Comment by Riaz Haq on May 1, 2023 at 8:53am

The wheat production (in Pakistan) this year topped 27.5 million metric tons, the highest in the last 10 years, despite the challenges posed by heavy rains and floods last year, the Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement on Sunday.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2414418/pm-hails-bumper-wheat-crop

Chairing a review meeting on the wheat situation, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif directed the relevant federal government institutions as well as the provinces to increase their procurement quotas in the wake of a bumper crop.

According to the Prime Minister’s Office, the meeting received a briefing on the wheat production, current reserves, carry-forward reserves, procurement targets, and progress of federal and provincial departments.

Shehbaz applauded the record wheat production, saying that this achievement made possible by the grace of Allah, quality seeds, uninterrupted supply of fertiliser, and the timely decisions of the government and its Farmers Package.

“The bumper crop of wheat is a testament to the government’s timely decisions and excellent governance,” he said. “Looking forward, the government is preparing a strategy to increase wheat production even further next year,” he added.

“With the government’s continued efforts and the dedication of farmers, Pakistan aims to maintain its position as a leading wheat producer,” he said, congratulating the farmers for their hard work and dedication to achieve the milestone despite financial difficulties.

He noted that Pakistan became a wheat importing country due to the mismanagement of the previous Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government. The PTI government, he added, made farmers to stand in long queues for fertilisers.

He urged the federal and provincial institutions to increase procurement targets to enable uninterrupted supply of wheat throughout the year. He also instructed that the resources required to obtain the specified quantity of wheat should be provided through banks.

He congratulated Food Security Minister Tariq Bashir Cheema and the officials concerned, and directed all institutions to increase their targets. The meeting was also attended by the caretaker Punjab minister for industries, and other senior officials.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 18, 2023 at 7:27am

A brewing up controversy over GDP growth figures. The revised estimates suggests that the last fiscal year growth went up to around 6.5 percent against provisional figure of 5.97 percent @ NAC meeting postponed

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1071476-nac-meeting-postponed


At the last moment, a National Accounts Committee (NAC) meeting scheduled for Thursday (today) has been postponed apparently on the pretext that some census data will be incorporated into it for calculating the provisional GDP growth figure and per capita income.

However, top sources confided to The News on Wednesday that efforts were still under way to turn the possible negative growth figures into positive despite witnessing a steep fall in the figure of Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) in March 2023 whereby it contacted by 25 per cent. In July-March period of the current fiscal, the LSM dropped by 8.1 per cent. There are some more worrying developments as the initial estimates suggest that the finalized figure of GDP growth for the last financial year went up from the provisional figure of 5.97 per cent to finalized figure of 6.5 per cent for 2021-22 so the revised GDP growth figure would also result in showing more declining figure of provisional growth in the outgoing financial year 2022-23. Where there was a higher base, it would negatively affect the provisional growth prospects for the outgoing financial year, said the sources.

“The latest estimates suggest that the provisional GDP growth is negative so far in the range of -0.8 per cent to -1 per cent for the current fiscal year 2022-23,” said the sources and added that it could not be yet ascertained how the provisional GDP growth figures would be turned into positive one. Now the NAC may be rescheduled for Friday (tomorrow), but the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has not yet issued an official notification on the NAC meeting. However, one top official told The News that on the request of the PBS, the NAC meeting was rescheduled for Friday because the latest census data might be incorporated for calculating the provisional GDP growth figures and the per capita income in both rupee and dollar terms.

Pakistan envisaged GDP growth target of 5 per cent for the current financial year 2022-23 on the eve of the budget with the help of agriculture growth target of 3.9 per cent, manufacturing 7.1 per cent and services sector 5.1 per cent. The IMF and the World Bank had projected a downward revision of GDP growth in the range of 0.5 per cent for the current fiscal year. The Ministry of Finance had projected growth rate of 0.8 per cent in its revised estimates for the current financial year. The agriculture sector growth may also remain negative and it will solely depend upon the factor of wheat production. Among the services sector, the credit to private sector witnessed new low as the private sector credit from banks stood at just Rs 72 billion so far in the current fiscal year against Rs 800 billion in the same period of the last financial year.

The Wholesale and Retail trade might also witness declining trends, keeping in view imports compression. On eve of the budget for 2022-23, the government had envisaged GDP growth rate at 5 per cent and inflation at 11.5 per cent. Now the average CPI based inflation is expected to hover around 29-30 per cent on average for the current fiscal year.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 24, 2023 at 6:54pm

Amid Food Insecurity, Pakistan Reports Record-Breaking Wheat Harvest

https://www.rferl.org/a/pakistan-food-insecurity-record-breaking-wh...

By RFE/RL
AP


With ongoing disruption to global supplies caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, there is some good news on commodities markets: Pakistan, one of the world's top 10 wheat-producing countries, has reported a record-breaking harvest.

Pakistan's highest wheat production in a decade is a welcome respite for its cash-strapped government struggling through economic, political, and food insecurity.


Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif took to social media on April 30 to announce that the country had attained a “record bumper” harvest of wheat totaling 27.5 million metric tons.

The announcement came as Pakistan has been dealing with record inflation and struggling to avoid a default on its debt as it recovers from last summer's floods, which killed 1,379 people and caused $30 billion in damages.

On global markets, the prices of grains, vegetable oil, dairy, and other agricultural commodities have fallen steadily from record highs. But often the relief hasn’t trickled down to the real world of shopkeepers, street vendors, and families trying to make ends meet.

Food prices were already running high when Russia invaded Ukraine in February last year, disrupting trade in grain and fertilizer and sending prices up even more. But on a global scale, that price shock ended long ago.

According to the UN, food prices have decreased for a full year straight due to bumper crops in countries like Brazil and Russia, and a fragile wartime arrangement to allow grain supplies out of the Black Sea.

Food markets are so interconnected that “wherever you are in the world, you feel the effect if global prices go up," said Ian Mitchell, an economist and London-based co-director of the Europe program at the Center for Global Development.

Pakistani farmers sort wheat grains after they have been threshed during the harvest season at a village on the outskirts of Peshawar.

The Wilson Center, a nonpartisan research institute, reported on March 6 that 77 million Pakistanis are going hungry and 45 million are malnourished.

Though Pakistan is ranked among the top 10 wheat-producing countries, inflation has destroyed the purchasing power of the rupee, resulting in record prices for vegetables, beans, rice, and wheat.

The Central Bank of Pakistan raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 21 percent on April 4, pushing borrowing costs to their highest level since records began in 1992. Consumer price inflation in Pakistan accelerated to a record 35.37 percent in March from a year earlier, eclipsing February's 31.5 percent, the statistics bureau said on April 1.

According to the Global Hunger Index 2021, Pakistan ranks 92nd out of 107 countries, indicating a "serious" level of hunger. The government of Pakistan has launched several initiatives to address food insecurity; however, it remains a significant challenge.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 28, 2023 at 10:14am

4 reasons India won’t overtake China as the world’s agricultural commodity hub any time soon | South China Morning Post


https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3221894/four-reasons-i...


At the lowest income levels, food is consumed in its most basic form as whole grain or in simple porridges. As incomes rise, that grain is increasingly consumed indirectly – it could be baked into bread or fed to animals for meat production. Each subsequent stage requires further processing, as well as additional ingredients such as oil and sugar to complete formulations.

exponential increases in higher-value food consumption take hold as incomes grow from US$1,000 and US$10,000 before plateauing above US$20,000. A large, young and rapidly growing population base with incomes rising from modest to median levels makes an ideal environment for agricultural commodity demand growth.

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India recently overtook China as the world’s most populous country, according to UN projections. Around one in three people on the planet now lives within the borders of these two nations.
The media frenzy surrounding the revelation centred on the economic implications of India’s new status, much to the chagrin of the Chinese authorities. The question now arises as to what this means for the global agricultural market.
Since the dawn of the Malthusian spectre, population growth has been associated with a reduction in living standards. As the theory goes, populations grow faster than the resources required to feed them.
China has been able to defy that thesis in the past two decades, combining a growing population with consistent income growth. It has become the largest buyer of key agricultural commodities to ensure its inhabitants enjoy a diversified diet.

China is now a top importer of the most widely traded crops globally: soybeans, vegetable oil, corn and sugar. With that, Beijing wields enormous influence in this space. Chinese demand has caused explosive growth in South American soybean production, leading Brazil to pass the United States as the world’s leading producer of soybeans and prompting Argentina to become the top exporter of soybean meal.

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 28, 2023 at 10:44am

Sugar production/consumption in Pakistan

Due to slight increases in area and sugarcane yields, sugar production in 2022/23 is forecast to reach 7.2 million metric tons (MMT), a marginal increase over the good 2021/22 crop. Sugar consumption for 2022/23 is forecast at 6.1 MMT (approx 26 Kg per person)  , which would be a 3.3 percent increase, reflecting population growth and demand from the expanding food processing sector. The production estimate for 2021/22 is increased reflecting the excellent crop last year. As a result, ending stocks are higher, leading to a larger exportable surplus entering 2022/23. Due to the large stocks, and competitive prices, sugar exports are forecast to reach one million tons in 2022/23

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFil...

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Sugar production/consumption in India

Assuming normal rainfall and favorable weather conditions, India’s centrifugal sugar production in marketing year (MY) 2021/22 (October-September) is forecast to grow three percent to 34.7 million metric tons (MMT) (equivalent to 31.8 MMT of crystal white sugar) on a sugarcane production forecast of 389 MMT. Uttar Pradesh will continue to be the largest sugar producing state, followed by Maharashtra and Karnataka. India will retain its existing export policy that will enable subsidized exports at six MMT. Consumption is forecast to rise two percent to 28.5 MMT (approx 20 Kg per person), as the economy recovers from the pandemic. Closing stocks are estimated at 16.5 MMT and expected to further decline as India diverts more sugar toward ethanol production to meet its domestic blending mandate.

https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/india-sugar-annual-5#:~:text=Sugar%20....

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 28, 2023 at 11:00am

As of March 2023, Pakistani authorities still ban genetically engineered (GE) oilseed imports. While they have made some progress in developing a system to allow for GE oilseed imports, uncertainty regarding when that system will be operative clouds the outlook for oilseed imports. Similar uncertainty surrounds domestic meal and oil production forecasts. With expectations for better cottonseed production, total oilseed production in 2023/24 is projected to increase to 2.95 million tons, a 24 percent above than 2022/23. In line with population growth, edible oil demand is forecast to grow about 5 percent, and palm oil imports are forecast to grow accordingly, reaching 3.6 million tons (15 Kg per person) in 2023/24.

https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/pakistan-oilseeds-and-products-annual-7

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India’s oilseeds production in marketing year (MY) 2023/2024 (October-September) is forecast to remain flat at 41.5 million metric tons (MMT), mostly unchanged from MY 2022/2023. Unseasonably heavy spring precipitation and a predicted El Niño weather pattern in the wake of severe April-June heatwaves will expose summer oilseed crops to greater incidences of plant stresses and thus impact yields. Oil meal production will remain steady at 20 MMT while exports will fall to 1.9 MMT, following an exceptional increase in exports in the current MY as southeast Asian demand has favored competitively priced Indian oil meals against other origins. India will remain among the largest consumers of edible oils and is forecast to import 14.5 MMT (10 Kg per person) of various oil commodities in the outyear. Global decline in oilseed prices and relatively low import duties have stabilized domestic edible oil prices, leading to record ending stocks in the current year.

https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/india-oilseeds-and-products-annual-7

Comment by Riaz Haq on May 29, 2023 at 10:05pm

Feature: Chinese canola crops transform Pakistan's cooking oil industry, boosts local economy-Xinhua


https://english.news.cn/asiapacific/20230529/a7d93b309d814273849cb8...

Pakistan's annual consumption of cooking oil is around 5 million tons, but due to the low economic potential of oilseeds in the local market, they are not preferred by the farmers. The country has to import about 89 percent of its oil to meet the demand, spending 3.6 billion dollars annually.

Dealers associated with oilseed distribution have said that the newly introduced variety has a high-profit margin for the farmers and, as such, it has become famous among local farmers just two years after its introduction in Pakistan.

Muhammad Rizwan, a seed distributor in Gujranwala, told Xinhua that the Chinese canola seed is resistant to diseases and has a higher yield than other previously available oilseed varieties on the market.

"Other oil seeds were sold for about 5,000 to 6,000 rupees per 40 kg on the market this year, whereas the Chinese canola was sold for up to 9,500 rupees, it also had a 20 percent to 30 percent higher yield than the other varieties," Rizwan explained.

"The seed is now a hot cake in the eyes of farmers in the Gujranwala district so we have placed a higher order than last year to the seed company to meet the demand in the next cultivation season in November this year," he added.

Last year, 11 tons of seeds were cultivated on 20,000 acres of land across the country, while this year 100 tons are expected to be cultivated due to a higher demand for the seed.

Housewife Saima Rizwan told Xinhua that she came to know about this oil six months ago from social media and how the oil extracted from Chinese canola is beneficial for health besides being cost-effective.

"I asked my husband to buy the oil and its taste was so good that we have never bought imported oil since. We cook all local dishes in the oil, and sometimes when we invite guests, they can't tell the food is cooked in canola oil rather than the commonly used palm oil," the 32-year-old told Xinhua.

Muhammad Azim, team leader of Eyvol group in Gujranwala, said that it was a bumper yield of canola this year compared to other crops, due to which farmers were very happy.

"It is a new beginning because farmers are making a good profit as consumption of locally produced oil increases," said Azim.

"As a next step, we will focus on local production of the seeds in Pakistani nurseries with the help of our Chinese friends to make the seeds more affordable for the local farmers," he said.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 26, 2023 at 6:49pm

Pakistani Mango Crop Set To Recover After Last Year’s Heatwave | Produce Report


https://www.producereport.com/article/pakistani-mango-crop-set-reco...

Pakistan’s annual mango production averages 1.8 million metric tons, of which approximately 150,000 metric tons are exported. Given last year’s weather challenges, the export target for 2022/23 was reduced by one-sixth to 125,000 metric tons early in the season, according to Waheed Ahmed, patron in chief of the All Pakistan Fruit & Vegetable Exporters, Importers & Merchants Association.

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Pakistan witnessed an extreme heatwave during last year’s spring months that strongly affected the crop of mangos, the country’s second-largest fruit export after citrus fruits. Mango trees, which are vulnerable to temperature variations during the flowering period, suffered under the unusually high temperatures — up by 3–8 degrees Celsius from the average — causing the 2022/23 harvest to plummet by half.

In addition to thermometer readings reaching record highs, mango growers experienced severe water shortages. Although farmers actively pumped groundwater in an effort to protect the trees from heat stress, much of this was unsuitable for agricultural use because of varying salt levels, potentially complicating future plant and fruit growth.

Pakistan’s annual mango production averages 1.8 million metric tons, of which approximately 150,000 metric tons are exported. Given last year’s weather challenges, the export target for 2022/23 was reduced by one-sixth to 125,000 metric tons early in the season, according to Waheed Ahmed, patron in chief of the All Pakistan Fruit & Vegetable Exporters, Importers & Merchants Association.


While final figures for fiscal year 2022/23 (July–June) have yet to be released, the available statistics show that Pakistan’s mango production has either decreased or remained stagnant over the past decade. To boost mango yield and exports, several government departments and industry stakeholders worked together to develop the Fruits and Vegetables Export Strategy, which will be implemented between 2023 and 2027. As part of the strategy, China is highlighted as a premium market for Pakistani mangos, with greater exports to this lucrative market representing one of the key goals. A number of investments have also been proposed with the purpose of enhancing the sector’s pest control and management, farm hygiene, cold chain transportation and other attributes to more successfully meet China’s import requirements.

In response to the recent climate vagaries, industry members have recommended that the government invest in the research and development of heat-resistant cultivars, the establishment of small-scale meteorological stations providing area-specific updates, and the expansion of digital channels for agriculture, such as real-time advisory services to offer growers rapid assistance in the case of unexpected events.

This year’s moderate March and April temperatures have the sector hoping for a stronger crop in the current season, with an initial production forecast of 1.7 million metric tons having been announced.

The Pakistani mango industry is sparing no effort in promoting its fruit in China, organizing webinars with Chinese importers and distributors as well as mango festivals and other marketing events. However, exports have not yet reached the anticipated level. In 2022, Pakistan exported only 23.95 metric tons of fresh or dried mangos to China with a value of $55,605, down from 37.42 metric tons and $127,200 in 2021.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 26, 2023 at 6:55pm

Total production of kinnow in Pakistan is around 2.1 million tons, said All Pakistan Fruit and Vegetable Exporters, Importers and Merchants Association (PFVA) Patron-in-Chief Waheed Ahmed. “Export target has been set at 350,000 tons as opposed to the 300,000 tons exported in the previous season.”

“The export of kinnow is expected to fetch foreign exchange worth $210 million,” he added.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2274395/kinnow-exports-likely-to-fetch-210m

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 14, 2023 at 4:05pm

Pakistan sugar production for 2023/24 is forecast to rise 250,000 tonnes to 7.1 million due to the recovery in sugarcane area harvested from the flood-damaged crop the year before.

http://www.ukrsugar.com/en/post/pakistan-sugar-production-is-foreca...

It is reported by USDA in its May report.

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/sugar.pdf

Sugarcane production is forecast up 3 percent to 83.5 million tons due to the expected recovery in area. Favorable prices are encouraging farmers to maintain sugarcane area vis-à-vis planting other crops. Farmers’ preference toplant sugarcane is also due to the crop’s resiliency to weather hazards compared to alternative crops. Sugarcane is produced in three provinces, with Punjab accounting for 68 percent of total production, followed by Sindh with 24 percent, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) with 8 percent. The Bahawalpur division of Punjab and the Sukkur division of Sindh account for more than half of the total sugarcane area. Sugarcane is planted in two different seasons: spring planting runs from February to March and the fall season is from September to October. Punjab and Sindh farmers plant sugarcane in both seasons, while most cane in KPK is planted in spring. Yields per hectare are relatively low due to lack of high yielding varieties, water shortages, and uneven fertilizer distribution.

Pakistan has been one of the top eight sugar producers for the past 3 years and is forecast to be the seventh largest exporter in 2023/24. Sugar consumption is estimated up 150,000 tons to 6.3 million supported by population growth and higher supplies. Despite the rise in production, sugar exports are forecast down 200,000 tons to 800,000 as the government seeks to curb exports. Fearing domestic price increases, the government is expected to be reluctant to approve too many exports this year by monitoring the market situation on a fortnightly basis to decide on the timing and quantity of exports. Stocks are expected to be flat.

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