Comment by Riaz Haq on March 28, 2022 at 6:37pm

If #Russians were really losing the war as being reported by some #western #media, why would #Ukraine’s #Zelensky concede to #Putin’s key demand for his country’s neutrality? #NATO #UkraineRussiaWar

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/world/ukraines-zelensky-to-offer-n...

Ukraine could declare neutrality and offer security guarantees to Russia to secure peace "without delay," President Volodymyr Zelensky said ahead of another planned round of talks — though he said only a face-to-face meeting with Russia's leader could end the war.

While hinting at possible concessions in an interview with independent Russian media outlets, Zelensky stressed that Ukraine's priority is ensuring its sovereignty and its "territorial integrity" — preventing Russia from carving up the country, something Ukraine and the West say could now be Moscow's goal.

But, Zelensky added: "Security guarantees and neutrality, non-nuclear status of our state — we are ready to go for it."

The Ukrainian leader has suggested as much before, but rarely so forcefully, and the latest remarks come as the two sides said talks would resume Tuesday.

Russia has long demanded that Ukraine drop any hope of joining the western NATO alliance, which Moscow sees as a threat. Zelensky said that the question of neutrality, which would keep Ukraine out of NATO or other military alliances, should be put to Ukrainian voters in a referendum after Russian troops withdraw.

Zelensky has also long stressed that Ukraine needs security guarantees of its own as part of any deal.

"We must come to an agreement with the president of the Russian Federation, and in order to reach an agreement, he needs to get out of there on his own feet … and come to meet me," he also said in an interview that Russia barred its media from publishing.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Monday that the two presidents could meet, but only after the key elements of a potential deal are negotiated.

"The meeting is necessary once we have clarity regarding solutions on all key issues," Lavrov said in an interview with Serbian media. He accused Ukraine of only wanting to "imitate talks," but said Russia needed concrete results.

In an overnight video address to his nation, Zelensky said Ukraine sought peace "without delay" in talks due to get underway in Istanbul.

That location was agreed after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday, the Turkish leader's office said. Negotiators are expected to arrive Monday.

Earlier talks, both by video and in person, have failed to make progress on ending a more than month-old war that has killed thousands and driven more than 10 million Ukrainians from their homes — including almost 4 million from their country.

The war has led Western countries to impose punishing sanctions on Russia, squeezing its economy. Putin said recently that Russia would demand "unfriendly" countries pay for its natural gas exports only in rubles — a move economists said appeared designed to try to support the Russian currency, which has collapsed.

Germany's energy minister said Monday that the Group of Seven major economies rejected that demand. Robert Habeck told reporters that "all G-7 ministers agreed completely that this (would be) a one-sided and clear breach of the existing contracts."

With Russia's offensive stalled in many areas, its troops have resorted to pummeling Ukrainian towns and cities with rockets and artillery in a grinding war. Fierce fighting has raged on the outskirts of Kyiv, but Russian troops remain miles from the city center, their aim of quickly encircling the capital faltering

In Stoyanka village near Kyiv, Ukrainian soldier Serhiy Udod said Russian troops had taken up defensive positions and suffered heavy losses.

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 28, 2022 at 6:47pm

In 2020, #Russia was the world's 11th-largest #economy, according to the World Bank. But by the end of this year (2022), it (#Russian #GDP) may rank no higher than No. 15, based on the end-February rouble exchange rate. #UkraineUnderAttack #Sanctions https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/four-weeks-war-scar-russias-ec...

Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 sparked sweeping sanctions that ripped the country out of the global financial fabric and sent its economy reeling.

A month on, Russia's currency has lost a large part of its value and its bonds and stocks have been ejected from indexes. Its people are experiencing economic pain that is likely to last for years to come.

Below are five charts showing how the past month has changed Russia's economy and its global standing:


In 2020, Russia was the world's 11th-largest economy, according to the World Bank. But by the end of this year, it may rank no higher than No. 15, based on the end-February rouble exchange rate, according to Jim O'Neill, the former Goldman Sachs economist who coined the BRIC acronym to describe the four big emerging economies Brazil, Russia, India and China.

Recession looks inevitable. Economists polled by the central bank predicted an 8% contraction this year and for inflation to reach 20%.


Forecasts from economists outside Russia are even gloomier. The Institute of International Finance predicts a 15% contraction in 2022, followed by a 3% contraction in 2023.

"Altogether, our projections mean that current developments are set to wipe out the economic gains of roughly fifteen years," the IIF said in a note.

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 1, 2022 at 8:09am

Ukraine crisis: The war that is changing relations, rules
S Gurumurthy, Chairman, VIF

https://www.vifindia.org/article/2022/march/28/ukraine-crisis-the-w...

Having pushed Ukraine into war, the US does not know how to save it. Having started it, Russia does not know where to end it. Having been pushed into the war, Ukraine does not know how to come out of it. It accuses its adversary Russia saying it is an invader and charges that its friends are betrayers. The UN Security Council keeps on meeting without any result. The global TV network for which the war is a reality show, a boon, keeps demonising Russia and valourising Ukraine. What the desperate Ukraine needs is a ceasefire. It is running from pillar to post — from India to Turkey to France, to Israel, to Japan — pleading with them to talk to Putin for a ceasefire. Everyone is talking to everyone else.

But Biden is not talking to Putin and Putin is not talking to Zelenskyy. This is the sad state of the efforts to stop the war. Poor Zelenskyy. What he is now saying to end the war — that we will not apply to join NATO, we will remain neutral — had he said that before, the war would not have started. Russia has staked everything – its goodwill, its economy and its last atom bomb – like a jihadi, making the West shudder to think of taking it head on. But the war is bound to end. When is the only question. When it does end, Russia would have got all that it wanted and Ukraine would have given all that it had denied. And the West would have realised and the world would have known how needless the war was. But, what kind of world will the pointless war leave behind?

A world of distrust
The worst outcome of the Ukraine war is that it has shown that anything and everything can be politicised and weaponised — from financial transaction systems like SWIFT, to banks, private companies like Google to civilian airspace. SWIFT is a high security neutral financial network created by an NGO and used by 11,000 financial institutions in 200 countries. By jamming this critical network, the Ukraine war has destroyed the most basic of mutual trust among nations. Take India. The share of Google in Indian email accounts is 62 per cent. Were India to fall foul of the West, the entire country can be brought to a halt by Google. Each nation or group of nations will now look for alternatives.

Another message is that even Switzerland, which remained neutral in the two world wars, can’t remain neutral in a West vs others scenario. A telling message of the Ukraine war is that no country can trust even the global commons. It leaves behind a world of distrust. It will increasingly force each nation to be on its own — atmanirbhar being the Indian idiom for it, the very antithesis of globalisation. An alternative to SWIFT is already underway with some 63 central banks collaborating on a new payments system.

US leadership dented
The Ukraine war seems to have dented the US global leadership in more than one sense. First, it has delivered the most telling message that the US can’t protect its own protégé. Next, that it had to solicit a virtual meeting between Biden and Xi Jinping (XJP) to get China to the US side or to end the war itself, exposed its weakness. Donald Trump would perhaps have handled Russia and Ukraine differently, not allowed China to be the proverbial monkey between two tigers, the US and Russia.

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 1, 2022 at 8:10am

Ukraine crisis: The war that is changing relations, rules
S Gurumurthy, Chairman, VIF

https://www.vifindia.org/article/2022/march/28/ukraine-crisis-the-w...

Anyway the two-hour talk Biden had with XJP did not go well for him. XJP reportedly snubbed Biden saying “those who tied the bell to the tiger must untie it,” clearly blaming NATO for the war. XJP used the talk to advance China’s claim to be equal to the US, saying they should jointly shoulder “international responsibilities” for world peace and tranquility. According to a Chinese report, XJP seems to have said that one hand cannot clap, suggesting that NATO should have a dialogue with Putin and address his security concerns, implying NATO expansion as the issue. XJP, of course, has also spoken in support of the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states. He seems to have insisted on bringing the China-US ties under turmoil over a host of issues, including Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Tibet, on “right track” — something completely beyond the agenda of Biden on that day.

The US media had reported that Biden threatened XJP. On the contrary, he seems to have got snubbed. Biden’s effort to wean China away from Russia has failed at the minimum. If this is what the US got from China, The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia and the UAE declined calls from Biden to ease oil prices unless the US supported them in Yemen and elsewhere. Arab allies of the US have refused to toe its line. Israel did criticise the Russian attack but its stand was so nuanced as not to take the side of the West. Turkey’s position is identical to Israel’s.

Al-Jazeera even sees a strong alliance between Russia and UAE. Another collateral setback to the US is Syrian president Assad’s visit (after 11 years) to UAE about which the US could only lament that it was “disappointed and troubled”. Syria and Russia are close. On top of it all, Saudi Arabia, whose oil has been priced in US dollars for five decades, is considering pricing it in Yuan for sales to China. One more important development. The Chinese foreign minister was invited for the first time to the meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. These are not ordinary developments. The Ukraine war has undoubtedly eroded US influence over even its allies.

China’s Taiwan angle
China seems to have gained far more than it has invested in Ukraine. By subtly encouraging the US vs Russia scenario in Ukraine, China had ensured that the focus of the Biden regime was more on Russia and Ukraine and less on containing China. Being surreptitiously privy to and supporting Russia on Ukraine action, Beijing has gained an IOU from Russia if in future it has to move on Taiwan. XJP’s firm and equal dealing with Biden has dented the US capacity to confront China on Taiwan. If Biden had secretly conceded more to XJP on Taiwan as some reports say, China would have hit a jackpot.

Despite that, if the US had drawn a blank with XJP, it would have been a disaster for Biden. China’s Ukraine strategy seems intended to advance its efforts to grab Taiwan – its greatest ambition and top most priority of XJP. The Ukraine war has exposed the limitations of the US and the West to step in to save its non-formal ally. The Taiwan Relations Act only ensures defence supplies by the US to Taiwan and nothing further. In comparison to Ukraine, which the US recognises as an independent nation, Taiwan’s status is much inferior. If China makes a decisive move against Taiwan, the US could do very little given its show in Ukraine — to say nothing of the Afghanistan debacle.

India’s growing stature
Despite being part of Quad and with deep strategic partnership with the US, India’s neutrality, with an implicit pro-Russian tilt, was a calculated geopolitical risk India took at the very start of the Ukraine war. Subsequent developments not only won understanding but also acclaim for it.

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 1, 2022 at 8:11am

Ukraine crisis: The war that is changing relations, rules
S Gurumurthy, Chairman, VIF

https://www.vifindia.org/article/2022/march/28/ukraine-crisis-the-w...


A displeased America had to concede India was an exception among its allies. Surprisingly, amid the raging Ukraine war New Delhi became the centre of hyper diplomatic activity. Scott Morrison, the Prime Minister of Australia, a Quad constituent, had a virtual meeting with the Indian Prime Minister, promised investments and said that the Quad nations understood India on Ukraine. Fumio Kishida, Prime Minister of Japan, another Quad member, paid his first official visit abroad to India. And keeping aside the differences between the two on Ukraine, he signed six strategic agreements and committed to investing $42 billion in the next five years. The Greek foreign minister was in Delhi on March 22 and 23 and the Oman foreign affairs minister was in Delhi for two full days, March 23 and 24.

China and India have had border clashes for the last two years. Surprisingly, its foreign minister Wang Yi is visiting Delhi on March 25 — a significant development. India’s independent position on Ukraine is itself a message to China that India would withstand US pressure. If it can lead to some trust and understanding between China and India on the borders, that can pave the way for an informal Russia-China-India axis for future. Naftali Bennett, the Prime Minister of Israel, a US ally, is making a four-day long visit to India in April first week at the invitation of “his friend” Indian Prime Minister Modi. India is boldly going ahead with the purchase of Russian oil amid US sanctions on Russia.

Though India has not voted for Russia, it has taken a firm position on the discovery of a bio-weapon facility in Ukraine funded by America. And America, despite loosely calling India shaky on the Ukraine war, has not applied the CAATSA law to stop the sale of Russia’s missile system to India. Undoubtedly, the Ukraine war diplomacy has shown India’s rising stature. The greatest tribute to India’s policies came from the most unlikely of quarters, Pakistan. Praising India’s foreign policy as free and independent, Prime Minister Imran Khan said, “India is allied with America and is part of the Quad alliance and yet it is neutral on Ukraine, imports oil from Russia despite US sanctions, because its policy is oriented to the betterment of its own people.”

Shift away from the dollar?
The war’s collateral impact may be on the US dollar and the global financial order itself. With the dollar-based globalisation already under stress, the role of the greenback in the global financial system may decline. The dollar power enabled dominance of the financial economy over the real economy, particularly the commodity economy. The US sanctions which are bound to affect the Russian oil sale, may also affect the US dollar.

The strength of the US dollar depended, said two Harvard economists in 2006, not on the laws of economics but on the laws of physics, which said a dark matter sustains the universe. The dark matter which sustains the dollar value, they said, is the insurance that the US system and geopolitical power provides to the dollar. That insurance is what is under stress since 2008. With the rise of Asia and China, the US dollar cannot be said to continue to have the same insurance value. The share of USD in the global forex reserves has touched a 25-year low of about 59 percent.

If important nations shift to their own fiat currency based trade like the Rupee-Ruble arrangement between India and Russia and if an alternative to SWIFT can be found, the move away from dollar can accelerate. For instance, if India and China begin paying for their trade in their fiat currencies rated to the US dollar and at the year-end pay the net in terms of the dollar, the overall demand for the dollar will contract rapidly. It is the demand for the dollar that sustains its value. These kinds of developments post the Ukraine war can have a far reaching impact.

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 3, 2022 at 10:13am

How Nato's Bucharest summit came back to bite in Ukraine

https://euobserver.com/opinion/154452

Theres's a cliche that backroom negotiations at big summits sometimes feel as if they're taking place in a "hall of mirrors."

In the case of the 2008 Nato summit in Bucharest, where Ukraine was first offered the now red-hot issue of joining the Western alliance, it was also literally true.

The Nato summit was held in Nikolai Ceaușescu's People's Palace (now the Palace of the Parliament). It's a fairytale-turned-nightmare monument to the ego and self-promotion of the late Romanian dictator.

Ceaușescu ended up being executed by his own people on Christmas Day 1989, indeed machine-gunned along with his wife by his own army, after a failed escape attempt to flee his own country by helicopter his condemnation at the hands of an ad hoc court.

The grisly outcome for Ceaușescu was born of the resentment at his totalitarian rule that one guest at that summit, Vladimir Putin, may now care to reflect upon.

From the outside, Ceaușescu's Palace is a gigantic monstrosity in the wedding-cake style, with tiered layers, sitting atop the major promontory in the capital city.

On the inside, it was like being trapped inside a madman's brain.

There's a never-ending David Lynch meets MC Escher labyrinth-vortex of state banqueting rooms and ballrooms all leading on and on from one another, seemingly endlessly, and into infinity, and with no practical purpose whatsoever.

It made Stanley Kubrick's Overlook Hotel in The Shining seem like a cosy bed-and-breakfast.

I was covering the summit for Agence France-Press as part of a team of around 12 reporters and photographers. My own personal news beat or patch was Macedonia — definitely the lowest rung of the ladder. One of the main thrusts of the summit was Afghanistan, with guest appearances from Hamid Karzhai and Putin himself.

I remember having my arm up to ask a question at the joint closing Putin-Karzai press conference until both arms hurt in their sockets. I never got called — which was a shame, as my question would have been: "President Putin, do you have any advice for Nato on how to invade and occupy Afghanistan?"

The short ones are the best ones. Embarrass Karzai, make Putin laugh — but also put him on the spot.

Meanwhile, Ukraine.

Professional historians and diplomats please correct me because, first, this is 14 years ago; second, I wasn't covering this angle; and, third, even the official communique from the summit only listed it as item 23: but I can't help recall how US president George W. Bush was pressing his fellow Nato delegates to give Ukraine and Georgia Nato membership.

The European end of the Nato equation (then led by Angela Merkel, Gordon Brown, Nicolas Sarkozy) pushed back, until the final communique offered them the aspiration of joining a compromise half-way house called the "Membership Action Plan".

It was halfway down the summit declaration of 50 points, and it read — in full — as follows:

"Nato welcomes Ukraine's and Georgia's Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in Nato. We agreed today that these countries will become members of Nato. Both nations have made valuable contributions to Alliance operations. We welcome the democratic reforms in Ukraine and Georgia and look forward to free and fair parliamentary elections in Georgia in May. MAP [eds: membership action plan] is the next step for Ukraine and Georgia on their direct way to membership. Today we make clear that we support these countries' applications for MAP. Therefore we will now begin a period of intensive engagement with both at a high political level to address the questions still outstanding pertaining to their MAP applications. We have asked Foreign Ministers to make a first assessment of progress at their December 2008 meeting. Foreign Ministers have the authority to decide on the MAP applications of Ukraine and Georgia."

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 4, 2022 at 11:05am

US defense contractors see longer term benefits from war in Ukraine

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220403-us-defense-contracto...


New York (AFP) – US arms manufacturers are not cashing in directly from the thousands of missiles, drones and other weapons being sent to Ukraine, but they do stand to profit big-time over the long run by supplying countries eager to boost their defenses against Russia.

Like other Western countries, the United States has turned to its own stocks to furnish Ukraine with shoulder-fired Stinger and Javelin missiles, for instance. These weapons from Lockheed-Martin and Raytheon Technologies were paid for some time ago.

So these companies' first quarter results, due to be released in coming weeks, should not be especially fatter because of the rush to arm Ukraine as it fights off the Russian invasion.

But those US military weapons stockpiles being tapped for Kyiv will need to be replenished.

The Pentagon plans to use $3.5 billion earmarked for this purpose in a spending bill approved in mid-March, a Defense Department spokesman told AFP.

The Javelin anti-tank missile is made by a joint venture between Lockheed and Raytheon. The latter's Stinger anti-aircraft missile had ceased to be produced until the Pentagon ordered $340 million of them last summer.

"We are exploring options to more quickly replenish US inventories and backfill depleted stocks of allies and partners," the spokesman said.

"It will take time to revive the industrial base -- at the prime and at sub-tier suppliers -- to enable production to resume," he added.

The profits that the companies make from these missiles, known for being simple to use, will not exactly be staggering, defense industry experts told AFP.

"If 1,000 Stingers and 1,000 Javelins get shipped to Eastern Europe each month for the next year, which is not unlikely given the current pace, in our view, we think it would equate to $1 billion to $2 billion in revenue for both program manufacturers, which is material," said Colin Scarola of CFRA, an investment research firm.

Raytheon's and Lockheed's revenue figures last year dwarf that amount, however: $64 billion and $67 billion, respectively.

"Raytheon probably made more money off selling a Patriot missile system to Saudi Arabia than they will from making Stinger missiles," said Jordan Cohen, an arms sales specialist at the Cato Institute.

"They're only going to put so much effort into producing those weapons that are not that valuable," Cohen told AFP.

Lockheed, Raytheon and another arms manufacturer, Northrop Grumman, did not respond to AFP requests for comment.

General Dynamics said it has not raised its financial outlook since January, while Boeing just said it is up to governments to decide how to spend money earmarked for defense.

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 11, 2022 at 9:57am

How a Far-Right Battalion Became a Part of Ukraine’s National Guard - VICE

https://www.vice.com/en/article/3ab7dw/azov-battalion-ukraine-far-r...

The controversy has largely centred around Azov (battalion) – a militant ultranationalist movement with neo-Nazi roots that was officially incorporated into Ukraine’s National Guard in 2014, after playing a major role in fighting pro-Russian forces in key engagements such as the Battle for Mariupol. The sprawling movement consists of an official regiment within the National Guard; its own fringe political party, National Corps; and a paramilitary group, known as National Militia, which “patrols” Ukrainian streets enforcing its own brand of justice. Members of the group have been linked to a series of violent attacks on minorities in recent years.

The movement’s extremist ideology has never been much of a secret. Its fighters have been photographed covered with far-right tattoos and insignia, while the regiment is identifiable by the Nazi Wolfsangel logo on their uniforms (the group has denied the symbol carries a Nazi connotation). And the movement is driven by figures with deep roots in Ukraine’s extreme-right scene.

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 14, 2022 at 7:22am

Ukraine says it struck Russia’s top warship in Black Sea in missile attack

Ukraine suggested that Neptune missiles sank the Moskva. Russia said only that the ship suffered significant damage from a fire.

By Andrew Jeong and Reis Thebault

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/14/ukraine-russian-mis...

Conflicting assertions about what happened to a key Russian warship were swirling early Thursday, with some Ukrainians claiming that a missile attack sank the ship and the Kremlin saying only that it suffered significant damage from a fire.
But whatever happened to the Russian navy missile cruiser Moskva — the flagship of its Black Sea Fleet — the episode serves as a significant morale boost for beleaguered Ukrainian forces and a major blow to Russia, military experts said.
Late Wednesday, Odessa state regional administrator Maxim Marchenko said a Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship cruise missile had struck the Moskva, causing serious damage. Hours later, the Russian Defense Ministry acknowledged that a key ship in its Black Sea fleet had sustained significant damage but did not address the Ukrainian claims.

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 19, 2022 at 10:00am

Should India insist on large warships after sinking of Russia’s Moskva?

Moskva rests at the bottom of the Black Sea and its loss could animate India’s maritime debate involving large naval ships. But the warning sign that must hang over it, is that its relevance to the Indian context can be different.

https://theprint.in/opinion/should-india-insist-on-large-warships-a...

The loss of a key surface naval asset to cruise missiles provides fodder to buttress some arguments in an ongoing global debate within maritime powers. The debate is an offshoot of a larger debate on the survivability of large platforms like aircraft carriers due to their vulnerability to precision-guided munitions like cruise missiles. It is a debate that is particularly relevant to India and one that continues to animate the Indian Navy’s insistence on the continued relevance of the aircraft carrier.

Technological advancements in surveillance capabilities that are networked with missiles based on air, land, and sea platforms have certainly increased the vulnerability of surface naval assets. Accuracy is significantly improved by using a combination of Global Positioning Signals (GPS), laser guidance and inertial navigation systems. Simultaneously, the development of countermeasures also reduces the vulnerability factor. It is a cat-and-mouse game in technology development that mostly tends to favour the attacker over the defender. The obvious route for the attacker is to overwhelm the defender’s ability by firing a large number of missiles simultaneously on the same target. Also, the pace of development and cost of missiles that can penetrate the defender’s missile shield is quicker and cheaper than developing and fielding missile defences.

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