Israel does not trust Iran just as Pakistan does not trust India. While Israel is preparing for eventual nuclear-armed Iran in the future, Pakistan is threatened by India's growing nuclear triad and atomic arsenal today. So what are Israel and Pakistan doing to deter potential nuclear attacks by their regional rivals? They are both building sea-based nuclear second strike capability with diesel-electric submarines equipped with air-independent propulsion (AIP).
Israel's Submarine Fleet:
Israel has just taken delivery of the 5th of 6 Dolphin II class AIP-equipped submarines built by Germany. More than 225 feet long, the diesel-electric Dolphin II class is part attack submarine, part nuclear strike ship and part commando taxi. Each sub has 10 tubes. Four of these tubes are larger 26-inch tubes—the size is rare for a Western-built submarine—capable of launching small commando teams or firing larger nuclear-capable cruise missiles. The remaining six tubes measure at 21 inches, according to Real Clear Defense.
Israel's German-built Dolphin Class AIP Sub
Several German defense ministry officials interviewed by German news magazine Der Spiegel believe that Israel intends for these submarines to carry nuclear weapons. The missiles can also be launched “using a previously secret hydraulic ejection system,” the magazine reported.
Diesel-Electric AIP Vs Nuclear-Powered Subs:
A key requirement for submarines is to be stealthy—and the Dolphin II is indeed very quiet. The trick is in the submarine’s air-independent propulsion fuel cells, which provide power under the surface as the diesel engines—used for running on the surface—rest and recharge.
This system is quieter than the nuclear-powered engines on American and Russian submarines, which must constantly circulate engine coolant. Nuclear submarines are virtually unlimited in terms of range, and are better used for deep-water operations. But Israel has no need for nuclear-powered subs when quiet diesel subs can do the same job, according to Real Clear Defense.
Pakistan's AIP Submarine Fleet:
The details of Pakistan's planned submarine fleet are not clear yet. However, Pakistan too is acquiring a fleet of AIP-equipped diesel-electric submarines.
Pakistan Navy operates a fleet of five diesel-electric submarines and three MG110 miniature submarines (SSI). The nucleus of the fleet includes two Agosta-70 and three modern Agosta-90B submarines. Pakistan's third Agosta-90B, the S 139 Hamza, was constructed indigenously and features the DCNS MESMA (Module d'EnergieSous-Marin Autonome) air-independent propulsion (AIP) system. Pakistan retrofitted the two earlier Agosta-90B vessels with the MESMA AIP propulsion system when they underwent overhaul in 2011, according to Nuclear Threat Initiative.
Model of Chinese-made S20 Sub Ordered by Pakistan
Pakistan is expanding and modernizing its underwater fleet with 8 additional AIP-equipped submarines ordered from China. Whether the Chinese submarines are the S-20 export derivative of the Type-039A/Type-041 Yuan-class submarine, or a bespoke design, is unclear. But the Yuan has also been mentioned, and according to government officials. If the deal transpires, it will be the largest ever Sino-Pakistani deal. Mansoor Ahmed of Quaid-e-Azam University's Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, believes the submarines will each cost $ 250 million to $325 million.
Mansoor Ahmed told Defense News that AIP-equipped conventional submarines "provide reliable second strike platforms, [and] an assured capability resides with [nuclear-powered attack and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines], which are technically very complex and challenging to construct and operate compared to SSKs, and also very capital intensive."
Balance of Terror as Deterrence:
Let's hope that nuclear deterrence works and the world never again sees the use of the growing stockpile of nukes in South Asia, the Middle East or anywhere else. Here's the full video of a recent interview with Pakistan's General Khalid Kidawi on Pakistan 2nd strike capability:
I think senior American analyst and South Asia watcher Stephen Cohen summed up the current situation in South Asia when he said: "The alphabet agencies—ISI, RAW, and so forth—are often the chosen instrument of state policy when there is a conventional (and now a nuclear) balance of power, and the diplomatic route seems barren."
I see little likelihood of full-scale war between India and Pakistan. The best way for the two nuclear armed neighbors to proceed is sustained diplomatic engagement to resolve all outstanding issues including Kashmir. If the diplomatic route remains barren, there will be continuation of covert and proxy wars in the region.
Habibullah Khan @Huk06 India has a real Hangor problem now. Concurrently 5 advanced submarines will always be in the ocean submerged and undetectable. All of them with nuclear weapons.
Again as everything Pakistan does all of these are connected to multi domain operations web Pakistan has built. Allowing them to feed off of superior targeting data.
The cost of sea denial because of these sophisticated submarines on both operational and cost front just went up exponentially for India. Basically in any conflict these subs will keep India guessing because of their longer submerged times of 3 weeks. And with Pakistan’s tactical nuclear capability and willingness to strike first with them, most conflicts with India will not go that long. 3 weeks means they can easily pop up in the Bay of Bengal. No Indian deep water port is safe from them.
We spend very little compared to India. But because Indian military strategy and procurement is dominated by kickback driven politicians, it is fragmented, lacks efficacy and is less than the sum of its parts. Pakistan’s is focused on kill chains, integrated multi domain operations and is data driven so is always more than the sum of its parts.
NEW DELHI: Even as India's long-delayed P-75(I) project for six new-generation submarines continues to hang fire, Pakistan on Sunday announced that its newly inducted Chinese-built AIP submarine had successfully test-fired an anti-ship cruise missile in the North Arabian Sea.
The Pakistani military's media wing ISPR said PNS/M Hangor "accurately engaged" a long-range target during the firing, witnessed by Pakistan Navy chief Admiral Naveed Ashraf. It did not identify the missile, specify its range or say when the test was conducted.
Sources in the Indian defence establishment, however, said the missile was the Chinese YJ-18, assessed to be derived from the Russian Klub family, with a claimed strike range of up to 540 km in some variants.
The test comes just 12 days after a Pakistani naval vessel and an Indian warship collided in the North Arabian Sea on September 15. India had lodged a strong protest, holding that PNS Hunain approached the Indian warship at high speed and manoeuvred in an unsafe manner. Islamabad had disputed the Indian account. The Indian warship continued with its mission, while PNS Hunain had to return to port.
The real concern for the Indian Navy, however, is the platform itself.
Channel member @Seniorquasimodo asks: if Iran builds a nuclear deterrent, will Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the UAE follow, creating a stable balance of nuclear powers in the region? Would Israel and the United States allow it, and what is the future of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East? In this Ask the Professor, I make three points. First, the 2025 12-day war and the ongoing war that began on February 28 have given Iran powerful incentives to go nuclear, and Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq and Turkey would likely follow. Second, the Saudis have incentives to acquire a deterrent even if Iran doesn’t, because the United States can no longer protect them. Third, a region where every state has a survivable deterrent would be stable, but the proliferation process itself is extremely dangerous, since Israel and the United States have enormous incentives to strike before the capability is complete, and small arsenals may be vulnerable.
---------------------
Political scientist John Mearsheimer views nuclear weapons not as tactical battlefield tools, but as the "ultimate deterrent" and "weapons for peace" that heavily suppress large-scale war between states.
Key Views on Nuclear Deterrence & Survivability
• Survivable Nuclear Deterrence Reduces War: John Mearsheimer argues that if rival states (such as in the Middle East or past frameworks involving Ukraine) each possess a survivable nuclear deterrence, the likelihood of a major war drops drastically because the cost of mutual destruction is too high. • Weapons for Peace: He maintains that nuclear weapons act as a stabilizing floor in international relations. In his realist view, states pursue them out of a structural incentive for security rather than ideological malice. • Skepticism of Limited Nuclear Escalation Scripts: He has expressed doubt that a first-use or limited nuclear strike (such as in regional conflicts or Ukraine) cleanly stops or controls escalation. Once a nuclear threshold is crossed, leaders enter unpredictable territory where rational peacetime calculations break down. • Regional Dynamics (Israel and Iran): John Mearsheimer has argued that a survivable nuclear balance (or the logic driving states like Iran to seek a deterrent) mirrors the logic that made nuclear arsenals acceptable to other powers, though he has also noted the dangerous escalatory pressures if a cornered state faces existential defeat.
On October 26, 2006, a Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Song-class (Type 039, same as Pakistan’s Hangor Class) diesel-electric attack submarine surfaced undetected within five nautical miles of the aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk (CV-63) while it was operating with its strike group east of Okinawa, Japan. [1, 2, 3] Key Details of the Incident The Stalking and Surface: The Chinese submarine shadowed the U.S. carrier battle group—which included a dozen surface combatants, an attack submarine, and anti-submarine helicopters—without being detected by the fleet's defensive screen. It then surfaced within torpedo range (inside 5 miles) before being spotted visually by a routine aircraft surveillance flight. [1, 2, 3, 4] Why it wasn't detected: The Song-class is a diesel-electric submarine that runs on quiet battery power during slow operations, producing very low acoustic signatures compared to nuclear-powered submarines that U.S. anti-submarine warfare (ASW) systems were primarily tuned to find. [1, 2] Strategic Impact: Viewed as a watershed moment for China's naval modernization, the event shocked U.S. military planners and demonstrated the growing capability of non-nuclear submarines to challenge surface action groups in the Western Pacific. [1, 2]
—————
Pakistan’s Hangor-class submarine is an export variant based on China’s Type 039 (specifically the Type 039A/B or Yuan-class/S26 design). [1, 2, 3] Key Details: Base Design: It is developed by China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) as a derivative of the Chinese Type 039B / Yuan-class diesel-electric attack submarine. [1, 2] Propulsion: It features a Stirling-cycle Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) system, allowing it to stay submerged for much longer periods than traditional diesel-electric boats. [1, 2] Production Program ("4+4" Model): The first four submarines are built in China. The remaining four are built locally in Pakistan at the Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works (KSEW) via a technology transfer agreement. [1, 2] Lead Vessel: The first-in-class boat, PNS Hangor, was commissioned in April 2026 and arrived in Pakistan later that summer. [1, 2]
Riaz Haq
Habibullah Khan
@Huk06
India has a real Hangor problem now. Concurrently 5 advanced submarines will always be in the ocean submerged and undetectable. All of them with nuclear weapons.
Again as everything Pakistan does all of these are connected to multi domain operations web Pakistan has built. Allowing them to feed off of superior targeting data.
The cost of sea denial because of these sophisticated submarines on both operational and cost front just went up exponentially for India. Basically in any conflict these subs will keep India guessing because of their longer submerged times of 3 weeks. And with Pakistan’s tactical nuclear capability and willingness to strike first with them, most conflicts with India will not go that long. 3 weeks means they can easily pop up in the Bay of Bengal. No Indian deep water port is safe from them.
We spend very little compared to India. But because Indian military strategy and procurement is dominated by kickback driven politicians, it is fragmented, lacks efficacy and is less than the sum of its parts. Pakistan’s is focused on kill chains, integrated multi domain operations and is data driven so is always more than the sum of its parts.
https://x.com/Huk06/status/2104156123280601593?s=20
--------------
Pak's new Chinese Hangor submarine test-fires missile, India's sub plans still hang fire
https://www.newindianexpress.com/india/2026/Sep/27/paks-new-chinese...
NEW DELHI: Even as India's long-delayed P-75(I) project for six new-generation submarines continues to hang fire, Pakistan on Sunday announced that its newly inducted Chinese-built AIP submarine had successfully test-fired an anti-ship cruise missile in the North Arabian Sea.
The Pakistani military's media wing ISPR said PNS/M Hangor "accurately engaged" a long-range target during the firing, witnessed by Pakistan Navy chief Admiral Naveed Ashraf. It did not identify the missile, specify its range or say when the test was conducted.
Sources in the Indian defence establishment, however, said the missile was the Chinese YJ-18, assessed to be derived from the Russian Klub family, with a claimed strike range of up to 540 km in some variants.
The test comes just 12 days after a Pakistani naval vessel and an Indian warship collided in the North Arabian Sea on September 15. India had lodged a strong protest, holding that PNS Hunain approached the Indian warship at high speed and manoeuvred in an unsafe manner. Islamabad had disputed the Indian account. The Indian warship continued with its mission, while PNS Hunain had to return to port.
The real concern for the Indian Navy, however, is the platform itself.
Sep 27
Riaz Haq
The Danger of a Nuclear Middle East | Ask the Professor. Small nuclear arsenal survivability
https://youtu.be/BNHkcBM5FT0?is=pFJPa6PF1f9qRrIY
Channel member @Seniorquasimodo asks: if Iran builds a nuclear deterrent, will Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the UAE follow, creating a stable balance of nuclear powers in the region? Would Israel and the United States allow it, and what is the future of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East?
In this Ask the Professor, I make three points. First, the 2025 12-day war and the ongoing war that began on February 28 have given Iran powerful incentives to go nuclear, and Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq and Turkey would likely follow. Second, the Saudis have incentives to acquire a deterrent even if Iran doesn’t, because the United States can no longer protect them. Third, a region where every state has a survivable deterrent would be stable, but the proliferation process itself is extremely dangerous, since Israel and the United States have enormous incentives to strike before the capability is complete, and small arsenals may be vulnerable.
---------------------
Political scientist John Mearsheimer views nuclear weapons not as tactical battlefield tools, but as the "ultimate deterrent" and "weapons for peace" that heavily suppress large-scale war between states.
Key Views on Nuclear Deterrence & Survivability
• Survivable Nuclear Deterrence Reduces War: John Mearsheimer argues that if rival states (such as in the Middle East or past frameworks involving Ukraine) each possess a survivable nuclear deterrence, the likelihood of a major war drops drastically because the cost of mutual destruction is too high.
• Weapons for Peace: He maintains that nuclear weapons act as a stabilizing floor in international relations. In his realist view, states pursue them out of a structural incentive for security rather than ideological malice.
• Skepticism of Limited Nuclear Escalation Scripts: He has expressed doubt that a first-use or limited nuclear strike (such as in regional conflicts or Ukraine) cleanly stops or controls escalation. Once a nuclear threshold is crossed, leaders enter unpredictable territory where rational peacetime calculations break down.
• Regional Dynamics (Israel and Iran): John Mearsheimer has argued that a survivable nuclear balance (or the logic driving states like Iran to seek a deterrent) mirrors the logic that made nuclear arsenals acceptable to other powers, though he has also noted the dangerous escalatory pressures if a cornered state faces existential defeat.
on Monday
Riaz Haq
Pakistan’s new stealthy Hangor class submarine
On October 26, 2006, a Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Song-class (Type 039, same as Pakistan’s Hangor Class) diesel-electric attack submarine surfaced undetected within five nautical miles of the aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk (CV-63) while it was operating with its strike group east of Okinawa, Japan. [1, 2, 3]
Key Details of the Incident
The Stalking and Surface: The Chinese submarine shadowed the U.S. carrier battle group—which included a dozen surface combatants, an attack submarine, and anti-submarine helicopters—without being detected by the fleet's defensive screen. It then surfaced within torpedo range (inside 5 miles) before being spotted visually by a routine aircraft surveillance flight. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Why it wasn't detected: The Song-class is a diesel-electric submarine that runs on quiet battery power during slow operations, producing very low acoustic signatures compared to nuclear-powered submarines that U.S. anti-submarine warfare (ASW) systems were primarily tuned to find. [1, 2]
Strategic Impact: Viewed as a watershed moment for China's naval modernization, the event shocked U.S. military planners and demonstrated the growing capability of non-nuclear submarines to challenge surface action groups in the Western Pacific. [1, 2]
—————
Pakistan’s Hangor-class submarine is an export variant based on China’s Type 039 (specifically the Type 039A/B or Yuan-class/S26 design). [1, 2, 3]
Key Details:
Base Design: It is developed by China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) as a derivative of the Chinese Type 039B / Yuan-class diesel-electric attack submarine. [1, 2]
Propulsion: It features a Stirling-cycle Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) system, allowing it to stay submerged for much longer periods than traditional diesel-electric boats. [1, 2]
Production Program ("4+4" Model):
The first four submarines are built in China.
The remaining four are built locally in Pakistan at the Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works (KSEW) via a technology transfer agreement. [1, 2]
Lead Vessel: The first-in-class boat, PNS Hangor, was commissioned in April 2026 and arrived in Pakistan later that summer. [1, 2]
https://youtu.be/d1F96TuwcyQ?is=jD4OLuyz1hxNivfL
19 hours ago