New Net Metering Policy: Is Pakistan's Solar Boom in Jeopardy?

Recent experience in California has shown that changes in incentives have a huge impact on residential adoption of solar power technology. Since the introduction of NEM 3.0 last year, new rooftop solar business in California has dramatically slowed. New residential solar installation applications have plunged 80%, according to Cal Matters. This has driven many solar installers out of business. The business that remains is mostly focused on adding batteries to existing solar installations. 

Impact of California NEM 3.0 on Solar Business. Source: Cal Matters

California Net Energy Metering (NEM 3.0) was launched last year after heavy lobbying by the state's utility companies like PGE and SoCal Edison. It has reduced payments for the excess power exported by the consumer to the grid by 75%. This change means that the consumer is better off with storage batteries to maximize self-consumption of the power generated by the solar panels. Companies such as Tesla Solar with its PowerWall 3 battery are the main beneficiaries of this change. 


With rapidly falling solar panel prices, Pakistan is experiencing a solar power boom. The country imported some 13 gigawatts of solar modules in the first six months of the year, making it the third-largest destination for Chinese exporters, according to Bloomberg.   In addition, there is approximately 2.2 gigawatts (GW) of net-metered rooftop solar PV capacity connected to the grid by June 2024, according to IEEFA
What is likely to happen to this solar boom as Islamabad considers changes to its net metering policy? A recent study published by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) attempts to answer this question. 
Net Metering vs Net Billing Payback Period in Pakistan. Source: IEEFA

There are several proposals under consideration by the Pakistani government to change its net metering policy. All are designed to significantly reduce payments to the consumer for energy exported to the grid. One of these proposals likely to be adopted is to switch from "Net Metering" to "Net Billing". 
Net metering transactions are usually one-to-one, so the credits are often equal to the retail rate of electricity (aka what you pay). Net billing credits are often equal to the wholesale rate of electricity (aka what your utility pays), which is less than the retail rate, according to Energy Sage. Utilities tend to oppose net metering programs, so alternative compensation programs are increasingly being used. 
Analysis by Haneea Isaad, an Energy Finance Specialist at IEEFA, shows that the switch from net metering to net billing would still reduce the payback period for 5kW to 25kW solar systems combined with 50% to 70% self-consumption. She concludes that the payback period will be well under 4 years for a system that has a life of 25 to 30 years. It is better than the 5-year payback period in California under NEM 3.0. 
Would consumers without solar be stuck with high electricity bills? It is quite likely because capacity charges paid to independent power producers (IPPs) accounted for 62% of energy expenditure in Pakistan for the 2023-2024 fiscal year. For the 2024-2025 fiscal year, 64% of the total power purchase price is expected to be fixed capacity costs. Lower consumption of grid electricity will result in a disproportionate impact on consumers who rely entirely on grid power.  
Higher levels of self-consumption closer to 100% would require larger batteries which are still quite expensive in Pakistan. This is likely to change as traditional lead-acid battery makers switch to lithium ion batteries in the country. Recent launches of electric vehicle assembly plants in Pakistan are expected to boost the lithium-ion battery production and bring down prices in the country in the coming years, according to Mordor Intelligence
  • Riaz Haq

    Budget 2024-25: Production of solar panels, inverters and batteries becomes cheaper - Must Read - Aaj English TV

    https://english.aaj.tv/news/330365159/budget-2024-25-production-of-...

    According to the finance bill, the government has eliminated all taxes on machinery and equipment used in the manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries, most of these were subjected to taxes ranging from 5% to 20%.

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    Pakistan’s energy system strained by surge in solarization, battery tech

    https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1215486-pakistan-s-energy-system-s...

    ISLAMABAD: The rapid solarization and advancements in battery technology are increasingly challenging Pakistan’s existing energy system.

    The influx of over 7,000 megawatts of imported capacity, coupled with some industrialists and bulk consumers installing in-house plants of up to 1.5 megawatts, threatens to disrupt long-term agreements with Independent Power Producers (IPPs).

    This situation is exacerbated by mounting frustration among power consumers, who are being burdened with substantial multi-billion-rupee capacity charges on their monthly bills.

    The provincial governments, especially Punjab and Sindh’s distribution of solar panels to the public, will further pressurise the system, as they will now be drawing less from the grid and so the burden of capacity charges will increase and ultimately the tariff, which will further take away consumers from the grid power.

    “Various bulk consumers have done aggressive solarization, even they installed capacity of up to 1.5 megawatts and have kept the grid at backup,” Chairman Nepra Waseem Mukhtar said while presiding over a public hearing on Wednesday adding, “It’s [solarization] a threat.”

    The Nepra chairman said that this 7,000 MW imported solar capacity is not for only rooftops, bulk consumers are also installing their big capacities. He also tasked the CPPA with conducting a study on solar energy usage, mapping and submitting a report to Nepra.

    Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA) while pleading the case on behalf of Discos reported that electricity consumption in June 2024 was 10 percent lower than the reference period consumption, while two percent less than last year.

    Waseem Mukhtar said that the government has launched a study to determine if Pakistan requires additional power generation capacity. He emphasized the need for a logical approach to adding more electricity to the national grid. The study is also evaluating that Commercial Operating Dates (CoDs) for some plants may be postponed, he said, mentioning that the study will determine which plants can be retired early.

  • Riaz Haq

    California slashes payments to new rooftop-solar… | Canary Media

    https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/solar/california-slashes-payme...

    With its new plan, the CPUC aims to allow all customers to earn enough money from their rooftop-solar systems to pay back the cost of installing them within nine years. That’s a longer payback period than the average of five to seven years under the current net-metering scheme.

    But solar groups and some consumer advocates say that the CPUC’s calculations are flawed, and that the complexities and uncertainties of the new net-billing structure could push payback periods beyond that nine-year target. They also warn that companies that finance solar installations will be leery of lending to projects under the new regime, potentially restricting the market even further.

    In a memo last week, pro-rooftop-solar group Save California Solar highlighted how dramatic the reduction in export values would be for customers of California’s three big utilities compared to reductions adopted in recent years in other states.

    -----------------------------


    One of the biggest uncertainties surrounding the CPUC’s changes is whether they’ll successfully encourage far more customers to add batteries that can store solar power and then export it when the grid needs it most. Finding ways to store excess solar generated at midday and save it for hot summer evenings, when California faces increasing risk of grid shortfalls, has become a central part of the state’s clean energy policy for utility-scale solar as well as distributed solar.

    That’s a much different set of challenges than when California’s net-metering policy was first enacted in 1995, CPUC President Alice Reynolds said at Thursday’s meeting. ​“During the daytime, the electric grid is now powered largely by renewable systems both large and small,” she said. ​“There are even moments when we need to curtail” — or order large-scale solar systems to stop producing power — ​“because we have too much on the grid at once.”

    The CPUC’s new structure is meant to make batteries more valuable than solar alone and enable solar-plus-battery installations to earn back their costs in between eight and nine years, slightly less time than solar-only installations. Exports of solar power to the grid during high-demand evening hours in summer months will be compensated at levels higher than current retail rates, providing battery owners an opportunity to speed up payback.

    The CPUC’s decision will also require all new rooftop-solar owners to enroll in ​“electrification rates” that charge far more for electricity during peak hours and far less during hours when grid demand is lower. (The rates are intended to encourage people to electrify their homes and stop using fossil gas, hence the name.) Batteries could allow solar-equipped homes to take advantage of these highly differentiated hourly rates, so they can buy from the grid when rates are low and use their own stored rooftop power when rates are high.

  • Riaz Haq

    Indian reliance on Chinese imports is challenge for U.S. trade strategy - The Washington Post


    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/02/india-china-manufac...

    NEW DELHI — American businesses looking to reduce their reliance on China have increasingly been eyeing India in the past few years as a new manufacturing hub — and as a hedge against potential disruptions in Chinese supply chains caused by rising geopolitical tensions or another pandemic.

    But as India has amped up its production of goods like smartphones, solar panels and medicine, the Indian economy itself has become even more dependent on Chinese imports, in particular for the components that go into these products, according to trade figures and economic analysts.

    This dynamic serves as a reality check for U.S. policymakers, who have been urgently promoting efforts to diversify supply chains away from Chinese factories and “de-risk” the commercial relationship with China.

    “Unless China stops being the third party from where components come in and we just assemble, that de-risking is not going to happen for any country coming in and producing in India,” said Sriparna Pathak, an associate professor at Jindal University focusing on India-China relations.



    —————
    To support the production of Indian textiles and garments, another important export industry, India has been ramping up imports of yarn and fabric from China. Even the automobile industry — considered a success story for both domestic and export sales — has been increasing its imports of vehicle parts and accessories from China.

    As with electronics, India has made significant strides in producing solar panels but now relies even more on the Chinese solar cells that go in them.

    After the United States restricted imports of Chinese solar panel material because of concerns about human rights and labor abuses, Indian exports of solar panels to the American market spiked in 2022, increasing in value by almost 150 percent, according to U.S. government trade figures. The next year saw an even sharper increase.



    During that time, however, India sourced between half and all of its solar panel components — such as modules, cells, wafers and solar glass — from China between 2021 and 2023, according to a BloombergNEF report at the end of last year.

    Senior Biden administration officials said it is not realistic to think that inputs from China can be excluded at this moment from American supply chains. “We have taken a more practical view that in order to effectively diversify, the first step is to get a foothold in the parts of this supply chain where you can diversify today. And then from there you can grow upstream,” said a senior administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive strategies toward China.

    Addressing the significant presence of Chinese components in Indian-made solar panels, the official said: “We recognize we are in the first inning of a long game, but we are at an inflection point in that there is now a clear recognition, not just in the U.S. and India but among friends and allies, that being overly reliant on one source for the clean-energy economy is not sustainable and requires a concerted effort to de-risk. But it’s going to take time.”

  • Riaz Haq

    Electricity Tariff for Pakistan Residential Consumers- July 2024

    https://arynews.tv/electricity-tariff-for-pakistan-residential-cons...

    ISLAMABAD: The federal cabinet approved significant increase in the electricity tariff for residential consumers using 100 to 500 units per month, ARY news reported.

    According to the details, the new basic tariff is fixed at Rs 48.84 per unit, which will increase to Rs 57.63 per unit after sales tax. With adjustments and other taxes, the maximum electricity tariff will exceed Rs 65 per unit.

    As per the decision taken by the federal cabinet, the monthly tariff for consumers using 1 to 100 units is proposed to Rs 23.59, while those using 101 to 200 units will have to pay Rs 30.07 per unit.

    Similarly, the tariff for those consumers using 201 to 300 units will increase to Rs 34.26, and those using 301 to 400 units will have to pay Rs 39.15 per unit.

    The consumers using 401 to 500 units will be charged the most as they will have to pay Rs 41.36 per unit

    Pakistan’s power sector caused a Rs403 billion loss in FY2022-23, revealed the National Electronic Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) report earlier.

    The progress report of the power distribution companies including K-Electric was released by the NEPRA, indicating nine distribution companies including K-Electric failed to achieve 100pc recovery.

    The line losses and low recoveries caused a loss of Rs403 bln to the national kitty, the report said. The report highlighted that the companies did not buy the electricity as per the assigned quota.

    The companies carrying out loadshedding ‘deliberately’ as they are not buying electricity as per their quotas, the report said.

  • Riaz Haq

    According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Pakistan's total solar installed capacity was 1,244 megawatts as of 2023, an increase of 17% compared to 2021. The country's government has proposed several efforts to raise the percentage of solar energy. Source: https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/pakistan-solar-...


    https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/pakistan-solar-....

    Pakistan Solar Energy Market Analysis

    The Pakistan Solar Energy Market size in terms of installed base is expected to grow from 1.41 gigawatt in 2024 to 9.53 gigawatt by 2029, at a CAGR of 46.55% during the forecast period (2024-2029).
    Over the medium term, increasing adoption of solar PV systems, the declining price of solar panels and installation costs, and rising environmental concerns about the use of fossil fuels are the factors driving the market's growth.
    On the other hand, the market is expected to be hampered by issues like transmission and distribution losses, a need for a solidified renewable energy policy, and unpredictability in the continuity of power supply.
    However, Pakistan has abundant solar irradiance and receives solar energy almost yearly. This factor presents a phenomenal opportunity to exploit solar energy from the most irradiated sites in the country, combined with foreign investments. Additionally, the off-grid supply through micro- and mini-grids to electrify rural communities of the country and the integration of renewable energy sources in generation, transmission, and distribution systems are some factors expected to create opportunities for the market in the future.





    Pakistan Solar Energy Market Trends


    The Utility Sector is Expected to Dominate the Market



    Solar energy converts energy from sunlight into electricity directly using photovoltaics (PV) or indirectly using concentrated solar power.
    Due to the falling cost of solar modules and the number of upcoming projects, the utility sector will likely be the most significant part of the Pakistani solar energy market over the next few years.
    The Pakistani government has established lofty objectives, such as 30% of the nation's power coming from renewable sources by 2030. Through the Alternative Energy Development Board, the government is attempting to construct solar power facilities nationwide to meet these objectives.
    According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Pakistan's total solar installed capacity was 1,244 megawatts as of 2023, an increase of 17% compared to 2021. The country's government has proposed several efforts to raise the percentage of solar energy.
    In December 2023, Orient Energy Systems and JA Solar announced they completed Pakistan's first n-type utility-scale photovoltaic power plant project. The project adopts JA Solar's n-type high-efficiency modules, which have a capacity of 26 megawatts. It is installed on the premises of Lucky Cement plant, Pakistan's largest cement manufacturer.
    In March 2024, Hanersun Technologies agreed with My Energy, a local company, to construct a 500MW solar system in the country. The project is expected to have an investment of around USD 700 million.
    Hence, with government support, these projects are expected to make the utility sector the dominant force in Pakistan's solar energy industry in the coming years. Source: https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/pakistan-solar-...

  • Riaz Haq

    In Pakistan, the residential sector is the largest consumer of electricity, followed by the industrial sector:
    Residential: The largest consumer of electricity, accounting for 47% of total electricity consumption in 2021–2022. The average household consumes 2,469 kWh per year.
    Industrial: Consumed 28% of total electricity consumption in 2021–2022.
    Commercial: Consumed 7% of total electricity consumption in 2021–2022.
    Agricultural: Consumed 9% of total electricity consumption in 2021–2022.
    Other sectors: Consumed 8% of total electricity consumption in 2021–2022.
    Pakistan's electricity is mainly generated by fossil fuel-based thermal power plants, which account for 62% of the total electricity generation. Hydroelectric power plants account for 26% of the total annual electricity.

    https://finance.gov.pk/survey/chapter_24/14_energy.pdf

    https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/11/11/566#:~:text=Pakistan%20is%20am...(Figure%201).

  • Riaz Haq

    Arif Habib Limited
    @ArifHabibLtd
    Power Generation drops 17.4% YoY in Aug'24

    (Grid) Power generation declined by 17.4% YoY to arrive at 13,179 GWh (17,714 MW) during Aug'24, compared to 15,959 GWh (21,450MW) during SPLY. Moreover, on a MoM basis, power generation witnessed a dip of 11.4%. For 2MFY25, power generation fell by 8.9% YoY to 28,059 GWh (18,857 MW) compared to 30,798 GWh (20,697 MW) in the SPLY.

    During Aug’24, the actual power generation was 13.1% lower than the reference generation. This decline in generation is expected to result in higher capacity charges for the 2QFY25 QTA.

    https://x.com/ArifHabibLtd/status/1836714300620337340

    ------------------
    Chinese solar panel boom threatens Pakistan’s debt-ridden grid

    https://www.ft.com/content/69e4cb33-3615-4424-996d-5aee9d1afe19

    Businesses in Pakistan are racing to cover their factory rooftops with ultra-cheap Chinese solar panels, after a surge in electricity prices that has made the state-owned power supply among the most expensive in South Asia. “Every bit of space I have, even if it’s a few feet, I want it covered in solar panels,” said Khawaja Masood Akhtar, chief executive of Forward Sports, whose factory near the Indian border is one of the world’s largest makers of footballs and a rare example of a successful export business. His company had already doubled the level of solar in its energy mix to 50 per cent over the past two years, in response to pressure to go green from Adidas, which contracts Forward to churn out millions of balls each year.



    Akhtar is now ploughing a chunk of last year’s profits into importing another haul of panels from China to lift the share of solar supply to his operations to 80 per cent by next April, to blunt the impact of soaring tariffs for state-provided power. “It’s the only way we can beat our competitors” in China and India, he said. “Allah has given us this gift to get out of this mess.” China is also involved on the other side of the “mess”. In order to put an end to widespread electricity shortages a decade ago, the Pakistani government drew in billions of dollars from Chinese and other lenders to its power sector with promises of sovereign-backed, dollar-indexed returns and commitments to pay for even unused electricity. Financing mostly flowed to the coal-fired plants, and power tariffs in Pakistan have more than doubled over the past three years alone, as the cash-strapped government scaled back subsidies and passed the capacity payments made to power producers on to consumers. In response, moneyed Pakistanis have capitalised on the country’s punishingly harsh sunlight by importing some $1.4bn worth of Chinese solar panels in the first half of this year, making it the third-largest national destination in the world, according to data compiled by BloombergNEF. Shimmering blue panels now sit atop a vast array of factories, high-end households, hospitals and mosques.




    Irteza Ubaid, chief operating officer of Shams Power, a Lahore-based importer, said that multinational companies in Pakistan, including Coca-Cola, Mondelez and Hyundai, are gobbling up the panels he imports from China, as they chase savings of up to 70 per cent on their electricity bills. The federal government sees the switch to solar as being in the country’s environmental interests, as climate change has brought more extreme weather, including deadly heatwaves and floods, which caused the deaths of more than 1,500 in 2022.




    But the mass adoption of solar panels also risked making the power provided by the Pakistani grid “unaffordable”, Awais Leghari, the energy minister, told the Financial Times. “Demand is shrinking off the grid. That’s a big concern for us.” Earlier this year, the ministry complained that “solarisation has grown too fast”, as a result of a policy to buy some excess solar power from households and industry at above-market prices. A remaining estimated 30mn low-income consumers who cannot afford the new solar panels or lack the rooftop space now face rocketing prices for the state-owned power supply.

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan Is Only the Beginning of the Cheap Solar Revolution

    By Ryan Cooper, managing editor at The American Prospect, and author of the book "How Are You Going to Pay for That?: Smart Answers to the Dumbest Question in Politics."

    No need for expensive imported fuel when your energy is coming from the sun.

    https://heatmap.news/economy/pakistan-solar

    Pakistan imported a whopping 13 gigawatts of solar panels, mostly from China, in just the first half of 2024, mostly for rooftop installations for homes and businesses. That’s a mind-boggling amount of new solar for a country that only had about 50 gigawatts of installed generation capacity in total in 2023.
    ----------

    Fuel imports are one of the largest expenses for even prosperous countries. For places like Pakistan, they are a punishing economic drain. Paying for vast amounts of imported coal, gas, and oil in scarce foreign currency is hard enough in good times, but it’s disastrous when one’s currency has depreciated by about 40% over two years.

    Dirt cheap solar power could ameliorate or solve many of these problems at a stroke. Panels are now so cheap, even Pakistan can afford to import them by the millions — an expense, yes, but a one-time one. And while solar is inherently intermittent, and therefore not a solution to Pakistan’s reliability problems, batteries are also plummeting in price — down about 90% between 2010 and 2023 — and can help balance out supply. Cheaper batteries also mean cheaper EVs, with (as usual) Chinese models coming out at bewilderingly low prices. And because Pakistanis mostly drive motorcycles (often manufactured domestically) over relatively short distances, electrifying the personal vehicle fleet there will be far cheaper than in America or Europe; vastly smaller batteries require vastly simpler charging infrastructure.

    If all goes well, this will free up vast amounts of economic capacity for Pakistan to invest in domestic development. Businesses will have stable, reliable power supplies that will justify more investment. Households will be able to upgrade their insulation, install heat pumps, and generally spend more on things other than energy. The government will be able to upgrade legacy transmission lines to accommodate solar production from the remaining hydro and nuclear plants.

    Finally, of course, there is the climate benefit. Pakistan is one of the countries most threatened by climate change. Summer heat waves are bad and getting worse, to the point where murderous wet bulb events are increasingly likely. Catastrophic warming-fueled storms in 2022 caused the worst flooding in the country’s history, inundating about a third of Pakistan’s land area, killing nearly 2,000 people and causing billions of dollars in damages.

    In short, a path to economic development will be opened. It is by no means guaranteed, but it will be a heck of a lot easier than trying to dig out from under the debt mountain of the collapsing coal-powered system. Look around the developing world and you’ll find there are a great many nations in similar situations.

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan emerged as second-largest market for Chinese photovoltaic products | REVE News of the wind sector in Spain and in the world


    https://www.evwind.es/2024/10/02/pakistan-emerged-as-second-largest...

    Pakistan has emerged as a significant new market for Chinese photovoltaic (PV) companies, aligning with its path toward energy transformation.

    According to statistics from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), in the first half of 2024, Asia overtook Europe as the largest export destination for PV products and Pakistan has become the second-largest market for module exports after Europe.

    During the same period, China exported inverters worth a total of RMB 1.714 billion to Pakistan. In August alone, the total value of inverter exports to Pakistan reached 326 million yuan, showing a year-on-year surge of 429.04%. And shimmering blue panels now sit atop a vast array of factories, households, hospitals and mosques.

    The surge in exports of photovoltaics and supporting products reflects the urgency of turning to new energy power generation in Pakistan, China Economic Net reported on Tuesday.

    “Electricity prices continue to rise; thus, people are trying to find their own way out,” Abbas a Pakistani trader said at the Investment and Trade Forum for Cooperation between East and West China.

    As of June 2023, the installed capacity of solar power in Pakistan stood at 630 megawatts, namely 1.4% of the overall installed power capacity, which has a huge room for improvement.

    In terms of natural conditions, according to the World Bank’s Global Solar Atlas data, taking Balochistan with good lighting conditions as an example, the average annual total photovoltaic output power of a 1KW household photovoltaic system can reach 1990kWh (corresponding to approximately 1990h of sunlight), which is approximately 41% and 59% higher than New Delhi, India and Shandong Province, China, respectively; the Global Tilted Irradiance (GTI) can reach 2536.5KWh/square meter, which is approximately 36% and 61% higher than New Delhi, India and Shandong Province, China respectively.

    In terms of policies, for the past few years, the Pakistani government has highly supported the development of renewable energy, setting a strategic goal of increasing the share of renewable energy and alternative energy in Pakistan’s electricity market to 20% by 2025 and to 30% by 2030.

    The IGCEP2047 released by NEPRA showed that Pakistan’s PV installed capacity will achieve leapfrog growth in the next few years. It is expected that by 2030, the PV installed capacity will reach 12.8GW, and by 2047 it is expected to reach 26.9GW. According to calculations, in order to achieve the 2030/2047 goals, the average annual new PV installed capacity needs to reach 1.65/1.07GW respectively.

    Businesses in Pakistan are racing to cover their factory rooftops with reasonably priced Chinese solar panels. “Every bit of space I have, even if it’s a few feet, I want it covered in solar panels,” said Khawaja Masood Akhtar, chief executive of Forward Sports, whose factory is one of the world’s largest makers of footballs. His company had already doubled the level of solar in its energy mix to 50% over the past two years. Akhtar is now ploughing a chunk of last year’s profits into importing another haul of panels from China to lift the share of solar supply to his operations to 80% by next April.

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan's farmers feel the (solar) power | UNIDO

    https://www.unido.org/stories/pakistans-farmers-feel-solar-power

    In the photo (above), a smallholder farmer from Bhagwela, Rahim Yar Khan, in Punjab province, inspects her solar tube well, a type of water pumping system that utilizes solar energy to bring up water from underground sources, such as wells or boreholes. It is an eco-friendly and cost-effective alternative to the diesel or mains electricity-powered pumps commonly used in agricultural irrigation.

    With the solar-powered tube well irrigating her farmland, the farmer has cut costs and improved her crop yields. She is one of the nearly 500 women and men engaged in farming and running small enterprises in the provinces of Punjab and Sindh who UNIDO has helped apply renewable energy solutions for productive uses. The National Rural Support Programme (NRSP), a leading microfinance and development organization in Pakistan, provides loans for the procurement and installation of renewable energy solutions, and UNIDO covers the interest payments so that the loans are interest-free.

    Another farmer, Kaneez Fatima, from the Sargodha district in Punjab, expressed her thanks. "I own a small piece of land, and access to water and electricity is always a problem. I received UNIDO's assistance through the NRSP - an interest-free loan to purchase a 2KW solar panel to run a tube well to irrigate my land. The installation process was extremely smooth, according to the land irrigation needs and water level."

    The electricity costs for beneficiaries have drastically dipped. A post-installation impact survey conducted by the NRSP found that 80% of respondents reported savings of of up to 15,000 Pakistani rupees (around €50) a month, with the other 20% saving even more.

    Small farmers and entrepreneurs have been suffering from fuel price hikes in recent times. Agriculture and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the mainstays of Pakistan's economy, providing jobs for around two-thirds of the population.

    Rashid Bajwa, CEO of the NRSP, laments the impact of the enegy crisis on the economy. "The majority of our population generates income that is barely enough to meet their needs and the situation is getting worse," says Bajwa. "We need to adapt and improvise, and alternative or green energy just might be the solution that will enable our SME sector to sustain and grow."

    The farms and businesses supported by UNIDO have not only reduced costs by switching from diesel, they are also helping save the climate. With a capacity to produce 1,825 MWh of clean energy a year, the project beneficiaries will be able to avoid more than 800 metric tons of CO2 emissions annually.

    Shah Jahan Mirza, Managing Director of the government agency, the Private Power and Infrastructure Board, commended UNIDO for introducing renewable energy technogology to smallholder farmers and small enterprises in Punjab and Sindh provinces. "These rural communities generally don't have funding to finance these systems. There are also doubts and misconceptions about these technologies, i.e. they are not reliable and very costly, or may not help. Providing interest-free loans is a breakthrough. UNIDO has taken a lead in this which will go a long way, as the people have now started using this technology. "

    The UNIDO initiative is part of a bigger project, Sustainable Energy Initiative for Industries in Pakistan, funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF). Collaborating with public and private partners, UNIDO has facilitated investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy in 50 industrial units. In addition, UNIDO has placed significant emphasis on capacity building, and has trained more than 625 professionals, including 30 women, in energy management systems and energy optimization.

    The project has yielded significant results, implementing more than 12MW of renewable energy projects in the industrial sector, and thereby reducing over 17,000 metric tons of CO2 emissions.

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan ends power deals to save $1.48 billion, cut tariffs | Reuters

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-biggest-private-u...

    Government to save 411 billion rupees
    Negotiations with more power producers underway
    IMF bailout talks influenced decision to revisit power deals

    KARACHI, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Pakistan's government has ended power purchase contracts with five private companies, including one with the country's largest utility that should have been in place until 2027, to cut costs, officials said on Thursday.
    The news confirms comment from Power Minister Awais Leghari to Reuters last month that the government was re-negotiating deals with independent power producers to lower electricity tariffs as households and businesses struggle to manage soaring energy costs.
    "We studied these agreements and we decided what plants we need and what plants we don't need," Leghari told a news conference in Islamabad on Thursday, adding the termination of the take or pay agreements will save the nation nearly 411 billion rupees ($1.48 billion) in the coming years.
    Take or pay is referred to as capacity payments in Pakistan where the government has to pay private companies irrespective of how much of the power they generate is transferred to its grid.

    Negotiations have also begun with other power producers to revise their contracts, Leghari said, adding people would soon see the impact in their monthly bills.
    "Our aim is to bring the tariff down," he said.
    The need to revisit the deals was an issue in talks for a critical staff-level pact in July with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $7-billion bailout.
    Earlier on Thursday Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Pakistan has agreed with five independent power producers to revisit purchase contracts. He said that would save the country 60 billion rupees a year.

    Pakistan's biggest private utility, Hub Power Company Ltd (HPWR.PSX), opens new tab, also said the company agreed to prematurely end a contract with the government to buy power from a southwestern generation project.
    In a note to the Pakistan Stock Exchange, it said the government had agreed to meet its commitments up to Oct. 1, instead of an initial date of March 2027, in an action taken "in the greater national interest".

  • Riaz Haq

    Home Batteries Are Cheaper Than Ever - CNET


    https://www.cnet.com/home/energy-and-utilities/home-batteries-are-c...

    The quoted battery prices have dropped to $1,133 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) of energy storage capacity -- a 16% drop from last year. Lower battery costs are a result of streamlined manufacturing processes, especially in China, and the decreasing cost of materials. In fact, 70% of the world's lithium-ion cell production happens in China, according to IDTechEX.

    As prices have fallen, consumer interest in home battery products has increased. However, most people still prefer to purchase a battery with a solar panel system. According to the EnergySage report, 34% of US customers who bought a solar system chose to include a battery during the first half of 2024, a trend that is expected to continue to rise.

    Which home batteries are the most popular?
    In terms of popularity, Tesla and Enphaseremain the most quoted battery brands on EnergySage, exceeding 75% of the market share when combined. Tesla saw an 11% growth in overall market share within the past six months, likely due to the recent launch of the Tesla Powerwall 3, which more than doubles the power of the previous model.



    Tesla's Powerwall 3 is also incredibly cheap for home battery standards. EnergySage says the current cost of the Powerwall 3 is $1,000 per kWh of storage. The Powerwall 3 has 13.5 kWh of energy storage capacity; that's about $13,500. But this doesn't include the cost of battery installation. We were quoted $16,551 for the cost of installing one Powerwall 3 on a home in Fort Mill, South Carolina, via Tesla's website. The estimate includes the cost of the battery, gateway device, accessories, installation and taxes.

    Tesla and Enphase aren't the only battery brands out there that are fighting for space in the market. FranklinWH, SolarEdge, EG4 and SunPower are starting to take over what's left of the market. However, SunPower has discontinued its energy storage product and recently filed for bankruptcy.



    Interest in home batteries
    Consumer interest in home batteries has more than tripled year-over-year, according to EnergySage. This is especially apparent in California, where the battery and solar panel attachment rate has skyrocketed since the net billing changes in April. The attachment rate outside California also saw a 22% increase, especially in states that don't have consumer-friendly net metering policies like Tennessee and Georgia. This makes holding onto your excess energy more valuable than selling it to the utility company.

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan to reform power distribution after IMF meetings, minister says
    Owais Rawda explores what the most recent request for IMF climate funding means for power sector reform.

    https://www.power-technology.com/comment/pakistan-to-reform-power-d...

    At last week’s International Monetary Fund (IMF) Annual Meetings, Pakistan’s finance minister Muhammad Aurangzeb requested $1bn in funding from the IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) to help mitigate the country’s climate risks and accelerate its energy transition. Established in 2022, the RST offers vulnerable low- and middle-income countries long-term concessional cash for climate-related spending.

    Pakistan’s power sector circular debt, driven by inefficiencies in the power distribution network, crossed Rs2.66tn ($9.5bn) in May, according to a debt report released by the government’s power division. Meanwhile, citizens have suffered significant and frequent power outages in recent years, leaving millions without electricity.

    The government’s faulty capacity payment contracts with independent power producers (IPPs) have come to light as the primary source of these challenges. Interest rates borne from private IPPs have not only worsened the debt crisis but spiked consumer tariffs, making electricity unaffordable.

    In light of Aurangzeb’s request, coupled with multiple IPPs terminating their contracts with the government, the South Asian nation is now likely to announce significant reforms.

    “These IPP payments had a detrimental effect on the overall quality of life for our citizens,” Awais Laghari, Pakistan’s minister for energy’s power division, tells Power Technology. “It is imperative that necessary steps are taken to resolve the issue.”

    Without specifying the plans, he claims that the power division is currently evaluating options “through which the fiscal burden shared by the consumer, whether through taxes or debt repayments, can be optimised through various interventions that improves household economics and consumption at the same time”.

    Laghari says that there are also plans to “unbundle electricity” and create a competitive market for energy, citing the recent introduction of an independent system and market operator (ISMO) as a step in this direction.

    “This will ensure that a B2B [business-to-business] market for electricity can develop, which can eventually evolve into a B2B2C [business-to-business-to-consumer] market thereby providing greater options for consumers and lower prices through a competitive process,” he says.

    The minister adds that the role of renewables in reforming the country’s power market will be imperative, “given their price advantage”. He believes that their ability to generate cheap electricity will “always put them ahead in any competitive market regime, making them critical to the success of the market.”

    Following the IMF meetings, Laghari says that the government plans to “move forward actively” with the privatisation of electricity distribution companies and that “necessary improvements in governance are already underway”.

    He believes that privatisation can enhance the efficiency of these companies, allowing them to remain a key player in the power market, which in turn will result in more affordable prices for consumers.

    “Similarly, we continue to focus on investment in transmission to remove constraints so that lower cost electricity generated in the South can be moved across the country and overall consumer tariff can be reduced.”

    About the author: Owais Rawda is a regulatory policy researcher that has written about the energy and technology industries.

  • Riaz Haq

    Is distributed solar energy a game-changer for emerging economies? | World Economic Forum

    https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/10/distributed-solar-energy-em...

    Distributed solar energy and other green tech, is helping to transform energy from a commodity to a technology, enabling energy-independence in emerging economies like Pakistan.
    Solar energy boosts economic growth by offering affordable energy, driving business expansion and increasing job opportunities.
    Solar energy fosters greater energy autonomy, reduces political dependence on centralized systems, improves governance and contributes to lower carbon emissions.
    Under the scorching sun in Lahore, Pakistan, the hum of factory machinery persists uninterrupted. Just a year ago, frequent power outages would have stopped production. Today, a collection of solar panels on its roof keeps everything running. This scene is one of thousands happening across buildings in Pakistan, marking a quiet but powerful shift in how emerging economies power their growth.

    At Exponential View, we identify distributed solar energy as a key factor for the future, offering cheaper and more accessible electricity. As our research suggests, this grassroots transformation has the potential to redefine economic opportunities and provide energy independence for millions in developing nations, reshaping their futures.

    Solar is changing energy from a commodity, like fossil fuels, to a technology, bringing two key benefits. First, as solar technology improves, its cost continues to drop. Between 2010 and 2023, the price of solar energy has fallen by 33.4% every time production has doubled. In contrast, fossil fuel prices are controlled by global markets and politics.

    Second, solar panels let people generate power locally, giving them more control over their energy. Unlike fossil fuels, which depend on expensive, unstable grids and resources from other regions, solar power allows individuals to become more energy-independent.

    As batteries become cheaper, this independence will grow and energy generation could become increasingly decentralized. Emerging economies are leading this transformation and Pakistan is one of the clearest examples this year.

    Pakistan’s solar boom
    Pakistan is now the third-largest importer of Chinese solar panels, buying an incredible 13 gigawatts (GW) in just the first half of this year. To compare, the United Kingdom is expected to add only 1.5-2GW of solar capacity this year and the United States added 32GW in 2023. This likely makes Pakistan the sixth-largest installer of solar panels in 2024 but locally, the impact is even bigger.

    In six months, Pakistan imported solar capacity equal to 30% of its total power capacity, which was 46GW in 2023.

    However, Pakistan’s regulator, NEPRA, only tracks grid-connected or officially registered installations. Geospatial data shows solar panels spreading across factories, homes and even government buildings, pointing to an under-the-radar revolution in energy production.

  • Riaz Haq

    Optimizing Pakistan's economy by renegotiating power purchase agreements
    December 05, 2024
    Haneea Isaad

    https://ieefa.org/resources/optimizing-pakistans-economy-renegotiat...

    Developing countries in Asia and Africa, riddled with excess capacity payments and a surplus of generation capacity, are using contract renegotiation to lower their economic burden and conserve the foreign exchange. In Pakistan, Independent Power Producers (IPPs) have allegedly made excessive profits by under-reporting efficiency gains and over-invoicing, thus necessitating complex power purchase agreement (PPA) renegotiations. Contracts with five IPPs have already been terminated, while 18 others face a possible conversion to a take-and-pay basis.

    Renegotiations require both parties to offer concessions to arrive at a deal. For the five IPPs with terminated contracts, two publicly listed companies may have waived some receivables while taking the government’s offered settlement. Lalpir Power Plant, a 362 megawatts (MW) furnace oil-based plant located in Muzaffargarh, took a haircut of PKR7 billion. HubCo’s 1292MW furnace oil-based power plant was offered PKR36.5 billion in compensation, almost PKR20 billion less than the total company valuation as of June 2024.

    Renegotiation of concession agreements is not an unusual practice in the power sector, especially under destabilizing economic conditions such as macroeconomic shocks. Ghana, like Pakistan, has struggled with energy sector reforms prompted by rising power sector debt and unpaid dues. The country recently underwent a similar situation, successfully renegotiating contracts with five IPPs, including debt structuring and conversion to a take-and-pay system.

    The government in Pakistan has attempted PPA renegotiations in 1998, 2012, 2020, and now in 2024. IPPs allege that repeated contract renegotiations and coercive tactics will hurt investor confidence and future expansion opportunities in the power sector.

    An examination of the PPA terms reveals that the incentives offered to IPPs have been overly generous with backstopped payment guarantees, dollar indexation, and high return on equity allowances, contributing to Pakistan’s ever-rising power sector circular debt.

    Considering that the IPPs under review have paid off their debts and have earned reasonable returns on equity, contract termination or conversion to a take-and-pay basis is a reasonable proposition given Pakistan’s persistent economic struggles and foreign exchange shortage.

    While renegotiation could allow the government to save scarce economic resources, the IPPs may also have a chance at quick compensation for unpaid dues or the ability to sell power to secondary markets once Competitive Trading Bilateral Contract Market (CTBCM) reforms are operationalized. However, the negotiation process should be commercial and transparent to ensure optimal outcomes.

  • Riaz Haq

    Recent documents indicate that there are pending applications for solar net metering with a total capacity of 58,822 megawatts (MW), far surpassing the nation’s existing power generation capacity of 46,000 MW, as reported by the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA).


    https://www.techjuice.pk/4742-pending-net-metering-applications-exc...

    IESCO currently holds the highest number of pending applications, totaling 1,363 requests that amount to a capacity of 12,276 MW. Among the significant backlogs are GEPCO, which has 117 requests totaling 6,282 MW, LESCO with 699 requests for 6,143 MW. Additionally, FESCO has 871 requests amounting to 12,399 MW, while K-Electric has 773 requests for 10,164 MW.

    Delays are primarily attributed to the elevated buy-back rates associated with the net metering system. NEPRA has urged for a thoughtful reassessment of the tariff framework to tackle this concern. The authority has proposed that support for individual solar consumers should take precedence over large-scale solar projects to attain more favorable results.

    Recent documents reveal that by June 30, 2024, more than 156,372 solar facilities, with a combined capacity of 2,200 MW, were established under the net metering program. The consumer base surged from 75,724 in FY2022-23 to an impressive 157,844 by the conclusion of FY2023-24, marking a significant doubling within a single year.

    Update: However, according to the recent update on the NEPRA report, an earlier computation resulted in a 1000-fold misreport of the energy production capacity awaiting applications.

  • Riaz Haq

    The power grid's battery capacity surged in 2024


    https://www.marketplace.org/2025/03/12/the-electric-grids-battery-c...

    Big banks of batteries are an important part of the renewable energy transition. Their role is to store power generated when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing so that it can be used when it’s dark or the wind is calm.

    According to the Energy Information Administration, the U.S. made good progress on the battery storage front in 2024 — capacity grew 66%. And almost twice as much could be added to the grid this year.

    A battery storage system isn’t much to look at. “It’s just, you know, a large, unremarkable set of rectangular structures hanging around,” said Michael Craig at the University of Michigan.

    But inside those unremarkable rectangles are lithium-ion batteries.

    Seth Feaster at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said they have something pretty remarkable: “The ability to time-shift power.”

    This means storing up power generated when demand is low, then pushing it out into the grid when demand is high.

    A lot of these battery systems are up and running in Texas. Feaster said that the other morning at about 5 a.m., “the market power price in Texas was below $20. But once you hit about 6:30, 7 o’clock, as demand increases, power prices jump.”

    So a power company could have charged its batteries on the cheap at 5 a.m. “and then gotten two or three or four times that price for that power during the morning period of peak demand.”

    The costs associated with batteries have come down, said Joshua Rhodes at the University of Texas at Austin, thanks to their widespread use in electric vehicles, laptops, smartphones and storage systems.

    “The price of lithium has gone down by, like, 80%. The cost of batteries to install, you know, has gone down by a factor of two or three,” said Rhodes.

    Battery storage has also benefited from government incentives — including a tax credit in the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act. The GOP-controlled Congress could repeal it. But, said Allison Feeney at Wood Mackenzie, “even if the IRA phases out earlier or goes away entirely, we’ll still see strong storage installs, but they just won’t be probably as high.”

    They could stay strong, she said, because demand for electricity is likely to increase. And battery storage is, for now, a cheaper way to meet that demand.

    But there’s one more wild card on the price side, Feeney said. You guessed it — tariffs.

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan cuts solar net-metering buyback rate to Rs10 per unit
    ECC approves amendments to net-metering regulations to ease financial burden on grid consumers.

    https://tribune.com.pk/story/2534077/govt-revises-solar-net-meterin...

    The government has reduced the buyback rate for electricity under net metering from Rs27 per unit to Rs10 per unit, citing a "significant increase in the number of solar net-metering consumers" and the resulting financial strain on grid consumers.

    The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the cabinet, chaired by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, approved amendments to the existing net-metering regulations aimed at alleviating the growing financial burden on grid consumers, according to a statement from the Finance Division.

    As part of the approved changes, the ECC revised the buyback rate from the National Average Power Purchase Price (NAPP) to Rs10 per unit. The decision follows concerns about the financial impact of the rising number of solar net-metering consumers on the national power grid.

    The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) will now be authorised to revise the buyback rate periodically, ensuring the framework remains flexible and aligned with market conditions.

    However, the revised framework will not apply to existing net-metered consumers who have valid licenses, agreements, or concurrence under the NEPRA (Alternative & Renewable Energy) Distributed Generation and Net Metering Regulations, 2015.

    These agreements will remain effective until they expire, ensuring the rights and obligations of these consumers are upheld as per the original terms.

    The ECC also approved an update to the settlement mechanism for electricity billing. Under the new structure, imported and exported units will be billed separately.


    Exported units will be purchased at the new buyback rate of Rs10 per unit, while imported units will be charged according to peak/off-peak rates, inclusive of taxes and surcharges.

    The Power Division was authorised to issue proposed guidelines, subject to Cabinet’s ratification, for NEPRA’s incorporation into the regulatory framework to ensure clarity and consistency in the implementation of these changes. The decision follows discussions on the growing impact of solar net-metering on the national power grid.

    The Power Division highlighted the need for regulatory adjustments due to the record decline in solar panel prices, which has led to a sharp rise in the number of solar net-metering consumers.

    As of December 2024, solar net-metering consumers had transferred a burden of Rs159 billion to grid consumers, a figure that is projected to grow to Rs4,240 billion by 2034 without timely amendments.

    The number of solar net-metering consumers surged significantly, reaching 283,000 by December 2024, up from 226,440 in October, 2024. The total installed capacity also grew from 321 MW in 2021 to 4,124 MW by December, 2024, underscoring the rapid expansion of the sector.

    However, the increase in solar net-metering consumers has led to a higher cost of electricity for grid consumers, undermining the government’s efforts to reduce power tariffs.

    The ECC also discussed how these consumers avoid paying the fixed charge component of the tariff, which includes capacity charges and the fixed expenses of power distribution and transmission, placing a disproportionate financial burden on grid consumers.

    The committee also noted that 80% of solar net-metering consumers are concentrated in nine major cities, with a significant portion located in affluent areas. This geographic concentration highlights the need for regulatory reforms to ensure fairness and balance within the energy distribution system.

  • Riaz Haq

    Faysal Bank, Akhuwat Foundation, TCF partner for interest-free solar financing

    https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1290007-faysal-bank-akhuwat-founda...

    KARACHI: Faysal Bank Limited (FBL) has strengthened its commitment to sustainability and women’s empowerment by partnering with Akhuwat Islamic Microfinance (AIM) and The Citizens Foundation (TCF), a statement said.

    Under this collaboration, the bank aims to provide women with interest-free solar financing. Launched on International Women’s Day, this initiative reflects FBL’s long-term vision of creating an equitable and sustainable future while making a real impact through corporate social responsibility (CSR).

    This initiative will allow educators and women across Pakistan to install solar systems with flexible repayment plans.

    By promoting green energy, this initiative supports global climate goals. It helps reduce electricity costs, lowers carbon emissions, and lessens reliance on the national grid. Faysal Bank remains committed to meaningful change, ensuring financial relief and sustainability for educators—most of whom are women -- so they can continue shaping future generations.

    Speaking on the occasion, President and CEO of Faysal Bank Yousaf Hussain stated: “At Faysal Bank, we believe that true progress is driven by sustainability and empowerment, leading to meaningful action. Through this initiative, we are not only promoting renewable energy but also alleviating financial burdens and fostering long-term resilience for women. In line with this year’s International Women’s Day theme, Accelerate Action, we remain steadfast in our commitment to creating a more inclusive, equitable, and sustainable future -- one where all women have the opportunity to thrive”.

    Founder of Akhuwat Foundation Dr Amjad Saqib said: “Our collaboration is a step towards creating a more sustainable and equitable society. By offering interest-free solar financing, we are not only contributing to environmental conservation but also uplifting women and educators, providing them with financial independence and a cleaner, greener future. We extend our heartfelt gratitude to Faysal Bank for supporting this noble cause.”

    CEO of TCF Asad Ayub shared his remarks: “This partnership brings together our shared vision of empowering women and ensuring a sustainable future for the next generation. By providing access to solar energy, we are equipping women with the tools for a brighter, self-sufficient tomorrow. We are grateful to Faysal Bank and Akhuwat Foundation for making this initiative possible.”