Turkish and Israeli Drones Enable Azerbaijan's Decisive Victory Over Armenia

Defense analysts believe that Turkish and Israeli drones have helped Azerbaijan achieve decisive victory against Armenia. "Azerbaijan’s drones owned the battlefield in Nagorno-Karabakh — and showed future of warfare" says the Washington Post headline as tweeted by drone warfare expert Franz-Stefan Gady. Low-cost Azeri drones killed thousands of Armenian soldiers in Nagorno-Karabakh and destroyed hundreds of Armenian tanks and artillery pieces, giving a huge advantage to Azerbaijan and forcing the Armenian surrender.  Armenian Prime Minister accused Pakistan of sending troops to help Azerbaijan in the conflict. Pakistan rejected Armenian allegations and congratulated Azerbaijan on its victory. 

Turkish Drones

Azeris deployed a variety of drones in their war against Armenia to wrest control of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region that is legally part of Azerbaijan but controlled by Armenians. Azeris used Turkish Bayraktar drones which are large and reusable drones. They also Kamikaze drones made by Israel which are small and designed for one-time use in destroying targets.  The small Israeli-made suicide drones are sometimes also referred to as "loitering munitions". Azeris used big old WW2 Antonov AN-2 biplanes as decoys to fool Armenian air defense systems. 

Michael Kofman, military analyst and director of Russia studies at CNA, a defense think tank in Arlington, Va. is quoted by the Washington Post as saying, “Drones offer small countries very cheap access to tactical aviation and precision guided weapons, enabling them to destroy an opponent’s much-costlier equipment such as tanks and air defense systems.”  “An air force is a very expensive thing,” he added. “And they permit the utility of air power to smaller, much poorer nations.”

In 2019, dozens of cheap drones were deployed against Abqaiq and Khurais oil fields to cut Saudi Aramco's production by half, according to multiple media reports. Saudi and US officials have blamed Iran for the destructive hit. This was the first time that cheap drone swarms loaded with explosives dodged sophisticated air defense systems to hit critical infrastructure targets in the history of warfare.  

Small drones are hard to detect even by the most sophisticated radars. It's even harder to shoot down a drone swarm because of their small size and large numbers. After Abqaiq and Khurais attacks last year, Saudi sources revealed that 25 drones and missiles were used to hit the two sites that produced 5.7 million barrels of oil per day. The incoming low-flying small drones and missiles successfully evaded US-supplied sophisticated air defense system. Multi-billion dollar cutting edge American military hardware mainly designed to deter high altitude attacks has proved no match for low-cost drones and cruise missiles used in a strike that crippled its giant oil industry. 

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  • Riaz Haq

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-07-10/killer-drones-pl...

    A cheap, locally assembled flying arsenal is changing the economics of war. Thousands of Ukraine's deadliest weapons were made on the top three floors of a residential high-rise in Kyiv.

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    https://www.economist.com/interactive/science-and-technology/2024/0...

    Feb 5, 2024 — How cheap drones are transforming warfare in Ukraine. First Person View drones have achieved near mythical status on the front lines

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    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-11/diy-bomb-carr...

    Ukraine, confronted with limited resources and far fewer soldiers than Russia as the war drags into its third year, has found that its best weapons against the massive invading force can be made just about anywhere.

    Over 100 drone producers have emerged since the Russian invasion, with many of them making first-person-view drones that look a lot like the ones you’d find in a Walmart toy section (minus the bomb). They cost as little as $400 and pack a charge strong enough to destroy an armored vehicle. Three can take out a $9 million tank.

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    https://www.cfr.org/article/how-drone-war-ukraine-transforming-conf...


    From drones that fit in the palm of the hand to drones weighing more than 1,000 pounds (454 kilograms), Ukraine has built and acquired a diverse fleet of remotely piloted aircraft to complicate and frustrate Russia’s advances. The constantly evolving scope of this technology and its ever-growing use signal not only the potential for drones to level the playing field in the Russia-Ukraine war, but also their ability to influence how future conflicts are waged.

    Why is the war in Ukraine a hotbed for drones?
    As the war enters its third calendar year, neither side is close to achieving air superiority. Most military analysts expected that Russia, with its superior air power, would quickly seize control of contested airspace early in the conflict. But surprisingly, Ukraine’s defenses, later bolstered by Western systems, were able to repel and deter Russian aircraft from making near-border and cross-border strikes. The inability of either side to break through the other’s integrated air defenses has forced them to increase the agility of their fielded forces and rely more heavily on standoff weapons, including long-range artillery, missiles, and drones. These conditions have led to the development of new drone technologies that could help Ukraine level the playing field in the air battle and possibly turn the tide of the war in its favor.


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    https://thebulletin.org/2023/11/threat-in-the-sky-how-cheap-drones-...

    On October 7, in a surprise attack, Hamas penetrated Israel’s famous air defense system, the Iron Dome, using small, relatively inexpensive commercial drones as part of a larger assault that killed more than 1,400 people and sparked an ongoing conflict that has left thousands dead and injured. Among other actions, the drones disabled the surveillance and observation capabilities of Israel’s watchtowers along the Gaza border.

    Although drones have been around for more than a century and featured prominently in combat for several years, until recently their high price tag meant only countries with hefty defense budgets like the United States and Israel could afford them. Large-scale repurposing of commercial drones was first used in the conflict that began after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This, experts believe, became a blueprint for Hamas militants in their attack on Israeli military infrastructure early last month.

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan And India Bolster Azerbaijan And Armenia’s Airpower



    https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2024/09/29/pakistan-and-india-bolster-azerbaijan-and-armenias-airpower/


    Neighboring rivals India and Pakistan are helping two other rival countries in the South Caucasus region build up their modest air forces with fighter jet exports and upgrades.

    Beaming and giving a thumbs up from the cockpit of a newly-delivered JF-17C Block III at Heydar Aliyev International Airport in Baku on September 25, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev conclusively confirmed years of rumors that his country would acquire that combat aircraft from Pakistan. The following day, the Pakistani military announced the signing of a contract to sell the single-engine, multirole fighter jets to Azerbaijan but did not reveal the cost or how many fighters the contract covers.

    Unconfirmed reports in Azerbaijani and Pakistani media in February claimed Azerbaijan had reached a $1.6 billion deal for the JF-17s but again did not disclose the number of jets.

    Either way, induction of these modern fighters with their active electronically scanned array, AESA, radars marks a boost for Azerbaijan’s modest air force, which hitherto consisted of a mere dozen MiG-29s and less than 40 subsonic Su-25 Frogfoot attack planes.

    The news came less than a week after Indian media confirmed that Armenia is seeking New Delhi’s help to upgrade its tiny fleet of just four Russian Su-30SM jets, the only fighters Yerevan has. India, which manufactures the Su-30MKI variant under license, is ideally suited for helping Armenia upgrade its four Flankers for reasons previously outlined in this space.


    According to the Indian media reports, Armenia seeks the Uttam AESA radar, new avionics, and weapons. India produces the indigenous beyond visual range Astra air-to-air missile, which is compatible with the Su-30, and may well sell them to Armenia. Such upgrades could help Armenia’s twin-engine, sleek, and supermaneuverable Flankers maintain their technological edge against Azerbaijan’s shiny new JF-17s.

    Armenia has already bought advanced weaponry from India, notably the Akash medium-range air defense system, and is reportedly considering other systems. In recent years, it has sought to diversify its military procurement sources to lessen its overwhelming reliance on Russian hardware. As part of this process, it also acquired Mistral short-range air defense missiles from France and Caesar howitzers.

    More broadly, Armenia’s air defenses are undergoing a transitional phase. Iran International reported in July that Armenia had secretly reached a $500 million deal with Iran for the supply of indigenous long-range air defenses. On top of that, the Kyiv Post recently reported that Armenia signed a $232 million contract with the European Commission in late August to transfer Soviet-era munitions and equipment, including its strategic, long-range S-300 air defense missile systems, to Ukraine.

    Both of those reports should, of course, be taken with a gigantic grain of salt. However, one thing is certain: the Armenian armed forces are doubtlessly undergoing a substantial and rapid transformation.

    India can doubtlessly help Armenia get the best out of its Su-30s, which arrived in 2019 but were never used in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan or during subsequent clashes. New Delhi may even be in a position to offer Armenia additional Su-30s.

    The Diplomat recently reported that Indian-built Su-30s could be a game-changer in the international arms export market. The country recently entered talks with Russia on the potential joint production of Flankers in India for export. The Russian airframe, which is renowned for its maneuverability, coupled with Indian-made systems and weapons, would offer potential buyers a very unique combat aircraft.

    “With a long list of potential clients for a jointly produced Su-30 fighter, the implications of such an agreement for both countries remain highly significant,” read the report.

  • Riaz Haq

    Faseeh Mangi
    @FaseehMangi
    Turkey Plans Drone Facility in Pakistan in Global Defense Push | Exclusive

    Talks over the project have advanced recently, which would see Turkey export stealth and long-endurance drones to be put together in Pakistan

    https://x.com/FaseehMangi/status/1996908814323613836?s=20

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    Turkey Plans Drone Facility in Pakistan in Global Defense Push


    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-05/turkey-plans-dro...

    Turkey plans to set up a facility in Pakistan to assemble combat drones as part of its drive to boost its defense industry in international markets.
    Talks over the project have advanced significantly since October, and would see Turkey export stealth and long-endurance drones to be put together in Pakistan.
    The discussions are part of Turkey's efforts to grow its defense industry, which underpins President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ambitions to strengthen his influence in the Middle East and further afield.
    Turkey plans to set up a facility in Pakistan to assemble combat drones, part of Ankara’s drive to boost its defense industry in international markets, according to Turkish officials familiar with the matter.

    Talks over the project, which would see Turkey export stealth and long-endurance drones to be put together in Pakistan, have advanced significantly since October, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information.

    Turkey’s Defense Ministry declined to comment. Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar didn’t respond to requests for a comment.

    The discussions are part of Turkey’s efforts to grow its defense industry, a strategy that underpins President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ambitions to strengthen his influence in the Middle East and further afield. The country has announced deals this year including an order by Indonesia for fighter planes and has plans to supply more arms to Saudi Arabia and Syria.

    Turkey’s defense exports increased 30% in the first 11 months of this year to a record $7.5 billion, Haluk Gorgun, who heads the presidency’s defense-industry body, said on Thursday.

    Turkey has long-standing ties with Pakistan and is building corvette warships for its navy under a co-production deal, according to both countries. Turkey has upgraded dozens of Pakistan’s F-16s and now wants Islamabad to join its Kaan fifth-generation fighter program, the people said.

    The talks to bolster Pakistan’s military capabilities come in the wake of a ceasefire with India following a four-day military clash between the nuclear-armed neighbors in May. Tensions are also high between Pakistan and Afghanistan, leading to a series of clashes, ever since Islamabad accused the Taliban of hosting militant groups that plan attacks on the country.