Comment by Riaz Haq on July 21, 2025 at 8:40pm

How India Can Placate America
In a Reversal, It’s Time for New Delhi to Be Generous With Washington

Milan Vaishnav

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/south-asia/how-india-can-placate-ame...

WHAT’S IN IT FOR ME?
With Trump’s victory in the November 2024 presidential election, many in India believed the country was well positioned to manage his return, given the experience of his first term. It has slowly become clear to Indian policymakers, however, that while Trump 1.0 was unpredictable, Trump 2.0 is unbound.

The second Trump administration is driven by an unyielding conviction that the United States has been badly taken advantage of, especially by its so-called allies and partners. Trump and his lieutenants claim that the United States has borne a disproportionate share of the burden in its myriad partnerships with little reciprocal benefit. Unlike its first iteration, this administration has fewer foreign policy veterans who believe in India’s intrinsic value as a bulwark against China.

In addition to skepticism about partnerships, the current administration’s incoherence about China has left India on uncertain ground. Although it is still early days, this Trump administration’s China policy is strikingly muddled. In Washington, it is an open secret that the administration has not one China strategy but many. Competing factions and schools of thought vie for influence. Trump’s team includes skeptics who downplay the China threat, hard-liners who champion Biden-era curbs on investment and technology, and dealmakers (possibly including Trump himself) who dream of a personal détente with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. In New Delhi, Indian officials struggle to parse the mixed signals.

In this Trump administration, few officials believe in India’s intrinsic value.
Trump has thus ended—or at least paused—the U.S. policy of strategic altruism. If successive U.S. leaders refrained from asking, “What can India do for us?” the current administration is shouting this question from the rooftops. Indeed, it is instructive that the administration has conditioned a broader dialogue with New Delhi on India acceding to several key demands.

First, as part of its policy of “reciprocal tariffs,” the Trump administration has threatened India with an across-the-board 26 percent tariff unless it delivers generous trade and market access concessions. India has emerged as one of the most enthusiastic suitors of a trade pact with the United States, with a tentative deal expected to be reached before the president’s new, arbitrary August 1 deadline. Although this “early harvest” deal may outline only basic terms, officials on both sides hope for a formal pact by this fall’s Quad summit in New Delhi.

Second, the administration has publicly pressed India to increase purchases of U.S.-made defense equipment. Although India has long relied on Russian arms imports, it has meaningfully diversified its portfolio of new purchases over the last decade, increasing the military equipment it buys from the West—notably from France, Israel, and the United States. In a February meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Trump floated the possibility of granting India access to buy cutting-edge F-35 stealth fighter jets, an offer normally restricted to the closest U.S. allies. India currently buys more arms from Russia and France than from the United States. Although it is unlikely that the United States could become India’s preferred military supplier even if New Delhi were so inclined—cost considerations alone would rule this out—Trump’s team believes India has been slow to accelerate the purchase of U.S. weapons.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 21, 2025 at 8:41pm

How India Can Placate America
In a Reversal, It’s Time for New Delhi to Be Generous With Washington

Milan Vaishnav

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/south-asia/how-india-can-placate-ame...

Finally, the administration has also implored India to do more on energy. It wants India to buy more U.S. liquid natural gas and oil, and India seems to be complying. In 2025 alone, India has more than doubled its oil imports from the United States. Washington is also lobbying New Delhi to amend its liability laws to allow for foreign firms to invest in the country’s civilian nuclear sector—the prime reason why the celebrated U.S.-Indian civil nuclear deal has never been consummated. Although the ink on the bilateral accord has long dried, India’s onerous regulations regarding liability issues continue to stymie American investment in Indian nuclear reactors.

RETURNING THE FAVOR
With strategic altruism in Washington on ice, India faces a new reality: New Delhi may have to swallow the bitter pill of making sacrifices today for the promise of security and prosperity tomorrow. In this reversal, it is India—not the United States—that must embrace delayed reciprocity, delivering tangible benefits without expecting short-term returns. For a country that has long prized strategic autonomy, this posture is an uncomfortable departure, although perhaps a necessary one. In the short term, it allows India to withstand the Trump storm in the hopes that either the current administration tempers its transactionalism or that it is eventually followed by a more traditional, strategically minded administration. Over the long run, India’s need for a strategic partnership with the United States remains as vital as it has been for the past quarter century.

That is because India requires significant foreign capital to help finance its ambitious domestic transformation. Although India’s trend growth of roughly 6.5 percent is robust by global standards, it is inadequate given the country’s development goals and the urgent needs of its burgeoning, young, and rapidly urbanizing workforce. To realize the Modi government’s vision of attaining developed-country status by 2047—an aspiration that implies a $30 trillion economy—India will require a massive influx of investment. At present, foreign direct investment inflows into India are muted; last fiscal year, India recorded its lowest level of net FDI inflows in at least two decades. For India to return to double-digit growth rates, renewed investment from the United States will be paramount.

India also needs American support in matters of security. The conflict with Pakistan in May underscored that India was fighting not one neighboring adversary but two; Pakistan used Chinese weapons systems to repel Indian attacks, relied on Chinese satellite imagery of Indian assets, and received real-time intelligence from Beijing on battlefield movements. India’s strategic vulnerability to China has only grown in recent years. Both countries remain locked in an unresolved standoff in the mountains of Ladakh, China has expanded its military infrastructure in the border region, and Beijing continues to encircle India through economic and military advances across South Asia. Despite its rhetoric of strategic autonomy, India cannot deter China alone; its defense posture and economic resilience hinge on American partnership to varying degrees.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 21, 2025 at 8:41pm

How India Can Placate America
In a Reversal, It’s Time for New Delhi to Be Generous With Washington

Milan Vaishnav

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/south-asia/how-india-can-placate-ame...

So, too, do India’s technological ambitions. India boasts world-class engineering talent, but it lacks the necessary resources and infrastructure to be an industry leader in the rapidly expanding field of artificial intelligence. In February 2026, India will host the next global AI summit. U.S. officials have privately suggested that this gathering could be an opportunity for large U.S.-based tech giants to unveil major investments in state-of-the-art AI infrastructure across India. Indeed, much of India’s tech talent has found a home not in India but in the United States. Often dismissed as a source of “brain drain,” the migration corridor between the two countries—the sixth largest globally—also brings substantial gains. In the last fiscal year alone, India received over $135 billion in remittances from around the world, nearly 30 percent of which originated in the United States.

DOMESTIC PRESSURES, GLOBAL IMPERATIVES
Within India, adopting a policy of strategic altruism toward the United States does carry risks. Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has long cultivated a muscular, nationalist image in contrast to the dovish, secular Indian National Congress. Concessions to Trump risk undercutting that image, especially given recent accusations that Modi yielded to White House pressure to finalize a cease-fire with Pakistan in May.

On the substance of its concessions, here, too, India will have to tread carefully. Energy and defense purchases may not be the stuff of mass political campaigns, but issues related to farmers and agriculture are. If India makes significant market access concessions to cater to American agricultural interests, Modi’s government will come dangerously close to touching the third rail of Indian politics. This is why India is more likely to offer the United States tariff relief on products such as ethanol, almonds, wine, and spirits rather than on staples such as rice, wheat, or dairy products.

With India’s economy punching below its weight, however, Modi’s inner circle realizes the status quo is no longer tenable. In recent years, India has raised tariffs, steadfastly remained outside mega-regional trade pacts, and subsidized domestic industry to stimulate investment. Collectively, these protectionist measures have failed to trigger an economic takeoff. If Modi can deftly use Trump as a foil—framing domestic tariff cuts as a tactical move to placate a capricious U.S. president—he can unlock trade reforms that better integrate India into global supply chains and yield long-term economic gains.

If anybody has the latitude to make such concessions to a bullying Washington, Modi does. Although the Modi-led BJP suffered a temporary setback in last year’s general elections, it remains dominant. In regional elections held over the past year, the ruling party decisively defeated opponents in key states, defying predictions of “peak Modi.” Few elected leaders enjoy Modi’s political space to take the high road with Trump. If he does so, he might succeed in insulating the U.S.-Indian relationship from the tumultuous present to reap the benefits of a more congenial future.

Some Indian strategists rightly worry that it takes a dangerous leap of faith to bet on the United States returning to moderation in 2028. But the alternative—strategic estrangement—could come at an even greater cost. In an era of global uncertainty, strategic altruism may be the highest form of self-interest India can exercise.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 25, 2025 at 6:43pm

Rabia Akhtar @Rabs_AA Secretary Rubio’s meeting with Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister reflects the evolving contours of a relationship shaped by shifting geopolitical currents from economic convergence to regional stability concerns. Amid great power realignments and renewed global uncertainty, Pakistan’s steady engagement signals a broader strategic maturity, tested in crises, affirmed in diplomacy. His closing recognition of Pakistan’s role in “preserving regional stability” marks a shift in how Islamabad’s strategic posture is being read. As a net security stabilizer in a volatile region, Pakistan’s restraint in moments of escalation during the May 2025 crisis is beginning to resonate as a deliberate strategic choice and not just as a circumstantial necessity or incidental. And that is an important recognition. https://x.com/Rabs_AA/status/1948883273515462912 ---------------- Secretary Marco Rubio @SecRubio Met with Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister @MIshaqDar50 today to discuss expanding bilateral trade and enhancing collaboration in the critical minerals sector. I also thanked him for Pakistan’s partnership in countering terrorism and preserving regional stability. https://x.com/SecRubio/status/1948807676496150888 --------------- Secretary Rubio meets Pakistan FM Dar U.S. and Pakistan deepen ties with focus on stability | AnewZ https://anewz.tv/world/world-news/11200/us-and-pakistan-deepen-ties... U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday praised Pakistan's role in promoting regional stability and discussed deeper cooperation on counterterrorism, trade, and critical minerals during a meeting in Washington with Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar. “The two also discussed prospects for deepening bilateral counterterrorism cooperation, including countering ISIS-K, and the upcoming U.S.-Pakistan Counterterrorism Dialogue in Islamabad this August,” the State Department said in the readout of the meeting. Rubio emphasized the importance of strengthening trade relations and exploring joint opportunities in the critical minerals and mining sectors. Ishaq Dar later described the meeting in a post on X as a “comprehensive discussion on the full spectrum of bilateral relations.” He reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment to a long-term partnership with the U.S., highlighting mutual interests in economic, trade, investment, and cooperation. Ishaq Dar also said they exchanged views on major regional and global issues. He thanked the U.S. for its 'constructive role' in helping facilitate the Pakistan-India ceasefire earlier in May.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 25, 2025 at 7:50pm

Pakistan army chief visits China, 1st since Trump meeting

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/pakistan-army-chief-visits-ch...

This marks first visit by Pakistani army chief to Beijing after recent conflict with India in May
China will always make Pakistan a priority in its neighborhood diplomacy, top diplomat Wang Yi tells Munir
ISLAMABAD / ISTANBUL

Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, visited China, where he met with top political and military leaders Thursday, marking his first trip since his unprecedented meeting with US President Donald Trump last month.

This was also Munir’s first visit to Beijing following a recent armed clash with India in May that left dozens dead and six aircraft downed.

During his visit, Munir met with Vice President Han Zheng and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, said a Pakistani military statement on Friday.

Talks focused on regional security, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and broader geopolitical cooperation.

They reaffirmed their commitment to sovereign equality, multilateral cooperation, and long-term regional stability.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang and Munir met on Thursday in Beijing, where the Chinese top diplomat lauded the Pakistani military "as a staunch defender of national interests and a firm supporter of China-Pakistan friendship."

"China and Pakistan are ironclad friends and all-weather strategic cooperative partners (and) China will, as always, take Pakistan as a priority in its neighborhood diplomacy," Wang told Munir, according to a readout of the meeting released by the Chinese foreign ministry.

Hoping that the Pakistani military "will continue to make efforts for the development of China-Pakistan relations, Wang told Munir, Beijing "is ready to work with Pakistan to... make due contributions to peace and stability in the region."

Extending support to Pakistan in "resolutely combating all forms of terrorism," Wang said he hopes that the Pakistani military "will continue to make all-out efforts to ensure the safety of Chinese personnel, projects and institutions in Pakistan."

Munir held further meetings with Gen. Zhang Youxia, vice chair of China’s Central Military Commission, and senior People's Liberation Army (PLA) officials at the PLA Army Headquarters in Beijing. The discussions were “focused on strengthening counterterrorism efforts, joint training, and defense modernization,” said the Pakistani military statement.

The Chinese military leadership "reiterated full confidence in the strength of the bilateral defense partnership and acknowledged Pakistan’s pivotal role in promoting regional peace," it added.

Munir also lauded China’s “unwavering support and emphasized Pakistan’s dedication to deepening military-to-military ties across all domains.”

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 27, 2025 at 6:21pm

Arnaud Bertrand
@RnaudBertrand
This is a funny and very revealing exchange: https://x.com/TristanNodalo/status/1947700345905549342/video/1

Filipino President Marcos, undoubtedly the most committed US vassal in Asia, doubles down on his commitment to the US in front of Trump, saying "there's no need to balance the relationship between the US and China" and that his "strongest partner has always been the US."

Trump immediately rebukes him, saying he "doesn't mind if [Marcos] gets along with China because we're getting along with China very well," and telling Marcos that getting along with China is "doing what's right for his country," would "make the Philippines great again" and "wouldn't bother me at all."

Now there are two ways to read this.

Either Trump is being disingenuous and in fact wants to continue traditional US foreign policy of containing China through regional alliances, and his public comments are merely rhetoric designed to appear reasonable while privately maintaining pressure on Marcos to choose sides in the US-China competition.

Or he does in fact represent a shift in US foreign policy whereby he accepts the reality of a multipolar world where containment is impossible and vassals like Marcos are therefore costs without much strategic benefit, from whom America won't require the anti-China alignment that defined the alliance system. In fact, in a multipolar world, as Trump is saying, it makes more sense for the US to "get along with China very well" and treat Beijing as a co-equal power rather than maintaining the expensive pretense of global hegemony.

I personally think it's becoming more and more obvious the latter is the case, as I argued in my recent article:
https://open.substack.com/pub/arnaudbertrand/p/has-america-in-fact-...

https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1949086436587618421

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Marcos returns 'empty-handed' as Trump says he doesn't mind if Philippines gets along with China - Global Times

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202507/1339053.shtml

uring a meeting with visiting Philippine President Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump told media, "I don't mind if he gets along with China, because we're getting along with China very well." The comment was seen by the media as catching Marcos off guard, interpreting it as a stunning message to the Philippine president regarding China.

When asked how he plans to balance his country's relationships between the US and China, Marcos said there was no need to balance. "Our strongest partner has always been the US," Marcos said.

However, in response, Trump said "We're getting along with China very well. And I don't mind if the president dealt with China, you know, because I think he has to do what's right for his country."

"I've always said, you know, make the Philippines great again. Do whatever you need to do, but [if] you're dealing with China, wouldn't bother me at all," Trump said.

Marcos is hoping that his meeting with Trump will help secure Manila's status as a key Asian ally and lead to a more favorable trade deal before the August 1 deadline, Reuters reported. The Associated Press also noted that the Philippine president's three-day visit underscores the importance of the US-Philippines alliance at a time when tensions between China and the Philippines remain high over disputes in the South China Sea.

The Hindustan Times described Trump's message to Marcos as "stunning."

Trump also said he will probably visit China "in the not too distant future," in answer to a question during his meeting with Marcos, per AP.

Comment by Riaz Haq on Wednesday

Trump Truth Social Posts On X
@TrumpTruthOnX
We are very busy in the White House today working on Trade Deals. I have spoken to the Leaders of many Countries, all of whom want to make the United States “extremely happy.” I will be meeting with the South Korean Trade Delegation this afternoon. South Korea is right now at a 25% Tariff, but they have an offer to buy down those Tariffs. I will be interested in hearing what that offer is.

We have just concluded a Deal with the Country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive Oil Reserves. We are in the process of choosing the Oil Company that will lead this Partnership. Who knows, maybe they’ll be selling Oil to India some day!

Likewise, other Countries are making offers for a Tariff reduction. All of this will help reduce our Trade Deficit in a very major way. A full report will be released at the appropriate time. Thank you for your attention to this matter. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

https://x.com/TrumpTruthOnX/status/1950654905804279830

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Trump Says Pakistan Deal Done, South Korea Is Close

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/fed-meeting-interest-rate-decision...


The U.S. and Pakistan have concluded a trade pact, President Trump said Wednesday, adding that a deal could be close with South Korea.

Trump said on Truth Social that the U.S. has “concluded a Deal with the Country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive Oil Reserves,” and is in the process of choosing a company to lead the partnership.

Trump also said he would meet with a South Korean delegation on Wednesday afternoon, who would bring an offer to “buy down” the 25% tariffs Trump has threatened to impose Aug. 1. Trump has previously pressed others to commit funds to build infrastructure and energy projects in the U.S., including the European Union and Japan.

Trump provided no further detail, but said "a full report" would be released "at the appropriate time."

Comment by Riaz Haq on Thursday

Trump Truth Social Posts On X
@TrumpTruthOnX
I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care. We have done very little business with India, their Tariffs are too high, among the highest in the World. Likewise, Russia and the USA do almost no business together. Let’s keep it that way, and tell Medvedev, the failed former President of Russia, who thinks he’s still President, to watch his words. He’s entering very dangerous territory!

https://x.com/TrumpTruthOnX/status/1950776077204513135
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Jayant Bhandari
@JayantBhandari5
Who would have thought that in comparison to India, Pakistan would be better friends with the US and Russia and be a deep friend of China? Modi and Chouhan's grotesquely corrupt and braindead regime made that possible.

https://x.com/JayantBhandari5/status/1950735268014944354

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Amir Husain
@amirhusain_tx
President Trump has announced an energy partnership with Pakistan. CPEC has made immense progress. Gwadar port and airport are done and ramping up. Thousands of megawatts of energy have come online. Large dams are being built. Pakistan has one of the fastest growing solar economies in the world. A new cutting edge, 1.2GW Nuclear reactor based on third gen tech is presently being built with China. Pakistan will drive 600% growth in shipping capacity over just the next three years. Road networks have been added at great speed. Pakistan Railways has hit record revenue. Just last year, hundreds of kilometers of highways were built. This year over 1,000km have been approved. Oil lies off Pakistan’s coast, in Sindh and Balochistan. At least ten new discoveries have been made since just 2024. An estimated fifty trillion dollars’ worth of rare earths and minerals lies beneath the surface. A partnership is emerging with China in this area. The Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum was a huge eye opener. There were hundreds of international delegates there to do deals. At the last IDEAS conference in Karachi, $30B in defense MoUs were executed, a few billion of which have already converted to orders, including with Azerbaijan. The PSX stock index is near all-time highs while Pakistani equities remain one of the most affordable in the region based on P/E multiples. There is massive interest in Pakistan’s economy right now.

https://x.com/amirhusain_tx/status/1950711516950638846

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