With Covid19 Under Control, Pakistan Enjoys V-Shaped Recovery in Manufacturing

With coronavirus spread contained, Pakistan economy is rebounding with V-shaped economic recovery.   Pakistanis have once again defied all foreign and domestic doomsayers, including media, activists and think tanks of all varieties. The nation's monthly Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM) for July 2020 has returned to where it was a year ago in July 2019, according to data released by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.  Meanwhile, the number of daily new cases has declined from over 6,000 a day in June to around 500 a day now. There has also been dramatic reduction in hospital admissions and the need for intensive care. The LSMI output increased by 5.02% for July, 2020 compared to July, 2019 and 9.54% in June, 2020.  The recovery in manufacturing is quite broad, extending from cement production to fuel sales and growing demand for automobiles to home appliances, according to Bloomberg News.  Pakistan has successfully overcome the challenges posed  by the pandemic and its economic impact. Khan-Bajwa cooperation has been one of the keys to the country's success in dealing with the twin crises.


Covid19 Cases in Pakistan. Source: Our World in Data

Broad Recovery: 
The recovery in manufacturing is quite broad, extending from cement production to fuel sales and growing demand for automobiles to home appliances, according to Bloomberg News. The nation's monthly Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM) for July 2020 has returned to where it was a year ago in July 2019, according to data released by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.  Meanwhile, the number of daily new cases has declined from over 6,000 a day in June to around 500 a day now.  There has also been dramatic reduction in hospital admissions and the need for intensive care. The LSMI output has increased by 5.02% for July, 2020 compared to July, 2019 and 9.54% if compared to June 2020. Month-wise trend of QIM from July, 2018 to July, 2020.    
Pakistan Monthly Quantum Index of Manufacturing. Source: PBS

Cement Sales: 

Pakistan is once again experiencing a construction boom with new incentives under Naya Pakistan Housing Program. Monthly cement sales rose to near all-time high of almost 5 million tons in July 2020 as construction activity picked up in both housing and CPEC-related projects. 

Pakistan Cement Sales. Source: Bloomberg

Car Sales:

Gasoline sales in June, 2020 hit new record  and local car deliveries rose to about 10,000 units as people returned to work after easing of lockdown in May, 2020. Kia Motors Corp.’s local unit is planning to add a second shift at its factory in Karachi from January.  

Pakistan Car Sales Recovery. Source: Bloomberg

Multiple Sectors Growing: 

Sectors including food, beverages & tobacco, coke & petroleum products, pharmaceuticals and non metallic mineral products saw an increase in production in July 2020.  Muzzammil Aslam, chief executive officer at Tangent Capital Advisors Pvt., was quoted by Bloomberg as saying, “It has surprised everybody".  Aslam expects Pakistan economy at 4%-5% in current fiscal year, higher than the government’s 2.1% target. “The growth is led by an aggregate demand push.”

Summary:
Pakistanis have defied all foreign and domestic doomsayers, including media, activists and think tanks of all varieties. Pakistan has successfully fought off the deadly COVID19 virus and begun to bounce back economically. Moody's rating agency has raised Pakistan's economic outlook from "under review for downgrade" to "stable". Pakistan's Planning Minister Asad Umar is talking of a "V-shaped recovery". Monthly cement sales have rebounded to pre-pandemic level, fuel sales have increased, tax collection is up,  exports are rising and the Karachi stock market is booming again. Prime Minister Imran Khan and Army Chief General Javed Bajwa have been on the same page in tackling the health and economic crises faced by Pakistan. Contrary to the critics of Pakistan's civil-military ties,  Khan-Bajwa cooperation has been one of the keys to the country's success in dealing with the twin crises.

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Views: 89

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 10, 2020 at 10:03am

#Pakistan’s Orange Line #Metro train project under #CPEC completed in #Lahore. A total of 27 sets of trains will be put into use which are expected to provide traveling service for 250,000 passengers daily, at the early stage of the commercial operation. https://www.wefornews.com/pakistans-orange-line-metro-train-project...


The Orange Line Metro Train project in Lahore under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), has been completed and was delivered to the Pakistani side, it was announced.

As an early-harvest project of the CPEC, the Orange Line is Pakistan’s first-ever mass rapid urban transit train service, and the project is built by a joint venture of China State Railway Group Co., Ltd. and China North Industries Corporation, Xinhua news agency reported.

With a total investment of around $1.6 billion, the construction work of the Orange Line project started in September 2015, and the project is expected to be put into commercial operation soon.

Wang Yunlin, executive deputy general manager of the Orange Line project, told the media that despite the Covid-19 pandemic and tight construction schedule, the project was successfully completed and delivered.

Over 2,000 local people were employed at the peak of the project’s construction, he said, adding that the travelling of local people will be greatly improved after the project is put into commercial operation.

According to the joint venture, the length of the Orange Line project is 25.58 km, and the project has 26 stations including 24 elevated stops and two underground stations, connecting several densely-populated areas of Lahore.

A total of 27 sets of trains will be put into use which are expected to provide travelling service for 250,000 passengers daily, at the early stage of the commercial operation.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 11, 2020 at 11:29pm

Workers' #remittances to #Pakistan above $2 billion for 4th consecutive month in September, increasing to $2.3 billion, 31.2% up from last year, and 9% higher than in August. Remittances rose to a record $ 7.1 billion in Q1-FY21, 31.1% up over last year.


https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/State-Bank-of-Pakistan-T...


ERD/M&PRD/PR/01/2020-106

October 12, 2020

Trend of Strong Workers' Remittances Continues in September

Workers' remittances remained above $2 billion for the fourth consecutive month in September. They increased to $2.3 billion, 31.2 percent higher than the same month last year and 9 percent higher than in August.
On a cumulative basis, remittances rose to a record $ 7.1 billion in Q1-FY21, 31.1 higher than the same period last year.
The level of remittances in September was slightly higher than SBP's projections of $ 2 billion. Efforts under the Pakistan Remittances Initiative (PRI) and the gradual re-opening of major host destinations such as Middle East, Europe and United States contributed to the sustained increase in workers' remittances.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 13, 2020 at 10:01am

#Auto sales in #Pakistan up 20% month-to-month and 10% year-over-year. Post-#COVID19 #economic recovery well underway.

Honda up 67% year-over-year

Toyota up 102% year-over-year

Suzuki down 23% year-over-year

https://twitter.com/haqsmusings/status/1315815850486583298?s=20

Comment by Riaz Haq yesterday

Pakistan on #IPO spree, with as many as 10 companies lining up to go public. #Pakistan's #KSE100 index has jumped 52% since March, beating runners-up #Vietnam & #India. It's still one the world's cheapest markets with forward price-earnings multiple of 7.4 https://gn24.ae/aab4cb2a6f8f000 https://twitter.com/haqsmusings/status/1319290702384173056?s=20

Pakistan's market for initial public offerings is coming out of hibernation and heading for a record year. The nation, which has posted the fastest equity rally in Asia since March, will host about 10 new share sales in the fiscal year to June 2021, according to its top adviser Arif Habib Ltd.

That follows a 17-month streak of no new initial share sales and beats the previous record of nine deals in 2008. "IPOs will always be active when the stock market is performing and company valuations are good," Arif Habib's CEO Shahid Ali Habib said in Karachi.

"There is a lot of liquidity too with funds shifting allocation from the fixed-income class to equities."

Pakistan's benchmark stock index has jumped 52 per cent since March, beating runners-up Vietnam and India, and gaining twice as much as China. Yet, it remains one the world's cheapest markets with forward price-earnings multiple of 7.4 times.

The appeal of momentum and valuation is luring companies to tap public funds. Pakistan had two company listings in July. Now, Agha Steel Industries Ltd. is raising 3.8 billion rupees ($23.5 million), in the country's third-largest deal from the private sector.
Also, industrial-automation company Avanceon Ltd. and rubber-products maker Service Industries Ltd. plan to list their subsidiaries. Arif Habib, which has led two offerings this year, expects at least another five deals. The adviser has handled half of the 36 initial public offerings in the past decade, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Equity gains in Pakistan have been partly fueled by falling returns on fixed income after benchmark interest rates fell by almost half to 7 per cent. The nation's economic growth is also recovering thanks to a drop in new virus cases.

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