Overmatched: Top secret US report warns American forces would be drastically outmatched by China | The Independent


The U.S. military is most likely to suffer a defeat at the hands of China if it tried to intervene in a war over Taiwan, a top secret Pentagon assessment report has found.

Pentagon war games simulating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan have shown that Beijing could cripple U.S. fighter squadrons, major warships, and even satellite networks before they deploy effectively, the highly classified document, “Overmatch Brief”, warned.

The document, prepared by the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment, shows America's reliance on advanced and expensive weapons makes it vulnerable to China's rapidly manufactured cheaper ones, reported the New York Times.

The report warned that China has developed the capacity to neutralise critical American assets at the outset of a conflict.


It comes days after Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry, warned U.S. to “handle the Taiwan question with the utmost prudence”.

The report, recently delivered to senior White House officials, said China’s rapidly maturing arsenal – particularly its long-range precision missiles, expanding fleet of advanced aircraft, large surface vessels, and its counter-space capabilities – now places U.S. forces at a significant operational disadvantage in the region.

China has amassed an arsenal of about 600 hypersonic weapons, which “can travel at five times the speed of sound and are difficult to intercept”, the report said. The Office of Net Assessment is a state agency that serves as the Pentagon's internal think tank.

When a senior Biden national security official received the “Overmatch” brief in 2021, he turned “pale” after realising that “every trick we had up our sleeve, the Chinese had redundancy after redundancy”, a official who was present there said, according to the NYT.

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The report notes that China could destroy many U.S. advanced weapons, such as aircraft carriers before they even reach Taiwan, using missiles amassed over the past 20 years.

In wargames simulating battlefield scenarios, even the latest U.S. Navy carrier is often not able to sustain an attack, the assessment said.

The report cited the example of America’s latest U.S.S Gerald R. Ford, built at a cost of $13 billion and deployed in 2022. Despite the new technologies, including more advanced nuclear reactors, the carrier would be unable to survive a Chinese attack.

The Ford, which would be effective if matched against weaker powers like Venezuela, is “fatally vulnerable to new forms of attack”, it said.

The report also drew from real-world examples as the war in Ukraine against Russia continues to test Western weaponry on the battlefield and the adversaries of America are learning of the shortcomings and strengths.


“The war in Ukraine demonstrated how vulnerable tanks have become,” it said.

The assessment also warned that the U.S. no longer has the industrial capacity to produce weapons and munitions at the speed and scale required for a prolonged conflict with a major power.

Washington is falling behind in rapidly developing advanced weapons compared to Beijing and Moscow as it “over-relies on expensive and vulnerable weapons”, it said.

Previously, Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense, said in the Pentagon’s war games against China, “we lose every time” and predicted that China’s hypersonic missiles could easily destroy aircraft carriers within minutes.

The U.S. is vulnerable because the missile stockpiles have already been strained by support for Israel and Ukraine, it said.

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has previously cautioned that the U.S. would run out of key munitions quickly in a war with China.

Internal Pentagon assessments indicate that China now far surpasses the U.S. in nearly every category of cruise and ballistic missiles, even though both countries retain around 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

Tom Shugart
@tshugart3


Last week saw the release of the 2025 China Military Power Report (CMPR). For those not familiar, this is DoD’s Congressionally-mandated unclassified update on the Chinese military. It’s an annual feast of open-source data.

So, here are few thoughts (Part 1) on the report:

https://x.com/tshugart3/status/2005315617906401580?s=61&t=mgTxr...

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While the 2024 report's exec summary says the driver of China's national strategy is to achieve China's "great rejuvenation" by 2049, the 2025 report sees China overall goal as the displacement of the U.S. as the world's most powerful nation.


https://x.com/tshugart3/status/2005315631655338220?s=61&t=mgTxr...

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The new report's exec summary makes a pretty strong statement: the PLA is making progress specifically toward its goal to be able to achieve victory over Taiwan and balance against the U.S. - that China expects to be able to "fight and win a war on Taiwan by the end of 2027".

https://x.com/tshugart3/status/2005315635921010802?s=61&t=mgTxr...

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The new report also states that China has been practicing components of all of its options to force Taiwan unification, including strikes on U.S. forces in the Pacific that could "seriously challenge and disrupt" them out to 1500-2000 nm.


https://x.com/tshugart3/status/2005315642363367634?s=61&t=mgTxr...

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In the section on PLA Navy modernization (which lacks some data like total hull count predictions as in previous reports), we see a statement that's been making some headlines: that the PLAN aims to produce six MORE aircraft carriers over the next decade.


https://x.com/tshugart3/status/2005315675242598408?s=61&t=mgTxr...

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On the topic of PLA modernization, we see confirmation China's been testing 6th-gen aircraft, with an operational timeline of 2035.

We're also told China's KJ-3000 AEW aircraft will probably be the first to use digital radar, though I don't know why the E-2D & E-7 don't count?


https://x.com/tshugart3/status/2005315671698313705?s=61&t=mgTxr...





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This is the first time I can recall seeing a PRC carrier force size prediction from DoD, and tbh I find it somewhat astonishing.

This means that in addition to the 2 ski-jump carriers, and Fujian which is on sea trials now, and the purported CVN (not confirmed here by DoD)...




https://x.com/tshugart3/status/2005315678409261370?s=61&t=mgTxr...

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...DoD expects the PLA to at least launch five MORE carriers in the next 10 years?

For perspective, the USN will be buying its next five carriers over more than twice that timeline so...given that U.S. carriers are deployed globally, they will end up outnumbered in the Pacific.


https://x.com/tshugart3/status/2005315682020528161?s=61&t=mgTxr...

China To Surpass U.S. Navy In Submarine Strength, Match Aircraft Carriers By 2035, Pentagon Says

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/china-to-surpass-u-s-navy/


China already possesses the world’s largest maritime fighting force, with 234 warships compared to the U.S. Navy’s 219.

This count of China’s fighting ships includes all known, active-duty, manned, missile- or torpedo-armed ships or submarines displacing more than 1,000 metric tons, including the 22 missile-armed corvettes recently transferred to the China Coast Guard, but not the approximately 80 missile-armed small patrol craft operated by the PLAN.

However, the PLAN was still years behind the US Navy in two critical domains: submarines and aircraft carriers.

In fact, in both maritime domains, the US Navy enjoys a qualitative and quantitative edge.




Currently, the US Navy operates half of the world’s aircraft carriers, and till some years ago, it was widely assumed that despite PLAN’s impressive progress in building a naval fleet, Beijing would need several decades to match the might of the US Navy in terms of aircraft carriers.


U.S. Vs China’s Carrier Fleet

The US Navy currently operates 11 aircraft carriers, which constitute half of the world’s fleet of 22 carriers.



The US Navy’s fleet of 11 carriers includes 10 Nimitz-class carriers and one, newer, technologically advanced USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78).


China is a distant second with three aircraft carriers. Its latest aircraft carrier, Fujian, entered service last month.




India, the UK, and Italy all operate a fleet of two aircraft carriers. The US Navy’s aircraft carrier fleet is also technologically most advanced.

A


China is yet to build a nuclear-powered carrier. However, unconfirmed media reports suggest that Beijing is building a nuclear-powered carrier (Type 004). Beijing has not yet confirmed construction of a new aircraft carrier.

Furthermore, only two countries have built aircraft carriers equipped with the Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS), the US Navy’s Ford class and China’s Fujian.


Following that, the third-in-class, USS Enterprise (CVN-80), is facing even longer delays, now expected in July 2030, due to supply chain and material issues, according to recent Navy budget reports.

By 2035, the US Navy is expected to maintain a fleet of 11 aircraft carriers, a number mandated by US Federal law as necessary for maintaining a global presence.

The mandate appears in Title 10, U.S. Code, Section 8062, and is a congressionally mandated minimum requirement enacted to ensure that the Navy can sustain global operations without leaving major regions unattended.

A fleet of 11 aircraft carriers means the US Navy has four to six carriers fully deployable at any given time.



China, on the other hand, currently has three aircraft carriers. China’s latest, and its first indigenously built aircraft carrier, the Fujian, entered service last month.

“In the maritime domain, the PLA Navy (PLAN) completed the inaugural sea trials of its third aircraft carrier—Fujian, also known as CV-18—in May. This is the PLAN’s first indigenously designed aircraft carrier. It is larger than the PLAN’s previous two aircraft carriers and is its first flat-deck carrier,” the Pentagon report said.





“The PLAN likely intends for Fujian’s future airwing to include the J-35 stealth fighter, J-15T fighter jet, J-15D electronic warfare aircraft, Z-20 helicopter, KJ-600 early warning aircraft, and various UAVs,” it added.

China is also working on its fourth aircraft carrier (Type 004), which, according to analysts, could be China’s first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.

The report also highlighted an exercise between Liaoning and Shandong strike groups in the South China Sea last October, which marked the first time the PLAN had held a dual-carrier drill.





However, China aims to build six additional aircraft carriers over the next decade as part of its efforts to match US naval power, the Pentagon said in its report.