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Gold, Copper and Rare Earths at Pakistan's Reko Diq Could Exceed $500 Billion

The sale of Reko Diq mining rights is currently being reviewed by Pakistan Supreme Court in response to allegations of lack of transprarency. The entire discussion in the courtroom is primarily centered on valuations and estimates of traditional metals like gold and copper. The second topic of discussion in the apex court is about the absence of any contract provisions for development of downstream job-creating industries to extract these metals.

What is conspicuously absent from the debate is the potential for extraction at Reqo Diq of rare earth elements that are even more precious and in much greater and growing demand for the latest high-tech equipment and batteries for all-electric autos, communications, and other applications than traditional precious metals like gold and silver. It is the estimates of these rare earths at Reqo Diq that could put the value of the contract at considerably more than the current best estimates of $500 billion for copper and gold.

Recent trade disputes between China and its major trading partners in the United States, Europe and Japan have been the result of China restricting rare earth exports.

A current production Toyota Prius nickel metal hydride battery pack uses 30 kilograms of nickel, 2 kilograms of cobalt and 12 kilograms of lanthanum because the active hydrogen storage alloy in the battery is either LaNi4.5Co0.5 or (Ce, La, Nd, Pr)Ni5. The Prius assembly plant in Japan has so far used one and 1.5 million rechargeable nickel metal hydride battery packs and achieved with them some of the lowest numbers of service issues ever seen in the OEM automotive industry. In fact most of the original Prius rechargeable nickel metal hydride battery packs have exceeded their 8-year 100,000 mile warranty and are still functioning, according to Resource Investor website.

China controls 95% of the world’s supply of rare earth elements, a class of ores used not just in Toyota Prius electric motors and batteries but in a wide range of high-technology applications, from sonar systems to wind turbines, mobile phones and fluorescent lights.

All this gives China an extraordinary - some might say unfair - advantage to lead the race to dominate the manufacture of cutting-edge technology, according to the Wall Street Journal. Even before any major technology partnership announcements, there are reports that the legendary US investor Warren Buffet is investing in BYD, an obscure Chinese battery, mobile phone, and electric car company.

Here is how an expert who asked not to be named explained the mining potential in Balochistan:

"The Pegmatite rock that covers much of Balochistan (and other parts of Pakistan as well) has several different gems, in it which have been mined for a long time. These are easy to visualize as they differ in color from the rest of the rock, and can be removed with a small geologist's hammer. Pegmatite, though, also contains uranium which can be separated using a Geiger Counter, and rare metals and rare earths. Some of these like Lithium can be separated relatively easily. Others like Samarium and Dysprosium are vastly more difficult to separate because you need X-Ray equipment to help identify them. Also, their presence is very small - that is why they are classed as "rare." The presence of many of these metals was not known to science until recently and until the Japanese began to use them in electronics, hardly any effort was made to mine them. Now, of course, they are all the rage because they have been found especially useful in the latest "green" generation equipment as well as in defense and other applications. Indeed, until China banned their sale to Japan, no one really even bothered about them - it suited the Japanese to remain quiet as they were getting very good prices for these resources from an unaware Chinese, and the same thing is now happening in other parts of the world, in Pakistan in this case.

Much of the testing that is involved here is difficult and requires very advanced technical equipment, and even methods like gas spectrometry etc may not help identify materials that exist in extremely small percentages in soil or rock. In India for example, some of these metal reserves were not known until the USGS first and then the Russians helped analyze soil and rocks across the country. If nothing else, the Indians formed a government owned company called Indian Rare earths Limited which comes under the Atomic Energy Commission and is directly under the Prime Minister of India. They do seem to have handled the conservation and exploitation of these reserves far better than is being done in Pakistan."

Given the potential for tremendous mineral wealth at Reqo Diq, Saindak and other similar sites in Balochistan and elsewhere in Pakistan, it is extremely important for the Supreme Court to insist on an independent panel of experts to evaluate it, and to base court orders on the findings of such panel. How the Supreme Court tackles these issues now will have a significant impact on the future well-being of Pakistan in terms of the availablity of public funds for spending on education, health care and other badly needed human development projects in Balochistan and elsewhere in the country.

Click here for a video clip from GeoTV on Reko Diq.

Auto Industry Prospects in India, Pakistan and China

Comment by Riaz Haq on September 11, 2025 at 8:12pm: Reko Diq project cost rises to $7.7bn, rail link financing planned - Profit by Pakistan Today

https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2025/09/10/reko-diq-project-cos...

Revised $7.7bn plan includes $350m rail link loan for Port Qasim access, with mining to start in 2025 and full production by 2028, positioning Reko Diq as Pakistan’s biggest mineral venture.

ISLAMABAD: The cost of Pakistan’s flagship Reko Diq gold and copper mining project has increased by $1 billion to $7.7 billion following approvals by the boards of Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL), Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), and Government Holdings Private Limited (GHPL).

The approvals were granted during the companies’ annual general meetings on Wednesday, where shareholders endorsed the revised financial plan. The rise from the earlier $6.7 billion estimate reflects surging global construction costs, lingering supply chain challenges, and additional infrastructure requirements in Balochistan’s rugged terrain. Despite the escalation, stakeholders reaffirmed their commitment to the project, calling it vital for Pakistan’s mineral sector and foreign exchange earnings.

A source privy to the development confirmed the revised figure but noted that the $7.7bn includes contingencies that may not fully materialise, adding that the actual cost could remain closer to $7bn.

The meetings also discussed a financing arrangement through the Reko Diq Mining Company (RDMC) to provide $350 million to Pakistan Railways for the construction of a dedicated railway line connecting the mine to Port Qasim. The funding, to be extended as a loan under a sovereign guarantee from the federal government, will form part of the Main Line-III (ML-3) project. Pakistan Railways would be required to complete the railway track within three years to ensure timely mineral transport.

Mining activity at Reko Diq is scheduled to begin before the end of 2025, with commercial production expected by 2028. Over its projected lifespan, the project is anticipated to generate about $90 billion in revenues, making it one of the most significant mining ventures in Pakistan’s history.

Industry sources said the simultaneous approval of the revised financial plan and the commitment to rail financing marked an important milestone in moving the long-delayed project towards execution. They added that the railway link would address a critical logistical challenge while reducing immediate fiscal pressure on the federal government.

Comment by Riaz Haq on October 4, 2025 at 10:12am: Pakistan courts US with pitch for new Arabian Sea port ( at Pasni for critical minerals export)

https://www.ft.com/content/9f7c7bf2-76ed-4eb6-bb9a-f628d05b0068

Late last month, Pakistan shipped a modest first consignment of fewer than two tonnes of critical and rare earth minerals to USSM that included copper, antimony and neodymium. The price of antimony has soared since Beijing imposed a ban on selling it to the US late last year.

Advisers to Pakistan’s military strongman Asim Munir have approached US officials with an offer to build and run a port on the Arabian Sea that could give Washington a foothold in one of the world’s most sensitive regions. The audacious plan, seen by the Financial Times, envisages American investors developing the seaside fishing town of Pasni as a terminal for access to Pakistan’s critical minerals. Pasni is just 100 miles from Iran and 70 miles from the Pakistani city of Gwadar, which has a China-backed port. The initiative, which is not official policy, reflects how Pakistani officials are exploring ways to capitalise on the sweeping geopolitical upheaval in South Asia of recent months.

The offer has been floated with some US officials, and was shared with Munir ahead of a meeting with Donald Trump in the White House late last month, according to two civilian advisers to the army chief who both asked not to be named. But a senior Trump administration official said the US president and his advisers had not discussed such a proposal.

The scheme is one of several ideas floated publicly and privately by Pakistani officials to maintain momentum with the Trump administration. They include engagement with a Trump-backed crypto venture, deepening co-operation against Afghanistan-based militant group Isis-K, endorsement of his Gaza peace plan and access to critical minerals.

Munir and Trump have forged what US and Pakistani diplomats are referring to as “a bromance” since the American president claimed credit in May for a ceasefire that ended the worst fighting between Pakistan and India in decades.

After two decades of warming ties with India, the US has over the summer publicly sparred with New Delhi. While India has rejected Trump’s claims of involvement in the ceasefire, Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif have publicly thanked him and nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize.

In return, Trump has lavished praise on Pakistan’s army chief. After their latest meeting last month, the White House released pictures of Munir and Sharif presenting the US leader with a display case of mineral samples.

“The whole narrative [of the US-Pakistan] relationship changed after the war,” said one of the advisers, who has been involved in back-channel contacts with the Trump circle for more than a year.

“It was very bad before then. We had not tended the relationship as we should have,” the adviser said. “In the last two decades the Indians occupied the space in the vacuum.”

The proposed port at Pasni would be linked to a new railway to transport minerals from Pakistan’s interior, the advisers said, in particular copper and antimony, a vital ingredient in batteries, fire-retardant and missiles.

A blueprint anticipated the port would cost up to $1.2bn with a proposed financing model that would be a mix of Pakistani federal and US-backed development finance. Advocates of the plan see it as a way of hedging the country’s position on the global stage as it seeks to balance a constellation of diplomatic ties with China, the US, Iran and Saudi Arabia, with which Islamabad signed a security pact last month.

“Pasni’s proximity to Iran and Central Asia enhances US options for trade and security . . . Engagement at Pasni would counterbalance Gwadar . . . and expand US influence in the Arabian Sea and Central Asia,” according to the blueprint.

“China’s Gwadar investments under the Belt and Road Initiative raise dual-use concerns,” it added, in an apparent allusion to US concerns Gwadar could serve as a Chinese naval base, a suggestion denied by Islamabad and Beijing.

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