Comment by Riaz Haq on March 8, 2025 at 8:11am

Tougher H-1B Visa Scrutiny Anticipated as Annual Lottery Opens


https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/tougher-h-1b-visa-...

Higher fees not likely to deter entries in annual lottery starting March 7
More scrutiny expected of petitions for specialty worker visas
US businesses looking to add high-skilled foreign talent on H-1Bs face the potential for stringent scrutiny from the Trump administration if they come out on top of the annual lottery for the specialty occupation visas.

Employers can register workers starting Friday for the chance to apply for one of 85,000 new visas, which are most heavily used in the technology industry. It’s the first selection process since US Citizenship and Immigration Services hiked registration costs to $215.

But immigration attorneys don’t expect a significant slowdown in interest because of the higher cost of entry. The bigger question for many is how hard getting visa approvals will be after the lottery.

“The reality is that even small employers rely on the H-1B for their talent pipeline. I don’t think the fee increase is going to change that model,” said Isha Atassi, a partner at Fragomen, Del Rey, Bernsen & Loewy LLP. “We certainly expect higher levels of scrutiny on petitions for those that are lucky enough to be selected.”

Tougher Vetting
The H-1B program has been a subject of infighting within Trump administration circles. While White House adviser Elon Musk has defended the need for the program, figures like Steve Bannon have attacked it for undermining US workers. In the first administration, rejection rates jumped and approval of new visas slowed thanks to a deluge of requests for evidence to support information in visa petitions.

Many expect similar hurdles this time around. That’s thanks in part to new H-1B regulationsfinalized by the Biden administration last year that require a worker’s degree be directly tied to their role.

“The actual adjudication of H-1B petitions once the registrations are selected in the lottery, I think is going to go very slowly,” said Angelo Paparelli, a partner at Vialto Law (US) PLLC.

The main immigration focus in the early weeks of Trump’s second term has been detaining unauthorized immigrants and ramping up deportation rates. How USCIS handles H-1B petitions after the upcoming lottery will offer a strong indicator of its workplace enforcement agenda, attorneys said. Many are preparing now by anticipating potential information requests when they craft visa petitions.

“Immigration attorneys and clients right now are kind of on edge waiting to see how the dust is going to settle,” said Anna Gorisch, managing partner at Kendall Immigration Law PLLC.

Fee Hikes
USCIS last year finalized new fees on a slate of immigration benefits for the first time since 2016. The fee-funded agency said adjusting user fees was long overdue to help pay for the costs of adjudicating immigration benefits.

Since the online registration system for the H-1B lottery was launched in 2020, employers only had to pay $10 to register each worker. That was a negligible cost that did little to discourage the growth in registrations, Gorisch said.

“It’s a ‘why not’ at $10,” she said.

The top H-1B employer in fiscal year 2024, Amazon.com Inc., got approval for more than 3,800 new visa petitions that year. A $205 increase may appear steep, but it’s still a fraction of the costs of an H-1B worker’s salary, and even pales in comparison to recruiting costs, said Xiao Wang, CEO at Boundless Immigration.

“If a company needs the foreign talent, they’re still willing to pay,” he said.

Employers’ demand on the program would likely only change, Wang said, if the government mandated significantly higher prevailing wage levels for entry-level workers, which are determined by their role and the region where they are based. The first Trump administration attempted to raise wage rates for the visa program before it was blocked by litigation.

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 8, 2025 at 8:12am

Shashank Mattoo
@MattooShashank
Shocking arrogance on display here from US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick

- "India needs to stop listening to silly people"
- Laughs at concerns about US reliability as defence supplier
- Dismisses UK, France and Russia as Indian defence partners

https://x.com/MattooShashank/status/1898223018763338127

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 9, 2025 at 9:36am

Singapore says Asia now views U.S. as a ‘landlord seeking rent’ - The Japan Times


https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/02/17/asia-pacific/politics/...

Asian perspectives of the U.S. have shifted from a country once perceived as a force of "moral legitimacy” to something akin to "a landlord seeking rent," Singapore’s defense chief said on the sidelines of an international security meeting.
Ng Eng Hen said in a round-table discussion at the Munich Security Conference that assumptions undertaken in the years after the end of World War II have fundamentally changed.

One example is that from the time of then-U.S. President John F. Kennedy’s inaugural address more than 60 years ago, the image of the U.S. was of a country that would not allow tyranny such as colonial control to be replaced by another form of tyranny. Now "the image has changed from liberator to great disruptor to a landlord seeking rent," according to a prepared text of his remarks posted on a government website over the weekend.

The remarks came after U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration blindsided historic NATO allies with plans to directly negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the future of the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine. The fear for many officials gathered for the conference in Germany is that by dialing back support for Ukraine, Trump is inviting Putin to probe NATO’s willingness to defend the alliance’s eastern borders.

National security adviser Mike Waltz, meanwhile, said the U.S. deserves "payback" from Ukraine for its support against the Russian invasion and Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy would be "very wise" to accept a minerals deal offered by the Trump team.

Zelenskyy has rejected a U.S. draft agreement that would give Washington access to critical minerals in the war-battered nation because it didn’t offer investments and sufficient protections.

In its first month, the new Trump administration has made clear it’s willing to quickly alter defense and economic policies that have been in place for decades. It’s a shift that has drawn in attention in Asia, where the U.S. has stationed tens of thousands of troops, as nations there seek to navigate persisting tensions between the U.S. and China.

Singapore, like much of Southeast Asia, has sought a middle path in an increasingly complicated geopolitical picture, seeking to balance ties with the U.S. as a major security partner and source of investment, and China, as one of its biggest trade partners.

Under previous President Joe Biden, the U.S. worked to form a lattice of security arrangements in the region as a counter to Chinese assertiveness in places such as the South China Sea. Another persistent security concern is China’s pledge to bring Taiwan under its control someday, by force if necessary.

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 9, 2025 at 9:52am

Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting prioritizes ‘real’ independence from the US − but what does that mean and is it achievable?

https://theconversation.com/germanys-chancellor-in-waiting-prioriti...

Germany’s presumptive new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, faces challenges both at home and overseas following his conservative alliance’s election victory on Feb. 23, 2025.

A strong showing from the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) – which Merz, in line with other mainstream German parties, refuses to countenance as a coalition party as part of an unofficial “firewall” against extremism – will make forming a functioning government tricky.

But in the moments after the election results, it was the future of the European Union and its relationship with America that was his immediate focus: “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA.”

To understand why that is such a concern for Germany now and what “real independence” from Washington means, The Conversation U.S. turned to Garret Martin, an expert on U.S.-Europe relations at American University, for answers.

What prompted Merz’s ‘real independence’ line?
Presumably it was a response to a series of recent announcements and actions by the Trump administration that have shocked the German political establishment. This includes the sudden revelation that the U.S. would negotiate directly with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, but seemingly without the Europeans or Ukrainians involved. That development went down like a lead balloon in Berlin, especially considering Germany’s significant financial support of Kyiv since 2022.

Moreover, the German establishment has also frowned at a series of recent declarations by members of the Trump administration. Vice President JD Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference, in which he harshly criticized Europe for allegedly undermining freedom of expression, provoked clear pushback from German leaders. Trump, for his part, hardly endeared himself to his German allies when he denounced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a “dictator.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 16, 2025 at 10:28am

India (8.3%) is the second largest importer of arms over the last 5 years (2019-2024). Ukraine (8.8%) is first. Pakistan (4.6%) 4th, according to SIPRI.

India's arms imports mainly from Russia, France and Israel.

Ukraine's from US, Germany and Poland.

Pakistan's from China, Netherlands and Turkey


https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2025/ukraine-worlds-bigge...

https://indianexpress.com/article/trending/top-10-listing/top-10-la...

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Chinese arms made up 81 per cent of Pakistan’s weapons imports in the past five years, as Islamabad buys more advanced systems from its long-standing Asian defence partner, according to data from Swedish think tank SIPRI.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3302515/china-supp...

That was up 7 percentage points from the previous five-year period to 2019, when 74 per cent of Pakistan’s arms imports came from China, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute database shows.

The boost comes amid a huge push in China to improve self-reliance in its defence industry – from aircraft carriers to sixth-generation fighter jets – which has also seen it expand the range of weapons it can offer to its strategic partners.

--------

“The apparent willingness of China to supply or at least talk about supplying some of its more advanced weapons to Pakistan shows China’s trust in Pakistan,” said Siemon Wezeman, a senior arms transfers researcher at SIPRI.

China has been Pakistan’s primary arms supplier since the 1990s. But Pakistan’s tensions with India – especially since a series of border skirmishes broke out in 2016 – have prompted Islamabad to increase defence spending, and that has drawn it closer to Beijing.

Beijing avoids formal alliances but Wezeman said it could be seen as “Pakistan’s only real ‘ally’, the only one to depend on when dealing with India”.

At the same time, Pakistan plays a similar role for Beijing and is “the only one that at this moment could give China a secure access to a base on the Indian Ocean and near the Middle East”.

In April last year, China launched the first of eight Hangor II submarines to be delivered to Pakistan in a deal worth around US$5 billion – one of the most valuable military contracts China has signed.

According to the SIPRI database, some of Pakistan’s key orders in the past five years include the country’s first spy ship, the Rizwan, more than 600 VT-4 battle tanks, and 36 J-10CE 4.5-generation fighters.

The first delivery of multirole J-10CE fighter jets arrived in Pakistan in 2022, adding to its JF-17 fighters – a backbone model that makes up the bulk of Pakistan’s fleet.

The fourth-generation JF-17 was jointly developed by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group in a programme that dates back to 1999.

The Block III version of JF-17 – featuring an active electronically scanned array radar – was inducted by the Pakistan Air Force in 2023.

Song Zhongping, a military commentator and former PLA instructor, said China might also export its fifth-generation fighter jet, the J-35, “if Pakistan requests it”.

He said that since India was considering adding the American F-35 or Russian Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jets to its fleet, Pakistan was likely to be considering its options too.

China also delivered a range of surface-to-air missiles and defence systems to Pakistan between 2020 and 2024, according to SIPRI. They included a long-range HQ-9 system with around 70 missiles, some 200 medium-range LY-80s, and about 890 low-altitude portable FN-6 missiles.

Comment by Riaz Haq on April 2, 2025 at 8:13pm

Riaz Haq
@haqsmusings
#Trump #Tariffs: #Vietnam (46%), #Thailand (36%), #Bangladesh (37%), #India 26%, #Pakistan (29%), and #SriLanka (44%) hit with steep new duties under sweeping trade order | Business Upturn

https://x.com/haqsmusings/status/1907541298971898015

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Trump's list of countries facing reciprocal tariffs, including Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/02/trump-reciprocal-tariffs-countries-...


Vietnam (46%), Thailand (36%), Bangladesh (37%), Pakistan (29%), and Sri Lanka (44%) hit with steep new duties under sweeping trade order

Vietnam: 46%
Thailand: 36%
Bangladesh: 37%
Pakistan: 29%
Sri Lanka: 44%
South Africa: 30%
Trump said, “We will charge them approximately half of what they are and have been charging us — this includes all forms of tariffs, non-monetary barriers, and other trade manipulations.”

The full list also includes:

China: 34%
European Union: 20%
Japan: 24%
India: 26%
South Korea: 25%
Taiwan: 32%
Malaysia: 24%
Indonesia: 32%
Switzerland: 31%
Israel: 17%
Philippines: 17%
United Kingdom: 10%
Brazil: 10%
Singapore: 10%
Chile: 10%
Trump emphasized this was not a full one-to-one tariff match but rather a proportional measure intended to rebalance trade relations. “This is going to be our Golden Age,” he declared.

The tariffs are expected to take effect immediately, with the auto and parts sectors seeing 25% duties starting Thursday, and additional product categories expected to follow.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 31, 2025 at 10:20am

Trump Truth Social Posts On X
@TrumpTruthOnX
I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care. We have done very little business with India, their Tariffs are too high, among the highest in the World. Likewise, Russia and the USA do almost no business together. Let’s keep it that way, and tell Medvedev, the failed former President of Russia, who thinks he’s still President, to watch his words. He’s entering very dangerous territory!

https://x.com/TrumpTruthOnX/status/1950776077204513135
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Jayant Bhandari
@JayantBhandari5
Who would have thought that in comparison to India, Pakistan would be better friends with the US and Russia and be a deep friend of China? Modi and Chouhan's grotesquely corrupt and braindead regime made that possible.

https://x.com/JayantBhandari5/status/1950735268014944354

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Amir Husain
@amirhusain_tx
President Trump has announced an energy partnership with Pakistan. CPEC has made immense progress. Gwadar port and airport are done and ramping up. Thousands of megawatts of energy have come online. Large dams are being built. Pakistan has one of the fastest growing solar economies in the world. A new cutting edge, 1.2GW Nuclear reactor based on third gen tech is presently being built with China. Pakistan will drive 600% growth in shipping capacity over just the next three years. Road networks have been added at great speed. Pakistan Railways has hit record revenue. Just last year, hundreds of kilometers of highways were built. This year over 1,000km have been approved. Oil lies off Pakistan’s coast, in Sindh and Balochistan. At least ten new discoveries have been made since just 2024. An estimated fifty trillion dollars’ worth of rare earths and minerals lies beneath the surface. A partnership is emerging with China in this area. The Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum was a huge eye opener. There were hundreds of international delegates there to do deals. At the last IDEAS conference in Karachi, $30B in defense MoUs were executed, a few billion of which have already converted to orders, including with Azerbaijan. The PSX stock index is near all-time highs while Pakistani equities remain one of the most affordable in the region based on P/E multiples. There is massive interest in Pakistan’s economy right now.

https://x.com/amirhusain_tx/status/1950711516950638846

Comment by Riaz Haq yesterday

Why Trump’s Tariffs on India Are Part of a Wider Geopolitical Game: George Friedman – The Singju Post

https://singjupost.com/transcript-why-trumps-tariffs-on-india-are-p...

https://youtu.be/dgPROuLq2gA

India’s Strategic Value to the US
GEORGE FRIEDMAN: Well, the relationship between US and India has been moderately good. But India is not an essential country from the American standpoint. We have fundamental allies that we need badly, and then allies which we give, lose or win doesn’t much matter. India goes into that category.

When the Chinese cut were unable to continue to sell to the United States, everybody looked at India as an alternative. It’s not. It’s far from the level of the Chinese economy. And therefore, while we had good relations, this was an opportunity at the cost to India, which we didn’t much mind to both signal things to the Chinese and Russians, which we do mind. So different signals to both sides. But on the other hand, India is not a critical element in our strategy.

————

GEORGE FRIEDMAN: Well, trust is not a major term in international relations. Interest is we did not do these things with India before. We’ve had a non confrontational strategy toward China. We’ve not done anything particularly aggressive against China. China has on a number of occasions done some things aggressive against our allies. We’ve been defensive but passive in that.

So when you ask the question, what’s more important in the United States, a changed relationship with China, a changed attitude on the part of Russia or a relationship with India? If you have to ask the question, which is the most dangerous things in there? It’s Russia and China, which is least in that configuration? It’s India.

So if you can signal and then turn around and drop tariffs too, if it works, if you can just signal to the Russians that we will raise tariffs on anyone who trades with you and we’ll start with one of your biggest customers and the strongest, that’s helpful. Same with the Chinese side. If we signal that we are not going to go to war with you, that’s a good signal.

Strategic Unpredictability as Foreign Policy
In other words, when you are engaged in diplomacy or buying a house, there are two things you do. You act like you don’t want it and then you manipulate it until you can get your best price. Diplomacy is not necessarily best a consistent policy. Doing the unexpected. Sometimes when you’re carefully moderated, and this was carefully moderated, doing the unexpected and feeling the pressure is a possible way to reach an accommodation.

India was in this sense a victim, a minor, relatively minor cost to the Indians, certainly nothing to break relations over. On the other hand, it did signal to the Chinese that we’re not going to be going to war with them, which they worried about India and to the Russians that we really are going to impose tariffs. The most useless thing to do is say we’re going to really hurt you and never hurt them. The other thing not to say is, we’re going to attack you and then attack them. So in both cases, diplomacy consists both of having some advantages presented and some disadvantages, and this did both.

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