Ukraine War: Time For India To Rethink its Military Doctrine Modeled On Russia's?

India's Russian-equipped and trained military is watching with great concern Russia's losses in the Ukraine war. Moscow has lost 20,000 soldiers, nearly 500 main battle tanks and a large warship so far, according to media reports. Ukraine's use of Turkish drones, US-made anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) Javelins and Ukrainian anti-ship Neptune missiles has taken a heavy toll on the Russian Army and Navy. It is notable that India's Cold Start Doctrine against Pakistan is modeled on the Russian formation known as the “operational maneuver group” (OMG).   

Russian Influence On Indian Military Doctrine. Source: Air University, US Air Force

Russian Influence on Indian Military Doctrine:

It is well known that the Indian Army relies on Russian tanks, artillery, rockets, and ammunition. The Indian Navy uses Russian ships, submarines and missiles and the Russian Su-30 MKI forms the backbone of the Indian Air Force. Like Russia, the Indian military doctrine is based on deploying large platforms (tanks, artillery, ships and fighter-bombers) with massive firepower.  Here's an excerpt of an article by Dr. Vipin Narang, an Indian-American analyst, on the subject: 

"In terms of doctrine and strategy, although it may be difficult to trace direct influence and lineage between Russia and India, there are several pieces in India’s conventional and nuclear strategy that at least mirror Russia’s behavior. On the conventional side, the core formation in the quick-strike concept known as “Cold Start” or “proactive strategy options” was modeled on the Russian formation known as the “operational maneuver group” (OMG). The idea was to have a formation that could be rapidly assembled from tank and armored divisions that could break through reinforced defenses—NATO for Russia, and Pakistan’s I and II Corps in the plains and desert sectors for India.

"On the nuclear side, India is currently seized with the same dilemma as the Soviet Union was during the Cold War: both NATO and Pakistan threaten battlefield nuclear weapons against conventional thrusts (India, at least, presumably would be retaliating following a Pakistan-backed provocation). While both states refined their conventional concept of operations, there may have also been corresponding adjustments to their nuclear strategies. It was long believed that, in response to NATO threats to use nuclear weapons first on the battlefield, the Soviet Union had strong preemptive counterforce elements in its strategy to try to at least disarm the United States of its strategic nuclear weapons for damage limitation. It is increasingly evident that at least some serious Indian officials are interested in developing the same sort of option: preemptive counterforce against Pakistan’s strategic nuclear forces, both for damage limitation and to reopen India’s conventional superiority. It is no surprise perhaps, then, that India chose to go ahead with acquiring Russia’s S-400 missile and air defense system, despite the threat of Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions from the United States: the S-400 is key to India’s damage limitation strategy, capable of potentially intercepting residual ballistic and cruise missiles that a counterforce strike might miss". 

Pakistani Military Official in Ukraine. Source: New York Times

Turkish Drones: 

Turkish Bayraktar TB2 has been highly effective in destroying Russian tanks and armor in Ukraine. It is playing a key role in Ukraine's counter offensives against Russia's invasion. It is proving so effective that "Ukrainian forces are singing its praises, literally", according to a CNN report

Indian Army has nearly 6,000 tanks of Russian origin. These tanks are just as vulnerable to drone and anti-tank missiles as the Russian tanks that perished in Ukraine. 

Pakistan has developed Baktar Shikan, a second-generation man-portable anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) system which uses optical aiming, IR tracking, remotely controlled and wire transmitted guidance signals. It can also be mounted on attack helicopters and Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs). Its long range, penetration power and a powerful anti-jamming capability form a potent defense against armored targets.

Pakistan is also reported to have already acquired Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones recently. It was displayed in the Pakistan Day Parade on March 23, 2022, along with other military equipment acquired recently by the Pakistani defense forces. 

Anti-Ship Missiles:

Ukraine claims that its Neptune anti-ship missiles hit and sank Moskva in Black Sea.  It was a large 10,000-ton guided missile cruiser of the Russian Navy that was launching cruise missiles on targets in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. It is the largest warship to have been sunk in action since WWII. 

Vast majority of Indian Navy ships, including its aircraft carriers and missile frigates, are designed, built and equipped by Russians.  

Pakistan recently showcased its anti-ship missile Harbah at DIMDEX 2022, a defense expo in Qatar. It  is a medium range ship launched subsonic cruise missile system capable of targeting sea as well as land targets in “all weather operation” at a maximum range of 280 kilometers, according to a report in NavalNews. The missile is fire and forget type. It relies on inertial navigation technologies with GPS and GLONASS systems. According to its manufacturer GIDS, the missile features the following guidance systems: a DSMAC camera, imaging infrared seeker, and radar seeker.

Summary:

The war in Ukraine is forcing a defense strategy rethink in countries such as India which rely on Russian equipment and training. Hindustan Times has quoted an unnamed former Indian Army Chief as saying:  “War videos available show that the Russian Army has tactical issues in Ukraine war. Tell me, which tank formation goes to war in a single file without air or infantry cover when the opponent is equipped with the best anti-tank guided missile like Javelin or Turkish Bayraktar TB2 missile firing drones? There is question on Russian air supremacy with Ukraine Army armed with shoulder fired Stinger surface to air missiles as well as the night fighting capability of the Russian Air Force.”

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  • Riaz Haq

    S-400: Ukraine Overwhelms 'World's Best' Defense Systems; Reports Say At-Least 3 Launchers Destroyed

    https://www.eurasiantimes.com/s-400-ukraine-overwhelms-worlds-best-...

    Ukraine launched a new attack on the Kerch Strait connecting Crimea and the Russian mainland, reportedly damaging a warship while firing eight Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs).

    Before that, towards the end of October, reports also claimed Ukraine destroyed four S-400 systems, possibly using the newly acquired Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) from the United States (US).

    The early November attacks on the Kerch Strait specifically displayed the Ukrainian air force’s new tactics meant to overwhelm and divert Russian air defense’s attention, Russian experts have said.

    ---------

    According to the UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) intelligence update on November 2, Russia has “likely lost at least four long-range Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) launchers to Ukrainian strikes” in the preceding week. It quoted Russian media reports on October 26 reporting the loss of three “SA-21 launchers” in the Luhansk region, with Ukrainian sources reporting “additional Russian air defense losses in Crimea.”


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    As for the kind of weapon used to hit the S-400, Business Insider quoted a Russian Telegram channel saying they used the ATACMS, particularly the M39 missile, a 150-kilometer range ‘area weapon’ that scatters 950 M74 submunitions over a vast expanse. Forbes said the M39’s first victims were 21 Russian helicopters in an October 17 strike “in Luhansk and outside Berdyansk in Russian-occupied southern Ukraine.”

    Videos on X (formerly Twitter) showed smoke rising from Luhansk, claiming this was an S-400 system. Earlier pictures from October 26 also showed a detached engine of the M39 missile fired from the ATACMS launcher in the settlement of Bilorichensk, Lutuginsky District, temporarily occupied Luhansk Oblast. This proved the use of the missile on Russian targets.

  • Riaz Haq

    The Stunning Effectiveness of Houthi Harassment



    https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/the-stunning-effectiveness...



    A Lesson in 21st Century Sea Control
    The Navy’s current presence mission is problematic for 21st-century maritime operations. Missile technology has rapidly accelerated, becoming faster and more capable of reaching across ever-further distances. Maintaining sea control is a taller order than in previous ages.

    Confined to the oceans and seas, navies are vulnerable to missiles and threats from land. As technology continues to develop, those distances continue to lengthen. Presence for its own sake exposes naval vessels inside of the weapon engagement zone of modern threats, without necessarily exercising local control of the sea. Indeed, the Houthis have shown exactly how difficult it is to maintain command of the sea in the 21st century. Their small, asymmetric blockade may not be inflicting exorbitant, acute damages to ships, but the simple threat of attack has disturbed one of the globe’s major maritime chokepoints.

    Further complicating the matter, the Houthis have utilized cheap drones and ballistic missiles in their efforts. The U.S. Navy has praised the efforts of the USS Carney for its actions in combatting Houthi attacks, but the asymmetric costs cannot be understated. The Carney and other American ships in the region have likely employed SM-2 missiles (at an average cost of $2 million) against improvised drones and missiles that are estimated to cost maybe $2,000 apiece. To put this in perspective, the U.S. Navy is effectively spending a cost differential upward of 1000:1. Nor does the U.S. Navy possess an unlimited supply of SM-2s, which take months if not years to build. Furthermore, the Houthis have shown that they do not even need to sink vessels in order to hold a waterway hostage.

  • Riaz Haq

    It looks like Pakistan bought a Chinese spy ship. What does it do?

    https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2024/03/22/it-looks-like-pakistan...


    ISLAMABAD — It appears Pakistan’s Navy has acquired a Chinese-built spy ship, according to open-source intelligence analyst Damien Symon, who reviewed commercially available satellite imagery.

    https://x.com/detresfa_/status/1768859481323229565?s=20

    The intelligence gathering platform, dubbed Rizwan, is described as an “offshore supply ship” by online shipping monitor MarineTraffic. Pakistan reportedly acquired the vessel from China last year with no fanfare, and the ship was spotted during a stopover in Jakarta, Indonesia, in June 2023, while sailing home.



    It is a compact vessel some 87.2 meters long, with two large radar domes on the stern, which along with other sensors point to an intelligence gathering role.

    Neither the Pakistan Navy nor the Ministry of Defence Production, which handles military acquisitions, would discuss the ship’s role and capabilities when asked by Defense News.

    However, a source with knowledge of Rizwan’s operations, speaking on the condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the topic, confirmed to Defense News it is an “information gathering ship.” The source declined to provide further details.

    Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the Singapore-based Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies think tank, said Rizwan appears to be an affordable and flexible design.

    He told Defense News that the ship is based on the hull of an offshore support vessel, which makes “economical sense,” and that “aside from the huge radome that should serve as the electronic intelligence array, the platform might be able to accept varying mission modules if necessary.”

    The ship looks to be dimensionally comparable to Norway’s intelligence gathering vessels Eger and Marjata, Sweden’s Artemis, or Germany’s Oste class, he added.

    But Koh doubts Rizwan “has the onboard power capacity for telemetry missile tracking, like those found on the Chinese Yuan Wang series.” Instead, he explained, Rizwan is likely focused on gathering electronic and signals intelligence thanks to “onboard signals processing and analysis capabilities.”



    He also said Rizwan’s modular configuration could support mission-specific equipment for hydrographic and oceanographic activities such as undersea gliders that can be launched from the stern deck.

    Pakistan probably bought Rizwan in response to recent Indian acquisitions, as the two nations are archrivals, Koh added. And due to the relatively small size of Pakistan’s Navy, a dedicated electronic and signals intelligence platform will reduce the intelligence gathering burden on the service’s aircraft, ships and submarines, he explained.

    These platforms would have mainly used electronic sensory measures to capture electromagnetic emissions, but “would have little or no capacity at all to process and analyze the signals,” he said. As a dedicated platform, Rizwan could therefore better monitor Indian naval activity “while freeing up the fleet combat assets for their primary duties.”

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    Alongside indigenous development as well as acquisition and production programs with the Dutch and Turkish governments, Chinese help is instrumental in advancing elements of Pakistan’s naval modernization plan. Such support is seen in Pakistan’s Hangor II submarines, long-range unmanned combat drones and anti-ship missiles.

    “These and other projects will help plug gaps in fleet air defense, battle management, [electronic warfare], and [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] for a potent [anti-access/area denial] capability through three surface task groups operating in the Arabian Sea,” Ahmed said.