Comment by Riaz Haq on February 24, 2026 at 10:02am

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🥇 Pragnya Gupta
@GuptaPragnya
Indian-born economist Jayant Bhandari makes a sharp and uncomfortable claim: that many Indians are celebrating the idea of becoming a “world power” while ignoring harsh economic realities.

According to him, the narrative of strength and global dominance does not match the condition of the average citizen. He argues that when measured by per capita income, widespread poverty, unemployment, and inequality, India ranks among the poorest nations relative to its massive population.

The contrast is stark. On one hand — space missions, global summits, and trillion-dollar GDP headlines. On the other — struggling households, limited job creation, and rising living costs.

His statement is provocative and heavily debated. Yet it forces a critical question: Is national pride being built on aggregate numbers while individual prosperity lags behind?

A country’s true strength is not just in its global image — it lies in the dignity, income, and security of its people.

https://x.com/GuptaPragnya/status/2026235411966947507?s=20

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 1, 2026 at 8:28pm

How India Became One of the World’s Biggest Economies - The New York Times

India has grown rapidly despite its slow industrialization, and its economy is now nearly as big as Japan’s.


https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/27/business/india-economy-gdp.html

India, the world’s fastest-growing large economy for four years in a row, released data on Friday showing that it expanded at a rate of 7.5 percent last year, driven in part by strength in manufacturing.

Many economists, and India’s government, had expected India to become the world’s fourth-largest economy in 2025, overtaking Japan in size. Instead, with the Indian rupee weak against the dollar and Japan’s yen relatively strong, India’s economy stayed a step behind when measured in dollar terms.

But in terms of growth, India far outperformed Japan, which grew only 1.1 percent in 2025. The three largest economies — the United States, China and Germany — all grew more slowly than India last year.

India became the world’s fifth-largest economy four years ago, pushing aside Britain, its former colonial ruler. The International Monetary Fund has projected that India will nudge past Japan in 2026.

The strong growth last year underscores India’s place as one of the world’s most consequential centers of economic gravity, despite breaking every rule about how countries are supposed to modernize. Its rise up the league table of economies has given it geopolitical clout and drawn interest from investors. Yet the shape of its progress is unique. With India’s economic power growing even faster than its population — now more than 1.4 billion people, larger than any other country’s — India is on a course all its own.

The country’s thousands of small businesses hire most of its workers, but an increasing share of growth has come from its biggest companies. Dynastic family firms play an outsize role at every scale, from conglomerates like Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Group to industry-specific companies.

Sanjiv Bajaj, a scion of a 100-year-old family business with roots in the automotive sector, has had a ringside view of India’s growth. Mr. Bajaj, 56, split off the Bajaj group’s financial services operation from Bajaj Auto in 2007. Bajaj Finserv started with $550 million under management and now controls $53 billion. Its own market value has grown 377 times over.

Much of the company’s success can be traced to India’s policies to modernize technology. In the past decade, the government has pushed biometric IDs and digital payments, pulling a majority of India’s adults into the banking system. India’s own digital payments system now processes 20 billion transactions a month. Most amounts are tiny, Mr. Bajaj said, but the sheer size of the country’s population means that even small shifts in behavior turn into tremendous moneymaking opportunities.

All of that data, Mr. Bajaj said, “allows us to look at every small shop owner and see his inflows and outflows every day.” His company can now make lending decisions at an enormous scale, bringing millions of Indians into the formal credit system, he said.

———-
Bajaj Auto was much bigger than Bajaj Finserv when the companies split ways, but now the banking company is 50 percent larger. Finance, not factories, has been the hotter sector in India, as it is in the United States.

Comment by Riaz Haq on March 5, 2026 at 8:03pm

India’s economy is not as big as economists thought

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/03/05/indias-e...

Indian officials have been in a boastful mood lately. A government report in December argued that judging by real-time economic indicators, India had overtaken Japan as the world’s fourth-biggest economy. This was to become economic fact once the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation updated how it calculates gdp. So in one sense, the new numbers released on February 27th are a disappointment: gdp was 3.3% smaller than previously thought. In other ways, though, they are a cause for celebration.
The methodological update, the first since 2015, reset the “base year”—which sets the weights for different parts of the economy—to 2022. It also added new data sources that capture a clearer picture of the Indian economy. The country looks more rural than before. Agriculture, responsible for 18% of gdp, appears bigger, largely thanks to more detail on fisheries and dairy. Finance and business services also produced a bit more output, while commerce, hotels and transport generated 26% less. The net effect is a service sector that looks 8% smaller than it did using the previous methodology, and makes up 41% of the economy. Manufacturing, which accounts for 15%, has also shrunk slightly.
On the bright side, India is growing even faster than previously believed. gdp expanded by 7.1% in the fiscal year 2024-25, up from an earlier figure of 6.5%. Other numbers show it has grown quickly since, despite facing high duties on exports to America from August until last month, when the Supreme Court curtailed Donald Trump’s willy-nilly tariffing. Although manufacturing’s share failed to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s goal of a quarter of gdp by 2025, high-tech production and electronics assembly are fuelling growth. Business-friendly reforms to taxes and regulations are starting to pay off, too.
A qualified win for India, then—and also a victory for Indian statistics. Economists have raised doubts over the gdp figures released shortly after Mr Modi came into power 12 years ago, and which revised down growth under the previous administration. The shelving of a survey in 2019 that showed a drop in rural consumption hinted that the government might suppress inconvenient facts. That the new figures show a less rosy picture of Mr Modi’s record should reassure observers that the government will not hide unflattering data. And the figures should reassure Mr Modi that India’s title as the world’s fastest-growing big economy remains secure, even if it is not quite as big as he hoped. ■

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 28, 2026 at 5:22pm

@ashoswai

Khajuraho airport has no commercial plane in operation but it is No1 in Customer Satisfaction Index in India. No one believes Modi regime's data and no one should. The fraud has made the country a joke.


https://x.com/ashoswai/status/2082201824535212102?s=61&t=mgTxrm...

——-+++——

‘India’s no. 1’ Khajuraho airport has zero flights: Report

The airport’s terminal building was reportedly completed in the late 1960s, while its maiden flight took off in 1978.

https://www.thestatesman.com/india/indias-no-1-khajuraho-airport-ha...


The Khajuraho Airport in Madhya Pradesh was recently ranked as the country’s top airport in the latest Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI) of the Airports Authority of India, even though it currently has no commerical flights operating.

According to The Times of India, the report has stirred debate within the aviation sector, prompting questions about the criteria of the AAI survey. It states that the airport currently has no commercial flights operating during July and August.

Further, it highlights that prior to the suspension the airport used to handle only two flights, connecting Delhi and Varanasi. Both the routes have been discontinued now.

The airport’s terminal building was reportedly completed in the late 1960s, while its maiden flight took off in 1978.

“Flights from here usually go to Delhi and Varanasi, but there are none since July 1,” TOI quoted airport director Santosh Singh as saying.

The official added that flights to Delhi and Varanasi are expected to restart in October.

Further, it highlights that prior to the suspension the airport used to handle only two flights, connecting Delhi and Varanasi. Both the routes have been discontinued now.

The airport’s terminal building was reportedly completed in the late 1960s, while its maiden flight took off in 1978.

“Flights from here usually go to Delhi and Varanasi, but there are none since July 1,” TOI quoted airport director Santosh Singh as saying.

The official added that flights to Delhi and Varanasi are expected to restart in October.


Further, it stated that the CSI is compiled from surveys conducted twice a year by independent agencies to ensure the process remains objective. Passengers rate airports on 33 core parameters that cover almost everything from ground transport and parking facilities to Wi-Fi connectivity and food outlets, as well as separate questions on hygiene and cleanliness.

Officials said that these responses are later combined into a composite score out of five.

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 2, 2026 at 10:22am

Former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg says there is a lot of distress among the wage earning class where incomes don't seem to have grown in real terms over the years. The other really sad development is 8 to 9 crore crore youth are out of the employment market. Therefore there is a new to investigate whether GDP is actually growing at the rate officially claimed.


https://youtu.be/ReWkJTEcQd4?is=1i5gdFSEk81oH5ih

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Subhash Chandra Garg
@Subhashgarg1960
I explain analytical base of my conclusion that GDP growth in Q1 in 2026-27 in current price is 2.6% and in real terms close to 0. There are still messier distortions in sectoral performance with manufacturing and consumption witnessing negative growth.

https://x.com/Subhashgarg1960/status/2095074164814258439?s=20

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@Manoj_216

Last year, Q1 2025-26:
Nominal GDP was ₹86 trillion (everyone celebrated)
It was then conveniently revised down to ₹80 trillion (almost a 7% downward revision) (after celebrations were over).

This quarter, Q1 2026-27:
Nominal GDP is ₹88.27 trillion rupees.
This may also get conveniently revised down later after the celebrations are over.

Compare unrevised (₹86 trillion) vs unrevised (₹88.27 trillion), we have grown only by 2.6%

Oops! too much of a number game going on !

https://x.com/manoj_216/status/2094990270337290344?s=46&t=Uy6jy...

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India's 20 years of GDP misestimation: New evidence

Abhishek Anand (Madras Institute of Development Studies), Josh Felman (JH Consulting) and Arvind Subramanian (PIIE)
Working Paper 26-3
March 2026
Photo Credit: REUTERS/Amit Dave


https://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/2026/indias-20-yea...


KEY TAKEAWAYS

India’s annual economic growth during the boom years between 2005 and 2011 may have been underestimated by about 1–1½ percentage points on average, and subsequent growth between 2012 and 2023 may have been overestimated by about 1½-2 percentage points.
The first methodological issue leading to the misestimation is that the economy’s formal sector has been used as a proxy for the vast informal sector, even though the latter was disproportionately hit after 2015 by demonetization, the introduction of the goods and services tax, and the COVID-19 pandemic.
The second methodological issue causing misestimation is that the deflators for many sectors have been based on commodity prices, which have moved sharply relative to others.



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Ex-finance secretary raises concerns
Former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg told India Today that the real GDP data in the new series for the first quarter of the financial year 2025-’26 was not available as it had been released based on the old series at the time.

“So, the number which has now been used as a base for 2025-’26 Q1 is the number that [the government] has come out with for the first time,” he said. “Therefore, comparing it with that base should be taken with a little bit of a pinch of salt.”

Garg said that the GDP growth analysis is done in terms of current prices and that the government had “drastically revised” the gross domestic product at current prices for the first quarter of 2025-’26.

“It’s such a massive, drastic reduction in the base year’s Q1 GDP at current prices that the growth is now 10.3%,” he told the news channel. “If you had taken the numbers – and the current prices don’t change – which were put out last year as the GDP at current prices, the growth would be less than 2.5% in current prices – nominal GDP.”

https://scroll.in/latest/1095427/pms-economic-adviser-denies-allega...

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 3, 2026 at 8:41am

@PraveshParas


Former Finance Secretary Subhash Garg is right to question the 7.8% GDP growth figure. Last year’s first-quarter GDP at current prices was first reported at ₹86 lakh crore. It was later revised down to rupees 80 lakh crore. This year’s figure is rupees 88.27 lakh crore. Compare that with the original rupees 86 lakh crore and nominal growth is only about 2.6%. After inflation, real growth almost disappears.
Imagine a kirana shop. Last year the owner said April-June sales were rupees 86,000. This year they were rupees 88,270 just 2.6% more. Now he says last year’s sales were actually only rupees 80,000. Suddenly this year looks like a 10% jump. The extra growth came from changing last year’s number, not from selling much more. That is what happened with GDP. People feel the difference in weak jobs, slow spending and tight household budgets. The government must explain the rupees 6 lakh crore revision instead of celebrating a number that looks better only on paper.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Govt may be right in their perception but even common man feels there is no changing his life or prosperity then what is the point of GDP growth. Even in stock market, investors are big shark , they understand every bit of financial growth, they are good in numbers, so why have market fallen for three consecutive sessions after announcement. However no anchor looked me convincing on understanding of GDP and its calculation so they were also throwing ball from one side to another. @DILIPtheCHERIAN @iamnarendranath @bainjal @rohini_sgh @vijaita @suhasinih @ShereenBhan @suchetadalal @latha_venkatesh @sanjayuvacha @Subhashgarg1960 @NKSingh_MP @MishraPrac @maryashakil


https://x.com/praveshparas/status/2095425807321895313?s=61&t=mg...

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 4, 2026 at 9:40am

Pronab Sen, the first chief statistician of India, in a telephonic conversation with Asit Ranjan Mishra, explains his key concern about the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data and the criticism he doesn’t subscribe to. Edited excerpts:

https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/methodology-of-new-g...

How do you see the 7.8 per cent GDP growth in the first quarter (April-June/Q1) of 2026-27? Does it pass the smell test?
 
It’s difficult to say whether it passes the smell test because what we have seen is large downward revisions in the recent past. Remember, the first estimate we get for quarterly GDP is based on very, very weak data. So, one can only go by recent history, and recent history has seen fairly substantial downward revisions. So, I am a little shaky about it because I have questions about the data. My personal hypothesis is that this 10 per cent nominal growth they’ve got is probably right. My question is really about the price deflators, which determine real GDP growth.

The Q1 GDP numbers have also become the most contested in recent times. How do you see the controversy that has erupted surrounding them?
 
I don’t know what all the criticism is. The only criticism I have read is by (former finance secretary) Subhash Chandra Garg.

So, what do you think about his criticism?
 
I don’t quite agree. The convention has always been to compare the latest estimate with the latest revised estimate.
 
Garg is also questioning the sharp downward revision of Q1 of 2025-26 nominal GDP under the new base year?
 
There can be several reasons for it. When you do the base revision, you make corrections for all the overstatements you made previously. Now, usually, these have not been very large. This time, the revision has been large, 7-8 per cent. And the principal reason for it, I think, is overestimation of GDP in the past. So, they’ve just corrected that.

So, what is the real issue with the new GDP series?
 
I’m questioning the methodology in the new GDP series. Essentially, the changes they have made are all legitimate, desirable, and known earlier as well. The reason we didn’t do it is that we didn't have the data.
 
There are a couple of things, and they all have to do with prices and price indices. What they’ve done this time around is double deflation, which is a good thing to do. But the point is, it is much more data-demanding. I don’t know whether they have that data. When you are doing single deflation, you need data only on the price of the final goods.

Now, you need prices not only for the final goods, but for all inputs, which is a much larger number of goods. I have not seen any evidence that they have that data.
 
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (Mospi) has used the Output Producer Price Index (PPI) in double deflation. But for the input deflator, we do not know whether input PPI has been used because it is at an experimental stage.
 
I don’t know what they have done. This is my problem because if you are to do the input side, you need input prices. Have they collected them? Have they used them? If so, why have they not been made public? So, my problem is really with the data.

Mospi has said the “sources and methods” will be released within two weeks.
 
Remember, the new base estimates were released last year. It should have already been released so that we know what was going on.
 
What are your other concerns?
 
The second is PPI. We had not been able to calculate the PPI for more than two decades because producers didn’t give us the prices. They said that this is a trade secret. PPI you can only get from the producer. You can’t get it from anybody else, whereas the wholesale price index (WPI) is a market price, which you can go and take quotations. You can’t do that with PPI. The producer has to give it to you.

And quite often, there is no one price because a producer may sell to a large distributor at one price and to a small distributor at a different price. So, he has to give you the average. I don’t know whether they’ve been able to collect this data. And if they have, I don’t know how they’ve done it unless Indian companies have become very cooperative.
 
Do you think Mospi should have waited for the PPI series to mature before adopting it as a deflator?
 
The good practice is that when you’re introducing a completely new dataset, you should run the two datasets in parallel. Make the estimates on the basis of the two sets separately and present them to the public. So, you can see what the differences are. But to say, I’m discontinuing this (WPI) and starting this (PPI) abruptly without any further information, what you’re saying, in effect, is, “Trust me”. But trust is only built when you can compare. Now, I can’t compare because I have no overlapping series.

Another contentious issue has been the 9.2 per cent real manufacturing growth, where the deflator has become negative (-1.5 per cent). Is this normal while using double deflation or an aberration?
 
It can happen with double deflation. With single deflation, it can’t happen.
 
Mospi has said that there is no reason for the GDP deflator to track the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or WPI because their coverage is different. Do you agree? Questions have been raised about the 2.5 per cent deflator in a quarter when WPI was close to double digits.
 
It does look suspicious. This is my problem because there are too many things happening. You’re switching from WPI to PPI. You are doing double deflation.

In the UK or Australia, detailed supply-use and national accounts data allow researchers to reconstruct much of the GDP calculation. Why is it not done in India?
 
Because they don't release the raw data.
 
So, are you saying that should be released?
 
Yes. At a certain level of aggregation, of course. You can't release the data at the unit level because there are confidentiality concerns.
 
But why was it not done even during your time at Mospi?
 
We have never been in that habit. It’s a matter of habit. But at that time, things were straightforward enough. The CPI data was released in the full breakdown. The entire data set is available for WPI.

Tell me a few things that you would like to see that would give you more confidence in the numbers that have been released.
 
What I would like to see is basically how they’ve calculated GDP. How they’ve got the data for the PPI. If you’ve got it, please release it for a length of time so that we can check its stability.
 
Secondly, what on earth have you done with double deflation? Where is your input data? You've given me no indication of that. To do that properly, you would need a massive Supply and Use Table (SUT). Where is that? They discontinued the SUT, in fact. It was being produced and they stopped it.

Not only should they not have stopped, but they should have actually expanded it. And obviously, we should provide more data so that researchers can reconstruct the index. That is better for transparency purposes.

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