Fitch Solutions, a global company focused on credit, economic, and political research, says in its latest report that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will drive Pakistan's construction industry in the next decade, as the risks associated with CPEC projects recede. Fitch forecasts that the real annual growth rate of Pakistan's construction industry will average 8.9% over the next 5 years. "We will adjust our forecasts to account for possible positive ripple effects across the economy, including the construction industry, in the event an IMF bailout is secured", the report adds.
Fitch Solutions' report titled "Industry Trend Analysis - CPEC to Remain a Primary Driver of Pakistan's Construction Industry" says: "We expect debt concerns surrounding CPEC projects to ease after financial details are released. In addition, we believe political risks associated with CPEC projects have diminished since the 2018 Pakistani general election. These factors will reduce overall risk profile of CPEC projects."
The Fitch report acknowledges the completion of eleven CPEC projects termed "early harvest". It says that despite major media and political scrutiny regarding CPEC, this progress on projects highlights Beijing’s improving track record in project execution and its commitment to infrastructure development in Pakistan. As a result of CPEC progress, a total of 3,240MW of capacity has been added to the country’s national grid, constituting over 11% of total installed capacity in Pakistan. Also highlighted in the report is the 392 kilometer Multan to Sukkur section of the Peshawar-Karachi motorway, a key CPEC project which is over 80% complete and is slated to finish by August this year.
Fitch believes political risks associated with CPEC projects have diminished. "Previously, we noted that the transition in power from Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) to Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) posed a downside risk to the Pakistani construction industry as new Prime Minister Imran Khan pledged to review Chinese-backed projects, which could potentially have led to project delays and cancellations. However, the political situation in Pakistan has since stabilized and Prime Minister Imran Khan has demonstrated willingness to cooperate with China on multiple issues including CPEC. As such, we are in the view that downside risks stemming from political uncertainty are diminishing, and bilateral projects spearheaded by CPEC, will receive a boost in terms of policy implementation and project continuity," maintained the report.
In another recent report, Fitch's competitor Moody's has acknowledged that rermittances from Pakistan diaspora rose by 10% year on year to $10.71 billion in the first half of fiscal 2019, while goods imports slowed sharply to around 3% year on year as non-energy imports contracted.
Moody's expects "the current-account deficit to narrow to 4.7% of GDP in fiscal 2019 and to 4.2% in fiscal 2020 from 6.1% in fiscal 2018, it will remain sizable and wider than in 2013-16, driving Pakistan’s external financing needs. The government has secured $12 billion in financing from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – in each case amounting to $6 billion and divided equally between deposits and deferred oil payments – which is likely to largely cover the country’s net financing needs for fiscal 2019".
Construction industry is a major driver of economies. The sector creates new jobs, builds housing and infrastructure, drives economic growth, and provides solutions to address social, climate and energy challenges, according to the World Economic Forum. The construction industry has important linkages with other sectors such as cement, steel, energy, furniture, household appliances, etc. The construction industry's impact on GDP and economic development goes well beyond the direct contribution of construction activities.
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Riaz Haq
For the critics of CPEC projcts' hiring practices, here's a Washington Post story of what Chinese workers have done in India:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/23/AR2...
Clad in blue overalls, 1,600 Chinese supervisors, technicians and other laborers work at the 2,000-acre site. The $1.7 billion factory, which also relies on Chinese technology, employs 5,000 Indian workers.
Skilled Chinese workers are helping India expand its infrastructure at a frenetic pace, even as the two Asian giants compete for economic dominance.
Their presence in a nation of more than a billion people with staggering unemployment may appear incongruent. But the government says Indian workers lack the technical skilled needed to transform the country into a 21st-century economic powerhouse.
Until the gap is bridged, companies are relying on the expertise of Chinese workers to build mega infrastructure projects. Chinese workers have worked on ports, highways, power and steel plants in India. Chinese equipment and expertise have also been used in a crude oil refinery, a cable-supported bridge, the telecommunication networks and even the glass facade of the new airport terminal in New Delhi.
"India may be an IT superpower and producing thousands of doctors, lawyers and MBAs every year. But the biggest gap is in the availability of skilled electricians, carpenters, welders, mechanics and masons who can build mega infrastructure projects," said Raghav Gupta, president at Technopak, a consultancy that released a report on skill development last year. "Most of these workers have to be trained on the job. And that often delays the projects and makes it more expensive."
As the center of economic gravity shifts from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean, analysts say, the world's two fastest growing economies will transfer even more technology and skills.
Fears of displacement
The Chinese workers in labor-surplus India prompted an outcry last year, and India clamped down by making visa rules stricter. About 25,000 workers had to leave dozens of projects midway and return to China because they were on business visas and not worker visas. Construction at 14 power plants was affected.
"We have no problems if . . . Chinese workers skilled in specialized functions come to India. We just don't want them to displace Indian workers by doing the jobs that Indians can do," said G. K. Pillai, India's home secretary, who said there are a little over 15,000 Chinese laborers in India now.
Diplomatic relations between the two nations, who have fought a war and have lingering territorial disputes, have remained testy. In recent years, Indian officials have expressed concerns about China's close ties with Pakistan, India's arch rival.
------------
The Chinese live in a row of air-conditioned pre-fab rooms and have Chinese cooks. Some say they find the Indian heat unbearable; others complain that the Internet speed is too slow for streaming Chinese movies. Sometimes, they go into the villages for an under-the-tree haircut or for the locally brewed toddy.
Feb 6, 2019
Riaz Haq
JPMorgan, CLSA vie for $2 billion #Pakistan #power sale of National Power Parks Management Co., state-owned firm that owns and runs #LNG-fired 1,230-megawatt Haveli Bahadur Shah plant and the 1,223-megawatt Balloki plant. #Privatization https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-14/jpmorgan-clsa-sa... via @technology
JPMorgan Chase & Co., CLSA and Credit Suisse Group AG are among foreign banks pitching for a role on Pakistan’s biggest privatization in over a decade, which could raise around $2 billion, people with knowledge of the matter said.
The government’s sale of two LNG-fired power plants could draw interest from Chinese and Middle Eastern investors, one of the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private. Pakistan received about 10 bids from groups seeking a financial advisory role and expects to pick banks by the end of March, another person said.
Citigroup Inc. and Standard Chartered Plc made their own separate proposals, while Lazard Ltd. is pitching with Pakistani brokerage Next Capital Ltd., the people said.
Prime Minister Imran Khan is pursuing a divestment that would rank as one of the biggest-ever mergers and acquisitions in Pakistan, as he seeks to bridge a financing gap of more than $12 billion and avoid a balance-of-payments crisis. The nation has secured loans from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and is close to a loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund.
Privatization Push
Pakistan is selling National Power Parks Management Co., the state-owned firm that owns and runs the 1,230-megawatt Haveli Bahadur Shah plant and the 1,223-megawatt Balloki plant. Both plants started operations in the past two years. The government has said it aims to complete the privatization of the power assets in the financial year ending June 30.
The sale would rank as Pakistan’s largest privatization since 2006, when Emirates Telecommunications Group Co. bought a $2.6 billion stake in Pakistan Telecommunication Co. in the country’s biggest-ever M&A transaction, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The power plant divestment is set to become Pakistan’s largest privatization in the energy sector, according to government figures dating back to 1991.
Pak Brunei Investment Co. is also pitching for a role on the power plant divestments in a group with Zeeruk International Pvt, the people said. BMA Capital Management Ltd. and CPCS Transcom Ltd. have submitted a joint proposal, according to Salman Virani, head of investment banking at BMA Capital.
Habib Bank Ltd. and China International Capital Corp. are partnering with JPMorgan, a representative for Habib Bank said in response to Bloomberg queries. CLSA submitted a joint proposal with Bank Alfalah Ltd. and their local brokerage venture, while Credit Suisse is pitching together with Pakistan’s Elixir Securities Ltd., the people said.
A representative for the Pakistan’s Privatisation Commission said the government has no comment. Representatives for CICC, Citigroup, CLSA, Credit Suisse, JPMorgan, Standard Chartered, Elixir Securities and Next Capital also declined to comment. Representatives for Lazard, Bank Alfalah, Pak Brunei and Zeeruk didn’t immediately respond to queries.
Feb 13, 2019
Riaz Haq
#Malaysian Leader in #Pakistan to Sign $900M #Investment deals in #informationtechnology and #telecom sectors. . #MahathirMohamad will also be the chief guest at the #PakistanDayParade. #technology https://www.voanews.com/a/malaysian-leader-in-pakistan-to-sign-900m...
Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad arrived Thursday in Pakistan on an official three-day visit, where his high-powered delegation is expected to finalize investment deals worth nearly $900 million, officials said.
The Malaysian leader will also be the chief guest at the Pakistan Day military parade Saturday, the Foreign Ministry announced.
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan's adviser on commerce told reporters that business leaders accompanying Mahathir would sign three memorandums of understanding on Friday covering up to $900 million worth of investments in information technology and telecom sectors.
The adviser, Razak Dawood, said the deals with Malaysia would also provide Pakistan a new opening toward membership in the Association of South East Asian Nations. He said Malaysian businessmen had also indicated they would like to invest in other sectors, including energy and textiles, to help Pakistan improve its exports.
Officials said that Malaysia's Proton carmaker signed an agreement late last year with a Pakistani partner to set up an assembly plant in the southern city of Karachi that would be its first facility in South Asia. Khan and his Malaysian counterpart are expected to officiate at a symbolic groundbreaking of the Proton plant Friday.
Looking for investors
Since taking office last August, Khan has approached nations that have warm relations with Pakistan, including China, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Malaysia, to bring investment and financial deposits to help reduce a widening current account deficit and shore up foreign reserves.
Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have deposited or are in the process of depositing $6 billion in loans in recent months. The two countries have also agreed to allow Islamabad to import oil on deferred payments. China is expected to deposit more than $2 billion in the next few days.
Beijing has invested more than $19 billion over the past six years in energy and infrastructure projects under what is known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, as part of its global Belt and Road Initiative.
Last month, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman visited Islamabad and signed investment agreements worth $20 billion, including a $10 billion refinery and petrochemicals complex in the southwestern port city of Gwadar.
Pakistani officials say they are also close to securing a deal with the International Monetary Fund for a bailout package reportedly of up to $12 billion.
Mar 21, 2019
Riaz Haq
#Lahore-Abdul Hakeem (near #Multan) Motorway (4-lane 230 Km M3) opens for general public . #Sukkur-Multan Motorway ( 6-lane 395 Km M5) to be operational by August 2019. #Pakistan #Motorways
https://www.pakwheels.com/blog/lahore-abdul-hakeem-motorway-opens-f...
The Government of Pakistan has finally opened Lahore-Abdul Hakeem Motorway for the general public from 1st April 2019. It was inaugurated by Governor Punjab, Chaudhry Sarwar on 31st March 2019. This new section of the motorway will reduce travel distance between Multan and Lahore making life easy for the commuters.
Note here that the total cost of this M3 section is around PKR 149 billion. It’s a six-lane motorway with eight interchanges over 40 bridges, 60 underpasses, three service stations, etc. The assigned speed at the newly opened motorway is 120 Km/h. It is also being termed as model motorway as Intelligent Transport System (ITS) has been installed on this new section.
It will ensure smooth traffic flow on the motorway, moreover, will handle all the emergencies occurring on the motorway. LED screens have been placed throughout the section, additionally, weigh system, and electronic toll collection has been introduced. Cameras have been deployed for monitoring vehicles.
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The Government of Pakistan has decided to open Abdul Hakeem-Lahore Motorway (M3) on 31-3-2019.
According to the details, the total length of the motorway is 230 kilometers which will cut down your commute time by two hours from Abdul Hakeem to Lahore and vice versa. PakWheels contacted an official of Motorway, and he confirmed that the Lahore-Abdul Hakeem motorway section would open for vehicles on 31 March 2019. Previously, it was scheduled to open in January; however, due to unknown reasons, it was delayed.
This project was started back in 2015 and was officially inaugurated by previous Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi in 2018. According to a security analyst, this particular project is significant keeping in view the objectives of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Read Also: 12 Driving tips to keep you safe on the motorway during fog
Moreover, an official of the National Highway Authority (NHA) while speaking to the local media said that with the completion of over 70 percent of the total work, Sukkur-Multan Motorway (M5) would get operational by August 2019. This 392 km long project started back in August 2016. When completed, this project will be a huge step towards developing a stronger Pakistani economy keeping in line with CPEC goals.
Apr 6, 2019
Riaz Haq
China’s CPEC Is Leading To Hot Real Estate In Pakistan’s Special Economic Zones
https://www.valuewalk.com/2019/07/pakistan-special-economic-zones/
According to Beijing, the provision of such extraordinary facilities aim to provide these countries; including Kazakhstan, Ethiopia, Armenia, Siri Lanka, Jamaica, Nigeria, Sudan, Malaysia, and Pakistan (which occupies the center stage for CPEC’s execution), with a coherent and productive real estate, energy, agricultural, and business infrastructure.
With massive infrastructural developments underway, the economic corridor project has already supplemented real estate demand in Pakistan. And investors in the country foresee a continual expansion of road and rail network, development of special economic zones, as well as power projects under the CPEC umbrella.
Similarly, real estate agents have become more optimistic about the speculative value of land in Gwadar and other parts of the country. Moreover, numerous local property portals have recorded an increase in property demand across the country in recent years – a trend which serves to highlight the positive impact of the CPEC initiative on Pakistan’s property market.
Facilitating the creation of an efficient infrastructure
Both the countries have pledged to pursue multiple energy and infrastructure projects on a joint venture basis. To help solve the energy crisis in Pakistan, China is working on 21 power plants and hydropower projects, some of which include:
1,320MW fuel power plant in Rahim Yar Khan, Punjab
1,320MW coal-fired power plant in Hub, Balochistan
2x660MW coal-fired power plant in Sahiwal, Punjab
2x660MW coal-fired power plant at Port Qasim in Karachi, Sindh
Kohala Hydel Project in Kohala, Azad Jammu & Kashmir
Suki Kinari Hydropower Station in Naran, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Moreover, China is becoming increasingly involved in the construction of a state-of-the-art network of roads in Pakistan to facilitate the good transport activities. Many of these projects were recently completed and inaugurated, including:
Karakoram Highway Phase II
Peshawar-Karachi Motorway
Expansion and restoration of Pakistan Railways’ Mainline-1
Upgradation of Dera Ismail Khan–Zhob Road
Quetta Mass Transit
Greater Peshawar Region Mass Transit
Karachi Circular Railway
Orange Line Metro Train - Lahore
Similarly, the projects planned exclusively for Gwadar include:
New Gwadar International Airport
Free Zones
Gwadar East-Bay Expressway
Gwadar University
Pak-China Friendship Hospital
Technical and vocational institutes
While the plans on development of special economic zones in the country are also extensive:
Special Economic Zone in Mirpur, Azad Jammu & Kashmir
Marble City in Mohmand, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Special Economic Zone in Moqpondass, Gilgit-Baltistan
ICT Model Industrial Zone, Islamabad
Allama Iqbal Industrial City in Faisalabad, Punjab
China Special Economic Zone in Dhabeji, Sindh
Rashakai Economic Zone in Nowshera, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
By providing an efficient infrastructure, China aims to create an enabling environment for global trade connectivity. But, these ambitious plans have also invited scepticism from several countries, with the US particularly critical of Beijing’s ‘debt diplomacy’.
As per a BBC report, China has repeatedly tried to address the concerns and criticism surrounding its OBOR project; saying that the sweeping infrastructure initiative doesn’t contain an agenda for geostrategic supremacy; rather it focuses on efforts to develop a global community with a shared future for mankind.
Jul 28, 2019
Riaz Haq
PM #ImranKhan: PROMOTING #CONSTRUCTION WILL BOOST #PAKISTAN’S #ECONOMY. INDUSTRIES LINKED TO CONSTRUCTION WILL PROSPER AND RESULT IN GREATER #JOB OPPORTUNITIES. Rs. 25 billion allocated for Pakistan #Housing Authority #cement #steel #transport #engineering https://www.newsweekpakistan.com/promoting-construction-sector-will...
Chairing a meeting about the construction sector in Islamabad, Khan designated its promotion yet another “topmost” priority of his government—he has already designated tourism, children’s rights, eradication of polio, and corruption, among others, ‘topmost’ priorities—adding that this would boost 40 linked industries and spur job creation. Khan said he was aware that people were experiencing financial difficulties due to rampant inflation, but said the government was making efforts to offset this by accelerating economic and business activities.
The prime minister said the government had decided, in principle, to accord the construction sector with the status of ‘industry,’ claiming this would increase the facilities available to it. He also directed the Competitive Commission of Pakistan to take measures to halt the creation of cartels that set unrealistic prices of raw materials related to the construction industry.
Adviser to the P.M. on Finance Abdul Hafeez Shaikh informed Khan during the meeting that sufficient progress had been made to address problems of the construction sector following meetings with the Association of Builders and Developers (ABAD) and other stakeholders. Shaikh said the government had also, as a first phase, allocated Rs. 25 billion for the Pakistan Housing Authority to promote the construction sector even further.
The meeting was also informed that consensus had been achieved on the future policy regarding fixed income tax for industries. In light of P.M. Khan’s desire to see a vertical growth in Pakistan’s cities, the meeting also reaffirmed that a policy on construction of high-rise buildings had been formulated and endorsed by the federal cabinet. Regarding the valuation of immovable properties, officials said the Federal Board of Revenue would appoint a regional valuation committee next week that would include the expertise of ABAD and the real estate sector.
The prime minister also directed the adviser on finance to request the superior judiciary to constitute a special bench for quick disposal of pending cases regarding real estate and construction sectors. He endorsed a proposal to promote a compliance regime instead of the existing No Objection Certificate system.
Discussing a proposal concerning the provision of state land for construction purposes, Khan declared it an important part of the government’s policy to utilize government property for construction projects targeting the low-income sector. He also agreed with a proposal to include the representatives of ABAD in regulatory bodies related to construction.
In addition to the prime minister and finance adviser, the meeting was also attended by Naya Pakistan Housing Authority Chairman Anwar Ali Haider; a representative of the Association of Builders and Developers, and other senior officials.
Jan 16, 2020
Riaz Haq
PM #ImranKhan announces incentives for #construction sector in #Pakistan: Rs 30 billion cash subsidies, no questions on #investment money source, lower #taxes, create jobs amid #coronavirus #lockdown. #NayaPakistan #housing #cement #steel #economy https://www.dawn.com/news/1546154/pm-imran-announces-incentives-for...
All the people investing in the construction sector this year will not be questioned about their source of income.
The tax rate will be fixed for the construction sector, and constructors will be charged tax per square foot or square yard.
People carrying out construction in the Naya Pakistan Housing Scheme for the poor will only have to pay 10 per cent of the fixed tax.
Withholding tax will be waived off for all construction sectors except the formal sectors of steel and cement.
Sales tax will be reduced in coordination with provinces.
Any family selling their house will not have to pay any capital gains tax.
A subsidy of Rs30 billion to be given for the Naya Pakistan Housing Scheme.
Construction sector to be given the status of an industry.
Construction Industry Development Board to be set up to support the sector.
Apr 3, 2020
Riaz Haq
Punjab seeks WB loan for land mapping project
https://www.dawn.com/news/1550979
The Punjab government is seeking a loan of $150 million from the World Bank for a land mapping project for accessing land records and for housing programmes in the province, it is learnt.
The proposed project aims to achieve provision of a cadastral map (a map that shows the boundaries and ownership of land within specified area) linked to digital land records, access to land for housing and a unified modern land information system.
As a first step towards the land mapping, the project envisages installation of geodetic control points (permanent reference markers placed in the ground to support the production of data collection for surveying and mapping projects) and generating base maps (maps having only essential outlines and used for the plotting or presentation of specialised data of various kinds).
These geospatial (data that is directly linked to specific geographical locations) products could then be made accessible to a larger community for a variety of decisions which could contribute to the National Spatial Data Infrastructure (NSDI) initiative in Pakistan, according to project details. The proposed project also aims to have revenue maps scanned and made available in digital form.
ARTICLE CONTINUES AFTER AD
With regard to digital cadastral maps, the project intends to inform the public and in case disputes arise, safeguards have been promised to be placed for the mediation and resolution of the land mapping disputes. The new cadastral maps would then be linked to the land records in the Land Records Management and Information Systems.
Another major reason given for seeking the World Bank loan for this particular project is that both federal and Punjab governments say they will not be able to achieve the goal of “Naya Pakistan Housing Programme” of constructing nearly 2.6 million low-cost housing units in Punjab if the province’s urban land record challenges are not resolved.
Under the “Punjab Growth Strategy 2023”, the provincial government plans to increase the average number of housing units to 640,000 annually over the next five years.
May 10, 2020
Riaz Haq
BMA forecasts #Pakistan #cement sector revival, backed by initiation of #ImranKhan's Naya Pakistan Housing Scheme and #construction package. Sees return to prosperity with 5% growth in FY21 (last 6 months) and 7-8% growth after that as #lockdown ends. https://www.cemnet.com/News/story/168992/return-to-prosperity-forec...
Pakistan's cement industry is likely to prosper in the coming months, due to some positive developments at the local and international level, anticipated by three of Pakistan's leading research houses.
BMA Capital Management forecasts that the cement sector is showing signs of revival, backed by initiation of the Naya Pakistan Housing Scheme and construction package announced by the government. Moreover, the easing of lockdowns has raised hopes for improved cement dispatches in the coming months.
Meanwhile, Al Habib Capital Markets states that cement dispatches are estimated to increase modestly due to the gradual easing of lockdowns and the possible announcement of relief measures in the Budget FY21, aimed at increasing construction-related activities.
In addition, Intermarket Securities adds that, despite a slow demand outlook, cement sector profitability is likely to resurge in FY21/22. This would be due to key supporting factors, such as lower international oil and coal prices (energy cost savings) and a steep decline in interest rates by the Central Bank of Pakistan.
It estimated that cement demand and prices will rebound strongly from the 2HFY21 onwards, when the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to be more manageable. Thus, the government will likely have more fiscal space to push construction activity – especially the low-cost housing scheme.
Intermarket Securities has upgraded the estimates for the cement industry, in light of the steep declines in international coal and oil prices, and the abrupt and significant cuts in interest rates in Pakistan. Lower coal prices (down 26 per cent YoY in the 4QFY20) is a boon, as coal remains the most significant input cost, along with a shift to furnace oil for power. Secondly, the decrease in interest rate by 525bps will drastically reduce finance costs and boost the bottom-line.
The analytical company, however, remains conservative on its demand growth outlook until the end-1HFY20. It foresees a five per cent YoY growth in FY21 (last six months) and 7-8 per cent YoY growth in the ensuing years. Whereas, during FY19/20 the sector saw intense price competition, where even the major players pushed sales at low prices. It believed that the government could have better fiscal space to push infrastructure from the 2HFY20 onwards. Thus, cement prices will start recovering more strongly.
It anticipated that retail prices will rise to PKR610/bag (US$3.75) in the north and PKR700/bag in the south by the end of FY21, from PKR480/bag and PKR620/bag, respectively, in March 2020.
Having said that, the risks of lower cement prices and depressed demand had not been wholly allayed. Weakness can emanate from the lack of an increase in government spending from FY20 levels (flattish budget allocation or PSDP), a delay in the start of low-cost housing schemes or a concurrent slowdown in exports. Prolonged lockdown conditions could also lead to severe liquidity issues for some producers.
Jun 11, 2020
Riaz Haq
#Pakistan PM #ImranKhan unveils Rs. 330 billion for low-cost #housing incentives, including down payment assistance, low-cost #mortgage financing and Sharia-compliant loans. Banks to set aside 5% of portfolios for mortgage lending. #NayaPakistanHousing https://tribune.com.pk/story/2254544/pm-imran-unveils-mortgage-fina...
Prime Minister Imran Khan has made another move to revive the coronavirus-hit economy with an initiative to promote the housing and construction sector with Rs330 billion of mortgage financing by the commercial banks in just 18 months.
The prime minister himself unveiled the plan for the revival of the construction sector after a maiden meeting of the newly formed National Coordination Committee on Housing and Construction on Friday.
Commenting on the government's initiative, a leading property developer and businessman Ejaz Gohar said that it was the first plan, which would make it affordable for the low and middle income people to build houses with mortgage financing of as low as 5 to 7% mark-up.
The commercial banks would allocate 5% of their portfolio amounting to Rs330 billion for the construction activities.
He noted that around Rs20 trillion was circulating in the informal unregistered economy and now was the opportunity for the people to get the huge amount of money declared by investing in the real estate sector by December 31, 2020.
Now a person with an income of Rs30,000 to Rs100,000 can build a house of 5-marla with the mortgage financing at 5% and that of 10-marla at 7% mark-up.
Gohar observed that mortgage financing started in the United States 82 years back to kick-start its economy. The government will give a subsidy of Rs30 billion for the construction of houses.
The prime minister has planned to hold meetings of the housing coordination committee every week to remove hurdles that come in the way as the country is far behind in terms of home mortgage financing as compared to the developed world.
As Covid-19 had hit hard the global economy, Pakistan too suffered a great deal due to the pandemic with rise in unemployment and shutting down of businesses, the government's measures for the construction sector would be a much needed timely relief.
Many economically strong countries like China, the United Kingdom, Italy and Spain were forced to impose strict lockdowns spread over months to contain the cases of Covid-19. However, economically fragile countries like Pakistan were caught in a dilemma as the option of complete lockdown was a recipe for disaster, especially for the vulnerable section of the society which comprised a significant portion of the country’s population.
Prime Minister Imran Khan – known for his leadership qualities since his cricketing days – went for a policy of smart lockdown, balancing the need to halt the spread of coronavirus and keep different sectors of the economy functional simultaneously.
The strategy largely worked and the primary sectors of economy are now open with the number of coronavirus cases after hitting the peak are lowering on a daily basis.
In order to deal with the adverse effects of Covid-19, the government had announced a relief package worth Rs1.2 trillion on March 24.
An important component of Pakistan's economic revival plan was the second phase of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Despite hurdles, Pakistan and China went ahead with the second phase of the mega project during the last two years. After undertaking of the infrastructure, road and energy projects across Pakistan in the first phase, the focus was shifted to the building of eight special economic zones and socioeconomic and human development with the Chinese financial assistance of $1 billion.
The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government established the CPEC Authority and appointed Lt General (retd) Asim Saleem Bajwa as it head.
Bajwa set his sights on executing vital projects, including M8 motorway from Gwadar (Balochistan) to Ratodero (Sindh) and $230 million Gwadar international airport.
Jul 12, 2020
Riaz Haq
#PAKISTAN - #Cement price up by Rs55/bag in Punjab, KP. Big difference in prices in north (Rs 505-525/bag) & south (Rs. 650/bag) regions..."we can call it that the cement sector has reached up to its old price level from where it declined.” #construction https://www.intercem.com/Intercem-Insights/News/ArtMID/683/ArticleI...
Pakistan cement manufacturers on Wednesday increased cement wholesale prices by upto Rs55/bag (or $0.375) in northern region (Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), cement dealers confirmed to The News.
This increase would be effective from the today (Thursday). In South regions (Sindh and Balochistan) the prices have been kept unchanged, the reason being its prices are already much higher than north region. With this hike, cement prices in north region stands at average of Rs505-525 per bag.
Mohammad Ali Tabba, Chief Executive Officer of the Lucky Cement Limited, when contacted said, “Since start of March 2020, and after approval of the Ordinance, cement demand has recovered up to 90 percent, and in the north region it has recovered full demand and has even achieved 10 percent more over the last year.”
Regarding the price hike, he said that since demand for cement had eroded in first two months (Jan-Feb), while at the same time, three manufacturers including our company had made expansion in their capacities, this pushed the prices to as low as Rs450/bag in north region from earlier Rs550 to 600/bag.
He said, “We cannot say it an increase in prices, but we can call it that the cement sector has reached up to its old price level from where it declined.” He said that the manufacturers have increased the prices in the range of Rs45 to 55/bag. Our company has increased the price by Rs50 in north region.
It is worth mentioning that there is a huge difference in the prices of cement in north and south regions. Average price in south is Rs650/bag, while in north region it is now around Rs505 t0 525/bag.
A cement dealer in Islamabad told The News that the senior companies’ representatives held the meeting and they have decided the price hike. He said that Fauji cement has increased its price by Rs45/bag while all other brands including Lucky Cement, Cherat Cement, DG Khan Cement and other producers in north region have increased the prices by Rs55/bag each. He said, “After this package, the demand for construction materials has increased.”
Jul 13, 2020
Riaz Haq
Pakistan is facing a shortfall of ten (10) million housing units growing at a rate of 0.35 million per year.
https://www.tabadlab.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Tabadlab_Mortga...
The
government has announced the Naya Pakistan Housing Program (NPHP) to facilitate the construction of
five (5) million units. To assist buyers with home ownership, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has relaxed
the prudential regulations that govern lending in the housing sector. The SBP policy allows for low-income
households to purchase housing units against a self-amortizing fixed rate mortgage (FRM) for a period of
12.5 years. Khalil and Nadeem (2019b) have shown that announced prices for housing units under NPHP
(Phase I), and the prevailing income levels amongst the low-income target segments, the SBP policy is not
likely to achieve its objectives.
This paper reviews international literature analyzing various mortgage designs, followed by an overview of
two options that may provide the optimum model of mortgages for low-cost units in Pakistan. A proposal for
a low-cost housing finance scheme, in light of local characteristics, is then presented along with a
framework for managing and measuring the scheme.
Instead of encouraging self-liquidating fixed rate mortgages for low-cost housing units (as recommended by
the SBP policy), the government should provide outside equity in the form of shared equity mortgages
(SEMs) to assist prospective buyers to become home owners. The joint equity in this proposed path forward
will maximize initial down payment and thus reduce the amount to be financed by banks. This will limit the
debt incidence for the borrower. Studies show that such mortgage structures increase affordability, and limit
the losses of borrowers, as well as losses to the wider economy under recessionary conditions. Additionally,
based on practices in developed mortgage markets, the amortization period of the mortgage should be
doubled from 12.5 years to 25 years. The paper concludes with a discussion on implementation modalities
and discussion points pertaining to the proposals presented.
Jul 27, 2020
Riaz Haq
Property rights for world's poor could unlock trillions in 'dead capital': economist
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-landrights-desoto/propert...
RIO DE JANEIRO (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - When it comes to alleviating poverty and allowing people to live up to their potential, prize-winning Peruvian economist Hernando de Soto divides the world into two groups: the ones who have defined property rights and those who do not.
About two billion people have full rights to the property they live in and the land they farm, according to the director of the Lima-based Institute for Liberty and Democracy.
For the 5.3 billion who do not have such rights, the implications are stark: people are unable to leverage their resources to create wealth, and their assets become “dead capital” which cannot be used to generate income or growth.
As a result, the poor remain trapped by the “tragedy of the commons” where their unregistered assets can be stolen by powerful interests, hurting individuals and broader economic development, de Soto said.
Legally protected property rights are the key source of the developed world’s prosperity, and the lack thereof is the reason why many nations remain mired in poverty, de Soto argued.
Providing the world’s poor with titles for their land, homes and unregistered businesses would unlock $9.3 trillion in assets, de Soto estimates, an unprecedented sum to reduce poverty.
Property titles would allow the poor to use their small homes or land in order to borrow money and start businesses, he said, unlocking the entrepreneurial potential of billions of people.
“There is no such thing as an investment without property rights that are negotiable and transferable,” de Soto told the Thomson Reuters Foundation in a phone interview.
“The question is: do people own things in such a way that they can be brought into the global market and make us wealthier?”
Political leaders preparing a new 20-year development plan for urban areas, to be agreed at a U.N. conference in October, will be addressing the challenge of unequal property rights as they face demands for better living standards from a growing global urban population.
HIDDEN CONNECTIONS
In the United States, the world’s largest economy, the most important source of funds for new businesses is a mortgage on the entrepreneur’s house, de Soto wrote in his book “The Mystery of Capital”.
Small business people in Haiti, the poorest country in the Americas, in contrast, normally cannot leverage the value of their homes or land to create businesses because they lack secure property rights.
An adviser to more than 30 heads of state from South Africa to the Philippines, the 75-year-old economist said there is no clear data on whether property rights are improving or receding globally.
But a lack of these rights underpins seemingly disparate international events from the rise of religious extremism in the Middle East, to rural land rights protests in China and conflicts over “blood diamonds” in central Africa, de Soto said.
Jul 27, 2020
Riaz Haq
Are insecure property rights holding back Pakistan’s economy?
We need to attempt to reform the institutions which govern us, better property rights might be a good place to start.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1457900
Let’s start with the basics. Property rights refer to an owners right to consume, use or even sell, barter, or gift, of an asset.
Think about this way: when you buy a plot of land, you acquire right to that property. You have the right to use it, build on it, exchange it for something else, sell it or gift it.
You can legally exclude other people from using your plot of land.
The same logic can be applied to intellectual property — if you come up with an idea, access to secure property rights would give you the ability to own that idea and benefit from it.
This has enormous benefits. It incentivises people to invest in the accumulation of assets — whether it is plots of land or ideas. Because these rights are tradable, they can be marketed and efficiently allocated within the economy.
Unreal estate: The boom in Gwadar’s property market
Consider a rather common anecdotal scenario which I have often heard a version of in Pakistan.
Imagine you own an undeveloped plot of land in the centre of Lahore. From your perspective, you want to sell the land to a buyer who has the capital to invest in it, but you cannot because your property rights aren’t secure. Perhaps the ownership over the land is contested and the courts have blocked its sale.
From the larger market perspective, that land acts as dead capital. It has an opportunity to be used for an economic activity, which would generate growth, but it cannot because the property rights are insecure.
When you drive around the centre of a bustling city like Lahore or Karachi and see some plots lying empty despite economic growth, it might be a reflection of insecure private property rights.
Going away from the analogy of plots, let’s briefly talk about something which is even more critical to economic development: ideas.
Ideas reflect innovation. If you come up with something new — perhaps a smartphone application or a new way of manufacturing something — and your ideas can be stolen, you have less incentive to spend time and energy in developing them.
In this way, lack of property rights ends up disincentivising innovation.
Copycat fashion: Can we police the line between imitation and inspiration?
In England, it has been argued, though with significant detractors, that the Glorious Revolution of 1688 led to the strengthening of private property rights. Due to the the monarch's shrinking power and the strengthening of the parliament, the state's power to expropriate property was reduced.
This security incentivised commercial expansion, with people theoretically more willing to invest, take the risk and acquire more assets.
It is hard to empirically prove that property rights were the most important determinant which led to this commercial expansion. However, it is likely that it is part of the story.
Even those who disagree that property rights were at the core of the Great Divergence and part of the growth story of many other countries since then, do not argue that secure, marketable private property rights are not conducive to economic growth.
This is more than reason enough for Pakistan to strongly consider how to strengthen private property rights.
How to establish secure property rights?
There are four interlinked features suggested which would allow such protection to emerge.
First, property rights need to be well-defined. This would deter the emergence of disputes and create a common stock of knowledge on who owns what.
For example, Pakistan's notorious patwari system is essentially a manifestation of badly-defined property rights.
The system empowers a person — a land record officer — to maintain large records of property owners. These officers are ill-famed for seeking bribes to grant the right to property, creating unnecessary costs.
Jul 27, 2020
Riaz Haq
Homeownership is the Top Contributor to Household Wealth
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/08282019_homeownership.asp
In 2015, 37 percent of households did not own a home and 47.1 percent did not have a retirement account. For those who had both, the home equity and savings accounted for 62.9 percent of the household's net worth. Equity provided 34.1 percent and retirement accounts made up 28.8 percent
From there, the percentage of assets contributing to wealth drops off sharply. The third and fourth categories, stocks/mutual funds and bank accounts made up about 8.5 percent each. Some of the most commonly held assets made up only a small portion of wealth, for example, 91 percent of households hold those fourth-ranked bank accounts while the largest contributor to wealth, home ownership was the third most commonly held asset. While the median amount of home equity was $95,800, the median value of assets at financial institutions was $4,600.
There were significant differences in worth within categories of age, gender, race, education, and employment. Having health insurance also appears to be a factor although it would be a result rather than a cause.
Unmarried female householders between the ages of 35 and 54 had a median wealth of $14,860. That was 39.5 percent of the median wealth held by unmarried males of the same age. That difference, however, disappeared in the 55- to 64-year old group; both unmarried women and their male counterparts had grown their net worth to about $60,000.
Non-Hispanic white and Asian householders had more household wealth by far than black and Hispanic householders. Non-Hispanic whites had a median household wealth of $139,300 and Asians $156,300 compared with $12,780 for black and $19,990 for Hispanic householders.
Households in which the most educated member held a bachelor's degree had a median wealth of $163,700, compared with $38,900 for households where the most educated member had a high school diploma.
Not surprisingly, those households in which at least one person had a full-time job for the entire year had a higher net worth ($101,000) than those where all members had a part-time job ($61,690) or were unemployed ($22,100). Households in which people were without health insurance all or part of the year had dramatically lower median wealth: $16,860, compared with $114,000 for households in which all members had health insurance for the entire year.
Jul 27, 2020
Riaz Haq
#Steel bars get pricier amid #construction boom in #Pakistan. Price hikes came at a time when #economic activities worth Rs1 trillion & Rs100 billion had been generated in Punjab & Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, respectively, in housing and construction projects. https://www.dawn.com/news/1593040
Manufacturers of quality steel bars increased their prices by up to Rs3,000 per tonne in November on the back of rising raw material costs in world markets and growing strength of the rupee against the dollar.
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On Friday, Prime Minister Imran Khan was informed in a meeting of the National Coordination Committee on Housing Construction and Development that 6,000 apartments would be constructed in Karachi under a project called Pakistan Quarters. In the first phase, work would start on 700 residential units at a cost of Rs4 billion over the next three months.
Another meeting on the Karachi Transformation Plan (KTP) presided over by the premier was informed that more than 100 projects worth Rs1.1 trillion have been planned under the programme.
Mughal Iron and Steel Industries Chief Operating Officer Shakeel Ahmed said the company pushed up the price of good quality steel bars by Rs3,000 per tonne in November to Rs114,500-115,000 per tonne.
Ruling out the possibility of increasing the price of long-steel product to cash in on the rising demand in the northern areas owing to construction activities, he said raw material prices have risen to $370 per tonne from $330 per tonne in the last one month. It happened due to various reasons like port congestion and the fear of further lockdowns in world markets.
The management of Mughal Iron and Steel Industries had informed analysts of brokerage houses that the Naya Pakistan Housing Programme (NPHP) can potentially create 6-7m tonnes demand for long steel assuming the government builds 50 per cent of the promised houses.
The company views future demand to come from the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the five hydro dam projects. It has already won a contract for three dams. It estimates steel demand of 350,000 tonnes from Bhasha Dam and 250,000 tonnes from Mohmand Dam in the first phase.
Razaque Steels Managing Director Irshad Mowjee, who also serves as general secretary of the National Steel Advisory Council (NSAC), said his company has increased the price by Rs3,000 on two kinds of quality steel bars, which now cost Rs111,500 and Rs116,500 per tonne.
Shredded scrap prices in world markets have risen due to lockdowns in Europe and the United States. The supply of scrap has become scarce, resulting in a hike in international prices. Yards do not have materials and the incoming supply is limited, resulting in the prices going up by $40 per tonne within the last three weeks, he added.
Fearing a further increase in steel bar prices if scrap rates do not come down, he suggested that the regulatory duty on raw materials should be abolished. The duty is not justified on raw materials used in a basic industry as industrialisation is the government’s top priority.
If it is not removed, it will affect the viability of CPEC projects. Cost overruns will happen as steel is a major component, he said.
Mr Mowjee urged the government to remove the additional customs duty of 2pc as competing raw materials are exempted from it. At present, the incidence of tax is around Rs23,000 per tonne, which needs to be reduced, he added.
Shredded scrap is used for manufacturing good quality bars for infrastructure projects. Increasing prices will affect the viability of CPEC projects, he said.
Gadani supplies ship plates that are used as raw material for lower-quality steel bars. Their prices have not increased, thus making bars made from steel billets uncompetitive. This may cause a drop in the production of good quality bars for infrastructure projects, he said.
Dec 9, 2020
Riaz Haq
“The natural, geographical and cultural environments of China and Pakistan are very different from each other, so during construction, we worked out measures to adapt to local conditions and shared our construction experience with our Pakistani friends.”
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/770493-china-s-construction-giant-...
This was stated by Dong Zhihong, deputy general manager of Asia Pacific Division, China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC), in an interview with China Economic Net (CEN).
Take the mountainous areas in Pakistan as an example. “It is difficult to conduct construction work there as the geological conditions are not that favorable.”
Therefore, “blasting, protection, and support of high slope, tunneling and excavation technologies are applied to the construction project site after certain improvement and optimization,” Mr. Dong added.
At present, the commencement order was issued by the employer, and work including the take over of the site, the construction of temporary camps for administration office and dormitory, the construction of temporary facilities (batch plant, canteen), and the removal of existing avionics facilities on the runway was completed.
Jan 6, 2021
Riaz Haq
Govt To Provide Loan To Deserving People Under Kamyab Pakistan Programme: Tarin
https://www.urdupoint.com/en/pakistan/govt-to-provide-loan-to-deser...
:Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue Shaukat Tarin Wednesday said the government would provide loan to deserving people to set up their business or purchase house through transparent process.
Talking to a private news channel, he said under Kamyab Pakistan Programme, low-cost housing scheme would be launched for lower income groups enabling them to own their houses.
Tarin said the data of deserving beneficiaries was available with department concerned in that regard.
The minister further said the incumbent government was providing loan on easy conditions and Kamyab Pakistan Programme beneficiaries could easily access to agriculture and business loans at zero-mark up without collateral.
He said the government under visionary leadership of Prime Minister Imran Khan had strengthened and stabled the national economy through prudent economic policies.
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Kamyab Pakistan Program to bring 3 million families out of poverty: Shaukat Tarin
https://dunyanews.tv/en/Business/614415-Kamyab-Pakistan-Program-to-...
Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin has said that beneficiaries of Kamyab Pakistan Program would enjoy easy access to agricultural and business loans at zero-mark up without collateral.
He was talking to Prime Minister s Special Assistant on Social Protection and Poverty Alleviation Dr. Sania Nishtar in Islamabad.
The Finance Minister said Kamyab Pakistan Program will provide low-cost housing scheme for lower income groups enabling them to own their houses.
He said the program will bring at least three million families out of the vicious cycle of poverty in the next three to five years.
Aug 12, 2021
Riaz Haq
#imrankhanPTI: over 70,000 #housing projects worth Rs1.4 trillion have been approved, which will have an overall impact of Rs 7.3 trillion on the #construction industry, and 1.2 million new #jobs will be created. #Pakistan #NayaPakistan https://www.brecorder.com/news/40153680
Prime Minister Imran Khan said that over 70,000 housing projects worth Rs1.4 trillion have been approved, which will have an overall impact of Rs7.3 trillion on the construction industry, and 1.2 million new jobs will be created.
“It is our government’s huge achievement that out of the total 80,000 applications, 35,420 applications amounting to Rs130 billion have been approved. A total of Rs46 billion has been disbursed to 13,407 applicants so far,” he said, while chairing a meeting of the NCC on Housing, Construction and Development, here on Thursday.
He added that applications worth Rs7 billion are being received weekly out of which Rs4 billion are approved and Rs2 billion is being disbursed every week, which shows that the devised system is working efficiently. “PTI’s government has achieved huge milestones regarding provision of low-cost housing to lower and middle-income class,” he added. He further said the government’s biggest challenge was to change the elitist mindset of financial institutions and ensure facilitation of common people in getting loans.
Average loan worth 36 lakhs in the approved and disbursed loans figure shows that the biggest beneficiary of subsidized loans is the middle- and lower-income class, he said.
In the last three years of the government, a 148 percent increase in housing finance and expected approval of Rs517 billion till December 2022, reflects the steps taken by the government to facilitate low-cost housing and construction industry, he added.
Housing Finance: Growth, but!
The prime minister said that in line with the manifesto of the PTI, the government is moving in the direction to add one percent every year in the housing finance against our GDP that will result in a construction boom and provision of houses to the lower and middle income class.
The meeting was briefed that for the very first time in the history of Pakistan, a sustainable ecosystem for low-cost housing has been developed and implemented, which has enabled the sector to achieve exponential growth.
The Foreclosure Law has been implemented in letter and spirit and long-term loans (up to 20 years) with subsidized mark-up (as low as only two percent) are being given. In addition to that a cost subsidy of Rs300,000 for low-income housing schemes and 90 percent tax waiver has resulted in encouraging the private sector, which is actively participating in the construction of housing units under the schemes.
The projects include urban, peri-urban, urban regeneration, government-funded and private sector projects.
The meeting was also briefed about the transparent and automated process to receive and process the applications, which has resulted in targeting the needful lower and middle-income class.
This is being ensured by the development of one-window digital portal with automated application tracking system by development authorities.
The meeting was also briefed on figures regarding the total low-cost housing construction activity so far after 2018. A total of 161,924 low-cost housing units were approved, out of which 45,191 units are under construction and 20,898 units have been completed, which is significant, bearing in mind that before the subsidies by the government, foreclosure law and low-cost housing schemes by the PTI’s government, the sector was in a shambles.
A break-up of the government financed low-cost housing projects was also given according to which 4,000 units in Farash Town, 4,000 units in LDA City, 1,320 units in Jalozai, 245 units in Raiwind, 324 units in Sargodha and Chiniot, and 1,800 units at Angoori Road are being constructed with completion deadlines before the end of 2022.
Feb 11, 2022