PakAlumni Worldwide: The Global Social Network

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Can Pakistan Scale Up Affordable Energy Availability to Achieve Prosperity?

Pakistan is currently classified as a lower middle-income country, with the ambition to become a high-income country. Its policymakers now recognize that no country has transitioned from middle-income to high-income status without generating substantial electricity at affordable rates. The link between energy and prosperity has been well-established since the advent of the Industrial Revolution. The AI Revolution has further reinforced it. Can Pakistan make the transition to a high-income country by developing indigenous energy resources to minimize dependence on expensive imports amid geopolitical uncertainty?

Pakistan Developing Indigenous Energy Sources

All high-income countries are high-energy countries. Empirical data from the Energy for Growth Hub confirms that high-income, low-energy nations do not exist. A strong positive correlation (R² ≈ 0.83) ties per capita income and electricity consumption globally, meaning economic development requires scaling up energy availability.

Electricity-Income Correlation. Source: ToddMoss Substack

Recognizing the importance of scaling up electricity generation, Pakistan is undergoing a major transformation in its power sector. Driven by the need to combat a volatile import bill and stabilize its finances, the nation is aggressively shifting away from expensive imported fuels toward a mix grounded in clean energy (solar, hydro, nuclear and wind) and domestic coal.

Currently, about one-half of the installed base consists of clean and low-carbon sources while the other half relies on fossil fuels. The actual power generation relies more heavily on clean sources. For example, hydropower contributes 36.6% of total generation, while coal generates 26.3% overall, split between local Thar coal and imported coal. Nuclear adds14.3% of the output and solar and wind account for approximately 4.3% on-grid, though private behind-the-meter installations have surged exponentially in recent years.

To reduce dependence on fossil fuel imports, Pakistan is tapping into the massive lignite coal reserves in the Thar Desert. Projects operating in Block I and Block II utilize domestic mining to provide reliable baseload power without draining foreign exchange reserves.

Major hydropower facilities like the Tarbela 5th Extension and ongoing mega-projects like Dasu and Diamer-Bhasha are expanding generation potential past 11,600+ MW. The Karachi Nuclear Power Plant (KANUPP K-2 and K-3) reactors supply crucial emissions-free base-load power to the southern grid network. Prompted by steep tariff hikes, private rooftop solar installations continue to surge across the industrial, agricultural and household sectors.

Pakistan has no choice but to make electricity cheap and plentiful to increase the productivity of its people. It is the best way for it to transition from a lower middle-income country to a high-income country.

Comment by Riaz Haq 3 hours ago: Ironclad
@NavCom24
#BREAKING: Pakistan has successfully completed dome placement at its largest nuclear power plant Chashma-5 ahead of schedule.

Plant is now 75% complete and will start operations in 2030, producing 1,200MW.

https://x.com/NavCom24/status/2120191909041938572?a=ASDELwHUfdlC5Hb...

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C-5 project will have generation capacity of 1,200 megawatts

https://www.brecorder.com/news/amp/40448280

The Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) had achieved a major milestone at the Chashma Nuclear Power Plant Generating Station with the successful dome placement of the Chashma-5 (C-5) Nuclear Power Plant, the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) said on Tuesday.

“C-5 Project is a manifestation of clean and emissions-free electricity generation in Pakistan,” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said at the ceremony also attended by Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir.

The C-5 project will have a generation capacity of 1,200 megawatts (MW). The plant is expected to commence electricity generation in September 2030.

Dome placement is a construction milestone in building a nuclear power plant. It refers to the installation of the large, dome-shaped roof of the reactor building, which houses the nuclear reactor and its associated equipment. In simple terms, it means the main reactor building has reached an important stage of structural completion.

PM Shehbaz highlighted that nuclear energy accounted for around 16.6% of the country’s electricity generation despite representing only 8.6% of its installed capacity, with its share of electricity generation rising to 26% during winter.

PAEC chairman highlighted that nuclear power continued to play an important role in Pakistan’s energy security, providing reliable and low-carbon electricity.

“Pakistan’s nuclear power plants are safely and efficiently generating 3,530 MW of electricity and helping avoid approximately 15 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions annually,” he said.

The prime minister commended Chinese partners, saying the event reaffirmed Pak-China All-Weather friendship and commitment to expanding strategic cooperation in economic, security, and development sectors.

“We must increasingly harness our resources and human capital to build a Pakistan that is economically stronger, energy-secure and environmentally responsible,” he said.

Once operational, Chashma-5 is expected to provide affordable, low-carbon and sustainable electricity to Pakistan’s national grid, further expanding the role of nuclear energy in the country’s power generation mix.

China has remained a key partner in Pakistan’s civil nuclear energy programme, including the development of the Chashma nuclear power complex.

The C-5 unit is located along the bank of the Indus River in Chashma, Mianwali District, Punjab, Pakistan.

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