Modi's India: A Paper Elephant?

"Desh ka bahut nuksaan hua hai", acknowledged Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi after his military's recent failures against Pakistan in Balakot and Kashmir. This marked a major shift in Modi's belligerent tone that has been characterized by his boasts of "chhappan inch ki chhati" (56 inch chest) and  talk of  "munh tor jawab" (jaw-breaking response) and "boli nahin goli" (bullets, not talks) to intimidate Pakistan in the last few years.  The recent events are forcing India's western backers to reassess their strategy of boosting India as a counterweight to China.



Balakot and Kashmir:

Indian government and media have made a series of false claims about Balakot "militant casualties" and "shooting down Pakistani F16".  These claims have been scrutinized and debunked by independent journalists, experts and fact checkers. There is no dispute about the fact that Squadron Leader Hasan Siddiqui of Pakistan Air Force (PAF), flying a Pakistan-made JF-17 fighter, shot down Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman of Indian Air Force (IAF) flying a Russia made MiG 21. Abhinandan was captured by Pakistan and then released to India.

Beautiful Balakot, Kaghan Valley, Pakistan

Western Narrative:
The widely accepted western narrative about India and Pakistan goes like this: "India is rapidly rising while Pakistan is collapsing". In a 2015 report from South Asia, Roger Cohen of New York Times summed it up as follows: "India is a democracy and a great power rising. Pakistan is a Muslim homeland that lost half its territory in 1971, bounced back and forth between military and nominally democratic rule, never quite clear of annihilation angst despite its nuclear weapons".

India-Pakistan Military Spending: Infographic Courtesy The Economist

India: A Paper Elephant?

In an article titled "Paper Elephant", the Economist magazine talked about how India has ramped up its military spending and emerged as the world's largest arms importer. "Its military doctrine envisages fighting simultaneous land wars against Pakistan and China while retaining dominance in the Indian Ocean", the article said. It summed up the situation as follows: "India spends a fortune on defense and gets poor value for money".
Pakistan Defense Spending. Source: Jane's Defense


After the India-Pakistan aerial combat over Kashmir, New York Times published a story from its South Asia correspondent headlined: "After India Loses Dogfight to Pakistan, Questions Arise About Its Military".  Here are some excerpts of the report:

"Its (India's) loss of a plane last week to a country (Pakistan) whose military is about half the size and receives a quarter (a sixth according to SIPRI) of the funding is telling. ...India’s armed forces are in alarming shape....It was an inauspicious moment for a military the United States is banking on to help keep an expanding China in check".
India-Pakistan Ratios of Tanks and Soldiers


Ineffective Indian Military:

Academics who have studied Indian military have found that it is ineffective by design. In "Army and Nation: The Military and Indian Democracy Since Independence",  the author Steven I. Wilkinson, Nilekani Professor of India and South Asian Studies and Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at Yale, has argued that the civil-military constraints that have helped prevent a coup have hurt Indian military effectiveness and preparedness in at least three important ways:

(1) the weakening of the army before the 1962 China war;

(2) the problems caused for defense coordination and preparation by unwieldy defense bureaucracy, duplication of functions among different branches and lack of sharing of information across branches and

(3) the general downgrading of pay and perks since independence which has left the army with huge shortage of officers that affected the force's discipline capabilities.

Summary:

India's international perception as a "great power rising" has suffered a serious setback as a result of its recent military failures against Pakistan which spends only a sixth of India's military budget and ranks 17th in the world, far below India ranking 4th by globalfirepower.com.  "Desh ka bahut nuksaan hua hai", acknowledged Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi after his military's recent failures in Balakot and Kashmir. This marked a major shift in Modi's belligerent tone that has been characterized by his boasts of "chhappan inch ki chhati" (56 inch chest) and  talk of  "munh tor jawab" (jaw-breaking response) and "boli nahin goli" (bullets, not talks) to intimidate Pakistan in the last few years.  The recent events are forcing India's western backers to reassess their strategy of boosting India as a counterweight to China.

Here's a discussion on the subject:

https://youtu.be/tEWf-6cT0PM


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Here's Indian Prime Minister Modi making excuses for his military's failures:

https://youtu.be/QIt0EAAr3PU

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  • Riaz Haq

    #Indian Defense Analyst Dr. Pravin Sawhney: "PAKISTAN HAS NEVER LOST TO INDIA. NOT IN 1965! NOT IN 1971! IF INDIA HAD DEFEATED PAKISTAN, THERE WOULD BE NO LINE OF CONTROL IN KASHMIR TODAY".

  • Riaz Haq

    #Indian Defense Analyst Dr. Pravin Sawhney: "PAKISTAN HAS NEVER LOST TO INDIA. NOT IN 1965! NOT IN 1971! IF INDIA HAD DEFEATED PAKISTAN, THERE WOULD BE NO LINE OF CONTROL IN KASHMIR TODAY". #India #Pakistan #China #Kashmir #CPEC | | JNN | https://youtu.be/QfhG-vtLfUs via @YouTube Watch at 33 Minutes in 43:12 Minutes video interview

  • Riaz Haq

    #India’s poor politico-strategic choices. #Modi is in a bind after major blunders in #Kashmir. #Ladakh #Galwan #China #Pakistan https://www.thefridaytimes.com/indias-poor-politico-strategic-choices/
    Recently, some in the Indian commentariat have begun talking about India facing a two-and-half front conflict situation. Strictly speaking, this is not new. We first heard the phrase in June 2017, just days before the Doklam standoff between India and China.
    It was a comment by then-Indian army chief, now Chief of Defence Staff, General Bipin Rawat. Rawat was speaking to the media. “The Indian Army is fully ready for a two-and-a-half front (China, Pakistan and internal security requirements simultaneously) war,” he was quoted as saying. He also talked about the 17 Mountain Strike Corps being raised from the scratch, as he put it. This Corps is meant specifically for offensive operations against China.
    At the time his statement drew many comments in India. Most analysts looked at India’s previous conflicts and determined that politico-military objectives are best gained when a state can focus on a single threat and neutralise it. Two or more fronts, even for a strong state, can be problematic. Resources, both in men and war materials, get divided; logistics can become a nightmare; focus is lost in planning for more than one front at the tactical, theatre and strategic levels; diplomatic space is shrunk when a state is fighting more than one adversary and so on.
    Three years from Rawat’s June 2017 statement, India thinks it faces the same situation again. The difference is that unlike the Doklam standoff, the current Sino-India face-off in Eastern Ladakh’s high-altitude barren heights and valleys has drawn blood, Indian blood, while the Chinese army sits comfortably on its gains. India is in a quandary. Despite Rawat’s boast, India doesn’t have many military options against China, not just in a land war scenario but also, as explained in detail by Pravin Sawhney, a former Indian army officer and now Editor of Force Magazine, across the full spectrum of military conflict.
    At the Line of Control against Pakistan Army, ceasefire violations continue, however. That said, here too the Indian Army and more notably Indian Air Force know since February 27, 2019, that a misadventure would be costly. It would have been costlier on that morning if the Pakistan Air Force strike package, under directions from the government, had not shown restraint. PAF dominated the skies and controlled communications. Such was the confusion that the air defence unit near Srinagar shot down an Indian Air Force Mi-17 V-5 helicopter belonging to the Srinagar-based No 154 Helicopter Unit. That fratricidal action was even worse than losing a MiG to PAF.
    Corollary: the China front is a militarily hopeless situation for India; the Pakistan front is a costly venture. As for Rawat’s half front, the internal security situation, people in the Occupied and now illegally annexed Jammu and Kashmir despise India to the last man and child. Despite a lockdown since August 5, 2019 and incarcerating thousands across jails in India, India has failed to break the spirit of Kashmiris. That front is already lost, unless Rawat, now at the top of the military pecking order as CDS, thinks that killing, maiming, arresting and torturing Kashmiris is a benchmark of success.
    ------------
    India’s trade volume with China stands at USD86 billion with much greater potential. It could have a peaceful South Asia and trade relations with Pakistan and beyond if it decided to work with Pakistan and China in a cooperative rather than a conflictual framework. But no, it won’t do that. After making poor choices it would double down on them, giving Rawat his misplaced two-and-half-front conflict scenario. If that is not stupid, I don’t know what is.
  • Riaz Haq

    #India’s New #Rafale Jet vs. #China’s J-20 Stealth Fighter. Do #French Built Planes Stand a Chance? Simple answer: NO! Rafale is lighter & less capable than #Russian Su-30MKI jet of which India currently deploys over 250. Chinese PL-15 missile is superior https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/india-s-new-rafale-jet-vs...

    Looking to the J-20, the fighter has one of the highest altitude ceilings in the world and can comfortably exceed Mach 2 speeds, meaning it will be able to attack the Rafale from above and provide its missiles with much more kinetic and gravitational potential energy. Its range and endurance are among the longest in the world, with the aircraft designed for long distance missions over the Pacific. More important than its flight performance advantages however are its technological ones. As a fifth generation fighter, the J-20 makes use of an advanced radar cross section reducing airframe. Although the fighters in peacetime often deploy with luneburg reflectors or external fuel tanks, making them easy to detect even at long ranges, when in ‘stealth mode’ the fighters have a small fraction of the radar cross section of any fourth generation jet making them extremely difficult to lock onto. The J-20 further benefits from advanced stealth coatings, an asset the Rafale lacks, which absorb radar waves and augment the stealth advantage already provided by the design of its airframe.

    In terms of situational awareness both the Rafale and J-20 deploy AESA radars, with France and China being the first two countries after Japan and the U.S. to integrate such radars onto fighter aircraft. It is important to consider that China’s research and development budget is several times higher, which combined with a much larger and generally more sophisticated military industrial base is expected to provide it with more advanced radar and electronic warfare systems. Not only this, but the J-20’s sheer size, more than twice as large as the Rafale, means it can carry a much heavier radar. The latter factor alone guarantees a significant advantage in situational awareness for the Chinese jet. The J-20’s situational awareness is further augmented by integration of state of the art distributed aperture systems, which are currently deployed only by the Chinese fighter and the American F-35 and will provide an important advantage over the Rafale particularly at closer ranges.

    ------

    Finally, looking to weaponry, the J-20 deploys the PL-15 air to air missile with a 250-300km range. The missile makes use of thrust vector controls and has a very high manoeuvrability, although its most outstanding feature is its use of an AESA radar which not only makes it much more difficult to jam than passive radar guided missiles, but also allows it to lock on to its targets at greater distances and better engage stealth targets at range. The Rafale currently deploys the ageing MICA air to air missile, which is effectively obsolete for long range engagements with a range of 80km - respectable for its time but now far surpassed by new Chinese and American technologies. India’s Rafales will, however, soon deploy the Meteor missile which is thought to have a range anywhere between 200-280km, a potential challenge to the PL-15. it remains uncertain whether the Meteor integrates an AESA radar as the PL-15 does, although given the cost equipping missiles with such radars would incur in Europe it is likely that the platform, like the latest American missiles, still uses a passively scanned radar.

  • Riaz Haq

    #Pakistan Tests Indigenous Fatah-1 Guided MLRS. It's an indigenously developed multiple launch guided #rocket system that can accurately deliver conventional warheads up to a range of 140 km deep inside enemy territory. #artillery https://quwa.org/2021/01/10/pakistan-tests-indigenous-fatah-1-guide... via @QuwaGroup

    Adding to Pakistan’s rocket artillery inventory, the Fatah-1 joins the A-100, Nasr, and Yarmouk-series. Like the Fatah-1, Pakistan manufactures the A-100, Nasr, and Yarmouk domestically.

    But in contrast to its other rockets, Pakistan is positioning the Fatah-1 as an offensively oriented weapon. The ISPR says the Fatah-1 gives Pakistan the ability to precisely engage targets “deep in enemy territory.”

    Background on the Fatah-1
    The Fatah-1 seems to be one of two MLRS the Pakistan Ministry of Defence Production (MoDP) referenced in its annual yearbook in 2015-2016. [1] These were a base MLRS and an “extended-range” MLRS.

    In 2019, the ISPR revealed the A-100 (which has a range of over 100 km) as an “indigenous” rocket. If the A-100 is the base MLRS, the 140-km Fatah-1 could be the “extended-range” MLRS design.

    There is no confirmed connection between the A-100 and Fatah-1. However, Pakistan apparently localized the A-100, so it would make sense for it to develop the Fatah-1 as a subvariant. If the Fatah-1 is a variant of the A-100, then it could share the same caliber (300 mm) and warhead weight (reportedly 235 kg).

    However, this apparent link is only speculation. The Fatah-1 could also be distinct design and, as a result, be a larger rocket design. For reference, the Chinese Weishi or WS-series of rockets have spun out into a diverse line-up of missiles of varying calibres, ranges, and applications.

    The ISPR’s mention of “precision target engagement” indicates that Pakistan configured the Fatah-1 with a guidance system. It could be a GPS/INS (or BeiDou/INS)-based suite. This enables Pakistan to feed Fatah-1 missiles with location data of predetermined targets.

    Thus, Pakistan could use the Fatah-1 as a long-range strike weapon, and potentially deploy it combination with precision-guided bombs (PGB), land-attack cruise missiles (LACM), and glide-munitions.

    How Pakistan May Deploy the Fatah-1
    Past footage of Pakistan’s artillery deployments show that it is using the SLC-2 counter-battery radar with the A-100E (which it was using before announcing a locally built variant). However, the range potential of the Fatah-1 exceeds the reported detection range of the SLC-2…

  • Riaz Haq

    #India and #Pakistan announce cease-fire for first time in nearly 20 years. Ties between #SouthAsian rivals are frozen since 2019 when #IAF bombed #Balakot and #PAF responded in #Kashmir by downing IAF planes and capturing an #Indian pilot #abhinandan https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/india-pakistan-ce...

    India and Pakistan announced Thursday that their armed forces would cease firing across their shared border, the first such step since 2003 and a potentially significant move toward reducing tensions between the two rivals.

    Military officials in the two countries released a joint statement saying they had agreed to a cease-fire that went into effect at midnight, including along the unofficial frontier in the disputed region of Kashmir.

    Indian and Pakistani soldiers regularly exchange artillery and small-arms fire in the region, a situation that analysts have described as a war by other means. The low-grade conflict is deadly, with dozens of villagers and military personnel killed each year.

    Relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbors have been frosty since 2019, when India conducted an airstrike in Pakistan after a terrorist attack killed 40 Indian soldiers in Kashmir. The two countries then engaged in their first aerial dogfight in nearly 50 years. Months later, India revoked Kashmir’s autonomy, further angering Pakistan.

    Since then, cross-border firing ­has intensified. There were more than 5,000 such incidents in 2020, according to Indian data, the highest such figure since 2002.

    “You’re looking at a lot of loss of life, with villagers getting killed on both sides,” said Happymon Jacob, a professor of international studies and author of a book on clashes between India and Pakistan in Kashmir.

    The new agreement, if effective, is “pathbreaking,” said Jacob. It will reduce violence and allow both countries to tell the international community and the Biden administration that they are taking steps to stabilize Kashmir, he said.

    Near the highly militarized frontier in Kashmir, the cease-fire announcement is a source of deep relief. Syed Ahmad Habib, 47, lives on the Indian side of the line, but his home is so close to the boundary that he can see houses in Pakistani-controlled territory.

    “Someone who has not seen shells rain down cannot imagine the kind of life we are living,” said Habib, 47, who is from a village called Mandhar. A childhood friend died in shelling earlier this year, he said. “If it has stopped, I am glad.”

    This is a “very positive” move, said Hasan Askari Rizvi, a security analyst in Pakistan who nevertheless cautioned that it remains unclear whether the agreement will be implemented successfully. If the firing ceases, Rizvi said, it opens the door to other confidence-building measures, such as making it easier for people and goods to travel between India and Pakistan.

    In theory, there is an existing cease-fire agreement between the two countries, which share both an international border and a 460-mile long unofficial frontier in Kashmir known as the Line of Control.


    The cease-fire understanding was announced in 2003 and, for the next several years, the Line of Control was relatively quiet. But after terrorists killed more than 160 people in Mumbai in 2008 — an attack carried out by a Pakistan-based militant group — incidents of cross-border firing began to increase. Since 2014, they have soared tenfold, according to Indian data.

  • Riaz Haq

    Powerful Jets With One Weakness: Pakistani JF-17 Pilot Recalls Clash With Indian Su-30MKIs by Delhi-based Indian journalist Younis Dar


    https://eurasiantimes.com/powerful-jets-with-one-weakness-pakistani...

    According to warfare experts, real-world dogfights don’t ever happen at close ranges, so the battle usually tilts in the favor of the side with potent BVR missiles. The aerial fights are largely decided, or largely influenced, by the BVR stage of the engagement. And in that arena, the capabilities of the JF-17 are competitive to the F-16 and Mirage.

    The JF-17’s main weakness is its limited BVR loadout as it has the ability to only carry four BVR missiles, unlike the Indian Su-30MKI which can carry eight or more.

    To close this air-to-air capability gap, the IAF is inducting the indigenously built all-weather Beyond Visual Range (BVR) Astra missile. It is also considering integrating the Israeli I-Derby Extended Range missile on its Su-30MKI fighter, IAF’s frontline fighter aircraft.

    These missiles are going to be the mainstay of the Indian air-to-air capability, along with the MICA medium-range BVR, and the long-range Meteor missiles.

    -------------

    Several of these jets managed to cross the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto India-Pakistan border, releasing precision-guided glide bombs on Indian military installations in the Rajouri sector in Jammu and Kashmir.

    The Indian Air Force (IAF) scrambled eight fighter aircraft, including two Russian Sukhoi-30 MKI, to intercept the Pakistani aircraft when the launch of several AIM-120 C5 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) was detected in their direction. The AMRAAMs, launched when the PAF jets were well inside the Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, surprised the IAF while they outranged their air-to-air missiles.

    The two Su-30MKIs were caught within the 100-km range of the Pakistani AMRAAMs and managed to dodge them. The IAF fighters were saved from being shot but were unable to retaliate against the adversary F-16s as the Russian R-77 missiles they were armed with did not have enough range.

    The IAF later said the Russian missiles were unable to deliver the advertised range and cannot engage targets farther than 80 km.

    The aerial duel between India and Pakistan had proved that the IAF had to work on its air-to-air missile inventory, which is where the Pakistanis had outpaced them. An Indian MiG-21 Bison was shot down and its pilot captured, while the Indian government claimed its fighter aircraft had downed one Pakistani F-16 during the dogfight.

    Pakistan’s Home-Grown JF-17 Fighters
    Pakistan’s indigenously-produced JF-17 had proved its mettle during the February 27 dogfight with India, and it was this jet that had managed to shoot down IAF’s MiG-21 Bison, according to the PAF.

    The single-engine light fighter is a relatively new combat aircraft and has been competing with fighters like the F-16, Saab Gripen, and MiG-29 for export contracts.

    According to the pilots who have flown the JF-17, the aircraft scores high on reliability, flight characteristics, and maintenance. And according to the JF-17 pilot who participated in the February 27 dogfight, the aircraft was getting a radar lock-on Su-30MKI at more than 100-km ranges.

  • Riaz Haq

    India’s suspect ‘Quad’ credentials. #COVID19 #pandemic has brutally exposed the hollowness of #India’s pretensions to power, status and influence and boasts of being a #vaccine superpower and #pharmacy to the world. #Quad #Modi #US #China #Hindutva #BJP https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2021/06/05/commentary/world-co...

    A chain is only as strong as its weakest link. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue process brings together Japan, Australia, India and the United States as an informal grouping of democracies to cooperate around the vast and critical Indo-Pacific maritime space.
    India has always been the weakest link in the chain. Its sizable armed forces equipped with nuclear weapons are a bulwark against China’s much superior military might. Still, it’s a very poor country with a per capita income of only 3% to 5% of the other three; a weak state with limited capacity to govern a billion plus population; and a soft state without the political will to make and implement tough decisions.
    The second wave of COVID-19 in April and May is India’s biggest national tragedy and international embarrassment since partition in 1947. The national and world press covered this in graphic detail (more than they would in their own countries), with images of people gasping to death on the streets, bodies piled up awaiting last rites and cremation and mass numbers of corpses floating in the Ganges River, many of which having washed up on its banks. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s carefully cultivated competence bubble has been punctured by the open display of mass ineptitude.
    In the wake of this stark and grim reminder of its manifold pathologies and weaknesses, the question must be asked: at which point would India become a liability rather than an asset for the other “Quad” partners? The question is important because the other three are bound together in formal alliances by security treaties and India is not, demonstrating less commitment.
    The excitement, expectations and hopes of the Modi government in 2014, with promises of “minimum government, maximum governance” and “sabka sath, sabka viswas, sabka vikash” (with all, with everyone’s trust, development for all), are fading memories. On June 1, India’s official COVID-19 deaths per million was 238 compared to the world average of 457, the U.S. at 1,832, the U.K. at 1,873 and Brazil reporting 2,163.
    The crux of the problem thus is not the unmitigated spread of COVID-19 but the lack of a fit-for-purpose public health infrastructure and the availability of medical supplies, equipment and drugs. India is a sobering reminder of why a strong economy is not an optional luxury but an essential requirement for good health.
    Modi’s neglect of urgent economic and governance reforms in addition to requirements for a good public health infrastructure — choosing instead to go into a semipermanent campaign mode in every state election and focusing on a Hindu nationalist agenda — further aggravated the COVID-19 misery.
    People’s health is vitally dependent on a healthy economy that gives the government the financial wherewithal to create an efficient universal-access public health system. No country achieves better health outcomes by becoming poorer.
    The pandemic, for its part, hastened an economic decline that had already begun. According to World Bank figures, India’s annual GDP growth tumbled from 8.3% in 2016 to 4.2% in 2019. It contracted by 7.3% in 2020–2021 and the 2021 GDP forecast has been downgraded by around 17% — the worst among the G20 countries.
    India got the worst of both worlds: a smashed economy and a massive COVID-19 toll that peaked in May with the official count recording nearly 400,000 daily new cases and over 4,000 daily new deaths. Recovery will be a long haul on both the disease and the economy front.

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan increases defence budget by 6% to USD8.8 billion

    https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/pakistan-increases-d...


    The Pakistan government has announced a defence budget of PKR1.37 trillion (USD8.78 billion) for fiscal year (FY) 2021–22. The allocation is a 6.2% increase over the original 2020–21 defence expenditure of PKR1.29 trillion.

    The new defence budget will represent about 16% of the government's total expenditure for 2021–22 and has been announced against the backdrop of Pakistan's improving economy. In 2020–21 the country's GDP is forecast to climb by nearly 4%, despite the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic.


    The bulk of Pakistan's defence budget is allocated to Defence Services, with a small amount for Defence Administration. The largest expenditure in the former appropriation is employee-related expenses, which in 2021–22 receives PKR481.6 billion, a 1% year-on-year increase.

    Defence Services also includes physical assets and operating expenses, which in 2021–22 receive PKR391.5 billion and PKR327.1 billion, increases of 9% and 8% respectively. Expenses for civil works is PKR169.7 billion, while Defence Administration receives PKR3.27 billion.

    In terms of the armed services, the Pakistan Army will receive PKR651.5 billion in 2021–22 (or nearly 48% of the total), while the Pakistan Air Force and Pakistan Navy have been allocated PKR291.1 billion and PKR148.7 billion (or 21% and 11%) respectively. The majority of the remainder is allocated for defence-wide requirements.

    In a separate appropriation, Pakistan's Defence Production Division, which supports the national defence industry, will receive PKR1.74 billion in 2021–22, an increase of nearly 11%.

  • Riaz Haq

    Countries with the biggest defence budgets in 2019

    1. United States of America – $717bn

    2. China – $177bn

    3. India – $60.9bn

    4. Germany – $53bn

    5. Saudi Arabia – $51bn

    6. United Kingdom – $49bn

    7. France – $48bn

    8. Japan – $47bn

    9. Russia – $46.4bn

    10. South Korea – $42bn

    ---------

    3. India – $60.9bn

    https://www.army-technology.com/features/biggest-military-budgets-w...

    The Indian defence budget witnessed a year-on-year increase of 8% in 2019, driven by anti-terrorism measures and territorial tensions with Pakistan and China.

    The capital and revenue expenditure allocations account for 34% and 66% of the total defence budget, respectively. The Indian Army has a 56% share in the latest defence allocation, followed by the Air Force (23%), Navy (15%), and DRDO (6%).

    The latest budget allocations will allow the Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD) to procure fighter aircraft, maritime patrol aircraft, attack helicopters, missiles, warships, submarines, main battle tanks (MBTs), and UAVs.

  • Riaz Haq

    #French judge to investigate #Rafale fighter jet sale to #India. France’s Sherpa NGO, which specialises in financial crime, filed an official complaint for “corruption” when Dassault chose Reliance Group of Ambani, who is close to PM #Modi https://f24.my/7o7h.T via @FRANCE24

    A French judge has been tasked with investigating a controversial 2016 multi-billion-dollar sale of Rafale fighter jets to India on “corruption” suspicions, the national financial prosecutors’ office (PNF) said Friday.

    The 7.8-billion-euro ($9.3-billion) deal for 36 planes between the Indian government and French aircraft manufacturer Dassault has long been mired in corruption allegations.

    The PNF had initially refused to investigate the sale, prompting French investigative website Mediapart to accuse it and the French Anti-corruption Agency of “burying” suspicions surrounding the September 2016 deal.

    In April, Mediapart claimed “millions of euros of hidden commissions” were given to a go-between who helped Dassault conclude the sale, of which “some... could have been given as bribes” to Indian officials.

    Dassault retorted that no wrong-doing was flagged in the group’s audits.

    After the reports, France’s Sherpa NGO, which specialises in financial crime, filed an official complaint for “corruption” and “influence peddling” among other accusations, prompting an investigating magistrate to be designated to probe the deal.

    Sherpa had already asked for an investigation into the deal in 2018, but the PNF took no action.

    In this first complaint, the NGO had denounced the fact that Dassault chose Reliance Group as its Indian partner, a conglomerate headed by billionaire Anil Ambani, who is close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

    Dassault had initially won a contract in 2012 to supply 126 jets to India and had been negotiating with Indian aerospace company Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL).

    By March 2015, those talks had almost reached a conclusion, according to Dassault.

    But in April of that year, after Modi paid an official visit to France, the talks suddenly broke down to general surprise.

    Reliance Group, which has no experience in aeronautics, replaced HAL and finalised a new contract for 36 jets.

    In January 2016, at the time of the negotiations, Reliance had financed a film co-produced by Julie Gayet, the partner of Francois Hollande, who was president at the time.

    Sherpa believes this could constitute “influence peddling”.

    Hollande said there was no conflict of interest, saying France had not had any say in who Dassault’s Indian partner was.

    France’s Le Monde newspaper also revealed that France in 2015 cancelled a 143.7-million-euro tax adjustment targeting a French firm belonging to Reliance, at the time when the deal was being negotiated.

  • Riaz Haq

    #Modi Announces Goal To Make #India, World's Strongest #Military Power In 'Aatmnirbhar' Way. This news came on the same say that #India slipped 7 places to 101 on Global #HungerIndex, behind #Bangladesh, #Nepal & #Pakistan. #GlobalHungerIndex2021 https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-goal-to-make-...

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi while addressing the event of the launch of seven state-run defence companies on the occasion of Vijaydashmi, said that he wants to robust India's defence capabilities in an 'Aatmnirbhar' way.

    On the occasion of Vijaydashmi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched seven state run defence companies.

    The government passed an order on 16th June to convert Ordnance Factory Board from a Government Department into seven 100% Government owned corporate entities.


    The Prime Minster said, "India is taking new resolutions to build new future. Today, there is more transparency & trust in defence sector than ever before."

    Stressing on the need for aatmnirbhar bharat, he said, "Under the aatmnirbhar bharat scheme, our goal is to make country world's biggest military power on its own.

    He said that major reforms have been rolled out in defence sector; instead of the conventional stagnant policies, the single window system has been arranged now.


    "After Independence, there was a need to upgrade ordnance factories, adopt new-age technologies, but it didn't get much attention," the Prime Minister said.

    The Prime Minsiter's office informed that the new strategy for defence production will focus on, 'Import substitution, diversification, newer opportunities and exports'.

    Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and representatives from the defence industry associations were present in the event.

    The Government of India has decided to convert Ordnance Factory Board from a Government Department into seven 100% Government owned corporate entities, as a measure to improve 'self-reliance in the defence preparedness of the country'. This move will bring about enhanced functional autonomy, efficiency and will unleash new growth potential and innovation, the Prime Minister's Office released a video informing about it.

    Rs. 65,000 Crore have been moved from the Ordinance Factory Board and allotted to these 7 companies, the video added.

  • Riaz Haq

    #RafalePapers: The 'bogus invoices' used to help #French firm clinch sale of jets to #India. Mediapart to publish false invoices for Dassault to pay at least 7.5 million euros in secret commissions to a middleman for sale of 36 Rafale jets to #NewDelhi https://www.mediapart.fr/en/journal/france/071121/rafale-papers-bog...

    It involves offshore companies, dubious contracts and “false” invoices. Mediapart can reveal that detectives from India's federal police force, the Central Bureau of Investigations (CBI), and colleagues from the Enforcement Directorate (ED), which fights money laundering, have had proof since October 2018 that French aviation firm Dassault paid at least 7.5 million euros (equivalent to just under 650 million rupees) in secret commissions to middleman Sushen Gupta. This was in the context of the French firm's long and ultimately successful attempt to secure a 7.8 billion-euro-deal in 2016 to sell 36 of its Rafale fighters to India.

  • Riaz Haq

    #Indian Def Analyst Bharat Karnad: #Abhinandan "is perhaps the only fighter pilot in history to be awarded a gallantry award — Vir Chakra, for being shot down over enemy territory after a questionable...kill by him of an enemy warplane" #Pakistan #PAF #IAF https://bharatkarnad.com/2021/11/08/chinas-n-buildup-and-one-other-...

    The news about Wing Commander Abhinandan making a time-grade promotion to Group Captain made me think about what brought him notoriety. He is perhaps the only fighter pilot in history to be awarded a gallantry award — Vir Chakra, for being shot down over enemy territory after a questionable, if not imaginary, kill by him of an enemy warplane. The IAF and the Indian government doubled down on the story that the combat aircraft Abhinandan shot out of the skies was a Pakistani F-16 even when it had too many holes in it. He was welcomed back, feted as a war hero with the then Air Chief, BS Dhanoa, even flying a celebratory sortie with him in a twin-seater MiG-21 Bison. Such are the small successes IAF is now reduced to.

    Not to go into the details of this episode, but what really happened? In broad brush terms, Abhinandan was obviously hotdoggin’ it, picked up an adversary aircraft on his radar, went after it in hot pursuit, fired off a shortrange R-60 air-to-air missile. That missile hit something; he claimed it was an F-16. In the heat of the pursuit, he little realized he had intruded into Pakistani airspace and, too late to maneuver and scoot out of trouble, found himself and his MiG-21 shot down by a PAF plane that had him in its “cone”.

    But it was not an F-16. The fact that no team from Lockheed Martin — producer of the F-16 aircraft, hightailed it to India or Pakistan to ascertain the details of that engagement is proof enough that no hardware of their’s was involved.

    If it was not a PAF F-16, many IAF veterans speculate what Abhinandan had in his sights was an ex- Chinese-built JF-17. Two parachutes were observed floating down after that fighting incident, conforming to the fact of two pilots of two downed aircraft. So, why have Abhinandan and the IAF stuck to the F-16 story? Because, well, there is more glory in shooting down a frontline F-16 than a Chinese ripoff of a Russian MiG-21 — the JF-17.

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan buys Chengdu #J10C fighter jets from #China. 25 newly acquired J-10Cs are expected to take part in the flypast on March 23 2022, as part of #Pakistan’s national day celebration. #PAF https://www.aviacionline.com/2021/12/pakistan-buys-a-squadron-of-ch... via @aviacionline

    The rumor that has been going around for a couple of years has just been confirmed. Pakistan is acquiring more than 25 Chengdu J-10 «Vigorous Dragon» multirole fighters, to face India’s purchase of the Dassault Rafale.

    The news was made public by Sheikh Rasheed Ahmad, Pakistan’s Interior Minister, during a public event. According to the Minister, the induction into service of the Chinese-origin fighter would begin as early as March 2022. In fact, according to the Minister, 25 J-10s are expected to flypast on March 23, as part of Pakistan’s celebration of that national festivity.

    There is still no official confirmation of the number of units purchased, but reliable sources in Pakistan claim that 36 aircraft are involved, enough to equip two squadrons of 18 fighters each.

    There are also no details yet on the model of the Vigorous Dragon purchased for the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), but Minister Sheikh Rasheed also commented that the addition of the J-10s are a direct response to the purchase of the Rafale by the Indian Air Force (IAF), and that these aircraft are far superior to the French fighters. It can therefore be assumed that the squadron of aircraft purchased are the J-10C model, the latest and most modern version of this fighter currently in production.

    The J-10C (or a derivative version of it adapted to the needs of the PAF) is a modern, agile and powerful 4.5 generation fighter. Equipped with an AESA active electronically scanning radar, powerful ECM, low RCS and a wide range of smart munitions at its disposal, it is in the same league as the Rafale acquired by India.

    If the minister’s predictions come true the J-10C (or CE or CP)would be the first fighter aircraft in active service in the Pakistan Air Force to incorporate AESA radar technology, even before the JF-17 Block III, a domestic product. Or will we hear news of the new version of the Thunder soon?

    Probably, as more funds become available, it should be followed by the purchase of a second J-10 squadron, and even a third, as the PAF’s re-equipment needs are great because it still has a large number of F-7 and Mirage ROSE fighters to replace. They could even end up replacing the 40+ of Lockheed Martin F-16s in service, if they are not upgraded in the short/medium term to the Viper variant.

  • Riaz Haq

    What's behind Pakistan's rumoured purchase of Chinese fighter jets?


    https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/what-s-behind-pakistan-s-rumoured...


    While there is no official confirmation from Islamabad, Ejaz Haider, a Pakistani military analyst, also says that “the purchase has been made and the first batch will fly on 23rd March, which is Pakistan's Republic Day,” according to multiple reports.

    The primary threat against Pakistan comes from India, resulting in wars and conflicts, says Haider, reminding us that the most recent escalation happened in Feb 2019 “when India aggressed against Pakistan.”

    Why now?

    “India operates the French Rafale and the capability is boosted by the Russian S-400 A2-AD system. As a result, that threat has to be tackled not just in relation to intentions but also capabilities. Pakistan cannot afford to allow major asymmetries in relation to its adversary,” Haider tells TRT World, explaining why Pakistan is making the purchase.

    In July, the Indian defence ministry announced its purchase of 36 Rafale fighter jets from France. Interestingly, Pakistan will also procure 36 warplanes from China, suggesting it’s a direct retaliation against New Delhi’s move.

    “Pakistan’s F-16 fighters are aging already and Pakistan’s own JF-17 Thunder is in the making. We actually needed to create a deterrent to face India’s purchase of Dassault Rafale,” Javed tells TRT World.

    Pakistan Air Force (PAF) fighter jet F-16 performs to commemorate the country's 'Operation Swift Retort', following the shot down of Indian military aircrafts on February 27, 2019 in Kashmir, during an air show in Karachi, February 27, 2020.
    Pakistan Air Force (PAF) fighter jet F-16 performs to commemorate the country's 'Operation Swift Retort', following the shot down of Indian military aircrafts on February 27, 2019 in Kashmir, during an air show in Karachi, February 27, 2020. (Akhtar Soomro / Reuters Archive)
    While Pakistanis cannot create a direct symmetry with the Indians considering the size of New Delhi’s military, Islamabad wants to ensure with the purchase of Chinese jets that it can compete in near-equal terms, according to Javed.

    “The Pakistan air force is one of the top air forces in the world,” he says.

    Haider agrees with that assessment.

    “PAF is a professional air force which, despite constrained resources, has performed brilliantly against the Indian Air Force. The February conflict proved that once again. That said, even top-shelf human resource and training requires state-of-the-art platforms,” he says.

    Why Chinese jets?

    China is a close ally of Pakistan due to various clashing points between Beijing and New Delhi across South Asia as Asia’s two major powers compete with each other to secure their political and economic interests in the strategically vital region.

    This equation means Pakistan and China share plenty of common ground on a number of issues, developing strategic ties and increasing military cooperation. But there are also other reasons for Pakistan’s purchase of Chinese jets.

    “Pakistan Air Force needs a 4.5 generation multirole fighter. European fighters are very expensive and the US is not an option because of suspension of security assistance with Islamabad, despite Pakistan being nominally a Non-Nato Ally,” Haider says.

    “Pakistan faces remarkable sanctions from the US despite its purchase of F-16s,” Javed says. As a result, like Turkiye, Pakistan has moved to create indigenous solutions to develop its military hardware in the face of US opposition, he says.

    Even operating F-16s is problematic for Pakistan because Washington places restrictive conditions on their use, Javed says. There are also problems related to its repair process, he adds. China does not usually place conditions on the weapons it sells to other countries.

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan’s interest in the J-10 spans over 10 years. The country was first interested in the FC-20 export variant of the single seat J-10A. This was part of the wider Armed Forces Development Plan 2015, derailed by a lack of funding by the 2008-2013 Pakistan Peoples Party administration.

    https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/01/03/pakistan...

    Pakistan’s interest in the FC-20 was partially driven by a need to complement its F-16, when further acquisition of that program appeared unlikely.

    Pakistan also reportedly examined acquiring the Russian Su-35 “Flanker-E,” potentially to help better cover naval operations in the Arabian Sea.

    When speculation first arose of a Pakistani J-10C purchase in early 2021, it was linked with one of the Pakistan Air Force squadrons based in Karachi.

    China’s naval air arm, the PLANAF, operates the earlier J-10AH and J-10SH Firebird variants from shore as multirole aircraft.

    Though unconfirmed, Pakistan may operate its aircraft similarly. Pakistan’s Firebirds are believed to be the J-10CE export variant of the latest J-10C, featuring an AESA radar and long range PL-15 air-to-air missiles. Twenty-five aircraft could equip two squadrons of 12 aircraft.

    Royal United Services Institute airspace analyst Justin Bronk said the J-10C will significantly boost Pakistan’s air power.

    “The J-10C is a potent modern multirole light fighter, which represents a rough Chinese equivalent to a modern F-16 Block 60/70,″ he said.

    However, he noted it’s not quite on a par with the Rafale.

    “The AESA radar and access to the long-ranged PL-15 air-to-air missile make it a potentially serious long range threat to non-stealth aircraft, although it might still struggle as a counter to India’s Rafale at long ranges. The latter’s superior kinematic performance and access to the Meteor missile providing a decent counter to the PL-15″, Bronk said. “The J-10C is also unlikely to be able to match the Rafale for electronic warfare capabilities.”

  • Riaz Haq

    Sushant Singh
    @SushantSin
    India's 'accidental firing' of Brahmos has raised serious questions which can't be dealt in the same manner, by obstruction and obfuscation of facts, as has been done with Balakot airstrike and Ladakh border crisis. The consequences are unimaginable. My piece in
    @DeccanHerald

    https://twitter.com/SushantSin/status/1502836352886337538?s=20&...

    -------------


    Christopher Clary
    @clary_co
    “Pakistan has claimed that the DGMO hotline wasn’t activated to inform it of the accidental firing of the missile and its trajectory. This has been neither disputed nor explained by the Indian side.”

    https://twitter.com/clary_co/status/1502845103446147079?s=20&t=...

  • Riaz Haq

    A 'Broken Arrow' raises serious questionsThe recent missile misfire has jeopardised India's long-standing reputation in nuclear safety

    Read more at: https://www.deccanherald.com/national/a-broken-arrow-raises-serious...

    By Sushant Singh, Senior Fellow, Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi

    ------

    Pakistan has claimed that the DGMO-level hotline wasn’t activated to inform it of the accidental firing of the missile and its trajectory. This has been neither disputed nor explained by the Indian side.

    India's 'accidental firing' of Brahmos has raised serious questions which can't be dealt in the same manner, by obstruction and obfuscation of facts, as has been done with Balakot airstrike and Ladakh border crisis. The consequences are unimaginable.

    India and Pakistan, as subcontinental neighbours, do not have the luxury of time for considered decision-making when missiles are flying in either direction. Consider that the entire flight time of this accidently fired missile was about six minutes. That is about the time available for the decision-makers in either country to take a call. Essentially, 360 seconds are all that are available to Islamabad and New Delhi between doing nothing or going to war, accidental and unintended.

    India, as the bigger country, has the cushion of geography, while Pakistan, driven by the insecurity of a small territory, has a nuclear security doctrine of ‘first use’. To avoid the destruction of its arsenal and delivery systems by a pre-emptive Indian strike, it deems it necessary to strike India first in the event of hostilities threatening to break out. This makes the situation more dangerous in the subcontinent.
    An environment of relative calm between India and Pakistan, with a ceasefire on the LoC in Kashmir, definitely helped the Pakistani military keep its cool in the face of an Indian missile. Would it have reacted so maturely in the midst of military or political tensions? Or can Pakistan be blamed if they assume that certain rogue elements had taken control of the missile system in India and fired on it? Crucially, if the missile had a self-destruct feature, why wasn’t it activated? Should we expect every junior Pakistani military officer to display the same sagacity and courage as the Soviet naval officer Vasili Arkhipov, the Brigade Chief of Staff on submarine B-59, who refused to fire a nuclear missile and prevented a nuclear disaster in 1962? Or of the Soviet military duty officer Stanislav Petrov who, on seeing an early-warning system showing an incoming US strike, with about half-a-dozen missiles, in the early hours of September 26, 1983, made the call – in the face of incomplete information and doubt -- that it was a system malfunction, instead of reporting it to his superiors as enemy missile launches?

    -----------------------
    The lives of 1.6 billion people of India and Pakistan cannot be dependent on such lucky breaks. It is for these reasons – the destructive capacity of nuclear weapons, the minimal time available to take a decision, and Pakistan’s strategic mindset – accidents are unacceptable. Questions raised in western capitals about the safety and security of our nuclear weapon systems and processes were regularly dismissed by New Delhi by citing its impeccable track-record and supposedly fool-proof systems. It allowed India, despite the concerted efforts of certain American experts, to de-hyphenate itself from Pakistan’s poor track record of proliferation, its weak security systems always seen to be at risk of being infiltrated by religious religious extremists in uniform. On issues of nuclear safety, Pakistan has always attempted to bracket India with itself, but has often failed. But now, we have come out looking like either bumbling idiots or out of control, while the Pakistanis have come out as being both capable and mature. India can dismiss all Pakistani allegations but there will be renewed questions from the US non-proliferation lobby that are going to be tougher for New Delhi to respond to.

  • Riaz Haq

    Indian defense analyst Bharat Karnad: "No reason to doubt the Pakistani claim (about India's missile launch) because the Pakistani air defence complex at Sargodha, District Miani, is very advanced and capable of detecting cruise and ballistic missile firings and minutely tracking their trajectory"


    https://bharatkarnad.com/2022/03/14/even-if-authorised-missile-firi...

    India on Friday said a missile that landed in Pakistan on March 9 was fired ‘accidentally’ due to a technical malfunction. The defence ministry ordered a court of inquiry into the incident a day after Pakistan said a high-speed projectile launched from India entered its airspace and fell near Mian Channu in Khanewal district.

    Bharat Karnad, emeritus professor of national security studies at the Centre for Policy Research, the New Delhi think-tank, tells Rediff.com Senior Contributor Rashme Sehgal.

    While the defence ministry has explained that the missile fired into Pakistan was due to a ‘technical malfunction’, former naval chief Admiral Arun Prakash has tweeted that these missiles can never be launched accidentally but only when authorised.What does that indicate?

    The Admiral is right. This seems like an unauthorised firing. Further, even if authorised, the firing makes no sense, because there was no active warhead. So, what was the aim?

    This missile was accidentally fired on March 9, one day before the counting of votes of the assembly elections. Could there be a co-relation between these two events?

    No. The co-relation is only in the minds of the conspiracy inclined, and there is no dearth of those in the country.

    The missile mishap occurred on March 9, but the government came up with a clarification on March 11. Why this delay?

    Well, the government was first waiting for a formal Pakistani protest. And it took another day to craft a diplomatic apology.

    What does this say about their safety mechanisms and the technical prowess in the way these dangerous weapons are being maintained in India?

    That’s precisely the worry attending on this misfiring.

    Indeed, the Pakistani government was quick to capitalise on this incident of the Brahmos missile going astray.

    Prime Minister Imran Khan’s National Secrity Adviser Dr Moeed Yusuf publicly expressed concern and asked the international community to note the fairly casual manner in which missiles are operated.by the Indian armed forces.

    He went on, understandably, to extend that concern to India’s handling of nuclear weapons and their delivery systems.

    Such criticism is bound to have an effect on international opinion and hurt India’s self-confessed status as a ‘responsible State’.

    The defence ministry seems to have landed with egg on its face.

    A whole barnyard full of eggs, in fact. This is quite shocking and simply cannot be credibly explained away by referring to a ‘technical glitch’.

    The triggering mechanism is a hardy piece of work including a firing sequence and a final authorisation.

    How this process was obviated is a mystery.

    Pakistan’s foreign office summoned India’s charge d’affaires in Islamabad to lodge a warning that this unprovoked violation of its airspace could have endangered passenger flights and civilian lives.

    Well, yeah, anything could have happened, including the missile, even with a dummy warhead, kinetically taking out a passenger aircraft.

    In your view, could this have been a BrahMos cruise missile possessing nuclear capability?

    The Brahmos missile has interchangeable warheads and can carry both conventional and nuclear weapons.

    But most forward-deployed Indian cruise missiles are conventionally armed.

    If it was a nuclear missile — albeit unarmed — is there a possibility in the future that the command and control system could fail again in the future which could have dangerous consequences for both nations?

    Unless the government clarifies the nature of the ‘technical glitch’ everything is in the realm of speculation. That could include a faulty command and control system.

  • Riaz Haq

    #India's Size Illusion by Arvind Subramanian. #Indian policymakers should avoid succumbing to the illusion of size, and reconcile themselves with their country's current status as a middling power. #Modi #BJP #Hindutva #Russia #Ukraine #China @ProSyn https://prosyn.org/hNyXBIw

    True, India’s economy is undeniably large. According to the International Monetary Fund, India is the world’s third-largest economy in purchasing-power-parity terms, with a GDP of $10 trillion, behind China ($27 trillion) and the United States ($23 trillion). At market exchange rates, its GDP of $3 trillion makes it the sixth-largest economy, behind the US, China, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom.

    But India’s economic size has not translated into commensurate military strength. Part of the problem is simple geography. Bismarck supposedly said that the US is bordered on two sides by weak neighbors and on two sides by fish. India, however, does not enjoy such splendid isolation. Ever since independence, it has been confronted on its Western frontier by Pakistan, a highly armed, chronically hostile, and often military-ruled neighbor.

    More recently, India’s northern neighbor, China, also has become aggressive, repudiating the territorial status quo, occupying contested land in the Himalayas, reclaiming territory in the east, and building up a large military presence along India’s borders. So, India may have fish for neighbors along its long peninsular coast, but on land it faces major security challenges on two fronts.

    Despite these challenges and its sizable economy, India has struggled to generate adequate military resources. Defense expenditure is notoriously difficult to estimate, especially for China and Pakistan, which have opaque political systems. But annual combined defense spending by India’s two adversaries is likely to be three times the $70-75 billion that India spends. And the effective gap is probably even larger, because India’s politically driven emphasis on military manpower has crowded out spending on military technology. In short, India may have a large economy, but dangerous geography and domestic politics have left it militarily vulnerable.

    Then there is the question of market size. As Pennsylvania State University’s Shoumitro Chatterjee and one of us (Subramanian) have shown, India’s middle-class market for consumption is much smaller than the $3 trillion headline GDP number suggests, because many people have limited purchasing power while a smaller number of well-off people tend to save a lot. In fact, the effective size of India’s consumer market is less than $1 trillion, far smaller than China’s and even smaller relative to the potential world export market of nearly $30 trillion.

    ---------------
    India needs to accept, and act in line with, its current status as a middling power. Over time, rapid and sustained economic growth could make India the major power it aspires to be. Until then, it must look past the illusion of size and reconcile itself with strategic realities.

  • Riaz Haq

    China ramps up arms exports to Pakistan, aiming to squeeze India
    Beijing and Islamabad grow closer with eye on mutual rival

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/China-ramp...

    BEIJING/NEW DELHI -- From the sale of stealth fighters to submarines, China is accelerating its defense cooperation with Pakistan in a bid to exert pressure on India, a rival in border disputes with both.

    China is believed to want to expand its influence in South Asia while the U.S. and Europe are focused on the war in Ukraine. Beijing "stands ready to provide assistance within its capacity for Pakistan to overcome difficulties and recover its economy," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan in a Tuesday meeting, according to China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

    Khan expressed hopes for joint achievements and cooperation "in all fields," the ministry said. Ukraine was among the other topics discussed.

    China this month delivered six J-10CE fighter jets to Pakistan, the Communist Party-affiliated Global Times has reported. An update to China's homegrown J-10s, they are a key part of the Chinese air force and often fly into Taiwan's air defense identification zone.

    The J-10CE is a so-called 4.5-generation fighter, placing it somewhere between the F-15s used widely by Japan and the U.S. and F-35 stealth fighters in terms of capability. The delivered jets later took part in a military parade in Pakistan.

    Pakistan this month is also adding 50 new JF-17 fighters, which were developed jointly with China. They do not match the performance of the J-10CE but do come with near-stealth capability.

    India recently deployed the Russian S-400 missile defense system with an eye toward Pakistan. China looks to bolster its response to potential Indian air operations through greater cooperation with Pakistan.

    China is actively contributing to improvements in Pakistan's navy as well, concerned that the Indian military could wield greater clout in key Indo-Pacific sea lanes. Pakistan in January inducted a Chinese-built Type 054 frigate, which is designed for anti-surface, anti-air and anti-submarine warfare.

    "Pakistan is reportedly also planning to purchase from China eight submarines, which Pakistan is positioning as the 'backbone of the Navy,'" Japan's Ministry of Defense said in its 2021 white paper. "Four will be built in China, with the remainder to be built in Pakistan."

    Sino-Indian relations have deteriorated since the deadly 2020 border clash in the Himalayas. India also announced a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Olympics at the last minute after a Chinese soldier who had been involved in the fighting was chosen as a torchbearer.

    Chinese President Xi Jinping invited Khan to the Olympics' opening ceremony. At a Feb. 6 summit, Xi told Khan that bilateral ties had gained greater strategic significance amid global turbulence and transformation. He expressed firm support for Pakistan's sovereignty -- a likely signal that China stands with Pakistan in the latter's own border dispute with India.

    Khan expressed hopes for greater cooperation with China. No force can stop China's advance, he said.

  • Riaz Haq

    Should India insist on large warships after sinking of Russia’s Moskva?

    Moskva rests at the bottom of the Black Sea and its loss could animate India’s maritime debate involving large naval ships. But the warning sign that must hang over it, is that its relevance to the Indian context can be different.

    https://theprint.in/opinion/should-india-insist-on-large-warships-a...

    The loss of a key surface naval asset to cruise missiles provides fodder to buttress some arguments in an ongoing global debate within maritime powers. The debate is an offshoot of a larger debate on the survivability of large platforms like aircraft carriers due to their vulnerability to precision-guided munitions like cruise missiles. It is a debate that is particularly relevant to India and one that continues to animate the Indian Navy’s insistence on the continued relevance of the aircraft carrier.

    Technological advancements in surveillance capabilities that are networked with missiles based on air, land, and sea platforms have certainly increased the vulnerability of surface naval assets. Accuracy is significantly improved by using a combination of Global Positioning Signals (GPS), laser guidance and inertial navigation systems. Simultaneously, the development of countermeasures also reduces the vulnerability factor. It is a cat-and-mouse game in technology development that mostly tends to favour the attacker over the defender. The obvious route for the attacker is to overwhelm the defender’s ability by firing a large number of missiles simultaneously on the same target. Also, the pace of development and cost of missiles that can penetrate the defender’s missile shield is quicker and cheaper than developing and fielding missile defences.

  • Riaz Haq

    The Army in Indian Military Strategy: Rethink Doctrine or Risk Irrelevance
    ARZAN TARAPORE

    https://carnegieindia.org/2020/08/10/army-in-indian-military-strate...

    India’s military strategy has been dominated by an orthodox offensive doctrine—a method of using force that favors large formations tasked with punitive incursions into enemy territory. This doctrine is orthodox in its preference for large combined-arms army formations, usually operating with minimal coordination with other services and relatively autonomously from its political masters. It is offensive in its military aims of imposing a punitive cost on the enemy––usually in the form of capturing territory for the purposes of gaining leverage in postwar negotiations––even if it is usually deployed in the service of a strategically defensive policy of maintaining the territorial status quo. And it is a doctrine in that it represents an enduring set of principles governing the Indian Army’s use of force, regardless of the scarcity of public doctrinal publications.

    This paper argues that the stubborn dominance of the orthodox offensive doctrine, even in the face of drastic changes in India’s strategic environment, renders the military a less useful tool of national policy. In the two decades since India fought its last war in and around the district of Kargil in 1999, three major strategic trends have fundamentally changed India’s security environment: nuclear deterrence has made major conventional war unlikely; China’s military power and assertiveness now pose an unprecedented threat; and radical new technologies have redefined the military state of the art. India’s security policy has not kept pace. Given the balance of military power on India’s northern borders, India cannot decisively defeat either Pakistan or China on the battlefield. Without the ability to impose such unacceptable costs, India’s doctrine will not deter its rivals, which both have significant resolve to bear the costs of conflict. The continued pursuit of large, offensive military options also raises the risk that its enemies will rely on escalatory—even nuclear—responses. And because the doctrine demands a force structure of large ground-holding formations, it pulls scarce resources away from modernization and regional force projection—a problem made especially acute as the Indian government makes tough economic choices amid the coronavirus pandemic.

    The remainder of this paper is divided into five parts. First, it surveys the history of India’s military strategy, showing its reliance on ground forces and the orthodox offensive doctrine. Second, it outlines the three major strategic changes that have upended India’s security environment in the twenty-first century. Third, it analyzes the reasons why India’s strategy and doctrine have failed to adapt. Fourth, the paper argues that India’s military is less useful in this new environment. Finally, the paper concludes with some recommendations for the Indian Army.

  • Riaz Haq

    #Pakistan boosts #defense budget by nearly 6% in PKR to $7.19 billion in FY 2023. Official figure for #military expenditures amounts to about 2.2% of its gross domestic product — a drop from 2.45% of its #GDP compared to the fiscal 2021-2022 time frame.
    https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/06/10/pakistan...

    Though mainly covering salary increases, some of the extra money is earmarked for infrastructure such as the continued development of Jinnah Naval Base in Ormara, the Navy’s main operational base, and a naval air base in Turbat.

    Official figures state the 83 billion rupee (U.S. $412 million) increase pushes the defense budget up to nearly 1.45 trillion rupees (U.S. $7.19 billion). That implies the 2021 defense budget was about $7.49 billion.

    The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a Sweden-based think think, found that Pakistan’s military-related expenditures for 2021 came to $11.3 billion. However, the difference could come down to how the procurement budget is created.

    The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a Sweden-based think think, found that Pakistan’s military-related expenditures for 2021 came to $11.3 billion (including pensions). However, the difference could come down to how the procurement budget is created.


    Amid the ongoing threat of domestic terrorism and the need to maintain a credible deterrent against India, the fate of Pakistan’s economy does not bode well, according to Pakistan expert Claude Rakisits, who teaches at the Australian National University.

    “Pakistan’s economic situation is in dire straits. This makes it difficult for the government to buy new hardware or even plan ahead for new acquisitions,” he said.

    Brian Cloughley, an analyst and former Australian defense attache to Islamabad, has tracked developments in Pakistan for decades, and he doubts the government’s fiscal approach will be different from previous ones that failed to address underlying issues, including the country’s elite effectively ruling for their own benefit, leading to Pakistan’s cycle of economic woes.


    “It is likely, however, that there will be announcement of deferment of expenditure plans for at least some acquisitions, if only to try to convince the [World Bank and International Monetary Fund] that their present, fairly benevolent policy on Pakistan should be maintained,” he said.

    But he also believes Pakistan can likely rely on its allies and other friendly nations to carry the load. “The Chinese and the Saudis will probably continue to support Pakistan’s military posture and plans, and the current — most serious — economic crisis will have little effect on the military overall.”

    Rakisits agreed that Pakistan might rely on China, although Beijing will likely step in for its own benefit.

    “China has a vital interest in ensuring that not only does Pakistan’s economic situation not get worse, which could threaten the overall stability of the country and the viability of its CPEC project, but that it is in a position to maintain its defense capability,” Rakisits said, referring to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which is meant to improve infrastructure to strengthen trade between the two countries.

    “Accordingly, It’s almost certain that Beijing will assist Pakistan financially in one way or another, especially in light of the West’s increased interest in selling military hardware to India,” he added.

  • Riaz Haq

    Sushant Singh
    @SushantSin

    The motivations for bringing in the short-term contractual recruitment of (Indian) soldiers are financial but its consequences will be borne by the military and the society. Agnipath scheme belies any understanding of soldiering as a profession of honour. My piece in today's
    @the_hindu


    https://twitter.com/SushantSin/status/1538000288061067264?s=20&...

  • Riaz Haq

    Financial motivations
    The OROP demand became tricky to fulfil but it was officially instituted in November 2015 for more than 25 lakh defence pensioners.
    It came with an immediate annual financial implication of ₹7,123.38 crore and the actual arrears from July 1, 2014 to December 31, 2015 were ₹10,392.35 crore.
    The financial burden increased cumulatively over time and has substantially increased the budgetary expenditure on defence pensions.
    In the current financial year, ₹1,19,696 crore has been budgeted for pensions, along with another ₹1,63,453 crore for salaries —that is 54% of the allocation for the Defence Ministry.
    It has been argued that the savings in the pensions bill — which will show up on the books only after a couple of decades — would be directed towards the modernisation of defence forces.
    The armed forces do not have that kind of time available to them to postpone their already long-delayed modernization.
    The Indian Air Force is already down to 30 squadrons of fighter jets against the 42 squadrons it needs, and the Indian Navy is at 130 ships when its vision was to be a 200 ship navy; the Indian Army is already short of 1,00,000 soldiers.
    The announcement of the Agniveer scheme is an implicit acknowledgement that the Indian the economy is incapable of supporting the armed forces that India needs.
    It faces an active military threat from two adversaries, China and Pakistan, and the internal security challenges in Kashmir and the northeastern States.
    Hence we must not resort to shrinking the military and rather must expand the economy to support the military and its needs.
    Damaging consequences

  • Riaz Haq

    The policy has neither been theoretically drafted nor applied as a pilot project which brings uncertainty in its consequences post-implementation.
    Delayed consequences might be seen at operational levels of the Military especially the Navy and the Air Force which requires specialization in various areas.
    The training infrastructure, administrative working, etc. might be insufficient currently to the handle retention, release and recruitment of huge number of young soldiers.
    In the Agnipath pral, the class-based recruitment has been replaced with an all-India all-class recruitment. The reasons for this will strike at the core of the organizational management, leadership structures and operating philosophy of the Indian Army.
    Replacing the social identity of the soldiers with a purely professional identity would bring its own challenges in a tradition-bound army.
    There will be major problems in training, integrating and deploying soldiers with different levels of experience and motivations.
    The criterion of identifying the 25% short-term contracted soldiers to be retained could result in unhealthy competition.
    An organisation that depends on trust, camaraderie and esprit de corps could end up grappling with rivalries and jealousies amongst winners and losers, especially in their final year of the contract.
    just like the OROP issue, this could become a politically attractive demand for longer tenures and pensions to be picked up by the Opposition parties. Over time, this will lead to the salary and pension budget creeping back up again.
    Political, and social implications
    The Agnipath scheme also does away with the idea of a State-wise quota for recruitment into the Army, based on the Recruitable Male Population of that State which was implemented from 1966. This prevented an imbalanced army, which was dominated by any one State, linguistic community or ethnicity.
    Academic research shows that the high level of ethnic imbalance has been associated with severe problems of democracy and an increased likelihood of civil war.
    Coupled with this is the lack of hope in India’s economy, where over 45 crore Indians have stopped looking for jobs, there are
    high levels of unemployment and underemployment.
    It is to this mix that these few thousand young men who have been trained in inflicting organized violence will be thrown up every year.
    From erstwhile Yugoslavia to Rwanda — and closer home, during Partition — there are numerous examples of demobilised soldiers leading to increased violence against minorities.
    Way Forward
    In India, the Indian Army has so far provided salary, uniform and prestige, an inheritance of the British who took care of the living conditions, facilities for the soldiers’ families, and postretirement benefits and rewards, such as grants of land. A short-term contractual soldier, without earning pension, will be seen as doing jobs after his military service that are not seen to be commensurate in status and prestige with the profession of honour. It will reduce the motivation of those joining on short-term contracts while diminishing the “honour” of a profession which places extraordinary demands on young men. The Government’s yearning for financial savings runs the risk of reducing the honour of a profession, the stability of a society and the safety of a country.

  • Riaz Haq

    Thousands ransack #Indian #railway station as #protests intensify over #India’s #military hiring plan. In a bid to contain the outrage, #Modi gov't has announced concessions for those who will serve under the #AgnipathScheme. #BJP #Hindutva #Islamophobia https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/19/thousands-ransack-rai...

    Protesters in India’s eastern state of Bihar have damaged public property and ransacked offices in a railway station, expressing outrage at a new military recruitment plan and demanding the government reverse course.

    The government of the prime minister, Narendra Modi, has introduced a scheme called Agnipath, or “path of fire”, designed to bring more people into the military on four-year contracts to lower the average age of India’s 1.38 million-strong armed forces.

    A top military general, Lieut Gen Anil Puri, told the NDTV news channel that the aim of the plan was to make the military more modern and effective.

    Analysts said the new scheme would also help cut burgeoning pension costs, but opponents believe it would limit opportunities for permanent jobs in the defence forces, with implications for salaries, pensions and other benefits.

    One person was killed this week and more than a dozen have been injured in a series of protests in some regions of the country against the new scheme.

    Thousands of young men attacked train coaches, burned tyres and clashed with officials at a railway station in Bihar, one of India’s poorest states, on Saturday.

    Authorities cancelled 369 trains nationwide, many of them running through areas witnessing unrest.

    Sanjay Singh, a senior police official overseeing law and order in the state, said at least 12 protesters were arrested and at least four policemen injured in clashes.

    “Around 2,000 to 2,500 people entered the Masaurhi railway station and attacked the forces,” he said.

    In Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, police arrested at least 250 people under what are called preventative arrests. Some demonstrators accused the police of using excessive force.

    In a bid to contain the outrage, the federal government on Saturday announced concessions for those who will serve under the scheme.

    The federal home ministry announced it would reserve 10% of vacancies in the paramilitary forces and Assam Rifles, a unit in the Indian army, for those who have passed out of the army after the four-year period mandated in the scheme.

    The defence ministry stated it would reserve 10% of its vacancies for those who have completed the scheme.

    “Perhaps because it is a new scheme, people have misunderstood it, but we have been discussing this with everyone, including ex-servicemen,” the defence minister, Rajnath Singh, told a conference on Saturday.

    The scheme calls for retaining 25% of the recruited soldiers after four years of service, with the rest getting priority for other jobs, such as with the state police.

    The navy chief said on Friday the protests were unexpected and probably the result of misinformation about the new system.

    “I didn’t anticipate any protests like this,” Admiral R Hari Kumar told ANI. “It is the single biggest human resource management transformation that has ever happened in the Indian military.”

    The scheme is not open for women in combat roles and there are no current plans to change this.

  • Riaz Haq

    Fidato
    @tequieremos
    India has introduced the ‘Agnipath Scheme’ for recruitment of contractual soldiers in Armed Forces. After completing a term of four years, 75% of recruits, known as Agniveers, will be discharged from service.

    Let's analyse the impact of Agnipath scheme in this detailed thread:

    https://twitter.com/tequieremos/status/1539589127439630338?s=20&...

    Fidato
    @tequieremos
    For example, Sikhs have been over represented in army. In the 1965 Indo-Pak War, 45% among senior officers (brigadier and above) were Sikhs but 1984 Operation Blue Star changed the ethos of Indian army. There were more than 3000 Sikh desserters in about one dozen Indian units.


    Fidato
    @tequieremos
    The Commandant of the Sikh Regimental Centre in Ramgarh, Brig. S.C. Puri, and his two deputies, Col. Jagdev Singh and Col. H.S. Cheema, were attacked, leading to Brig. Puri's deaths. As a result of this mutiny, the induction of Sikhs in Indian army has been curtailed. As of now..


    Fidato
    @tequieremos
    The two homogeneous Sikh regiments - The Sikh Light Infantry and The Sikh Regiment - contains around 47 Sikh highly trained battalions that form part of the striking formations. Sikh soldiers have been awarded 4 Param Vir Chakras, 40 Maha Vir Chakras and 209 Vir Chakras.



    Fidato
    @tequieremos
    Overall, Sikhs constitute 8% of total strength in army. It is still a significant number since Sikhs are 1.4% of the total population.

    On the other hand, Muslims who form 13% of India's population are just 2% in army. There are no Muslim regiments. Their exact figure is 29,093.


    Fidato
    @tequieremos
    Out of the 2.87 lakh jawans inducted by army from 2010 to 2013, a disproportionate 44,471 came from Punjab, Haryana, and Uttaranchal. The three states provide 15% of soldiers despite their total number account for 5% of India's population. On the other hand, states of...


    Fidato
    @tequieremos
    ..Bihar, Bengal and Gujarat provided just 14% of the recruitment albiet their total number is 30% of India's population. After the Agnipath Scheme, this imbalance will further expand. The annual intake into Army is about 65 thousand soldiers per year. It will increase to...

    Fidato
    @tequieremos
    ..about 1-1.5 lakhs per year as per this model. Resultantly, the Indian Army will be Northern States heavy since the vacancies from North East, Gujrat, and Goa get undersubscribed and while Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab get oversubscribed.


    Fidato
    @tequieremos
    ·
    1h
    The Commandant of the Sikh Regimental Centre in Ramgarh, Brig. S.C. Puri, and his two deputies, Col. Jagdev Singh and Col. H.S. Cheema, were attacked, leading to Brig. Puri's deaths. As a result of this mutiny, the induction of Sikhs in Indian army has been curtailed. As of now..
    Fidato
    @tequieremos
    ·
    1h
    The two homogeneous Sikh regiments - The Sikh Light Infantry and The Sikh Regiment - contains around 47 Sikh highly trained battalions that form part of the striking formations. Sikh soldiers have been awarded 4 Param Vir Chakras, 40 Maha Vir Chakras and 209 Vir Chakras.
    Fidato
    @tequieremos
    ·
    1h
    Overall, Sikhs constitute 8% of total strength in army. It is still a significant number since Sikhs are 1.4% of the total population.

    On the other hand, Muslims who form 13% of India's population are just 2% in army. There are no Muslim regiments. Their exact figure is 29,093.
    Fidato
    @tequieremos
    ·
    1h
    Out of the 2.87 lakh jawans inducted by army from 2010 to 2013, a disproportionate 44,471 came from Punjab, Haryana, and Uttaranchal. The three states provide 15% of soldiers despite their total number account for 5% of India's population. On the other hand, states of...
    Fidato
    @tequieremos
    ·
    1h
    ..Bihar, Bengal and Gujarat provided just 14% of the recruitment albiet their total number is 30% of India's population. After the Agnipath Scheme, this imbalance will further expand. The annual intake into Army is about 65 thousand soldiers per year. It will increase to...

  • Riaz Haq

    Fidato
    @tequieremos
    ..Bihar, Bengal and Gujarat provided just 14% of the recruitment albiet their total number is 30% of India's population. After the Agnipath Scheme, this imbalance will further expand. The annual intake into Army is about 65 thousand soldiers per year. It will increase to..

    https://twitter.com/tequieremos/status/1539589175003185152?s=20&...



    Fidato
    @tequieremos
    ..about 1-1.5 lakhs per year as per this model. Resultantly, the Indian Army will be Northern States heavy since the vacancies from North East, Gujrat, and Goa get undersubscribed and while Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab get oversubscribed.



    Fidato
    @tequieremos
    2. Another important issue is training. For example, there are two Artillery Centres in India with a maximum capacity of 4000 soldiers in each. The new scheme will double the number of trainees. Gunners normally go through six months of basic military training and six months...


    Fidato
    @tequieremos
    ..as a Gunner. Agniveers would be deployed in field after six months of training. In such a time constraint environment, the training centres would yield a highly incompetent lot.

    Also, why would an Agniveer give his life when he has to retire after 4 years with no pension?


    Fidato
    @tequieremos
    3. These Agniveers will be thrown in a society where over 45 crore Indians have stopped looking for jobs. Muslims are facing an impending genocide. Three years into Modi’s first term, a research report found that 97% of all cow-related violence in India came after he was electe



    Fidato
    @tequieremos
    We already know that the RSS, which is the largest Neo Nazi group have a strong belief that Muslims and other minorities are an ‘Internal threat’ to India. RSS has an estimated 1.5 – 2 million regular participants in its nearly 57,000 shakhas across 36,293 locations nationwide...

    Fidato
    @tequieremos
    ..along with an armed dedicated militia of 600,000 Now it's militia will have well trained Agniveer soldiers to wreck havoc against the minorities.

    @MahendraForBJP
    has already made his party's intentions clear. He's asking Agniveers to defend India against Adharmis.

  • Riaz Haq

    News From India:


    New Pakistani radars, including one being installed now, close to Balakot
    Pakistan is strengthening its radar system. A TPS-77 multi role radar, that can spot not just fighters, but drones, and ballistic missiles is being installed at Cherat, about 200 from Balakot, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Pakistan has decided to place a dozen radars, in strategically significant locations, mostly in Punjab and also, in Sindh.

    Srinjoy Chowdhury


    https://www.timesnownews.com/india/new-pakistani-radars-including-o...

    Three years after Balakot, the attack by the Indian Air Force on a Jaish-e-Mohammed terror camp, Pakistan is strengthening its radar system. In February 2019, Indian fighters entered Pakistan airspace, flew all the way to Balakot, dropped its bombs on the terror camp and returned with the PAF nowhere in sight.
    A TPS-77 multi role radar, that can spot not just fighters, but drones, and ballistic missiles is being installed at Cherat, about 200 from Balakot, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where the strikes happened. Installing the Lockheed Martin radar at Cherat is part of a plan to fit these radars all over the country. Pakistan has decided to place a dozen other radars, in strategically significant locations, mostly in Punjab and also, in Sindh. some are already functional.

    * Kamra, known for its Pakistan Air Force base in Punjab.
    * Arifwala in Pakpattan, also in Punjab
    * Malir, near Karachi, Pakistan's largest city in Sindh.

    * Dera Nawab Khan in Punjab.
    * Deosai near Skardu, in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, specifically in the Gilgit Baltistan area. Skardu, of course, is an important air base.
    * Mangla, where an army corps HQ is located in the Jhelum district.
    * Pasrur in the Sialkot district of Punjab. Sialkot, is also a big city.
    * Chunian, near Kasur in Punjab.
    * Bholari, where there is a Pakistan Air Force base. It is in Sindh, not far from Karachi.
    * Pano Aqil in Sukkur, Punjab, where a cantonment is located.
    * Badin, in Sindh and,
    * Bhawalpur, where the Army's 31 Corps HQ is located.
    Of the 13, eight have already been delivered and five more are due.

  • Riaz Haq

    The State Department has made a determination approving a possible Foreign Military Sale to the Government of Pakistan of F-16 Case for Sustainment and related equipment for an estimated cost of $450 million. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency delivered the required certification notifying Congress of this possible sale today.

    https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/pakistan-f-16-cas...

    The Government of Pakistan has requested to consolidate prior F-16 sustainment and support cases to support the Pakistan Air Force F-16 fleet by reducing duplicate case activities and adding additional continued support elements. Included are U.S. Government and contractor engineering, technical, and logistics services for follow-on support of Pakistan’s F-16 fleet to include:

    Participation in F-16 Aircraft Structural Integrity Program
    Electronic Combat International Security Assistance Program
    International Engine Management Program
    Engine Component Improvement Program, and other technical coordination groups
    Aircraft and engine hardware and software modifications and support
    Aircraft and engine spare repair/return parts
    Accessories and support equipment
    Classified and unclassified software and software support
    Publications, manuals, and technical documentation
    Precision measurement, calibration, lab equipment, and technical support services
    Studies and surveys
    Other related elements of aircraft maintenance and program support.
    The proposed sale does not include any new capabilities, weapons, or munitions.

    The estimated total cost is $450 million.

    This proposed sale will support the foreign policy and national security objectives of the United States by allowing Pakistan to retain interoperability with U.S. and partner forces in ongoing counterterrorism efforts and in preparation for future contingency operations.

    The proposed sale will continue the sustainment of Pakistan’s F-16 fleet, which greatly improves Pakistan’s ability to support counterterrorism operations through its robust air-to-ground capability. Pakistan will have no difficulty absorbing these articles and services into its armed forces.

    The proposed sale of this equipment and support will not alter the basic military balance in the region.

    The principal contractor will be Lockheed Martin Corporation, Fort Worth, TX. There are no known offsets proposed in conjunction with this sale.

    Implementation of this proposed sale will not require the assignment of any additional U.S. Government or contractor representatives to Pakistan.

    There will be no adverse impact on U.S. defense readiness as a result of this proposed sale.

    This notice of a potential sale is required by law. The description and dollar value is for the highest estimated quantity and dollar value based on initial requirements. Actual dollar value will be lower depending on final requirements, budget authority, and signed sales agreement(s), if and when concluded.

    All questions regarding this proposed Foreign Military Sale should be directed to the State Department's Bureau of Political Military Affairs, Office of Congressional and Public Affairs, pm-cpa@state.gov.

  • Riaz Haq

    IAF's Balakot Disaster Two Years On

    By Kaiser Tufail, ex PAF fighter pilot

    http://kaiser-aeronaut.blogspot.com/


    Induction of the Rafale in IAF has created considerable media interest, and the impression has been created that with immediate effect, IAF will rule the Indian skies. It must, however, be remembered that it will be at least two years before the Rafale achieves anything close to Full Operational Capability[2]. PAF, on the other hand, has been flying F-16s for 37 years, including hot scenarios during the Afghan War, in local counter-insurgency operations, and the latest Operation ‘Swift Retort,’ downing half a dozen enemy fighters in these operations. The JF-17 has been fully operational for over a decade, and is expected to replace the legacy fighters over the next five years. These combat-proven PAF fighters are fully integrated with the air defence system (e.g. AWACS), and are mutually data-linked, alongside all AEW and ground sensors. Such capabilities are not achieved overnight, and it will be several years before the Rafales can be considered a threat in any real sense. Any immediate impact of the Rafale on IAF’s air power capabilities is, thus, simply overhyped. This inference, however, must not be dealt with lightly, as there is a distinct possibility of the Indian Prime Minister using the Rafale for a false-flag operation in a surreptitious manner, to prove his point that, “with the Rafale, the results would have been different,” from those of 27 February 2019.

  • Riaz Haq

    EurAsian Times reached out to experts to understand if the F-16’s maintenance and American support for this Pakistani aircraft could change the status quo.

    https://eurasiantimes.com/upgraded-f-16-fighters-for-pakistan-is-in...

    According to IAF Veteran Squadron Leader (retd) Vijainder Thakur, “It is likely that the maintenance support package provided by the US will include upgrades that allow PAF F-16s to carry more advanced weapons and sensors. While I do not believe that the package would significantly alter the balance of power, it will most certainly allow the PAF to maintain its deterrence capability against the IAF.”

    There has also been an overarching debate regarding F-16s vs. Rafales in the region. The acquisition of Rafales was seen in Pakistan as an attempt to challenge the F-16’s might and deter the PAF.

    General (Air Commodore) Kizer Tufar (Kaiser Tufail), a Pakistani veteran (fighter pilot), had said, “IAF aircraft cannot be compared with the combination used by the Pakistani Air Force: F-16 and AIM-120 missiles. The Indian Air Force is aware of these restrictions, so they decided to place an order to buy the Rafale from France.”


    Rafale fighter jet is a twin-engine, 4.5th generation fighter aircraft that can operate from ground bases and aircraft carriers. On the other hand, the US-based Lockheed Martin developed F-16, a fourth-generation, single-engine supersonic multirole fighter aircraft. The two aircraft are almost similar regarding the dimension of length.

    Given that they can carry more armaments than the F-16s, the Rafales would have an advantage in an encounter between the two. However, the F-16s have a slight advantage over the Rafales regarding striking power. Rafales only have a range of 3700 kilometers compared to the F-16s’ 4220 kilometers.

    “The US has always relied on Pakistan due to its strategic location as it is the gateway to Afghanistan or the Middle East and Central Asian republics. Its importance as a launch pad can’t be reduced – which Pakistan also is equally aware of. And, in the US, a strong pro-Pakistan lobby benefits due to various deals and aid to Pakistan – they get paid – by corrupt Pakistani officials and Generals.

    The present F-16 deal is also to be looked at from that angle. Overall it will not have much impact on IAF except for irritant value. Numerically and qualitatively, IAF is much better placed,” Air Vice Marshal Pranay Sinha (retd) told EurAsian Times.

    The US decision comes when arms sales worldwide are booming owing to newer threat perceptions. Western officials have debated how to wean India off its dependence on Russian armament. However, India has refused to join the West in isolating Russia.

    Some experts contend that the US decision is based on a business requirement. According to Group Captain Johnson Chacko, KC (retd), “Arms transactions worldwide are business oriented. Money matters. The US has supplied F-16s to Pakistan, so it is honor bound to maintain them.

    In addition, the arms industry gets money while Pakistan holds the debt. We cannot reduce it to the F16 vs. Rafale debate, as the men behind the machines matter.

    We demonstrated that against USAF in the first COPE India exercise held at Gwalior, where USAF F-15s were overwhelmed by what they felt was inferior Russian aircraft flown by IAF.”

    It is pertinent to mention that the Indian Air Force has been undertaking a rapid modernization drive. It is dominated by Russian heavy-duty fighters like the Su-30MKI and MiG-29s, combat-hardened Mirage 2000s and Jaguars, and Light Aircraft like the Tejas, besides the cutting-edge Rafale fighters.

    J-10C
    A Chinese J-10C. (via Twitter)
    The Pakistan Air Force, on the other hand, is dominated by the F-16s, the brand-new J-10Cs, the JF-17, and Mirages, among others.

    Before the J-10C fighters were transferred to Pakistan by China earlier this year, military analysts asserted that the purchase underlined the need to counter India’s Rafale aircraft and provide a strong deterrent against the Indian Air Force.

  • Riaz Haq

    Sidhant Sibal
    @sidhant
    US's F-16 package to Pakistan "predicated on US interest associated with our defence partnership with Pak, wch is focused on counter terror or nuclear security as Sec. Austin made it clear to Min. Singh, it doesnt includes any upgrades", says US Asst Sec of Defense Dr. Ely Ratner

    https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1572991990454591488?s=20&t=z...


    -----------

    US has limited security partnership with Pakistan, says Pentagon official
    Written By: Sidhant Sibal WION

    https://www.wionews.com/world/us-has-limited-security-partnership-w...

    The Pentagon has said that it has a "limited security partnership" with Pakistan, key comments in the backdrop of the recent Washington announcement of a $450 million package for Islamabad to sustain its F16 fleet. The Biden government's decision, which was announced earlier this month reverses the decision of the previous Trump govt and helps Pakistan sustain its F16 programme.

    Speaking to a selected group of reporters, US Asst Sec of Defense Dr Ely S Ratner explained that the US has been engaging with its Indian counterparts on the issue "both in advance of the announcement.." and "during the " mini 2+2 that happened earlier this month in Delhi.

    Dr Ely Ratner, along with Donald Lu, Assistant Secretary of State (South and Central Asian Affairs) were in Delhi for the India-U.S.A 2+2 Inter-sessional Dialogue with Indian diplomat Vani Rao. Rao is the Additional Secretary (Americas) in the Ministry of External Affairs.

    Ratner said, "It is important to be transparent as we could with Indian counterparts both in advance and during the decision and good opportunity for health exchange on both the US rationale for its limited security partnership with Pakistan and good opportunity to hear India's concern about that".

    In the aftermath of the US announcement on F16, US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and Indian Defence minister Rajnath Singh spoke to each other in which the latter raised New Delhi's concerns. The package doesn't include any upgrades.

    In response to the question, the Pentagon official also clarified that the package was not "designed as a message to India, as it relates to its relation to Russia."

    He pointed out that the "decision inside US govt around F16 issue was made predicated on US interest associated with our defence partnership with Pakistan which is primarily focused on counter-terrorism and nuclear security". US comments come even as Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif is in New York.

    India and US defence ties have increased in the past few years significantly. In 2016, the defence relationship was designated as a Major Defence Partnership (MDP). Several defence agreements have been signed in recent years. These include, Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Association (August 2016); Memorandum of Intent between the U.S. Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) and the Indian Defense Innovation Organization – Innovation for Defense Excellence (2018); Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (September 2018); Industrial Security Agreement (December 2019); Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (October 2020).

  • Riaz Haq

    Suhasini Haidar
    @suhasinih
    India, Pakistan both partners of U.S. with different points of emphasis: Biden administration
    "We look to both as partners, because we do have in many cases shared values...shared interests." Said State dept spokesperson

    https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/india-pakistan-both-par...

    https://twitter.com/suhasinih/status/1574601690581389313?s=20&t...

    -----------

    India and Pakistan are both partners of the U.S. with different points of emphasis, the Biden administration said on September 26, a day after visiting External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar questioned the rationale behind the latest American F-16 security assistance to Islamabad.

    Referring to the argument made by the U.S. that F-16 sustenance package is to fight terrorism, Mr. Jaishankar had said everybody knows where and against whom F-16 fighter jets are used. "You're not fooling anybody by saying these things," he said in response to a question during an interaction with Indian-Americans.

    "We don't view our relationship with Pakistan, and on the other hand, we don't view our relationship with India as in relation to one another. These are both partners of ours with different points of emphasis in each," State Department Spokesperson Ned Price told reporters at his daily news conference.

    "We look to both as partners, because we do have in many cases shared values. We do have in many cases shared interests. And the relationship we have with India stands on its own. The relationship we have with Pakistan stands on its own," he said.



    Early this month, the Biden administration approved a $450 million F-16 fighter jet fleet sustainment programme to Pakistan, reversing the decision of the previous Trump administration to suspend military aid to Islamabad for providing safe havens for the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network.

    "We also want to do everything we can to see to it that these neighbours have relations with one another that are as constructive as can be possible. So that's another point of emphasis," Mr. Price said in response to a question.

    Responding to another question, Mr. Price said it is "not in Pakistan's interest to see instability and violence in Afghanistan".

    "The support for the people of Afghanistan is something we discuss regularly with our Pakistani partners; our efforts to improve the lives and livelihoods and humanitarian conditions of the Afghan people, and to see to it that the Taliban live up to the commitments that they have made," he added.

    Pakistan is implicated in many of these same commitments: the counterterrorism commitments, commitments to safe passage, commitments to the citizens of Afghanistan, Mr. Price said. "The unwillingness or the inability on the part of the Taliban to live up to these commitments would have significant implications for Pakistan as well".

    "So, for that reason, we do share a number of interests with Pakistan regarding its neighbour," Mr. Price said.



    The United States, he noted, has been intently focused on the devastation that has resulted in the loss of life resulting from the torrential floods that have devastated large areas of Pakistan.

    "We have provided tens of millions of dollars in relief for these floods. The Secretary today will have additional details on further US assistance for the Pakistani people, in light of this humanitarian emergency that Pakistanis are facing," he added.

  • Riaz Haq

    Hassan Akbar
    @hass_akbr
    Shocking coming from a country that has been on the receiving end of US generosity what with the CAATSA waiver. Can’t believe India thinks it can dictate US foreign policy while selling Washington baloony about is own independence when it comes to Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/hass_akbr/status/1574369893797220353?s=20&t...


    "You're Not Fooling Anybody...": S Jaishankar On US' F-16 Deal With Pak
    "It's a relationship that has neither ended up serving Pakistan well nor serving the American interests," S Jaishankar said at an event in Washington


    https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/youre-not-fooling-anybody...

  • Riaz Haq

    “This proposed sale ($450 million F-16 package) will support the foreign policy and national security objectives of the United States by allowing Pakistan to retain interoperability with US and partner forces in ongoing counter-terrorism efforts and in preparation for future contingency operations,” says the DSCA.

    https://www.flightglobal.com/defence/us-clears-sustainment-package-...

    The US government has approved a $450 million sustainment package for Lockheed Martin F-16s operated by the Pakistan air force.

    The proposed package lists several items, including the F-16’s structural integrity programme, the international engine management programme, spare parts, and other services and equipment related to the type, according to the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA).

    “This proposed sale will support the foreign policy and national security objectives of the United States by allowing Pakistan to retain interoperability with US and partner forces in ongoing counter-terrorism efforts and in preparation for future contingency operations,” says the DSCA.

    “The proposed sale will continue the sustainment of Pakistan’s F-16 fleet, which greatly improves Pakistan’s ability to support counter-terrorism operations through its robust air-to-ground capability. Pakistan will have no difficulty absorbing these articles and services into its armed forces.”

    The package does not, however, include new capabilities, weapons, or munitions.

    The lack of capability improvements could reflect Washington DC’s increasingly warm ties with Pakistan’s archrival India.

    Moreover, Pakistan has become closer to Beijing in recent decades, including the joint development of the Chengdu/Pakistan Aeronautical Complex JF-17. Pakistan is also the first international operator of the Chengdu J-10C, which in Chinese service performs similar missions to the F-16.

    Cirium fleets data indicates that Pakistan operates 57 F-16A/Bs and 18 F-16C/Ds, with an average age of 30.8 years.

  • Riaz Haq

    The US state department spokesman Ned Price has put External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar on the mat as regards the latter’s remarks questioning the raison d’etre of the US-Pakistan relationship.

    By M.K. Bhadrakumar

    https://www.newsclick.in/india-can-live-US-pakistan-makeover

    Yet, some national dailies have rushed to eagerly attribute it to the US displeasure over India’s stance on the conflict in Ukraine. One daily rather churlishly advised the government, “As Delhi demonstrates “strategic autonomy” to engage with every side — Quad one week, and Russia and China the next at the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) in Samarkand — and work around Western sanctions to buy oil from Russia, and keep friends in all camps, it may have to come to terms that others in world play the same game.”

    In this unseemly hurry to link Ned’s remarks with India’s strategic autonomy, what these commentators overlook is that the US spokesman was speaking on a special day when the Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto was visiting the state department at the invitation of the Secretary of State Antony Blinken — and on top of it, the two countries were commemorating the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations.

    Indeed, it is another matter that Jaishankar’s remarks were not only unwarranted — casting aspersions on the US-Pakistan relationship — but untimely, and perhaps, even provocative. The only charitable explanation could be that Jaishankar was grandstanding as a consummate politician before an audience of Indian-Americans, with an eye on his “core constituency” in India. The mitigating factor, of course, is that he has only given back to the Americans in their own coin, who consider it their prerogative to butt into other countries’ external relations with gratuitous comments — India’s with Russia, for instance.

    Ned Price’s remarks have all the elements of a policy statement. He said: “We don’t view our relationship with Pakistan, and … our relationship with India as in relation to one another. These are both partners of ours with different points of emphasis in each. We look at both as partners, because we do have in many cases shared values. We do have in many cases shared interests. And the relationship we have with India stands on its own. The relationship we have with Pakistan stands on its own. We also want to do everything we can to see to it that these neighbours have relations with one another that are as constructive as can be possible. And so that’s another point of emphasis.”

    What stands out at the most obvious level is that Price reiterated the US policy in the recent decades since the Cold War ended to “de-hyphenate” Washington’s relationships with India and Pakistan while also promoting a normal relationship between the two South Asian rivals who are not on talking terms. Price pointed out that the two relationships have “different points of emphasis in each.”

    Interestingly, Price equated India with Pakistan as partner countries with which the US has “in many cases shared values” and “in many cases shared interests.” This needs to be understood properly. Washington has taken note of Pakistan’s objection over the prioritisation of India in the US’ regional policies in South Asia in the past.

    This shift removes a major hurdle in the trajectory of US-Pakistan relationship and is necessitated by a variety of factors following the humiliating defeat that the US suffered in Afghanistan. Here, security considerations certainly constitute one key factor.

    The killing of the al-Qaeda chief Ayman Al-Zawahiri was only possible due to the help from Pakistan. Equally, Afghan situation remains dangerous and the US cannot turn its back on what’s happening out there. The US’ dependence on Pakistani intelligence has only increased.

  • Riaz Haq

    Frank O'Donnell
    @frank11285
    “Modi laid the foundation stone for the Deesa airfield in Gujarat which will be a forward Air Force base.”

    https://twitter.com/frank11285/status/1583224834896515073?s=20&...

    ----------

    https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/new-airbase-coming-up-in-guj...


    PM launches ‘Mission DefSpace’, an ambitious effort to develop innovative solutions for the three Services in the space domain through Indian industry and start-ups
    In an ambitious effort to develop innovative solutions for the three Services in the space domain through the Indian industry and start-ups, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday launched the ‘Mission DefSpace’ at the ongoing DefExpo. He also released the fourth defence indigenisation list which bars import of 101 items after certain timelines.

    “Space technology is an example of what security will mean for any strong nation in the future. Various challenges in this area have been reviewed and identified by the three Services. We have to work fast to solve them,” Mr. Modi said. Under Mission Def-Space, 75 challenges are being opened to get innovative solutions, based on the defence requirements in the space domain, the Defence Ministry said.

    Stating that space technology is shaping new definitions of India’s generous space diplomacy, giving rise to new possibilities, the Prime Minister stated, “Many African countries and many other small countries are benefiting from this.”

    Real-time access to data
    There are more than 60 developing countries with whom India is sharing its space science. “The South Asia satellite is an effective example of this. By next year, 10 Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries will also get real-time access to India’s satellite data. Even developed countries like Europe and America are using our satellite data,“ he stated.

    Explaining the significance, Lt. Gen. A.K. Bhatt (retd.), Director General of the Indian Space Association (ISpA), said this was the first time an opportunity was being given to the private industry in the defence space sector. “Defence space challenges, which have been worked with the Services, Ministry of Defence (MoD), along with private industry and the ISpA, are primarily aimed at making a range of defence applications to enhance the capability of the three Services,” he stated.

    One senior official explained that the effort is not meant to develop offensive capabilities in space but to build technology enablers for the Services.

    As part of efforts to boost the domestic defence industry and promote defence exports, the Defence Ministry had earlier promulgated first, second and third Positive Indigenisation Lists, comprising 310 items on August 21, 2020, May 31, 2021 and April 7, 2022 respectively. The items on the lists cannot be imported by the Services and should be sourced from within the country.

    The fourth list has been prepared by the MoD after several rounds of consultations with all stakeholders, including the industry, the Ministry said in a statement. “It lays special focus on equipment/systems, which are being developed and likely to translate into firm orders in the next five to 10 years,”

    Like the first three lists, import substitution of ammunition which is a recurring requirement has been given special focus, the Ministry stated.

    The items listed in the fourth list will provide ample visibility and opportunity to the domestic defence industry for understanding the trend and futuristic needs of the armed forces and create requisite research and development and manufacturing capacity within the country. the Ministry added.

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan Displays India’s MiG-21 Bison’s Tail Shot Down By PAF F-16 Fighter Jet At Its Defense Expo — Reports

    https://eurasiantimes.com/pakistan-displays-indias-mig-21-bisons-ta...

    By
    Ashish Dangwal
    November 17, 2022


    The tail section of a MiG-21 of the Indian Air Force is on display at IDEAS-22 that was shot down on February 27, 2019, during Operation Swift Retort, by a Pakistani F-16. New Delhi and Islamabad made different statements about the event’s occurrence at the time.

    -----
    Meanwhile, the J-17C’s informative photos, one of which also shows the cockpit, are being presented at the event. A video module of the aircraft is also showcased at PAF Pavilion during IDEAS 2022.

    Pakistan’s JF-17C, also known as Block 3, is the latest version of the J-17 aircraft. The Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC) of China and the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) collaborated to develop the medium-sized multi-role JF-17 ‘Thunder’ fighter aircraft for the Pakistan Air Force.

    The service has received more than 100 Thunder jets since 2007.

    The JF-17 C model is thought to have taken to the skies for the first time in December 2019. The PL-10E, which China describes as its most advanced air-to-air missile, was also spotted being carried by the JF-17 Block 3 in 2021.

    The JF-17C has notable upgraded capabilities, such as Missile Approach Warning Systems (MAWS), Wide Angle Smart HUD, more Chin Hardpoints, and an integrated EW suite.

    Another photograph that has gained popularity on the internet is thought to be the finest image of a PAF JF-17C – dubbed Block 3 – so far.

    The DEPO organizes IDEAS every two years. Since its beginning in 2000, IDEAS has established itself as a worldwide staging ground for defense manufacturers, business owners, R&D professionals, finance experts, and top-level officials.

    However, in terms of space, reservations, exhibitors, and delegates from domestic and international countries, this year’s event has reportedly eclipsed all records.

    The defense expo was inaugurated by Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari at the city’s expo center in Karachi. IDEAS 2022 officially started on November 15 and will last through November 18.

    In his remarks at the occasion, FM Bhutto-Zardari discussed the current coalition government’s difficulties while noting that it succeeded despite the economic downturn. About 300 exhibitors are showing off their latest products from 32 nations.

    This exhibition is attended by about 500 national and international delegates, including high-level delegations from friendly nations.

    Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif tweeted that the nation’s defense industry is meeting the demands of the technological era, and he emphasized that IDEAS had grown into a significant platform in the global defense market.

    He stated that this year’s event’s ‘Arms for Peace’ theme represented Pakistan’s commitment to peace and stability. Sharif added that IDEAS had developed into a platform that showcased Pakistan’s expanding impact in the global defense market.

    “Good to see that our defense sector is catering to demands of the tech era,” he added.

    Meanwhile, the Pakistan Air Force is presenting its aerospace, avionics, cyberspace, and other related technologies at its pavilion. The National Aerospace Science and Technology Park (NASTP) is the PAF pavilion’s biggest attraction.

    It is a Pakistan Air Force project to promote industry-academia linkage to provide an ecosystem of critical elements required to nurture design, research, development, and innovation in the aviation, space, and cyber sectors.

    ---

    Speaking at the event, the Air Chief stated that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) is dedicated to creating advanced technologies in the nation to deliver the most cutting-edge, efficient, and impenetrable aerial defense.

  • Riaz Haq


    Pravin Sawhney
    @PravinSawhney
    For Pakistani friends:
    1. Under CPEC, you have excellent opportunity to enter digital & AI age for prosperity.
    2. Given deep military ties with PLA, Pak can adopt to new character of war quickly.
    3. Definition of deterrence has changed. Cruise missiles replaced by HGVs!

    https://twitter.com/PravinSawhney/status/1593618020026372096?s=20&a...

  • Riaz Haq

    Why India and China Are Fighting in the Himalayas

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/01/opinion/india-china-himalayas.html

    By Ajai Shukla

    Mr. Shukla is a strategic affairs analyst and former Indian Army officer.

    Soldiers from China and India, nuclear-armed Asian neighbors, have been clashing on their disputed border with an alarming frequency owing to the rise of aggressive nationalisms in President Xi Jinping’s China and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s India. Insecurity is also growing in New Delhi and Beijing over intensified construction of border infrastructure by both countries. And mutual suspicion is deepening as China contemplates the increasing strategic cooperation between the United States and India as competition and conflict between Washington and Beijing intensifies.

    ---------------

    Throughout the 1960s and the ’70s, India’s military, traumatized by China’s comprehensive victory and fearful of setting off another conflagration, deployed well to the rear of the border, which was covered only by long-range patrols. In the early 1980s, the Indian military leadership came to be dominated by a new generation of bolder commanders and New Delhi greenlighted a move forward, much closer to the Line of Actual Control.

    ----------

    Between 1989 and 2005, the Indian and Chinese sides had 15 meetings and no blood was shed for 30 years. After the Gandhi-Deng meeting, the two sides signed an agreement in 1993 for restraint and joint action on the disputed border whenever Indian and Chinese patrols differed on the alignment of the LAC. It was followed by four more pacts, aimed at keeping the peace on the border.

    Minor Chinese intrusions in Ladakh in 2008, 2013 and 2014 were resolved through dialogue. A major escalation followed in June 2017 in the Doklam Plateau in the Himalayas, where India, China and Bhutan meet. The Chinese military was building a road into the area, which is claimed by both China and Bhutan.

    -------------

    The plateau is close to “Chicken’s Neck,” a narrow corridor of Indian territory that connects mainland India to its northeastern states, an area the size of Oregon, where 45 million people live. India saw the Chinese incursion and construction as a dangerous move toward control over the Doklam Plateau, and it reawakened New Delhi’s fear of China cutting off northeastern India in a war by taking over Chicken’s Neck.

    ------------

    For New Delhi, China’s new aggressiveness presents a clear dilemma: Should India continue to build strategic and military relations with the United States and the partnership of America, Australia, Japan and India — known as the Quad — even though Beijing has made it clear it sees the Quad as an anti-China grouping? While the Quad, and its more overtly militaristic version, the AUKUS (Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States) alliance, constitute a viable deterrent to China in the maritime Indo-Pacific theater, India is the only partner that confronts China on its land border.

    From New Delhi’s perspective, the Chinese military aggression on the disputed border is the price India is paying for joining hands with the Western alliance. New Delhi takes pains to portray its independence, even turning down an American offer of assistance against China at the time of the 2020 intrusions in Ladakh. New Delhi has restricted Indo-U.S. cooperation to the realm of intelligence and privately asked Washington to lower the rhetoric over China. This is unlikely to change.

    Within India, Mr. Modi’s strongman image has taken a dent from the confrontation with China. His insistence that India has not lost territory to China provides ammunition to his supporters, but the numbers of his blind supporters have dwindled. The Chinese military’s most recent aggression shows that Beijing continues to fuel the confrontation, and relations between India and China face a negative spiral without a predictable end. The political cost to Mr. Modi, it seems, will eventually be decided in Beijing as much as in New Delhi.

  • Riaz Haq

    #India, #Pakistan came close to a #nuclear war, claims ex US Sec of State Mike Pompeo. His Indian counterpart Sushma Swaraj called, told him that Pakistan was preparing for a nuclear attack after #Balakot strike in February 2019 & India ready to retaliate

    https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-pakistan-came-close-to...


    Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has claimed that he was “awakened” to speak to his then Indian counterpart Sushma Swaraj who told him that Pakistan was preparing for a nuclear attack after the Balakot surgical strike in February 2019 and India is preparing its own escalatory response.

    In his latest book Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love that hit the stores on Tuesday, Mr. Pompeo says the incident took place when he was in Hanoi for the U.S.-North Korea Summit on February 27-28 and his team worked overnight with both New Delhi and Islamabad to avert this crisis.

  • Riaz Haq

    Sushma Swaraj "Wasn't Important Player": 5 Top Quotes From Mike Pompeo Book

    https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/mike-pompeos-book-never-give-an-inc...

    Mike Pompeo's "Never Give an Inch," his memoir of his time as Donald Trump's top diplomat and earlier CIA chief, was published on Tuesday.

    Former US President Donald Trump's top diplomat Mike Pompeo, in his just-published memoir, has claimed that India and Pakistan came close to nuclear war in 2019 and that US intervention prevented escalation.
    Here are the top five points Mike Pompeo made his new book:
    Mr Pompeo claimed he was awakened some time in 2019 to speak to his then Indian counterpart Sushma Swaraj who told him that Pakistan was preparing for a nuclear attack in the wake of the Balakot surgical strike and India is preparing its own response.
    "I do not think the world properly knows just how close the India-Pakistan rivalry came to spilling over into a nuclear conflagration in February 2019. The truth is, I don't know precisely the answer either; I just know it was too close," Mr Pompeo wrote.
    The former US official said he spoke to Ms Swaraj who "believed the Pakistanis had begun to prepare their nuclear weapons for a strike. India, he (sic) informed me, was contemplating its own escalation". "I asked him to do nothing and give us a minute to sort things out... No other nation could have done what we did that night to avoid a horrible outcome," he wrote.
    Mr Pompeo said Pakistan "probably enabled" the attack on security forces in Pulwama, which triggered the Balakot strike, said he spoke to "the actual leader of Pakistan," then army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa, in an allusion to the weakness of civilian governments.
    In comments critical of Sushma Swaraj, Mr Pompeo wrote, "On the Indian side, my original counterpart was not an important player on the Indian foreign policy team. Instead, I worked much more closely with National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, a close and trusted confidante of Prime Minister Narendra Modi".

  • Riaz Haq

    The Wire
    @thewire_in

    After S. Jaishankar said that India cannot pick a fight with China because the latter has a bigger economy, military veterans have accused the Narendra Modi government of having a "defeatist attitude" and "bowing down to a bully".

    https://thewire.in/security/veterans-criticise-jaishankar-china


    New Delhi: After external affairs minister S. Jaishankar said that India cannot pick a fight with China because the latter has a bigger economy, military veterans have accused the Narendra Modi government of having a “defeatist attitude” and “bowing down to a bully”.

    In a podcast with ANI editor-in-chief Smita Prakash on Wednesday, Jaishankar said: “Look, they (China) are the bigger economy. What am I going to do? As a smaller economy, I am going to pick up a fight with the bigger economy? It is not a question of being reactionary, it’s a question of common sense….”

    He added that India and China have an agreement not to bring large number of troops to the border, and asked if India should violate that agreement.

    Former Navy chief Arun Prakash, a veteran of the 1971 war, tweeted: “If relative size of economies is seen as arbiter of int’l relations, how come nations like Cuba, N Korea & Iran thumb their noses at the USA or Vietnam at China? India, as a democracy, nuclear weapon state & significant economic & mil power must stand firm against hegemony.”



    Major General Shail Jha (retired) tweeted: “Mr Jaishankar should know that its not India but China which is picking the fight.”



    The veteran added: “Economy or no economy, if we bow down to a bully, we are abandoning our self-respect. Is it acceptable? What a shame. And the guy is being hailed as the greatest FM. It’s cowardice.”



    Speaking to The Telegraph, a former lieutenant general said Jaishankar’s statement was “shocking” and was reminiscent of “unconditional surrender”.

    “What happened to the so-called muscular nationalism that this government projects in election speeches? Modi’s self-declared muscular nationalism has now capitulated to Chinese aggression and bullying,” the veteran said.

    Speaking about Chinese intrusions across the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the veteran told the newspaper that instead of “asking the Chinese troops to retreat”, the “New India under Modiji agreed to create buffer zones within Indian territories in eastern Ladakh as part of the disengagement agreement, thus ceding further territory to China



    A retired colonel said Jaishankar’s “defeatist statement” spoke volumes about Modi’s China policy. “Where is Mr 56-inch Modi’s muscular nationalism when it comes to China?” the former colonel asked.

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistanis will never give in to a bully like India.

    Pakistan will respond with "Operation Swift Retort" if Modi and his fellow Islamophobes are foolish enough to attack Pakistan again.


    Listen to your Indian Professor Ashok Swain who tweeted this today:


    Ashok Swain
    @ashoswai
    Never let a regime fool you in the name of nationalism - If you do it once, you have to keep doing it. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-kashmir-pakistan-airstrike...


    https://twitter.com/ashoswai/status/1630209788075286528?s=20

    --------------

    Satellite images show buildings still standing at Indian bombing site

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-kashmir-pakistan-airstrike...


    Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Project at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, who has 15 years’ experience in analyzing satellite images of weapons sites and systems, confirmed that the high-resolution satellite picture showed the structures in question.

    “The high-resolution images don’t show any evidence of bomb damage,” he said. Lewis viewed three other high-resolution Planet Labs pictures of the site taken within hours of the image provided to Reuters.

    The Indian government has not publicly disclosed what weapons were used in the strike.

    Government sources told Reuters last week that 12 Mirage 2000 jets carrying 1,000 kg (2,200 lbs) bombs carried out the attack. On Tuesday, a defense official said the aircraft used the 2,000-lb Israeli-made SPICE 2000 glide bomb in the strike.

    A warhead of that size is meant to destroy hardened targets such as concrete shelters.

    Lewis and Dave Schmerler, a senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation studies who also analyses satellite images, said weapons that large would have caused obvious damage to the structures visible in the picture.

  • Riaz Haq

    Peter@PeterSMagnusson

    Replying to @DevanaUkrainemeaning no disrespect, but … the f-16 has zero air-to-air kills when piloted by the US, unless you count no-fly-zone enforcements (7 kills). UA might want some Israeli pilots (over 50), or Pakistan, the only air force that’s shot down multiple Russian fighters since ww2 (10!).

    https://twitter.com/PeterSMagnusson/status/1636575394630385664?s=20

  • Riaz Haq

    The combat statistics for all the aircraft currently in useF22 Raptor, Fighter Flights, Fighter Jets | 101 KommentareWe’ve lately been talking about aircraft which have gone for combat several times. Now we’ve been thinking of some statistics of various fighter aircraft in use. Below you can find the details – but first of all we would like to show you an overview, created by Wojtek Korsak, based on this article. Thanks for that Wojtek. Click enlarge. If it is still to small: Press and hold Ctrl and scroll up with your mouse.
    The Format is: 
    [Name of aircraft] Air-to-air kills – Air-to-air losses – Losses to ground fire
    [Name of conflict aircraft was used in][Nation that used aircraft in said conflict]Air-to-air kills – Air-to-air losses – Losses to ground fire

    Aircraft which were destroyed on the ground are not included in this analysis, because any plane can get destroyed on the ground no matter how good it or its pilot is.

    F-16 Falcon 76-1-5
    Gulf War (USA) 0-0-3
    No-Fly Zones (USA) 2-0-0
    Bosnia (USA) 4-0-1
    Kosovo (USA) 1-0-1
    Kosovo (Netherlands) 1-0-0
    Kosovo (Portugal, Belgium, Denmark, Turkey) 0-0-0
    Afghanistan (USA, Netherlands, Denmark, Norway) 0-0-0
    Iraq (USA) 0-0-0
    Syrian border clashes 1979-1986 (Israel) 6-0-0
    Operation Opera (Israel) 0-0-0
    Lebanon War (1982) (Israel) 44-0-0
    Lebanon War (2006) (Israel) 3-0-0
    Intifada (2000-present) (Israel) 0-0-0
    Soviet-Afghan War (Pakistan) 10-0-0
    Border clashes (Pakistan) 1-0-0
    Kargil War (Pakistan) 0-0-0
    Northwest border wars (Pakistan) 0-0-0
    Aegean Sea clashes (Turkey) 1-1-0
    Venezuelan Coup 1992 (Venezuela) 3-0-0

    https://migflug.com/jetflights/the-combat-statistics-for-all-the-ai...