"Desh ka bahut nuksaan hua hai", acknowledged Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi after his military's recent failures against Pakistan in Balakot and Kashmir. This marked a major shift in Modi's belligerent tone that has been characterized by his boasts of "chhappan inch ki chhati" (56 inch chest) and  talk of  "munh tor jawab" (jaw-breaking response) and "boli nahin goli" (bullets, not talks) to intimidate Pakistan in the last few years.  The recent events are forcing India's western backers to reassess their strategy of boosting India as a counterweight to China.



Balakot and Kashmir:

Indian government and media have made a series of false claims about Balakot "militant casualties" and "shooting down Pakistani F16".  These claims have been scrutinized and debunked by independent journalists, experts and fact checkers. There is no dispute about the fact that Squadron Leader Hasan Siddiqui of Pakistan Air Force (PAF), flying a Pakistan-made JF-17 fighter, shot down Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman of Indian Air Force (IAF) flying a Russia made MiG 21. Abhinandan was captured by Pakistan and then released to India.

Beautiful Balakot, Kaghan Valley, Pakistan

Western Narrative:
The widely accepted western narrative about India and Pakistan goes like this: "India is rapidly rising while Pakistan is collapsing". In a 2015 report from South Asia, Roger Cohen of New York Times summed it up as follows: "India is a democracy and a great power rising. Pakistan is a Muslim homeland that lost half its territory in 1971, bounced back and forth between military and nominally democratic rule, never quite clear of annihilation angst despite its nuclear weapons".

India-Pakistan Military Spending: Infographic Courtesy The Economist

India: A Paper Elephant?

In an article titled "Paper Elephant", the Economist magazine talked about how India has ramped up its military spending and emerged as the world's largest arms importer. "Its military doctrine envisages fighting simultaneous land wars against Pakistan and China while retaining dominance in the Indian Ocean", the article said. It summed up the situation as follows: "India spends a fortune on defense and gets poor value for money".
Pakistan Defense Spending. Source: Jane's Defense


After the India-Pakistan aerial combat over Kashmir, New York Times published a story from its South Asia correspondent headlined: "After India Loses Dogfight to Pakistan, Questions Arise About Its Military".  Here are some excerpts of the report:

"Its (India's) loss of a plane last week to a country (Pakistan) whose military is about half the size and receives a quarter (a sixth according to SIPRI) of the funding is telling. ...India’s armed forces are in alarming shape....It was an inauspicious moment for a military the United States is banking on to help keep an expanding China in check".
India-Pakistan Ratios of Tanks and Soldiers


Ineffective Indian Military:

Academics who have studied Indian military have found that it is ineffective by design. In "Army and Nation: The Military and Indian Democracy Since Independence",  the author Steven I. Wilkinson, Nilekani Professor of India and South Asian Studies and Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at Yale, has argued that the civil-military constraints that have helped prevent a coup have hurt Indian military effectiveness and preparedness in at least three important ways:

(1) the weakening of the army before the 1962 China war;

(2) the problems caused for defense coordination and preparation by unwieldy defense bureaucracy, duplication of functions among different branches and lack of sharing of information across branches and

(3) the general downgrading of pay and perks since independence which has left the army with huge shortage of officers that affected the force's discipline capabilities.

Summary:

India's international perception as a "great power rising" has suffered a serious setback as a result of its recent military failures against Pakistan which spends only a sixth of India's military budget and ranks 17th in the world, far below India ranking 4th by globalfirepower.com.  "Desh ka bahut nuksaan hua hai", acknowledged Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi after his military's recent failures in Balakot and Kashmir. This marked a major shift in Modi's belligerent tone that has been characterized by his boasts of "chhappan inch ki chhati" (56 inch chest) and  talk of  "munh tor jawab" (jaw-breaking response) and "boli nahin goli" (bullets, not talks) to intimidate Pakistan in the last few years.  The recent events are forcing India's western backers to reassess their strategy of boosting India as a counterweight to China.

Here's a discussion on the subject:

https://youtu.be/tEWf-6cT0PM


http://www.youtube.com/embed/tEWf-6cT0PM"; width="560"></iframe>" height="315" src="https://img1.blogblog.com/img/video_object.png" width="560" style="cursor: move; background-color: #b2b2b2;" />

Here's Indian Prime Minister Modi making excuses for his military's failures:

https://youtu.be/QIt0EAAr3PU

http://www.youtube.com/embed/QIt0EAAr3PU"; width="560"></iframe>" height="315" src="https://img1.blogblog.com/img/video_object.png" width="560" style="cursor: move; background-color: #b2b2b2;" />

Views: 1400

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 20, 2021 at 12:21pm

Countries with the biggest defence budgets in 2019

1. United States of America – $717bn

2. China – $177bn

3. India – $60.9bn

4. Germany – $53bn

5. Saudi Arabia – $51bn

6. United Kingdom – $49bn

7. France – $48bn

8. Japan – $47bn

9. Russia – $46.4bn

10. South Korea – $42bn

---------

3. India – $60.9bn

https://www.army-technology.com/features/biggest-military-budgets-w...

The Indian defence budget witnessed a year-on-year increase of 8% in 2019, driven by anti-terrorism measures and territorial tensions with Pakistan and China.

The capital and revenue expenditure allocations account for 34% and 66% of the total defence budget, respectively. The Indian Army has a 56% share in the latest defence allocation, followed by the Air Force (23%), Navy (15%), and DRDO (6%).

The latest budget allocations will allow the Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD) to procure fighter aircraft, maritime patrol aircraft, attack helicopters, missiles, warships, submarines, main battle tanks (MBTs), and UAVs.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 2, 2021 at 8:17pm

#French judge to investigate #Rafale fighter jet sale to #India. France’s Sherpa NGO, which specialises in financial crime, filed an official complaint for “corruption” when Dassault chose Reliance Group of Ambani, who is close to PM #Modi https://f24.my/7o7h.T via @FRANCE24

A French judge has been tasked with investigating a controversial 2016 multi-billion-dollar sale of Rafale fighter jets to India on “corruption” suspicions, the national financial prosecutors’ office (PNF) said Friday.

The 7.8-billion-euro ($9.3-billion) deal for 36 planes between the Indian government and French aircraft manufacturer Dassault has long been mired in corruption allegations.

The PNF had initially refused to investigate the sale, prompting French investigative website Mediapart to accuse it and the French Anti-corruption Agency of “burying” suspicions surrounding the September 2016 deal.

In April, Mediapart claimed “millions of euros of hidden commissions” were given to a go-between who helped Dassault conclude the sale, of which “some... could have been given as bribes” to Indian officials.

Dassault retorted that no wrong-doing was flagged in the group’s audits.

After the reports, France’s Sherpa NGO, which specialises in financial crime, filed an official complaint for “corruption” and “influence peddling” among other accusations, prompting an investigating magistrate to be designated to probe the deal.

Sherpa had already asked for an investigation into the deal in 2018, but the PNF took no action.

In this first complaint, the NGO had denounced the fact that Dassault chose Reliance Group as its Indian partner, a conglomerate headed by billionaire Anil Ambani, who is close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Dassault had initially won a contract in 2012 to supply 126 jets to India and had been negotiating with Indian aerospace company Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL).

By March 2015, those talks had almost reached a conclusion, according to Dassault.

But in April of that year, after Modi paid an official visit to France, the talks suddenly broke down to general surprise.

Reliance Group, which has no experience in aeronautics, replaced HAL and finalised a new contract for 36 jets.

In January 2016, at the time of the negotiations, Reliance had financed a film co-produced by Julie Gayet, the partner of Francois Hollande, who was president at the time.

Sherpa believes this could constitute “influence peddling”.

Hollande said there was no conflict of interest, saying France had not had any say in who Dassault’s Indian partner was.

France’s Le Monde newspaper also revealed that France in 2015 cancelled a 143.7-million-euro tax adjustment targeting a French firm belonging to Reliance, at the time when the deal was being negotiated.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 15, 2021 at 7:26am

#Modi Announces Goal To Make #India, World's Strongest #Military Power In 'Aatmnirbhar' Way. This news came on the same say that #India slipped 7 places to 101 on Global #HungerIndex, behind #Bangladesh, #Nepal & #Pakistan. #GlobalHungerIndex2021 https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-goal-to-make-...

Prime Minister Narendra Modi while addressing the event of the launch of seven state-run defence companies on the occasion of Vijaydashmi, said that he wants to robust India's defence capabilities in an 'Aatmnirbhar' way.

On the occasion of Vijaydashmi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched seven state run defence companies.

The government passed an order on 16th June to convert Ordnance Factory Board from a Government Department into seven 100% Government owned corporate entities.


The Prime Minster said, "India is taking new resolutions to build new future. Today, there is more transparency & trust in defence sector than ever before."

Stressing on the need for aatmnirbhar bharat, he said, "Under the aatmnirbhar bharat scheme, our goal is to make country world's biggest military power on its own.

He said that major reforms have been rolled out in defence sector; instead of the conventional stagnant policies, the single window system has been arranged now.


"After Independence, there was a need to upgrade ordnance factories, adopt new-age technologies, but it didn't get much attention," the Prime Minister said.

The Prime Minsiter's office informed that the new strategy for defence production will focus on, 'Import substitution, diversification, newer opportunities and exports'.

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and representatives from the defence industry associations were present in the event.

The Government of India has decided to convert Ordnance Factory Board from a Government Department into seven 100% Government owned corporate entities, as a measure to improve 'self-reliance in the defence preparedness of the country'. This move will bring about enhanced functional autonomy, efficiency and will unleash new growth potential and innovation, the Prime Minister's Office released a video informing about it.

Rs. 65,000 Crore have been moved from the Ordinance Factory Board and allotted to these 7 companies, the video added.

Comment by Riaz Haq on November 7, 2021 at 8:15pm

#RafalePapers: The 'bogus invoices' used to help #French firm clinch sale of jets to #India. Mediapart to publish false invoices for Dassault to pay at least 7.5 million euros in secret commissions to a middleman for sale of 36 Rafale jets to #NewDelhi https://www.mediapart.fr/en/journal/france/071121/rafale-papers-bog...

It involves offshore companies, dubious contracts and “false” invoices. Mediapart can reveal that detectives from India's federal police force, the Central Bureau of Investigations (CBI), and colleagues from the Enforcement Directorate (ED), which fights money laundering, have had proof since October 2018 that French aviation firm Dassault paid at least 7.5 million euros (equivalent to just under 650 million rupees) in secret commissions to middleman Sushen Gupta. This was in the context of the French firm's long and ultimately successful attempt to secure a 7.8 billion-euro-deal in 2016 to sell 36 of its Rafale fighters to India.

Comment by Riaz Haq on November 9, 2021 at 10:38am

#Indian Def Analyst Bharat Karnad: #Abhinandan "is perhaps the only fighter pilot in history to be awarded a gallantry award — Vir Chakra, for being shot down over enemy territory after a questionable...kill by him of an enemy warplane" #Pakistan #PAF #IAF https://bharatkarnad.com/2021/11/08/chinas-n-buildup-and-one-other-...

The news about Wing Commander Abhinandan making a time-grade promotion to Group Captain made me think about what brought him notoriety. He is perhaps the only fighter pilot in history to be awarded a gallantry award — Vir Chakra, for being shot down over enemy territory after a questionable, if not imaginary, kill by him of an enemy warplane. The IAF and the Indian government doubled down on the story that the combat aircraft Abhinandan shot out of the skies was a Pakistani F-16 even when it had too many holes in it. He was welcomed back, feted as a war hero with the then Air Chief, BS Dhanoa, even flying a celebratory sortie with him in a twin-seater MiG-21 Bison. Such are the small successes IAF is now reduced to.

Not to go into the details of this episode, but what really happened? In broad brush terms, Abhinandan was obviously hotdoggin’ it, picked up an adversary aircraft on his radar, went after it in hot pursuit, fired off a shortrange R-60 air-to-air missile. That missile hit something; he claimed it was an F-16. In the heat of the pursuit, he little realized he had intruded into Pakistani airspace and, too late to maneuver and scoot out of trouble, found himself and his MiG-21 shot down by a PAF plane that had him in its “cone”.

But it was not an F-16. The fact that no team from Lockheed Martin — producer of the F-16 aircraft, hightailed it to India or Pakistan to ascertain the details of that engagement is proof enough that no hardware of their’s was involved.

If it was not a PAF F-16, many IAF veterans speculate what Abhinandan had in his sights was an ex- Chinese-built JF-17. Two parachutes were observed floating down after that fighting incident, conforming to the fact of two pilots of two downed aircraft. So, why have Abhinandan and the IAF stuck to the F-16 story? Because, well, there is more glory in shooting down a frontline F-16 than a Chinese ripoff of a Russian MiG-21 — the JF-17.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 29, 2021 at 5:11pm

Pakistan buys Chengdu #J10C fighter jets from #China. 25 newly acquired J-10Cs are expected to take part in the flypast on March 23 2022, as part of #Pakistan’s national day celebration. #PAF https://www.aviacionline.com/2021/12/pakistan-buys-a-squadron-of-ch... via @aviacionline

The rumor that has been going around for a couple of years has just been confirmed. Pakistan is acquiring more than 25 Chengdu J-10 «Vigorous Dragon» multirole fighters, to face India’s purchase of the Dassault Rafale.

The news was made public by Sheikh Rasheed Ahmad, Pakistan’s Interior Minister, during a public event. According to the Minister, the induction into service of the Chinese-origin fighter would begin as early as March 2022. In fact, according to the Minister, 25 J-10s are expected to flypast on March 23, as part of Pakistan’s celebration of that national festivity.

There is still no official confirmation of the number of units purchased, but reliable sources in Pakistan claim that 36 aircraft are involved, enough to equip two squadrons of 18 fighters each.

There are also no details yet on the model of the Vigorous Dragon purchased for the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), but Minister Sheikh Rasheed also commented that the addition of the J-10s are a direct response to the purchase of the Rafale by the Indian Air Force (IAF), and that these aircraft are far superior to the French fighters. It can therefore be assumed that the squadron of aircraft purchased are the J-10C model, the latest and most modern version of this fighter currently in production.

The J-10C (or a derivative version of it adapted to the needs of the PAF) is a modern, agile and powerful 4.5 generation fighter. Equipped with an AESA active electronically scanning radar, powerful ECM, low RCS and a wide range of smart munitions at its disposal, it is in the same league as the Rafale acquired by India.

If the minister’s predictions come true the J-10C (or CE or CP)would be the first fighter aircraft in active service in the Pakistan Air Force to incorporate AESA radar technology, even before the JF-17 Block III, a domestic product. Or will we hear news of the new version of the Thunder soon?

Probably, as more funds become available, it should be followed by the purchase of a second J-10 squadron, and even a third, as the PAF’s re-equipment needs are great because it still has a large number of F-7 and Mirage ROSE fighters to replace. They could even end up replacing the 40+ of Lockheed Martin F-16s in service, if they are not upgraded in the short/medium term to the Viper variant.

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 31, 2021 at 6:17pm

What's behind Pakistan's rumoured purchase of Chinese fighter jets?


https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/what-s-behind-pakistan-s-rumoured...


While there is no official confirmation from Islamabad, Ejaz Haider, a Pakistani military analyst, also says that “the purchase has been made and the first batch will fly on 23rd March, which is Pakistan's Republic Day,” according to multiple reports.

The primary threat against Pakistan comes from India, resulting in wars and conflicts, says Haider, reminding us that the most recent escalation happened in Feb 2019 “when India aggressed against Pakistan.”

Why now?

“India operates the French Rafale and the capability is boosted by the Russian S-400 A2-AD system. As a result, that threat has to be tackled not just in relation to intentions but also capabilities. Pakistan cannot afford to allow major asymmetries in relation to its adversary,” Haider tells TRT World, explaining why Pakistan is making the purchase.

In July, the Indian defence ministry announced its purchase of 36 Rafale fighter jets from France. Interestingly, Pakistan will also procure 36 warplanes from China, suggesting it’s a direct retaliation against New Delhi’s move.

“Pakistan’s F-16 fighters are aging already and Pakistan’s own JF-17 Thunder is in the making. We actually needed to create a deterrent to face India’s purchase of Dassault Rafale,” Javed tells TRT World.

Pakistan Air Force (PAF) fighter jet F-16 performs to commemorate the country's 'Operation Swift Retort', following the shot down of Indian military aircrafts on February 27, 2019 in Kashmir, during an air show in Karachi, February 27, 2020.
Pakistan Air Force (PAF) fighter jet F-16 performs to commemorate the country's 'Operation Swift Retort', following the shot down of Indian military aircrafts on February 27, 2019 in Kashmir, during an air show in Karachi, February 27, 2020. (Akhtar Soomro / Reuters Archive)
While Pakistanis cannot create a direct symmetry with the Indians considering the size of New Delhi’s military, Islamabad wants to ensure with the purchase of Chinese jets that it can compete in near-equal terms, according to Javed.

“The Pakistan air force is one of the top air forces in the world,” he says.

Haider agrees with that assessment.

“PAF is a professional air force which, despite constrained resources, has performed brilliantly against the Indian Air Force. The February conflict proved that once again. That said, even top-shelf human resource and training requires state-of-the-art platforms,” he says.

Why Chinese jets?

China is a close ally of Pakistan due to various clashing points between Beijing and New Delhi across South Asia as Asia’s two major powers compete with each other to secure their political and economic interests in the strategically vital region.

This equation means Pakistan and China share plenty of common ground on a number of issues, developing strategic ties and increasing military cooperation. But there are also other reasons for Pakistan’s purchase of Chinese jets.

“Pakistan Air Force needs a 4.5 generation multirole fighter. European fighters are very expensive and the US is not an option because of suspension of security assistance with Islamabad, despite Pakistan being nominally a Non-Nato Ally,” Haider says.

“Pakistan faces remarkable sanctions from the US despite its purchase of F-16s,” Javed says. As a result, like Turkiye, Pakistan has moved to create indigenous solutions to develop its military hardware in the face of US opposition, he says.

Even operating F-16s is problematic for Pakistan because Washington places restrictive conditions on their use, Javed says. There are also problems related to its repair process, he adds. China does not usually place conditions on the weapons it sells to other countries.

Comment by Riaz Haq on January 3, 2022 at 7:33am

Pakistan’s interest in the J-10 spans over 10 years. The country was first interested in the FC-20 export variant of the single seat J-10A. This was part of the wider Armed Forces Development Plan 2015, derailed by a lack of funding by the 2008-2013 Pakistan Peoples Party administration.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/01/03/pakistan...

Pakistan’s interest in the FC-20 was partially driven by a need to complement its F-16, when further acquisition of that program appeared unlikely.

Pakistan also reportedly examined acquiring the Russian Su-35 “Flanker-E,” potentially to help better cover naval operations in the Arabian Sea.

When speculation first arose of a Pakistani J-10C purchase in early 2021, it was linked with one of the Pakistan Air Force squadrons based in Karachi.

China’s naval air arm, the PLANAF, operates the earlier J-10AH and J-10SH Firebird variants from shore as multirole aircraft.

Though unconfirmed, Pakistan may operate its aircraft similarly. Pakistan’s Firebirds are believed to be the J-10CE export variant of the latest J-10C, featuring an AESA radar and long range PL-15 air-to-air missiles. Twenty-five aircraft could equip two squadrons of 12 aircraft.

Royal United Services Institute airspace analyst Justin Bronk said the J-10C will significantly boost Pakistan’s air power.

“The J-10C is a potent modern multirole light fighter, which represents a rough Chinese equivalent to a modern F-16 Block 60/70,″ he said.

However, he noted it’s not quite on a par with the Rafale.

“The AESA radar and access to the long-ranged PL-15 air-to-air missile make it a potentially serious long range threat to non-stealth aircraft, although it might still struggle as a counter to India’s Rafale at long ranges. The latter’s superior kinematic performance and access to the Meteor missile providing a decent counter to the PL-15″, Bronk said. “The J-10C is also unlikely to be able to match the Rafale for electronic warfare capabilities.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 12, 2022 at 7:38pm

Sushant Singh
@SushantSin
India's 'accidental firing' of Brahmos has raised serious questions which can't be dealt in the same manner, by obstruction and obfuscation of facts, as has been done with Balakot airstrike and Ladakh border crisis. The consequences are unimaginable. My piece in
@DeccanHerald

https://twitter.com/SushantSin/status/1502836352886337538?s=20&...

-------------


Christopher Clary
@clary_co
“Pakistan has claimed that the DGMO hotline wasn’t activated to inform it of the accidental firing of the missile and its trajectory. This has been neither disputed nor explained by the Indian side.”

https://twitter.com/clary_co/status/1502845103446147079?s=20&t=...

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 12, 2022 at 8:23pm

A 'Broken Arrow' raises serious questionsThe recent missile misfire has jeopardised India's long-standing reputation in nuclear safety

Read more at: https://www.deccanherald.com/national/a-broken-arrow-raises-serious...

By Sushant Singh, Senior Fellow, Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi

------

Pakistan has claimed that the DGMO-level hotline wasn’t activated to inform it of the accidental firing of the missile and its trajectory. This has been neither disputed nor explained by the Indian side.

India's 'accidental firing' of Brahmos has raised serious questions which can't be dealt in the same manner, by obstruction and obfuscation of facts, as has been done with Balakot airstrike and Ladakh border crisis. The consequences are unimaginable.

India and Pakistan, as subcontinental neighbours, do not have the luxury of time for considered decision-making when missiles are flying in either direction. Consider that the entire flight time of this accidently fired missile was about six minutes. That is about the time available for the decision-makers in either country to take a call. Essentially, 360 seconds are all that are available to Islamabad and New Delhi between doing nothing or going to war, accidental and unintended.

India, as the bigger country, has the cushion of geography, while Pakistan, driven by the insecurity of a small territory, has a nuclear security doctrine of ‘first use’. To avoid the destruction of its arsenal and delivery systems by a pre-emptive Indian strike, it deems it necessary to strike India first in the event of hostilities threatening to break out. This makes the situation more dangerous in the subcontinent.
An environment of relative calm between India and Pakistan, with a ceasefire on the LoC in Kashmir, definitely helped the Pakistani military keep its cool in the face of an Indian missile. Would it have reacted so maturely in the midst of military or political tensions? Or can Pakistan be blamed if they assume that certain rogue elements had taken control of the missile system in India and fired on it? Crucially, if the missile had a self-destruct feature, why wasn’t it activated? Should we expect every junior Pakistani military officer to display the same sagacity and courage as the Soviet naval officer Vasili Arkhipov, the Brigade Chief of Staff on submarine B-59, who refused to fire a nuclear missile and prevented a nuclear disaster in 1962? Or of the Soviet military duty officer Stanislav Petrov who, on seeing an early-warning system showing an incoming US strike, with about half-a-dozen missiles, in the early hours of September 26, 1983, made the call – in the face of incomplete information and doubt -- that it was a system malfunction, instead of reporting it to his superiors as enemy missile launches?

-----------------------
The lives of 1.6 billion people of India and Pakistan cannot be dependent on such lucky breaks. It is for these reasons – the destructive capacity of nuclear weapons, the minimal time available to take a decision, and Pakistan’s strategic mindset – accidents are unacceptable. Questions raised in western capitals about the safety and security of our nuclear weapon systems and processes were regularly dismissed by New Delhi by citing its impeccable track-record and supposedly fool-proof systems. It allowed India, despite the concerted efforts of certain American experts, to de-hyphenate itself from Pakistan’s poor track record of proliferation, its weak security systems always seen to be at risk of being infiltrated by religious religious extremists in uniform. On issues of nuclear safety, Pakistan has always attempted to bracket India with itself, but has often failed. But now, we have come out looking like either bumbling idiots or out of control, while the Pakistanis have come out as being both capable and mature. India can dismiss all Pakistani allegations but there will be renewed questions from the US non-proliferation lobby that are going to be tougher for New Delhi to respond to.

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