Pakistan’s #flood crisis could be an opportunity for real change. Devastating floods have also hit #Florida. Considering the global nature of #climate challenge, at some point #US & #Pakistan must find the courage to work together on "Green Marshall Plan" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/29/pakistan-flood-c...

This week, Americans are understandably focused on the hurricane-related flooding in Florida, which is causing tragedy for thousands. Yet there is little attention in the United States to the fact that Pakistan has been flooded since mid-June, a catastrophe that is still causing unspeakable suffering for tens of millions.


Both of these crises owe much to the same phenomenon — climate change. But aside from some limited aid, there’s scant U.S.-Pakistan cooperation on long-term solutions. That has to change, according to Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who was in the United States this week pitching his proposal for a “Green Marshall Plan.” In meetings with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, U.N. Secretary General António Guterres and others, Zardari argued for a way those countries most responsible for climate change can help those countries most affected — and, in turn, help themselves.

It’s a big idea, and there are reasons for skepticism. But considering the global nature of the climate challenge, at some point the United States and Pakistan must find the courage to work together. In the process, the two countries might find a way back to being true allies, which would benefit both sides and balance China’s rising influence in the South Asia region.

“We have to find the opportunity in this crisis,” Zardari told me. “There are two ways of us going forward. We can do this dirtier, badly, in a way that will be worse for us and worse for the environment, or we can try to build back better in a greener, more climate-resilient manner.”

Zardari’s call for a “Green Marshall Plan” is meant to evoke America’s historical penchant for pursuing its enlightened self-interest. The idea also plays into President Biden’s own Build Back Better World concept. The theory is that Western government support for private-sector investment in climate-resilient, ecologically sustainable infrastructure in Pakistan would redound to the benefit of Western industry and help mitigate the future climate-related crises that are sure to come.

Florida will have several days of rain. In Pakistan, it rained for more than three months, submerging one-third of the country in a body of water than can be seen from space. The high floodwaters have created a cascade of problems, devastating Pakistan’s agriculture, manufacturing, trade and public health sectors.

Floods are almost a perennial occurrence in Pakistan, but this year’s continuing disaster is uniquely cataclysmic, impacting more than 33 million people (more than Florida’s entire population), including 16 million children and more than 600,000 pregnant women, according to the United Nations.

The flood and its aftereffects also risk throwing Pakistan right back into the economic crisis it was clawing its way out of. Pakistan was already on the hook to pay back $1 billion of the $10 billion it owes the Paris Club by the end of this year. Islamabad also owes some $30 billion to China. Now the country is being forced to borrow billions more to deal with the current situation.

The real question, Zardari said, is not whether the international community will come through with short-term aid and debt relief. The challenge is for the world to realize that Pakistan’s flood crisis won’t be the last or the worst, meaning the international response must take a far broader view.

In a world where covid-19, the Russia-Ukraine war and the worldwide economic slowdown are commanding the attention of policymakers in Western capitals, the bandwidth for new and expensive ideas is narrow. Zardari knows it’s a tough sell.

Pakistan’s #flood crisis could be an opportunity for real change. Devastating floods have also hit #Florida. Considering the global nature of #climate challenge, at some point #US & #Pakistan must find the courage to work together on "Green Marshall Plan" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/29/pakistan-flood-c...


In a world where covid-19, the Russia-Ukraine war and the worldwide economic slowdown are commanding the attention of policymakers in Western capitals, the bandwidth for new and expensive ideas is narrow. Zardari knows it’s a tough sell.

“I understand that the concept of a Green Marshall Plan might not have many players. But that doesn’t change the fact that I believe it genuinely is the solution,” he said. “We have to pause our geopolitical differences and unite to face this existential threat to mankind.”

The concept of investing in green infrastructure in a coordinated, global way is not new; but under the current plans, it’s not happening. Global promises to invest $100 billion in the Green Climate Fund for developing countries by 2020 have been broken.

And while humanitarian aid is not primarily about strategic competition, it is worth noting that China has its own project called the Green Silk Road, and that Beijing is pushing propaganda in Pakistan claiming it is more generous than the United States (which is not true). The need to counter Chinese influence was a big reason the White House hosted leaders of 14 Pacific Island nations this week, all of which are suffering disproportionately from climate change.

In Washington, Pakistan has become something of a pariah, following years of disagreements over Afghanistan and other issues. But the end of that war provides an opening for a rethink. To be sure, Pakistan’s democracy looks shaky at times — but then again, so does America’s. The two allies still share many long-term interests, and saving the planet should be at the top of the list.

A day after #India EAM Subramanian #Jaishankar's visit to #Washington, #US imposes #sanction against #Indian company for ‘clandestine’ #Iran #oil purchases. It played a critical role in concealing the origin of the Iranian shipments for #trade. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/us-imposes-sanction-against-...

In the first such move against oil shipments to India, the U.S. Treasury department announced it had imposed sanctions against a Mumbai based petrochemical company amongst several entities accused of selling Iranian petroleum products.

The company, Mumbai based Tibalaji in particular that was accused purchasing shipments that were then sent to China, is the first Indian entity to face the U.S. designation under unilateral sanctions passed in 2018-19, after the U.S. Trump administration’s decision to walk out of the nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran. While India has officially refused to endorse the “unilateral sanctions” of the U.S., the Modi government agreed to end all oil imports from Iran in 2019, that made up about 11% of India’s intake, rather than face the sanctions.

Announcing the move on Thursday, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) said it had sanctioned the “international network of companies” that were involved in the sale of “hundreds of millions of dollars” worth Iranian petrochemical products to South Asia and East Asia.

“Today’s action targets Iranian brokers and several front companies in the UAE, Hong Kong, and India that have facilitated financial transfers and shipping of Iranian petroleum and petrochemical products,” the treasury department said, accusing the sanctioned companies of “concealing the origin” of the shipments from Iran.

“India-based petrochemical company Tibalaji Petrochem Private Limited has purchased millions of dollars’ worth of Triliance-brokered petrochemical products, including methanol and base oil, for onward shipment to China,” the Treasury statement added, explaining that any U.S.-based assets owned by the sanctioned entities in the U.S. will be blocked, while personnel dealing with the Iranian shipments would also face “enforcement action”.

The U.S. claimed that the Indian company had worked with sanctioned entities like Triliance, a petroleum and petrochemical brokerage firm, as well as Iran Chemical Industries Investment Company and Middle East Kimiya Pars Co., for oil orders which were “ultimately shipped to India”.

Neither the Ministry of External Affairs, nor Tibalaji Petrochemicals responded to requests for a comment on the U.S. decision, that came a day after External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar concluded his visit to the U.S., where he met several senior officials including U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

The Iranian embassy said it had no knowledge of any Indian company that was “registered to deal with such businesses”. However, a diplomat familiar with the issue said that the U.S. move was “hostile”, and called the sanctions “illegal”. The diplomat said, “Iran has never taken permission from the U.S. and accordingly it will adopt any necessary measure to ensure its legal rights and national interests.”

“Today we took further actions to disrupt efforts to evade sanctions on the sale of Iranian petroleum and petrochemical products,” Mr. Blinken tweeted. When asked, neither the MEA nor U.S. officials commented on whether Mr. Blinken had discussed the impending sanctions with Mr. Jaishankar in Washington.

China and India abstained on a vote to condemn Russia's annexation of Ukraine's land just weeks after Putin acknowledged their concerns about the war

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-india-abstain-on-condemning-r...

China and India, key partners to Russia, have recently expressed concerns to Putin about the war.
Putin on Friday declared four regions of Ukraine part of Russia, a move rejected by the West.
In a UN vote condemning the annexation as illegal, China and India both abstained.

Why India’s protest over US-Pakistan F-16 deal is a storm in a teacup

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3194317/why-india...

Pakistan’s old F-16s pose no threat to India, given their use is restricted to counterterrorism efforts within its borders and are considered inferior to the newer JF-17s, jointly developed with China
The deal to maintain the F-16s may well be a response to the resurgence in terrorism spilling over from Afghanistan after the US withdrawal
India and Pakistan have been engaged in yet more angry exchanges of late – but, this time, on a matter other than the routine and threadbare allegations of sponsoring terrorism in each other’s territories.
The latest episode kicked off on September 7, when the US Defence Security Cooperation Agency said it was considering a US$450 million military deal with Pakistan to upgrade its F-16 fighter jet programme, including the engines, electronic warfare and other related hardware, software and spare parts.
The deal, since approved, covers the technical maintenance and overhauling of Pakistan’s F-16 fleet, which is now more than three decades old. Few analysts expected it to turn into a rancorous diplomatic scuffle between New Delhi and Islamabad.
But the matter was abruptly pushed into the limelight when Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar responded caustically to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s remarks on the Pakistan arms deal.
Blinken had said the US deal was part of an initiative to boost Pakistan’s “capability to deal with terrorist threats emanating from Pakistan or from the region”.
Jaishankar, at an unofficial event in Washington, said: “For someone to say, ‘I am doing this because it is all counterterrorism content’ … you are not fooling anybody by saying these things.”
To no one’s surprise, Jaishankar’s remarks sparked a severe reaction from Islamabad and clarification from Blinken, who reasserted categorically that the package did not include any new capabilities, weapons or munitions.
Three key points are noteworthy, regardless of the ongoing arguments between India and Pakistan, that make Jaishankar’s statement look more like habitual rhetoric than genuine concern. First, since the 1980s when the United States handed over the first batch of F-16s to Pakistan, none has been used in a war or an operation against any country, including India.
Indeed, the F-16s have only ever been deployed in counterterrorism operations within the country. And the only time they have been used extensively by the Pakistan Air Force has been against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorists in the volatile Swat Valley region bordering Afghanistan.

Why India’s protest over US-Pakistan F-16 deal is a storm in a teacup

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3194317/why-india...

Before 2014, the Pakistani government exerted little control in the Swat Valley and its adjacent areas, which were in the hands of the TPP and other militant groups, including the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Turkestan Islamic Movement and the Haqqani network. With an alliance of these groups ruling the area, almost a million residents were forced to move to other parts of Pakistan.
In July 2014, Pakistan’s army and air force jointly launched Operation Zarb-e-Azb, a massive anti-terrorism campaign to free the Swat valley and surrounding area from control of the militants.
Due to the region’s mountainous geography, it would have been practically impossible for the ground forces to complete the task without aerial support to attack the terrorist hideouts. And the F-16 Falcons, the only advanced fighter jets in the air force at that time, were more than capable of precision attacks on the militants’ base camps.
Thus, the F-16s played a major role in the success of Operation Zarb-e-Azb, and the restoration of control of the region by the Pakistani government.
In 2021, however, with the arrival of the Taliban government in Afghanistan, the militant groups began to penetrate the Swat valley, Bajaur, Mohmand and North Waziristan areas again and set about relaunching their terrorist activities.
In the past six months, more than 250 terrorist attacks carried out by the TTP have been reported in the area. And, indeed, perhaps it is this resurgence of the TTP and terrorist-related activities that has led the Biden administration to agree to the deal to maintain Pakistan’s F-16 fleet. New Delhi is also well aware that Pakistan needs refurbished F-16s to tackle terrorism in this part of the country.
The second point is that Pakistan’s air force is no longer dependent on F-16s and has been shifting its operational load to its fleet of JF-17 Thunders – fighter jets jointly developed by China and Pakistan. Today, Pakistan has an operational fleet of 134 JF-17s, compared with just 75 F-16s.
From the air force’s perspective, and given its current needs, the JF-17 is far superior and its reliance on them will only increase. The US deal to provide maintenance support for the ageing F-16 fleet will not render them any more of a threat to India.
Finally, Islamabad and Washington have specifically agreed that the F-16s cannot be used for any offensive purpose outside Pakistan’s airspace.
So India has nothing to worry about with this latest maintenance deal. If anything, New Delhi should perhaps be more concerned about the growing cooperation between Pakistan and China on the JF-17, which is being continuously improved by joint research and development teams.
India’s foreign minister knows very well that his protests over the US package are merely part of diplomatic formalities, and that he is unlikely to receive a positive response from the Biden administration – which is more concerned about containing the mess it left behind following the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, which is now once again spilling over into northern Pakistan.

US warns India on dealing with Russia: “Pakistan is Plan B”
October 02, 2022 Wajahat S. Khan
https://www.gzeromedia.com/us-warns-india-on-dealing-with-russia-pa...

After years of favoring New Delhi, the US is now back to balancing between India and Pakistan.

The decade-long deterioration of ties with Islamabad, propelled by Pakistan’s support for the Taliban in Afghanistan and tilt toward China, had shaped Washington’s conventional thinking into a neat binary: that a democratic, anti-China India is ‘in’ and an autocratic, pro-China Pakistan is ‘out’ of the American camp.

That’s no longer the case in America’s response to India’s consistent hedging and betting on Russia, as well as Pakistan’s diplomatic overtures and counterterrorism cooperation. Indeed, the future of US positioning in South Asia seems to be shifting, as Washington resumes playing ball with both nuclear-armed rivals like it’s done for decades.

America’s pal, but Russia’s BFF. On Saturday, India abstained from voting for a US-sponsored UN Security Council resolution slamming Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory. This wasn’t the first time the Indians have refused to back the Americans — every UN resolution tabled against Russian aggression in Ukraine since the beginning of the war has seen India walk away from the crime scene.

For India watchers who acknowledge New Delhi’s stated policy of strategic autonomy — basically a we-will-do-the-right-thing-but-in-our-own-way approach to a values-based order — the latest abstention was a disappointment, coming just days after PM Narendra Modi was praised by Washington for lecturing Vladimir Putin about this not being “an era of war.”

Although Indian diplomats insist that dialogue is the only answer to settling disputes, Modi’s government is now being criticized even at home for speaking from both sides of its mouth, especially as the war takes on a nuclear dimension.

The frustration is premised on a contradiction. Though it is still counted as a strategic partner of the US and an important teammate on the Quad, India’s decades-long defense ties with Moscow continue to thrive.

The Indians are shoring up the Russian economy by buying more fossil fuels (albeit at steep discounts). This year, oil imports are up thirty-fold from 2021, and coal purchases have quadrupled. Meanwhile, the Indians remain Moscow’s biggest arms customer and continue buying sophisticated Russian weapons despite the risk of triggering US sanctions.

This attitude of sacrifice-rules-for-money by India shows that “since Russia invaded Ukraine, Modi and his government have become ultra-realist on foreign policy,” says Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation.

The Indians, he explains, “have refused to condemn Russian aggression and its undermining of the rules-based international order, which New Delhi claims to uphold along with like-minded democratic states,” he said. Rather, India has prioritized discounted Russian oil — a business over values approach — which doesn't say much about India’s commitment to the rules-based system that it claims to support.

Pakistan as Plan B? But Washington isn’t just sitting pretty watching India play both sides. Responding to New Delhi’s hedging through its own, the US is gearing up to balance the military relationship with Islamabad.

After suspending all military aid in 2018 due to Pakistan’s support for the Taliban in Afghanistan, the US State Department reversed course last month, resuming critical military assistance to Islamabad. India, of course, is up in arms. After all, the F-16 fighter-bomber — which the Americans are servicing for the Pakistanis — was used to shoot down at least one Indian Air Force MiG-21 in 2019.

US warns India on dealing with Russia: “Pakistan is Plan B”
October 02, 2022 Wajahat S. Khan
https://www.gzeromedia.com/us-warns-india-on-dealing-with-russia-pa...

While the State Department has pushed back against India’s protests by saying it values its relations with both sides, Pakistan seems to have been let out of Washington’s doghouse. Last week, State fêted Pakistan’s foreign minister for a week-long sojourn, topped with a ceremony commemorating 75 years of diplomatic ties at the Museum of American Diplomacy. (His Indian counterpart — who was in town around the same time complaining about the Pakistani weapons deal — was also given the royal treatment, with a dinner at Blinken’s home.)

As far as the Pakistanis are concerned, the boys are back in town. This week, the Pentagon is hosting Pakistan’s all-powerful army chief, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, who played a crucial role in the ousting of former prime minister Imran Khan, an anti-American populist. On Gen. Bajwa’s agenda: Pakistani support for Washington’s over-the-horizon counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan, as well as grappling with the Taliban, ISIS-K and al-Qaida.

“The US seems to be finally recognizing that despite the full-throated pronouncements from New Delhi about a rules-based international order, India’s need for cheap Russian oil and Russian weapons override everything else,” says Uzair Younis, director of the Pakistan Initiative at the Atlantic Council.

Given this context, he adds, Washington is finally realizing that it must also pursue “a parallel diplomatic path with Pakistan, especially given that New Delhi is unlikely to be weaned off its addiction to Russian energy and weapons any time soon.”

However, India will remain important for America. Surely, this maneuvering hasn’t ruptured the proximity between Washington and New Delhi – China remains their common rival, after all — but it is being seen as a tactical response to India’s dealing with the Russians.

Plus, after years of increasing dependency on China, the Pakistanis are only too eager to balance their interests with Washington, but only till the Chinese come back to them with a better offer for their rentier state.

Also, the resumption of US military aid to Pakistan — still paltry compared to America’s broad defense, economic and tech ties with India — has not disturbed India’s standing as a “strategic partner,” Still, since Washington’s recent moves have clearly irked New Delhi, are they going to reset US priorities in South Asia?

“One of the enduring challenges for the US-India relationship is that each country insists on maintaining cordial ties with the other’s key rival,” says Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center.

This problem appeared to be working itself out in recent years, as India reduced its share of Russian arms imports and the US cut off security aid to Pakistan. But now we are seeing a return to what Kugelman calls the “old normal” — India reasserting its friendship with Russia and the US restarting security ties with Pakistan.

“At the end of the day, neither New Delhi nor Washington are willing to let go of these longstanding relationships,” he explains.

Still, what the Americans are doing to the Indians — a diplomatic tit-for-tat, really — makes the long-term trajectory of India-Russia and US-Pakistan relations more unsettled than that of US-India relations.

For Kugmelman, “they’re still realities in the here and now. It’s little more than a nuisance for US-India relations, but a nuisance nonetheless.”

Bottom line: The Pakistanis might be back in play in Washington, but India’s not getting on any American blacklist anytime soon. Regardless, the US has put on its Great Power suit, and sent New Delhi a bill about the cost of doing business with the Russians.

JF-17 Block 3 vs. F-16C: How Pakistan’s New Fighter Will Leave the American Fighting Falcon Far Behind


https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/jf-17-block-3-vs-f-16c-wh...

With the JF-17 Block 3 fighter unveiled in December 2019, and expected to enter service from around 2022, the aircraft will outperform all existing Pakistani fighters, the F-16C included, by a considerable margin. While the new aircraft has a new engine and makes more use of light composite materials for a superior flight performance, including the ability to exceed Mach 2 speeds, the platform’s most significant improvements are arguably those made to its beyond visual range capabilities. The JF-17 Block 3’s avionics are nothing less than state of the art, with a heads up display, a full glass cockpit and new single panel multi functional display, and the aircraft also integrates a powerful AESA radar - possibly the KLJ-7A. An AESA radar will be key to the JF-17 Block 3’s performance, and its sophistication will compensate for the relatively small size of the radar the fighter can accommodate and provide the situational awareness needed to make effective use of longer ranged munitions such as the PL-15 air to air missile. This missile has approximately double the range of the AIM-120C used by the F-16C - approximately 200km where the AIM-120 is restricted to around 105km. The PL-15 has been integrated onto China’s new generation of fighters which all integrate AESA radars, the J-20, J-16, and J-10C, and has reportedly begun integration onto older designs such as the J-11B.



Advantages of integrating an AESA radar not only allows the JF-17 Block 3 to detect targets at far longer ranges, and to track and lock onto more targets simultaneously, but its is also less prone to jamming and leaves a far lower radar signature - meaning it is both more reliable and makes the fighter more difficult to detect. Alongside state of the art Chinese electronic warfare systems, and what appears to be a radar cross section reducing profile, a combination of modern avionics, and AESA radar and PL-15 missiles will make the JF-17 Block 3 an extremely lethal fighter for beyond visual range combat considerably more capable than any fighter currently in Pakistani service including the F-16. While some more sophisticated variants of the F-16 can boast capabilities which rival the JF-17 Block 3, namely the F-16E and F-2, only two countries operate these aircraft which have not been made available to the vast majority of clients. Compared to the JF-17 Block 3, the F-16C is expected to have a slower speed, lower sortie rate, lower operational altitude, poorer situational awareness and electronic warfare capabilities, inferior anti shipping capabilities and a considerably lower air to air engagement range. The JF-17 Block 3 is thus expected to form the elite of the Pakistani fleet, and have considerable export success to a range of interested clients such as Egypt and Myanmar. A more ambitious light fighter project is currently under way to succeed the JF-17 Block 3, the Project AZM stealth fighter program, which is also being pursued jointly by China and Pakistan.

Nigerian Air Force using targeting pod with JF-17
by Jack Iraboh

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/nigerian-air-force-u...


The Aselpod is almost certainly in service with the Nigerian Air Force. (Aselsan)

A Nigerian Air Force (NAF) JF-17 Thunder multirole fighter has been seen carrying what is almost certainly an Aselpod targeting pod made by Turkish company Aselsan.

A short clip posted on social media on 14 August showed a Nigerian JF-17 with the number 720 taxiing with a dark grey pod on its centreline hardpoint.

Earlier this year, a photograph emerged showing a man next to a JF-17 carrying a targeting pod with an air intake on its starboard side that looked more like the one on the Aselpod than the smaller intakes on the Chinese WMD-7 targeting pod that has also been integrated with the aircraft.

The man, evidently not Nigerian, wore a badge with the Pakistani flag and what appeared to be ‘Aselpod' written on it. However, his cap had the name of the NAF's 131 Engineering Group on it, indicating he was helping that unit with the new pod.

Aselsan integrated the Aselpod on the Pakistan Air Force's JF-17s under a contract that was first reported in 2017. The Pakistan Aeronautical Complex delivered the three JF-17s ordered by the NAF in March 2021.

The photograph also showed a bomb with a laser-guidance kit on one of the JF-17's wings. This could be an Mk 82 fitted with a GBU-12 Paveway II kit as the United States approved the sale of these weapons to Nigeria along with the 12 A-29 Super Tucano turboprop aircraft that were delivered to the NAF in 2021.

How China and Pakistan Forged Close Ties
Though ties between China and Pakistan began in the wake of the 1962 Sino-Indian clash, China did not embrace the relationship. By the mid-2000s, the shift in U.S.-India relations and China's own global ambitions made Pakistan a critical partner for China.

Article by Manjari Chatterjee Miller

https://www.cfr.org/article/how-china-and-pakistan-forged-close-ties

On a visit to China almost a decade ago, I had a conversation with a Beijing-based Chinese foreign policy analyst. The subject of China’s relationship with Pakistan came up and the analyst laughed ruefully. Although he acknowledged Pakistan saw the bilateral relationship as a valuable friendship, he implied that was not how China saw it. China was in some ways reluctant, I gathered, even to be seen as cultivating a friendship with Pakistan. At the time, the idea of taoguang yanghui (hide your strength and bide your time) still held sway in China, and the Chinese government was not only wary of being seen as an international spoiler state but also siding with one. China saw no need to trumpet the relationship, and Pakistan needed China more than the other way around.

---------


Pakistan is now an important partner for China. The relationship raises the specter that India may, in the future, face a two-front war, a scenario that would have been implausible a decade ago. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and embassies in South Asia often tweet sympathetically about the relationship—including on topics such as Pakistan’s welcome of the Chinese-sponsored Global Security Initiative, China-Pakistan football matches, China’s flood aid, and pandemic cooperation. At an MFA press conference earlier this year, the spokesperson gushed that, “the bond of friendship and mutual assistance between the Chinese and Pakistani people is stronger than gold, and the two countries’ iron-clad friendship is deeply rooted in the people and boasts strong vitality.”

This is not to say the relationship is problem-free. China’s wariness about Islamist militants in Xinjiang and their links to Pakistani militants, its concern about Chinese citizens working in Pakistan who have been the targets of terror attacks, the sporadic opposition in Pakistan to CPEC projects, and China’s caution about weighing in on Kashmir (despite its recent condemnation of India’s abrogation of Article 370 and Wang Yi’s reference to the territory at the Organization of Islamic Cooperation meeting) all continue to be sticking points. Yet this is no longer just a relationship, but a genuine partnership. India should take note.

#Russia becomes #India’s 2nd-largest crude #oil supplier after #SaudiArabia. India’s September imports of Russian oil rose 18.5% from August reaching 879,000 barrels per day (bpd) of #Russian oil in September 2022.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/russia...

India’s September imports of Russian oil rose 18.5% from August after falling for two months, making it the country’s second-largest crude supplier after Saudi Arabia, according to energy cargo tracker Vortexa. The import of 879,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil in September is the second highest in a month ever for India after June’s 933,000 bpd.

“India may consider importing more Russian crude this quarter as refiners ramp up runs to meet the seasonal rise in domestic demand an ..

#India’s words are anti-war, but #NewDelhi’s actions are propping up #Putin’s regime. Rather than cutting economic ties with #Kremlin, #Modi is undermining Western sanctions by increasing purchases of #Russian #oil, #coal and #fertilizer. #US #Ukraine
https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/03/india/india-russia-war-putin-modi-in...

This apparent contradiction exemplifies India’s unique position on the war: verbally distancing itself from Russia, while continuing to maintain pivotal ties with Moscow.

Modi’s “stronger language to Putin” should be seen in the context of rising food, fuel and fertilizer prices, and the “hardships that was creating for other countries,” said Deepa Ollapally, research professor and director of the Rising Powers Initiative at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University.

“There’s a certain level of impatience (for India) with the intensification of the war,” she said. “There’s a feeling that Putin is pushing India’s limits because in some ways, it’s put itself out on a limb. And it’s not a comfortable position for India to be in.”

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When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Vladimir Putin “today’s era is not of war” last month, the West welcomed his comments as a sign the world’s largest democracy was finally coming off the fence about Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron praised Modi and the White House lauded what it called a “statement of principle.”

But the reality, analysts say, is less straightforward.

Rather than cutting economic ties with the Kremlin, India has undermined Western sanctions by increasing its purchases of Russian oil, coal and fertilizer – giving Putin a vital financial lifeline.

New Delhi has repeatedly abstained from votes condemning Russia at the United Nations – providing Moscow with a veneer of international legitimacy. And in August, India participated in Russia’s large-scale Vostok military exercises alongside China, Belarus, Mongolia and Tajikistan – where Moscow paraded its vast arsenal.

Last week, India abstained from another UN draft resolution condemning Russia over its sham referendums in four regions of Ukraine, which have been used as a pretext by Moscow to illegally annex Ukrainian territory – significantly upping the stakes in the war.

India is “deeply disturbed” by the developments in Ukraine, said Ruchira Kamboj, New Delhi’s permanent representative to the UN, but stopped short of attributing blame and urged an “immediate ceasefire and resolution of the conflict.”

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‘A tale of two Indias’
As Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s border in December last year, Modi welcomed Putin in New Delhi during the 21st India-Russia Annual Summit.

“My dear friend, President Vladimir Putin,” Modi said, “your attachment with India and your personal commitment symbolize the importance of India-Russia relations and I am very grateful to you for that.”

New Delhi has strong ties with Moscow dating back to the Cold War, and India remains heavily reliant on the Kremlin for military equipment – a vital link given India’s ongoing tensions at its shared Himalayan border with an increasingly assertive China.

But according to analysts, India is concerned that Putin’s increasing isolation could draw Moscow closer to Beijing – and that requires India to tread carefully.

New Delhi’s contorted maneuvering in its stance on Russia’s aggression in Ukraine was on show when, alongside China, it took part in Russia’s Vostok military exercises – a move attacked by its Western partners.

“This can be seen as a tale of two Indias,” said Ollapally. “On the one hand, they are pushing back against China and then exercising along with China and Russia, giving Russia a certain amount of legitimacy.”

Christopher Clary
@clary_co
Shishir Gupta: "It is quite evident that the rise of India will not be benign and will be contested both by the West as much as by the East. India should be prepared to go solo." https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/from-f-16-upgrades-to-ajk...

https://twitter.com/clary_co/status/1577288930810028032?s=20&t=...

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From F-16 upgrades to AJK, have US-Pak relations rekindled again?
By Shishir Gupta

It is quite evident from the chain of events that the US wants to shore up the Shehbaz Sharif regime and Pakistan economically so that an opportunistic Imran Khan, who weaponised a diplomatic cipher into an anti-US campaign before his government was ousted, never comes back to power. The so-called diplomatic cipher has apparently gone missing from the prime minister’s office in Islamabad and perhaps is in the custody of the Pakistan Army Chief Gen Qamar Jawed Bajwa in Rawalpindi.

New Delhi has taken note of all these events and senior officials believe that the transactional relationship between US and major non-NATO ally has been kick-started again. And Pakistan’s proven ability to do a strategic U-turn, produce and expose a top terrorist from its tactical locker be it Ayman Al Zawahiri and its ability to play both China and US to its short-term advantage remains quite unmatched.

Unlike Pakistan, India under Narendra Modi with its civilization, culture, and history, stands up for its national interest be it on Ukraine war and global good like Climate Change. It is quite clear that Pakistan will use the F-16 upgrades including air-to-air missiles against India and not against any third country.

Fact is that the US transactional relationship with Pakistan pays off in the long run as it can sell top of the line weapons and life-cycle maintenance to Rawalpindi unlike India which wants full transfer of technology for any acquired hardware platform from America.

Given that Pakistan needs US help to secure a multi-billion IMF loan to repay Chinese debt incurred on white elephant projects at exorbitant interest rates, the US-Pak relationship will deepen in future with Islamabad asking no questions. The US defence assistance to Pakistan came at a time when Islamabad needed money for providing flood relief.

While India knows that US needs New Delhi and vice versa on Indo-Pacific to counter a belligerent China, it is also aware that America continues to look the other way when it comes to proscribed Khalistani SFJ organisation and its leader who spews venom against India just as Pakistanis continue to send terrorists to India to cause mayhem.

The same is the situation with US allies Canada and UK with the latter being the principal advisor to Washington on Af-Pak region with strong bias towards Pakistan. One must not forget that disastrous role played by UK Chief of Defence Staff Nick Carter in getting the Taliban regime installed and US forces unceremoniously kicked out of Kabul.

Although India and the US share a robust bilateral relationship with deep sharing of intelligence and mutually beneficial information and high end technology, the Indian diaspora is now wondering whether citizens of a friendly power must wait for over 800 days to get a US visa.

It is quite evident that the rise of India will not be benign and will be contested both by the West as much as by the East. India should be prepared to go solo.

Derek J. Grossman
@DerekJGrossman
The US-India partnership will survive a resuscitated US-Pakistan partnership, but it won’t be pretty. https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/from-f-16-upgrades-to-ajk...

https://twitter.com/DerekJGrossman/status/1577300303489413122?s=20&...

On October 4th, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III hosted General Qamar Javed Bajwa, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, at the Pentagon during the 75th anniversary of relations between the United States and Pakistan. This long-standing partnership continues today with discussions focused on opportunities to address key mutual defense interests.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3179845/reado...

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US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Tuesday will host Pakistan Army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa at the Pentagon for talks amidst signs of enhanced military engagement between the two countries.

Last week, Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari was in the town meeting top officials of the Biden Administration, including Secretary of State Tony Blinken.

Bajwa will be accorded an "enhanced honour cordon" at the riverside entrance of the Pentagon by Austin following which the two will be holding a meeting on bilateral and regional issues.

America's engagement with Pakistan, in particular with its military, has increased in recent months. Last month, the US announced a USD450 million F-16 fighter jet sustenance package for Pakistan.

https://wap.business-standard.com/article-amp/international/us-defe...

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Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
Potential agenda points for Pakistan Army Chief DC visit:
-Flood relief (Army has played a major role)
-US-Pak CT cooperation in Afg
-Afg/Pak border security
-Pakistan's CT efforts (Pakistan set to be removed from FATF gray list)
-Proposed F16 deal
-Future of US mil aid to Pak

https://twitter.com/MichaelKugelman/status/1577291079430307843?s=20...

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Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
FWIW, there’s been more momentum on the non-security side of late, and ultimately the relationship will be healthier and more stable over the long term if it emphasizes that side of the relationship.

https://twitter.com/MichaelKugelman/status/1577301905243521027?s=20...

Pakistan Army chief General Bajwa meets U.S. Defence Secretary, NSA

https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/pakistan-army-chief-gen...

The Army chief thanked the U.S. officials for their support for the rescue and rehabilitation of flood victims in Pakistan

Pakistan's Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa has called on U.S. Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin, National Security Adviser Jacob Sullivan and other top officials and discussed matters of mutual interest, regional security and bilateral cooperation in various fields.

Mr. Bajwa's visit to the United States comes weeks before he is expected to retire after an extended six-year tenure.

"This long-standing partnership continues today with discussions focused on opportunities to address key mutual defence interests," the Pentagon said in a statement on Tuesday.

Mr. Austin hosted General Bajwa at the Pentagon during the 75th anniversary of relations between the United States and Pakistan, said the statement.

During the meeting on Tuesday, the leaders discussed matters of mutual interest, regional security and bilateral cooperation in various fields, the Dawn newspaper said.

Mr. Bajwa also met Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman.

The Army chief thanked the U.S. officials for their support and reiterated that assistance from “our global partners would be vital for the rescue and rehabilitation of flood victims in Pakistan,” it quoted a Pakistani military statement as saying.

The floods have killed over 1,600 people and displaced more than 33 million others in Pakistan.

The floods have left a third of the country submerged under water and caused estimated damage of nearly $30 billion.

Both sides noted that Pakistan and the U.S. had a long history of bilateral cooperation and that both countries shall continue improving their economic, trade and investment ties.

His visit to the U.S. comes days after Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari's trip to the country.

During his visit, Mr. Bilawal met top officials of the Biden Administration, including Secretary of State Tony Blinken.

America’s engagement with Pakistan, in particular with its military, has increased in recent months. Last month, the U.S. announced a $450 million F-16 fighter jet sustenance package for Pakistan.

U.S. Ambassador Donald Blome Visits AJK to Strengthen U.S.-Pakistan Trade and People-to-People Ties

https://pk.usembassy.gov/u-s-ambassador-donald-blome-visits-ajk-to-...

Islamabad, October 5, 2022 – Ambassador Donald Blome visited Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) October 2-4 to promote the U.S.-Pakistan partnership and highlight the two countries’ deep economic, cultural, and people-to-people ties.

During his visit, Ambassador Blome met with AJK Prime Minister Tanveer Ilyas and academic, business, cultural, and civil society representatives. In Muzaffarabad, Ambassador Blome laid a wreath to honor the victims of the 2005 earthquake and stated that “during the 75 years of our partnership, the United States has always stood by Pakistan, particularly when it’s needed most.” Following the earthquake, the U.S. government and private sector provided significant humanitarian relief and reconstruction, and the U.S. military delivered relief supplies. In his meetings, Ambassador Blome emphasized that the United States is continuing this strong tradition of supporting Pakistan during times of great need, having thus far contributed more than $66 million in cash, food, shelter, and health assistance in response to the devastating flooding. U.S. support has included a U.S. military airbridge that delivered lifesaving supplies to the people of Pakistan.

At the University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Ambassador Blome visited the Lincoln Corner Muzaffarabad, which is celebrating its 15th anniversary. This space provides students and the local community with a multi-media resource center to listen to expert speakers, take part in STEM activities, practice English-language skills, and learn about the United States. The Ambassador also joined university leadership to see previous U.S. government funded projects on campus, including a building completed in 2017, which features laboratories, classrooms, conference rooms, energy-efficient and green-building concepts.

While in Muzaffarabad, the Ambassador also visited the Quaid-e-Azam Memorial Dak Bungalow, the Red Fort, and the Jalalabad Garden, symbols of the cultural and historical richness of Pakistan. Meeting with members of the 950-person strong Muzaffarabad chapter of the Pakistan-U.S. Alumni Network, Ambassador Blome praised them for the passion they bring to their communities and the bilateral relationship, discussing the 60 recent projects they’ve done on topics as varied as climate change, women’s empowerment, and entrepreneurship. During his visit, the Ambassador also met with officers from the Pakistan Army 12th Infantry Division to discuss assistance activities for local communities.

In Bagh, Ambassador Blome joined representatives from U.S. healthcare IT services company MTBC/CareCloud to inaugurate the HeadStart School, which enrolls more than 750 students. This purpose-built campus will strengthen the quality of education available to residents in Bagh and provide additional opportunities to the community. MTBC/CareCloud has offices throughout Pakistan, but its Bagh facility is its largest in Pakistan, with 2,525 employees – almost 20 percent of whom are women. The United States is Pakistan’s largest export market and American companies have been leading investors in Pakistan for the past 20 years. In the past year alone, U.S. investment in Pakistan increased by over 50 percent, reaching its highest level in over a decade.

Pakistan F-16 Package: US Fooling Whom? – OpEd

https://www.eurasiareview.com/28092022-pakistan-f-16-package-us-foo...

The Pentagon said the proposed sale “greatly improves Pakistan’s ability to support counterterrorism operations through its robust air-to-ground capability”. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar took a sharp dig at the US deciding to send the F-16 fighter jet fleet sustainment programme to Pakistan earlier this month to meet ‘current and future counterterrorism threats’, he said “you are not fooling anybody by saying these things”. On F-16 aircraft he said, “For someone to say I am doing this because it is all counter-terrorism content and so when you are talking of an aircraft like a capability of an F-16 where everybody knows, you know where they are deployed and their use. In 2019, Pakistan had used the same aircraft to target India after the Balakot strike and used American supplied AIM-120 C-5 AMRAAM (Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile), to shoot down then Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman’s MiG 21 Bison.


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This is the first American military assistance package to Pakistan after the Trump Administration ended defence and security co-operation with the country in 2018 after accusing it of giving only “lies and deceit” for the billions of dollars that the US had “foolishly” given it.

Despite considerable strategic convergence between the US and India of late in the Indo-Pacific through QUAD, the announcement by the Biden administration at this stage, however, approved a $450 million F-16 aircraft fleet sustainment programme for Pakistan sends confused signals. The US government led by President Joe Biden decided to overturn the decision of his predecessor Donald Trump to suspend military aid to Pakistan in lieu of it providing safe havens for the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani network.

State Department Spokesperson Ned Price told reporters at his daily news conference in response to External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s statement; “We look to both as partners, because we do have in many cases shared values. We do have in many cases shared interests. And the relationship we have with India stands on its own. The relationship we have with Pakistan stands on its own.”

US government and contractor engineering, technical and logistics services for follow-on support of Pakistan’s F-16 fleet aircraft sustainment programme includes modifications and support of aircraft and engine hardware and software as well as repair and return of the jets and engine spares, classified and unclassified software and software support among others. The Pentagon statement also said that the proposed sale will continue the sustainment of the country’s F-16 fleet, which “greatly improves Pakistan’s ability to support counterterrorism operations through its robust air-to-ground capability”.

Reasons for US F-16 support:

Among the major speculated reasons for the Biden Administration’s reversal of Trump’s policy on Pakistan, one revolves around the killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul. Questions ;who provided the intelligence for the drone strike that killed the al-Qaeda chief in a posh house that belonged to Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani.

What is the history of F-16 programme, and why does it carry so much baggage?

by Suhasini Haider


https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/worldview-with-suhasini...


To begin with, F-16 Falcons have always been seen as a barometer of the US-Pakistan relationship:

1. In 1981, as US-Pakistan cooperation against Soviets in Afghanistan got underway- the US sold 40 F-16 jets to Pakistan. These were used to protect mujahideen training camps and shoot down Soviet jets and transporters

2. In 1990, after the Soviets left Afghanistan, ties spiralled- and after the US Pressler amendment on nuclear proliferation concerns, the US held back a Pakistani order for 28 F-16 jets- even though Pakistan had paid for $658 million in advance. Eventually the US refunded the money.

3. From 2005-2015, after US-Pakistan cooperation restarted after 9/11 and the “war on terrorism”, the US resumed its F-16 sales to Pakistan – delivering 23 F-16 As and Bs from the previous order,

selling 19 advanced F-16s and upgrading the previous ones. In all today, Pakistan has about 85 F-16s of various variants. In 2016 the Obama administration approved the sale of 8 more, but the US Congress turned down a plan to susidize them, and Pakistan dropped the deal.

4. Then in 2018, US President Trump, tired of Pakistan’s unkept promises on fighting terrorism and on Afghanistan cancelled all further defence sales and support funding to Pakistan- the period began a low point in US-Pakistan ties, especially with the Imran Khan government, which US President Biden refused to meet or engage with.

5. The decision to provide $450 million worth of F-16 support and equipment marks an uptick in US-Pakistan ties again- Mr. Blinken has met with and spoken over the phone to Mr. Bhutto a number of times since May, and President Biden met with PM Shehbaz Sharif at a reception he hosted in New York last week.

What is the reason for Mr. Jaishankar’s angry words, and why is New Delhi concerned about the $450 million package?

1. This marks the first US military sale to Pakistan since the time US acknowledged Pakistan had been double dealing and was an untrustworthy partner on Afghanistan. The larger question, is the US perception of that changing in any way?

2. This is also the first such package since Pakistan’s grey listing on terror financing, which it hopes to exit this year. The concern in India is this could weaken the war against terrorism as well, if Pakistan feels emboldened to step up support to anti-India terror groups

3. Balakot: During the 2019 Balakot skirmish, when an Indian plane was shot down, India had shown fragments of a missile as proof that Pakistan had used US F-16s in the dogfight, which are only meant for counter-terrorism purposes. The concern in Delhi is Mr. Blinken is whitewashing the incident, and the US, which has never confirmed the Indian claim is basically turning a blind eye to Pakistan’s misuse of the F-16s by providing more support.

4. Dealing with two fronts: Particularly as India deals with aggression from China and focuses its resources there, any arming of Pakistan by the US could alter the regional military balance. The US deal also casts a shadow over the US’s plans to sell India F-21 fighter jets, which are seen as a rebranded version of the F-16s. New Delhi will watch a visit in the next few weeks by Pakistan Army Chief General Bajwa to Washington very closely, as a result.

India-US ties are set on such a close-knit trajectory that it is unlikely that the F-16 support deal to Pakistan alone will prove to be more than just a fly in the ointment, a minor irritant in ties. However, it is the larger ramifications of a possible detente in Washington-Islamabad ties, that soars and plunges by turns, which has in the past meant a greater security threat for India that are the bigger worry, and it is necessary that the US recognise this...especially after its handover to the Taliban in Afghanistan.

@suhasinih
Former Ambassador Katju dissects EAM Jaishankars speech at the UNGA
"Strong statements of a nationalistic flavour may win brownie points and popularity at home — facts, reason and logic as guides should never be overlooked."

https://twitter.com/suhasinih/status/1578286330987282432?s=20&t...

From Indian News Agency ANI:

America upgrades Pakistani F-16 fighter jets, experts weigh in | Latest News

https://youtu.be/QSgU_cYzR08

Sep 8, 2022 US has approved F-16 fleet sustainment programme to Pakistan. The deal is valued at up to $450 million. This program essentially means structural and software upgrades, leading to additional usable flight hours. Pakistan Government requested to include US Government for follow-on support of Pakistan’s F-16 fleet to include an F-16 Aircraft Structural Integrity Program. The country has also requested to consolidate and include logistics services for support of Engine Management Program and software support. This program essentially means structural and software upgrades. It will lead to additional usable flight hours on existing F-16 aircraft and better air-to-ground precision capability. Defence Expert PK Sehgal reacted to President Biden’s millions dollar deal by saying that the initiative has been taken by US in order to resist the global Chinese hegemony.

Riaz Sb,

I just read your posts on floods in Pakistan.  I wanted to share the following article as I live in The Netherlands.  I believe the Dutch has provided expertise in this matter to the city of Karachi before.

https://www.earthmagazine.org/article/dutch-masters-netherlands-exp...