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US Missile Sanctions: Are Pakistanis Really Developing ICBMs?
The outgoing Biden Administration has announced additional new sanctions against Pakistani entities working on the nation's missile program. The latest round of sanctions includes the Islamabad-based National Development Complex (NDC) and three Karachi-based organizations: Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, Affiliates International and Rockside Enterprise. Explaining the decision, US Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer accused Islamabad of having developed "increasingly sophisticated missile technology, from long-range ballistic missile systems to equipment that would enable the testing of significantly larger rocket motors.” “Candidly, it’s hard for us to see Pakistan’s actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States,” Finer added, as reported by Reuters news agency.
"They don't acknowledge our concerns. They tell us we are biased," said the second U.S. official, adding that Pakistani officials have wrongly implied that U.S. sanctions on their missile program are intended "to handicap their ability to defend against India."
Finer said senior U.S. officials, including himself, who he said repeatedly have raised concerns about the missile program with top Pakistani officials. Washington and Islamabad, he noted, had been "long-time partners" on development, counter-terrorism and security. "That makes us question even more why Pakistan will be motivated to develop a capability that could be used against us. If those trends continue, Finer said, "Pakistan will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including in the United States." The number of nuclear-armed states with missiles that can reach the U.S. homeland "is very small and they tend to be adversarial," he continued, naming Russia, North Korea and China, according to Reuters.
"So, candidly, it's hard for us to see Pakistan's actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States," Finer said.
His speech came a day after Washington announced a new round of sanctions related to Pakistan's ballistic missile development program, including for the first time against the state-run defense agency that oversees the program.
Pakistan has denounced the new US sanctions on the country’s ballistic missile program as “discriminatory” and accused the Biden administration of putting the region’s peace and security at risk. Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Thursday warned in a statement that the sanctions “have dangerous implications for strategic stability of our region and beyond”.
U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on X that the U.S. had “been clear and consistent about our concerns” over such weapons proliferation and that it would “continue to engage constructively with Pakistan on these issues.” Pakistani officials have cast doubt on US allegations that targeted businesses were involved in weapons proliferation because previous sanctions “were based on mere doubts and suspicion without any evidence whatsoever”, according to media reports. The sanctions are also opposed by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), the party of Pakistan’s imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan.
A.K. Chishti, a Pakistani analyst, believes that the US sanctions are aimed at disrupting Pakistan's efforts to build a second-strike capability. "The US sanctions against Pakistani firms, particularly those tied to Pakistan’s National Development Complex (NDC) and other defense contractors, appear to be a calculated attempt to slow down Pakistan's nuclear missile advancements", says Chishti. "These companies are central to Pakistan’s missile program, including efforts to develop submarine-launched nuclear platforms, which are critical to second-strike capability", he wrote in an article published by The Wire Pakistan.
My own view is that Pakistan is developing heavier rocket engines for satellite launch capability to compete with India in space. Space is becoming increasingly important for national security and Pakistan has a lot of catching up to do to remain relevant.
It also appears that the events of the past year in the Middle East have reinforced the view among the peoples of many developing countries, including Pakistan, that the only law that matters in today's world is the "Law of the Jungle" in which "Might is Right". This is causing them to take their national security much more seriously than in the past. They are all looking to find ways to deter against wanton aggression and to defend themselves in the event of arracks.
Will the US pressure on Pakistan work? The following two quotes answer this question:
1. "The Pakistani establishment, as we saw in 1998 with the nuclear test, does not view assistance -- even sizable assistance to their own entities -- as a trade-off for national security vis-a-vis India". US Ambassador Anne Patterson, September 23, 2009
2. “Pakistan knows it can outstare the West." Pakistani Nuclear Scientist Pervez Hoodbhoy, May 15, 2011
Rabia Akhtar, a visiting scholar at Harvard Kennedy School’s Managing the Atom project, believes that targeting specific entities within Pakistan’s missile development framework ignores its indigenous capabilities. She says that this self-sustained program operates independently of external influences and is not easily swayed by coercive tactics. She also contends that such measures fail to address broader regional security dynamics while neglecting the provocations that drive Pakistan’s deterrence posture.
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Riaz Haq
Is Pakistan developing an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile? - Modern Diplomacy
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/07/26/is-pakistan-developing-an-int...
By Fakhar Alam
Any missile that could reach the American mainland from Pakistan must have a range of more than 12000 km. Even that hypothetical missile would be less than half of what is needed to reach the US mainland. It would be irrational and a waste of resources for Pakistan to develop any missile with a range that has no political purpose for the country.
This range limitation of Pakistan is also rooted in its rocket motor technology. Technically, rocket motors act as the heart of a missile system. The larger the diameter of a rocket motor, the greater the distance a missile covers. So far, Pakistan has developed a rocket motor with a diameter of 1.4 meters, and the Shaheen III missile uses this rocket motor. For a missile to cover a distance of more than 12000 km (the distance from Pakistan to the US), this diameter of a rocket motor is far less.
Minimally, Pakistan would need to develop rocket motors with a diameter between 2 and 2.3 meters so its missile can reach the American mainland. Interestingly, there is no publicly available data published by any source that claims that Pakistan has developed rocket motors that have a diameter of more than 1.4 meters. However, in the future, if Pakistan tests a rocket motor having a diameter more than 1.4 meters, it will be either for its space program or for enhancing terminal maneuvering, boosting acceleration, improving the ballistic trajectory, and having additional space for advanced guidance systems of its current missile systems.
Contrary to this, according to international sources, India has not just successfully tested rocket motors that have a diameter of 2.8 meters. But it is also developing a four-stage intercontinental range missile, projected to have a striking range between 12000 and 16000 km, making the American mainland well within its reach.
In international politics, there are no permanent friends or enemies; rather, national interest remains the foremost consideration for every country. What if, in the future, US-India relations diverge due to conflicting national interests? What will America do about the Indian missiles having the American mainland within reach? Why did Vipin Narang, despite his loyalty to American strategic thinking, never openly raise this issue in any of his writings? During the Cold War and the war against terror, America never perceived Pakistan’s capabilities as a direct threat, but with changing geopolitical dynamics, America has started perceiving a direct threat from Pakistan’s alleged capabilities. Simultaneously, what if, in the future, due to some geopolitical shifts, America starts perceiving itself as threatened by India’s capabilities? What will America do then?
For Pakistan, an ICBM carries no strategic utility within the framework of its existing strategic force posture. The development of an ICBM would be incongruent with both the operational logic and doctrinal principles that underpin Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence strategy, which remains fundamentally India-centric and only regionally focused. Integrating an ICBM into its force structure would require a fundamental revision of Pakistan’s national security strategy and a comprehensive reorientation of Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine. Particularly, Pakistan would need to expand its deterrence objectives far beyond the current declared scope. Politically and economically, Pakistan cannot afford this reorientation, at least in the foreseeable future.
Jul 26, 2025
Riaz Haq
India-Pakistan missile race heats up, but China in crosshairs, too | India-Pakistan Tensions News | Al Jazeera
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/28/india-pakistan-missile-rac...
Before announcing the ARFC, Pakistan showcased the Fatah-4, a cruise missile with a 750km range and the capability to carry both conventional and nuclear warheads.
India, meanwhile, is working on Agni-VI, which is expected to have a range exceeding 10,000km and carry multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), a capability already present in Agni-V.
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“With India working on different variants of Agni with multiple capabilities, this test was a technological demonstrator for India’s emerging submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) capability,” Ahmed said.
“Depending on the configuration of the warheads for India’s SLBMs, India will be able to deploy anywhere between 200-300 warheads on its SSBN force alone over the next decade,” he added. SSBNs (ship, submersible, ballistic, nuclear) are nuclear-powered submarines designed to carry SLBMs armed with nuclear warheads. India currently has two SSBNs in service, with two more under construction.
Pakistan, by contrast, does not possess long-range missiles or nuclear submarines. Its longest-range operational ballistic missile, the Shaheen-III, has a range of 2,750km.
“Pakistan also has South Asia’s first MIRV-enabled ballistic missile called Ababeel, which can strike up to 2,200km range, but it is the shortest-ranged MIRV-enabled system deployed by any nuclear-armed state,” Ahmed said.
Tughral Yamin, a former Pakistani army brigadier and nuclear policy scholar, said the countries’ missile ambitions reflect divergent priorities.
“Pakistan’s programme is entirely Indian-specific and defensive in nature, while India’s ambitions extend beyond the subcontinent. Its long-range systems are designed for global power projection, particularly vis-a-vis China, and to establish itself as a great power with credible deterrence against major states,” said Yamin, author of The Evolution of Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia.
But some experts say Pakistan’s missile development programme isn’t only about India.
Ashley J Tellis, the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), said that while “India wants to be able to range China and Pakistan,” Islamabad is building the capability to keep Israel – and even the US – in its range, in addition to India.
“The conventional missile force in both countries is designed to strike critical targets without putting manned strike aircraft at risk,” Tellis told Al Jazeera.
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Ahmed, the Canberra-based academic, said India’s long-range missile development is openly supported by Western powers as part of the US-led Asia Pacific strategy.
“The US and European powers have viewed and encouraged India to act as a net security provider. The India-US civil nuclear deal and the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) waiver effectively gave India de facto nuclear weapons status without signing the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT),” he said.
The NPT is a Cold War-era treaty aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, promoting the peaceful use of nuclear energy and advancing the goal of nuclear disarmament. It formally recognises only the United States, Russia, China, France and Britain as nuclear weapons states.
But the 2008 waiver from the NSG – a club of 48 nations that sell nuclear material and technology – allowed India to engage in global nuclear trade despite not being an NPT signatory, a unique status that elevated its global standing.
Clary from the University of Albany, however, pointed out that unlike the Biden administration, the current Trump White House has not expressed any concerns about Pakistan’s missile programme – or about India’s Agni-V test.
Aug 29, 2025
Riaz Haq
United States’ intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard on Wednesday (March 18, 2026) told lawmakers that Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile development could include missiles capable of targeting the US.
https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/pakistans-long-range-ba...
“The U.S. secure nuclear deterrent continues to ensure safety in the Homeland against strategic threats. However, Russia, China, North Korea, Iran and Pakistan have been researching and developing an array of novel, advanced, or traditional missile delivery systems with nuclear and conventional payloads that put our Homeland within range,” Ms. Gabbard said.
She said the U.S. Intelligence Community assesses that threats to the Homeland will expand collectively to more than 16,000 missiles by 2035, from the current assessed figure of more than 3,000 missiles.
“The IC assesses that China and Russia are developing advanced delivery systems meant to be capable of penetrating or bypassing US missile defences,” Ms. Gabbard said.
The U.S. top intelligence official said that North Korea’s ICBMs can already reach U.S. soil, and it is committed to expanding its nuclear arsenal. “Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile development potentially could include ICBMs with the range capable of striking the Homeland,” Ms. Gabbard said.
She said that Iran has previously demonstrated space launch and other technology it could use to begin to develop a militarily viable ICBM before 2035, should Tehran attempt to pursue the capability. “However, these assessments will be updated as the full impact of Operation Epic Fury’s devastating strikes on Iran’s missile production facilities, stockpiles, and launch capabilities is determined,” Ms. Gabbard said.
on Thursday