New Net Metering Policy: Is Pakistan's Solar Boom in Jeopardy?

by Riaz Haq

Aug 30, 2024

Recent experience in California has shown that changes in incentives have a huge impact on residential adoption of solar power technology. Since the introduction of NEM 3.0 last year, new rooftop solar business in California has dramatically slowed. New residential solar installation applications have plunged 80%, according to Cal Matters. This has driven many solar installers out of business. The business that remains is mostly focused on adding batteries to existing solar installations. 

Impact of California NEM 3.0 on Solar Business. Source: Cal Matters

California Net Energy Metering (NEM 3.0) was launched last year after heavy lobbying by the state's utility companies like PGE and SoCal Edison. It has reduced payments for the excess power exported by the consumer to the grid by 75%. This change means that the consumer is better off with storage batteries to maximize self-consumption of the power generated by the solar panels. Companies such as Tesla Solar with its PowerWall 3 battery are the main beneficiaries of this change. 


With rapidly falling solar panel prices, Pakistan is experiencing a solar power boom. The country imported some 13 gigawatts of solar modules in the first six months of the year, making it the third-largest destination for Chinese exporters, according to Bloomberg.   In addition, there is approximately 2.2 gigawatts (GW) of net-metered rooftop solar PV capacity connected to the grid by June 2024, according to IEEFA. 
What is likely to happen to this solar boom as Islamabad considers changes to its net metering policy? A recent study published by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) attempts to answer this question. 
Net Metering vs Net Billing Payback Period in Pakistan. Source: IEEFA

There are several proposals under consideration by the Pakistani government to change its net metering policy. All are designed to significantly reduce payments to the consumer for energy exported to the grid. One of these proposals likely to be adopted is to switch from "Net Metering" to "Net Billing". 
Net metering transactions are usually one-to-one, so the credits are often equal to the retail rate of electricity (aka what you pay). Net billing credits are often equal to the wholesale rate of electricity (aka what your utility pays), which is less than the retail rate, according to Energy Sage. Utilities tend to oppose net metering programs, so alternative compensation programs are increasingly being used. 
Analysis by Haneea Isaad, an Energy Finance Specialist at IEEFA, shows that the switch from net metering to net billing would still reduce the payback period for 5kW to 25kW solar systems combined with 50% to 70% self-consumption. She concludes that the payback period will be well under 4 years for a system that has a life of 25 to 30 years. It is better than the 5-year payback period in California under NEM 3.0. 
Would consumers without solar be stuck with high electricity bills? It is quite likely because capacity charges paid to independent power producers (IPPs) accounted for 62% of energy expenditure in Pakistan for the 2023-2024 fiscal year. For the 2024-2025 fiscal year, 64% of the total power purchase price is expected to be fixed capacity costs. Lower consumption of grid electricity will result in a disproportionate impact on consumers who rely entirely on grid power.  
Higher levels of self-consumption closer to 100% would require larger batteries which are still quite expensive in Pakistan. This is likely to change as traditional lead-acid battery makers switch to lithium ion batteries in the country. Recent launches of electric vehicle assembly plants in Pakistan are expected to boost the lithium-ion battery production and bring down prices in the country in the coming years, according to Mordor Intelligence. 
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  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan imported an estimated cumulative total of 7.6 GWh (7,600,000 MWh) of battery storage systems between 2018 and the end of 2025, with imports continuing at a pace exceeding 5 GWh per year and hitting a record single-month volume of 652.2 MWh in April 2026. [1, 2, 3, 4]
    Import Timeline & Milestones
    2018–2025 Total: Roughly 7,600,000 MWh (7.6 GWh) of cumulative battery storage imports, with about 60% of that total arriving during 2025 alone. [1]
    2024–Early 2025: An estimated 1,250,000 MWh (1.25 GWh) imported in 2024, followed by another 400,000 MWh (0.4 GWh) in the first two months of 2025. [1, 2]
    April 2026 Peak: A record single-month high of 652.2 MWh of lithium-ion batteries was imported in April 2026 as consumers and industries shifted heavily toward storage. [1]
    Current Import Pace: Ongoing imports are tracking at a rate of more than 5,000,000 MWh (5 GWh) per year. [1]


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    Batteries Beat the Grid: Pakistanis Skip Net Metering

    https://www.techjuice.pk/batteries-beat-the-grid-pakistanis-skip-ne...

    Pakistani households are increasingly storing solar-generated electricity in batteries rather than selling it back to the national grid, a shift triggered by the implementation of net metering regulations that has created a new challenge for the government.

    According to a report on the Pakistan Battery Import Market, the country has imported batteries with a cumulative capacity of 6.004 GW since January 2024.

    April 2026 recorded the highest monthly import volume, with battery capacity reaching 652.2 MW. During that month alone, Pakistani citizens invested Rs126 billion in battery purchases.

    Pakistan total power generation capacity, excluding solar, stands at 39,000 MW. Transmission and distribution losses account for up to 18 percent of this total generation capacity.

    In response to the rising volume of battery imports, the government has begun drafting a National Battery Framework. Officials note that the growth in solar and battery adoption in Pakistan is outpacing the trend seen in other countries across the region.

    Globally, energy storage capacity is projected to reach 1.5 million MW by 2030. Industry estimates suggest global investment in battery storage will total $1.2 trillion between 2024 and 2035.

    on Saturday

  • Riaz Haq

    Recent Wall Street Journal coverage highlights that sodium-based batteries—built using abundant materials like table salt and iron—are emerging as cheaper, safer, and China-free alternatives to traditional lithium-ion batteries for grid storage and electric vehicles.Key Advantages of Sodium BatteriesLower Cost: Made with inexpensive, common ingredients like food-grade table salt, reducing reliance on expensive lithium, cobalt, and copper.Enhanced Safety: Far less prone to thermal runaway fires, and capable of being passively air-cooled rather than needing expensive liquid-chilling systems.Cold Weather Performance: Retain significantly more charge capacity in sub-zero freezing temperatures compared to conventional lithium cells.Industry and Market ShiftsU.S. Startups & Giants: American companies like Peak Energy and Inlyte Energy are racing to scale domestic production for stationary power storage, while General Motors designs its own sodium-based cells.Chinese Production: Major global battery makers like CATL are advancing mass production and deploying sodium-ion technology into both grid systems and smaller city electric vehicles.Market Projections: Analysts project that sodium could capture over a third of global battery production within a decade as supply chains diversify away from lithium.


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    China-free batteries made from salt are finally here

    While grid battery storage is already growing in the U.S. at a furious pace, new sodium-based batteries are potentially cheaper, longer-lasting, safer and more reliable than conventional, lithium-based ones. They could accelerate the rollout of renewables, and be part of less-polluting alternatives to natural-gas turbines and diesel generators.

    Most sodium-based batteries are now made in China, and represent less than 1% of all batteries delivered this year. In the U.S., a number of startups have begun producing small numbers of such batteries, and are racing to scale up production. One industrial giant—General Motors —is in the process of designing its own sodium-based batteries to tailor them to different applications before moving to mass production.

    https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/china-free-batteries-made-f...

    on Saturday

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan imports 4.6 GWh of BESS in 2025 - Energy Storage
    By Patrick Jowett

    Latest report from Renewables First finds battery storage is beginning to following the growth trajectory of rooftop solar in Pakistan with lithium-ion battery energy storage system imports increasing 220% year-on-year in 2025.

    Lithium-ion battery energy storage system (BESS) imports into Pakistan reached 4.6 GWh in 2025, a 220% year-on-year increase, according to a new report from Islamabad-based think tank Renewables First.

    The report, From Solar Panels to Storage: Pakistan’s Battery Boom Begins, says that battery storage is beginning to follow the growth trajectory of rooftop solar in Pakistan as it moves from a niche add-on to a structural necessity due to a convergence of factors including soaring electricity prices, increasing solarized households, falling battery costs globally and net billing reforms.

    “As rooftop solar adoption accelerates, battery storage is emerging as the logical next step in Pakistan’s energy transition story, letting consumers capture surplus daytime generation and deploy it during evening peak-tariff hours,” the report explains. “With net billing reducing the value of exports to the grid, storing surplus solar energy is becoming increasingly attractive, setting the stage for a battery rush.”

    Total imports of lithium-ion batteries into Pakistan since 2018 reached 7.6 GWh by the end of the last year. Annual imports stood between 0.1 GWh and 0.5 GWh from 2018 to 2023 before the market began to take off in 2024, with 1.4 GWh of imports, before last year’s surge to 4.6 GWh.

    on Tuesday