Kishore Mahbubani, a prolific writer, speaker and former Singaporean diplomat, believes that the western domination of the world over the last 200 years is "aberrant" when seen in the context of the last several thousand years of human history. In his book "Has China Won", he writes that "we are also moving away from a black-and-white world". "Societies in different parts of the world, including in China and Islamic societies, are going to work toward a different balance between liberty and order, between freedom and control, between discord and harmony".
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| Kishore Mahbubabi |
In a recent interview, Mahbubani made the following points about US-China competition:
1. The United States with about 240-year history likes to pass judgement on China which has over 2,400 year history. What makes the US think China would listen to the American advice?
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| Global Power Shift Since Industrial Revolution |
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Riaz Haq
This warship shows why the U.S. Navy is falling behind China.
Stocked with high-tech weaponry to protect against enemy submarines, missiles and drones, the Constellation was meant to address an embarrassing reality: The U.S. is now the global laggard in building warships. The U.S. chose a proven design from Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri in an effort to speed the process. Then the Navy started tinkering. Now, after 4½ years of design and construction, the project is only 10% complete, WSJ reports.
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https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/warship-shows-why-u-...
When a Wisconsin shipyard won the contract to build a new class of Navy frigate in 2020, the project was meant to address an embarrassing reality: The U.S. is now the global laggard in building warships.
Stocked with high-tech weaponry to protect against enemy submarines, missiles and drones, the USS Constellation was expected to be ready for the open water in 2026. That was because the U.S. chose a proven design from Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri FCT -1.43%decrease; red down pointing triangle in an effort to speed the process.
Then the Navy started tinkering.
The hull was lengthened by 24 feet to accommodate larger generators and reconfigured in part because the design was based on the relatively benign conditions in the Mediterranean, and the propeller changed for better acoustic performance, among other time-consuming adjustments.
The effect: Like almost all other U.S. naval vessels, the Constellation is already years behind schedule and millions over budget.
Physical construction began in mid-2022, and after more than 2½ years, the project is only 10% complete, according to a person familiar with the timeline.
At this pace, including the two years of design time before building began, the ship will be completed in a total of nine years—around twice as long as it took an Italian shipyard to build the vessels it is based on. The Constellation, the first in what is expected to be around 20 to be built, is projected to cost at least $600 million more than its original estimate of $1.3 billion.
The Constellation’s slow production and extra costs help explain why almost nobody wants to buy new American warships—even as allies clamor for U.S. fighter jets and other weapons.
A festering problem for the U.S. has turned into an acute one, as the world order shifts rapidly and the Pentagon gears up for a potential conflict in Asia that experts believe would be fought in large part on the seas.
The issue is top of mind for President Trump, who is racing to address the problem even as his tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum would likely increase the cost of the domestically produced metals shipbuilders use.
Trump said in his speech to Congress this month that his administration wants to create a new Office of Shipbuilding, with the goal of producing more of both commercial and military vessels. The administration is also preparing an executive order aimed at reviving U.S. shipbuilding and cutting Chinese dominance in the industry.
China years ago leapfrogged America in making naval craft faster and for less money. From 2014 to 2023, China’s navy launched 157 ships while the U.S. launched 67, according to independent defense analyst Tom Shugart. The Chinese fleet is now the world’s largest, although the U.S. Navy says the quality of its ships are still better.
Most countries are faster at building. Of 20 different frigates made recently or set for completion soon in 10 different countries, all but one were or will be built in less time than the U.S.’s Constellation, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis. Frigates are the medium-size warships used for submarine warfare and escorting larger ships, among other tasks. U.S. construction of destroyers, the larger, heavily armed warships, is also slower than other countries.
Mar 21
Riaz Haq
Automakers Race to Find Workaround to China’s Stranglehold on Rare-Earth Magnets
https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/car-companies-production-rare-ea...
Major manufacturers, fearful they will have to shut down assembly lines, consider moving some parts production to China
Key Points
What's This?
Automakers fear China’s rare-earth magnet export controls may halt car production within weeks.
Auto firms consider shifting parts manufacturing to China to bypass export controls on rare-earth magnets.
Carmakers weigh alternatives such as older tech or feature removal.
Four major automakers are racing to find workarounds to China’s stranglehold on rare-earth magnets, which they fear could force them to shut down some car production within weeks.
Several traditional and electric-vehicle makers—and their suppliers—are considering shifting some auto-parts manufacturing to China to avoid looming factory shutdowns, people familiar with the situation said.
Ideas under review include producing electric motors in Chinese factories or shipping made-in-America motors to China to have magnets installed. Moving production to China as a way to get around the export controls on rare-earth magnets could work because the restrictions only cover magnets, not finished parts, the people said.
If automakers end up shifting some production to China, it would amount to a remarkable outcome from a trade war initiated by President Trump with the intention of bringing manufacturing back to the U.S.
“If you want to export a magnet [from China] they won’t let you do that. If you can demonstrate that the magnet is in a motor in China, you can do that,” said a supply-chain manager at one of the carmakers.
China in April began requiring companies to apply for permission to export magnets made with rare-earth metals, including dysprosium and terbium. The country controls roughly 90% of the world’s supply of these elements, which help magnets to operate at high temperatures. Much of the world’s modern technology, from smartphones to F-35 jet fighters, rely on these magnets.
In the auto industry, rare-earths are what allow electric-vehicle motors to function at high speed. They are also used in less exotic, though no less critical, functions performed by such parts as windshield wipers and headlights.
China was supposed to have eased export controls on rare-earth magnets as part of a 90-day tariff truce agreement with the White House, but the country has slow walked license approvals for magnets. Trump accused China of violating its deal with the U.S. China has pushed back at the notion that it was to blame, alleging “discriminatory and restrictive measures” by Washington, including restricting exports of AI chips and revoking visas for Chinese students.
As exports of rare-earth magnets have virtually ground to a halt, carmakers face hard decisions about whether they can continue to keep some plants operating, according to people familiar with the planning. The European Association of Automotive Suppliers said Wednesday that several production lines and plants across Europe have already closed, with more impacts expected in the coming weeks as inventories deplete.
In May, industry groups representing most major automakers and parts suppliers told the Trump administration that vehicle production could be reduced or shut down imminently without more rare-earth components from China.
“While efforts are under way to bolster supply chains and suppliers of these elements outside of China, this will take additional time and will not alleviate the immediate shortage of elements vital for automotive components used to produce vehicles here at home,” said the letter, which was signed by the heads of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation and MEMA, the Vehicle Suppliers Association.
Jun 4
Riaz Haq
Overmatched: Top secret US report warns American forces would be drastically outmatched by China | The Independent
The U.S. military is most likely to suffer a defeat at the hands of China if it tried to intervene in a war over Taiwan, a top secret Pentagon assessment report has found.
Pentagon war games simulating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan have shown that Beijing could cripple U.S. fighter squadrons, major warships, and even satellite networks before they deploy effectively, the highly classified document, “Overmatch Brief”, warned.
The document, prepared by the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment, shows America's reliance on advanced and expensive weapons makes it vulnerable to China's rapidly manufactured cheaper ones, reported the New York Times.
The report warned that China has developed the capacity to neutralise critical American assets at the outset of a conflict.
It comes days after Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry, warned U.S. to “handle the Taiwan question with the utmost prudence”.
The report, recently delivered to senior White House officials, said China’s rapidly maturing arsenal – particularly its long-range precision missiles, expanding fleet of advanced aircraft, large surface vessels, and its counter-space capabilities – now places U.S. forces at a significant operational disadvantage in the region.
China has amassed an arsenal of about 600 hypersonic weapons, which “can travel at five times the speed of sound and are difficult to intercept”, the report said. The Office of Net Assessment is a state agency that serves as the Pentagon's internal think tank.
When a senior Biden national security official received the “Overmatch” brief in 2021, he turned “pale” after realising that “every trick we had up our sleeve, the Chinese had redundancy after redundancy”, a official who was present there said, according to the NYT.
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The report notes that China could destroy many U.S. advanced weapons, such as aircraft carriers before they even reach Taiwan, using missiles amassed over the past 20 years.
In wargames simulating battlefield scenarios, even the latest U.S. Navy carrier is often not able to sustain an attack, the assessment said.
The report cited the example of America’s latest U.S.S Gerald R. Ford, built at a cost of $13 billion and deployed in 2022. Despite the new technologies, including more advanced nuclear reactors, the carrier would be unable to survive a Chinese attack.
The Ford, which would be effective if matched against weaker powers like Venezuela, is “fatally vulnerable to new forms of attack”, it said.
The report also drew from real-world examples as the war in Ukraine against Russia continues to test Western weaponry on the battlefield and the adversaries of America are learning of the shortcomings and strengths.
“The war in Ukraine demonstrated how vulnerable tanks have become,” it said.
The assessment also warned that the U.S. no longer has the industrial capacity to produce weapons and munitions at the speed and scale required for a prolonged conflict with a major power.
Washington is falling behind in rapidly developing advanced weapons compared to Beijing and Moscow as it “over-relies on expensive and vulnerable weapons”, it said.
Previously, Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense, said in the Pentagon’s war games against China, “we lose every time” and predicted that China’s hypersonic missiles could easily destroy aircraft carriers within minutes.
The U.S. is vulnerable because the missile stockpiles have already been strained by support for Israel and Ukraine, it said.
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has previously cautioned that the U.S. would run out of key munitions quickly in a war with China.
Internal Pentagon assessments indicate that China now far surpasses the U.S. in nearly every category of cruise and ballistic missiles, even though both countries retain around 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
Dec 15