US-India Ties: Does Trump Have a Grand Strategy?

Aug 31

Since the dawn of the 21st century, the US strategy has been to woo India and to build it up as a counterweight to rising China in the Indo-Pacific region. Most beltway analysts agree with this policy. However, the current Trump administration has taken significant actions, such as the imposition of 50% tariffs on India's exports to the US, that appear to defy this conventional wisdom widely shared in the West. Does President Trump have a grand strategy guiding these actions? George Friedman, the founder of Geopolitical Futures, believes the answer is Yes.

George Friedman

George Friedman is an American futurologist, political scientist, and writer. He writes about international relations. He is the founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures. Prior to founding Geopolitical Futures, he was chairman of the publishing company Stratfor

In a recent podcast, Friedman said "India is not an essential country from the American standpoint". "They (Indians) are a useful ally, but precisely not indispensable and in fact, not really able to give us what we want", he added. "They do participate in the quad, but their naval force is not significantly needed. The quad being an alliance basically against China at sea. And simultaneously, it was discovered that their economic capacity is far below what we need. So it was not that they were dispensable, but at the same time, it was not something that we had to take into account greatly".

Getting tough with the Indians also allowed the US to "signal to the Chinese that we’re not going to be going to war with them, which they worried about India and to the Russians that we really are going to impose tariffs".

In answer to a question as to whether the Indians might feel the US is using them as "a tool as it tries to reach deals with Russia and China", Friedman said: "this is the problem of weaker nations trying to play games with very strong nations. They get used".

What Friedman has articulated runs counter to a quarter century of the US policy of boosting India to check China. Even some of India's friends in Washington are starting to acknowledge that India is no match to China. Ashley Tellis, a strongly pro-India analyst in the United States, recently wrote an essay for Foreign Affairs magazine titled "India's Great Power Delusions". Here is an excerpt from it:

"Although India has grown in economic strength over the last two decades, it is not growing fast enough to balance China, let alone the United States, even in the long term. It will become a great power, in terms of relative GDP, by midcentury, but not a superpower. In military terms, it is the most significant conventional power in South Asia, but here, too, its advantages over its local rival are not enormous: in fighting in May, Pakistan used Chinese-supplied defense systems to shoot down Indian aircraft. With China on one side and an adversarial Pakistan on the other, India must always fear the prospect of an unpalatable two-front war. Meanwhile, at home, the country is shedding one of its main sources of strength—its liberal democracy—by embracing Hindu nationalism. This evolution could undermine India’s rise by intensifying communal tensions and exacerbating problems with its neighbors, forcing it to redirect security resources inward to the detriment of outward power projection. The country’s illiberal pivot further undermines the rules-based international order that has served it so well".

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@ErikSolheim

US National Security Strategy: The multipolar world has finally emerged.

Dominate the Americas, respect China, undermine Europe, ignore India, retreat from the Middle East, dont give a damn for Africa. These are the true headlines of the new US National Security Strategy released this week.

The Strategy is the first official US acknowledgement that the US can no longer run the world. A US retreat from global dominance is welcome and overdue. The rest of us must rise to the occasion and shape the new world order.

There is nothing about mutual win - wins. It’s all about America first and America last.

One thing is clear: Only by standing up for own interests and showing self confidence nations will be respected by the US. The document is respectful towards China, pours only scorn over Europe

AMERICAS: The US will revamp the Monroe doctrine with a Trump corollary and seek to dominate the hemisphere. Latin American governments must unite and find a way to resist and partner with the US.

EUROPE: US shall be “Cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations” and support radical forces who will undermine European values as understood by most Europeans. The document shows complete contempt for Europe. It should be the strongest possible catalyst for Europe to stand up, unite, defend our values, integrate and achieve strategic autonomy from the US. The Trump flattery by European leaders brings only shame on Europe.

CHINA: US sees China as its peer power and will compete. It understands the enormous efficiency of the Chinese industrial ecosystem. Taiwan is no longer an ideological issue. The document is the strongest possible proof that Chinese strength is understood in Washington, while European flattery creates disdain.

INDIA is largely ignored. The same with Southeast Asia. India must respond based on its strength as a civilizational state and by building partnerships for a multipolar world with Europe, China, Russia and more.

MIDDLE EAST is no longer a core US interest. This is welcome as US interference the last decades has brought forever wars and immense suffering.

AFRICA is of no interest to Trump, except as a source of raw materials. Africa will only develop by standing up for itself and seek broad partnerships with China and others.

The old US dominated world is in tatters. The new world order is yet to be shaped. Let us shape it together!

lnkd.in/ew3kiz-H

https://x.com/eriksolheim/status/1997599874339000324?s=61&t=mgT...

Dec 8
Riaz Haq

Reko Diq Mining, F-16 Upgrade Sales, IMF Tranche: Pakistan Secures Major Deals from Trump Admin

https://thewire.in/south-asia/riko-diq-mining-f-16-upgrade-imf-tran...

In a significant shift in bilateral relations, Pakistan has secured nearly $2-billion worth of commitments from the United States within a span of days, signalling a potential thaw in ties under the Trump administration that could reshape regional dynamics.

The Export-Import Bank of the United States approved $1.25 billion in financing for Pakistan’s Reko Diq copper-gold mining project in Balochistan on December 10, marking one of the largest American economic engagements in Pakistan’s mineral sector. The US Chargé d’Affaires to Pakistan Natalie Baker explicitly stated that forging such deals has become “central to American diplomacy” under the Trump administration, emphasising the strategic importance of critical minerals for American security and prosperity.

The Reko Diq financing will enable up to $2 billion in American mining equipment and services for the project, expected to create 6,000 jobs in the US and 7,500 in Pakistan’s restive Balochistan province, Dawn reported. The $7 billion project, being developed by Canadian mining giant Barrick Gold in partnership with Pakistan’s government, is projected to produce 200,000 metric tons of copper annually and generate $2.8 billion in export revenue in its first year of shipment.

Just two days earlier, on December 8, the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency notified Congress of a $686 million sale of advanced technology for Pakistan’s F-16 fighter jets. The package includes 92 Link-16 tactical data link systems and comprehensive upgrades aimed at modernising Pakistan’s F-16 fleet and extending aircraft life through 2040, as per a Dawn report. Notably, Pakistan had requested these upgrades in 2021 during a period of strained relations, but Washington delayed its response until now.

Dec 11
Riaz Haq

Trump’s surprising policy turn on Pakistan
Washington's India-first era has ended

By Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/dec/21/trumps-surprising-...

Analysts warned that Pakistan could face its “most severe” national security challenge in at least a decade and possibly since the 1990s. Yet by the end of 2025, Pakistan appears to have gone from pariah to partner. Few nations have experienced a reputational swing as swift or dramatic. Pakistan has emerged as a pillar of President Trump’s evolving foreign policy vision for South Asia.
Strategically, senior Trump advisers also regarded Pakistan with unease. Its close ties with China especially reinforced these concerns. Pakistani authorities often boast of a friendship with Beijing “deeper than the oceans, taller than the mountains.” The prevailing expectation among Mr. Trump’s emerging foreign policy circle was clear: Double down on India, strengthen the Quad as its Indo-Pacific anchor and, in India’s long-standing interests, sideline Islamabad.
Yet even as Washington leaned into an India-first posture, concerns were mounting about India’s trajectory, from its increasingly majoritarian domestic politics and constraints on civil liberties to its uneven military performance and growing reputation for diplomatic inflexibility. These issues, long ignored or downplayed, were beginning to cast doubt on India’s reliability as regional stabilizer.
The first sign that the icy relationship was beginning to thaw was a series of discreet counterterrorism exchanges, suggesting Islamabad was finally willing to engage in substantive cooperation. When Mr. Trump unexpectedly praised Pakistan’s efforts in a national address in March, Washington was taken aback. The remarks cut directly against long-standing policy, and the infamous “DC Blob” was faced with a new reality regarding Pakistan as a newer and stronger ally.

Islamabad seized the opportunity. Each small gesture of cooperation from Islamabad earned it unexpected credit in Washington, and that credit, in turn, encouraged more engagement. What had long been a brittle, transactional relationship began to take on greater importance as both sides realigned to the new realities.

Trump officials who once dismissed Pakistan now speak of it as responsive, useful, even flexible. A virtuous cycle emerged where more gestures led to more cooperation, cooperation prompted more praise, and the partnership deepened at a pace few in Washington would have believed possible just months earlier.
A decisive turning point came with Pakistan’s unexpected showing in its brief but intense May clash with India, an outcome that reportedly left Mr. Trump stunned. The conflict showcased a level of military discipline, strategic focus and asymmetric capability that Washington had thought unattainable. Officials in Washington who had casually written off Pakistan as a fading power began referring to it once again as a serious regional actor.
For Mr. Trump, the episode redrew the strategic map: Pakistan was now viewed as an emerging asset whose capabilities could anchor his broader South Asia vision.
Pakistan’s military modernization has gained additional momentum from this renewed relevance on the global stage. The armed forces’ command structure has been overhauled, introducing a new top-tier position, the chief of defense forces, now held by Field Marshal Asim Munir, who concurrently serves as army chief.
No less a factor was India’s dismissal and Pakistan’s gratitude for Mr. Trump’s intervention in brokering a ceasefire. To Mr. Trump, a leader who speaks of “ending wars rather than starting wars,” the Indian response to his efforts likely stung deeply. As India damaged its relationship, Pakistan’s stock in Washington soared.

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