Ukraine Resists Russia Alone: A Tale Of The West's Broken Promises

Ukraine is under a massive Russian assault. Kiev is under siege. Russian President Vladimir Putin's main objective is to keep Ukraine permanently out of NATO, the western nations' military alliance. Putin says the West has broken its promise to not expand NATO after the end of the Cold War. Ukraine is complaining that the West has left Ukraine at the mercy of Russia's powerful military after it agreed to give up its nuclear weapons under firm security assurances contained in the Budapest Memorandum. 

NATO Expansion. Source: BBC

Ukraine Gave Up Nukes:

When Ukraine became independent in the early 1990s,  it was the third-largest nuclear power in the world with thousands of nuclear arms. In the years that followed, Ukraine made the decision to denuclearize completely based on security guarantee from the U.S., the U.K. and Russia, known as the Budapest Memorandum.  Ukrainian analyst Mariana Budjeryn explained in an interview with NPR's Mary Louise Kelly as follows: 

"It is clear that Ukrainians knew they weren't getting the exactly - sort of these legally binding, really robust security guarantees they sought. But they were told at the time that the United States and Western powers - so certainly, at least, the United States and Great Britain, they take their political commitments really seriously. This is a document signed at the highest level by the heads of state".

NATO Expanded: 
In a meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on February 9, 1990, the US Secretary of State James Baker gave “not one inch eastward” assurance about NATO expansion, according to declassified U.S., Soviet, German, British and French documents posted by the National Security Archive at George Washington University. 
The US and Western European nations have added 14 former East Bloc nations and former Soviet Republics as NATO members in spite of repeated protests by the Russians.  Putin's anger boiled over when the US supported a coup in 2014 that removed pro-Russia President Viktor Yanukovych from power in Ukraine. In a leaked taped conversation, US assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland can be heard discussing with the US Ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt, the plans to replace Mr. Yanukovych. 
Broken Promises:
Russia and Ukraine are both nursing grievances against the West. Russians feel aggrieved because the West has continued the NATO expansion to include several countries on its border where NATO has based US forces. Russians see these forces as a serious threat to its national security. Ukrainians resent the fact that they were persuaded by the West to give up thousands of nuclear weapons in the 1990s which could have prevented the Russian invasion of their country. The bottom line is that the Ukrainians are now facing the might of the powerful Russian military alone. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a speech that Ukraine has been “left alone” to defend against the Russian invasion. “Today, I asked the twenty-seven leaders of Europe whether Ukraine will be in NATO. I asked directly. Everyone is afraid. They do not answer", he added. 
Lesson For Pakistan: 
Commenting on Ukraine, Russian analyst  Alexey Kupriyanov told Indian journalist Nirupama Subramanian: "For us, Ukraine is the same as Pakistan for India". What he failed to mention is that Pakistan has developed and retains its nuclear arsenal while Ukraine gave up its nukes in the 1990s after the fall of the Soviet Union. Many Ukrainians now regret this decision. Ukrainians know that no country with nuclear weapons has ever been physically invaded by a foreign military. They now understand the proven effectiveness of nuclear deterrence.  They realize that all the talk about "rules-based order" is just empty rhetoric. The reality is the Law of the Jungle where the strong prey on the weak. The US military invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq have shown that Washington is just as guilty of violating the "rules-based order" as Moscow. 

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Comment by Riaz Haq on July 18, 2022 at 4:05pm

A divided Ukraine could see two radically different states emerge\

https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/research/perspective/divided-ukraine-c...

It is increasingly difficult to predict what the future holds for Ukraine. One scenario sees the country becoming divided along roughly ethnic lines, with an ethnic Ukrainian western state and a more Russia-oriented eastern state comprising today’s southern and eastern Ukraine. So what would the economies of these potential new states look like?

The most obvious question is where the borders between the two new states state would be drawn. For simplicity, the subsequent analysis is based on the assumption that a future “East Ukraine” would comprise those regions (oblasts) where recently deposed leader Viktor Yanukovych received over half of the vote during the 2010 Presidential election. “West Ukraine” would include the other 17 of the total 27 oblasts.

This is, of course, an extremely crude assumption – it is certainly not a forecast – but it does allow us to imagine how Ukraine’s current economic geography might shape the future of the two hypothetical states.

Town and country
In the event of a split, Ukraine’s 45m inhabitants would be split fairly evenly between the two halves. West Ukraine would be relatively rural, with only 14.4m of its 24m inhabitants (57%) classed as urban dwellers. By contrast, East Ukraine would be a less populous but more urbanised state, with 79% living in urban areas.

West would be poorer than East. The current unweighted average monthly income of western Ukrainian regions is US$291, compared to US$320 in the east. These averages conceal significant regional variation, with Kiev and its surrounding region the only areas in the West with average incomes greater than the current Ukrainian average.

In East Ukraine, the average income is almost uniformly higher than in the West. Only Kherson, a sparsely populated region just north of Crimea, is poorer than the West Ukrainian average. The unemployment rate is also higher in West Ukraine (8.5%) than in the East (6.8%).

Farms and factories
The economic structures of the two states could hardly be any more different. In West Ukraine, the economy is dominated by agrarian production and the huge service sector centred on the capital city of Kiev. Ukraine is currently the world’s largest producer of sunflower oil, and a major exporter of other agricultural products, such as wheat, grain and sugar. Much of this production takes place in the West.

Many of the country’s largest services – phone operator Kyivstar, say, or aerospace design companies – and energy companies such as Naftogaz Ukrainy or EnergoRynok are concentrated in Kiev. Western Ukraine accounted for just over 42% of total exports in 2013, with over half these exports registered to companies in Kiev alone.

However, given their links with industrial production in Eastern Ukraine, it is unlikely that these companies would continue to generate current levels of revenue in the event of any future split. What would happen, for example, to Kiev-based design bureaus working for Kharkiv-based aerospace firms?

Ukraine’s industry centres on the East. Nearly all steel production and most arms manufacturing takes place in the region, and the country is currently one of the world’s leading exporters in both sectors. Other higher value-added sectors, including the auto and aerospace industries, are also predominantly located in the East, although the competitiveness of enterprises in this region is patchy.

But cars don’t build themselves, and all these energy-intensive factories use up a lot of power. It is likely that East Ukraine would continue to import large quantities of natural gas from Russia. West Ukraine’s energy demands would be much lower.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 18, 2022 at 4:05pm

A divided Ukraine could see two radically different states emerge\

https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/research/perspective/divided-ukraine-c...

The wildcards
Two other issues might define the respective economic futures of a divided nation: the future of Ukraine’s large stock of public debt; and the potential transformative impact of shale gas.

The first key issue is how the large stock of existing Ukrainian public debt would be divided up. Ukraine currently has a public debt-to-GDP ratio of around 40%. That’s a lower share than many advanced economies, like the US and the UK, but the fact that Ukraine has been unable to balance its budget for a number of years has caused its debt burden to grow rapidly.

Assuming that this stock of debt would be split evenly between the two states, it is clear that the debt-to-GDP ratio would increase even more in the poorer, more agrarian West, especially if it were unable to balance government expenditure and income. It is likely that West Ukraine would require significant external support to manage any future debt obligations. While the East would also inherit a relatively high debt burden, it would, by virtue of its greater export and productive potential, be better equipped to manage this debt.

The second area of uncertainty relates to Ukraine’s two large deposits of shale gas - one in the western Lublin basin, and the other in the eastern Dnieper-Donetsk basin.

Large scale shale gas extraction has the potential to boost the fortunes of both states although at this stage the prospects for both deposits are uncertain. However, Royal Dutch Shell’s decision last year to invest in a US$10 billion project in the eastern Yuzivska field indicates that the prospects in East Ukraine currently look brighter.

Differing futures
Western Ukraine’s economic powerhouse, the city of Kiev, would likely experience significant disruption in the event of a division. West Ukraine would require enormous levels of external assistance, both to manage its large public debt burden, and to generate the type of economic restructuring that would be required to increase income levels across the country. Without restructuring, West Ukraine would be one of the poorest countries in Europe. The financial assistance and open market for exports provided by the EU would be crucial to the economic future of the country.

East Ukraine, on the other hand, has the potential for a brighter future. It would inherit the richer, more urbanised and on the whole more productive sections of the Ukrainian economy. It is also further along in developing its shale gas resources. Consequently, East Ukraine would be more viable as an independent state and would possess the capabilities to compete in some areas of the global economy. In an alternative scenario, East Ukraine would also represent a significant and relatively modern addition to an enlarged Russian economy.

Dr Richard Connolly is Lecturer in Political Economy at the University Birmingham's Centre for Russian and East European Studies. This article was originally published on The Conversation.

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 13, 2022 at 4:27pm

Ben Norton @BenjaminNorton The US military launched at least 251 foreign interventions from 1991 to 2022. This is according to a report from the US government's own Congressional Research Service. I went through the data and created a map showing just how vast the meddling is: https://multipolarista.com/2022/09/13/us-251-military-interventions... https://twitter.com/BenjaminNorton/status/1569800676678696960?s=20&...

Comment by Riaz Haq on December 26, 2022 at 7:24am

North Korea, Iran, Pakistan: Secret arms suppliers keep war in Ukraine going

Russia and Ukraine are seeking to replenish their stocks by any means, including deals shrouded in secrecy.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2022/09/07/north-ko...

This is an unexpected consequence of the so-called high-intensity war that Russia and Ukraine have been engaged in since February 24, when Vladimir Putin launched his "special military operation." Both sides are engaged in attrition warfare, which Europe has not seen since World War II, and are now short on some equipment. According to the Western military and intelligence services, they are no longer hesitating to call upon countries such as North Korea, Iran and Pakistan to replenish their armories.

According to information declassified by Washington and revealed on Tuesday, September 6 by the New York Times, Russia is buying millions of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea to supply its troops in Ukraine. While no evidence or details were given regarding the materials supplied, Pyongyang is capable of manufacturing 152mm shells, one of the calibers used by Russian forces, as well as projectiles for TOS-1 multiple rocket launchers, which have been reported on the Ukrainian front.

In mid-July, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan also said that Washington had information that Tehran "is preparing to provide Russia with up to several hundred [drones] on an expedited timeline." "Russian transport aircraft loaded the [drones] at an airfield in Iran and subsequently flew from Iran to Russia over several days in August," confirmed Pentagon spokesman Brigadier General Pat Ryder on August 30.

According to military experts, the devices sent by Tehran could be ground attack drones, in particular the Shahed-129, a machine that can fly for up to 24 hours at a time and is considered to be a competitor to the American Predator. They could also include the Mohajer-6, a smaller drone capable of carrying up to four munitions. According to the US Department of Defense, these drones have probably not yet been sent to the front lines and could have "numerous failures," which the Russians would try to resolve. In fact, no images have yet surfaced showing these devices in action over Ukrainian soil.

Comment by Riaz Haq on January 1, 2023 at 8:21am

Jeffrey Sachs: “Dangerous” U.S. Policy & “West’s False Narrative” Stoking Tensions with Russia, China

https://www.democracynow.org/2022/8/30/wests_false_narrative_china_...


We discuss Western hegemony and U.S. policy in Russia, Ukraine and China with Columbia University economist Jeffrey Sachs, whose new article is headlined “The West’s False Narrative About Russia and China.” Sachs says the bipartisan U.S. approach to foreign policy is “unaccountably dangerous and wrongheaded,” and warns the U.S. is creating “a recipe for yet another war” in East Asia.

https://www.jeffsachs.org/newspaper-articles/h29g9k7l7fymxp39yhzwxc...

AMY GOODMAN: What is the story that people in the West and around the world should understand about what’s happening right now with these conflicts, with Russia, with Russia and Ukraine, and with China?

JEFFREY SACHS: The main point, Amy, is that we are not using diplomacy; we are using weaponry. This sale now announced to Taiwan that you’ve been discussing this morning is just another case in point. This does not make Taiwan safer. This does not make the world safer. It certainly doesn’t make the United States safer.

This goes back a long way. I think it’s useful to start 30 years ago. The Soviet Union ended, and some American leaders got it into their head that there was now what they called the unipolar world, that the U.S. was the sole superpower, and we could run the show. The results have been disastrous. We have had now three decades of militarization of American foreign policy. A new database that Tufts is maintaining has just shown that there have been more than 100 military interventions by the United States since 1991. It’s really unbelievable.

And I have seen, in my own experience over the last 30 years working extensively in Russia, in Central Europe, in China and in other parts of the world, how the U.S. approach is a military-first, and often a military-only, approach. We arm who we want. We call for NATO enlargement, no matter what other countries say may be harmful to their security interests. We brush aside anyone else’s security interests. And when they complain, we ship more armaments to our allies in that region. We go to war when we want, where we want, whether it was Afghanistan or Iraq or the covert war against Assad in Syria, which is even today not properly understood by the American people, or the war in Libya. And we say, “We’re peace-loving. What’s wrong with Russia and China? They are so warlike. They’re out to undermine the world.” And we end up in terrible confrontations.

The war in Ukraine — just to finish the introductory view — could have been avoided and should have been avoided through diplomacy. What President Putin of Russia was saying for years was “Do not expand NATO into the Black Sea, not to Ukraine, much less to Georgia,” which if people look on the map, straight across to the eastern edge of the Black Sea. Russia said, “This will surround us. This will jeopardize our security. Let us have diplomacy.” The United States rejected all diplomacy. I tried to contact the White House at the end of 2021 — in fact, I did contact the White House and said there will be war unless the U.S. enters diplomatic talks with President Putin over this question of NATO enlargement. I was told the U.S. will never do that. That is off the table. And it was off the table. Now we have a war that’s extraordinarily dangerous.

And we are taking exactly the same tactics in East Asia that led to the war in Ukraine. We’re organizing alliances, building up weaponry, trash-talking China, having Speaker Pelosi fly to Taiwan, when the Chinese government said, “Please, lower the temperature, lower the tensions.” We say, “No, we do what we want,” and now send more arms. This is a recipe for yet another war. And to my mind, it’s terrifying.

Comment by Riaz Haq on January 1, 2023 at 6:19pm

Ukraine Weapons Tracker
UAWeapons
#Ukraine: A new type of Pakistani artillery ammunition was spotted with the Ukrainian army - this time M4A2 propellant charges, likely delivered along with M107 155mm projectiles.

It is believed that a Western backer of Ukraine purchased quantities of Pakistani ammo in 2022.

Comment by Riaz Haq on January 1, 2023 at 6:22pm

#Pakistani #military officials in #Ukraine appear to be observing #Russia-Ukraine war for lessons to prepare to defend against potential aggression from #India. #Indian military also uses #Russian weapons and its #war doctrine is modeled after Russia's. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/12/world/europe/russia-ukraine-missiles.html

https://twitter.com/haqsmusings/status/1602319635293954049?s=20&...

----------------------

Pakistan Is Supplying Weapons To Ukraine With The Help Of British Air Force, New Reports Suggest
EUROPE
By
Ashish Dangwal
October 7, 2022

https://eurasiantimes.com/pakistan-is-supplying-weapons-to-ukraine-with-the-help-of-british/#:~:text=In%20its%20war%20against%20Russi....

In its war against Russia, Ukraine has predominantly received large amounts of ammunition and combat systems from the US and its NATO allies. However, Pakistan, surprisingly, has also become a supplier of ammunition to Kyiv.


Russia and Ukraine are using massive amounts of artillery ammunition in the conflict, underscoring the continuous demand for such weapons. As a result, both countries are looking for ways to replenish their ammo supplies.

The significance of artillery rounds was underscored in June by Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy chief of the military intelligence of Ukraine, who said, “This is an artillery war that we are losing, [as] Ukraine has one artillery piece to 10-15 Russian artillery pieces and we have almost used up all of our ammunition.”

Only a few months into the conflict, Ukraine had depleted its supplies of Soviet-era artillery and was largely reliant on the ammunition provided by its allies. This was made clear by Skibitsky’s earlier statement that Ukraine is now almost entirely dependent on western armaments to keep Russia at bay.

He also stated that Kyiv is utilizing 5,000 to 6,000 artillery rounds a day. Even though the United States and its allies in Europe were already shipping shells to Ukraine, they also noticed that their own supplies were running out at a worrying rate.

Since August 6, 2022, multiple flight-tracking websites have revealed that the UK’s Royal Air Force has been flying frequent sorties of C-17 Globemaster heavy lift aircraft from Romania to the Nur Khan airbase in Chaklala, Rawalpindi.

This incident occurred a few days after Britain declared it would provide Ukraine with more than 50,000 artillery shells resembling those used by the Soviet Union.

General Qamar Javed Bajwa, the chief of the Pakistani Army, also recently traveled to the UK as part of his official foreign visit, although the nation’s economic crisis is getting worse.

The C-17 Pakistan-Romania airlift mission accomplished a total of 12 sorties over 15 days. According to the experts, this implies that the United Kingdom was delivering military supplies to the Ukrainians.

According to reports, the aircraft was transporting 122mm HOW HE-D30 artillery munitions made by Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF). In August, a video that went viral on social media showed the unpacking of POF 122-mm ammunition.

They can be recognized based on several factors, such as the company’s regular usage of British-style steel boxes and the LIU-4 type fuzes that are unique to POF’s Soviet-style 122mm artillery.

Comment by Riaz Haq on February 24, 2023 at 6:47pm

Elon Musk: No US official has "promoted the Ukraine conflict" as much as Ms. (Victoria) Nuland.


"No one wants the conflict in Ukraine to escalate as much as Ms. Nuland," Musk wrote on his personal Twitter.


MR. IGNATIUS: Fascinating. I want to ask you a personal question. You have been in the news or at least the Twittersphere in the last 24 hours. Elon Musk, the owner of Twitter, tweeted yesterday in response to some discussions about you, and I'm quoting here, "Nobody is pushing this war more than Nuland." And I'd like to ask your reaction.

MS. NULAND: Well, I would start with a basic fact here, which I'm confident is well known, which is if this war is to end, it could end tomorrow if Vladimir Putin chose to end it and to withdraw his troops. So this is not about us. This is about choices that Vladimir Putin has made to try to bite off pieces of his neighbor, and if we allow this as the United States, if we don't support the victim in this aggression, then this aggression will be replicated all over the planet in the years to come. And, you know, particularly folks with young children ought to be thinking about the future that they want to live in.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live/2023/02/23/tran...

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 9, 2023 at 6:47pm

#Russian #missiles, including #hypersonic missiles, and drones engulf #Ukraine, killing at least six people and knocking out power to hundreds of thousands in one of the biggest attacks on the besieged country this year.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2023/03/09/ukraine-russia...

Slovakia on Thursday joined Poland in urging their allies to provide fighter jets to Kyiv as a wave of deadly "retaliation" strikes rocked Ukraine.

"I think it's time to make a decision," Slovak Defense Minister Jaroslav Nad said on Facebook. "People in Ukraine are dying, we can really help them. ... This is inhumane and irresponsible."

A day earlier, Polish President Andrzej Duda told CNN that Poland was ready to provide Ukraine with the MiG-29 fighters as part of a package involving other Western allies.

"The training of Ukrainian pilots is important and much needed,” Duda said, adding that long-range artillery also is needed "to push the enemy back and avoid direct clashes. Because the Russians are trying to crush Ukraine, crush it with the weight of their armed forces, their size and their equipment."

The Biden administration, and NATO, thus far have declined Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's requests for aircraft.

LAWMAKER DECLINES INVITE TO KYIV:House Speaker Kevin McCarthy declines President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's invite to visit Ukraine

Developments:

►The Biden administration unveiled it's 2024 budget proposal, which calls for almost $7 billion in additional spending for Ukraine and other allies to combat "Russian aggression." The U.S. has spent more than $75 billion on Ukraine since the war began a year ago.

►An air raid warning sounded Thursday on Moscow radio stations and TV channels but was a false alarm, a result of server hacking, state-run Tass reported.

►52% of Ukrainians don't want any Russian taught in schools, up from 8% in a 2019 survey, according to a new poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. Despite the war, 42% of the population still favors some Russian being taught – although only 6% want it taught more than other foreign languages.

►A group of 42 retired Canadian Olympians are urging their country’s Olympic leaders to take a stand against Russians participating in next year’s Paris Games.

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 9, 2023 at 6:47pm

#Russian #missiles, including #hypersonic missiles, and drones engulf #Ukraine, killing at least six people and knocking out power to hundreds of thousands in one of the biggest attacks on the besieged country this year.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2023/03/09/ukraine-russia...

Slovakia on Thursday joined Poland in urging their allies to provide fighter jets to Kyiv as a wave of deadly "retaliation" strikes rocked Ukraine.

"I think it's time to make a decision," Slovak Defense Minister Jaroslav Nad said on Facebook. "People in Ukraine are dying, we can really help them. ... This is inhumane and irresponsible."

A day earlier, Polish President Andrzej Duda told CNN that Poland was ready to provide Ukraine with the MiG-29 fighters as part of a package involving other Western allies.

"The training of Ukrainian pilots is important and much needed,” Duda said, adding that long-range artillery also is needed "to push the enemy back and avoid direct clashes. Because the Russians are trying to crush Ukraine, crush it with the weight of their armed forces, their size and their equipment."

The Biden administration, and NATO, thus far have declined Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's requests for aircraft.

LAWMAKER DECLINES INVITE TO KYIV:House Speaker Kevin McCarthy declines President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's invite to visit Ukraine

Developments:

►The Biden administration unveiled it's 2024 budget proposal, which calls for almost $7 billion in additional spending for Ukraine and other allies to combat "Russian aggression." The U.S. has spent more than $75 billion on Ukraine since the war began a year ago.

►An air raid warning sounded Thursday on Moscow radio stations and TV channels but was a false alarm, a result of server hacking, state-run Tass reported.

►52% of Ukrainians don't want any Russian taught in schools, up from 8% in a 2019 survey, according to a new poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. Despite the war, 42% of the population still favors some Russian being taught – although only 6% want it taught more than other foreign languages.

►A group of 42 retired Canadian Olympians are urging their country’s Olympic leaders to take a stand against Russians participating in next year’s Paris Games.

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