Comment by Riaz Haq on July 15, 2023 at 1:48pm

#Indian #exports decline for the fourth month in a row to nearly $35 billion this May, down 10.3% from $39 billion in the same period last year, widening the #trade #deficit to a five month high of $22.1 billion. #economy #Modi #BJP

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/exports...

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 15, 2023 at 1:55pm

The Gray Zone of Diplomacy

https://www.thecitizen.in/opinion/the-gray-zone-of-diplomacy-947874

Op Ed By SEEMA MUSTAFA

There has been a huge shift from India’s quiet and mature diplomacy to snarls and threats and attacks. The wording of rebuttals has lost the diplomatic flavour, and hence the firmness associated with India. Counters sound more like desperate, angry utterings than considered policy. This approach might appease some at home, but the world is not taking kindly to it with the international media reports becoming increasingly hostile as a result. The reports sent back by the missions here to their headquarters on a regular basis will reflect the troll attack for instance on former President Barack Obama for speaking out on the human rights situation in India. He was trolled mercilessly for his comments in an interview to an American television channel, with those leading the attack here forgetting that one, he is very close to current President Joe Biden who was hosting Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the time, and the two have worked very closely together under the Barack Presidency.


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In any other time, under another government perhaps, the side shows of diplomacy, hold sway. And worry mandarins in the Foreign Office, as they all know that often governments send out warning signals through the sidelines and expect the targeted country to understand and move towards a course correction. When they do not then relations falter. It was not so long ago that the Union Minister of External Affairs Jaishankar was the blue eyed boy of then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, and spent valuable time and energy in calmly fire fighting diplomatic murmurs on issues such as the civilian nuclear deal with the Americans, Nepal, China of course, and even Russia that was smarting under a cut in defence deals with India. As a result Indian diplomacy was respected, with the capitals across the world engaging, arguing, and working out the fissures directly with New Delhi. Also Read - India Clashes With The Western ‘Establishment’ On Human Rights Even As Govts Appear To Woo It One remembers - after former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee announced the Pokhran nuclear blasts to a stunned press at his residence - walking in for a briefing by the National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra. The entire focus, in the wave of a global attack on India for going nuclear, was on Pakistan with MEA ‘sources’ admitting that if Pakistan followed suit it would help take some of the pressure off. Then diplomat and now Union Minister Hardeep Singh greeted informal questions about the same with a fingers crossed sign, even as he and all concerned diplomats went into high gear to assuage world sentiment. There was no trolling then of course, but even the briefings on were not jingoistic, and a ‘we stand by our decision’ stance was tempered continuously with a ‘we are sure the world will understand.’


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the Biden Administration to read the riot act as it were to New Delhi. That he has not, and instead went out of his way to lay out the proverbial red carpet for PM Modi is significant, but then even the White House had to come out with a strong statement in support of a woman journalist who was also trolled ruthlessly in India for asking an inconvenient question to the Indian Prime Minister. This creates fissures and will make it difficult for President Biden to withstand the pressure at home with equanimity. Particularly if the liberal values that he is expected to uphold in office come under constant attack by those who partners with. ......

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 16, 2023 at 3:51pm

India’s goods exports dropped 22% to hit 8-month low in June - The Hindu

https://www.thehindu.com/business/indias-goods-exports-dropped-22-t...

India's goods exports plummeted 22.02% year-over-year in June to hit an eight-month low of $32.97 billion, while imports fell 17.5% to $53.1 billion, as per data from the Commerce Ministry.

June marked the seventh time in nine months that India’s merchandise exports have declined, but the dip in outbound shipments was the sharpest in this period.

The goods trade deficit for June fell 8.8% from levels seen last June as well as this May, to $20.13 billion. This is the second month in a row that the deficit has been over $20 billion after a four-month streak of lower gaps between imports and exports, but economists aren’t too worried about the scale of the deficit yet relative to last year’s higher gaps.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 17, 2023 at 4:33pm

India needs to grow at 7.6% a year for 25 yrs to be a developed nation -central bank bulletin


https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-needs-grow-76-year-25-yrs...


MUMBAI, July 17 (Reuters) - India will need to grow at a rate of 7.6% annually for the next 25 years to become a developed nation, according to a research paper published by the central bank in its monthly bulletin on Monday.

India's per capita income is currently estimated at $2,500, while it must be more than $21,664 by 2047, as per World Bank standards, to be classified as a high-income country.

"To achieve this target, the required real GDP compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) for India works out to be 7.6% during 2023-24 to 2047-48," according to the study by the Reserve Bank of India's economic research department.

In nominal terms, which includes the impact of inflation, the economy would need to clock a CAGR of 10.6%, said the study, which does not represent the RBI's official view.

"It may, however, be mentioned that the best (nominal growth) India achieved over a period of consecutive 25 years in the past is a CAGR of 8.1% during 1993-94 to 2017-18."

To reach that level of sustained growth, India requires investment in physical capital and reforms across sectors covering education, infrastructure, healthcare and technology, the study said.

The country's industrial and services sector would need to grow at over 13% annually for these 25 years for India to achieve developed economy status, it said.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 17, 2023 at 8:25pm

Over 10,000 MSMEs shut during 2016-2022 period; 96% in past 3 years, shows govt data | The Financial Express

https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/sme/msme-eodb-over-10000-...

Ease of Doing Business for MSMEs: The government has come out with consolidated data on the number of MSMEs closed over the past six years including the Covid period in the country. According to the combined data from the Udyam registration portal and the erstwhile Udyog Aadhaar Memorandum (UAM), 10,067 MSMEs were shut from 2016 to 2022.

Sharing data in the Rajya Sabha on Monday in a written reply to a question on the closure of units, Minister of State for MSMEs Bhanu Pratap Singh Verma noted that 400 MSMEs (4 per cent of total closures) were shut during the 2016-2019 period as per the UAM data. On the other hand, the majority 96 per cent units — 9,667 were shut between 2019 and 2022, according to the UAM and Udyam portal data.

In reply to a separate question on the Covid impact on MSMEs, Verma shared that 2,870 MSMEs registered on the Udyam portal were shut between April 1, 2022, and July 20, 2022, along with employment loss for 19,862 people. Likewise, 6,222 Udyam-registered MSMEs were shut in FY22 with 42,662 people losing jobs. Between July 1, 2020, and March 31, 2021, 175 Udyam units were closed and 724 jobs were lost.

“Closure of MSMEs is certainly a concern for the government for which necessary steps and studies have been undertaken. The closure is one of the reasons cited by units for cancelling their MSME registrations, but the reason for closure is not always mentioned by them. Other reasons for cancelling registrations include stopping the manufacturing of goods or moving to other businesses or they just don’t need the registration anymore,” Ishita Ganguli Tripathy, Additional Development Commissioner, Ministry of MSME told Financial Express Online.

Citing studies by SIDBI, SBI, and others, Tripathy noted that while there have been closures, some of them have been temporary and due to schemes such as Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS), many MSMEs have been able to save employment as well.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 18, 2023 at 7:56am

Engineers Who Built Chandrayaan-3 Launch Pad Weren’t Paid Salaries for Over a Year: Report

https://thewire.in/government/engineers-who-built-chandrayaan-3-lau...


Despite the issue of unpaid salaries, the firm delivered the mobile launching pad and other crucial and complex equipment ahead of schedule in December 2022.

New Delhi: As the world witnessed the historic Chandrayaan-3 lunar mission on July 14, the engineers who built the launch pad are reported to have not received their salaries for over a year now.

The engineers of Heavy Engineering Corporation (HEC) in Ranchi were not being paid for the past 17 months, news agency IANS reported.


Despite the issue of unpaid salaries, the firm delivered the mobile launching pad and other crucial and complex equipment ahead of schedule in December 2022, the report said.

The HEC is a public sector undertaking under the Ministry of Heavy Industries. The firm is located in Ranchi’s Dhurwa area.

Several news outlets have reported about the non-payment of salaries to the company staff for over a year.

Frontline reported in May that some 2,700 workmen and 450 executives had not got their salaries for the past 14 months or so.

In November 2022, IANS had reported that the officers of the company had not received their salary for an entire year and employees for eight-nine months.

It had said that despite having orders worth Rs 1,500 crore from the Indian Space Research Organisation, Ministry of Defence, Railways, Coal India and the steel sector, 80% of the work remains pending due to shortage of funds.

Subhash Chandra, an engineer who was among those who cheered the successful launch of Chandrayaan-3, told the news agency: “The HEC personnel held their heads once again with pride. We are happy that we are partners in such an important project of the country.”

IANS reported, citing sources, that the company requested the Ministry of Heavy Industries several times to provide working capital of Rs 1,000 crore. However, the ministry responded saying that the Union government cannot extend any help.

Moreover, for the last two and a half years, the HEC has not made any permanent appointment for the position of chief managing director, or CMD.

The Chandrayaan-3 was built with a budget of around Rs 600 crore.

Comment by Riaz Haq on July 19, 2023 at 5:22pm

India will soon become third largest economy. Does it matter?Given the depreciating USD, India’s $5tn GDP goal of 2019-20 equals $5.74tn in 2022-23, and at further 3 per cent depreciation, it would need to be $6.65tn in 2027-28. Subhash Chandra Garg

Read more at: https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/india-will-soon-become-third-l...

"When I first visited the US as a Prime Minister, India was the 10th largest economy in the world. Today, India is the 5th largest, and we will be the third largest soon," Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, with pride, in his address to the US Congress on June 23

Read more at: https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/india-will-soon-become-third-l...

India, with GDP of $1.86 trillion, was the ninth largest economy in 2013-14, with Brazil ($2.21 trillion), China ($9.57 trillion), France ($2.81 trillion), Germany ($3.7 trillion), the United Kingdom ($2.79 trillion), Italy ($2.14 trillion), Japan ($5.21 trillion), and the United States ($17.55 trillion) ahead.

It was quite a fortuitous coincidence that the GDP of next four countries — Brazil, Italy, France, and the UK in 2013 — was in a $2-3 trillion band, with India quite close behind. Moreover, except Brazil, all the three European countries had attained very high per capita incomes of $42,603 (France), $43,449 (the UK), and $35,560 (Italy) respectively. Brazil’s lower per capita income of $12,259 was also nearly 10 times India’s per capita income of $1,438.

All high-income countries get into low GDP growth orbit thanks to having attained economic prosperity and falling population, whereas developing countries record higher GDP growth. Unsurprisingly, India, a poor developing country, despite not so impressive growth of about 7 per cent, in current dollars during 2013-2022, moved past these four countries to become the fifth largest. Germany and Japan are also high per capita income countries with declining population.


Germany’s per capita income is $48,438 in 2022, whereas India’s is $2,389. Japan’s case is bizarre. Japan’s GDP was $5.76 trillion in 2010 and only $4.32 trillion in 2022. The IMF projects Germany and Japan’s GDP to be $4.95 trillion and $5.08 trillion respectively in 2027. The IMF projects India’s growth, somewhat optimistically, at 8.72 per cent until 2027-28. If it gets realised, India will move past Germany and Japan that year.

Read more at: https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/india-will-soon-become-third-l...

Excluding small island economies, India’s per capita income of $1,438 in 2013-14 has increased to $2,389 in 2022-23, at a compounded annual growth rate of 5.8 per cent. India’s rank, in terms of per capita income, was the 147th (out of 189) in 2013-14..we have moved to the 141st rank. Since 2014, India has moved ahead of Nicaragua, Uzbekistan, Mauritania, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, and Lao PDR. On the other hand, Bangladesh — India’s ‘poor’ neighbour — has overtaken us. Per capita income of Brazil, Italy, France, and the UK, whose GDP India has overtaken, and Germany and Japan, which we will cross, remain far higher for us to even think of achieving. The conclusion is clear. India will prosper and develop when the per capita income of average Indian will grow to reach higher middle-income levels, if not the high-income level — and not when its GDP becomes the third largest.

(Subhash Chandra Garg is former Finance & Economic Affairs Secretary, and author of ‘The Ten Trillion Dream’ and ‘Explanation and Commentary on Budget 2023-24’.)

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 2, 2023 at 8:08am

Under Hindu Nationalist Leaders, Sectarian Violence Flares in India

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/01/world/asia/india-hindu-muslim-vi...

A gunman who killed Muslim train passengers and a Hindu march that turned riotous underscore how the partisan stances of India’s top Hindu leaders have given license to chaotic elements in the country.

In the early hours of Monday, on a train bound for Mumbai, India’s commercial capital, a police officer took up his service rifle, fatally shot his superior and then killed three unarmed passengers. All three of the passengers were Muslim men, according to Indian news reports.

Audio from cellphone videos of the incident filmed inside the train is muffled, but it sounds as if the officer, Chetan Singh, says in Hindi: “If you want to live in Hindustan, you must vote for Modi and Yogi.” Using an antiquated name for part of South Asia, he appeared to be advocating support for India’s foremost Hindu politicians: Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Yogi Adityanath, the leader of India’s most populous state.

The violence occurred on the same day as a march led by a Hindu nationalist organization in one of the few northern Indian districts in which Muslims are a majority. The rally, which a Hindu vigilante wanted in the murders of several Muslims had promised to join, dissolved into street fighting, which then gave way to a full-blown riot that spread toward Delhi. As shops, vehicles and a mosque were set ablaze, at least five people were killed, including the mosque’s junior imam, the police said.

These scenes — uncoordinated and unrelated, but hardly uncommon in India under Mr. Modi’s tenure — have emerged at an awkward time for the country as it prepares to host the Group of 20 summit in New Delhi in September. Mr. Modi has been promoting an economy-focused “India growth story” around the world and has received leadership accolades in Paris and Washington — a notable achievement given that in 2005 the State Department denied him a visa for nearly a decade over “severe violations of religious freedom” in the wake of massacres in his home state.

Far away from Monday’s violence, ethnic hatred has also been erupting in the northeastern state of Manipur since May. Although religious identity has played a lesser role in the fighting there, the government’s inability to keep the peace between warring groups — in part because it is not seen as an impartial party — has been just as disturbing.

Both Mr. Modi and Mr. Adityanath, and indeed the whole nationalist movement led by Mr. Modi, are widely understood to stand on the same side of any conflict that pits India’s Hindus — who make up almost 80 percent of the country’s population of 1.4 billion — against its Muslims, who make up its largest minority, at roughly 14 percent.

Mr. Adityanath speaks for “law and order” but also talks about “feeding bullets, not biryani” to Muslim troublemakers. And although Mr. Modi tends to be much subtler, on the campaign trail he has said of violent rioters that “we can identify them by their clothes” — meaning the salwar kameez favored by South Asia’s Muslims — and will punish them accordingly.

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 6, 2023 at 2:15pm

How Manipur violence is challenging India’s politics


https://www.vox.com/2023/8/6/23821950/manipur-violence-india-modi-kuki

Modi and the BJP face a no-confidence motion due to brutal conflict.

By Ellen Ioanes


Interethnic violence has grown over the summer in India’s northeastern Manipur state , with reports on Thursday claiming three people had been killed and several homes set on fire. The clashes, between the majority Meitei ethnic group and the Kuki tribal groups risks spilling into neighboring states, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has thus far failed to seriously address the violence or the broader underlying issues of migration and ethnic tensions in the region.

Since May 3, Meitei and Kuki residents of communities in Manipur have engaged in horrific violence including reported rapes, burnings, and decapitations, apparently motivated by the state government’s efforts to extend benefits and jobs once exclusively reserved for Kuki to Meiteis. Over the past three months, the violence has become so extreme that it has triggered a no-confidence motion against Modi’s government this coming week.

Though the proposed motion won’t affect Modi and his Bharatiya Janta Party’s (BJP) grip on power, it will serve two main political purposes: to draw attention to the government’s inaction in containing the conflict as well as other failures and to galvanize the opposition under a new umbrella group.

Interethnic, sectarian, and insurgent violence is not new to India, and Modi’s Hindu nationalist ideology has contributed to the atmosphere of discord, if not outright fueled violence in some cases. The BJP governs Manipur state, and rather than attempting mediation between the largely Hindu Meiteis and Christian Kukis, the state government imposed an internet blackout that was only partially lifted last month.

The no-confidence motion won’t topple Modi’s government and may not even bring relief for the thousands who have fled violence in Manipur — or the many more still living in fear.

Violence in Manipur has become too extreme to ignore

India’s northeastern states — collectively called the “seven sisters” — are remote, often under resourced, and ethnically diverse. Some of these ethnic groups, called Scheduled Tribes, are transitory or share kinships across different states or even into neighboring countries; the Kuki, for example, have ties to ethnic groups in neighboring Myanmar and parts of Bangladesh as well as Mizoram and Assam states.

Because of its remoteness, porous international and state borders, migratory tribal groups, and the political and economic instability of neighboring countries like Bangladesh and Myanmar, northeastern India has seen many interethnic conflicts over the decades and under Modi’s government. In Assam, for example, tensions between ethnic Assamese and Bangladeshi migrants, including those whose families had lived in Assam for decades, have always had a political dimension — which was only exacerbated in 2019 when the federal government essentially declared about 1.9 million Bangladeshis in Assam stateless.

Manipur, like Assam, is poor and under-resourced; and inequality, real or perceived, exacerbates any tensions that already exist.

In Manipur, the Meitei people make up about half of the population, per CNN, and the Kuki make up 25 percent. As Scheduled Tribes, the Kuki have special access to land permits, jobs, and other benefits because they had historically been oppressed and denied access to education and livelihoods.

But a court ruling issued May 3 suggested the Meitei people also be designated as Scheduled Tribes, giving them access to the benefits — and, importantly, land in Mizoram’s hill country— that had previously been set aside for Scheduled Tribes. Kuki and other Scheduled Tribes rallied against the ruling, leading to the statewide suspension of mobile internet services, as well as a “shoot-at-sight” order issued by police governor Anusuiya Uikey to “maintain public order and tranquility,” CNN reported at the time.

Comment by Riaz Haq on August 9, 2023 at 8:01am

#Modi's #Hindutva politics is pushing #India to the brink. World’s most populous country is degenerating into a conflict zone of sectarian violence. #BJP pumping out a steady stream of #Islamophobia & vile dog whistles. #Manipur #Haryana @Planet_Deb
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/09/opinion/india-modi-conflict-zone...

Indian social media is a brutal place, a window on the everyday hatred and violence that has come to colonize the country in the nine years since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government came to power. But the images from the northeastern state of Manipur that began circulating in July were shocking even by those low standards.

A video clip showed two women being sexually assaulted as they were paraded, naked, by a crowd of men who later gang-raped one of them, according to a police complaint. The horrific scene was part of an explosion of ethnic violence since May that has turned the small state into a war zone, killing more than 150 people and displacing tens of thousands.

The state has a long history of ethnic animosities that predate Mr. Modi’s rise. But the fuse for the current unrest in Manipur was lit by the politics of Hindu supremacy, xenophobia and religious polarization championed by his Bharatiya Janata Party.


India is a diverse nation, crisscrossed by religious, ethnic, caste, regional and political fault lines. Since Mr. Modi took office in 2014, his ruling party has torn those asunder with dangerous exclusionary politics intended to charge up the party’s base and advance its goal of remaking India’s secular republic into a majoritarian Hindu state. The repugnant nature of this brand of politics has been clear for some time, but the situation in Manipur shows what’s ahead for India: The world’s most populous country is slowly degenerating into a conflict zone of sectarian violence.

Under Mr. Modi’s government, the state monopoly on violence is being surrendered to extremists and vigilantes. Those targeted by the kind of mob violence that we are seeing in India may conclude that equal rights are no longer guaranteed, that political differences can no longer be peacefully reconciled or fairly mediated and that violence is the only way for them to resist.

The targeting of minorities — particularly Muslims — by right-wing Hindu extremists is now a way of life in many states. Vigilante mobs, who often assemble provocatively in front of mosques, regularly assault Muslims as understaffed and underequipped police fail to intervene. Lynchings and open calls for genocide are common. India now ranks among the top 10 countries at the highest risk of mass killings, according to Early Warning Project, which assesses such risks around the world.

In Manipur, Christians are bearing the brunt as the state’s B.J.P. government stokes the insecurities of the majority ethnic Meitei, who are predominantly Hindu. State leaders have branded the Kuki tribes who populate the hill districts, and who are mostly Christian, as infiltrators from Myanmar, have blamed them for poppy cultivation intended for the drug trade and evicted some of them from their forest habitats. The specific trigger for the current violence was a court ruling in the state in favor of granting the Meitei affirmative action provisions and other benefits that have long been enjoyed by the Kuki and other tribes, which sparked a protest by tribal communities opposed to the ruling. The Manipur government this year also began a citizenship verification drive that infringes on the privacy of Kuki. A similar drive in neighboring Assam state targeting Muslims has already reportedly disenfranchised nearly two million people.

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