Pakistan Needs to Address Its Significant Data Quality Challenges

by Riaz Haq

Jul 7

Policy-makers need data to formulate good policies. Good data produced by government agencies can be expected to lead to good policies and desirable outcomes. But data collection and statistical analyses require adequate methodologies and resources. Unfortunately, Pakistan's data quality gets a "C" grade by international agencies like the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Clearly the country faces significant data quality challenges.  These challenges range from estimation of the size and scope of the informal economy and electricity demand/consumption to education and nutrition.  Here are some examples of where the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data differs sharply from what is being reported by non-government groups: 



1. Gross Domestic Product:
A large chunk of Pakistan's economy is not documented. The PBS seems to be failing in making even the most rudimentary estimates of it. A 2024 joint study of the International Labor Organization and the Small and Medium Enterprise Development Authority  (SMEDA) estimated Pakistan's undocumented economy at $457 billion. While other South Asian nations, particularly Bangladesh and India, do include estimated undocumented GDP figures in their official GDP, Pakistan's official GDP figures do not include such estimates. If the Pakistani government decides to include estimates of the informal economy in its official figures, the country's GDP would jump to $1,059  billion in market exchange terms and over $4,000 billion in PPP terms. 
Pakistan's Total GDP, including Undocumented, Estimated at over $1 Trillion
2. Electricity Consumption:
Electricity demand and consumption are very important indicators of socioeconomic development in any country. Unfortunately, the PBS is failing to comprehend the scale of solarization and energy consumption in Pakistan. The country is experiencing soaring demand for electricity across all of the sectors of its economy. The new demand is being met by rapidly growing deployment of distributed solar, estimated at 38 GW as of June, 2025. In 2025, 44% of solar deployment was residential, followed by industry (26%), agriculture (21%) and commercial users (9%). The expansion of distributed solar has enhanced electrification across the economy, lifting Pakistan's electrification rate to 21.7% in FY2025 from 17% in FY2023, close to the global average of 22%. This surge to over 200 terawatt-hours of electricity is not reflected in official data, according to a report by Ember Energy titled "The solarization of Pakistan's energy economy". 
3. Out of School Children:
The Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) Pakistan 2025 national report, officially released on March 26, 2026, shows that the number of "Out of School Children" (OOSC) aged 6-16 years in Pakistan is now 5 million, not 25 million generally reported.  "The findings on access are encouraging. Enrollment levels are high, with 92.2 percent of children aged 6–16 in school and only 7.7 percent out of school", says the ASER Pakistan 2025 report. ASER Pakistan is a citizen-led initiative, primarily led by Idara-e-Taleem-o-Aagahi (ITA) in collaboration with various national and international partners to promote foundational learning. It also works closely with over 10,000 volunteers and numerous local civil society organizations such as the Aga Khan Foundation (AKF), PAL Network (People's Action for Learning),  UNESCO and federal and provincial government departments in Pakistan. 
4. Pakistan Household Survey:
The HIES 2024-25 household integrated economic survey by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) raises more questions than it answers. For example, it shows that Pakistani households are buying lower amounts of basic food ingredients like wheat, meat and eggs in the last four years, implying that people are eating less to cover other expenses, like electricity and gas. But it doesn't explain why the households have reported significantly lower purchases of these items than production reported recently by the PBS. What is the source of this discrepancy? Is the data flawed? Or, is it missing a new trend toward less home cooking? Is the young urbanized population buying more  prepared foods? Are they ordering out more often using ubiquitous food delivery services?  
Summary: 
Clearly, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) faces significant data quality challenges in areas such as the size of the informal economy to electricity consumption, education and nutrition. 
To keep up with the demands of modern governance, the PBS needs to carry out substantial reforms aimed at improving transparency, quality, and data credibility. The reliability of national indicators such as GDP, electricity consumption, education and nutrition is critical not only for local policy but also for global perception and investor confidence. It also requires additional funding for new technology, increased expertise in field offices and more enumerators in the field to collect data. The PBS's current annual budget of Rs. 5.1 billion (US$18 million) for a population of over 250 million people is not enough to do justice. 

Load Previous Comments

  • Riaz Haq

    Pakistan’s Rs 328 billion major appliance market is recovering rapidly, led by Air Conditioners (23% share, ~190B) and Refrigerators (56%). Driven by rising temperatures, expanding solar power, and economic stability, PAEL projects 20% growth in CY2026, with sales expected to exceed 105,000 ACs and 339,000 refrigerators. [1, 2, 3, 4]
    The market is fiercely competitive, dominated by local and international manufacturing giants. Key dynamics and brands include: [1, 2, 3]
    • Market Leaders: Top players like Haier, Dawlance, and Pak Elektron (PAEL) command the majority of the market. [1]
    • Air Conditioners: This is the fastest-growing major appliance segment. Waves Corporation is aggressively expanding back into this category using Completely Knocked Down (CKD) strategies to avoid import bottlenecks. [1]
    • Deep Freezers: Waves retains a ~40% market share, with PAEL holding another 15%. [1, 2]
    • Refrigerator Penetration: Household penetration remains at 51%, leaving substantial long-term growth potential for manufacturers. [1]
    • Solar Integration: The rise in distributed solar generation is driving notable shifts in appliance demand, allowing consumers to efficiently run cooling appliances (fans, ACs) during daylight hours. [1]

    Jul 11

  • Riaz Haq

    India’s electrification rate is nearly 20%, comparable to China’s level in 2012, and is growing relentlessly by around five percentage points per decade.

    https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/indias-electrotech-fast-tr...

    Jul 11

  • Riaz Haq

    Profit
    @Profitpk
    Since 2022, Pakistan has built more genuine economic infrastructure than at almost any point in recent history: an instant payments system moving Rs23.3 trillion a quarter, a record $4.6 billion in IT exports, freelancer earnings up 78 percent to $1.76 billion, SME bank financing up 46 percent in a single year, and a Prime Minister personally signing digital trade agreements with Alibaba that are already putting thousands of Pakistani sellers in front of global buyers. Manufacturing clusters from Sialkot to Faisalabad continue to anchor billions of dollars in exports on their own. This is a strong, government built foundation. What follows is not a critique of that record. It is the case for its logical next phase.

    With payments, remittances, and digital trade are running at record scale, it is high time to give all seven million of the country's SMEs, factories and freelancers alike, the same rails, and why 2026 is the moment to finish the job. This week’s visual investigation lays out the blueprint:

    https://x.com/Profitpk/status/2080198773888721350?s=20

    ------------

    Profit Magazine is Pakistan's leading business and economic publication, frequently covering the country's small and medium enterprises (SMEs), financial markets, and economic growth indicators. [1, 2]
    Key Economic and SME Insights
    SME Contribution: Pakistan's estimated 5.2 to 7.14 million small and medium enterprises contribute roughly 40% to the national GDP and account for over 30% of exports. [1, 2]
    Employment: The SME sector drives close to 80% of all non-agricultural employment in the country. [1, 2]
    Financing Updates: State Bank of Pakistan data indicates SME financing reached Rs 853.94 billion, with active borrowers expanding significantly. [1]
    Formalization: Programs via the Small and Medium Enterprises Development Authority (SMEDA) target better access to finance and digital registration portals for business growth.

    https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/07/21/pakistan-already-bui...

    Pakistan Already Built Half the Operating System
    Payments, remittances, and digital trade are running at record scale. This is the blueprint for giving all seven million of the country's SMEs, factories and freelancers alike, the same rails, and why 2026 is the moment to finish the job.
    By Faizan Siddiqi

    yesterday