Comment by Riaz Haq on March 5, 2025 at 8:22pm

Nifty, Sensex: India middle-class jitters amid stock market rout

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz7vlezv05no

Two years ago, on his bank adviser's suggestion, Rajesh Kumar pulled out his savings - fixed deposits included - and shifted to mutual funds, stocks and bonds.

With India's stock market booming, Mr Kumar, a Bihar-based engineer, joined millions investing in publicly traded companies. Six years ago, only one in 14 Indian households channelled their savings into the stock market - now, it's one in five.

But the tide has turned.

For six months, India's markets have slid as foreign investors pulled out, valuations remained high, earnings weakened and global capital shifted to China - wiping out $900bn in investor value since their September peak. While the decline began before US President Donald Trump's tariff announcements, they have now become a bigger drag as more details emerge.

India's benchmark Nifty 50 share index, which tracks the country's top 50 publicly traded companies, is on its longest losing streak in 29 years, declining for five straight months. This is a significant slump in one of the world's fastest-growing markets. Stock brokers are reporting that their activity has dropped by a third.

"For more than six months now, my investments have been in the red. This is the worst experience in the last decade that I have been invested in stock market," Mr Kumar says.

Mr Kumar, 55, now keeps little money in the bank, having shifted most of his savings to the stock market. With his son's 1.8 million-rupee ($20,650; £16,150) private medical college fee due in July, he worries about selling investments at a loss to cover it. "Once the market recovers, I'm thinking of moving some money back to the bank," he says.

His anxieties reflect those of millions of middle-class Indians who have poured into the stock market from cities big and small - part of a financial revolution.

The go-to investment route is Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs), where funds collect fixed monthly contributions. The number of Indians investing through SIPs has soared past 100 million, nearly trebling from 34 million five years ago. Many first-time investors, lured by the promise of high returns, enter with limited risk awareness - often influenced by a wave of social media "finfluencers" on platforms like Instagram and YouTube, a mixed bag of experts and amateurs alike.

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 17, 2025 at 10:10am

Arif Habib Limited
@ArifHabibLtd
Country posted monthly Current Account surplus of USD 349mn (surplus for 3rd consecutive month) in Oct’24

The country posted a Current Account surplus of USD 349mn for the month of Oct’24 compared to a surplus of USD 86mn during Sep’24.

During 4MFY25, the country’s posted current account surplus of 218mn as compared to a deficit of USD 1,528mn during the same period last year.

https://x.com/ArifHabibLtd/status/1858389558800392463

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Pakistan posts highest-ever $1.2b current account surplus in March
On a year-on-year basis, the surplus surged 230% from $363 million recorded in March 2024.


https://tribune.com.pk/story/2540553/pakistan-posts-highest-ever-12...

Pakistan’s current account posted a record surplus of $1.2 billion in March 2025, reversing a revised deficit of $97 million from the previous month, data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) showed on Thursday.

On a year-on-year basis, the surplus surged 230% from $363 million recorded in March 2024.

According to brokerage firms Topline Securities and Arif Habib Limited, March 2025 marked the "highest-ever monthly current account surplus" in the country’s history.

The robust performance brought the cumulative current account surplus to $1.86 billion during the first nine months of FY2024–25, a sharp turnaround from a $1.65 billion deficit in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

“With oil prices down and remittances hitting record levels, Pakistan’s current account is expected to remain in surplus through June FY25, and possibly into FY26, supporting overall investor confidence,” said Khurram Schehzad, Advisor to the Finance Minister.

Exports of goods and services in March stood at $3.51 billion, up 8.7% from $3.23 billion in the same month last year. Imports rose 8% year-on-year to $5.92 billion.

Workers' remittances surged to $4.05 billion in March, marking a more than 71% increase from the previous year, a key factor in the current account turnaround.

Analysts say low economic growth, persistently high inflation, tight monetary policy, and import restrictions have all contributed to narrowing the current account deficit, alongside improving exports.

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