Surging Food Prices Push Pakistan Overall Inflation Rate to 10.9% in May 2021

Food prices in Pakistan rose 14.8% in May while the average inflation rate for July-May period of the current fiscal year came in at 8.83%,  according to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.  Meanwhile, global food prices have surged by 40% in May,  the highest rate in a decade, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. Poor harvest due to bad weather and COVID19 pandemic-related disruptions in production and distribution are being blamed. 

Global Food Prices Soaring. Source: FAO via Financial Times

In Pakistan, chicken prices shot up by 60%, followed by 55% increase in prices of eggs, 31% rise in prices of mustard oil and wheat prices were up by 30% year over a year, according to the PBS. Globally, prices of cereals (including wheat) jumped 37%, vegetable oil 124%, meat 10% and sugar 57%.  

Food Items Seeing Double Digit Price Surges. Source: Bloomberg

Higher imports of food items at high prices and increased shipping costs have added to Pakistan's food inflation woes. Among the factors contributing to elevated food prices are drought in South America and record purchases by China. Cooking oils have soared too on demand for biofuel.

“We have very little room for any production shock. We have very little room for any unexpected surge in demand in any country,” Abdolreza Abbassian, senior economist at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, warned in a phone interview with Bloomberg. “Any of those things could push prices up further than they are now, and then we could start getting worried.”

Developing countries such as Pakistan where an average consumer spends 40% or more on food will be particularly hit by surging food prices. A jump of 37% in cereals is of special concern because people in poor nations get more than 50% of their daily caloric intake from cereals. Early reports indicate that Pakistan is seeing a record production of wheat with an increase of two million tons to 27.3 million tons from 25.3 million tons last year.  

Caloric Intake From Cereals. Source: Bloomberg

In West Africa, the prices of staples are up 40% over a five-year average. Countries such as Nigeria, are experiencing food inflation of 23%, the highest level in 15 years, according to the UN World Food Programme. The WFP also warned of vulnerable countries faced with soaring prices, including Lebanon, where food inflation soared to 400% last year on the back of a currency crisis, the pandemic and the after-effects of the Beirut port explosion. Food price inflation in Lebanon is still more than 200%. Countries such as Syria and Sudan are also struggling with food inflation of more than 200 per cent, the WFP said. The impact will be worsening poverty and hunger and slower recovery from the pandemic, according to the Financial Times.

Debt-to-GDP Increase During Pandemic. Source: Business Standard


Pakistan is among world's top 10 food producing countries. After a wheat and sugarcane shortfall last year, there are reports of record production of wheat and corn in Pakistan this year. Higher domestic production will hopefully help contain food price inflation in coming months, 

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Comment by Riaz Haq on August 31, 2021 at 4:52pm

#Pakistan Boosting #Food Imports as #Afghan Demand Pressures #Prices. “If demand from Afghanistan increases and we don’t have sufficient stocks, it will put pressure on prices,” Pakistan’s Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin. #inflation #Afghanistan https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-31/pakistan-boostin...

Pakistan is stepping up food imports as it sees a surge in demand for staples in neighboring Afghanistan inflating prices at home.

“If demand from Afghanistan increases and we don’t have sufficient stocks, it will put pressure on prices,” Pakistan’s Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin said in a text message. “So we have made arrangements.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 9, 2021 at 11:42am

#UN #Food Agency FAO: World food prices hit 10-year high. On a year-on-year basis, prices up 32.8% in September, 2021. #wheat #vegetables #oil #sugar #meat #agriculture #Inflation - Pakistan Today https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2021/10/07/world-food-prices-hit-1...

World food prices rose for a second consecutive month in September to reach a 10-year peak, driven by gains for cereals and vegetable oils, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday.

The Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) also projected record global cereal production in 2021, but said this would be outpaced by forecast consumption.

The FAO’s food price index, which tracks international prices of the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 130 points last month, the highest reading since September 2011, according to the agency’s data.

The figure compared with a revised 128.5 for August. The August figure was previously given as 127.4.

On a year-on-year basis, prices were up 32.8 per cent in September.

Agricultural commodity prices have risen steeply in the past year, fuelled by harvest setbacks and Chinese demand.

The FAO’s cereal price index rose by two per cent in September from the previous month. That was led by a near four per cent increase for wheat prices, with the UN agency citing tightening export availabilities amid strong demand.

“Among major cereals, wheat will be the focus in the coming weeks as demand needs to be tested against fast-rising prices,” FAO Senior Economist Abdolreza Abbassian said in a statement.

World vegetable oil prices were up 1.7pc in the month, showing a year-on-year rise of about 60pc, as palm oil prices climbed on robust import demand and concerns over labour shortages in Malaysia, the FAO said.

Palm oil futures have rallied further in early October to hit record highs as a surge in crude oil markets has lent further support to vegetable oils used in biodiesel.

Global sugar prices rose 0.5pc in September with concern over adverse crop weather in top exporter Brazil partly offset by slowing import demand and a favourable production outlook in India and Thailand, according to the FAO.

For cereal production, the FAO projected a record world crop of 2.8 billion tonnes in 2021, up slightly from 2.78bn estimated a month ago.

That would be below world cereal use of 2.81bn tonnes, a forecast revised up by 2.7 million tonnes from a month earlier mainly to reflect increased wheat use in animal feed, the FAO said in a cereal supply and demand note.

Global cereal stocks were expected to ease in 2021/22 but would still be at a comfortable level, the FAO added.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 9, 2021 at 11:44am

#Meat prices are soaring workdwide, incl #US: #Beef prices alone jumped 12.2% over the last year, according to new consumer inflation data on Tuesday, making it one of the costliest items in the surging bills that consumers face today at the grocery store

https://www.npr.org/2021/09/14/1036678722/chicken-beef-pork-meat-pr...

Prices for beef, pork and chicken have surged during the pandemic, and the Biden administration believes it knows who's partly behind it: a handful of big meatpacking companies that control most of the country's supply.

Beef prices alone jumped 12.2% over the last year, according to new consumer inflation data on Tuesday, making it one of the costliest items in the surging bills that consumers face today at the grocery store.

"It's just outrageous. I can't even understand how people are supposed to be able to pay that kind of money for basic stuff like ground beef," says Adam Jones, who raises Angus cattle in northwest Kansas. "We're not talking about filet mignon. We're just talking about being able to make spaghetti or being able to make tacos."

The surge in meat prices is contributing to high inflation. The Labor Department reported Tuesday that consumer price index rose 5.3% in the 12 months ending in August. That's down slightly from June and July when inflation was running at 5.4% — but it's still near the highest level in nearly 13 years. Pork prices jumped 9.8% in the last year while chicken prices jumped 7.2%.

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