EU-India Trade Deal: "Uncapped" Mass Migration of Indians?

The European Union (EU) and India have recently agreed to a trade deal which includes an MOU to allow “an uncapped mobility for Indian students”, according to officials, allowing Indians greater ease to travel, study and work across EU states. India's largest and most valuable export to the world is its people who last year sent $135 billion in remittances to their home country. Going by the numbers, the Indian economy is a tiny fraction of the European Union economy. Indians make up 17.8% of the world population but contribute only 3.3% of the global GDP. The European Union, on the other hand, has just 5.6% of the global population and produces 17.8% of the world's economic output. 

Indian Economy Dwarfed by EU. Source: DW

If finally signed and implemented, this "uncapped mobility" for Indians will probably become the most significant part of the deal.  “More than 800,000 Indians are living and actively contributing to the countries of the European Union", according to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  The two sides welcomed the conclusion of the India‑EU Comprehensive Framework of Cooperation on Mobility, in line with the national competences of EU Member States and India and domestic legislation of both parties. They applauded the launch of the first pilot European Legal Gateway Office, as a one‑stop hub to provide information and support the movement of workers, starting with the ICT sector. 

Indians are currently the seventh-largest migrant group in Germany. Just the talk of "uncapped mobility" from India will trigger a backlash across Europe where far-right parties opposed to all immigration are gaining popularity. There have been high-profile hate incidents against Indians in several European countries recently.  While the rise of the AfD (Alternative for Germany) has increased hatred against Indian migrants, the arrival of the far-right in the mainstream political system in Germany has also started a conversation on racism that otherwise would have been swept under the rug. 

EU-India Migration Agreement Tweeted by Modi

Undaunted by the anti-immigrant sentiments, the Indian government has quietly signed labor mobility agreements with at least 20 countries over the past half-dozen years — in Europe and Asia, including the Persian Gulf — all with developed economies and most without much history of hiring Indian workers, according to the New York Times.  Arnab Bhattacharya, the chief executive of the "Global Access to Talent From India Foundation" think tank, estimates that India could double its current export of 700,000 workers a year to 1.5 million by 2030. His country, he told the NY Times, “has a workforce that should be servicing the world and not just India.” Their real aim is to deal with the ongoing unemployment crisis in India. 

EU-India Migration Agreement Tweeted by Modi

Indian economy is not generating enough jobs for the nation's growing working age population. Corporate profits of Indian firms are growing at a much slower pace than the 8.2% GDP growth in its most recent quarter. Net income for Nifty 50 Index firms likely rose 1.1% in the three months through Dec. 31 from a year earlier, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That would be the slowest pace in five quarters, weighed down by deteriorating margins for banks. Falling profits and declining currency are causing foreign capital to flee Indian markets. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pulled out over $20 billion from Indian equities in 2025, marking a severe, sustained withdrawal that has continued into 2026.  Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has seen consecutive monthly outflows, including $1.67 billion in October and $446 million in November 2025. Investment banker Ruchir Sharma wrote about it in a Financial Times op ed titled "India needs to import more capital and export fewer workers". Ruchir wrote: "Most strikingly, corporate revenue normally grows (or shrinks) with the economy — in any country. But last year corporate revenue growth for listed companies in India decelerated to barely half the GDP growth rate"

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  • Riaz Haq

    Sushant Singh
    @SushantSin
    This is nominal wage growth. Real wage growth is actually negative under the Modi govt. How can that lead to increased consumption which is what would drive private investment?

    https://x.com/SushantSin/status/2016724428952858854?s=20

    India’s consumption story has a wage growth problem | Business News - The Indian Express

    https://indianexpress.com/article/business/india-consumption-story-...

    While one-off tax cuts can boost consumption in the short term, sustained increase in household demand requires wages to grow at a healthy clip.

    The year 2025-26 has been about supporting household consumption. First, the Union Budget presented last year lowered income tax rates under the new regime. Then, in September, the long-awaited rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) was finally announced. Now, with the Union Budget for 2026-27 around the corner, it is expected that segments other than the consumer will be the focus.

    But it is worth examining if consumption – even after the two supportive measures of the last one year – is indeed doing well. The problem is that there is no clear answer.

    Yes, demand for consumer durables rose in the aftermath of the GST rate cuts, with vehicle sales increasing significantly, in particular as households took advantage of lower prices. According to credit bureau TransUnion CIBIL, demand for consumer durable loans was incrementally higher by around one-and-a-half times in the 20-day festival window between Dussehra and Diwali compared to the previous year. This, the firm said last month, was

  • Riaz Haq

    The Economic Survey 2025-26 projects India's nominal GDP to expand to ₹357.14 lakh crore in FY26, up from ₹330.68 lakh crore in FY25, representing an 8% growth rate. This projection highlights continued economic expansion with a 7.4% real GDP growth estimate for the same period.

    At 92 to a US$, ₹357.14 lakh crore converts to $3.9 trillion, while Modi govt clams well above $4.1 trillion.

    https://www.youtube.com/live/UtF6aUpqSbs?si=5xbN-_woHq-jKs-Z

  • Riaz Haq

     Pakistan steps up EU trade engagement as India deal raises export fears

    • Deputy PM chairs inter-ministerial meeting, calls GSP+ “crucial” for growth
    • Move follows India–EU trade pact that industry warns could hit exports, jobs

    ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar on Friday chaired a high-level inter-ministerial meeting to review and strengthen trade and economic relations with the European Union, as Islamabad scrambles to safeguard market access following India’s new trade deal with the bloc.

    The meeting is part of a broader diplomatic and policy push this week after India and the EU confirmed a free trade agreement granting Indian exporters sweeping tariff-free access to Europe — a development Pakistani exporters and analysts warn could erode Pakistan’s competitiveness, particularly in textiles, its largest export sector.

    The EU is Pakistan’s second-largest export market, accounting for about $9 billion in annual shipments, mostly textiles and apparel. Industry leaders have warned that India’s tariff-free access could undercut Pakistan’s long-standing advantage under the EU’s Generalized Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+), which allows duty-free access in return for commitments on labor rights, human rights and governance.

    At Friday’s meeting, Dar emphasized the centrality of GSP+ to Pakistan’s trade strategy with Europe.

    “He emphasized that GSP Plus remains a crucial framework for mutually beneficial trade and underlined the need to maximize its potential for Pakistan’s economic growth,” the Foreign Office said in a statement.

    Dar also stressed the importance of enhancing trade cooperation with the EU and exploring new avenues for economic engagement, as Pakistan assesses how to respond to shifting trade dynamics in Europe.

    The inter-ministerial huddle follows a series of rapid consultations this week, including a meeting between Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the EU’s ambassador to Pakistan, as well as briefings by trade bodies to Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on the potential impact of the India–EU agreement. 

    Exporters have warned that unless Pakistan lowers production costs, particularly energy tariffs, and secures continued preferential access, the country could face declining market share in Europe and job losses across its labor-intensive textile sector.

    Pakistan’s Foreign Office has said Islamabad is aware of the India–EU agreement and continues to view its trade relationship with the EU as mutually beneficial, but officials acknowledge that the new deal has intensified pressure to defend Pakistan’s position within the bloc.