Comment by Riaz Haq on June 11, 2026 at 9:52am

Manufacturing posts strongest growth in four years as inflation eases sharply
Foreign reserves, remittances rise while fiscal deficit narrows to 0.7 percent of GDP

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economy expanded 3.7 percent and reached a record size of $452.1 billion in the outgoing fiscal year 2025-26, according to the Economic Survey released on Thursday, as the government highlighted gains in manufacturing, inflation and external-sector indicators ahead of the federal budget.

The Economic Survey is an annual government document that reviews the performance of key sectors in the outgoing fiscal year and is traditionally released a day before the federal budget. Pakistan’s federal budget for FY2026-27 is due to be presented on June 12.

The survey showed Pakistan’s GDP growth increased to 3.7 percent in FY26 from 3.2 percent in FY25 and 2.6 percent in FY24, while the size of the economy expanded to Rs126.9 trillion, equivalent to $452.1 billion, the largest recorded economic size in the country’s history. Per capita income rose to $1,901 from $1,751 a year earlier.

The survey attributed the improvement to stronger manufacturing activity, easing inflation and a more stable external position despite regional tensions, volatile energy prices and global economic uncertainty.

“If I were sitting with you in January or February, we had a very strong view that this year’s growth will exceed 4 percent. But as you all know, we were affected by the conflict in the Middle East,” Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb told reporters while unveiling the survey in Islamabad, referring to the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war.

“Having said that, we have reached the biggest economic volume in the history of the country, which has reached Rs126.9 trillion or $452.1 billion.”

One of the strongest contributors to growth was large-scale manufacturing, which expanded 6.1 percent during FY26, its highest growth rate in four years. According to the survey, 16 of 22 manufacturing sectors recorded positive growth, including food, textiles, automobiles, petroleum products and electrical equipment.

Average consumer inflation stood at 6.7 percent during the July-May period, compared with 4.5 percent in FY25 and 23.4 percent in FY24, according to the survey, which said price stability was largely maintained despite the impact of regional conflict on energy prices.

Pakistan’s external accounts also showed improvement. The current account deficit stood at $252 million during July-April, while foreign exchange reserves rose to $17.2 billion by May 29, up 49 percent from a year earlier.

Workers’ remittances reached $33.9 billion during July-May, up 9 percent year-on-year, while monthly inflows hit a record $4.3 billion in April, according to the survey.

The country’s trade deficit stood at $23.53 billion during July-March.

------------

https://x.com/ArifHabibLtd/status/2065012155041370283?s=20


Sheheryar Butt
@PSX100
Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-26 – Key Highlights

📈 GDP Growth

Economic Growth: 3.7% (Target: 4.2%)
Agriculture Growth: 2.9%
Industrial Growth: 3.5%
Services Sector Growth: 4.1%

💰 Macroeconomic Indicators

Per Capita Income: US$ 1,901
Investment-to-GDP Ratio: 14.3%
Savings-to-GDP Ratio: 14.1%

🏭 Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) Performance

Overall LSM Growth: 6.5% ▲

Major Performing Sectors

Food: 9.8% ▲
Coke & Petroleum Products: 10.9% ▲
Wearing Apparel: 6.6% ▲
Textile: 0.7% ▲
Mining & Quarrying: 0.4% ▲

Weak Performing Sectors

Chemicals: -1.4% ▼
Pharmaceuticals: -5.1% ▼
PSX Perspective

✅ Strong growth in LSM, Food, Petroleum Products, and Apparel is positive for related listed companies.

⚠️ Weak performance in Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals may keep investor sentiment cautious toward these sectors.

📊 Overall, the survey indicates a gradual economic recovery, though GDP growth remained below the government's target of 4.2%.

https://x.com/PSX100/status/2065020729436049561?s=20

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 11, 2026 at 9:52am

Manufacturing posts strongest growth in four years as inflation eases sharply
Foreign reserves, remittances rise while fiscal deficit narrows to 0.7 percent of GDP

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economy expanded 3.7 percent and reached a record size of $452.1 billion in the outgoing fiscal year 2025-26, according to the Economic Survey released on Thursday, as the government highlighted gains in manufacturing, inflation and external-sector indicators ahead of the federal budget.

The Economic Survey is an annual government document that reviews the performance of key sectors in the outgoing fiscal year and is traditionally released a day before the federal budget. Pakistan’s federal budget for FY2026-27 is due to be presented on June 12.

The survey showed Pakistan’s GDP growth increased to 3.7 percent in FY26 from 3.2 percent in FY25 and 2.6 percent in FY24, while the size of the economy expanded to Rs126.9 trillion, equivalent to $452.1 billion, the largest recorded economic size in the country’s history. Per capita income rose to $1,901 from $1,751 a year earlier.

The survey attributed the improvement to stronger manufacturing activity, easing inflation and a more stable external position despite regional tensions, volatile energy prices and global economic uncertainty.

“If I were sitting with you in January or February, we had a very strong view that this year’s growth will exceed 4 percent. But as you all know, we were affected by the conflict in the Middle East,” Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb told reporters while unveiling the survey in Islamabad, referring to the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war.

“Having said that, we have reached the biggest economic volume in the history of the country, which has reached Rs126.9 trillion or $452.1 billion.”

One of the strongest contributors to growth was large-scale manufacturing, which expanded 6.1 percent during FY26, its highest growth rate in four years. According to the survey, 16 of 22 manufacturing sectors recorded positive growth, including food, textiles, automobiles, petroleum products and electrical equipment.

Average consumer inflation stood at 6.7 percent during the July-May period, compared with 4.5 percent in FY25 and 23.4 percent in FY24, according to the survey, which said price stability was largely maintained despite the impact of regional conflict on energy prices.

Pakistan’s external accounts also showed improvement. The current account deficit stood at $252 million during July-April, while foreign exchange reserves rose to $17.2 billion by May 29, up 49 percent from a year earlier.

Workers’ remittances reached $33.9 billion during July-May, up 9 percent year-on-year, while monthly inflows hit a record $4.3 billion in April, according to the survey.

The country’s trade deficit stood at $23.53 billion during July-March.

------------

https://x.com/ArifHabibLtd/status/2065012155041370283?s=20


Sheheryar Butt
@PSX100
Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-26 – Key Highlights

📈 GDP Growth

Economic Growth: 3.7% (Target: 4.2%)
Agriculture Growth: 2.9%
Industrial Growth: 3.5%
Services Sector Growth: 4.1%

💰 Macroeconomic Indicators

Per Capita Income: US$ 1,901
Investment-to-GDP Ratio: 14.3%
Savings-to-GDP Ratio: 14.1%

🏭 Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) Performance

Overall LSM Growth: 6.5% ▲

Major Performing Sectors

Food: 9.8% ▲
Coke & Petroleum Products: 10.9% ▲
Wearing Apparel: 6.6% ▲
Textile: 0.7% ▲
Mining & Quarrying: 0.4% ▲

Weak Performing Sectors

Chemicals: -1.4% ▼
Pharmaceuticals: -5.1% ▼
PSX Perspective

✅ Strong growth in LSM, Food, Petroleum Products, and Apparel is positive for related listed companies.

⚠️ Weak performance in Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals may keep investor sentiment cautious toward these sectors.

📊 Overall, the survey indicates a gradual economic recovery, though GDP growth remained below the government's target of 4.2%.

https://x.com/PSX100/status/2065020729436049561?s=20

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 11, 2026 at 9:57am

Does official gdp include undocumented economy in pakistan?

No, official GDP figures in Pakistan do not include the undocumented or informal economy. Official statistics only track registered, formal-sector transactions, meaning cash trades, barters, and unregistered small businesses are omitted from the primary Official Pakistan GDP tally.Key Facts About Pakistan's Undocumented Economy:Scale: The undocumented economy is massive. Estimates by the World Bank and International Labour Organization place its value at approximately $457 billion, which constitutes over 40% to 56% of the country's official, documented GDP.Employment: Up to 72% of the non-agricultural workforce and nearly three million businesses operate in the informal sector, sustaining massive consumer demand that goes untracked by the Federal Board of Revenue.True Economic Size: When informal and shadow-market wealth are factored in, some economists and independent researchers estimate Pakistan's true purchasing power and adjusted GDP could approach $800 to $900 billion.To understand the full scope of unrecorded economic activity, would you like to:Learn more about how institutions like the State Bank of Pakistan measure shadow wealth?Review government initiatives aiming to bring informal sectors into the official tax net?Explore how these unrecorded figures impact per-capita purchasing power metrics?

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 11, 2026 at 12:53pm

Does official gdp include undocumented economy in india?

Official GDP in India only partially includes the undocumented economy. While the government attempts to estimate the legal but unorganized informal sector (such as unregistered small businesses and street vendors) using surveys and proxy data, it excludes illegal activities (such as the black market, smuggling, and tax evasion).The treatment of these undocumented sectors breaks down as follows:The Informal Economy: The informal sector makes up a significant portion of India's overall economic activity. The government captures parts of this through supply-use tables and employment data. Because the informal sector is largely cash-based and difficult to track, India's Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation frequently updates its methodology. For instance, initiatives have focused on integrating digital payments and GST data into updated GDP series (e.g., using a base year of 2022-23) to better account for this activity.The Illegal/Black Economy: Outright illegal transactions (e.g., drug trafficking, bribery, and unregistered/prohibited trades) are entirely omitted from official GDP calculations, as standard gross domestic product accounting only measures legally produced goods and services.If you are interested, I can explain:How the International Labour Organization classifies informal laborWhat proxies the government uses to measure unregistered businessesHow much the informal sector is estimated to contribute to total output

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 15, 2026 at 10:35am

Pakistan on Friday invited Saudi investors to participate in the construction of the long-awaited Sukkur-Hyderabad Motorway (M6) and two other major highway projects, as Islamabad sought to attract foreign capital into its expanding transport infrastructure sector.


https://www.dawn.com/news/2005550

Once completed, the motorway is expected to provide uninterrupted motorway connectivity from Karachi Port to Peshawar and onward to Gilgit.

The offer was extended by Federal Communications Minister Aleem Khan during a meeting with the Chairman of the Saudi-Pakistan Joint Business Council, Prince Mansour bin Muhammad Al Saud, who held high-level talks with the minister on promoting bilateral economic cooperation and investment.


According to the Ministry of Communications, Aleem Khan presented investment opportunities in three strategic road projects: the M6 Sukkur-Hyderabad Motorway, the M10 Karachi Port and the M13 Kharian-Rawalpindi motorways. The minister described the projects as commercially attractive ventures with strong potential for long-term returns.


Karachi Port and M-6 among three key projects highlighted to attract foreign capital

The outreach comes as Pakistan accelerates efforts to develop its road infrastructure and secure private-sector participation in large-scale transport projects.

In April, the National Highway Authority (NHA) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) signed an agreement for the construction of two sections of the M6 Motorway, a project regarded as a critical component of the country’s north-south transport corridor.

Missing link

At the time, Mr Khan termed the agreement a significant milestone, saying the motorway project, which had remained unrealised for nearly three decades, was expected to move forward within two years. He described the M6 as the missing link in the Karachi-Sukkur corridor and a project of considerable economic importance.

The 306-kilometre, six-lane motorway will include 15 interchanges and 10 service areas. It is the only remaining missing segment in the motorway network connecting Karachi and Peshawar.

During Friday’s discussions, the minister formally invited the Saudi Business Council (SBC) to explore investment opportunities in Pakistan’s transport infrastructure, particularly in motorway development and related connectivity projects.

He said the proposed routes offered strong commercial prospects and could generate attractive returns for investors due to their strategic location and economic significance.

Business councils

The minister assured the Saudi delegation that investors would be offered commercially viable investment models and noted that the expansion of Pakistan’s road network was playing a key role in facilitating trade and economic activity across the region.

Both sides also reaffirmed the importance of strengthening economic cooperation between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia through institutional platforms such as the Saudi-Pakistan Business Council.

Prince Mansour expressed the SBC’s interest in examining partnership opportunities in the motorway schemes, saying the council was well positioned to collaborate in Pakistan’s communications and infrastructure sectors.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 23, 2026 at 7:53pm

Pakistan, Iran presidents reaffirm commitment to stronger bilateral ties, regional peace

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202606/24/WS6a3b392ca310986e2b46195...

Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari and visiting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Tuesday reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening bilateral relations and promoting peace and stability in the region, Pakistan's Presidency said in a statement.

During the talks, the two leaders discussed a wide range of issues, including regional peace and security, bilateral and regional connectivity, and economic cooperation, the statement said.

Welcoming Pezeshkian on his first state visit to Pakistan following the recent regional conflict, Zardari said the visit reflected the longstanding brotherly relations between the two neighboring countries and their resolve to stand together in both challenging and prosperous times.

Zardari congratulated the Iranian president on the signing of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which aims to advance the peace process between the United States and Iran, and expressed hope that ongoing technical-level negotiations will contribute to lasting peace and stability in the region.

The Pakistani president reiterated Islamabad's principled support for Iran's peace, stability, national unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity. He emphasized that Pakistan has consistently advocated dialogue and diplomacy as the most effective means of addressing regional and global challenges.

Pezeshkian thanked Pakistan for its constructive role in supporting peace and dialogue, and appreciated the support extended by Islamabad during recent challenging circumstances.

The Iranian president said Tehran attaches great importance to its relations with Pakistan and looks forward to expanding cooperation in political, economic, security and regional affairs.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 24, 2026 at 9:51am

Pakistan’s AI future

By Vugar Usi


https://www.thenews.pk/magazine/money-matters/1421801-pakistans-ai-...

Pakistan has placed artificial intelligence (AI) near the centre of its economic agenda. At the Indus AI Summit in February, the government announced a $1 billion AI investment commitment by 2030.

The plan covers sovereign compute infrastructure and research, an AI curriculum for schools, 1,000 fully funded PhD scholarships and training for one million non-IT professionals.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recently pointed to a national backbone of more than 234,000 kilometres of fibre-optic network, six submarine cables, around 58,000 cellular towers, and over 20 modern data centres.

These are substantial commitments. Pakistan is going to create the conditions that allow AI to improve the way businesses operate, workers build skills and public institutions serve people.

GPUs attract attention because they are visible, expensive and closely associated with the global AI race. They are also only one part of the system.

The World Bank, in its Digital Progress and Trends Report 2025, offers a useful framework that identifies four foundations for AI adoption: connectivity, compute, context and competency. The four cover infrastructure, processing power, locally relevant data and the skills to use it. A powerful model creates little value when an SME cannot count on stable internet access. The same applies when a public agency works with disconnected databases or when a teacher receives a new tool without the training needed to use it well.

Running a digital platform makes this easy to see. People experience technology through reliability, speed, cost, and trust -- the same standards by which AI will be judged.

The same applies to our work at MEXC. In the first quarter of 2026, MEXC AI-related features reached around 140,000 daily active users, with more than 1.04 million users over the quarter. No surprise that people are more likely to use AI when it is useful, easy to access, and built into tools they understand.

Pakistan already has important digital foundations in place. Its national identity system and instant-payment infrastructure have created opportunities for more efficient public services. Yet the country still lags behind comparable economies in digital infrastructure, digital governance and the broader environment needed for a strong digital economy.

There is also uneven connectivity across districts and the relatively high cost of fixed broadband. These problems can feel abstract until a business tries to move more of its operations online. AI adoption makes dependable access even more important.

Power is one of the clearest pressure points. World Bank President Ajay Banga described electricity-sector reform as Pakistan’s most urgent near-term priority. Distribution losses and inefficiencies continue to limit growth, even after improvements in generation capacity.

AI will not solve Pakistan’s employment challenge by itself. It can still help companies become more productive, support new businesses and give workers useful tools. The real impact will depend on how widely those tools are available
The underlying problem is that Pakistan has continued to experience outages and load shedding despite maintaining surplus generation capacity. A large part of that capacity remains underused because the transmission network has not kept pace.

AI adds a further dimension of urgency. Data centres and cloud platforms require reliable power. If they need to work around power cuts, backup power charges, or patchy internet speeds, it will be difficult for companies to integrate AI tools into their daily workflows.

The local data-centre investment can place additional pressure on power grids. New computing capacity has to be matched with affordable energy and resilient digital networks.

So before Pakistan can aim to lead in AI, it needs a more dependable digital economy. Grid modernisation, broadband access, fibre networks and data-centre investment belong in the same conversation.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 24, 2026 at 9:51am

Pakistan’s AI future

By Vugar Usi


https://www.thenews.pk/magazine/money-matters/1421801-pakistans-ai-...

Hardware and connectivity will only take the country so far. The people using AI will ultimately determine its economic value. Pakistan has started to recognise this. The national plan announced at the Indus AI Summit includes training for one million non-IT professionals. A separate initiative is already training 10,000 government officials to strengthen digital capacity across public institutions and improve service delivery.

This is a promising start. People also need the skills to use these tools with confidence. Roads help people get to markets and telecom networks help businesses get to customers. Practical AI skills can help workers find their place in a shifting economy, too.

AI capability must be built as infrastructure, underpinned by learning anchored in real tasks and measured in practical competencies. One-off workshops can raise awareness, but lasting value is in skills that people can use in their day-to-day work.

For a civil servant, this could mean using AI to speed up and improve the quality of public services; for an SME, it may mean reducing repetitive administrative work or serving customers more efficiently. Teachers could use carefully designed tools to support learning and healthcare professionals could work with patient information to save time.

AI’s real value tends to be in practical tools that help people do their jobs better. These use cases may receive less attention, but they are often where economic gains begin. The approach we take at MEXC is that useful AI should make a familiar task easier to complete without adding another layer of complexity.

Pakistan’s AI ambitions also need to be understood in the context of the country’s employment challenges. It needs to generate between 25 million and 30 million jobs over the next decade as millions of young people enter the workforce.

AI will not solve Pakistan’s employment challenge by itself. It can still help companies become more productive, support new businesses and give workers useful tools. The real impact will depend on how widely those tools are available. The race Pakistan needs to win is not for the largest model. It is for the moment a shopkeeper in Multan, a teacher in Quetta and a clerk in Karachi all reach for the same tool without thinking twice.

The countries building the biggest models may not benefit most from AI. And those making these tools reliable, affordable and useful in everyday life will.

Pakistan has already made its ambition clear. Build the grid, the broadband, and the skills and the models will take care of themselves. That is the work Pakistan has left to do.

The writer is the CEO of MEXC.

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 24, 2026 at 9:52am

Smartphones and AI are transforming Pakistan by . However, this rapid shift faces hurdles like the digital gender divide and infrastructure gaps. [1, 2, 3]

Smartphone Adoption

Smartphones are the primary gateway to the internet in Pakistan, accounting for over 80% of device-wise internet usage. [1]

• Financial Inclusion: Mobile wallets and apps are bringing millions of unbanked citizens into the formal economy. [1, 2, 3, 4]
• Income Growth: In rural areas, mobile and internet technology access has been shown to increase agricultural income efficiency significantly. [1]
• Nomophobia: Increased device reliance has introduced challenges, including sleep disruptions and rising "nomophobia" (anxiety about being without one's phone). [1]
• Gender Gap: Women in Pakistan are notably less likely to own a mobile phone, which limits their participation in the digital economy. [1]

Artificial Intelligence Integration

AI is rapidly weaving into Pakistan's economic and educational sectors. [1, 2]

• Education: Pioneering programs like the Rehan School use AI and podcasts to replace traditional textbooks and personalize learning.
• Economy & Agriculture: AI is being leveraged for precision farming, fraud detection in banks, and boosting IT/software export earnings.
• National Policy: The launch of the National AI Policy is targeting gaps in administrative data and providing a framework to support the growing network of startups and digital skills programs like DigiSkills.
• Challenges: Successful adoption is often slowed by low digital literacy, infrastructural deficits, and data privacy concerns. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

If you'd like to explore this further, I can provide details on:

• Digital skills training programs available for youth in Pakistan
• The impact of AI on a specific industry (like agriculture or banking)
• How the National AI Policy regulates tech adoption

Comment by Riaz Haq on June 29, 2026 at 10:45am

Pakistan Plans to Boost LPG Imports and Mulls Cheaper Oil Supply from Iran


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Pakistan-Plans-t...



Pakistan will raise its imports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from Iran and considers the idea of importing cheaper crude oil from the Islamic Republic, Pakistani Minister of Petroleum, Ali Pervaiz Malik, has said.

Pakistan, which is a key mediator in the U.S.-Iran negotiations, has kept close relations with Iran throughout the latest Middle East crisis, and has relied on negotiating directly with Iran safe passage of LNG carriers from Qatar bound for Pakistan during the crisis.

Now that the U.S. has waived the sanctions on Iranian petroleum sales until August 21, Pakistan is considering the potential of importing crude and boost LPG imports from Iran.

“Our relationship with Iran is one of brotherhood and close neighborliness, and I believe we should make the most of our mutual capabilities,” Minister Malik was quoted as saying by Iranian media.

According to Pakistani news reports, Malik said that Pakistan was “considering” buying cheaper oil and gas from Iran.

The buying crude from Iran, at discounted prices, could generate savings for Pakistan’s oil import bill, to the tune of between $170 million and $340 million assuming up to 20% of Pakistani petroleum purchases will be made at discounts to international benchmarks, according to the minister.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis and the halt of oil and gas supplies from key Middle Eastern producers, on which Pakistan depends for its petroleum needs, have created an energy crisis in the South Asian country.

The most difficult phase of the crisis has already peaked, and “Good times are coming now,” the Pakistani minister was quoted as saying on Sunday.

Still, Pakistan is looking at how fast (or slow) traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is recovering to manage its energy supplies.

In one of the latest signs that the country isn’t leaving the spot LNG market yet, Pakistan’s state LNG importer is urgently seeking to procure an LNG cargo for delivery this week as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains volatile amid persistent threats to tankers and reignited U.S.-Iran tensions.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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