Comment by Riaz Haq on July 1, 2026 at 8:21am

Pakistan Household Survey HIES 2024-25 Raises More Questions Than It Answers


Recently released HIES 2024-25 household integrated economic survey by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) raises more questions than it answers. For example, it shows that Pakistani households are buying lower amounts of basic food ingredients like wheat, meat and eggs in the last four years, implying that people are eating less to cover other expenses, like electricity and gas. But it doesn't explain why the households have reported significantly lower purchases of these items than production reported recently by the PBS. What is the source of this discrepancy? Is the data flawed? Or, is it missing a new trend toward less home cooking? Is the young urbanized population buying more prepared foods? Are they ordering out more often using ubiquitous food delivery services? Let us try and understand it in more detail.

https://www.riazhaq.com/2026/01/pakistan-household-survey-hies-2024...

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 3, 2026 at 9:38am

Can Technology And Skills Change Pakistan’s Growth Story? – OpEd
July 2, 2026 0 Comments
By Ali Mehar


https://www.eurasiareview.com/02072026-can-technology-and-skills-ch...


Pakistan’s future will not be decided just by the size of its problems, only by how seriously it turns its strengths into national power. For decades, the country has been described through crisis, debt, energy shortages, climate vulnerability, weak productivity, and governance gaps. These challenges are still real and they cannot be wished away. However, there is another Pakistan showing up too: younger, more connected, more entrepreneurial, more digitally aware and increasingly mindful about sustainable development. The real chance now is to match this human energy with technology, clean power and modern farming practices.

Pakistan’s demographic picture gives it this kind of unusual, quiet advantage. Over 60 percent of Pakistan’s people are below age 30. That “youth bulge” can turn into a drag, if they’re left without work and without proper training. Or it can be, sort of the most reliable engine of growth, if they’re given practical know-how and tied into global markets. With more than 100 million internet users, Pakistan already has the basic digital floor to widen online work, technology exports, e-commerce, remote services, and even new kinds of digital entrepreneurship. So the mission is not really to argue that Pakistan has talent. The real challenge is organizing that talent into something like a productive economic force.

The rise of IT and freelancing basically shows what can happen when young Pakistanis get connected to opportunity. Technology exports hovering around US$4.2 billion during the first eleven months of fiscal year 2025–26 signals a big change in how the economy is moving. And IT exports aren’t only a few figures sitting on a balance sheet. They’re the software houses, startups, coders, designers, AI specialists, cloud engineers, and business process professionals earning income from international clients. In a country that’s often under strain due to foreign exchange shortages, every dollar made through knowledge-driven exports helps reinforce economic resilience.

Freelancing has become this more visible sign of the whole transformation, like you can actually see it now. Pakistani freelancers bringing in roughly US$1.6 billion during the first eleven months of FY2025–26 suggests that the digital economy is cracking open doors beyond the usual job arrangement. This matters, a lot, for a country where government-sector positions are limited and the private sector still does not take in enough people. Freelancing lets young folks monetize abilities from homes, small towns, universities and co working spaces, sort of in a low barrier way. It also gives women and students a flexible route toward income, especially when movement is hard, social barriers are real, or local hiring is just not there.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 10, 2026 at 7:21pm

The following is a fintech and wider digital economic development view of the South Asian nation of Pakistan in 2026.

By Richie Santosdiaz

https://thefintechtimes.com/fintech-landscape-of-pakistan-in-2026/

Pakistan’s fintech story cannot be separated from the country’s wider economic challenges. For years, Pakistan has faced recurring balance-of-payments pressures, high inflation, currency volatility, fiscal constraints and the difficult task of expanding formal economic participation across a population of more than 240 million people. These structural pressures have shaped almost every part of the economy, including financial services.

That is why fintech in Pakistan matters. It is not simply about digital wallets, payment apps or startup valuations. It is about whether technology can help make one of South Asia’s largest economies more efficient, more inclusive and more formalised.

“Is Fintech the Key to Economic Revival in Pakistan?”was written by me and it highlighted how fintech could support financial inclusion, digital payments, small and medium enterprise (SME) finance, remittances and broader economic recovery. That argument remains highly relevant today, particularly as Pakistan continues trying to move more economic activity into formal and digital channels.

Pakistan’s economic scale is significant. Pakistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) stood at around $371.6billion in 2024, while GDP per capita was approximately shy of $1,500. The economy is supported by agriculture, textiles, manufacturing, services, remittances, construction, telecommunications and a large informal sector, all according to the World Bank. Karachi remains the country’s financial centre, Lahore is a major commercial and technology hub, and Islamabad serves as the political and regulatory capital.

Yet Pakistan’s biggest fintech opportunity may lie outside its formal banking system. Millions of people remain underbanked or financially excluded. The World Bank’s Global Findex Database continues to highlight the importance of account ownership, digital payments and mobile-enabled finance in expanding financial inclusion globally. In Pakistan, the gap between population size and formal financial usage remains one of the most important development challenges facing the sector.

This is where digital finance can have an outsized impact. A bank branch-based model alone cannot serve Pakistan’s entire population efficiently. Geography, income levels, informality and documentation barriers all limit traditional banking reach. Digital wallets, agent networks, mobile accounts and instant payments therefore offer a more scalable path to inclusion.

Payments are the clearest example. Pakistan has spent the past several years building the foundations for a more digital payments economy. The State Bank of Pakistan’s Raast Instant Payment System has become one of the country’s flagship financial infrastructure initiatives, designed to enable low-cost, real-time digital payments between individuals, businesses and government entities. The creation of Raast Payments Pakistan Pvt. Ltd. further signals the central bank’s ambition to institutionalise and expand the country’s digital payments infrastructure.

This infrastructure matters because payments sit at the heart of formalisation.

When salaries, merchant transactions, remittances, utility bills and government payments move digitally, they create records. Those records can support credit scoring, taxation, consumer protection and better financial planning. In a country where cash and informality remain deeply embedded, digital payments can gradually change the structure of economic participation.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 26, 2026 at 1:49pm

Pakistan Sees Sudden 6x Jump in Credit Card ATM Transactions
By Business Desk | Published Jul 26, 2026 | 8:06 pm

https://propakistani.pk/2026/07/26/pakistan-sees-sudden-6x-jump-in-...

Pakistan’s credit card market recorded its largest-ever quarterly growth, with the number of cards in circulation jumping by 900,000 in just three months, according to Gallup Pakistan’s Digital Analytics Dashboard based on data from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

The total number of credit cards increased from 2.2 million in FY25 to 3.1 million in Q1 FY26 (July-September 2025), up by 44 percent.

The addition exceeds the total net growth recorded over the previous six years, during which the credit card base rose from 1.6 million to 2.2 million.

The surge coincided with a sharp rise in credit card usage. SBP data shows the value of credit card transactions at ATMs increased nearly sixfold during the same quarter.

Despite the unprecedented jump, no major bank, fintech, or financial institution publicly announced a large-scale credit card issuance campaign during the period.

The increase could be linked to a major card issuance, a regulatory reclassification of certain card products, or the launch of new credit-based payment products. SBP hasn’t revealed anything on this so far.

Debit cards continue to dominate Pakistan’s payment landscape, accounting for around 90% of the country’s 61.3 million payment cards, while credit cards represent about 4 percent.

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Credit card growth in Pakistan is experiencing a sudden shift, jumping from a stagnant base of 2.2 million to 3.1 million cards in late 2025, driven by rising fintech adoption and digital banking integrations. Despite this growth, total penetration remains exceptionally low relative to the country's population. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Market Statistics and Recent Surge
Base Expansion: Stagnated around 1.6 million to 2.2 million cards between FY20 and FY25, before a single-quarter jump to 3.1 million in Q1 FY26 (July–September 2025). [1]
Transaction Activity: ATM credit card transaction values spiked nearly 6x during the Q1 FY26 surge, confirming active utilization rather than passive issuance. [1]
Overall Market Share: Debit cards still heavily dominate, making up roughly 90% of Pakistan’s 61.3 million total payment cards. [1]

Comment by Riaz Haq 3 hours ago

@Manoj_216

Last year, Q1 2025-26:
Nominal GDP was ₹86 trillion (everyone celebrated)
It was then conveniently revised down to ₹80 trillion (almost a 7% downward revision) (after celebrations were over).

This quarter, Q1 2026-27:
Nominal GDP is ₹88.27 trillion rupees.
This may also get conveniently revised down later after the celebrations are over.

Compare unrevised (₹86 trillion) vs unrevised (₹88.27 trillion), we have grown only by 2.6%

Oops! too much of a number game going on !

https://x.com/manoj_216/status/2094990270337290344?s=46&t=Uy6jy...

Comment by Riaz Haq 3 hours ago

India's 20 years of GDP misestimation: New evidence

Abhishek Anand (Madras Institute of Development Studies), Josh Felman (JH Consulting) and Arvind Subramanian (PIIE)
Working Paper 26-3
March 2026
Photo Credit: REUTERS/Amit Dave


https://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/2026/indias-20-yea...


KEY TAKEAWAYS

India’s annual economic growth during the boom years between 2005 and 2011 may have been underestimated by about 1–1½ percentage points on average, and subsequent growth between 2012 and 2023 may have been overestimated by about 1½-2 percentage points.
The first methodological issue leading to the misestimation is that the economy’s formal sector has been used as a proxy for the vast informal sector, even though the latter was disproportionately hit after 2015 by demonetization, the introduction of the goods and services tax, and the COVID-19 pandemic.
The second methodological issue causing misestimation is that the deflators for many sectors have been based on commodity prices, which have moved sharply relative to others.
Body
New evidence suggests that India misestimated its annual economic growth rate during the past two decades. It appears that the Indian economy did not grow at a stable rate over the past two decades, as was earlier estimated, but rather boomed during the early 2000s, then decelerated after the global financial crisis and subsequent domestic shocks. Methodological revisions made in February 2026, following commendable consultations, aimed to address the challenges identified.

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