Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum Draws Interest of Global Investors
Pakistan's mineral resources, estimated to be over $6 trillion, attracted global investor interest at the Pakistan Minerals Investors Forum 2025 (PMIF2025) held recently in Islamabad on April 8th and 9th. It was attended by major international companies and government officials from Australia, Canada, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, the US and other nations.
Pakistan is known to have large deposits of critical minerals from copper and gold to lithium. Canadian Mining Journal has described the border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan as "Saudi Arabia of lithium". These deposits are found in various parts of the country, including Balochistan, Gilgit, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, and the Exclusive Economic Zone of Pakistan's coastal waters. The Geological Survey of Pakistan also notes the potential of lithium in LCT-type pegmatites and super arid salt lakes. Pakistan's major lithium-bearing areas are found in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Tribal Areas (FATA), contributing about 85% of the country's lithium production.
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| Pakistan Minerals Map. Source: ResearchGate |
The Trump administration is interested in working with Pakistan to explore the potential for cooperation in meeting the US needs for critical minerals. "Critical minerals are the raw materials necessary for our most advanced technologies," said Eric Meyer, a senior official for the Department of State's Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, who attended the PMIF2025 in Islamabad. He said Pakistan's "vast mineral potential" can benefit the United States as he highlighted the White House's strategic priority to secure diverse and reliable sources of critical minerals.
Eric Meyer's participation in the PMIF2025 was preceded by a phone call from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar. After the call, the US State Department readout said, "The Secretary raised prospects for engagement on critical minerals and expressed interest in expanding commercial opportunities for U.S. companies".
In January of this year, Gentry Beach, an American billionaire investor and a close Trump ally, visited Pakistan to look for investment opportunities in the mining sector. Upon his return to the United States, Beach praised Pakistan government’s policies as “favorable for business and investment" and expressed keen interest in investing across various sectors. In a viral TikTok video of his speech at Trump's Florida home at Mar a Lago, Gentry said, " Last week, I had the benefit of visiting Pakistan, an amazing country.....unfortunately, the previous administration (Biden administration), burned every possible bridge they could, they even put sanctions on Pakistan, a close US ally... they (Pakistanis) have sacrificed so much for the American people....Pakistan is a country that we (US) need to build a strong bridge to and partnership with".
Pakistan has one of the world’s largest porphyry copper-gold mineral zones. The Reko Diq mine in southwestern Balochistan province has an estimated 5.9 billion tons of copper ore. At current prices, the value of copper and gold deposits at Reko Diq in Balochistan province is nearly $200 billion. It is expected to generate $70 billion in free cash flow and $90 billion in operating cash flow over 37 years.
Barrick Gold CEO Mark Bristow has said he’s “super excited” about the company’s Reko Diq copper-gold development in Pakistan. Speaking about the Pakistani mining project at a conference in the US State of Colorado, the South Africa-born Bristow said “This is like the early days in Chile, the Escondida discoveries and so on”, according to Mining.com, a leading industry publication. "It has enormous upside potential". He was referring to Pakistan’s untapped discovery potential. Escondida was the first discovery of copper in Chile which is now the world's largest producer and exporter of copper. Last year, the South American country exported nearly $20 billion worth of copper.
“Copper has no substitutes,” Bristow continued. “It is as strategic as gold is precious, and we’re bringing new copper projects online just as the supply squeeze hits.” Comparing Reko Diq to Escondida, he said "walking across, there's more than one porphyry, significantly more than one, it's a real endowment for the people of Balochistan and greater Pakistan". "It (Reko Diq) is world class, a gold mine on its own and a copper mine on its own". He expects a peak of 10,000 jobs during construction and 5,500-6,000 direct jobs to operate the Reko Diq mine afterwards. It will also create a lot of indirect job opportunities in the supply chain. "We are going to demonstrate (in Balochistan) that you can do something transformatory, both socially and economically".
The biggest foreign investor in Pakistan's mining sector is Canadian mining giant Barrick Gold with a projected investment of $5 billion. It is followed by the Saudi Manara Minerals with $540 million. World Bank's investment arm IFC has committed $300 million for Reko Diq. Pakistan's state-owned OGDCL has recently announced it is increasing its investment in Reko Diq to $627 million.
The biggest challenge Pakistan faces is one of security in the remote areas where its mineral resources are located. Pakistani military chief General Asim Munir believes he can deal with it effectively. He made assurances to investors that his forces will ensure security. Another challenge is one of lack of political stability which is a matter of great concern to investors.
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Riaz Haq
Pakistan Isn’t That Risky Anymore. Its Economy Is a Mini-Miracle. - Barron's
https://www.barrons.com/articles/pakistan-economy-turnaround-257d44e3
For markets like Pakistan, it can take a threat of war to capture the world’s attention. Investors may regret not having looked sooner.
The country of 255 million has pulled off a macroeconomic miracle of sorts over the past two years. Inflation has nosedived from near 40% annually to near zero. Eurobonds maturing in 2031 have soared from 40 cents on the dollar to 80 cents. The Karachi Stock Exchange index has tripled. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government reached a $7 billion stabilization agreement with the International Monetary Fund last September. More than $2 billion has already been disbursed.
“Pakistan is a good story,” says Genna Lozovsky, chief investment officer at Sandglass Capital Management, which buys distressed emerging markets debt. “So good it’s not risky enough for us anymore.”
The latest armed conflict with India, in a tenuous state of truce at press time, won’t likely knock Pakistan’s recovery off course. The country’s own shaky underpinnings might. The latest IMF bailout is its 24 th since joining the Fund in 1950. “Pakistan has been known for boom-and-bust cycles throughout its history,” notes Khaled Sellami, an emerging markets sovereign debt manager at Barings.
He sees some signs that this time could be different. Pakistan’s current bout of stabilization started with a near-default experience in 2022-23. Catastrophic flooding and a spike in oil prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine coincided with domestic political turmoil, as Sharif engineered a no-confidence motion against his predecessor Imran Khan, who was subsequently locked up on corruption charges.
“Everyone thought Pakistan would default along with Sri Lanka in 2023,” says Alison Graham, chief investment officer at frontier markets specialist Voltan Capital Management.
Instead, the State Bank of Pakistan hiked interest rates from 10% to 22%, pitching the country into recession but wringing out inflation. Sharif won a (disputed) election in February 2024, and improved Khan’s rocky relations with Islamabad’s meddlesome military, hopefully securing political stability until the next required poll in 2029.
Pakistan’s sovereign creditors—China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—rolled over their loans without extending new credit. Gross domestic product growth bounced back to 2.5% last year, and the country’s books are uncustomarily balanced. “The current account balance is positive, and they have a primary fiscal surplus [excluding interest payments],” Sellami observes. “That’s something we haven’t seen in many years.”
Stabilization is one thing, though, development another. Pakistan’s IMF program, like all IMF programs, calls for reforms that will be unpopular with powerful interests or the population at large. Islamabad is supposed to increase its tax take by half and slash electricity subsidies, among other uphill battles.
India’s leap forward in advanced industries like IT and pharmaceuticals points up its neighbor’s relative stagnation. Cotton, apparel and cereals account for two-thirds of Pakistan’s exports. It is belatedly moving into IT outsourcing, foreign sales rising from near nothing to $3 billion annually over the past few years, Sellami says. India is in the $200 billion range.
Without a value-added ladder to climb, fate and free-spending election cycles may continue driving Pakistan’s boom and bust, Graham thinks. “Pakistan remains extremely fragile to external shocks,” she says. “When there is a rally, you need to be in early.”
Sellami is more optimistic, remaining “constructive” on Pakistani Eurobonds.
May 13
Riaz Haq
Pakistan stocks soar to record high amid budget buzz, IMF tranche
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2600857/business-economy
ISLAMABAD: Bulls took charge of the local bourse today, Thursday, as the Pakistan Stock Exchange surged to new heights, fueled by optimism surrounding upcoming budget announcements and the release of a $1 billion tranche by the IMF, analysts said.
Pakistan on Wednesday received the second tranche of special drawing rights worth 760 million ($1,023 million) from the IMF under an extended fund facility (EFF) program. The IMF last week approved a fresh $1.4 billion loan to Pakistan under its climate resilience fund and also approved the first review of its $7 billion program, freeing about $1 billion in cash.
Pakistan’s federal budget for the next fiscal year, starting July, will be finalized within the next four weeks, with scheduled budget talks with the IMF to take place from May 14-23, according to the finance ministry.
The benchmark index witnessed a remarkable intraday rally, climbing as much as 1,453 points before closing with an impressive gain of 1,425 points at 119,961, marking a 1.20% increase and setting a new all-time high.
“Refinery stocks ended the day in the green amid sector-specific developments,” brokerage house Topline Securities said in a daily market review.
“The government is working to finalize a binding legal framework between oil marketing companies and refineries, with key clauses like take-or-pay aimed at resolving ongoing disputes over product upliftment and HSD imports — a move expected to bring greater clarity and stability to the supply chain.”
Market participation also picked up, with total traded volume reaching 695 million shares and a traded value of Rs39.01 billion. Pakistan Refinery Limited topped the volume chart with 50.8 million shares traded.
Samiullah Tariq, head of research and development at Pak Kuwait Investment Company Ltd, said the market was positive due to recent inflows from the IMF, noting the “expectations of further inflows on the back of the IMF Board approval.”
Thursday’s bullish momentum also comes as the market continues to recover from upheaval brought by the most intense military row between Pakistan and India in years last week. The two nuclear-armed nations agreed to a US-brokered ceasefire on Saturday.
May 15
Riaz Haq
AKD Securities
@akdsecurities
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Pakistan's 2025 GDP estimated at $411 billion
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