Pakistan Needs to Address Its Significant Data Quality Challenges

Policy-makers need data to formulate good policies. Good data produced by government agencies can be expected to lead to good policies and desirable outcomes. But data collection and statistical analyses require adequate methodologies and resources. Unfortunately, Pakistan's data quality gets a "C" grade by international agencies like the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Clearly the country faces significant data quality challenges.  These challenges range from estimation of the size and scope of the informal economy and electricity demand/consumption to education and nutrition.  Here are some examples of where the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data differs sharply from what is being reported by non-government groups: 



1. Gross Domestic Product:
A large chunk of Pakistan's economy is not documented. The PBS seems to be failing in making even the most rudimentary estimates of it. A 2024 joint study of the International Labor Organization and the Small and Medium Enterprise Development Authority  (SMEDA) estimated Pakistan's undocumented economy at $457 billion. While other South Asian nations, particularly Bangladesh and India, do include estimated undocumented GDP figures in their official GDP, Pakistan's official GDP figures do not include such estimates. If the Pakistani government decides to include estimates of the informal economy in its official figures, the country's GDP would jump to $1,059  billion in market exchange terms and over $4,000 billion in PPP terms. 
Pakistan's Total GDP, including Undocumented, Estimated at over $1 Trillion
2. Electricity Consumption:
Electricity demand and consumption are very important indicators of socioeconomic development in any country. Unfortunately, the PBS is failing to comprehend the scale of solarization and energy consumption in Pakistan. The country is experiencing soaring demand for electricity across all of the sectors of its economy. The new demand is being met by rapidly growing deployment of distributed solar, estimated at 38 GW as of June, 2025. In 2025, 44% of solar deployment was residential, followed by industry (26%), agriculture (21%) and commercial users (9%). The expansion of distributed solar has enhanced electrification across the economy, lifting Pakistan's electrification rate to 21.7% in FY2025 from 17% in FY2023, close to the global average of 22%. This surge to over 200 terawatt-hours of electricity is not reflected in official data, according to a report by Ember Energy titled "The solarization of Pakistan's energy economy". 
3. Out of School Children:
The Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) Pakistan 2025 national report, officially released on March 26, 2026, shows that the number of "Out of School Children" (OOSC) aged 6-16 years in Pakistan is now 5 million, not 25 million generally reported.  "The findings on access are encouraging. Enrollment levels are high, with 92.2 percent of children aged 6–16 in school and only 7.7 percent out of school", says the ASER Pakistan 2025 report. ASER Pakistan is a citizen-led initiative, primarily led by Idara-e-Taleem-o-Aagahi (ITA) in collaboration with various national and international partners to promote foundational learning. It also works closely with over 10,000 volunteers and numerous local civil society organizations such as the Aga Khan Foundation (AKF), PAL Network (People's Action for Learning),  UNESCO and federal and provincial government departments in Pakistan. 
4. Pakistan Household Survey:
The HIES 2024-25 household integrated economic survey by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) raises more questions than it answers. For example, it shows that Pakistani households are buying lower amounts of basic food ingredients like wheat, meat and eggs in the last four years, implying that people are eating less to cover other expenses, like electricity and gas. But it doesn't explain why the households have reported significantly lower purchases of these items than production reported recently by the PBS. What is the source of this discrepancy? Is the data flawed? Or, is it missing a new trend toward less home cooking? Is the young urbanized population buying more  prepared foods? Are they ordering out more often using ubiquitous food delivery services?  
Summary: 
Clearly, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) faces significant data quality challenges in areas such as the size of the informal economy to electricity consumption, education and nutrition. 
To keep up with the demands of modern governance, the PBS needs to carry out substantial reforms aimed at improving transparency, quality, and data credibility. The reliability of national indicators such as GDP, electricity consumption, education and nutrition is critical not only for local policy but also for global perception and investor confidence. It also requires additional funding for new technology, increased expertise in field offices and more enumerators in the field to collect data. The PBS's current annual budget of Rs. 5.1 billion (US$18 million) for a population of over 250 million people is not enough to do justice. 

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Comment by Riaz Haq yesterday

Pakistan's Solar Boom Is Rewriting the Global South's Economic Development

https://youtu.be/EKJqOh2hqmA?is=nkcpeipDe4CJKrO0

In just two years, the country installed an astonishing 27 GW of distributed solar—roughly equivalent to the capacity of every coal, gas and oil power plant ever built in Pakistan. The result isn't simply more renewable energy. It's the rapid electrification of homes, farms, businesses and industry, powered by some of the cheapest solar panels ever manufactured.

Ember's Dave Jones explains why Pakistan's experience could become the blueprint for dozens of developing countries. We discuss cheap Chinese solar, electrification, batteries, economic development, LNG demand, EVs and why distributed energy may allow the Global South to leapfrog the fossil-fuel model that powered the industrial revolution.

If Pakistan is the first large-scale proof that distributed solar can transform an economy, the implications reach far beyond South Asia.

I think this framing better reflects the interview's central argument: this isn't primarily a climate story—it's an economic development story driven by disruptive technology. That theme comes through repeatedly in the discussion.

Comment by Riaz Haq 19 hours ago

Saudi Arabia, UAE drive Pakistan remittances to record $41.6bn
Overseas Pakistanis send 8.6% more in FY26 as Gulf nations retain top spot


https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/pakistan/saudi-arabia-uae-drive-pak...


Dubai: Pakistan received a record $41.6 billion in workers’ remittances during fiscal year 2025-26, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates accounting for nearly half of the total inflows, underscoring the Gulf’s continued importance to the country’s economy and external finances.
Data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday showed remittances rose 8.6% year-on-year from $38.3 billion in FY25. Saudi Arabia remained the largest source of inflows, contributing $9.78 billion, followed by the UAE at $8.81 billion, the United Kingdom at $6.33 billion and European Union countries at $5.23 billion.

Monthly remittances stood at $3.5 billion in June, up 2% from the same month last year but 18.3% lower than May’s record $4.25 billion, which analysts attributed to a high base following Eid-related transfers.


Biggest source
In June alone, Saudi Arabia remained the biggest source of remittances, with overseas Pakistanis sending $829.6 million, followed closely by the UAE at $792.2 million. The UK contributed $514.9 million, while remittances from the United States totalled $296.8 million.
Khurram Shehzad, adviser to Pakistan’s prime minister, described the annual inflow as a historic milestone.

“This historic milestone reflects the unwavering confidence of overseas Pakistanis and reinforces Pakistan’s external sector resilience, stronger foreign exchange buffers and improving macroeconomic fundamentals,” he tweeted.
Dr Khaqan Najeeb, former adviser to Pakistan’s Ministry of Finance, said the record remittance inflows continued to provide a crucial cushion for the country’s external sector. “Workers’ remittances remained a key source of external sector resilience in FY2025-26, reaching a record $41.6 billion, up 8.6% over the previous year,” he said.
Strong performace
“While inflows eased to $3.5 billion in June due to seasonal factors, they still grew 2% year-on-year, reflecting the continued support of overseas Pakistanis.” He added that Pakistan must boost exports, productivity and investment to ensure remittances complement a more competitive, investment-led economy.
The strong remittance performance comes as Pakistan’s external sector continues to improve. SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad said the country’s current account was expected to post a slight surplus for FY26, supported by robust remittances and services exports despite higher imports.

For the first 11 months of FY26, Pakistan recorded a current account surplus of $255 million, with final figures for the fiscal year expected to remain in positive territory.

Comment by Riaz Haq 18 hours ago

World Bank Boosts Pakistan's Grid for Reliable Clean Energy

https://www.miragenews.com/world-bank-boosts-pakistans-grid-for-rel...

WASHINGTON, July 09, 2026 - The World Bank's Board of Executive Directors today approved US$375.9 million in financing for Pakistan's Grid Stability Enhancement Project, to strengthen its national power transmission network under the Boosting Energy Security through Transmission in Pakistan (BEST-PAK) Multiphase Programmatic Approach (MPA). The Project is the first phase of a 10-year program to help Pakistan modernize its electricity transmission network, reduce power outages, and bring more clean energy to homes, businesses, and industries.

"Pakistan's energy challenges are deeply interconnected with its broader economic stability," said Bolormaa Amgaabazar, World Bank Country Director for Pakistan. "By investing in advanced technologies for more resilient transmission infrastructure, this project will contribute to reducing electricity costs, bring more renewable energy onto the grid, and lay the groundwork for a power sector that works better for households, businesses and industries, as well as overall Pakistan's economy."

Pakistan's electricity network has long struggled with grid instability and transmission bottlenecks that limit the delivery of reliable power and leave clean energy generation underutilized. These constraints affect millions of Pakistanis every day through frequent outages, higher electricity costs, and lost economic opportunities.

The project will install advanced equipment to stabilize the transmission grid and improve the flow of electricity at key substations. This includes Static Synchronous Compensators, or STATCOMs, - at three major 500 kV substations, as well as fixed reactors and capacitor banks across 26 grid substations. These upgrades will help bring 640 MW of currently curtailed wind energy onto the grid, enabling the full use of 1,840 MW of wind capacity in southern Pakistan by moving power to major demand centers. They will also support the integration of approximately 491 MW of planned private sector-led renewable energy projects. Together, these improvements will help Pakistan move toward its national commitment of achieving 60 percent renewable energy in its electricity mix by 2030, in line with the country's Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement. Over its lifetime, the project is expected to avoid approximately 832,500 tons of CO₂ emissions each year, or more than 20.8 million tons cumulatively over 25 years.

"A reliable and modern transmission grid is essential for Pakistan's energy future," said Waleed Saleh Alsuraih, Lead Energy Specialist for the World Bank's BEST‑PAK program in Pakistan. "As the first phase of the BEST-PAK program, it unlocks a pathway to large-scale clean energy deployment, stronger energy security, and a modern, commercially oriented transmission sector through targeted infrastructure investments and institutional reforms, creating the conditions for future private capital participation."

The project also advances the Government's ongoing transmission-sector reform agenda, centered on the restructuring of National Transmission & Dispatch Company (NTDC) into specialized successor entities. Drawing on relevant international experience adapted to Pakistan's needs, it supports faster implementation of reforms designed to strengthen governance, accountability, operational performance, and the long-term sustainability of the power sector.

Pakistan is among the countries most exposed to climate-related risks, including river and urban flooding and extreme heat events. The project's design accounts for these realities, by requiring all new installations to meet climate-resilient specifications, including elevated platforms above ground to mitigate flood exposure and equipment designed to operate in temperatures of up to 55°C. These measures will help ensure reliable performance during monsoon seasons and heatwaves.

Comment by Riaz Haq 4 hours ago

Pakistan's Solar Boom Is Rewriting the Global South's Economic Development

https://youtu.be/EKJqOh2hqmA?is=nkcpeipDe4CJKrO0

Pakistan has quietly become one of the world's most important energy stories.

In just two years, the country installed an astonishing 27 GW of distributed solar—roughly equivalent to the capacity of every coal, gas and oil power plant ever built in Pakistan. The result isn't simply more renewable energy. It's the rapid electrification of homes, farms, businesses and industry, powered by some of the cheapest solar panels ever manufactured.

Ember's Dave Jones explains why Pakistan's experience could become the blueprint for dozens of developing countries. We discuss cheap Chinese solar, electrification, batteries, economic development, LNG demand, EVs and why distributed energy may allow the Global South to leapfrog the fossil-fuel model that powered the industrial revolution.

If Pakistan is the first large-scale proof that distributed solar can transform an economy, the implications reach far beyond South Asia.

I think this framing better reflects the interview's central argument: this isn't primarily a climate story—it's an economic development story driven by disruptive technology. That theme comes through repeatedly in the discussion.

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Refrigerator Sales Surge in Pakistan

Pakistan's refrigerator market accounts for ~56% of the country's major household appliances sector. Market penetration sits around 51-56%, with unit sales expected to surge 20% to 339,000 units in CY26. Industry leaders include Haier, Dawlance, Pak Elektron Limited (PAEL), and Waves.

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EV Sales Surge in Pakistan

Electric vehicle adoption in Pakistan is exploding in the two-wheeler sector due to soaring fuel costs and the new Pakistan Accelerated Vehicle Electrification (PAVE) program. Electric-bike registrations surged by 322% year-on-year with cumulative sales reaching 125,511 units by May, capturing over 10% of the monthly two-wheeler market.

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Air conditioner (AC) Sales Surge in Pakistan

Pakistan's air conditioning sector represents a massive market estimated at Rs 190 billion annually. However, in June 2026, the industry experienced a supply glut as delayed summer rains and later heatwaves caused consumer demand to lag behind aggressive manufacturer production targets.

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    Blog Posts

    Pakistan Needs to Address Its Significant Data Quality Challenges

    Policy-makers need data to formulate good policies. Good data produced by government agencies can be expected to lead to good policies and desirable outcomes. But data collection and statistical analyses require adequate methodologies and resources. Unfortunately, Pakistan's data quality gets a "C" grade by international agencies like the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Clearly the country faces significant data quality challenges.  These challenges range from estimation of the size…

    Continue

    Posted by Riaz Haq on July 7, 2026 at 9:30am — 4 Comments

    Pakistan Electricity Consumption Up 21% in Just Two Years

    Pakistan is experiencing soaring demand for electricity across all of the sectors of its economy. The new demand is being met by rapidly growing deployment of distributed solar, estimated at 38 GW as of June, 2025. In 2025, 44% of solar deployment was residential, followed by industry (26%), agriculture (21%) and commercial users (9%). The expansion of distributed solar has enhanced electrification across the economy, lifting Pakistan's electrification rate to 21.7%…

    Continue

    Posted by Riaz Haq on June 30, 2026 at 1:30pm — 4 Comments

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