A 2024 joint study of the International Labor Organization and the Small and Medium Enterprise Development Authority (SMEDA) estimated Pakistan's undocumented economy at $457 billion. While other South Asian nations, particularly Bangladesh and India, do include estimated undocumented GDP figures in their official GDP, Pakistan's official GDP figures do not include such estimates. If the Pakistani government decides to include estimates of the informal economy in its official figures, the country's GDP would jump to $1,059 billion in market exchange terms and over $4,000 billion in PPP terms.
In 2023 when the ILO-SMEDA study was conducted, Pakistan's official GDP was $340 billion (34% less than the undocumented GDP), bringing the total real GDP for 2023 to $797 billion. Pakistan's official GDP figure for 2025-26 is projected to be $452 billion. Assuming that the undocumented GDP has grown at the same rate as the official GDP, the undocumented GDP today works out to $607 billion, bringing the total GDP (documented and undocumented) to over $1 trillion. In terms of purchasing power parity, the total national economy, including the informal economy, is estimated to be over $4 trillion, which translates to over $16,000 per capita.
Related Links:
Riaz Haq
Is Pakistan poultry industry (2nd largest after textiles) part of its informal economy?
Yes, a significant portion of Pakistan's poultry industry operates within the informal (or unorganized) economy, though it also contains a modern, organized corporate segment. [1, 2]
Key Characteristics of the Sector
Unorganized Marketing Channels: The majority of broiler and egg marketing channels operate in the unorganized or informal sector, accounting for a large share of daily sales. [1, 2]
Slaughter and Processing: Only 5% to 6% of poultry slaughterhouses, processing, and value-addition activities take place within the organized sector. Most live birds are sold through local wet markets and uncertified neighborhood shops. [1]
Tax and Regulatory Reach: Much of the informal poultry network operates outside the formal tax net and strict regulatory frameworks, which contributes to local price volatility and supply shocks. [1]
Micro and Household Scale: A substantial amount of small-scale animal farming and poultry rearing occurs at the household level, representing a core part of informal rural livelihoods and home-based economic activities. [1]
The Organized Side: Alongside the informal market, Pakistan has a multi-billion-rupee commercial foundation with large, vertically integrated corporations (such as K&N’s, Sabroso, Big Bird, and Sufi Foods) that manage modern feed mills, hatcheries, and controlled-environment farms. [1, 2]
-----------
Pakistan's poultry industry is the country's second-largest industry after textiles, functioning as a vital source of affordable animal protein and employment.
Key Statistics & Production
• Global Rank: Pakistan is the 11th-largest poultry producer in the world.
• Output: Produces approximately 2.5 billion kg of poultry meat and over 26–28 billion eggs annually.
• Employment: Supports and employs around 1.5 million families nationwide.
• GDP Contribution: Contributes roughly 1.3% to 1.5% to the national GDP and a major share of agricultural value-added.
• Meat Share: Poultry makes up over 40% of Pakistan's total meat production.
Structure & Operations
• Integration: Dominated by commercial feed mills, hatcheries, breeding farms, and broiler/layer operations with strong vertical integration.
• Housing: The vast majority of commercial broiler farming (97–98%) uses modern, environmentally controlled housing rather than open-sided sheds.
• Growth Rate: The sector has expanded at an average annual growth rate of roughly 8.1% over the past decade.
Core Challenges
• High Feed & Input Costs: Volatility in global grain and feed ingredient prices directly spikes local production costs.
• Disease Management: Susceptibility to outbreaks like Avian Influenza (H5N1, H7N3, H9N2), Gumboro, and Hydropericardium Syndrome (HPS).
• Export Deficit: Despite massive domestic output, poultry exports remain low (estimated between $4 million and $24 million), constrained by cold-chain logistics, sanitary standards, and international compliance gaps.
• Price Fluctuations: Retail chicken and egg prices experience sharp seasonal and feed-driven swings.
Oct 12
Riaz Haq
Yes, currency in circulation and the overall cash-based economy in Pakistan have continued to grow since the COVID-19 pandemic, even as digital and cashless payments have also expanded rapidly. [1, 2]
Key Facts on Pakistan’s Cash Economy Post-COVID
Growing Currency in Circulation: Total currency in circulation in Pakistan has climbed past 12 trillion rupees, showing that physical cash remains heavily dominant in daily commerce.
High Denomination Dominance: Roughly 60% of the physical currency in circulation consists of 5,000-rupee notes, with another 15% to 20% in 1,000-rupee notes, reflecting a continued reliance on high-value cash for large or informal transactions.
Persistent Informal Sector: A massive share of retail and trade activity—especially within the undocumented or informal economy—still operates strictly on cash due to limited financial literacy, high taxation avoidance, and a lack of merchant tax incentives. [1]
The Parallel Growth of Digital Payments
Even though the cash economy has expanded in absolute volume, Pakistan has simultaneously experienced a major surge in digital adoption:
Digital Banking Users: The number of registered digital banking users in Pakistan has crossed 127 million. [1]
Raast and Mobile Platforms: The State Bank of Pakistan’s instant payment system, Raast, along with mobile wallets and internet banking apps, has driven trillions of rupees in digital volume (with government salaries, pensions, and vendor payments increasingly flowing through Raast). [1, 2]
Growth Metrics: Digital transaction volumes and values have grown significantly year-over-year, though they sit side-by-side with a scaling physical cash supply. [1, 2]
Oct 12
Riaz Haq
Pakistan has posted a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.65% during FY2026, estimates released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Monday showed.
https://www.brecorder.com/news/40444924
The growth is lower than the 3.70% estimated by the National Accounts Committee (NAC) during the previous meeting, indicating a slower pace of economic expansion than earlier expected.
“The updated growth rates in agriculture, industry, and services are 3.50%, 3.34%, and 3.81%, compared with earlier growth rates of 2.89%, 3.51%, and 4.09%, respectively,” said NAC in its 118th meeting held today.
—————
"In USD terms, India’s GDP growth is one of the lowest in the world at just 3.8% Growth."
— Subhash Chandra, Ex Finance Secretary
https://x.com/indiangems_/status/2112193592471208295?s=61&t=mgT...
on Tuesday