more of their attention and money to the biggest movers among the top 10 consumer markets, including Pakistan.  Already, the year 2021 has been a banner year for investments in Pakistani technology startups

Record Remittances From Overseas Pakistanis:
 
Pakistan is already seeing high levels of labor export and record remittances of over $30 billion pouring into the country. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates(UAE) are the top two sources of remittances but the biggest increase (58%) in remittances is seen this year from Pakistanis in the next two sources: the United Kingdom and the United States.
 
Remittances from the European Union (EU) to Pakistan soared 49.7% in FY 21 and 28.3% in FY22, according to the State Bank of Pakistan. With $2.5 billion remittances in the first 9 months (July-March) of the current fiscal year, the EU ($2.5 billion) has now surpassed North America ($2.2 billion) to become the third largest source of inflows to Pakistan after the Middle East and the United Kingdom. Remittances from the US have grown 21%, second fastest after the EU (28.3%) in the first 9  months of the current fiscal year. 
 
Pakistan ranks 6th among the top worker remittance recipient countries in the world.  India and China rank first and second, followed by Mexico 3rd, the Philippines 4th, Egypt 5th and Pakistan 6th.  
 
Pakistan Demographics
About two million Pakistanis are entering the workforce every year. The share of the working age population in Pakistan is increasing while the birth rate is declining. This phenomenon, known as demographic dividend, is coinciding with declines in working age populations in developed countries. It is creating an opportunity for over half a million Pakistani workers to migrate and work overseas, and send home record remittances. 

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Comment by Riaz Haq on November 24, 2022 at 8:36pm

Pakistani migrants in Europe

According to the 2020 International Migrant Stock compiled by UNDESA4, a total of 952,993 Pakistani nationals resided in Europe in 2020. Fifty-eight per cent of them were male and forty-two percent were female. The number of Pakistani nationals in each European country in 2020 is shown in Annex 1, together with gender-disaggregated numbers. UNDESA estimates the number and composition of migrants on the basis of data obtained from population censuses, population registers and national surveys. The dataset provides estimates of the international migrant stock by age, sex and origin for the mid-point (1 July) of each year: 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020.

https://migration.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl1461/files/reports/PA...

European Countries Total Migrants Male Female

Denmark 14,318 7,503 6,815
Estonia 261 195 66
Finland 3,134 2,090 1,044
Iceland 94 69 25
Ireland 10,570 6,667 3,903
Latvia 228 204 24
Lithuania 7 3 4
Norway 21,140 10,853 10,287
Sweden 16,597 9,891 6,706
United Kingdom 537,047 282,645 254,402

Greece 8,823 4,435 4,388
Italy 124,800 89,557 35,243
Malta 549 300 249
Portugal 2,217 1,469 748
Slovenia 42 31 11
Spain 63,819 41,074 22,745

Austria 6,097 4,076 2,021
Belgium 13,246 8,143 5,103
France 27,203 16,341 10,862
Germany 79,227 53,993 25,234
Liechtenstein 7 5 2
Luxembourg 279 169 110
Switzerland 5,381 3,304 2,077
The Netherlands 14,104 8,030 6,074

Bulgaria 290 182 108
Hungary 1,055 780 275
Poland 278 257 21
Romania 625 438 187
Russia 726 579 147
Slovakia 122 110 12
The Czech Republic 662 501 161

Comment by Riaz Haq on November 28, 2022 at 6:55pm

What was Pakistan's Private Consumption Expenditure in 2022?
Pakistan Private Consumption Expenditure was reported at 324.824 USD bn in Dec 2022. This records an increase from the previous number of 290.625 USD bn for Dec 2021. See the table below for more data.

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/pakistan/private-consumption-...

Pakistan Private Consumption Expenditure was reported at 324.824 USD bn in Dec 2022. This records an increase from the previous number of 290.625 USD bn for Dec 2021.
Pakistan Private Consumption Expenditure data is updated yearly, averaging 31.179 USD bn from Dec 1960 to 2022, with 63 observations.
The data reached an all-time high of 324.824 USD bn in 2022 and a record low of 3.084 USD bn in 1960.
Pakistan Private Consumption Expenditure data remains in an active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data.
The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s Global Economic Monitor – Table: Nominal GDP: Private Consumption Expenditure: USD: Annual: Asia.

CEIC shifts year-end for annual Private Consumption Expenditure and converts it into USD. Private Consumption Expenditure is calculated as the sum of Household and NPISHs consumption. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics provides Private Consumption Expenditure in local currency based on SNA 2008 with benchmark year 2015-2016. The State Bank of Pakistan average market exchange rate is used for currency conversions. Private Consumption Expenditure is reported in annual frequency, ending in June of each year. Private Consumption Expenditure prior to 2016 is based on SNA 2008 with benchmark year 2005-2006. Private Consumption Expenditure prior to 2000 is sourced from the World Bank.

Comment by Riaz Haq on November 30, 2022 at 8:16am

World-Topping $100 Billion in Remittances Head to India in 2022
Funds from world’s largest diaspora a key source of cash
Migrants living in wealthy nations boost inflows to the nation


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-30/world-topping-10...

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Pakistan, Bangladesh Remittances Drop As Illegal Flows Rise
Flows at an eight-month low in Bangladesh and Pakistan
Higher currency rates on the gray market explain the decline

Remittances to two of South Asia’s largest countries dropped to their lowest level in eight months, with migrant workers finding it more profitable to send money through illegal non-banking channels.

Pakistan’s remittances fell to $2.2 billion and Bangladesh’s to $1.5 billion in October, according to central bank data. Currency rates on the gray market, also known as hawala, are higher than official exchange rates for both countries.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-30/south-asia-remit...

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 1, 2022 at 1:15pm

The report said, as always, India will be at the top of expatriate income. A record 100 billion US dollar remittance will come to that country this year. Next on the list are- Mexico ($60 billion), China ($51 billion), Philippines ($38 billion), Egypt ($32 billion) and Pakistan ($29 billion).

The Brief said remittances to South Asia grew an estimated 3.5 percent to $163 billion in 2022, but there is large disparity across countries, from India's projected 12 percent gain-which is on track to reach $100 billion in receipts for the year--to Nepal's 4 percent increase, to an aggregate decline of 10 percent for the region's remaining countries.

The report showed that the remittance flow in Bangladesh was downward in the last 8 months.

https://www.risingbd.com/english/national/news/91569

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World Bank Expects Pakistan’s Remittances to Decline by Over 7%

https://propakistani.pk/2022/12/01/world-bank-expects-pakistans-rem...

Remittances in Pakistan are expected to drop by 7.4 percent to $29 billion in 2022 from $31 billion in 2021, says the World Bank.

The Bank in its latest report “Remittances Brave Global Headwinds Special Focus: Climate Migration”, noted that while remittances exceeded pre-pandemic levels they fell compared to 2021, exacerbating a balance of payments crisis.

-----------

Remittances to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) withstood global headwinds in 2022, growing an estimated 5% to $626 billion. This is sharply lower than the 10.2% increase in 2021, according to the latest World Bank Migration and Development Brief.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/11/30/remittan...

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 5, 2022 at 11:12am

Pakistan ranks 16th in terms of international students studying in the United States.

There are 8,772 Pakistanis studying in the United States in 2021/22, up 17% from the prior year when COVID restrictions reduced international travel.


https://opendoorsdata.org/?s=pakistan

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There has been a 17 percent year-on-year increase in the number of Pakistani students in the United States during 2021-22, says an official US report.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1723571

The report, released in Washington this week, notes that the United States remains the top destination for international students and the number of students from Bangladesh, Nepal, India, and Pakistan is on the rise!

In South Asia, Bangladesh topped the list with a 23 per cent year-over-year increase, followed by India with a 19pc increase.

Pakistan also has the largest US-funded Fulbright programme in the world, which sends 150 Pakistanis each year to US universities — 100 to earn their master’s degrees and 50 to earn PhDs.

The United States also sponsors 800 Pakistanis each year to travel on exchange programs — from high school students who spend a year at a US high school to professionals who connect with their American counterparts. As a result, Pakistan is home to the largest network of alumni of US government-funded exchange programmes in the world.

The “Open Doors Report on International Educational Exchange,” published this week, identified China and India as the largest sources of international students to the United States. During the current academic year, China sent 290,086 students, which is 30.6pc of the total number of international students in the US. Yet, it is a decline of 8.6pc, compared to the previous academic year. India, which sent 199,183 students this year — 21 percent of the total — registered a 19pc year-over-year increase. Toge­ther, China and India represent the majority (almost 52pc) of all international students in the United States.

This year’s report shows a 91pc decline in the total number of US students who studied abroad during the 2020-2021 academic year. This is apparently because since the Covid-19 pandemic, 62pc of US colleges offer virtual internships.

While the pandemic also caused a 45.6pc decline in new international students in 2020, the latest data, covering the 2021-2022 academic year, indicates that the total number of international students in the US — 948,519 — has started to recover.

This can be seen in a 3.8pc increase over the 914,095 international students in the US in 2020. Still, the number is well below the nearly 1.1 million international students reported in 2018.

Much of the recent growth is driven by an increase in the number of new international students — 261,961 – which is up 80pc over the 145,528 from 2020 but still 2.14pc below the 267,712 from 2019. Over the past decade, US colleges enrolled more students from China than from any other country. The onset of the global pandemic effectively halted travel between China and the US and political tensions further exacerbated the situation. Now, many Chinese parents feel their children are safe in the US.

The increase in Indian students is also attributed to the Biden administration’s policy of prioritising the student-visa processing in India. This includes adding more staff at US missions in India and streamlining the process, Chinese visa approvals are trending lower than in past years.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 7, 2022 at 8:14am

Here’s Goldman Sachs' Take on World Economy Through 2075

Goldman Sachs analysts said slower population growth will present “a number of economic challenges,” such as how nations will pay for rising health costs of their aging populations.

https://www.law.com/dailybusinessreview/2022/12/06/heres-goldman-sa...


Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists have taken a stab at predicting the path of the world economy through 2075.

Two decades since they famously outlined long-term growth projections for the so-called BRIC economies, the economists, now led by Jan Hatzius, expanded their projections to encompass 104 countries over the next half-century.

The results:

Global growth will average just under 3% a year over the next decade, down from 3.6% in the decade before the financial crisis, and will be on a gradually declining path afterwards, reflecting a slowing of labor force growth.
Emerging markets will continue to converge with industrial nations as China, the U.S., India, Indonesia and Germany top the league table of largest economies when measured in dollars. Nigeria, Pakistan and Egypt could also be among the biggest.
The U.S. is unlikely to repeat its relative strong performance of the last decade, and the dollar’s exceptional robustness will also unwind over the next 10 years.
While income inequality between countries has fallen, it will continue to rise within them.
Economists Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas saw protectionism and climate change as risks that are “particularly important” both for growth and the convergence of incomes.

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Pakistan projected to be among largest economies in the world by 2075: Goldman Sachs


https://www.dawn.com/news/1725141

A research paper published by Goldman Sachs on Tuesday projected Pakistan to be the sixth largest economy in the world by 2075 given “appropriate policies and institutions” are in place.

Authored by economists Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas and titled ‘The Path to 2075’, the paper projected that the five largest economies by 2075 will be China, India, the US, Indonesia and Nigeria.

Goldman Sachs has been projecting long-term growth of countries for almost two decades now, initially starting out with BRICs economies, but for the past 10 years they have expanded those projections to cover 70 emerging and developed economies.

Their latest paper covers 104 countries with projections going as far as 2075.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 7, 2022 at 8:14am

Pakistan projected to be among largest economies in the world by 2075: Goldman Sachs


https://www.dawn.com/news/1725141

Pakistan’s star future status is predicted on the back of its population growth, which along with Egypt and Nigeria, could place it among the largest economies in the world in the next 50 years, according to Goldman Sachs.

By that time, the research projects Pakistan’s Real GDP to have grown to $12.7 trillion and its GDP per capita to $27,100.

These numbers, however, are projected to be less than a third of the size of China, India and the US. India’s Real GDP in 2075 is projected at $52.5 trillion and per capita GDP at $31,300.

Among key risks to their projections, the economists particularly highlight “environmental catastrophe” and “populist nationalism”.

Unless a path to sustainable growth is ensured through a globally coordinated response, climate change could heavily skew these projections, particularly for countries like Pakistan, with geographies that are especially vulnerable.

With populist nationalists coming to power in many countries, the report says it might lead to increased protectionism that could potentially result in the reversal of globalisation, thereby increasing income inequality across countries.

Other key projections
Global growth on a declining path
The paper notes that global growth has slowed from an average of 3.6 per cent per year in the past 10 years to 3.2pc, and the slowdown has been relatively broad-based.

They project global growth will average 2.8pc between 2024 and 2029 and will be on a gradually declining path.

The rise of emerging markets
While global growth is dipping, emerging economies are growing faster than developed markets and will continue to converge with them.

“The weight of global GDP will shift (even) more towards Asia over the next 30 years nations as China, the US, India, Indonesia and Germany top the league table of largest economies when measured in dollars. Nigeria, Pakistan and Egypt could also be among the biggest.”

Declining global population
The decline in global growth will be driven by the decline in population growth, which UN projections imply will fall to close to zero by 2075. The paper says this is a “good problem to have” as it mitigates damages to the environment but could pose economic problems arising from high healthcare costs and an ageing population.

US won’t repeat exceptional growth
The US won’t be able to repeat its strong performance from the last decade, with potential growth remaining “significantly lower” than that of large developing economies.

The US dollar is also projected to lose strength in the next 10 years.

Less global inequality, more local inequality
Emerging markets’ convergence has led to falling income inequality between economies but income inequality within most economies has risen. This poses a major challenge to the future of globalisation.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 7, 2022 at 8:30am

Pakistan Projected to Become World’s 6th Largest Economy by 2075: Goldman Sachs

https://propakistani.pk/2022/12/07/pakistan-projected-to-become-wor...


Pakistan is projected to become the sixth-largest economy in the world by 2075, according to a research paper published by Goldman Sachs.

‘The Path to 2075’ paper authored by economists Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas projects that the five largest economies by 2075 will be China, India, the US, Indonesia, and Nigeria with Pakistan projected to occupy the sixth spot given “appropriate policies and institutions” are in place.


Pakistan’s star future status is predicted on the back of its population growth, which could place it among the largest economies in the world in the next 50 years, according to the paper.

The paper projects that Pakistan’s Real GDP would grow to $12.7 trillion by 2075 with its GDP per capita soaring to $27,100.

The authors have highlighted “environmental catastrophe” and “populist nationalism” as the key risks to their projections.

The paper says that unless a path to sustainable growth is ensured through a globally coordinated response, climate change could heavily skew these projections, particularly for countries like Pakistan.

Moreover, it says that populist nationalists coming to power in many countries might lead to increased protectionism that could potentially result in the reversal of globalization, thereby increasing income inequality across countries.

Other forecasts
Looking out to 2075, the authors caution that world growth, which has already dimmed over the decades, is heading further south.

Much of the slowdown is thanks to a deceleration in population gains. Over the past half-century, the number of people on the plant went from increasing 2 percent a year to less than 1 percent now and is expected to drop to near zero by 2075.


The authors say that the only way to sustain faster economic growth if your population isn’t increasing is to improve productivity. The report highlights that there has been a slowdown in productivity in both emerging markets and developed economies with a weakening in the globalization of trade as a major culprit.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 10, 2022 at 10:16pm
Exodus from #India in #Modi's 'Aachhe Din': Citizenship renouncements soar. Most #Indians give up their citizenship to obtain the nationality of #US. Over 183,000 have already done so till October 31 this year. #BJP #Hindutva
Comment by Riaz Haq on December 13, 2022 at 4:56pm

During the year 2022 (November), 765,172 Pakistanis proceeded abroad for the purpose of employment.

https://beoe.gov.pk/?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=b1b4890b1c9705af3b244646c1...

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